How did Varys convince jon connington that griff was Aegon?

[Lord Varys]

@Lost Melnibonean

There is a certain chance that Tyrion might go to Braavos for some reason but little reason that Dany's army/navy would go there. If they did this they would risk losing a lot of ships to say the least.

If the Faceless Men sent an assassin (Arya?) after Dany then things might be different, though. Although an attempt to sneak into the city or fly in there on dragonback to burn down the House of Black and White might be a smarter move. Dany should not be able to challenge the Sealord on his own ground.

7 hours ago, SFDanny said:

I find it very unlikely that Varys or Illyrio can convince Jon Connington that young Griff is really Aegon. Connington has every reason to hate and distrust Varys, who spent years sowing distrust between Aerys and his beloved Prince. If it is just Varys vouching for the pisswater Prince story, then Connington has no reason to take Varys at his word and go through with his deception that Lord Jon stole money from the Golden Company and drank himself to death.

Jon Connington certainly loathes Varys for some reason but we have no reason to believe that this is because Varys sowed mistrust between Rhaegar and Aerys. It could be connected to stuff related to Connington's own dealings with Varys at court, say, how he got the impression that Varys didn't help him prevent his dismissal as Hand and subsequent exile, or something of this sort.

If Connington hated Varys for putting Aerys and Rhaegar against each other there would be no way that Connington would believe even a word Varys was saying. Because any man actually doing that would also have had no possible reason to actually save Rhaegar's son.

I think that is a main problem for the idea that Varys was putting Rhaegar and Aerys against each as well as for the idea that Rhaegar and his friends believed Varys was doing that (because then Connington would believe it, too).

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But the question misses the more important point. It is not just Connington that Varys must convince that Aegon is really Aegon. The key to the whole venture is convincing Prince Doran that Aegon is really Elia's son. And Connington cannot do that.

I'm with you that Varys/Illyrio must have some ace up there sleeve to prove or vouch for Aegon. But I don't think it is Ashara Dayne. And neither do I think he needs all that much to convince Doran Martell.

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He cannot do that because he has no relationship with Doran that would cause the Prince of Dorne to take his word in matters of launching a war for the Iron Throne, and, most importantly Connington is known to have been in exile when the events of smuggling young Aegon out of King's Landing are supposed to have taken place. No matter how firmly Connington is convinced of the story, he is witness to none of it and everyone knows that simple fact.

We know Doran supposedly has a friend at court who feeds him information about plots as secret as Cersei's plan to murder Trystane on the way to KL Who do you think that source is? Who could have known that aside from Varys? Cersei was apparently only involving a very small amount of people in that, not her council and not Taena.

Varys is the best answer, and if he is the source then Doran trusts him at least to a degree. That should make it not so difficult for Doran to be convinced Aegon is real.

Spoiler

Keep in mind that Connington invades the Stormlands and contacts Doran without first talking to Varys about this.

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So has Varys and Illyrio constructed this elaborate plot based on the idea Prince Doran will instead accept the Spider's word that Aegon is really Aegon? Of course not. Whatever Varys is he is aware of what others think of him. They can't believe Doran will just accept Varys word and send his troops to war.

The plan wasn't to accept anybody's word. The plan (at least at a point) was to draw Dorne into a Targaryen restoration of some sort, either one involving Viserys/Drogo/Dany (with Aegon coming later or - for some strange reason that doesn't make much sense - join them) or with Aegon-Dany invading Westeros together with a bunch of dragons. Dorne would have not other choice but join them.

And Varys might still see to it that Dorne joins the war. He could ensure they learn that Gregor Clegane yet lives, slapping Doran in the face yet again, not to mention that Lady Nym - assuming she ever gets to the capital - could easily enough suffer the same fate as Kevan and Pycelle in the Red Keep (this time with evidence implicating the Tyrells.

Keep in mind that Varys and Illyrio have no clue about the secret marriage pact between Willem Darry and Oberyn Martell involving Viserys and Arianne. They have no clue that Doran intended to marry Dany to Quentyn. And it is this whole plan that makes Doran cautious right now. He wants to know whether Dany/Quentyn are involved in this whole thing or not. If he had had no plan of his own he most certainly would have been much more receptive to the Aegon invasion as an opportunity for revenge. And even more so if Aegon and Dany had shown up riding a bunch of dragons.

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The only way this plot works is if there is someone whom Doran trusts who can vouch for the smuggling of Aegon out of King's Landing and for his whereabouts for the first five years of his life before Connington comes into it. It has to be someone with access to Rhaegar's family who could disappear with the babe for those five years. In short, it has to have as witness, telling the truth or not, the Lady Ashara Dayne. This plot only makes sense if Varys has Ashara ready to step forward from her disguise as Septa Lemore and persuade the Martells Aegon is Aegon.

Spoiler

Or it turns out that things will fall to some other proofs and Aegon's ability to seduce Arianne. She will make the decision what to do should she ever meet Aegon, not Doran.

 

5 hours ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

Well,

  Hide contents

As to Storm's End, Aegon holds it. Now the Golden Company has to beat Mace, and well, Doran has already delivered his heir into Aegon's power. Of course, there's always Trystane.  

 

If the Golden Company were as stupid as push that 'advantage' they would just find themselves crushed between the Dornishmen and the Tyrell army.

5 hours ago, SFDanny said:

Now, I would agree with you if we were talking about a plot that had picked up strength enough to allow for Aegon to win. In such a case we have people who don't care about the truth, but are interested in getting part of the spoils. When last we heard of Aegon and the Golden Company we have them taking lightly held castles by surprise, and hoping to take Storm's End. Even if the do accomplish the latter, the odds are very much stacked against them, unless Doran vouches for him, and many other lords turn their cloaks. There is no bandwagon that everyone wants to jump on to get an easy payday, regardless of who Aegon really is.

There is actually a pretty good chance that even some pretender with a far-fetched origin story like Aegon can win the throne in the present political climate. Things are fucked up hard in Westeros and nobody likes the people in power nor expects them to be able to restore order and peace.

A Targaryen prince looking the part should only be able to draw the many Targaryen loyalists to his banner (regardless how competent a commander he is) but also to serve as a figurehead/common denominator for everybody in the Realm who is unhappy with the present situation.

Aegon could very well become the Jaehaerys I to the cacophony of little Maegors that are plaguing the Realm right now. If things suck people look back to the good old days for inspiration and the prospect that Rhaegar's little son might have returned (from the dead) should be able to make use of this.

Even Viserys III should have been able to conquer the throne under the present circumstances. People would see only the Targaryen name and not really care about the man who bears the name, just as they usually do. A Targaryen is not a Blackfyre. Daemon III Blackfyre was apparently pretty much a joke. But Prince Aegon Targaryen has the chance to win support for his cause all across the Realm, and he certainly will do after he has declared himself. Even if he lost a few battles he could still keep his campaign as long as his army is not crushed and he is not captured or killed.

[aryagonnakill#2]

18 hours ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

Malora is from House Hightower. 

Ah, I misunderstood, I thought you were identifying Malora as Tyenes mother.  I guess my feeling on her would be the same as Wenda.  I've read the books 5 times and forgot who she was.

[Lost Melnibonean]

22 minutes ago, aryagonnakill#2 said:

Ah, I misunderstood, I thought you were identifying Malora as Tyenes mother.  I guess my feeling on her would be the same as Wenda.  I've read the books 5 times and forgot who she was.

The reason why Tyene's mother as Lemore is so intriguing is that Arianne would probably trust the mother of her BFF. And Malora would be really cool, because it would suggest that one of Westeros's most powerful houses has been in on the plot for a long time. I'm not sure what Ashara and Wenda would do for the plot. 

[aryagonnakill#2]

6 minutes ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

The reason why Tyene's mother as Lemore is so intriguing is that Arianne would probably trust the mother of her BFF. And Malora would be really cool, because it would suggest that one of Westeros's most powerful houses has been in on the plot for a long time. I'm not sure what Ashara and Wenda would do for the plot. 

Ashara, as a Dornish noble could probably convince Arianne as well, and could definitely add some info about the TOJ and Jon.  As to Wenda I agree.

I don't think there is enough info to rule out anyone, or fully embrace anyone.

[Masha]

 

On 8/27/2016 at 1:09 PM, SFDanny said:

I find it very unlikely that Varys or Illyrio can convince Jon Connington that young Griff is really Aegon. Connington has every reason to hate and distrust Varys, who spent years sowing distrust between Aerys and his beloved Prince. If it is just Varys vouching for the pisswater Prince story, then Connington has no reason to take Varys at his word and go through with his deception that Lord Jon stole money from the Golden Company and drank himself to death.

But the question misses the more important point. It is not just Connington that Varys must convince that Aegon is really Aegon. The key to the whole venture is convincing Prince Doran that Aegon is really Elia's son. And Connington cannot do that.

He cannot do that because he has no relationship with Doran that would cause the Prince of Dorne to take his word in matters of launching a war for the Iron Throne, and, most importantly Connington is known to have been in exile when the events of smuggling young Aegon out of King's Landing are supposed to have taken place. No matter how firmly Connington is convinced of the story, he is witness to none of it and everyone knows that simple fact.

So has Varys and Illyrio constructed this elaborate plot based on the idea Prince Doran will instead accept the Spider's word that Aegon is really Aegon? Of course not. Whatever Varys is he is aware of what others think of him. They can't believe Doran will just accept Varys word and send his troops to war.

The only way this plot works is if there is someone whom Doran trusts who can vouch for the smuggling of Aegon out of King's Landing and for his whereabouts for the first five years of his life before Connington comes into it. It has to be someone with access to Rhaegar's family who could disappear with the babe for those five years. In short, it has to have as witness, telling the truth or not, the Lady Ashara Dayne. This plot only makes sense if Varys has Ashara ready to step forward from her disguise as Septa Lemore and persuade the Martells Aegon is Aegon.

I can understand the similarities between Septa Lemore and Ashara Dayne, but I just can't understand explanations towards her justifications towards her doing that.

Septa Lemore=Ashara Dayne can only play out if Aegon is real deal otherwise it makes no sense.

I can find no reasons for her to claim a fake boy with no relations to her to be a real-thing and basically lie to everyone.

And no, I don't believe that either Illyrio and Varys would go all these lengths for her son with zero relations to them.

On 8/27/2016 at 2:18 PM, bent branch said:

What extreme appeal to emotions? Isn't that your schtick? JonCon is so grief stricken that he would believe anything someone tells him, even people he hates and distrusts. That seems to be what you're trying to sell.

If you have seen a three-year-old child take leave of their grandparents with, "So long, assholes!" you would know that small children make really shitty co-conspirators. You can't be sure of what they know and what they will say. The examples you give are where someone took a child and kept them, reinforcing the story for years. In the case of Aegon, they gave him to someone else. Their "training" of Aegon would have had to have been flawless in order for Aegon not to give the game away. I think that is unlikely.

If JonCon spent additional 5 years with Golden Company before being introduced to fAegon, the boy would be 6 to 8 yrs old by then.

[Masha]

On 8/28/2016 at 8:26 AM, aryagonnakill#2 said:

Ashara, as a Dornish noble could probably convince Arianne as well, and could definitely add some info about the TOJ and Jon.  As to Wenda I agree.

I don't think there is enough info to rule out anyone, or fully embrace anyone.

I admit being sympathetic towards Ashara who was always described in good terms (unlike say Rhaegar), but while I can believe her confirming that Aegon is real, if its true, or running a con to protect her own child. I find it hard to believe that she will spill everything about TOJ to Arianne, out of nowhere, whom she neither knows nor trusts. And if she is running a con with Varys, unless she became a manipulative and nasty person like Cersei, I will find it hard to believe that she will disclose anything about TOJ and Jon to Varys or Illyrio who will act against Jon immediately since he present a clear-and-present danger to their plans as the real-deal.. (If she knows anything other than hearsay)

 

 

[SFDanny]

19 minutes ago, Masha said:

 

I can understand the similarities between Septa Lemore and Ashara Dayne, but I just can't understand explanations towards her justifications towards her doing that.

Septa Lemore=Ashara Dayne can only play out if Aegon is real deal otherwise it makes no sense.

I can find no reasons for her to claim a fake boy with no relations to her to be a real-thing and basically lie to everyone.

And no, I don't believe that either Illyrio and Varys would go all these lengths for her son with zero relations to them.

If JonCon spent additional 5 years with Golden Company before being introduced to fAegon, the boy would be 6 to 8 yrs old by then.

Which would argue that either Aegon is real, or there is a part of this history that is unknown and would explain why Lady Ashara would help put an imposter on the Iron Throne. I'm inclined to the latter, but I will say this much. I think the need for revenge would likely figure heavily in as her motive. Perhaps guilt as well.

[Masha]

1 minute ago, SFDanny said:

Which would argue that either Aegon is real, or there is a part of this history that is unknown and would explain why Lady Ashara would help put an imposter on the Iron Throne. I'm inclined to the latter, but I will say this much. I think the need for revenge would likely figure heavily in as her motive.

Revenge towards who - Starks? Targaeryens? Lannisters? Martells? I mean she got the raw deal but the blame can be spread around

 

 

 

 

 

[Lost Melnibonean]

47 minutes ago, Masha said:

 

I can understand the similarities between Septa Lemore and Ashara Dayne, but I just can't understand explanations towards her justifications towards her doing that.

Septa Lemore=Ashara Dayne can only play out if Aegon is real deal otherwise it makes no sense.

I can find no reasons for her to claim a fake boy with no relations to her to be a real-thing and basically lie to everyone.

And no, I don't believe that either Illyrio and Varys would go all these lengths for her son with zero relations to them.

Good points. Tyene's mum and the Mad Maid seem more likely. 

[SFDanny]

4 minutes ago, Masha said:

Revenge towards who - Starks? Targaeryens? Lannisters? Martells? I mean she got the raw deal but the blame can be spread around

 

 

 

 

 

I would guess first and foremost Robert, followed by, the Lannisters, the Arryns, the Tullys, and maybe the Starks. Depending on how she left Ned, perhaps him most of all or perhaps not at all.

Just pure speculation here, but what would you think if it is Ashara, not Varys who smuggles Aegon out of King's Landing and to the Free Cities? What if she is the one entrusted to save Rhaegar and Elia's child and to keep him safe from harm? Now, let's take this one more step - what if she fails and the child dies? Would she be bitter and guilt ridden? If Varys then approaches her with a way to get back at those who have destroyed her world would she take it? I think she might.

My point here is I think under certain circumstances, Ashara could be part of a plot to put a pretender on the throne. But more than that she is the only character that can reasonably convince Doran that Aegon is really his nephew - true or not.

[Lord Varys]

@SFDanny

The main argument against Ashara being involved in the Aegon thing is not just the fact that it is difficult to construe a good motive for (aside from 'she could have done it') because we simply do not know her or her agenda at court (if she had any) but also the fact that Tyrion doesn't seem to consider her a great beauty or a former great beauty.

I'm willing to overlook Tyrion not noticing Lemore's haunting purple eyes for plot convenience but Connington should know she is Ashara Dayne and doesn't betray any of that in his two chapters.

I'm much more inclined to believe that Lemore is actually Aegon's mother. The important part in her story is that Tyrion noticed her stretch marks, indicating that she had already given birth.

[SFDanny]

7 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

@SFDanny

The main argument against Ashara being involved in the Aegon thing is not just the fact that it is difficult to construe a good motive for (aside from 'she could have done it') because we simply do not know her or her agenda at court (if she had any) but also the fact that Tyrion doesn't seem to consider her a great beauty or a former great beauty.

I'm willing to overlook Tyrion not noticing Lemore's haunting purple eyes for plot convenience but Connington should know she is Ashara Dayne and doesn't betray any of that in his two chapters.

I'm much more inclined to believe that Lemore is actually Aegon's mother. The important part in her story is that Tyrion noticed her stretch marks, indicating that she had already given birth.

LV, I think Connington knows quite well Septon Lemore is Ashara. They were at court together and both part of the Prince's party. They should have known each other very well. I think her testimony is realistically necessary to convince Connington of Aegon's identity. If she tells Lord Jon this babe, or rather, this young child is Aegon, he is likely to believe her. He is not likely to take Varys's word for it.

If Aegon is really Aegon, Ashara's motive is quite clear. She, like Connington, wants to place the child of Rhaegar and Elia on the throne. If the child is an imposter, her motives are much less clear, but I tried to say what they maybe in my last post. The questions about Ashara's beauty and Tyrion's view of her mean next to nothing. The septa has live the last seventeen years, at least, in toil and while on the riverboat exposed to the elements. She is no pampered Lady-in-waiting even if she once was just that.

The main reason I think Ashara is the Septa is, however, the huge gaping crater of a plot hole in Varys's story as it relates to convincing the Prince of Dorne Aegon is really Aegon. The first five years of Aegon's life have to be vouched for, and someone other than Varys must be able to say how Aegon was smuggled out from King's Landing. If it is just Varys's word that he smuggled the child out, then, when it comes to Prince Doran, there is no way to convince him. Obviously, Varys and Illyrio have nursed this plot for seventeen years or so, and they know this weakness. What other character could vouch for the child and convince the Prince? Tyene's mother? The same Septa known to be in the Reach while Lemore is supposed to be raising Aegon? Wenda the White Fawn?  Please! No, Ashara is the only character that makes sense.

[Masha]

2 hours ago, SFDanny said:

LV, I think Connington knows quite well Septon Lemore is Ashara. They were at court together and both part of the Prince's party. They should have known each other very well. I think her testimony is realistically necessary to convince Connington of Aegon's identity. If she tells Lord Jon this babe, or rather, this young child is Aegon, he is likely to believe her. He is not likely to take Varys's word for it.

If Aegon is really Aegon, Ashara's motive is quite clear. She, like Connington, wants to place the child of Rhaegar and Elia on the throne. If the child is an imposter, her motives are much less clear, but I tried to say what they maybe in my last post. The questions about Ashara's beauty and Tyrion's view of her mean next to nothing. The septa has live the last seventeen years, at least, in toil and while on the riverboat exposed to the elements. She is no pampered Lady-in-waiting even if she once was just that.

The main reason I think Ashara is the Septa is, however, the huge gaping crater of a plot hole in Varys's story as it relates to convincing the Prince of Dorne Aegon is really Aegon. The first five years of Aegon's life have to be vouched for, and someone other than Varys must be able to say how Aegon was smuggled out from King's Landing. If it is just Varys's word that he smuggled the child out, then, when it comes to Prince Doran, there is no way to convince him. Obviously, Varys and Illyrio have nursed this plot for seventeen years or so, and they know this weakness. What other character could vouch for the child and convince the Prince? Tyene's mother? The same Septa known to be in the Reach while Lemore is supposed to be raising Aegon? Wenda the White Fawn?  Please! No, Ashara is the only character that makes sense.

Not necessarily.

Spoiler

Based on AWOW POV's GRRM released, Varys/JonCon don't need to convince Doran about Aegon being real. They only need to convince Doran's messenger - Arianne. And Arianne is still extremely shallow and short-sighted impulsive person, however highly she thinks of her overblown skills at conspiracies. Plus she has a HUGE weakness, she LOVES bad boys. Arianne knowing full well about Gerald Dayne's viciousness and being dangerous, being warned,  all people by Oberyn himself (whom she loves and inspires to emulate), she still slept with him, allowed him in to her silly conspiracy and let him get close enough to attack poor Myrcella.  And Aegon is HOT and Cool.   

Plus, why wouldn't Doran be eager to believe Aegon and JonCon, since he soon will realize that his beloved son is dead, killed by Dragons and will (justly or unjustly) blame Dany for that. At that point, I believe Doran will be less concerned with Aegon being real deal, than with getting revenge and getting one of his heirs on the throne. (Arianne is still available to marry after all)

 

[bent branch]

On ‎8‎/‎29‎/‎2016 at 0:37 PM, Masha said:

 

I can understand the similarities between Septa Lemore and Ashara Dayne, but I just can't understand explanations towards her justifications towards her doing that.

Septa Lemore=Ashara Dayne can only play out if Aegon is real deal otherwise it makes no sense.

I can find no reasons for her to claim a fake boy with no relations to her to be a real-thing and basically lie to everyone.

And no, I don't believe that either Illyrio and Varys would go all these lengths for her son with zero relations to them.

If JonCon spent additional 5 years with Golden Company before being introduced to fAegon, the boy would be 6 to 8 yrs old by then.

Aegon would be 6 by then. Who the hell knows how old a fake Aegon would be. The comment you are referring to started out by discussing how a fake boy could be three to four years younger than Aegon and JonCon not know the difference. I have yet to see a convincing argument for Aegon, if he is fake, being three to four years younger than the real Aegon.

Addressing the original OP, it is my belief that the person who convinced JonCon was Ashara Dayne, who we have met as Septa Lemore. I believe that Septa Lemore was with Aegon literally since infancy. This would mean that Aegon is really the son of Rhaegar and Elia. Based on what we know from the book, an SSM where GRRM said the KG were following orders, and an SSM where GRRM said Ashara was not nailed down during the war, this is what I think happened:

When Aerys ordered Elia and the children to go to Kingslanding, Elia had Ashara take Aegon with her Starfall. Elia did this to protect her child from his crazy grandfather. She couldn't do this with Rhaenys because Aerys had already met Rhaenys and knew her on sight. However, Aerys had never seen Aegon. When Rhaegar returned to KL and the war, he ordered the KG to stay with Lyanna until she delivered. If things went badly they were to take Aegon, Lyanna and Lyanna's child into exile.

After the war, Ned arrived to find a dying Lyanna. Lyanna begged Ned to not let her child be taken into exile. She begged Ned to take Jon back to Winterfell and raise him there. After Lyanna's death, when Ned tried to take Jon with him is when the battle at the ToJ took place. After the battle, Ned took Dawn back to Starfall, where Aegon was already. When Ashara realized that no one was coming, she herself took Aegon into exile with the help of Varys and Illyrio. She faked her death so no one would question where she was. JonCon also faked his death, it is a clue folks!

Anyway, when the time came Ashara was the one who convinced JonCon of Aegon's legitimacy. Also, JonCon knows about Jon. Ashara knew about Jon and she told JonCon.

[SFDanny]

12 hours ago, Masha said:

Not necessarily.

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Based on AWOW POV's GRRM released, Varys/JonCon don't need to convince Doran about Aegon being real. They only need to convince Doran's messenger - Arianne. And Arianne is still extremely shallow and short-sighted impulsive person, however highly she thinks of her overblown skills at conspiracies. Plus she has a HUGE weakness, she LOVES bad boys. Arianne knowing full well about Gerald Dayne's viciousness and being dangerous, being warned,  all people by Oberyn himself (whom she loves and inspires to emulate), she still slept with him, allowed him in to her silly conspiracy and let him get close enough to attack poor Myrcella.  And Aegon is HOT and Cool.   

Plus, why wouldn't Doran be eager to believe Aegon and JonCon, since he soon will realize that his beloved son is dead, killed by Dragons and will (justly or unjustly) blame Dany for that. At that point, I believe Doran will be less concerned with Aegon being real deal, than with getting revenge and getting one of his heirs on the throne. (Arianne is still available to marry after all)

 

Doran is not eager to go to war for anyone. He has not moved to revenge his sister in such an open way ever since her death for a very, very good reason. He will likely loose, and Dorne would loose along with him.

Spoiler

I know the possibility you speak of, but it reduces Arianne's character to an easily fooled, blithering idiot. She knows she has to find the truth of Aegon's identity and she has already started in her TWoW spoiler chapters to question Connington's identity. I can't see her sending a message to her father that is based on swooning over "bad boys." I think you vastly underestimate her character.

 

[SFDanny]

3 hours ago, bent branch said:

Aegon would be 6 by then. Who the hell knows how old a fake Aegon would be. The comment you are referring to started out by discussing how a fake boy could be three to four years younger than Aegon and JonCon not know the difference. I have yet to see a convincing argument for Aegon, if he is fake, being three to four years younger than the real Aegon.

Addressing the original OP, it is my belief that the person who convinced JonCon was Ashara Dayne, who we have met as Septa Lemore. I believe that Septa Lemore was with Aegon literally since infancy. This would mean that Aegon is really the son of Rhaegar and Elia. Based on what we know from the book, an SSM where GRRM said the KG were following orders, and an SSM where GRRM said Ashara was not nailed down during the war, this is what I think happened:

When Aerys ordered Elia and the children to go to Kingslanding, Elia had Ashara take Aegon with her Starfall. Elia did this to protect her child from his crazy grandfather. She couldn't do this with Rhaenys because Aerys had already met Rhaenys and knew her on sight. However, Aerys had never seen Aegon. When Rhaegar returned to KL and the war, he ordered the KG to stay with Lyanna until she delivered. If things went badly they were to take Aegon, Lyanna and Lyanna's child into exile.

After the war, Ned arrived to find a dying Lyanna. Lyanna begged Ned to not let her child be taken into exile. She begged Ned to take Jon back to Winterfell and raise him there. After Lyanna's death, when Ned tried to take Jon with him is when the battle at the ToJ took place. After the battle, Ned took Dawn back to Starfall, where Aegon was already. When Ashara realized that no one was coming, she herself took Aegon into exile with the help of Varys and Illyrio. She faked her death so no one would question where she was. JonCon also faked his death, it is a clue folks!

Anyway, when the time came Ashara was the one who convinced JonCon of Aegon's legitimacy. Also, JonCon knows about Jon. Ashara knew about Jon and she told JonCon.

I think your take is entirely possible. I once wrote a little essay I called "Two Princes in the Tower." It was based on the idea that Elia would never trust her son to Varys, but both her and Rhaegar have every interest in getting their children out of King's Landing and away from Aerys's power. It's also a play on Martin's penchant for stealing real world War of the Roses themes and giving them his own personal twist. The idea is that the "pisswater prince" conspiracy is something that really happened, but Varys only discovers it after the fact. It is a plot by Aegon's parents, not by Varys, that has a child swap used to smuggle Aegon out, but not to the Free Cities first. First to the care of Rhaegar's most trusted friends - the Kingsguard at the Tower of Joy. It is Ashara who, in this scenario, who smuggles the real Aegon out of King's Landing and into her brother's protection.

I like the idea that Lady Ashara is one of the "they" who discover Ned holding Lyanna's dead body at the tower of joy, and Aegon, with a shaved head like Egg before him, is disguised as Wylla the wet nurse's own child. Ned and Howland then take all of them with them to Starfall to return both Ser Arthur's sword and his sister home safely - not knowing he is also escorting the baby Aegon along with his sister's child. Ned believes Aegon is dead, having seen his corpse laid before Robert's feet, and he has no reason to question a wet nurse having her own child as well as being there to feed the newborn Jon.

The rest is much like you describe. After Ned, Howland, and Jon leave, Ashara fakes her death by suicide - with no body found as the author has told us - and she and the wet nurse's baby disappear across the sea to the Free Cities.

You might not like any of that, and I admit it is pure speculation based on some clues in the books, but it's a possibility that has fascinated me for a while.

I also like the scenario because I've often wondered how Ned, Howland, Jon and Wylla would be able to make the journey to Starfall unmolested and unarrested. Ashara's presence would explain that. Where we different significantly, I think, is I don't believe this necessarily means Young Griff is the real Aegon.

In any scenario in which Ashara takes Aegon away to hide in the Free Cities, I think we have to explain how Varys and Illyrio get involved and nurse their plot for so long. Let's say the father of the "pisswater prince" sobers up and wants a new bottle of Arbor Gold. If he goes to the Red Keep telling his tale of how he sold his son for the first one, would Varys take notice? I think he would, and I think he wouldn't rest until he found out what happened to that child and what happened to the Lady Ashara. Once he finds her, the question becomes what does he do? Does he just befriend Ashara and adopt the real Aegon as his own project for a Targaryen restoration? Or does he help the boy meet a mishap or a sickness that shatters her world? Again, my bias is against Varys ever really helping Rhaegar's and Elia's child. But, I certainly admit, Aegon could be the real deal. 

Hope you find my speculation entertaining.

[Neds Secret]

On 21 August 2016 at 1:05 AM, Marcus corvinus said:

Okay everyone seems to take it for granted that aegon is fake But one thing no seems to take to account is that varys convinced jon connington that aegon is aegon targareyn. 

Jon connington is one of the smartest and most able lords in westeros. And when varys brings him to JC he's already a hardened mercenary, more world weary. And he's always been suspicious and reproachful of the spider. Why did jon con accept aegon? Isn't he supposed to doubt it? After all this aegon was suddenly conjured before him out of nowhere years after the battle of the trident.

What evidence did varys provide JC? or did Myles Toyne convince him? Were varys and toyne playing a number on him?

Or does JC suffer from denial? He lost his prince, his love, his lands, titles and everything; in his mind this is his last chance at redemption, a chance to live for something.

This is why I think he is the real deal, Aegon Targaryen. If JonCon believes it's him, why should I not, it also makes not much sense to me for GRRM  introduce a fraudulent character into the story at this late stage.

[Nocturne]

If Aegon is indeed a Blackfrye, who are his parents suppose to be? Maelys I Blackfyre was the last of his line, and to my knowledge he didn't have any male children.

So maybe somebody from the female line of Blackfrye? But that would not only make him a fake targ, it would make him a bastard as well.

 

 

 

[1000th Lord Commander]

26 minutes ago, Nocturne said:

If Aegon is indeed a Blackfrye, who are his parents suppose to be? Maelys I Blackfyre was the last of his line, and to my knowledge he didn't have any male children.

So maybe somebody from the female line of Blackfrye? But that would not only make him a fake targ, it would make him a bastard as well.

 

 

 

The general theory I've read seems to think that he is Illyrio's son, and Serra was a Blackfyre in the decent of the female line.

I think it would be fairly easy to convince JonCon. He wants to believe in fAegon, and Varys would simply be able to show him Dany and Viserys to show that he is indeed working towards a Targ restoration. What else Varys would need to say or do I don't know. Varys could even have said something to Jon on his way out of King's Landing, such as if it all goes bad I'll get the boy to you, and then simply produced the baby in Essos. Granted, it would require a certain amount of foresight, but Varys is nothing if not cunning

[Lord Varys]

16 hours ago, SFDanny said:

LV, I think Connington knows quite well Septon Lemore is Ashara. They were at court together and both part of the Prince's party. They should have known each other very well. I think her testimony is realistically necessary to convince Connington of Aegon's identity. If she tells Lord Jon this babe, or rather, this young child is Aegon, he is likely to believe her. He is not likely to take Varys's word for it.

Well, that assumes that Connington has a good reason to trust Lady Ashara in this whole thing. Granted, she might have a better reputation than Varys but we have no reason to believe Jon Connington would trust her, or do we?

But the point is that Connington never thinks of Lemore as Ashara in his two chapters. Why would he do this? Do you think he lives the lie in her cause much more than in his own case and Aegon's? There is no point in keeping that thing a secret at this point.

16 hours ago, SFDanny said:

If Aegon is really Aegon, Ashara's motive is quite clear. She, like Connington, wants to place the child of Rhaegar and Elia on the throne. If the child is an imposter, her motives are much less clear, but I tried to say what they maybe in my last post. The questions about Ashara's beauty and Tyrion's view of her mean next to nothing. The septa has live the last seventeen years, at least, in toil and while on the riverboat exposed to the elements. She is no pampered Lady-in-waiting even if she once was just that.

Yet Aegon and Connington lived the same life, and the boy is very beautiful. Aegon and Connington even more so considering that the boy was trained at arms and Connington actually served with the Golden Company a few years. The idea that Ashara's beauty withered away in those years while Connington and Aegon thrived makes little sense.

Not to mention that we have no reason whatsoever to believe that the gang spent the last decade or so on that boat. They are using the boat to go to Volantis but we don't know where they were before.

16 hours ago, SFDanny said:

The main reason I think Ashara is the Septa is, however, the huge gaping crater of a plot hole in Varys's story as it relates to convincing the Prince of Dorne Aegon is really Aegon. The first five years of Aegon's life have to be vouched for, and someone other than Varys must be able to say how Aegon was smuggled out from King's Landing. If it is just Varys's word that he smuggled the child out, then, when it comes to Prince Doran, there is no way to convince him. Obviously, Varys and Illyrio have nursed this plot for seventeen years or so, and they know this weakness. What other character could vouch for the child and convince the Prince? Tyene's mother? The same Septa known to be in the Reach while Lemore is supposed to be raising Aegon? Wenda the White Fawn?  Please! No, Ashara is the only character that makes sense.

You are making the mistake to believe that Varys/Illyrio ever intended to convince Doran of anything. You are putting the cart before the wagon, basically.

As I've said already Doran might already believe Varys is his friend because he gives him vital information of dangerous plots in KL (Cersei's plot to kill Trystane).

But even if that wasn't true then Varys/Illyrio's original plan never depended on Doran believing anything they told him. Their plan involved Viserys III and a Dothraki horde invading Westeros, rallying the remaining Targaryen loyalists behind them. There was no reason to believe Doran Martell had to be convinced that Viserys III was Viserys III nor was there later any reason (when the plan had changed) to believe that Doran Martell needed to be convinced that Daenerys Targaryen (the consort of Prince Aegon) was Daenerys Targaryen.

If Aegon had invaded Westeros (as a dragonrider) at Dany's side then Doran Martell would have joined them. Dany alone would have been enough just as Viserys III earlier on would have been enough.

Right now Aegon could need someone to vouch for his identity aside from Jon Connington but that's only because the plan changed and Aegon invaded solo. But this doesn't mean that they ever thought about or prepared for this scenario.

As to how things will turn out now:

Spoiler

Doran Martell's opinion on Aegon has actually become irrelevant. He has given his daughter and heir leave to make that decision for him and all Dorne. There is also a reason why the hell we learned that Arianne also has leave and the means to send a message to the commanders of the Dornish armies in the Boneway and the Prince's Pass. If Doran thought he should make the final decision he would not have given Arianne leave and the means to do that.

I don't know why Arianne is going to declare for Aegon but it is pretty obvious that she will. Once she realizes that Quentyn and Dany aren't coming she may, at first, just take this as a means to get her revenge. But depending on the time line the news about Daenerys' marriage to one Hizdahr zo Loraq or her disappearance/alleged death might reach her in time to convince her that the Quentyn plan is never going to work. In such a scenario she could either continue to do nothing or join forces with Aegon regardless whether he is her cousin or not.

But aside from all that there is the fact that Varys/Illyrio never had a good reason to convince Doran of anything. All they really need to do is to ensure that violence escalates between Dorne and the Lannisters/the Iron Throne at the right time. Ser Gerold might have acted on their behalf when he tried to murder Myrcella to begin such a war. He had little reason to do such a thing completely on his own considering that the Prince of Dorne certainly has the resources to find and hang him while he is fighting against the Lannisters.

If this is true then Gerold Dayne being involved in an action that serves Aegon's cause could possibly be a hint that Ashara Dayne was also part of the Aegon plan. But that only makes sense if Aegon is actually Rhaegar's son.