Pink Letter was written and sent by Mance

[The Great and Mighty Poo]

Am I in the minority by thinking that maybe Ramsay Snow actually wrote it?

I'm with you on that.

[King Jaime Lannister]

Something weird from the sample Theon chapter that don't seem to match up:

"Just now, the turncloak is more use to me alive. He has knowledge we may need. Bring in this maester." The king plucked a parchment off the table and squinted over it. A letter, Theon knew. Its broken seal was black wax, hard and shiny. I know what that says, he thought, giggling.

What was this letter from the Nights Watch? How does Theon know what is says? Is this knowledge about Jon's death? (I do not think so)

Later in the chapter:

"Oh, and take the Stark girl with you. Deliver her to Lord Commander Snow on your way to Eastwatch." Stannis tapped the parchment that lay before him. "A true king pays his debts."

So Stannis does not think Jon is dead, clearly. What was in the letter he received with black wax?

[Thucydides]

Something weird from the sample Theon chapter that don't seem to match up:

"Just now, the turncloak is more use to me alive. He has knowledge we may need. Bring in this maester." The king plucked a parchment off the table and squinted over it. A letter, Theon knew. Its broken seal was black wax, hard and shiny. I know what that says, he thought, giggling.

What was this letter from the Nights Watch? How does Theon know what is says?....

What was in the letter he received with black wax?

The black-sealed letter says that the Karstarks are traitors. Theon knows this because the Karstarks were at Barrowtown.

Regarding the Pink Letter (the topic of the original post): Mance did not write it. There's no way of knowing what Jon's reaction would be, and Mance is in far too precarious a position to want Jon exposed anyway. He's a deserter from the Night's Watch surrounded by Northern lords who would gladly send his head back to the wall.

The purpose of the Pink Letter is to show Jon that its author knows of Jon's oath breaking in collaborating with Stannis and sending Mance on a mission to rescue his sister. Mance has no need of this sort of leverage, and if he did he could use it directly under his own name.

Stannis has an incentive to hide rather than expose Jon's oath breaking, since they are partners in crime.

The only people with an incentive to try to get leverage over Jon by blackmailing him based on his oath breaking with Stannis and Mance are the Boltons. What the letter communicates is that unless they get their hostages, they will expose Jon's oath breaking by showing up at the wall to explain it for all to hear.

Jon could have simply taken command of a wildling force under pretense of going to another castle, and instead gone to fight Ramsey to preserve his secret. Instead, Jon takes the surprise step of exposing his oath breaking on his own, which robs the author of the Pink Letter of any leverage over him. There's no way that the author of the letter could have expected this. (Or the fact that it would lead to Jon's assassination -- something that also robs the author of his leverage.)

Conclusion: the Pink Letter is written by one of the Boltons, most likely Ramsey, but possibly Roose using Ramsey's name as cover so that he can keep his hands clean.

For the record, I don't believe that the Northern lords would allow the washerwomen to be flayed. What I speculate is that once Abel is unmasked as Mance, he savages Ramsey, leaving him badly beaten and horribly humiliated. Mance is consigned to a cell in Winterfell's dungeon, and Ramsey writes an overblown account of how he's captured Mance and clothed him in the skin of the flayed washerwomen in order to vent his impotent rage. Seriously, this is Mance we're talking about here. (Didn't everybody always suspected that Mance wasn't the one who was burned alive, because of the way that fake Mance became craven once he approached the fire? I know I suspected it.)

[BryndenTullys#1fan]

The raven point does it for me. The letter had to come from either a raven with destination castle black or a raven controlled by Bran.

That to me narrows it down to the maesters at WF under Bolton control or Stannis is somehow able to communicate with Bran.

I'm thinking all scenarios are far fetched, except Ramsey or Roose writting it. Since Roose doesn't seem the type to imitate Ramsey, I'm going with the crackpots that think Ramsey actually wrote it.

[Pod The Impaler]

The letter may be fake overall (what would it really take - some pink sealing wax and bad language ?). I suspect the same Ides of Marsh conspiracy - Bowen, Alliser Thorne, possibly Selyse, who really do not want Jon in charge of the Watch. (Maybe the Boltons are more in contact with the conspirators against Jon than is generally understood.)

I do not think Mance would do this, since it makes little sense. Jon Snow - despite all that's happened - is someone Mance knows to be in basic agreement with his plan to save the wildlings by taking them beyond the wall. Jon has been remarkably open-minded for a crow, whereas Bowen Marsh would let them all die and squander the strength on the Wall in pointless conflicts. So why do something that would benefit your foes ?

[Florina Laufeyson]

Am I in the minority by thinking that maybe Ramsay Snow actually wrote it?

Count me in on this Crackpot Club.

[Morienthar]

I'm still in the Stannis wrote it to lure out Jon club.

[Sansa_Stark]

I am under the impression that Ramsay did write it too.

[Gneisenau]

Mance learned to write at the wall even though he was a ranger ?

[Muggle]

The letter says that the Karstarks are traitors. Theon knows this because the Karstarks were at Barrowtown.

Why would Theon have any idea that Jon knows the truth of the Karstarks?

[Buckthorn]

Doubt it, I believe Ramsay wrote the letter. In all the previous ADWD chapters the letters the Bastard sent had a button of pink wax, the one he sent Asha, Jon (about the wedding to fArya) and the letter he gave Theon to deliver to the Ironborn at Moat Cailin all had no seal. The reason all of his letters only had pink wax was because in ACOK the first Reek was given Ramsay's clothing and ring with the Bolton Seal used to seal official documentation, Reek was mistakenly killed by Stark forces and apparently the Bolton signet ring was lost.

[Mad Monkey]

I think Ramsay wrote it, only because of the douchey word choice. It takes real practice to come across as that much of a raging asshole in such a short missive and I don't think Mance has the chops to pull it off.

[Thucydides]

Why would Theon have any idea that Jon knows the truth of the Karstarks?

Because Tycho brought both the black-sealed letter and Theon. The contents of the letter describe the betrayal of the Karstarks, and Stannis has already read it: the seal is broken, Stannis had already called for the Karstarks, and he is simply consulting the letter before they enter.

The contents of the black-sealed letter describe the plot to disinherit Alys Karstark and betrayal by Arnolf Karstark, as we can infer from the conversation on page 658 of ADwD:

[Jon says,] "Marriages and inheritance are matters for the king, my lady. I will write to Stannis on your behalf, but--"

Alys Karstark laughed, but it was the laughter of despair. "Write, but do not look for a reply. Stannis will be dead before he gets your message. My uncle will see to that."

"What do you mean?"

"Arnolf is rushing to Winterfell, 'tis true, but only so he might put his dagger in your king's back. He cast his lot with Roose Bolton long ago ... for gold, the promise of a pardon, and poor Harry's head. Lord Stannis is marching to a slaughter. So he cannot help me, and would not even if he could." Alys knelt before him, clutching the black cloak. "You are my only hope, Lord Snow. In your father's name, I beg you. Protect me."

So this is the contents of the black-sealed letter the Jon writes, which he undoubtedly sent along with Tychos. We read on page 713 of ADwD:

The Braavosi banker was off in search of Stannis as well, accompanied by the guides that Jon had given him, but between the war and weather, it would be a wonder if he found him.

Tychos undoubtedly knows the contents of the black-sealed letter. When he arrives at Stannis's camp, Asha Greyjoy offers to have him taken to Stannis, to which Tychos replies, "That would be most kind. Time is of the essence." Of course, Tychos wants to leave before the battle (as he indicates in the sample chapter) but his deal with Stannis will not bear fruit if Stannis is not informed of the traitors in his midst in time to do something about it before the battle.

It's unlikely that Theon was conscious when Stannis first read it (assuming he read it allowed), because Theon wouldn't be so giddy about knowing its contents.

So, if Theon knows what the letter with the black seal says, it's because someone in Tychos' company alluded to its contents, saying something about their being traitors in Stannis's midst (perhaps to explain the need for them to hurry). Theon would quickly understand that it is the Karstarks, since he saw them with Roose at Barrowtown.

[Muggle]

Because Tycho brought both the black-sealed letter and Theon. The contents of the letter describe the betrayal of the Karstarks, and Stannis has already read it: the seal is broken, Stannis had already called for the Karstarks, and he is simply consulting the letter before they enter.

The contents of the black-sealed letter describe the plot to disinherit Alys Karstark and betrayal by Arnolf Karstark, as we can infer from the conversation on page 658 of ADwD:

So this is the contents of the letter the Jon writes, which he undoubtedly sent along with Tychos. We read on page 713 of ADwD:

Tychos undoubtedly knows the contents of the letter. When he arrives at Stannis's camp, Asha Greyjoy offers to have him taken to Stannis, to which Tychos replies, "That would be most kind. Time is of the essence." Of course, Tychos wants to leave before the battle (as he indicates in the sample chapter) but his deal with Stannis will not bear fruit if Stannis is not informed of the traitors in his midst in time to do something about it before the battle.

It's unlikely that Theon was conscious when Stannis first read it (assuming he read it allowed), because Theon wouldn't be so giddy about knowing its contents.

So, if Theon knows what the letter with the black seal says, it's because someone in Tychos' company alluded to its contents, saying something about their being traitors in Stannis's midst (perhaps to explain the need for them to hurry). Theon would quickly understand that it is the Karstarks, since he saw them with Roose at Barrowtown.

So, there is no real textual evidence of your claim. Its a good theory but im not biting.

I doubt Theon knows that Jon knows about the betrayal. Im pretty sure Theons self joke was about something else. For a different theory :fencing:

[OberynBlackfyre]

So, there is no real textual evidence of your claim. Its a good theory but im not biting.

I doubt Theon knows that Jon knows about the betrayal. Im pretty sure Theons self joke was about something else. For a different theory :fencing:

I think Mance may have written it, but not for the reasons that you display. as far as we know, Mance is still somewhat a "slave" to Melisandre....we have no proof that she made him take off the ruby. Yes the ruby was being used as a glamour, but I think it was also being used for somewhat control over him.

Also, the Mance that we meet before going to Winterfell is someone that is pretty reserved, and realizes that his fight is all but done. Stirring the pot as you say would do nothing for him except bring death upon his people. His goal was never to conquer the North, it was to bring the Wildings safely to the other side of the Wall to escape from the White Walkers. In each of his conversations with the Wilding leaders that we see, it;s about preservation and saving his people, never greed. This has already been accomplished in the best way possible by the things that Jon has put forth. Mance knows who the real enemy is, and any fighting South of the Wall would just decrease the chances for survival of his people less and less.

That being said, Melisandre has the know how and cunning to MAKE Mance write something like that. We know from her vision into the flames that she is worried about whats going on with Stannis...and if she finally does see whats going on, all she is going to see is a doomed march. However, if there is some sort of link of communication between Mance and her, she would know every little detail that was put inside that letter, and probably find a way for Mance to send it off. Also notice that she leaves the Shield Hall as all this is going down....not a reaction you would expect her to have, especially if there is news of Stannis being dead.

[Thucydides]

So, there is no real textual evidence of your claim. Its a good theory but im not biting.

I doubt Theon knows that Jon knows about the betrayal. Im pretty sure Theons self joke was about something else. For a different theory

That's kind of a strange reply. We're talking about the black-sealed letter on Stannis's table, right?

We know that Jon succeeded in communicating the Karstark betrayal. We know that Jon wrote a letter to Stannis -- hence the black seal. We know that Tycho was the mechanism for the conveyance of this message.

We know that Theon actually does know the contents of the black-sealed letter. And we know that Theon knows that Stannis knows about the betrayal. Aside from the fact that Theon says that he knows the contents of the black-sealed letter, he watches eagerly as the Karstark's Maester squirms under Stannis's interrogation: "Theon Greyjoy kicked his feet feebly, and laughed under his breath. Caught!"

Seriously, there's not much mystery here. It's not so much a theory as a much as it's how the book reads from the POV's provided. Are you saying that you don't think that there's textual evidence that the black-sealed letter contains the message of the Karstark betrayal?

[Thucydides]

I think Mance may have written it, but not for the reasons that you display. as far as we know, Mance is still somewhat a "slave" to Melisandre....we have no proof that she made him take off the ruby. Yes the ruby was being used as a glamour, but I think it was also being used for somewhat control over him.

I'm talking about the Black-sealed letter that sits on Stannis's table during the gift AWoW Theon chapter, not the Pink Letter. (Though I do address the Pink Letter in my earlier comment.)

[Muggle]

I think Mance may have written it, but not for the reasons that you display. as far as we know, Mance is still somewhat a "slave" to Melisandre....we have no proof that she made him take off the ruby. Yes the ruby was being used as a glamour, but I think it was also being used for somewhat control over him.

Also, the Mance that we meet before going to Winterfell is someone that is pretty reserved, and realizes that his fight is all but done. Stirring the pot as you say would do nothing for him except bring death upon his people. His goal was never to conquer the North, it was to bring the Wildings safely to the other side of the Wall to escape from the White Walkers. In each of his conversations with the Wilding leaders that we see, it;s about preservation and saving his people, never greed. This has already been accomplished in the best way possible by the things that Jon has put forth. Mance knows who the real enemy is, and any fighting South of the Wall would just decrease the chances for survival of his people less and less.

That being said, Melisandre has the know how and cunning to MAKE Mance write something like that. We know from her vision into the flames that she is worried about whats going on with Stannis...and if she finally does see whats going on, all she is going to see is a doomed march. However, if there is some sort of link of communication between Mance and her, she would know every little detail that was put inside that letter, and probably find a way for Mance to send it off. Also notice that she leaves the Shield Hall as all this is going down....not a reaction you would expect her to have, especially if there is news of Stannis being dead.

I believe Mance said to Jon that when across the wall he has no intentions of "kneeling" and obeying the laws of the 7 Kingdoms. He fully intends to keep the Free Folk life style. He must know this will lead to war with the Norther Houses. And he must of had some sort of plans to be ready for this. He was all but expecting to walk threw a wildling captured Castle Black. Mance loves the free folk and he seems to love democracy.

I could even suggest he was a visionary intending his 100k army to help him achieve a new political lifestyle in the North.

At the very least he was intending and had to have plans of fighting the Norther Lords

[fuem]

It was just stannis it always is stannis hey some guy tripped over a banana peel in KL must be stannis

[Pod The Impaler]

I think Ramsay wrote it, only because of the douchey word choice. It takes real practice to come across as that much of a raging asshole in such a short missive and I don't think Mance has the chops to pull it off.

Good supporting evidence here.