Pink Letter was written and sent by Mance

[Thucydides]

Frankly, the Mance/Stannis theories of authorship strike me as outlandish to the point of being crackpot. There's really no reasonable motivation to explain why they would write it. For Stannis it would be extremely out of character. Mance is very goal oriented, and it would be out of character for him to want to simply "stir the pot" without a definite end in mind.

Both the Mance and Stannis theories ignore the fact that the stated purpose of the letter is to get the hostages back, and nobody cares about the hostages except Ramsey.

Both theories ignore the fact that the means to getting the hostage is threefold:

• blackmailing Jon by exposing his heretofore hidden collaboration with Stannis and Mance, which constitutes oath breaking;
• disabling Jon's power to use the Night's Watch and its resources to protect himself by exposing Jon's oathbreaking (similar to the way that Hitchcock always disabled the police as a means of protection in his movies); and
• using the vulnerability of the Night's Watch from the south and the power of a reasonable army to threaten the safety of the Night's watch in the event that Jon simply wants to ignore the letter and deny its allegations

The letter seems unaware that Jon has the support of the wildlings that he does, and certainly does not anticipate Jon leaving the wall with such a force to fight the author.

All of this clearly points to Ramsey, and all that the Mance theorists have to offer is, "Sounds like Mance. Here's some word analysis of other things that GRRM wrote. Mance wants to stir the pot." It makes me ask myself who can reasonably believe that it's Mance. Do followers of the Mance theory actually understand what the letter says beyond the phrases that match other parts of GRRM's writing? Is it that they're too caught up in the details to see the larger picture?

(Of course, I'll have to eat crow when TWoW comes out and one of the first chapters describes Mance writing the letter for reasons that seem entirely cogent in retrospect.)

[The guy from the Vale]

Yes, we Mance theorists do understand what the Pink Letter says. Mance seems to have a very clear goal in mind: getting as many Wildlings as possible through the Wall. But he also cannot beat the Watch, so he has to do it another way. Blackmailing the Lord Commander of the Watch seems to be a good way of exercising the leverage needed to attain his goal, even if he is not able or willing to actually make his threat come real. We had the same with his fake Horn of Joramun that Mance wanted to use to blackmail the Watch into giving up.

I admit I don't see Stannis writing the letter, as it would seem wildly out of character for him. But to me the letter also doesn't sound like Ramsay at all, but rather like Mance in so many ways I can't ignore that that's what I'll be sticking with for the time being.

And yes, I expect to end up with egg on my face there, but oh well... ;)

[By the Old Gods Not theNew]

I had a long response that got deleted before I could post it so for now i'll just say :agree: with theguyfromtheVale and there are both nuanced textual readings and goal oriented explanations for why Mance might be the author of the pink the letter, as to the latter here's an example: #286

[Thucydides]

I had a long response that got deleted before I could post it so for know i'll just say :agree: with theguyfromtheVale and there are both nuanced textual readings and goal oriented explanations for why Mance might be the author of the pink the letter, as to the latter here's an example: #286

Sorry your response got deleted. I like the thread that you link to -- it provides a good motive for Mance within a framework that makes that motive possible. Thanks for sharing the link.

[Queen‍‍‍‍‍‍ Alysanne‍‍™]

Nvm I found it

[bemused]

Ah well, I don't agree that the purpose of the letter was to get the hostages .. I think the purpose of the letter is debatable , depending on who wrote it.

My opinion, to date , is that Stannis most likely wrote it ( originally). His main purpose being to warn Jon that Ramsay was coming after "Arya" ( and Theon ) so that Jon can mount a defense. Secondarily, he warns Jon that the truth about Mance is out of the bag. ( He would not necessarily think that Jon would read the letter aloud )

We see that Jon knew the best way to defend CB from the south was to cut off the attackers on their way.. evident in his thoughts back when Styr was attacking... Stannis , respected as a strategist , would certainly think the same , and expect Jon to see it, because he's discussed strategies with Jon , and has seen how Jon's mind works.

Stannis may have mentioned all the other hostages, to remind Jon they would be at risk..but not necessarily.That is pretty obvious if Ramsay is on his way.

Then .. I think the letter was intercepted and edited by the conspirators against Jon at the wall .. adding the numerous "bastard"s , enhancing the threats , and perhaps adding the demands for the other hostages.

Stannis' version may not have accused Jon of lying about Mance , but only himself, to provide Jon some cover in the matter ( and/or to gain credit with the free folk )... Stannis and Jon always knew that Jon would be obligated to execute Mance for desertion if Stannis had handed him over to the watch .. That's the whole reason for the glamour (which Stannis did know about )

The taunts to "come to Winterfell" are purely from the conspirators, IMO.

Before I had a search function..I had thought that Tycho would know about Tormund .. but no, Jon's thoughts just before going to speak to Cregan in his cell tell us that his letter to Stannis and Tycho's party have both already left the wall. Val and Tormund only return that night. No-one at WF can have any clue of the wildling numbers Jon ( or Mance ) may have. This rules out any thought of Jon bringing belated re-inforcements . As far as Stannis or Mance would know, Jon has only the 600 or so NW ( not all fighters) and the 300 wildling fighters Stannis had planned to put in his van. Both Stannis and Mance know the wall is undermanned.

Bowen and Co ( which includes Thorne , IMO) always planned to kill Jon ( though Yarwick may not have known that was the desired end ). As far as I know ,that is the only sure way to remove a LC ... ( If there are other ways , I imagine they would have to be agreed upon by a consensus of the leadership of the watch)..Their plan must have gone through a few changes depending on developments... Before his election , Thorne and Slynt branded Jon a traitor to the watch , Thorne even hinting Jon conspired to murder Mormont.. In ADWD, Bowen calls Jon's plans treasonous on at least two occasions, keeping the chant alive..

If Jon had led the ranging to Hardhome, they would have killed him en route and blamed the wildlings for it. This is hinted at by Thorne's accusation of Jon's intentions when Jon sends him out, and other warnings , like Selyse's opinion.. Who planted that idea with her ? She certainly seems to have heard Bowen's complaints about the food...

Jon's point that dead wildlings = wights is well made.. Flint and Norrey can see it , but Bowen can't find a reasoned argument against it , or against Jon's points about the vows. ( At least, not on his own.)

With the arrival of the pink letter..if , by altering it, the conspirators can get Jon to go south to attack Winterfell, then they can still kill him en route and/or claim treason much more reasonably than if he led a ranging north. But Jon foils this plan by intending to take only wildlings , which they couldn't have predicted. They couldn't insinuate assassins into a wildling force.... I'll just add that they know very well that much of what Jon has done in regard to arrivals at the wall, is founded in guest right and that once he has given it, he takes it seriously, so the conspirators can never have seriously thought he would hand any of the hostages over. ( Roose and even Ramsay would know they don't really have a right to ask him to break it.)

I think Bowen has had recourse to Thorne's advice and direction throughout .. because I don't think he's smart enough , or bold enough to have carried the conspiracy that far on his own.That he frequently is at a loss for words ( or reasoned arguments) shows he hasn't been told what to think. ( He's quite a hero worshipper ..e.g. his uncle and the high ground and going back , see his support for Thorne's "droll" treatment of his recruits in AGoT)..But here , after the shieldhall, I think Bowen truly panics .. he has no time to seek advice and his tears show his fear for himself...both in the immediate aftermath of the attack , and possibly of consequences from Thorne should their plans fall through. He acts precipitately , exactly as he did in reaction to Mance's feints.

The swiftest warning Stannis could give would be

to use the ravens taken from the captive maester. These are WF ravens , but I think he will have been at least

partly convinced , by what we take to be Bran and BR inhabiting them and whatever will occur at the tree , that they can fly to CB. But Stannis is a careful man and sends the letter to Jon disguising himself as Ramsay , just in case the bird should fly to WF, as per usual. He may even use the second bird to inform Roose of his death, again posing as Ramsay, if Ramsay has continued on after his bride ... as I'm sure he would want to do.

I don't think Ramsay actually would write to Jon - that might give Jon a chance to recover "Arya" and Reek first , in which case, the jig would be up.. And if Jon did recover them first and Ramsay wanted to kill him to prevent exposure, Ramsay would act as he always has, using subterfuge and surprise attack. The only instance of him delivering a threat by letter was to Asha (and presumably Dagmer , since he says "I send you each a piece of prince " ) and that was worth a try, if he could frighten them into a retreat..."Linger in my lands and share their fate.".. But there was no skin in Jon's first letter.. The wedding summons was simply to rub salt in Jon's wounds..they wouldn't really want the NW to attend the wedding. (However, if Jon had been provoked to attend, that would have been the end of him.) ..again, worth a try .. When Ramsay really enjoys threatening people is after they already have reason to fear him .( His threats against Lady Dustin are not made to her , but to Roose ,in private.)

So I think that no one person, nor any combination of the various players at WF could be in possession of all the facts ( or all have compatible motives). This most probably means there was more than one separate author. (...what is left, however improbable , etc...)

And this points to an editing job by Bowen ,(Thorne ) & Co.

[Thucydides]

I think that theory of Stannis writing it is far too complicated -- not that GRRM couldn't have a much more complicated origin for the letter than most of us envision, but the number of things that have to be correct for that theory to work seem to make it far to fragile, and therefore less probable.

(Of course, I'll have to eat crow when TWoW comes out and one of the first chapters describes Stannis writing the letter and Marsh & co. altering it.)

[Mithras]

/snip

Nice analysis. I also was thinking that the letter might have been edited on the Wall. It is the best strategy to analyze the purpose of the possible authors in order to decipher it. I want to add another dimension to the subject.

What could be the reason Stannis faking his death after the Battle on Ice? Such a victory could be very useful to him if he declares it and asks for the help of other houses. Note that Stannis should well know that he does not have the means to storm the Walls of WF and take it while Roose and his army is inside. Therefore, I think the only reason to fake his death is that he wants to make Roose leave WF and take majority of his men to Dreadfort.

Once Stannis is smashed, Roose has no reason to stay at WF. So he thinks that once he is apparently dead, Roose will leave a small force with Ramsay and head for Dreadfort. Ramsay will go to CB to take his bride and his Reek back because he could not find them among the dead or any captives.

In this case, Stannis should think that Ramsay is not fool enough to send a letter to CB and demand his hostages. I think the same. I can think of no reason why Ramsay announce his coming to CB and give a chance to Stannis's remaining men and family to run, not to mention Jon Snow preparing him a surprise. Therefore, If Ramsay meant to head to CB (which I think he does) he should not announce his coming and I think he has the cunning to think that much.

Which brings us to the fact that Stannis wants to warn Jon of Ramsay's coming. He wants Jon to take his men and meet Ramsay on the way. Stannis himself will arrive from the back. Fire Eater's theory on Battle of Long Lake 2.0 has nice parallels here. While the NW was sleeping, Raymun led his host acroos the Wall. He met his bloody end along the shores of Long Lake where he was caught between the Stark of Winterfell and the Drunken Giant. Note that Lord Stark was beheaded during the battle and his younger brother took his position and avenged him.

If your theory of Benjen hiding in WF is true, then it makes a perfect match because once Ramsay leaves for CB and Stannis takes the WF after him, Benjen (Stark of Winterfell) can reveal himself. Benjen is the younger brother of Ned who is beheaded and now Benjen is the rightful lord of WF since all of Ned's children are seeminlgy missing or dead.

By the way, the plot to send Mance to rescue fArya is not there when Stannis was still on the Wall. So, even if Stannis knew the Rattleshirt glamour (which I agree with you he does), he has no chance to be aware of Mance's party and ploy, not until he interrogated Theon. Stannis is clever enough to think that some washerwomen were killed during the escape of Theon and fArya, thus it will all come Mance and the whole ploy will be revealed. That should be the second thing Stannis wants to warn Jon about.

The editors on the Wall did their best to provoke Jon so that he breaks his vows.

ETA: As to another reason why Stannis has to fake his death, it is Greatjon. The Freys still hold Greatjon hostage, and the news of Stannis smashing the Freys in the North would risk his life.

[alienarea]

Don't want to get into a line by line analysis of the letter again, been there a year ago.

Only highlighting three things:

The seven days of battle are a poetic exaggeration of someone with a strategic mindset puzzling it together from the intel that Stannis' is camped three days away from Winterfell and starving. Three days to get there, one day battle, three days to get back. The rational outcome is that Stannis gets defeated and killed, his head will be mounted at the wall of Winterfell, and Roose or Ramsay gets his sword. The letter was written before the outcome of the battle reaches Winterfell.

In Jon's first conversation with Mance, what did he call himself: "Where did they place the bastard?" (paraphrased).

Whose name is the only one explicitly written in the letter? Mance Ryder.

We do not know what Mance can do with ravens, but he wore a raven winged helm.

And being naked in a cold cage for all the north to see might be his way of describing being stuck in Winterfell.

Mance wrote it.

And the Hooded Man is Davos.

[Thucydides]

And the Hooded Man is Davos.

The more I look into it myself, the more I think that this may be the answer. Here's an excerpt from Davos's exchange with Wyman Manderly in his court at New Castle in White Harbor:

"He is a messenger, good-daughter," Lord Wyman said, "an onion of ill omen. Stannis did not like the answer his ravens brought him, so he has sent this... this smuggler." He squinted at Davos through eyes half-buried in rolls of fat. "You have visited our city before, I think, taking coin from our pockets and food off our table. How much did you steal from me, I wonder?"

Not enough that you ever missed a meal. "I paid for my smuggling at Storm's End, my lord." Davos pulled off his glove and held up his left hand, with its four shortened fingers.

ADwD, p268; bold emphasis added

The bolded portion echos Theon's exchange with the Hooded Man of Winterfell:

[says the hooded man,] "False is all you were. How is it you still breathe?"

"The gods are not done with me," Theon answered, wondering if this could be the killer... Oddly, he was not afraid. He pulled the glove from his left hand. "Lord Ramsay is not done with me."

ADwD, p669; bold emphasis added

I think that there is clearly a parallel here between Davos showing his hand to demonstrate that crimes have been paid for and Theon doing basically the same thing.

Is it far fetched to view this as a clue that Davos is the Hooded Man of Winterfell?

The only thing left to puzzle out is how Davos recognizes Theon. Perhaps he's heard descriptions of Theon that describe Theon's post-Ramsay haggardly look, and Davos surmises who he is.

[Mithras]

Don't want to get into a line by line analysis of the letter again, been there a year ago.

Only highlighting three things:

The seven days of battle are a poetic exaggeration of someone with a strategic mindset puzzling it together from the intel that Stannis' is camped three days away from Winterfell and starving. Three days to get there, one day battle, three days to get back. The rational outcome is that Stannis gets defeated and killed, his head will be mounted at the wall of Winterfell, and Roose or Ramsay gets his sword. The letter was written before the outcome of the battle reaches Winterfell.

In Jon's first conversation with Mance, what did he call himself: "Where did they place the bastard?" (paraphrased).

Whose name is the only one explicitly written in the letter? Mance Ryder.

We do not know what Mance can do with ravens, but he wore a raven winged helm.

And being naked in a cold cage for all the north to see might be his way of describing being stuck in Winterfell.

Mance wrote it.

And the Hooded Man is Davos.

Sorry but Stannis also knows he is three days away from WF, so he can talk about 7 days of battle as well. We know that Stannis interrogated Mance quite a long time, he said somewhere he talked to Mance for hours. He is familiar to Mance's words about Jon. We know that Stannis is very careul while writing a latter (Ser Jaime). And Stannis has the maester to send the raven as well. In Mance's case, you have to make assumptions about that.

Yet as bemused said, the letter Jon read is not the one Stannis sent. The conspirators on the Wall edited it.

The more I look into it myself, the more I think that this may be the answer. Here's an excerpt from Davos's exchange with Wyman Manderly in his court at New Castle in White Harbor:

The bolded portion echos Theon's exchange with the Hooded Man of Winterfell:

I think that there is clearly a parallel here between Davos showing his hand to demonstrate that crimes have been paid for and Theon doing basically the same thing.

Is it far fetched to view this as a clue that Davos is the Hooded Man of Winterfell?

The only thing left to puzzle out is how Davos recognizes Theon. Perhaps he's heard descriptions of Theon that describe Theon's post-Ramsay haggardly look, and Davos surmises who he is.

Davos might have returned from Skagos by the time Theon escaped from WF. But I dont think he is the hooded man because the hooded man knows Theon and Theon knows him. Besides even Asha could not recognize Theon because he looks like a creepy old man. Recognizing Theon at first sight is a very curious thing if you ask me. It requires that the hooded man should be in the WF for some time. Robett Glover (candidate for hooded man) should not recognize Theon at first unless he was well informed from inside. Same goes for Septon Chayle but I think he may had infiltrated WF without much problem.

[Bronn Urgandy]

Davos isnt the hooded man, the hooded man laughs at Theon, thats not how the Onion Lord rolls

[Mithras]

“As you wish. I have a gift for you, Lord Snow.” The king waved a hand at Rattleshirt. “Him.”

Lady Melisandre smiled. “You did say you wanted men, Lord Snow. I believe our Lord of Bones still qualifies.”

Jon was aghast. “Your Grace, this man cannot be trusted. If I keep him here, someone will slit his throat for him. If I send him ranging, he’ll just go back over to the wildlings.”

“Not me. I’m done with those bloody fools.” Rattleshirt tapped the ruby on his wrist. “Ask your red witch, bastard.”

Melisandre spoke softly in a strange tongue. The ruby at her throat throbbed slowly, and Jon saw that the smaller stone on Rattleshirt’s wrist was brightening and darkening as well. “So long as he wears the gem he is bound to me, blood and soul,” the red priestess said. “This man will serve you faithfully. The flames do not lie, Lord Snow.”

Perhaps not, Jon thought, but you do.

“I’ll range for you, bastard,” Rattleshirt declared. “I’ll give you sage counsel or sing you pretty songs, as you prefer. I’ll even fight for you. Just don’t ask me to wear your cloak.”

This quote gives the idea that Stannis knew the Mance-Rattleshirt plot from the beginning. They even tried to give the hint to Jon but Jon didnot understand.

ETA: And note that Mance says red witch to Mel here, in front of Stannis.

[Rooseman]

Leaning towards Mance. The wording in the letter is just way too similar to the way Mance talks.

I'm guessing, that Mance and Manderly met before reaching Winterfell. It's a bit too convenient, that Manderly arrives with everything that one could wish for, food- and entertainment-wise, but just happens to lack a singer, which gave Abel and his washerwomen reason to enter the castle...

Manderly is obviously against the Boltons and Freys, and with Stannis marching, it's not far fetched to assume that he was waiting for the battle as the right point in time to switch sides.

But when Stannis fakes the news of his death and the letter reaches Winterfell, it looks like this plan won't work any more. So, what now? Well, send a fabricated letter to Castle Black, giving Jon the option between meeting "Ramsay's" impossible terms or marching on Winterfell instead, and sprinke it with information Ramsay couldn't know if he was just making everything up. Tormund mentions, that it all might be bullshit. But Jon says "there's truth in there" and is convinced of it's authenticity.

If it wasn't Mance who's at least partly responsible for the letter, then I'm going with Ramsay. He might have captured one or more of the spearwifes and gotten all the information from them.

But I really, really hate the theory that Stannis wrote the pink letter. I find that super unlikely, as in "Tyrion is Aerys' bastard"-unlikely (another theory I hate with a passion :)). If I had a large amount of money, I'd bet this large amount on those two theories not coming true.

[Feliciano69]

I always figured the lack of shadow was because Stannis doesn't cast one, what with being in Robert's. Oddly that applies to Jon Snow as well, all that needs explaining for Snow is the flaming sword, and if he'll actually break his vows to become a King.

As a Stannis fan, I really don't mind Jon being Azor Ahai.

But for the love of R'hllor, don't make him King.

[Roddy the Ruin]

Could the letter have been from Manderly? I mean he is in WF at the moment so he has access to Mance and his spearwives. And In manipulating Jon to march south and with Stannis planning on faking his death they are poised to surround the Boltons and finish them like in this theory by Fire Eater.

http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/topic/88486-north-and-slavers-bay-after-jon-and-danys-departures/page-3#entry5278600

[Skoboe]

For the OP - Didn't Theon have all the ravens killed when he took Winterfell?

[Thucydides]

The problem with most non-Ramsay theories of authorship is that they're predicated on Jon doing something specific when he receives the letter. For all the author of the letter knows, Jon would just rumple it up and throw it in the trash.

Anyone who wants the help of wildlings would probably be much better off just asking for them. Jon Snow would probably consider it a relief for the Wildlings to have someplace to go besides the Wall or Mole Town, because then he wouldn't have to feed and clothe them. The letter just doesn't make sense unless it was written by Ramsey or Roose.

(Of course, I'll have to eat crow when TWoW comes out and one of the first chapters describes a non-Bolton writing the letter for reasons that seem entirely cogent in retrospect.)

[By the Old Gods Not theNew]

why did ramsay or roose ask for Mance's baby and sister-in-law? How do they know about them and what value are they to the Boltons?

@Ser Arthur D's Honor

i too have thought Manderly could be invovled w/ the mance, the link i posted up thread lays out one possible scenario.

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

why did ramsay or roose ask for Mance's baby and sister-in-law? How do they know about them and what value are they to the Boltons?

They might think the baby and Val have some political importance, which isn't unusual. Look at how Val is viewed, as a "princess." Also possible that Ramsay is just being sadistic and is just asking for them so he can kill them to punish Mance.