A black crow and a pink letter

[ghosts in winterfell]

Well, regardless of any Pink Letter theories, I think Mance's movements are easily explained. Without any sort of theory coming in to play, Mance was tasked with finding Arya, and once he had set out into the North, it would only take his hearing a rumor of the wedding at Winterfell to change gears. So without even speculating too much, I think assuming that Mance could easily find out about the change in plans is safe.

I think Mel's main directive was to find Jon's sister, and to that end, she thought this meant going to Long Lake. Meaning, I think Mance's primary objective was to retrieve Arya no matter what. So if he came upon information that said Arya was at Winterfell, he'd go to Winterfell. It may be too speculative an assumption, but I'd suspect that Mance and Mel arranged for some form of communication in the event that he couldn't secure Arya-- which is where the Pink Letter theory comes in. Because Mel's whole plan to get Jon to trust her falls apart if Mance is unsuccessful, so there needs to be a plan B, which is what I'm suggesting the letter might be in the event Mance wrote it.

Here's the thing though. I do think Mance has his own game in mind-- Rooseman quoted the passage about Mance's having a little "ploy" in mind, himself. I get the sense that Mance saw Mel's directive as an excuse that allowed him to pursue his own ends, and it happened to align well enough with what Mel wanted him to do-- more so once he found out Arya would be at Winterfell. And I hasten to add that I think this is the case regardless of whether Mance authored the letter-- I think he's looking to do something at Winterfell anyway. But I want to point out that if Mance also authored the letter, it wouldn't be part of whatever plan he has in mind for his own ends, but one set in place for Mel.

There's something that might be significant to point out wrt Mance, Manderly and the Umbers, though I don't know if that would take us off-track here. But I have suspicion that Mel isn't the only one using Mance as an operative. I'm leaning toward the possibility that Mel, a few Northmen and Mance himself have 3 different personal endgames in mind, all of which align in the sense that it puts Mance in Winterfell. I'm not really talking GNC here so much as I think we're seeing a conflagration of separate goals by different interests in terms of Mance's being at Winterfell. Whether Mance wrote the letter or not.

Also, since you and I discussed a lot of Bolton speculation in your thread and this letter came up, I still think "Ramsay wrote it" might be the default, and suspect if he's the author, that Roose sanctioned it.

This is great! I like the idea that Mance might have gotten tied up in the GNC, or is at least being used by Manderly & the Umbers.

I also agree that Mance is probably using the opportunity for his own goals. I've always thought he had very different motivations for taking on the assignment other than out of the goodness of his own heart. His interest in Winterfell's crypts makes me think that he hasn't given up on his quest to find the Horn of Winter.

[OnionAhaiReborn]

Ok, so 'Reek' is fairly commonly known around Winterfell, as is the knowledge of Ramsay's torture. "my Reek" still sticks out to me as a particularly Ramsay-ian phrasing, although upon searching I found this to be the only instance when the phrase was used, so I guess that's based on my feeling about how Ramsay speaks rather than any example. It still strikes me that this phrasing would have to indicate an exceptionally keen appraisal and reproduction of the Ramsay/Theon dynamic, if it came from Mance.

I would still say that the use of 'Reek' in a letter to Jon is odd, even if not inexplicable. Although I suppose if the idea is for Melisandre to explain the content of the letter to Jon this makes some sense, as she could tell Jon that Reek is Theon.

[Iona]

Can Mance speak old tongue? Tormund can, but I don't recall that being said of Mance.

I think I remember it being mentioned that Mance was singing in the old tongue at some point, so it would lead me to believe he knows it.

Oh, I found it, for some reason I only remembered the singing, even though it's mentioned in the same sentence he knows it too... :D

Half the wildling host had lived all their lives without so much as a glimpse of the Wall, Jon judged, and most of those spoke no word of the Common Tongue. It did not matter. Mance Rayder spoke the Old Tongue, even sang in it, fingering his lute and filling the night with strange wild music.

[Lady Gwynhyfvar]

Nice post OP but still they're called Crows everywhere right? And it's known they wear black. Not a big leap for someone who isnt a Wildling to say it imo.

Right, but in addition to this:

Yeah, they're called "crows." But the pink letter is the first time in all the books, that someone who hasn't lived north of the Wall called them "black crows" and that's pretty noteworthy.

There's also this:

In interpreting this, I think it's important to remember that the letter writing was written, not actually done. That is, the characters are not acting of their own free will but under the direction of the author. In which case things like language and references (both those that are included, and those that may have been excluded, like a scrap of skin) really matter as they are quite purposeful, most likely for the benefit of the reader.

;)

[butterbumps!]

Ok, so 'Reek' is fairly commonly known around Winterfell, as is the knowledge of Ramsay's torture. "my Reek" still sticks out to me as a particularly Ramsay-ian phrasing, although upon searching I found this to be the only instance when the phrase was used, so I guess that's based on my feeling about how Ramsay speaks rather than any example. It still strikes me that this phrasing would have to indicate an exceptionally keen appraisal and reproduction of the Ramsay/Theon dynamic, if it came from Mance.

I would still say that the use of 'Reek' in a letter to Jon is odd, even if not inexplicable. Although I suppose if the idea is for Melisandre to explain the content of the letter to Jon this makes some sense, as she could tell Jon that Reek is Theon.

Oar, I'm with you in that I don't think this proves it, but gives the theory a lot of weight next to the "Ramsay wrote it" default. It's not just the "black crow" thing, but the diction of the letter mirrors key phrases Mance has said to Jon-- most compelling to me is the slant on "for all the North/ world to see" wrt Mance's fate in the cage when Stannis burnt him repeated here with the assertion Mance is in a cage wearing women's skin, both as a public spectacle.

I think the "Ramsay wrote it" default requires a bit of piecing together too-- motive, especially when you add Roose into the equation, requires some examination as well. So there's some interrogation required for that position too, even if it's the default. Both positions are possible, I think, and there's a lot of virtue in trying to iterate out each scenario in context. Since the OP is exploring how Mance as the writer might work, I'm taking that hypothetical and making a case for it (for example, Ghost in Winterfell and I were exploring the "Ramsay did it" angle in a different thread not based on the Mance assumption).

[Mark Antony]

Still doesn't convince me that Ramsay couldn't of said it tbh. Maybe he just got done with a fresh torture/interrogation session with Mance or a Spearwife and the term "black crow" was on his mind :D

;)

[lojzelote]

Okay. So, Melisandre has a telepathic connection with Mance and sends him commands what to do? And how did she think that Jon would react once it would become obvious that Ramsay wrote no threats to him? Or do they already know that Stannis won/will win?

Really, 1, the "black crow" formulation is really a minor thing, as noted above, both "crow" and "black brother" are commonly used at the southern side of the Wall, 2, even if it's supposed to be a wildling-only expression, then it just might mean that Ramsay is using Mance's or the wildling women's vocabulary. After all, he allegedly tortured them for information.

Overall, I'm still pretty skeptical. Let's just remember the Jeyne Westerling is pregnant with Robb Jr. theory which hung mostly upon two different descriptions of Jeyne's hips from Catelyn's and Jaime's POV ("wide hips" as opposed to "narrow hips"). In comparison to that mistake, "black crow" vs "crow" is really a non-issue.

Not saying it is impossible, but personally I find the evidence lacking and unconvincing. Others may feel differently, I respect their opinion, but as far as I am concerned, I just don't buy it.

(Another possibility is that Mance (un)willingly joined Ramsey and they wrote the letter together, but that's something what some would never live down. :devil: )

[Lykos]

<snip>

Whether Mance is literate is not proven. However the author of the letter and the writer of the letter are not necessarily the same person. It all depends on what kind of scenario / context you imagine that this letter is being composed in.

Exactly, Mance could have dictated the letter to a maester, since the ravenry is another issue. This could explain the use of Reek instead of Theon too, if Mance needed to convince the Maester that he was passing on Ramsay´s words.

Also, I agree with Butterbumps! that Melisandre is the one we know that wants Jon in Winterfell for some reason and she stops at nothing to make her visions come true at the moment that is most convenient to her cause.

The only time I remember off hand where it is most unlikely that she had a hand in the fulfillment of her visions is the leech - killing of three of the five kings. Ironically she claims to be the cause of those

[butterbumps!]

Okay. So, Melisandre has a telepathic connection with Mance and sends him commands what to do? And how did she think that Jon would react once it would become obvious that Ramsay wrote no threats to him? Or do they already know that Stannis won/will win?

Why is it a telepathic connection? Why not just a plan they set in place before Mance left saying that Mance will send word in the event of failure, with Mel stipulating that he portray the situation in a particular dire fashion? Mel can see things in her fires, at least, she has absolute faith in her abilities to this end. The thing she's concerned about is bringing Jon to heel; looking into her fire to separate truth from lies is something she'd be taking for granted as the easy part.

Almost as much as she needs Jon to trust her, she needs Jon to stay at the Wall. If this letter was Mance's/ Mel's doing, I think she'd have accomplished her main goal just by provoking Jon to come to her and trust, and doing so to learn the truth of the matter, he'd not have chosen to leave. She'd have accomplished getting him to trust her, staying at the Wall, and not being held at fault for the failure of the Arya rescue mission.

ETA: Lykos-- just to clarify, I think Mel wants Jon at the Wall for the time being; she notes her powers are greater there, and notes Jon's magical power, and seems hellbent on convincing him to "join powers" there.

[OnionAhaiReborn]

Oar, I'm with you in that I don't think this proves it, but gives the theory a lot of weight next to the "Ramsay wrote it" default. It's not just the "black crow" thing, but the diction of the letter mirrors key phrases Mance has said to Jon-- most compelling to me is the slant on "for all the North/ world to see" wrt Mance's fate in the cage when Stannis burnt him repeated here with the assertion Mance is in a cage wearing women's skin, both as a public spectacle.

I think the "Ramsay wrote it" default requires a bit of piecing together too-- motive, especially when you add Roose into the equation, requires some examination as well. So there's some interrogation required for that position too, even if it's the default. Both positions are possible, I think, and there's a lot of virtue in trying to iterate out each scenario in context. Since the OP is exploring how Mance as the writer might work, I'm taking that hypothetical and making a case for it (for example, Ghost in Winterfell and I were exploring the "Ramsay did it" angle in a different thread not based on the Mance assumption).

Well, I do find this evidence somewhat compelling. I wouldn't disagree that Ramsay's motives for writing the letter also require some piecing together, but my purpose isn't precisely to argue that Ramsay wrote it, but rather to point to a particular phrase that I have trouble explaining coming from Mance. I take this to be exploring how Mance as the writer might- or might not, as the case may be- work, in a similar vein to what the OP lays out with the 'black crows' phrase.

[Jô Maltese]

The signature Trueborn Lord of Winterfell is also somewhat out of line with a Ramsay's authorship (no 'trueborn' in Ramsay's previous letters). Has anyone ever come up with a crackpot theory that Mance would be a bastard of Rickard Stark? The thought occurred to me sometimes, even before the Pink letter. Not that I really believe it, or have much to support the idea, but this would at least explain the signature or the motive (take Jon out of the Winterfell equation).

[Lykos]

Yeah, this is emberassing as my previous statement seems to be contradictory to yours, Butterbumps!. I have the feeling Mel wants Jon in Winterfell, but of course not before he is at least partly under her controll.

ETA: Yes, Mel and the powers of the Wall, she thinks she might tap into, I´m not sure how to read this. We know that the weirwoods work against the powers of the flames from the Ghost of High Heart and the fact that she needed Davos to bring her inside the magical defenses of Storm´s End. There´s only one weirwood we know of directly at the Wall at the Nightfort, so the Wall could be a combination of two forms of magic as the word "hinge" also sugests. Also, I´m fairly certain that Merl´s visions are manipulated and I don´t mean only by her preconception, maybe that´s why I get these mixed vibes.

Fact is, Stannis wants Jon to take Winterfell and Mel wants to destroy it´s godswood early when she arrived at the Wall.

[shk12344]

Exactly, Mance could have dictated the letter to a maester, since the ravenry is another issue. This could explain the use of Reek instead of Theon too, if Mance needed to convince the Maester that he was passing on Ramsay´s words.

How could a complete stranger in a place preparing for a war convince a maester to write an important letter in behalf of Ramsay??? People seem to be forgetting that there are thousands of battle tested, battle ready solders at Winterfell. I have hard time believing that Mance could somehow evade capture (who at this time would have known how Mance would have looked like) then able to get his hand on all the necessary items and write a well written, maester level letter and be knowledgeable enough send a raven to the wall. All awhile stuck in a hostile territory, being hounded by thousands of solders.

This makes Mace look like Superman.

[lojzelote]

Oar, I'm with you in that I don't think this proves it, but gives the theory a lot of weight next to the "Ramsay wrote it" default. It's not just the "black crow" thing, but the diction of the letter mirrors key phrases Mance has said to Jon-- most compelling to me is the slant on "for all the North/ world to see" wrt Mance's fate in the cage when Stannis burnt him repeated here with the assertion Mance is in a cage wearing women's skin, both as a public spectacle.

I think the "Ramsay wrote it" default requires a bit of piecing together too-- motive, especially when you add Roose into the equation, requires some examination as well. So there's some interrogation required for that position too, even if it's the default. Both positions are possible, I think, and there's a lot of virtue in trying to iterate out each scenario in context. Since the OP is exploring how Mance as the writer might work, I'm taking that hypothetical and making a case for it (for example, Ghost in Winterfell and I were exploring the "Ramsay did it" angle in a different thread not based on the Mance assumption).

Well, as far as similar formulations go, Theon is on it too

TWOW

with his

"He wants his bride back. He wants his Reek." It sounds eerily like "I want my bride back. . . . And I want my Reek." from the letter.

You know what, I think that GRRM is trolling us. :dunno:

[Jon Weirgaryen]

This makes Mace look like Superman.

He is, remember Qhorin who said "he was the best of us ...".

Like Rhaegar 2.0 with a ruby-remote-control?

[Lykos]

shk, well Mance is pretty ABEL if not super. But puns aside, there was a conflict forming at Winterfell which could be cause for the necessary chaos to take advantage of. Also there are several maesters present which might lead to a tangle responsibilities. The main problem that I have with my own idea is that it might be common knowledge among the maesters that Ramsay doesn´t use their services, which might be the case ( at least I think it possible ).

ETA: lojzelote, this is something I noticed too. That all used wordings are known to the Mel camp, but there are problems (lacking information on the readers part) regarding the way they found their way into the letter.

I think Mance is the most likely to know all of them in time to put them into the letter, but mel could know too in case she received news of Stannis.

What bothers me is what Jon is to make of this and Butterbumps! explanation that this is a way for Mel to show her usefullness to Jon is a good one. So what truths did Jon take from the letter?

[Rooseman]

The signature Trueborn Lord of Winterfell is also somewhat out of line with a Ramsay's authorship (no 'trueborn' in Ramsay's previous letters).

Yes, good catch! I found that a little odd as well. Let's have a look:

“The Bastard of Bolton?” asked Qarl, beside her. “Ramsay Bolton, Lord of Winterfell, he signs himself. But there are other names as well.” Lady Dustin, Lady Cerwyn, and four Ryswells had appended their own signatures beneath his. Beside them was drawn a crude giant, the mark of some Umber.

Those were done in maester’s ink, made of soot and coal tar, but the message above was scrawled in brown in a huge, spiky hand. It spoke of the fall of Moat Cailin, of the triumphant return of the Warden of the North to his domains, of a marriage soon to be made. The first words were, “I write this letter in the blood of ironmen,” the last, “I send you each a piece of prince. Linger in my lands, and share his fate.”

Ramsay Bolton, Lord of the Hornwood, it read, in a huge, spiky hand. The brown ink came away in flakes when Jon brushed it with his thumb.

With the pink letter, there is no "trueborn," and Jon notices neither the huge, spiky hand nor the blood as ink.

[Jon Weirgaryen]

When I read it, I took the word "trueborn" for information saying "this is as much the truth as Ramsay is trueborn".

And as it addresses Jon as "Bastard", who according to (R+L)^married=J supposedly is a trueborn child of a prince and a princess, well...

...Eta: it contains information from Robb's will, if read that way.

[butterbumps!]

Yeah, this is emberassing as my previous statement seems to be contradictory to yours, Butterbumps!. I have the feeling Mel wants Jon in Winterfell, but of course not before he is at least partly under her controll.

ETA: Yes, Mel and the powers of the Wall, she thinks she might tap into, I´m not sure how to read this. We know that the weirwoods work against the powers of the flames from the Ghost of High Heart and the fact that she needed Davos to bring her inside the magical defenses of Storm´s End. There´s only one weirwood we know of directly at the Wall at the Nightfort, so the Wall could be a combination of two forms of magic as the word "hinge" also sugests. Also, I´m fairly certain that Merl´s visions are manipulated and I don´t mean only by her preconception, maybe that´s why I get these mixed vibes.

Fact is, Stannis wants Jon to take Winterfell and Mel wants to destroy it´s godswood early when she arrived at the Wall.

I think there's a chance Mel wants Jon at Winterfell at some point, but I'd say that all her indications to this point have been about keeping Jon at the Wall. She wants Jon for some undisclosed magical end, which she seems to feel confident will be most efficient at the Wall. I don't think she'd try to trick Jon for the sake of getting him to do as Stannis bid wrt Winterfell; that is, given that she's playing her own game, and that her attention has turned subtly from Stannis to the fact that she's noticed a correlation between her magic and the Wall, I think her immediate aims are more focused there.

I'll admit, though. One thing I like about the Mel-Mance theory is the fact that Mel's been so adamant about getting Jon to believe in those "daggers in the dark" visions, that the irony here would be that she'd have been the one who caused it. As in, she was so keen on getting Jon to trust her and keep him for her own purposes that she set up a situation that completely backfired due to her misjudgment of Jon's character, creating the very condition she was trying to prevent.

[Rooseman]

Just something I wanted to add to my previous posting.

It would have been very easy for George to write something about the brown ink or "Jon recognized the huge, spiky hand." Either of those, but especially the latter, would have put all doubts about the authorship to rest. He didn't though - why?

If Ramsay wasn't the author, and the book had said something about a different handwriting, that would have been way too obvious. So, George would leave all revealing descriptions out instead.

I think he did the same thing with the Hooded Man - we didn't get a description, because it would have given the game away too easily. Probably someone we would have recognized.