Aegon is Real Version 3.0

[Fae Boleyn]

Varys probably thinks that Kevan deserves to know why he is killing him, so Varys tells him of the plan to get the Lannisters and Tyrells against each other and then for Aegon to come into the picture and unite the Lords. Kevan questions Varys and Varys tells him that Aegon has been raised to be a good King. He doesn't lie to him, he tells him the truth as he's dying. The only thing he's not clear on is which Aegon.

There's the Aegon Varys is thinking of, the right one, and the one Kevan is thinking of.

He still encouraged Kevan's assumption. There's still no logical motive to do so. In fact, that would have been the ideal moment to say that this trained for rule Aegon isn't that Aegon. Who's Kevan gonna tell? It might even be a comfort that the guy isn't descended from Aerys.

I agree he wanted Kevan to know why he had to kill him. I don't see why he needed to go along with Kevan's assumption.

[Light a wight tonight]

However: Aegon being real has real proof in the book, rrgardless of who has said so. This means GRRM has acknowledged this idea.

Varys and Illyrio aren't particularly reliable sources of information (they lie a lot) and JonCon was out of the loop for years so he only knows what he's been told (by Varys and Illyrio). Tyrion makes an assumption based on the setup on the riverboat s he could be assuming wrong. Who else is there?

[King of Winters]

He still encouraged Kevan's assumption. There's still no logical motive to do so. In fact, that would have been the ideal moment to say that this trained for rule Aegon isn't that Aegon. Who's Kevan gonna tell? It might even be a comfort that the guy isn't descended from Aerys.

I agree he wanted Kevan to know why he had to kill him. I don't see why he needed to go along with Kevan's assumption.

I don't see Varys encouraging Kevan's thought. He just goes on to say how he's been raised, amongst the commoners and is educated. It's only Kevan's cries of pain that stops Varys going on any longer.

[Suzanna Stormborn]

Varys and Illyrio aren't particularly reliable sources of information (they lie a lot) and JonCon was out of the loop for years so he only knows what he's been told (by Varys and Illyrio). Tyrion makes an assumption based on the setup on the riverboat s he could be assuming wrong. Who else is there?

Exactly. There is absolutely no proof at all that Aegon is the baby born from Rhaegar and Elia. these are the facts we know;

1. Clegane killed a baby boy in KL, smashed his head into a wall in a room with his mother and sister. no one at KL that day (or since) ever suggested it was not the real Aegon except Varys.

2. DwD-- a boy with dyed blue hair, around the same age Aegon should be, shows up with JC and they both claim he is Rhaegar's son. No proof whatsoever. Their eyes are not even the same color. And eye color is a very important aspect when looking for parentage in ASOIAF, it is not an infallible way to tell who fathered who, but it is important and mentioned a lot in the reading. So the fact that Rhaegar and fAegon have slightly different colored purple eyes....... to me, that is GRRM saying, 'this is not Rhaegar's kid"

[Fae Boleyn]

I don't see Varys encouraging Kevan's thought. He just goes on to say how he's been raised, amongst the commoners and is educated. It's only Kevan's cries of pain that stops Varys going on any longer.

I have my book now. Sort of, I have a kindle app that decided to load, so I shall paraphrase since this is all on my phone. Kevan says that Aegon, thinking about Rhaegar and Elia's Aegon, is dead.

Before Varys says his Aegon, Blue Aegon (come on, FAegon is harsh, the boy's first name is Aegon regardless) is here, he says no. No in response to Kevan saying he's dead.

That is encouraging Kevan's thought. Even if it's wordplay, it's encouragement. There's no need for it. Also, he says "No." As its own statement, as a direct answer, before going on. Now you could say that he did it out of kindness, let him die believing a falsehood... Only this falsehood isn't likely to be a comfort.

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

i keep telling people this is how it can also be interpreted, but they just always take it as the symbolism of a black dragon being portrayed as a red one.

Yeah!!! Finally I found someone who thinks this as well :D *doeshappydance*

True. And even if he is fake he's presenting as a red dragon, most of the GC aren't likely to be in on it - if any at all. So in principle they've already made this choice.

One point on what you said above regarding Brightflames. I don't know about anyone else, but I'm not talking about kids of Aerion's Lysene bastards. I'm talking about his legitimate son who vanishes from record after being passed over by the Great Council. I like the Brightflame idea from a mildly vindictive perspective as it'd make Blackfyre wrong and some proponents' attitude runs me really wrong, I like a Brightflame/Blackfyre mix because of the fake Blue Aegon options it has the fewest holes in terms of motive and such.

I will be happiest if he's real, and if he's a Blackfyre, well, it's possible, just not gospel. Except half the time here.

I believe that the information on Aerion's legit son will be in the World book, so withing the year we should get some closure on that, I hope.

1) Yes, it´s just a possibility. Implicit even, otherwise why not just say "the blackfyres are dead". The information comes from Illyrio which is also relevant. To Westeros, the Blackfyre threat is over.

2) no, it helps though. As readers we do have some need to close plots. There is of course some bias.

But it’s not just the Lys connection. You also have Serra´s hair, possible Targ link.

And that some important Pentos merchant lost a lot of political power by marrying her.

As to why not simply stating "the Blackfyres are dead", well, it wouldn't be a real mystery if GRRM did not leave some room open to speculate, and stating that the Blackfyres are dead would be something final.

As to Serra's hair: She's from Valyrian descent. So many people in the Known World are of Valyrian descent.

And important, Illyrio did not lose a lot of policital power. He lost political status. There's a difference. He still had enough money for bribes, either inside of Pentos or outside of it. Illyrio lost his status because of marrying Serra, but he did not lose political power. He's still incredibly influencal in Pentos, and outside.

3) Varys and Serra is by far the weakest element in the theory. Of course there is plenty to speculate Varys as a brightflame,. But his links to Serra end after the Lys connection and the slave status.

Of course, we know almost nothing of Serra, therefore this is to be expected.

1) well if said female line didn´t exist anymore, then there is no point in keeping the option open. And he should just say "the blackfyres are dead".. No, there is no bulletproff evidence of that line ever existing. Just enough to speculate with.

2) Aerion´s son wasn´t a bastard.. his grandson on the other hand (Varys lets asume) could be one.

There is nothing to speculate that Varys is a Brightflame (be that grandson or greatgrandson). The only argument on there is that he claims to have been born in Lys, as a slave. Same goes for Serra. Serra would most likely (agewise) have been a daughter of a Blackfyre in those theories. It's a hard way to go from grandson of a Prince or daughter of a Pretender to slave...? Especially being born a slave, meaning your mother would have been a slave as well...

Yes, he could have grown fond of the boy for sheltering him 12 years ago. Sure.

Still one has to wonder about the differential treatment the other Targ children got.

As to why Dany and Viserys were treated so differently... Rhaella could not be reached on Dragonstone, and switching Dany was essentially impossible. Switching Viserys would have been even more impossible, because he was recognizable as Viserys, and there was no exact double.

Varys and Illyrio had Aegon hidden away. Aegon, who had a better claim than Dany and Viserys. Aegon needed to be hidden, and Robert needed to be kept busy. Viserys and Dany would have been the cover, everybody would be looking at them and watching them, allowing for Varys and Illyrio to raise Aegon in peace and secrecy, until the time was right.

I would say that Aegon being real is a theory.

At first I thought JonCon was blinded by his love for Rhaegar, but now I suspect JC knows fAegon is Blackfyre.

JonCon still thinks of Aegon as Rhaegars son. And it could be that JonCon was blinded by his love for Rhaegar. But he is also shown to have been highly suspicious of Varys. I cant imagine JonCon not being suspicious about Aegon at the beginning as well. And JonCon knew both Rhaegar and Elia, and would have searched for bits of Aegon´s parents in Aegon´s face. I can´t see him not doing that, JonCon is a logical thinking man with trust issues against Varys. He´d think before acting.

[King of Winters]

I have my book now. Sort of, I have a kindle app that decided to load, so I shall paraphrase since this is all on my phone. Kevan says that Aegon, thinking about Rhaegar and Elia's Aegon, is dead.

Before Varys says his Aegon, Blue Aegon (come on, FAegon is harsh, the boy's first name is Aegon regardless) is here, he says no. No in response to Kevan saying he's dead.

That is encouraging Kevan's thought. Even if it's wordplay, it's encouragement. There's no need for it. Also, he says "No." As its own statement, as a direct answer, before going on. Now you could say that he did it out of kindness, let him die believing a falsehood... Only this falsehood isn't likely to be a comfort.

The "no" is Varys saying that his Aegon is alive and is here. We don't get to read what happened in Kevan's head afterwards as Varys goes on with his speech, but I don't think Varys wanted to encourage Kaven to believe in anyway, he made it ambiguous. Kevan just automatically thinks of Rhaegar's Aegon and doesn't question Varys, or doesn't have a chance to.

[FC_Lymond]

The problem with the Aegon as a Blackfyre theory is "Why did they do it?"

That's where there are such big holes in it. Who raises their son as a fake person? That's what Illyrio chose to do? And then supporters turn around and use his affection for Aegon as support for their theory.

If they had a Blackfyre heir, they could have raised him as a Blackfyre, quietly. Plenty of Blackfyres and their supporters have lived in Essos for decades.

And there's more problems. Why use JonCon? Who is Septa Lemore? Why did they want him to marry Dany? The blackfyre theory explains very little I think. I can't figure out why it's so popular here.

I have come around to the idea that the likeliest plot is that Aegon is fake, but there's another Blackfyre out there. Probably hidden in the GC or maybe somewhere in Westeros. The plotters will either get Aegon to the throne, or married to Dany, then expose him and crown a Blackfyre in the confusion. It works much better when you think about the plan to marry Dany. I would say it makes JonCon and Septa Lemore work much better too.

So for me odds would be something like:

42% Aegon fake, BF exists ready to go

37% Aegon real

21% Aegon Blackfyre

[MegaAIP]

Because ®Aegon was their endgame piece. The dessert. The main star of the show.

Viserys and Daenerys were supposed to pave the road for Aegon.

They were taking every precaution with him so that he could be the very best king possible.

also they hedged their bets

Daenerys was sold to the kahl as a way to get his army for Viserys, in turn Arianne was pledged to Viserys. But Viserys was messed up and too brash etc... monkey in the wrench

Daenerys who was sold turns out the stronger of the two oh and she has dragons too so they start to pave the way for her but she messes up and stays in meereen

Aegon (who is real) is the best bet. As you said the end game

[the Scorpion Knight]

Except Aegon being Real isn't a theory.

I too thik he's real ( reasons Later)

1) The male line of house blackfyre is dead. The Blackfyre theory implies that Aegon is son of someone from a female line. No crack there

2) true, just hits. and circumstancial evidence. BTW i believe in the Aegon blackfyre + brightflame theory.. So IMO Varys and Serra are Brighflames.

3) he has children clothes

or serra was boufght initially to pose as the boys mother and as Illyrios bastard

The thing is we don't know how old Faegon is. Tyrion estimates his age as younger as he should be if he truly was Rhae-Rhae's Son.

Tyrion is a horrible ageguesses jon snow as a reminder

Tyrion estimates. He's not the terminator. He can be wrong.

Honestly, the biggest reason i am a legitimist is because seeing people calling FAegon disturbs me in my sleep.

MUST WIPE OUT THOSE NASTY LITTLE FAEGONSES! GOLLUM! GOLLUM!!

like I said above Tyrion is a horrible ageguesser

(Full disclosure I lean faegon)

This always bothered me about the faegon arguments. If Varys plan is to get Aegon to safety then the pwp just has to buy him time. Be close enough to confuse everyone until things have calmed down and someone notices. But by the Aegon is gone and safe.

Once it turned out the baby was beaten to unrecognizable the plan changed.

Perfectly logical. No psychics required.

exactly

Quentyn never claimed to be a dragon.

Ellia was not the princess of Dorne.

but he claimed to have the blood of the dragon ad elia WAS a princess of dorne (not a ruling but till ariannes birth SHE was Dorans heir)

to The reasons why I think Aegon is real:

- his resemblence in Character to the Martells and Jon snow.

- talent (he is fluent in serveral languages and a sword fighter)

- people like barristan selmy and JonC aren't killed they incrporateed

[Suzanna Stormborn]

JC only announces that Aegon is Rhaegars long lost son when he is trying to win over the GC to their cause. JonCon has his own agenda, namely--getting his house and honor back. When he gets to Westeros, what is the very first thing he does? takes his father's castle back and stands there reminiscing about Rhaegar and how 'this boy's' eye color isn't exactly the same as Rhaegars. JC wants to regain his honor before he dies of greyscale. I have no idea what his original motivation was, and why he agreed to parade Aegon around as the lost Targ heir, but my guess is that Illyrio made some deal with him (just like Varys did with Jorah), or just talked him into it. In case no one has noticed we have a lot of very persuasive characters guiding others to do as they please. SOmeone like Illyrio, so rich and decadent, house full attractive servants, any food and wine you want; he has a lot of tools and grandeur to do as he likes, and to persuade others. Money talks. Who has funded Aegon's education since he was a kid? who hired Septa Lemore?--Illyrio, Illyrio is the architect behind this whole thing and he is looking for the big pay-off.

Why in the world would Illyrio care so much about helping Rhaegar Targaryen's son?? Did him and Rhaegar ever even meet? I don't think so.

Jorah and JonCon are the same, they were both exiled from Westeros and were brought under the Blackfyre wing to help orchestrate this very Long Con in return for their slates being wiped clean and a return to their homeland with Honor.

[Lost Melnibonean]

R+L=J is a theory. It may be a flawless theory but a theory nonetheless.

Aegon being fake is a theory. It has valid points that can be interpreted to claim Aegon is fake, I give it that but it is still also a theory.

However: Aegon being real has real proof in the book, rrgardless of who has said so. This means GRRM has acknowledged this idea.

So then Jon is the son of Ned and Wylla! Awesome. That makes it so much simpler.

[Chatty Duelist]

So then Jon is the son of Ned and Wylla! Awesome. That makes it so much simpler.

No actually. The official postition is that Jon is the bastard son of Eddard Stark, and until proven otherwise he is the bastard. It could be Ashara, it could be Wylla, it could be Lyanna, it could be Hodor. But until proven otherwise JON IS EDDARD STARK'S BASTARD.

[Suzanna Stormborn]

No actually. The official postition is that Jon is the bastard son of Eddard Stark, and until proven otherwise he is the bastard. It could be Ashara, it could be Wylla, it could be Lyanna, it could be Hodor. But until proven otherwise JON IS EDDARD STARK'S BASTARD.

Official position? to whom exactly? Someone with no reading comprehension skills?

[Chatty Duelist]

Official position? to whom exactly? Someone with no reading comprehension skills?

In the book, for every single character?

[Lost Melnibonean]

No actually. The official postition is that Jon is the bastard son of Eddard Stark, and until proven otherwise he is the bastard. It could be Ashara, it could be Wylla, it could be Lyanna, it could be Hodor. But until proven otherwise JON IS EDDARD STARK'S BASTARD.

But The Ned told Robert that his bastard's mum was Wylla. :)

[LordToo-Fat-to-Sit-a-Horse]

As to why not simply stating "the Blackfyres are dead", well, it wouldn't be a real mystery if GRRM did not leave some room open to speculate, and stating that the Blackfyres are dead would be something final.

As to Serra's hair: She's from Valyrian descent. So many people in the Known World are of Valyrian descent.

And important, Illyrio did not lose a lot of policital power. He lost political status. There's a difference. He still had enough money for bribes, either inside of Pentos or outside of it. Illyrio lost his status because of marrying Serra, but he did not lose political power. He's still incredibly influencal in Pentos, and outside.

There is nothing to speculate that Varys is a Brightflame (be that grandson or greatgrandson). The only argument on there is that he claims to have been born in Lys, as a slave. Same goes for Serra. Serra would most likely (agewise) have been a daughter of a Blackfyre in those theories. It's a hard way to go from grandson of a Prince or daughter of a Pretender to slave...? Especially being born a slave, meaning your mother would have been a slave as well...

As to why Dany and Viserys were treated so differently... Rhaella could not be reached on Dragonstone, and switching Dany was essentially impossible. Switching Viserys would have been even more impossible, because he was recognizable as Viserys, and there was no exact double.

Varys and Illyrio had Aegon hidden away. Aegon, who had a better claim than Dany and Viserys. Aegon needed to be hidden, and Robert needed to be kept busy. Viserys and Dany would have been the cover, everybody would be looking at them and watching them, allowing for Varys and Illyrio to raise Aegon in peace and secrecy, until the time was right.

1) Sure, except for the fact, that we are initially told the blackfyres are gone for good. The white book is worded to make us believe the Blackfyre threat is over. Jaime Leaves little room for speculation. Illyrio is the one who adds information and opens the plot.

2) It´s not just being blonde. Its the two color hair. kind of Elaena.

3) He did. "he palace gates were closed to me thereafter, but I did not care"

He lost a lot of influence, which is kind of power. I´m sure he reconstructed it afterwards. But it is explicitly said that Serra had a huge cost, but she was worth it.

4) There is plenty of hints. Lys connection. Moqorro´s vision (depending of the interpretation, of course, but a Brighflame does bring new light to the Bright dragon). The mummer link (Remember the mummer´s incident during the Hedge Knight). Another tematic link is that Aerion threatened Aegon with castration. Varys was castrated (Blood magic?, King´s blood?).

Varys also knows the secrets of the Red Keep, which we are told only those with Blood of the Dragon should know.

Varys shaves his head. Aegon V shaved his to hide his identity.

The man who stepped through the door was plump, perfumed, powdered, and as hairless as an egg.

His name does have a "targ-like" ending. "rys"

There is plenty of hints of a Varys Brightflame.

[Fae Boleyn]

The "no" is Varys saying that his Aegon is alive and is here. We don't get to read what happened in Kevan's head afterwards as Varys goes on with his speech, but I don't think Varys wanted to encourage Kaven to believe in anyway, he made it ambiguous. Kevan just automatically thinks of Rhaegar's Aegon and doesn't question Varys, or doesn't have a chance to.

OK.

Let's take it this way. Someone says "Dead. He's dead." The person they're talking to says "No." Then goes on, after that one word declarative statement, to talk about a person being here who has been raised to rule, yadda yadda. And it was a declarative statement, it's written as "No." Punctuation matters. :) If he was just talking about his Aegon and Blue Aegon is a fake, "No, he's here," makes more sense. Writing it as it is makes the "no" a response in itself, and the "He is here" and onwards further information.

What is the most likely reason to say "No."? If the dead person actually isn't dead. That is what is implied in the way Varys spoke, in how Martin wrote his speaking. Now, if Blue Aegon is Aegon Mopatis/Blacyfyre/Brightflame, there's no point implying this to an about to be corpse.

It is left a little ambiguous, but of course it would be. This is going into meta reasons, but GRRM doesn't want to give up the game too soon. Tbh I don't think we'll ever know for sure if Blue Aegon is real, the more I think about it the more I think his identity will never be incontrovertibly proven or disproven, regardless of whether or not not he wins. (It's unlikely but tbh I think real or fake he's one of the better remaining options.)

[LordToo-Fat-to-Sit-a-Horse]

As to why Dany and Viserys were treated so differently... Rhaella could not be reached on Dragonstone, and switching Dany was essentially impossible. Switching Viserys would have been even more impossible, because he was recognizable as Viserys, and there was no exact double.

Varys and Illyrio had Aegon hidden away. Aegon, who had a better claim than Dany and Viserys. Aegon needed to be hidden, and Robert needed to be kept busy. Viserys and Dany would have been the cover, everybody would be looking at them and watching them, allowing for Varys and Illyrio to raise Aegon in peace and secrecy, until the time was right.

Nonsense. They could fake their deaths just as easily.

If we are talking about claims, i have to say either Dany or Viserys are better in terms of legitimacy. No one can question their claim as Targaryanes.

A kid who comes back from the grave on the other hand..

[MegaAIP]

I see more a problem with hiding a Blackfyre, it would be a train wreck if that came out down the road.