The Brightfyre theory

[Frey family reunion]

Were Varys and Illyrio aware of the betrothal contract that Prince Doran and Ser Willem Darry had made? And why didn't Darry or someone tell Viserys about this agreement before his death?

To the first question: no. As to the second, Viserys was an immature child when it was decided, and he wasn't ready for the information. --SSM

http://www.westeros.org/Citadel/SSM/Month/2012/07/

I'm not one hundred percent sure of the relevance of the quote, but here's my theory. Yes Oberyn and Doran entered into a marriage contract with Darry while Viserys and Dany were in Braavos. However, when it became apparent that Viserys was not going to drum up any support (one of Dany's earliest memories was the Golden Company laughing at Viserys when he made his pitch) and when Jon Arryn got word of Doran's plans and they had their talk, this plan was scrapped. My guess is Varys then approached Doran because he needs both the Dorne's support militarily and he needs Doran to vouch that "Aegon" is his nephew to the skeptical lords.

[J. Stargaryen]

In short, yes. Unless and until the text gives us more. I think the connections are really thin. The Blackfyre hints are much more ubiquitous without being overly obvious...most people didn't catch it all the first time.

Aerion is a minor historical footnote, the Blackfyres Loom much larger.

Eh, like I mentioned earlier, I'm just surprised by your dismissive tone (shoehorning, odd, etc.) considering that the OP you posted the other day is based largely on the number 13. And I don't mean that as a shot at your theory. I enjoyed it and have a similar idea myself, as I posted in your thread. But it looks to me like you have an inconsistent standard when it comes to evidence, based on how well a theory suits you.

As for Aerion being a historical footnote, okay, but he's also the main antagonist of THK. In other words, that makes him a fairly prominent character in the ASoIaF universe.

[LordToo-Fat-to-Sit-a-Horse]

I guess call me nobody then because I believe that "Aegon's" true(?) identity is what Illyrio and Varys is using to convince the higher up members of the Golden Company to geth their members to abandon their contract and get behind "Aegon". But regardless, that's not the main point. It has been argued that Illyrio is a Blackfyre because of his clout with the Golden Company. My argument is that Illyrio's clout has nothing to do with his birth it has to do with his money, influence and schemes.

didn´t mean it like that. Sry. Higher up members sound like too many people to have involved in such a secret. Myles Toyne, sure. Did Myles tell HS? not that sure..but possible.

Would he tell the rest of the Golden Company? even High members? unlikely. The secret would be out in days. One fool who drinks too much, and the blackfyre conspiracy is over.

Illyrio explicitly states gold wasn´t what made the GC sign the contract to support (f)Aegon. Influence sure. But that influence makes more sense if he is blackfyre.

[Lost Melnibonean]

No... no one said anything about genes where did you get that from? I was running with (what I thought was) your suggestion that since Aerion often threatened to castrate Egg, it makes sense that his son might also be cruel and into castration. Targaryen madness is hereditary, but I did forget that Aerion would not have been around to rub off on his son.

As to the second question, also "no" because I do not ascribe to the proposed theory.

There's been an odd trend on the boards recently to try to shoehorn Aerion Brightflame into the story and I don't know why. But if people want to find him or his descendants somewhere, that seems a better place to look than a major character like Faegon.

Aerion does have a part to play. So does his legitimate son. But I think their part is coming in a future D&E tale. Aerion's bastard in Lys though...

[Lost Melnibonean]

I really don't understand why all three (Illyrio, Varys, and Serra) have to be secret Targaryens. There is really no textual evidence whatsoever that Varys ever had a sister. Isn't it enough that Varys is a secret Targ and Illyrio may have married another offshoot of the Targaryen family?

I kind of agree with you. Ever since I reread Dance the first time I believed Illyrio was a descendant of some daughter of House Blackfyre. But I think Varys must descend from some Targaryen too and being born a slave in Lys at least points the reader to Aerion's bastard. I'd like to see another hint about Serra.

[Frey family reunion]

didn´t mean it like that. Sry. Higher up members sound like too many people to have involved in such a secret. Myles Toyne, sure. Did Myles tell HS? not that sure..but possible.

Would he tell the rest of the Golden Company? even High members? unlikely. The secret would be out in days. One fool who drinks too much, and the blackfyre conspiracy is over.

Illyrio explicitly states gold wasn´t what made the GC sign the contract to support (f)Aegon. Influence sure. But that influence makes more sense if he is blackfyre.

If Illyrio's status as a Blackfyre is the source of his influence with the Golden Company then why are they so quick to abandon his plans and strike out on their own with his "son"? I think everyone gets a little too narrowly focused on one aspect of the books (the Targaryens) and forget that there is a number of other factions out there that have an ax to grind. Why does Illyrio want the Golden Company to meet Dany at Volantis. Illyrio has agents among the Volantis he knows that the Volantese plan on taking Dany out. He knows that the Red Priests are inciting the slaves in Volantis using Dany's name. Is it a coincidence that there is also a horde of Dothraki under one of Dragon's former lieutenants that are posed right outside of Volantis as well? Illyrio isn't a Targaryen his ax to grind is with the Valyrians who control Volantis.

[Lost Melnibonean]

Read on, you'll see I was actually agreeing with Veltigar, while looking for a little clarification ;)

Since no one has answered my second question (posed three times!) -- I do think it could work in the reverse, but would suggest that the connection between Illyrio and the Golden Company (not mentioned until your post) is the most compelling hint that he is, in fact, the Blackfyre.

Um, I thought I at least proposed an answer to your second question...

[LordToo-Fat-to-Sit-a-Horse]

the Lys and slavery link just shouts a connection between Varys and Serra.. but yeah, there isn´t much.

of course, Varys brightflame could be angry at the Targaryens and plots with the last scion of house blackfyre to steal the Iron throne.

So they plan for Illyrio to have a son with Valyrian looks, therefore they need an unknown woman with Valyrian blood. Lys is of course the first place you would look for such...

Meanwhile Varys goes to KL to destroy house Targaryen from inside.... once the boy is a grown man, they attempt the conquest of westeros, making him look like Aegon targaryen, while the seven kingdoms are devastated by winter and the war of the five kings (carefully stirred by Varys).

thoughts?

[LordToo-Fat-to-Sit-a-Horse]

If Illyrio's status as a Blackfyre is the source of his influence with the Golden Company then why are they so quick to abandon his plans and strike out on their own with his "son"? I think everyone gets a little too narrowly focused on one aspect of the books (the Targaryens) and forget that there is a number of other factions out there that have an ax to grind. Why does Illyrio want the Golden Company to meet Dany at Volantis. Illyrio has agents among the Volantis he knows that the Volantese plan on taking Dany out. He knows that the Red Priests are inciting the slaves in Volantis using Dany's name. Is it a coincidence that there is also a horde of Dothraki under one of Dragon's former lieutenants that are posed right outside of Volantis as well? Illyrio isn't a Targaryen his ax to grind is with the Valyrians who control Volantis.

Influence with just the Commander of the Golden Company. Myles toyne, who might have been a high officer during Maelys time (not sure about the timeline)

Volantis: because without ships dany would have to take the Demon road from meereen, which takes her to Volantis. Waiting for her there was a good bet. Of course Illyrio didn´t expect dany would stay to "rule".

[Lost Melnibonean]

While we are talking about Aegon (I don't want to hijack this thread), does anyone have a quick explanation to reconcile the doubt in my heart that says Aegon is real purely because the Woods Witch prophecy thing? The fact that she predicted AA would come from the line of Mad King and his sis which only leaves Viserys (deceased), Rhaegar (deceased), Rhaenys (deceased) and the 3 heads of the dragon super combo Dany-Aegon-Jon aka AA aka PtwP. I'm confused about this. Maybe only one is AA but it seems like it is meant to be the combination.

Sure, it's either Dany or Jon unless the GOHH was wrong.

[Lost Melnibonean]

of course, no one believes the GC members knows and hold the secret of (f)Aegon´s real identity.

Myles toyne did the blood contract with Illyrio, he is the one who knows Ilyrio´s cards (some of). How much did Myles tell Harry strickland (HS) is unknown. May be no current member of the Golden Company actually knows (f)Aegon is a blackfyre, or that his father Illyrio was one (if this theory is correct) even if in terms of plot developing it makes sense that at the end the GC would be supporting the blackfyre candidate for the IT.

Um, I do...

[Lost Melnibonean]

I'm not one hundred percent sure of the relevance of the quote, but here's my theory. Yes Oberyn and Doran entered into a marriage contract with Darry while Viserys and Dany were in Braavos. However, when it became apparent that Viserys was not going to drum up any support (one of Dany's earliest memories was the Golden Company laughing at Viserys when he made his pitch) and when Jon Arryn got word of Doran's plans and they had their talk, this plan was scrapped. My guess is Varys then approached Doran because he needs both the Dorne's support militarily and he needs Doran to vouch that "Aegon" is his nephew to the skeptical lords.

The George has said that Varys and Illyrio were not aware of Doran's scheme to wed Viserys and Arianne.

[LordToo-Fat-to-Sit-a-Horse]

Um, I do...

you do?

Don´t you think it very reckless that HS would share that information with, i don´t know, like 20 people of uncertain trustiness and even loyalty?

how is it that half of the world doesn´t yet know Aegon is a blackfyre?

ETA; JonCon does have some friends in the Golden Company. If the members knew, shouldnt one of them have already told JonCon that Aegon isn´t really Rhaegar´s son, and that Jon is supporting the wrong dragon?

Like Franklyn flowers who seemed like good frinds with JOn?

[J. Stargaryen]

So, are you on board? With Serra Brightflame & Illyrio Blackfyre?

More or less. I think we haven't quite put the puzzle together yet, but I think the Varys-Aerion connections are pieces to that puzzle.

[Frey family reunion]

Influence with just the Commander of the Golden Company. Myles toyne, who might have been a high officer during Maelys time (not sure about the timeline)

Volantis: because without ships dany would have to take the Demon road from meereen, which takes her to Volantis. Waiting for her there was a good bet. Of course Illyrio didn´t expect dany would stay to "rule".

Actually you have it reversed, Illyrio tells Tyrion that if Dany is to go by sea then she has to stop in Volantis for supplies. Illyrio also changes the subject when Tyrion brings up the fact that surely Volantis has no love for Dany. Now why does Illyrio think Dany is going by sea? Well it just so happens that Xaro was in Mereen at the time offering Dany thirteen of his ships. Also why does Illyrio not send a warning to Dany to avoid Volantis? My guess is that his actual target is Volantis. Dany's arrival sets off the slave revolt, and the Dothrakis, Dany is probably killed in the process, and the Golden Company just happens to be on hand to help the slaves to get revenge on Dany's killers.

[Frey family reunion]

The George has said that Varys and Illyrio were not aware of Doran's scheme to wed Viserys and Arianne.

It doesn't matter if they were aware of Doran's initial plan or not. The point is uber cautious Doran jettisons the plan himself because he realizes Viserys can not drum up the necessary support and Jon Arryn himself gets wind of Doran's schemes concerning Viserys (whether or not anyone knew those plans included a wedding contract).

"Is it true he tried to raise Dorne for Viserys?"

"No one speaks of it, but yes. Ravens flew and riders rode, with what secret messages I never knew. Jon Arryn sailed to Suspear to return Prince Lewyn's bones, sat down with Prince Doran, and ended all the talk of war."

If Varys is serious about trying to convince Westeros that "Aegon" is the real deal, he almost has to go to Doran to get him on board, because Doran would be the perfect one to vouch for his "nephew". Also Doran has the motive to remove the Baratheons and Lannisters.

[LordToo-Fat-to-Sit-a-Horse]

Actually you have it reversed, Illyrio tells Tyrion that if Dany is to go by sea then she has to stop in Volantis for supplies. Illyrio also changes the subject when Tyrion brings up the fact that surely Volantis has no love for Dany. Now why does Illyrio think Dany is going by sea? Well it just so happens that Xaro was in Mereen at the time offering Dany thirteen of his ships. Also why does Illyrio not send a warning to Dany to avoid Volantis? My guess is that his actual target is Volantis. Dany's arrival sets off the slave revolt, and the Dothrakis, Dany is probably killed in the process, and the Golden Company just happens to be on hand to help the slaves to get revenge on Dany's killers.

didn´t recall that. thanks.

pretty interesting the Volantis thing. Not sure what to make of it though.

[Lord Martin]

Eh, like I mentioned earlier, I'm just surprised by your dismissive tone (shoehorning, odd, etc.) considering that the OP you posted the other day is based largely on the number 13. And I don't mean that as a shot at your theory. I enjoyed it and have a similar idea myself, as I posted in your thread. But it looks to me like you have an inconsistent standard when it comes to evidence, based on how well a theory suits you.

As for Aerion being a historical footnote, okay, but he's also the main antagonist of THK. In other words, that makes him a fairly prominent character in the ASoIaF universe.

Night's King and the Last Hero are much larger stories within the ASOIF story itself.

Also, when discussing the age of heroes, my standards for textual support drop. Its quite understandable that what happened 8,000 years ago would be conflated, mixed up and twisted. Myth invites speculation.

Fairly recent Targaryen history shouldn't be so easily confused or mixed up.

[40 Thousand Skeletons]

GRRM said the third head doesnt have to be a targaryen.

Well that clears that up. I will assume then that Jon alone or Jon/Dany combo is AA/PtwP and Rhaegar vision in HotU was wrongish about baby Aegon being the prince, but the vision Rhaegar also counted his daughter as one of the 3 instead of Dany so I can totally believe that, doubt reconciled. Thank you.

the Lys and slavery link just shouts a connection between Varys and Serra.. but yeah, there isn´t much.

of course, Varys brightflame could be angry at the Targaryens and plots with the last scion of house blackfyre to steal the Iron throne.

So they plan for Illyrio to have a son with Valyrian looks, therefore they need an unknown woman with Valyrian blood. Lys is of course the first place you would look for such...

Meanwhile Varys goes to KL to destroy house Targaryen from inside.... once the boy is a grown man, they attempt the conquest of westeros, making him look like Aegon targaryen, while the seven kingdoms are devastated by winter and the war of the five kings (carefully stirred by Varys).

thoughts?

This would work just as well as a theory for me except for 2 details: Serra's hands preserved in a jar (WHAT?) and the mention of one of Dany's books being presumably about Serra (a well-thumbed tome about the adventures of a girl in a Lysene pillowhouse).

I just think Serra is too important for her to be a random whore, so then who is she? And like you said, the Lys slave connection is there, it just isn't super strong.

[J. Stargaryen]

Night's King and the Last Hero are much larger stories within the ASOIF story itself.

Also, when discussing the age of heroes, my standards for textual support drop. Its quite understandable that what happened 8,000 years ago would be conflated, mixed up and twisted. Myth invites speculation.

Fairly recent Targaryen history shouldn't be so easily confused or mixed up.

Your first two paragraphs are fair enough, but we're not exactly talking about Targaryen history. We're talking about Blackfyres and exiles that no one seems to have kept tabs on. At least no one we know of. Also, much like with other mysteries, GRRM has purposely kept certain details from us. And that goes for whichever version of the story is true.