Arya in TWOW Arya is in BIG trouble... (Mercy chapter spoilers)

[Whitering]

Death is her gift. Buffy wants her line back, LOL.

I don't think her killing Raff is going to benefit the IB? It looks bad for Braavos that a Westerosi traveling with a high ranking official was murdered by some member of an actor's troupe. And it's going to look even worse when they won't be able to find the murderer.

So, I think this going to be bad for Arya, because she blew her cover in a big way, she's seen leaving with Raff, it's obvious she would be the number 1 suspect. I'd like this to be the final rift with the FM that gets her back to Westeros, but given that it seems Dany spends most of the book still in Essos I'm not sure what will happen with Arya.

Can't it look like a threat? Since nobody will assume a 10 year old girl did it, but maybe she was a junior spy that led him to his death at the hands of another.

[sweetsunray]

Death is her gift. Buffy wants her line back, LOL.

I don't think her killing Raff is going to benefit the IB? It looks bad for Braavos that a Westerosi traveling with a high ranking official was murdered by some member of an actor's troupe. And it's going to look even worse when they won't be able to find the murderer.

So, I think this going to be bad for Arya, because she blew her cover in a big way, she's seen leaving with Raff, it's obvious she would be the number 1 suspect. I'd like this to be the final rift with the FM that gets her back to Westeros, but given that it seems Dany spends most of the book still in Essos I'm not sure what will happen with Arya.

They could twist the scandal around: if Raff's body goes missing and the girl's they can swich it. Before the Westerosi know what's going on, the Sealord, and other people of Braavos could cry murder on a pervert going for a young actress like that, probably killed her, and then ran... And of course, with a Queen like that whoring around, no wonder she's got some murderous, child raping perv in her retinue. Even her own Faith Militant washed their hands off her, making her walk naked in the streets of King's Landing, and she's awaiting trial. Remember Raff left the job to go with a kid actress. And the whole Westeros mission is about to watch a mummer's show on the debauchery of that queen's dwarf brother raping girls. Why'd you think the Sealord and the IB would take the Westeros mission to that kind of play? It's not to sweeten them up, I'm sure.

A scandal switcheroo may exactly be what the Sealord and the IB want to shoo off Cersei's lackeys back to King's Landing with their tails tucked back between their legs.

[Nevets]

They could twist the scandal around: if Raff's body goes missing and the girl's they can swich it. Before the Westerosi know what's going on, the Sealord, and other people of Braavos could cry murder on a pervert going for a young actress like that, probably killed her, and then ran... And of course, with a Queen like that whoring around, no wonder she's got some murderous, child raping perv in her retinue. Even her own Faith Militant washed their hands off her, making her walk naked in the streets of King's Landing, and she's awaiting trial. Remember Raff left the job to go with a kid actress. And the whole Westeros mission is about to watch a mummer's show on the debauchery of that queen's dwarf brother raping girls. Why'd you think the Sealord and the IB would take the Westeros mission to that kind of play? It's not to sweeten them up, I'm sure.

A scandal switcheroo may exactly be what the Sealord and the IB want to shoo off Cersei's lackeys back to King's Landing with their tails tucked back between their legs.

They are absolutely sweetening him up. It is widely known that Cersei hates Tyrion. She has offered a lordship for his head. There is every reason to think that a representative of Cersei is going to enjoy a play that demonizes Tyrion, which this does.

Also, Mercy returns to play her part after she kills Raff. This is going to make it difficult to portray this as a murder by Raff. The switch might work, might not, but requires the Braavosi to lie like crazy and I don't see why they would necessarily do that.

Why would the IB necessarily be hostile to the envoy. They have been trying for months to get someone to discuss the crown's debt. Now that someone is here, are they going to decide that they're no longer interested in reaching a deal? They might not reach one, but there seems no reason why they shouldn't try.

Even Arya admits that the murder is going to cause trouble for the Sealord and the envoy. Essentially, she has committed a murder without considering the consequences, purely for personal satisfaction, and didn't really even try very hard to hide her own involvement. If I'm the FM, this kind of attitude would make me worry that I may have a loose cannon on my hands. I expect further events, if they keep her around, will confirm this.

My guess is that within the next couple of her chapters, she is back in Westeros.

[Rinn80]

Well, the thing is that Arya's personal revenge is in a contradiction with the beliefs of FM. They made it clear that FM cannot kill anyone for personal reasons and that only the one who is marked with the gift must be taken out.

Quote:

the KM once said "...you can leave while you still can".

This means that the longer she stays in that house, the more harder it becomes for her to leave and in the end she might have to escape and then most probably she will get hunted down by FM for knowing too much of their secrets (or violating their rules).

And what if, to become a true No One, she has to get her own face skinned and "throw it away" ? I think this will be time when she has to make the hardest decision whether to stay or leave.

[curiousdreamer]

You guys are reading too much into this.
the answer is much simpler -> the FM give the gift to those who ask for it and/or when someone has paid the price for it.
So unless arya herself asks for death, she won't be getting it as no one else (outside of FM) can name her.

[Whitering]

You guys are reading too much into this.

the answer is much simpler -> the FM give the gift to those who ask for it and/or when someone has paid the price for it.

So unless arya herself asks for death, she won't be getting it as no one else (outside of FM) can name her.

So, what do you think they do to acolytes who go their own way? I for one think they were legit when offering to place Arya in basically any societal position she wanted, but also that the implied threat that once she got the ugly girl face that she could no longer go her own way without consequence. Now, I also don't think they would kill her for Raff, because she's too valuable as a resource, but maybe they aren't that pragmatic.

Just think, she's also perfect to worm her way into Danys heart (well, pre desert trip 2.0) as a young woman who has experienced being a terrified and downtrodden servant (slave basically, Westerosi style).

[BastardPrince]

I imagine at some point she be in westeros and someone will wonder why she has Aria Stark's sword, her cover will be blown.

[LARRY!!!]

There's been a lot of debate in this thread about whether Arya will be in trouble for her actions in the Mercy chapter.  I think it's kind of funny that everyone's been debating, since 2014, whether she's broken the rules of the House of Black and White.  This seems like a great move by GRRM.  Nothing's black and white in Westeros, not even the rules of the House of Black and White.  I guess this is part of the reason the books are so fun!

[aryagonnakill#2]

^ Lol, nice point about the pun of the name.

[Bastetcat]

The faceless men don't kill people they know. It's a rule. 

 

I believe this is a red heiring. When you become a Faceless Man you become "No one". And No one knows no one. So is Arya truly is no one, how can she prove it better then to kill someone who she know, or even liked beforehand? The final task to be "no one" I think is to kill someone who you liked, and know before. Maybe Jayne? So She can become Jayne. Become a Faceless man and can "pretend to be Arya". That is perfect. 

[Whitering]

 

I believe this is a red heiring. When you become a Faceless Man you become "No one". And No one knows no one. So is Arya truly is no one, how can she prove it better then to kill someone who she know, or even liked beforehand? The final task to be "no one" I think is to kill someone who you liked, and know before. Maybe Jayne? So She can become Jayne. Become a Faceless man and can "pretend to be Arya". That is perfect. 

I think she could pretend to be Jeyne for about 5 minutes before gutting Ramsey like a fish.

[AerionBrightflameII]

I think she could pretend to be Jeyne for about 5 minutes before gutting Ramsey like a fish.

So. So. True.

[bemused]

 

They could twist the scandal around: if Raff's body goes missing and the girl's they can swich it. Before the Westerosi know what's going on, the Sealord, and other people of Braavos could cry murder on a pervert going for a young actress like that, probably killed her, and then ran... And of course, with a Queen like that whoring around, no wonder she's got some murderous, child raping perv in her retinue. Even her own Faith Militant washed their hands off her, making her walk naked in the streets of King's Landing, and she's awaiting trial. Remember Raff left the job to go with a kid actress. And the whole Westeros mission is about to watch a mummer's show on the debauchery of that queen's dwarf brother raping girls. Why'd you think the Sealord and the IB would take the Westeros mission to that kind of play? It's not to sweeten them up, I'm sure.

 

A scandal switcheroo may exactly be what the Sealord and the IB want to shoo off Cersei's lackeys back to King's Landing with their tails tucked back between their legs.

 

I think this is exactly what's going on, but I'll go further.... I think this has been Arya's assigned mission. She's been instructed by the HoB&W.. the only difference is that by co-incidence, one of the guards is Raff. This is her gift from the gods.

 

The HoB&W can't have imagined that she would know him. She was probably instructed to lure one of the guards outside on some pretext, kill him, dump him in a canal, then disappear herself, to create a scandal.

 

Right from the beginning of the chapter , she thinks about preparing for her own rape and murder. We know the rape is in the play.. but there's no mention of her character in the play being murdered...She always knew it was Mercy who would be murdered. The mission was intended to cause trouble for Swyft and the Sealord...( The Sealord is not orchestrating this, he's one of the targets.)

 

She's been provided with a blade (not Needle, which would have been too long) and she was probably to hide it on the prop table until needed..I imagine the iron key might open one of the secret ways into the HoB&W (though maybe it has something to do with the keyholders) ..There are even hints she might disguise herself as Cat ,briefly, for her getaway. "In the fog all cats are grey" she thinks. "In the fog all men are killers"...while in what will be seen as foreshadowing, in ADWD, Skahaz tells Barristan.."Cats go everywhere. No one ever looks at them."

 

And I think we see hints of Braavosi internal politics surfacing as well.. including a change of policy. The Sealord, Ferrego Antaryon (who is dying), is probably the one who had Dany and Viserys turned out, after replacing the Sealord of the marriage pact. Antaryon would have been the Sealord when Robert began borrowing so heavily. Robert would not have been pleased to know D&V were sheltering in Braavos. Westeros is a very important trading partner for Braavos, being another (very large) state that forbids slavery. (There may have been some placating of the new Ruler of the Seven Kingdoms going on.)

 

The IB ,FM and Sealord  form at least an informal Triad (and possibly, secretly, a formal one). Here we see the IB and the FM working together to further strain relations between Braavos and Cersei / Tommen.. The Black Pearl is very expensive to engage..I doubt Swyft is paying ( but it's for certain he'll be well distracted) ..the Third Sword is there entertaining some friends (possibly from a faction backing one of the candidates for Sealord??)

 

Dany floats on their horizon with her dragons... She's anti-slavery - that's good for them.. But now, I don't think Braavos necessarily wants to kill her dragons. I mean, they don't joke about them (understandable) but they had an accord with Valyria since shortly before the unmasking, which was quite some time before the Doom ...and they co-existed with the Targaryens and allied with them (and their dragons) in the past. What I think they may be most worried about is , does Dany know Ferrego Antaryon had her and Viserys turned out? Was Darry's death and that of the previous Sealord sped up a bit?.. There may be good cause to worry that Dany may be bearing a grudge.

 

I'd bet the death of the Sealord is very immanent, now.

 

And (stepping off the edge) the more I think about it , the more I think Jon was the main reason for Tycho's visit, not Stannis (at least equal anyway..) .. Sure, with Stannis, they may be hedging a bet, but he could be just a place marker (E.g. if Braavos allies with Dany, Stannis will be out in the cold.. ;) again).. Why was Tycho so unconcerned when Stannis signed his contract in blood ? I'm sure that if sellswords know "blood makes piss-poor ink" IB reps would know it as well.

 

Arya won't be the only set of eyes and ears on the Braavosi waterfront, so .. they've known about Jon's election - "the Black Bastard of the Wall" , and the Lyseni ship carrying slaves from Hardhome.. and we might wonder if the Moonsingers have had any important visions, lately. You'd think they might at a time of such upheaval and change. ...Tycho's contract with Jon must be very unusual and appears to have been made, probably, more on the strength of his character than the promise of financial return.

 

Depending on how deep the connections run between the IB and the FM, Tycho may know where the real Arya is.

 

So, no , Arya isn't in trouble.. but they may not quite know what to do with her...

[aryagonnakill#2]

^I've seen it posted before that the deal with Jon seems strange, but frankly I think it makes a lot of sense.  Bravos has no wood and the watch is suppose to be chopping down the largest forest in the world anyway.

[bemused]

I agree the deal could be good in the long term, when / if it becomes safer to work beyond the wall. But if wildlings return north come spring , Braavos could deal directly with them. Beyond-the-wall is not actually NW land.

 

Anyway, not to take this too far OT.. This stands out..

 

Tycho Nestoris had left behind a copy of their agreement. Jon read it over thrice. That was simple, he reflected. Simpler than I dared hope. Simpler than it should have been. 

 

... as does letting Stannis sign his agreement in a medium that is going to start to "come away in flakes" pretty quickly. Tycho could have easily said, no deal unless you warm up this ink and give me a lasting signature. There was a brazier in the room and Stannis wanted his loan.

 

At the same time, you would think that the Braavosi would have their own knowledge about dragons. They were around them for a long time, and the escaped slaves came from all walks of life. I think it's more probable that they want to know what the Citadel did about dragons in the past and what they're likely to do if given a chance now.

 

The Moonsingers are Braavos' official religion and have the greatest temple.. it would be odd if they were not keeping up their own vision-seeking traditions. ...It would be odd if the Braavosi did not have their own legends about the Long Night - because of being made up of so many founding "nationalities".

 

In Westeros, people worry that a long winter is coming because they just had a long summer..The same concerns might exist in Essos (for those paying attention) and ice has begun to form on the canals of Braavos.

 

The Mercy chapter hints at many tantalizing possible ways for information to be revealed... E.g... Even if he's only some sort of cousin, Phario Forel would certainly have at least family stories about such an illustrious family member as the First Sword of Braavos, and he seems to write political/historical plays (I think even "The Merchant's Melancholy Daughter" shows signs of political content - perhaps about the Sealord of the marriage pact). I'd be surprised if Arya didn't want to meet Phario, or at least read more of his plays.

 

The IB and the FM seem to be working together here.. she could reveal more about that to us, through her POV.. She is, herself, a living reversal of Syrio's story of the Sealord's cat. She appears to be just an ordinary "Cat". Do any of her "keepers" yet see just how rare and exotic she really is? When or if they do, will they think it best to try to keep her in the menagerie, or return her to the wild ?

[Whitering]

I imagine at some point she be in westeros and someone will wonder why she has Aria Stark's sword, her cover will be blown.

The number of people that know she has a sword and have seen it, who are alive.

 

1) Jon

2) The Hound

 

Pretty sure that's it, the Mountain's men never knew she was Arya at all, and the only ones who might have put two and two together are DEAD.

[sweetsunray]

The number of people that know she has a sword and have seen it, who are alive.

 

1) Jon

2) The Hound

 

Pretty sure that's it, the Mountain's men never knew she was Arya at all, and the only ones who might have put two and two together are DEAD.

 

Gendry knows the sword. He's an apprentice smith. Hot Pie and Lommy made a big deal of asking Arya about it, and Gendry observed it, once telling them to leave Arry alone and telling her "watch out" from behind. He knows who took it from her. And he guards orphans in the same inn where the thief of Needle ended up dead, killed by the Hound and a "boy". The blood stains of that fight are still visible in the inn and can't be completely whiped out.

[sweetsunray]

 

I think this is exactly what's going on, but I'll go further.... I think this has been Arya's assigned mission. She's been instructed by the HoB&W.. the only difference is that by co-incidence, one of the guards is Raff. This is her gift from the gods.

 

The HoB&W can't have imagined that she would know him. She was probably instructed to lure one of the guards outside on some pretext, kill him, dump him in a canal, then disappear herself, to create a scandal.

 

Right from the beginning of the chapter , she thinks about preparing for her own rape and murder. We know the rape is in the play.. but there's no mention of her character in the play being murdered...She always knew it was Mercy who would be murdered. The mission was intended to cause trouble for Swyft and the Sealord...( The Sealord is not orchestrating this, he's one of the targets.)

 

She's been provided with a blade (not Needle, which would have been too long) and she was probably to hide it on the prop table until needed..I imagine the iron key might open one of the secret ways into the HoB&W (though maybe it has something to do with the keyholders) ..There are even hints she might disguise herself as Cat ,briefly, for her getaway. "In the fog all cats are grey" she thinks. "In the fog all men are killers"...while in what will be seen as foreshadowing, in ADWD, Skahaz tells Barristan.."Cats go everywhere. No one ever looks at them."

 

And I think we see hints of Braavosi internal politics surfacing as well.. including a change of policy. The Sealord, Ferrego Antaryon (who is dying), is probably the one who had Dany and Viserys turned out, after replacing the Sealord of the marriage pact. Antaryon would have been the Sealord when Robert began borrowing so heavily. Robert would not have been pleased to know D&V were sheltering in Braavos. Westeros is a very important trading partner for Braavos, being another (very large) state that forbids slavery. (There may have been some placating of the new Ruler of the Seven Kingdoms going on.)

 

The IB ,FM and Sealord  form at least an informal Triad (and possibly, secretly, a formal one). Here we see the IB and the FM working together to further strain relations between Braavos and Cersei / Tommen.. The Black Pearl is very expensive to engage..I doubt Swyft is paying ( but it's for certain he'll be well distracted) ..the Third Sword is there entertaining some friends (possibly from a faction backing one of the candidates for Sealord??)

 

Dany floats on their horizon with her dragons... She's anti-slavery - that's good for them.. But now, I don't think Braavos necessarily wants to kill her dragons. I mean, they don't joke about them (understandable) but they had an accord with Valyria since shortly before the unmasking, which was quite some time before the Doom ...and they co-existed with the Targaryens and allied with them (and their dragons) in the past. What I think they may be most worried about is , does Dany know Ferrego Antaryon had her and Viserys turned out? Was Darry's death and that of the previous Sealord sped up a bit?.. There may be good cause to worry that Dany may be bearing a grudge.

 

I'd bet the death of the Sealord is very immanent, now.

 

And (stepping off the edge) the more I think about it , the more I think Jon was the main reason for Tycho's visit, not Stannis (at least equal anyway..) .. Sure, with Stannis, they may be hedging a bet, but he could be just a place marker (E.g. if Braavos allies with Dany, Stannis will be out in the cold.. ;) again).. Why was Tycho so unconcerned when Stannis signed his contract in blood ? I'm sure that if sellswords know "blood makes piss-poor ink" IB reps would know it as well.

 

Arya won't be the only set of eyes and ears on the Braavosi waterfront, so .. they've known about Jon's election - "the Black Bastard of the Wall" , and the Lyseni ship carrying slaves from Hardhome.. and we might wonder if the Moonsingers have had any important visions, lately. You'd think they might at a time of such upheaval and change. ...Tycho's contract with Jon must be very unusual and appears to have been made, probably, more on the strength of his character than the promise of financial return.

 

Depending on how deep the connections run between the IB and the FM, Tycho may know where the real Arya is.

 

So, no , Arya isn't in trouble.. but they may not quite know what to do with her...

 

:bowdown: We may not agree on Balon being killed by an FM, but thanks for making the textual links to what I suspected what may have been Mercy's mission. For many reasons I think we'll see a turn-around of the Lannister-Tyrell-Frey-Bolton power all over Westeros. There's the Northern Conspiracy. There's the Riverlords conspiracy+BwB+Nym's pack. And there are hints for an IB-FM conspiracy.

 

Yes, if you know my Valkyrie for the FM crackpot theory I think it's not unreasonable to suspect the FM and the Moonsingers have a Long Night prophecy.

[bemused]

 

:bowdown: We may not agree on Balon being killed by an FM, but thanks for making the textual links to what I suspected what may have been Mercy's mission. For many reasons I think we'll see a turn-around of the Lannister-Tyrell-Frey-Bolton power all over Westeros. There's the Northern Conspiracy. There's the Riverlords conspiracy+BwB+Nym's pack. And there are hints for an IB-FM conspiracy.

 

Yes, if you know my Valkyrie for the FM crackpot theory I think it's not unreasonable to suspect the FM and the Moonsingers have a Long Night prophecy.

 

Oh, thank you.. and you're welcome. Yes, that pesky "Balon: FM or Warlock ?" business is just one of those wait and see things ( There are a fair few of them ;) )

 

I haven't read your Valkyrie /FM thread yet, but I will. I'm trying desperately to work on the organization of a couple of my own ,right now .. but there are always topics I can't resist. Mercy is one of them.

 

Of course, I already feel there must be input from the Moonsingers coming..we know they're still in operation.. I also think there's something coming from the wildlings..You probably don't know my thread about Tormund and Val, either.. but I think both Val and Dalla are / were seers.. and maybe an old wildling prophecy exists as well.(Tormund thinking at one time "it" might be him..) Anyway, that's OT, but..

 

The clue I alluded to in Phario's play(above) is where the fat merchant shat upon the Sealord in his barge (and Sealord and commoner alike laughed to see it). That got me to thinking - Why would the Sealord laugh at such an insult to his office? ..unless it's this Sealord laughing at his predecessor.. I think the merchants would have been very upset if they thought Robert might cause havoc with their business, all because of the Sealord's policy re: Dany & Viserys ... and we know from TWoIaF, that there are now many "newly" rich merchant keyholders, beyond the original families who funded the IB.. It could be that in real life, the fat merchants collectively shat on the Sealord by turning the IB against him ... which in turn, may have caused an early demise (or two).. and the ascension of Ferrego Antaryon.

 

Now, with Dany & dragons in the picture, it may come back to bite them.. and we have Daena's story of the very fat Reyaan sinking his own barge, perhaps being prophetic,

 

Just my suspicious speculation..

[Brother Seamus]

 

My guess is that within the next couple of her chapters, she is back in Westeros.

 

Me too.  It's way past time for Arya to enter the mainstream of the narrative.   90% this means return to Westeros.  Much less likely IMHO but still not insubstantial possibility is that she stays in Braavos; Dany ends up in Braavos on her way to Westeros, and one or more of Arya, Dany (and her army and entourage, maybe Tyrion?), Justin Massey, maybe fArya, (perhaps others, who am I forgetting?) cross paths in Braavos to some important purpose.

 

But my bet (interrelated predictions; in roughly anticipated chronological order; some or all of the following) is she ends up in the riverlands; finds Nymeria and co-leads the wolf pack; falls in/allies with her zombie mom and her crew and perhaps other elements of the former BWB; participates in attacking the Freys; participates/contributes to saving Sansa from LF; contributes to re-establishing Stark power in the north and over Winterfell; contributes to the war against the Others.

 

In other words, she's one the Starks still standing at the end of the story.