WalkerDragon Posted June 6, 2014 Share Posted June 6, 2014 Ok i guess we will just have to wait and see. Unless maybe as mentioned before this may turn into one of those unresolved mysteries Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TallTyrionLannister Posted June 6, 2014 Share Posted June 6, 2014 First, "Varys said and Varys said and Varys said" is not evidence. It all just hangs on one person's words, and not impartial by any measure, but active player for Team Young Griff. Other than his claims, what else is there? Young Griff's kind of Valyrian looks. A guy looking for that kind of thing can find a whore with such features in a cheap brothel in Selhorys, so it isn't that unique. And we're not talking about "guilty" or "innocent", we're talking about "Rhaegar's son" or "not Rhaegar's son". And I know of no human rights catalog where "the right to be considered Rhaegar's miraculously resurrected son until proven otherwise" is one of them. From a person known to never tell lies, but only "half truths", it is pretty solid evidence, especially consdering he told this to Kevan right before killing him. Who else would he have been saying that for, why tell a lie to a dead man? You can argue that one of his "little birds" was hanging around, but that is, quite literally, making shit up out of thin air just to support a bad theory. He looks like a Targ, he doesn't simply have "some Valyrian features" (which aren't as common as fAegon theorists like to let on. We are not left with any reason to believe these are particularly common traits). This, even if scant evidence, is indeed evidence, something the other side of the argument entirely lacks aside from alleged clues and other subtext. This is no Human Right's court, but the "innocent until proven guilty" model is used because of the simple logic behind the burden of proof being on the person crying foul, not the base statement of innocence. The same is applied to Aegon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TallTyrionLannister Posted June 6, 2014 Share Posted June 6, 2014 Except Varys not outright lying still doesn't make him dishonest, he could still have found a way to deceive Connington into thinking. He also lied about Connington having been kicked out of the GC, and drank himself to death. As for Aegon's appearance, you have to take into account many people in the Free Cities have Valyrian blood, and have Targaryen features. Also, as far as historical parallels go, Aegon is waving the red dragon banner of House Targaryen to win Dorne just as Henry VII waved the red dragon banner to win Wales, the political influence of Dorne. He was brought up by a man (Jasper Tudor/Jon Connington) of considerable military expertise, who was absolutely loyal to the crown prince who died in battle (Rhaegar/Edward of Westminster), and fought in only one battle (Battle of Mortimer's Cross/Battle of the Bells) and lost, and fled across the (Narrow Sea/English Channel) where he did a lot of traveling, and lands with (Henry/Aegon) in the area of his seat (Pembroke Castle/Griffin's Roost). One thing about Henry VII, is that he was the only child of a Beaufort mother; House Beaufort having been founded by a bastard of House Lancaster. Following that parallel, Aegon may be the only child of a Blackfyre mother. R+L=J has plenty of clues and foreshadowing. Except putting Aegon on the IT doesn't specifically require his heritage to be revealed. One of Blackfyre bood would still be on the IT, and Varys and Illyrio would have won. The historical parallel is interesting, but it's not actual evidence. Still, though, good find! :) Why would Varys lie to a dying man, though, as I said earlier? Why just tell a straight-up lie to a man about to die for no reason? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Here Shaggydog Posted June 6, 2014 Author Share Posted June 6, 2014 Yeah I agree , no point in lying to Kevan Lannister as he's dying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fire Eater Posted June 6, 2014 Share Posted June 6, 2014 The historical parallel is interesting, but it's not actual evidence. Still, though, good find! :) Why would Varys lie to a dying man, though, as I said earlier? Why just tell a straight-up lie to a man about to die for no reason? "whilst Aegon raises his banner above Storm's End and the lords of the realm gather round him." "Aegon? . . . Dead. He's dead." "No." He didn't straight up lie. Varys was talking about the Aegon with Connington, who clearly isn't dead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WalkerDragon Posted June 6, 2014 Share Posted June 6, 2014 You also must remember that using the clues given, Tyrion one of the smartest charcters figured out who Young Griff truly was Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Here Shaggydog Posted June 6, 2014 Author Share Posted June 6, 2014 Is it clarified that a baby was switched? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TallTyrionLannister Posted June 6, 2014 Share Posted June 6, 2014 "whilst Aegon raises his banner above Storm's End and the lords of the realm gather round him." "Aegon? . . . Dead. He's dead." "No." He didn't straight up lie. Varys was talking about the Aegon with Connington, who clearly isn't dead. The Aegon with JonCon clearly being referred to as Aegon, son of Rhaegar. Again, kind of a stretch if you ask me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fire Eater Posted June 6, 2014 Share Posted June 6, 2014 You also must remember that using the clues given, Tyrion one of the smartest charcters figured out who Young Griff truly was He got it from Haldon who lost the game of cyvasse where they played for secrets. The Aegon with JonCon clearly being referred to as Aegon, son of Rhaegar. Again, kind of a stretch if you ask me Varys was talking about the Aegon with Connington, he made no mention of the boy being Rhaegar's son. He just let Kevan assume that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonCon's Red Beard Posted June 6, 2014 Share Posted June 6, 2014 Varys must have provided them with some proof that Aegon really is who he is. Both Aegon and Jon would be incredible naive and stupid to even consider people will believe their word only. And even if Jon is blind about Aegon being fake out of guilt, Varys wouldn't expect Doran to be the same. Mostly of Varys' plans so far depend on good luck and wish for the best, apparently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TallTyrionLannister Posted June 6, 2014 Share Posted June 6, 2014 He got it from Haldon who lost the game of cyvasse where they played for secrets. Varys was talking about the Aegon with Connington, he made no mention of the boy being Rhaegar's son. He just let Kevan assume that. Tyrion deduced that he was who he is claimed to be on his own though. The Aegon Varys is referring to is the same Aegon Varys also claims to be Aegon Targaryen, son of Rhaegar, however. He knows what people mean when they say "Aegon is dead", there is nothing to indicate that he is being coy in order to not lie about Aegon being a fake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Starkfaithful85 Posted June 6, 2014 Share Posted June 6, 2014 well the good news is that you will have plenty of time to debate this...FYI GRRM will be writing a short story plus a brutal death scene in westeros for anyone who wins the prize for his charity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lummel Posted June 6, 2014 Share Posted June 6, 2014 ...Why would Varys lie to a dying man, though, as I said earlier? Why just tell a straight-up lie to a man about to die for no reason? Yeah I agree , no point in lying to Kevan Lannister as he's dying. Actually what is the point in talking to dying man at all? Think on that for while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buried Treasure Posted June 6, 2014 Share Posted June 6, 2014 Again, there is absolutely zero proof that he is not Aegon, only what SOME may consider to be foreshadowing and clues. This does not count as proof, and the fact that this is someone who does look very much like a Targaryen who happens to be the same age Aegon would be, with a very plausible story from someone we know does not straight up-lie (re: Varys deals in half-truths) claiming him to indeed be Aegon shows that there is proof, strong reasons to believe, that Aegon is Aegon Targaryen. Seeing as how we have actual proof, however scant it may be, that this is Aegon, while all we have are far fetched theories based on subtext that he ISNT a Targ, I think it's safe to say that presenting the chance of him not being Aegon as being on equal grounds as the BF theory is bogus at best.I count Aegon being read on the floor with his head smashed in as proof this kid is not Aegon. Disprove that. From a person known to never tell lies, but only "half truths", it is pretty solid evidence, especially consdering he told this to Kevan right before killing him. Who else would he have been saying that for, why tell a lie to a dead man? You can argue that one of his "little birds" was hanging around, but that is, quite literally, making shit up out of thin air just to support a bad theory. He looks like a Targ, he doesn't simply have "some Valyrian features" (which aren't as common as fAegon theorists like to let on. We are not left with any reason to believe these are particularly common traits). This, even if scant evidence, is indeed evidence, something the other side of the argument entirely lacks aside from alleged clues and other subtext. This is no Human Right's court, but the "innocent until proven guilty" model is used because of the simple logic behind the burden of proof being on the person crying foul, not the base statement of innocence. The same is applied to Aegon. Valyrian features are not common in Westeros, they are common in Essos.You also must remember that using the clues given, Tyrion one of the smartest charcters figured out who Young Griff truly was Tyrion deduced that he was who he is claimed to be on his own though. The Aegon Varys is referring to is the same Aegon Varys also claims to be Aegon Targaryen, son of Rhaegar, however. He knows what people mean when they say "Aegon is dead", there is nothing to indicate that he is being coy in order to not lie about Aegon being a fake. Important thing is that Tyrion worked out who Aegon claims to be. He had a lot of context clues: Illyrio as a long standing patron, a highborn Westerosi Lord, and his supposed 'son' not being a mere tagalong but the focus of the venture, protected and educated by the retinue. That is all true regardless of whether Aegon is real or not, and Tyrion is himself shown to remain in doubt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mithras Posted June 6, 2014 Share Posted June 6, 2014 Actually what is the point in talking to dying man at all? Think on that for while. People tend to believe that Varys cannot lie a dying man but I can't believe how people forget that Kevan is dying because Varys killed him in cold blood. So how can people expect him of doing such a kindness to the man he killed? As people said it a million times, Varys has every reason to lie to Kevan (because the little birs are there and listening). Varys also does not simply lie. He speaks technical truths but the people he is trying to deceive gets the wrong idea. As for the point of talking to Kevan, I think Varys wanted him to die quiet and stay where he was (because he didnot want to engage with any guards that Kevan might alarm). I am no doctor but can a crossbow bolt in the chest nail a man where he is and prevent him shouting and calling for help? I think it is possible that there was a paralyzing poison in the crossbow bolt. Varys must have provided them with some proof that Aegon really is who he is. Both Aegon and Jon would be incredible naive and stupid to even consider people will believe their word only. And even if Jon is blind about Aegon being fake out of guilt, Varys wouldn't expect Doran to be the same. Mostly of Varys' plans so far depend on good luck and wish for the best, apparently. JonCon is obviously haunted by guilt and as Tyrion said, people avoid facing the hard truth. Putting a boy who resembles Rhaegar to the IT and destroying the Usurpers sounds so sweet that JonCon should be very eager to swallow the lie. And we should also note that he mislikes both Varys and Illyrio and when he secures the power, he means to get rid of them. About Doran, I am more inclined to think that Varys told him all about fAegon. From Doran's POV, does it matter if he knows that Aegon is fake? I don't think so. Varys will give him his vengeance and make his precious daughter the queen. They have the best chance of success. In fact, their campaign will fail only because of the unexpected survival of Dany. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
natty bumppo Posted June 6, 2014 Share Posted June 6, 2014 This is no Human Right's court, but the "innocent until proven guilty" model is used because of the simple logic behind the burden of proof being on the person crying foul, not the base statement of innocence. The same is applied to Aegon. The burden of proof is on whoever files the suit or makes the claim. A criminal trial is started by the prosecution. Therefore, it's for them to prove their accusations. In a civil case it's the side that has filed the suit who has to prove its case. "Aegon" isn't accused of anything. He is the one claiming the throne, so he and his supporters have to prove that that claim is justified. And that includes proof of his identity. The side that's innocent until proven guilty here is the Seven Kingdoms in not accepting him as their king. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disputatious Posted June 6, 2014 Share Posted June 6, 2014 You also must remember that using the clues given, Tyrion one of the smartest charcters figured out who Young Griff truly wasHe figured out who Young Griff is supposed to be. It does not follow that he is convinced that Young Griff is actually who he is supposed to be. It may well be that he was convinced; his surprise at what Benerro says---one prophesied person not two as Haldon had suggested, means that he was starting to take it all seriously. But he was also surprised that Young Griff et al took his "Go West, young man" advice. It seems to me that we are not told enough to say that Tyrion is a good guide to resolve the question at hand.Oops, Ninja'ed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disputatious Posted June 6, 2014 Share Posted June 6, 2014 So far as Doran goes:why bother sending Arianne off to investigate if he already has the full story from Varys? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disputatious Posted June 6, 2014 Share Posted June 6, 2014 As for where the burden of proof lies, this is a discussion forum, not a court room. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kernest Posted June 6, 2014 Share Posted June 6, 2014 Except putting Aegon on the IT doesn't specifically require his heritage to be revealed. One of Blackfyre bood would still be on the IT, and Varys and Illyrio would have won. I don't buy this line, the most important thing in the world is who he says he is. Would Varys and Illyrio just take the secret to their graves laughing because they managed to fool everyone? There's no "symbolic victory" in Aegon being a Blackfyre, there's only victory in him actually being one (and everyone knowing it). The same goes for the previous and current occupants of Stannis' throne, Joffrey and Tommen: we know them to be Lannisters, but Cersei or anyone else can never admit it, nor tell their children their true parentage, and there's no symbolic victory in them actually being Lannisters as long as they carry the Baratheon name. And if there was no war or anything, in a few generations their childrens would still be Baratheons and the dirty secret would be forgotten. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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