Seriously, where's the logic in Balon's plan?

[Bright Blue Eyes]

- They can still be seen giving time to mount counterattacks , set the fleet out, close gates or what limited defences lannisport will have to its inland side and send ravens/messangers in all directions

So what, who cares? Unless they teleport to 50 meters before the gates, that happens either way.

- there are still the remaining skeleton garrisons of many lords, steffans 10k , the garrisons of casterly rock and lannisport and the westerlands fleet. All making landing unetected essential to avoid either defeat or at least heavy casulties.

Have fun with 50 men contesting the landing of the entire Iron Fleet. And there may be less than twenty castles in the entire Westerlands fielding such a garrison.

-They could sent part to land and leave enough at sea to trap the lannisport fleet there but now of course were getting into larger and more comlicated assaults which was the contrast with the much easier northern assault.

they cant ignore them as even a smaller fleet can block their landing or destroy them from the rear if left alone and forgot about.

You should explain that to Alfred the Great. Maybe he would have used his fleet then.

- if they land up the shore and are spotted it gives time for steffan to march back to casterly rock or even lannisport before them

not to mention minor lords may send fractions of what remains of their forces not sent to war and remaining casterly rock garrisons and lannsiports.

Yes. Steffon could do something. If he has the time. And would give battle to the entire Iron Fleet with his green boys after the Iron Fleet has several days to prepare for him. And if he marches to Casterly Rock or Lannisport, these men would need to eat. While the Ironborn plunder the entire coast.

And these minor Lords may send their remaining five to ten men to contest whomever they chose.

[hodorisfaclessman]

So what? A shore-bound army might make twenty miles per day, a fleet easily makes a hundred and more. And the Westerlands sport more than a thousand miles of coast.

Should the Westermen post 10,000 men every twenty miles or the like? Then they may have chance to catch them while disembarking.

you're forgetting that the westerlands seas are filled with fishing and merchant ships and due to the hilly nature of the terrain the population would be centred on the coastline..it doesnt have to be a military person who spots them at all

and lets say they do stay out at sea far enough to avoid detection and sweep inwards (as euron does) then land...the fleet is still in lannisport and a threat to them , it MUST be dealt with first otherwise the whole thing can go up in smoke quite easily.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

you're forgetting that the westerlands seas are filled with fishing and merchant ships and due to the hilly nature of the terrain the population would be centred on the coastline..it doesnt have to be a military person who spots them at all

So what? Does the army to contest their landing suddenly teleports into place or what? They can spot the Ironborn at the Banefort, start marching alongside them and the Ironborn would be attacking Crakehall a week later, with the Westerlands army still needing a full month to get there.

and lets say they do stay out at sea far enough to avoid detection and sweep inwards (as euron does) then land...the fleet is still in lannisport and a threat to them , it MUST be dealt with first otherwise the whole thing can go up in smoke quite easily.

A small danger. If the Ironborn disembark their entire fleet, for which there is absolutely no need.

[Pod The Impaler]

Serious question. I'm so confused because I don't think I've ever seen a more idiotic person. Only people who made worse blunders were probably Imry Florent and Stafford Lannister. Did he actually genuinely believe that Robb had basically marched south with the entire northern force? Surely theon must have told him how many men each lord had brought to Robb's cause and with the sheer size of the north (especially in comparison to his shit-stained rocks) he must've realised that they could still raise up to twice as many men as the ironborn even have. Oh and that basically in an area as big as the north with its horrible weather he'd have no advantage. I know that as the reader we knew his plan was stupid for these reasons, but was Balon really that dumb that he couldn't see through how stupid his plan was. Basically his plan just consisted of secure Moat Cailin (probably the only smart part) and then eventually the entire north would submit to him. The ironborn have no horses, how exactly would they continue their campaign to the eastern castles such as Karhold, Widow's Watch, White Harbour and the Dreadfort? He thought that Winterfell could defy him for a while but did he legitimately not know anything about the other castles such as the Dreadfort? And then Victarion believed he could continue with this plan if he was crowned. If his forces actually try to move further east especially at the slow pace they'd be at where they have no cavalry (and aren't good riders besides) couldn't the White Harbor knights basically thwart any of these plans and just ride them down? I'm just trying to understand, in what way was it actually possible for Balon's plan to work?

There is no logic to it. Not strategic logic, not diplomatic / political logic, not Old Way logic, not even personal logic. It is the most dumb-ass idea in the series.

Imre Florent and Stafford Lannister were merely inattentive to the point of incompetence. Quentyn Martell let his desperation overcome his realism. What Balon did is another order of magnitude of stupidity - the execution went according to plan, but being able to carry out a terrible & senseless idea is actually worse than getting nowhere at all with it.

It is only possible for Balon's plan to work if Tywin Lannister happens to be so magnanimous a guy that he just awards himThe North in gratitude for saving the Lannisters' asses, and also if Tywin / Joffrey are willing to look upon himk as a king in his own right. Oh, and the Northmen also do not hold grudges or have ambitions to replace the Starks, nor know to fight you on their own ground. Oh, and Stannis decides that he gives no fucks about the realm and moves to Asshai to become a monk. Then and only than does Balon's plan "work". And also if winter isn't actually coming.

[hodorisfaclessman]

-Id imagine it matters very much to all the extra men that will die due to giving the enemy plenty of time to get ready(land 200 metres away and they are gonna see u sail in hours ago) and the fact a 10k force will be comming boxing you in lannisport

and that the lannisport fleet gets away to either enage ur fleet and delay it or slip away to remain a threat in your rear.

- robb left half his strength in the north, tywin left prob 10% at most which isnt much but a lot more than 50 men or so.

-cool

-Hes under 3 days ride away , so say 5 days marching , that means at the very least casterly rock cant be taken and lannisport will have to be fought for in a large scale battle if its to be held.

[Mithras]

Deaf to things he didn't wish to hear? That is never a good trait in a ruler. That likely means Balon preferred "yes men." The wise heed those who speak the truth, people who tell them what they need to hear, while the fools heed those who speak flattery, who tell them what they wish to hear. You're make decisions based on facts not wishful thinking.

Agreed, I used the word “gift” ironically :)

Balon's resentment to Theon was so great that he didn’t even think on anything he said. If he did, he could actually make sense of it.

Baelor Blacktyde, Theon and Asha (post Deepwood Motte). There is a pattern there. After living off the ironborn for a while, all of them realized the futility of the Old Way.

In Pyke, it would seem, the old wars were still being fought. That ought not surprise him. The Iron Islands lived in the past; the present was too hard and bitter to be borne. Besides, his father and uncles were old, and the old lords were like that; they took their dusty feuds to the grave, forgetting nothing and forgiving less.

Theon was not wrong. The ironborn are trying to hold onto an illusion but someone needs to wake them up.

Theon became BFF with Patrek Mallister, something even Denys Mallister was shocked and not approving. But that is actually the cure. All the future lords of the Iron Islands should be fostered in the mainland to completely erase the Old Way out. Childhood friendships last forever. As Theon said, the old men take their dusty feuds to the grave.

By the way, I started a re-read project of the Aeron/Victarion chapters here. The first Aeron chapter is posted for anyone interested.

[hodorisfaclessman]

-If they were spotted back then sailing in westerlands waters then the lannsiport fleet would be at sea wating to pin them agaisnt the shoreline mking numbers advantages useless

-its still a threat one that can utterly ruin their invasion if not dealt with ........and a threat the north doesnt present with its much larger shoreline and 0 fleet.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

-Id imagine it matters very much to all the extra men that will die due to giving the enemy plenty of time to get ready(land 200 metres away and they are gonna see u sail in hours ago) and the fact a 10k force will be comming boxing you in lannisport

and that the lannisport fleet gets away to either enage ur fleet and delay it or slip away to remain a threat in your rear.

Whatever. The Ironborn are not forced to attack Lannisport.

- robb left half his strength in the north, tywin left prob 10% at most which isnt much but a lot more than 50 men or so.

Distributed all over the country. How many men do big castles have? A skeleton garrison for Dragonstone or Storms End numbers 200 or 300 men and those are some of the biggest fortresses ever.

-cool

-Hes under 3 days ride away , so say 5 days marching , that means at the very least casterly rock cant be taken and lannisport will have to be fought for in a large scale battle if its to be held.

Yes, maybe Casterly Rock or Lannisport. But what does that matter to Lord Crakehall, Lord Westerling and all the other Lords as soon as their families have won a nice trip to Pyke as hostages, their castles are razed and their incomes ruined? How long will they stand for it?

[denny717]

No doubt Balon was stupid, but we don't know what political alliances he made in secret. It could be that Tywin told him if he helps with the north the iron born could have their indepencence. (besides conquering all of westeros, which is just ridiculous, independence and looting from the dead was all balon really cares about.) Would Tywin actually give him this? Hell no. And Balon wouldn't openly help Tywin because Balon is all about being no mans thrall and the IB would respect him less if he joined one of the kingdoms that helped take him down in the first rebellion.

Or he just wanted revenge on the north for taking his last born son, so he put his eggs in the lannister basket, assuming after Tywin crushes the north he can bend the knee and his revenge will have been a success.

Either way Balon was an idiot. That we all seem to agree on.

[Fire Eater]

Agreed, I used the word “gift” ironically :)

Balon's resentment to Theon was so great that he didn’t even think on anything he said. If he did, he could actually make sense of it.

Baelor Blacktyde, Theon and Asha (post Deepwood Motte). There is a pattern there. After living off the ironborn for a while, all of them realized the futility of the Old Way.

In Pyke, it would seem, the old wars were still being fought. That ought not surprise him. The Iron Islands lived in the past; the present was too hard and bitter to be borne. Besides, his father and uncles were old, and the old lords were like that; they took their dusty feuds to the grave, forgetting nothing and forgiving less.

Theon was not wrong. The ironborn are trying to hold onto an illusion but someone needs to wake them up.

Thanks for finding that quote. The bolded part sums up the Ironborn pretty well. Like the Ghiscari in Slaver's Bay, they are a people living in the past.

I agree the fostering Ironborn on the greenlands helped to forge friendships between the houses is a good solution. Another is to realize that avoiding productive labor isn't a strength. They should focus more on trade and agriculture than reaving. Braavos has limited resources in its location, yet it is the richest of the Free Cities.

I wonder if they have large piles of seabird crap on the island that could be used as guano.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

No doubt Balon was stupid, but we don't know what political alliances he made in secret. It could be that Tywin told him if he helps with the north the iron born could have their indepencence. (besides conquering all of westeros, which is just ridiculous, independence and looting from the dead was all balon really cares about.) Would Tywin actually give him this? Hell no. And Balon wouldn't openly help Tywin because Balon is all about being no mans thrall and the IB would respect him less if he joined one of the kingdoms that helped take him down in the first rebellion.

Actually, we do know. At least in the case of Tywin. Tyrion told us that Balon made that offer after he had given Tywin everything for free.

[hodorisfaclessman]

- Yes they are the fleet there could spoil everything for a naval based campaign its essential to remove first.

-Its not a huge place they are disrtibuted around(esp when compared to the north which we're contrasting this with remember)

Casterly rock is 2nd biggest (winterfells skeleton garrison was about 600) so we can assume a less trusting lord like tywin left at least that

Lannisport is a huge city and its elite pikemen still have to police it so we can assume at least 500-1000 left there , the various lords will have as u said say 50 -40 or so remaining men in noble houses and less so in smaller knightly houses etc.

-crakehall is past lannnisport theyd be idiots to sail past an enemy fleet and attack and expect not to be boxed in

the westerlings and some of the more northern costal lord have their own ships to warn them of danger (grmm) , staffons 10k men nearby and of course theres still the lannisport which again must be dealt with to be able to reave/ hold ground effectively.

[hodorisfaclessman]

No doubt Balon was stupid, but we don't know what political alliances he made in secret. It could be that Tywin told him if he helps with the north the iron born could have their indepencence. (besides conquering all of westeros, which is just ridiculous, independence and looting from the dead was all balon really cares about.) Would Tywin actually give him this? Hell no. And Balon wouldn't openly help Tywin because Balon is all about being no mans thrall and the IB would respect him less if he joined one of the kingdoms that helped take him down in the first rebellion.

Or he just wanted revenge on the north for taking his last born son, so he put his eggs in the lannister basket, assuming after Tywin crushes the north he can bend the knee and his revenge will have been a success.

Either way Balon was an idiot. That we all seem to agree on.

I think the offer to tywin was just a possible bonus , balon was set on taking the north anyway

so if tywin agreed to help and recognised this all well and good ..if not no harm done

[hodorisfaclessman]

Thanks for finding that quote. The bolded part sums up the Ironborn pretty well. Like the Ghiscari in Slaver's Bay, they are a people living in the past.

I agree the fostering Ironborn on the greenlands helped to forge friendships between the houses is a good solution. Another is to realize that avoiding productive labor isn't a strength. They should focus more on trade and agriculture than reaving. Braavos has limited resources in its location, yet it is the richest of the Free Cities.

I wonder if they have large piles of seabird crap on the island that could be used as guano.

actualy if eurons kingsmoot is anything to go by forget westeros reving in the east is the way to go

they preserve their culture and the riches seem to make westeros look cheap by comparison.

[Petyr Patter]

Balon's folly wasn't in his military plans. For the most part, they worked well with Theon over performing expectations by a wide margin. If he wanted land and loot, the North represented a low risk target, albeit not the richest.

However, his military strategy is completely at odds with his political objectives. Balon chose to make his invasion of the North part of political independence. The same North that was the only player in the game offering Balon independence. So he invades the North, but ultimately fails to take Greywatch Tower, the Dreadfort, Karhold, White Harbor, the Last Hearth, Barrowtown, and other Northern strategic points. Under no condition was Balon going to be able to get the entire North under his thumb. Once again, he could have simply taken slaves, food, and whatever goods of value there were in the North and called it a day.

Then "King Joffrey" achieves a dominant military position in the rest of Westeros and Balon comes begging for an alliance and recognition of independence. Tywin smells weakness and offers nothing. He knows Balon won't be able to hold onto the North, especially not when Tywin can get the North for his own house using Sansa and Tyrion's marriage to provide an alternative. He certainly is not going to let a kingdom of self professed conquerors set up independence right next door to Lannisport.

Had Balon NOT wanted a crown and independence, his military strategy could have worked. Attack the North while Tywin maintains pressure on the Riverlands forcing Robb to make bad decisions. Or depending on timing raid the Reach so Renly loses support and won't attack king's landing. However, get an agreement from Tywin first, be it for gold, land, or greater regional autonomy. He did not, and his military position crumbled.

[Bennis of the Brown Shield]

You can't understand Balon's actions without considering that vengeance was a large motive behind them. He wanted to destroy the Starks and Baratheons for killing his sons and ruining his dream of becoming king. Meanwhile he didn't have anything personal against Tywin Lannister, and was also afraid of him.

It's not like Robb Stark had a much better reason for going to war.

[Trigger Warning]

D-Day like assaults are a thing of the 20th century. With the given technology, they don't happen. Landing a decent army is easy as pie.

Also this.

If the landing is opposed you just land somewhere else.

[hodorisfaclessman]

Balon's folly wasn't in his military plans. For the most part, they worked well with Theon over performing expectations by a wide margin. If he wanted land and loot, the North represented a low risk target, albeit not the richest.

However, his military strategy is completely at odds with his political objectives. Balon chose to make his invasion of the North part of political independence. The same North that was the only player in the game offering Balon independence. So he invades the North, but ultimately fails to take Greywatch Tower, the Dreadfort, Karhold, White Harbor, the Last Hearth, Barrowtown, and other Northern strategic points. Under no condition was Balon going to be able to get the entire North under his thumb. Once again, he could have simply taken slaves, food, and whatever goods of value there were in the North and called it a day.

Then "King Joffrey" achieves a dominant military position in the rest of Westeros and Balon comes begging for an alliance and recognition of independence. Tywin smells weakness and offers nothing. He knows Balon won't be able to hold onto the North, especially not when Tywin can get the North for his own house using Sansa and Tyrion's marriage to provide an alternative. He certainly is not going to let a kingdom of self professed conquerors set up independence right next door to Lannisport.

Had Balon NOT wanted a crown and independence, his military strategy could have worked. Attack the North while Tywin maintains pressure on the Riverlands forcing Robb to make bad decisions. Or depending on timing raid the Reach so Renly loses support and won't attack king's landing. However, get an agreement from Tywin first, be it for gold, land, or greater regional autonomy. He did not, and his military position crumbled.

to be fair we never know what he was gonna do next he may have plannd to take al those places its just for the storys sake nothings ever follwed up on hen he dies then euron starts his own campaign

[Winterfell is Burning]

You can't understand Balon's actions without considering that vengeance was a large motive behind them. He wanted to destroy the Starks and Baratheons for killing his sons and ruining his dream of becoming king. Meanwhile he didn't have anything personal against Tywin Lannister, and was also afraid of him.

Except that Ned didn't kill his sons, much less Robb, who was the one offering him a chance to be King again. Meanwhile, Tywin himself was a part of the war effort, Balon's own brother being his captive during the war, and it wouldn't be surprising if had attacked one of the islands like Barristan and Stannis did, and it's likely he helped finance the war.

[It's Not That Littlefinger]

that's the point. he's stupid as hell. and so are his brothers