R+L=J v.89

[FrozenFire3]

Just. Stop. Feeding. It.

I feel you, mate :lol:

The thing is, it's so hard to play devil's advocate on this one. There isn't a real alternative, either for Rhaegar's and Lyanna's son, or for Jon's mother if Ned were to be his father. Like he said in an SSM, he's laying out the clues that the butler did it, so it's likely that the butler did it. I'd be more cautious if there were some clues that the maid or mistress, but we don't really have those.

Here it is:

The fans use to come up with theories; lots of them are just speculative but some of them are in the right way. Before the Internet, one reader could guess the ending you wanna do for your novel, but the other 10.000 wouldn’t know anything and they would be surprised. However, now, those 10.000 people use the Internet and read the right theories. They say: “Oh God, the butler did it!”, to use an example of a mystery novel. Then, you think: “I have to change the ending! The maiden would be the criminal!” To my mind that way is a disaster because if you are doing well you work, the books are full of clues that point to the butler doing it and help you to figure up the butler did it, but if you change the ending to point the maiden, the clues make no sense anymore; they are wrong or are lies, and I am not a liar.The fans use to come up with theories; lots of them are just speculative but some of them are in the right way. Before the Internet, one reader could guess the ending you wanna do for your novel, but the other 10.000 wouldn’t know anything and they would be surprised. However, now, those 10.000 people use the Internet and read the right theories. They say: “Oh God, the butler did it!”, to use an example of a mystery novel. Then, you think: “I have to change the ending! The maiden would be the criminal!” To my mind that way is a disaster because if you are doing well your work, the books are full of clues that point to the butler doing it and help you to figure up the butler did it, but if you change the ending to point the maiden, the clues make no sense anymore; they are wrong or are lies, and I am not a liar [...] I ultimately thought I don’t wanna change anything. What I have to remember is that if one person figures out the ending and 10.000 people read it, they will doubt and still, a 100.000 people won’t see the post on the Internet and they will be surprised.

[stateofdissipation]

The 2% is caution.

Have you ever correctly identified the solution to a mystery novel? I never have. The author is always more clever at coming up with a culprit that fits all the information they've given than I am at reading the clues.

You guys have been very thorough, I'll give you that. I find all the quotations highly suggestive, but not conclusive. It certainly may be what you say, but what would your reaction be if GRRM presents you with a different answer than the one you expect?

My reaction if R+L=/= J? Disappointment, because I love the idea of Jon being a hidden prince (although we do have one of those already in fAegon). Jon being Rhaegar's son means there are 3 Targs for the 3 dragons, which has a pleasing symmetry. But GRRM doesn't really do "pleasing symmetry" does he? He does real life which is clunky and crude and chaotic.

And that's why I hold back 2% for doubt.

Very well said and argued.

It all makes perfect sense and you're probably right. I hope you are right because the Targaryen connection for Jon explains Ned's torment and the lies.

Here's the thought exercise I would pose to you: say your life depended on being right about R+L = J. Would you not turn the question around and try to poke holes in this answer? Play devil's advocate and see what you can find.

There is lots of evidence that R and L had a baby

There is evidence R married L

There is lots of evidence linking that baby to Jon

----------------------------All of that stays--------------

Down the road is Ashara with a dead baby... and a link to Ned.

--we have one reported baby swap with fAegon

--could we have a real baby swap with a girl that died on the way to Star Fall in search of a wetnurse--- for Ashara's live boy?

--could Ned have kept Lady Dayne's bastard?---most likely

--Ashara killed herself after her "lover" killed her brother---parallel between Bael the bard

--would Ned want Jon to know he caused his mother to kill herself? *a harder talk than "you're my nephew not my son."

[Ygrain]

Very well said and argued.

It all makes perfect sense and you're probably right. I hope you are right because the Targaryen connection for Jon explains Ned's torment and the lies.

Here's the thought exercise I would pose to you: say your life depended on being right about R+L = J. Would you not turn the question around and try to poke holes in this answer? Play devil's advocate and see what you can find.

Thing is, I have already been down this route, sort of. Each and every time someone comes up with a reasonable objection (as well as a couple of unreasonable ones), I try to find out if there might be some merit to it. So far, there hasn't been, and were it the case, I'd probably bet my life on R+L quite comfortably :P

[honeyed chicken]

The thing is, it's so hard to play devil's advocate on this one. There isn't a real alternative, either for Rhaegar's and Lyanna's son, or for Jon's mother if Ned were to be his father. Like he said in an SSM, he's laying out the clues that the butler did it, so it's likely that the butler did it. I'd be more cautious if there were some clues that the maid or mistress, but we don't really have those.

But in your own example, the butler didn't do it 99% of the time - he just looks like the obvious candidate.

There's got to be something hiding in plain sight that we're not seeing. What do we not know and why do we not know it?

There are so many unanswered questions still:

- if Ned's promise to Lyanna pertains to shielding Jon from Robert, why didn't Robert's presence in WF make Ned nervous (so far as we know)? In GOT Jon was banned from the banquet hall for his bastardy, but not so in the books. He was in the hall right under King Robert's nose as he walked in to take his place at the royal table.

- Ygrain supplied a good group of quotations to my question about why Ned was always remembering the "promise me Ned" without thoughts of Jon appearing simultaneously. And while some of the quotes are suggestive, they're not conclusive to me that there's a connection between Jon and the promise. I am not saying it's not possible, it just is not clear to me that Jon is the only answer to the question, "what did Ned promise Lyanna?"

- why no mention of a baby or a wet nurse at the toj? I realize Ned was in a fever dream when he recalled the toj, but no mention of a crying baby? That seems odd to me. Someone here yesterday suggested Jon had already gone to Starfall with Wylla at that point, but why then would the KG be there? Would they not be bound to go to Starfall with the baby prince?

- No mention of Ned & Lyanna's mom. That's an unusual oversight for these books. We are told plenty about long dead Joanna Lannister, but we don't even know the mother's name? We have no way of knowing what the reason for this secrecy or lack of disclosure is or how it might tie into the mystery of the promise and Jon's parentage. Still, that's a hefty chunk of info that we do not have.

- The other Jon Snow. I have already been told that Ned's bastard by the fisherman's daughter (reportedly named Jon Snow by the mother) is gossip. As to that, I have no way of knowing which is true. So maybe there are two Jon Snows. Also, having just reread the Davos chapter of his appearance in the Merman's Court (ADWD). I find it very interesting that the one person who spoke up for the Starks was named Wylla (the Freys in attendance were claiming that at the RW, Robb warged into a wolf and started ripping throats out so the Freys had no choce but to kill him. Wylla called them liars.). She's clearly too young (she's 15 or there abouts in the Davos scene) to be the wet nurse Wylla. But just a coincidence that they have the same name? GRRM doesn't do coincidence. I hope he gives us an explanation for that one some day.

- Clearly there was a Jon Snow nursed by Wylla, a servant at Starfall. We have that from Edric "Ned" Dayne (his nickname is suggestive of a Stark tie-in isn't it?) who seemed to have no reason to lie.

- speaking of Edric, "Ned": he appears in the story only long enough to mention Jon to Arya, then disappears completely again (??). Why would the Daynes honor Ned Stark by nicknaming a boy after him when he was the one that slew Arthur (or helped to) and was the cause of Ashara throwing herself into the sea (maybe). Does that not suggest that Ned's promise involves the Daynes in some way? Is there a A+L=J thread somewhere?

- the bit bout Jon and his wet nurse getting to WF before Cat and Robb has always niggled at me more than it does most of you. The timeline would look something like this:

- sack of KL. Ravens go out to all Westeros that Aerys is dead and Robert to be crowned the new king.

- Ned marches south to SE and accepts surrender of Mace T & co.

- Ned and his 6 companions ride to the toj and kill the 3 KG. Death of Lyanna. Ned takes time to bury the KG with honor. Makes arrangements to have Lyanna's remains returned to WF.

- Ned takes Jon south to Starfall delivers Dawn to the Daynes. Ashara jumps to her death (while Ned is there? Does he stay for the funeral?). Ned, Wylla and Jon take ship to KL where Ned gets off.

- the ship goes back to sea and around to White Harbor where they catch a horse cart to WF. All the while traveling as Ned's bastard - so probably not getting any special treatment along the road.

- after all this still arrive at WF before Cat & Robb.

- Really?

- Maybe Bran will see something in TWOW that will reset the way we view this question?

All these questions are unanswerable based on what we know in the books. To me they're one big reason for labeling R+L=J a nice hypothesis awaiting confirmation in a future ASOIAF book (most likely ADOS).

[sabrecmc]

I am 100% convinced of this theory, but I am still unsure of how no one else in Westeros (that we know of, which admittedly is a small %), seems to think too much on the idea of Jon's parentage. I mean, Catelyn does a bit and we know the servants at WF gossip, but no one says, "hey, wait, weren't the Targ prince and Ned's sis going at it like rabbits, we have no really reliable means of birth control around here and young, otherwise healthy women often die from childbirth?"

I'm not sure if that is just story-service ignorance or actually no one person with enough information to start questioning. It seems all you would need to know to just ponder a bit is that 1) R&L were having the sex and 2) Ned shows up with an infant. Add in 3) there were 3 KG that died where Ned found Lyanna to at least wonder...Most people would probably know #1 and #2...but are Ned and Howland the only ones that know #3? Does Barristan not know where his brothers died? House Dayne? Was no one curious about that, given how prominent those men and their families were? I know we don't have much of a timeline that is certain, though people have put together quite a bit of information from the bits and pieces. I also realize that information does not travel like we are used to, it was war, things were crazy, etc. I don't know, it still just bugs me a bit. Maybe because we are so immersed in it here, but it seems odd that no one has had these musings...though, again, that is probably simply story-service.

I do look forward to the day when Tyrion or whomever finally has a lightbulb moment.

[BearQueen87]

But in your own example, the butler didn't do it 99% of the time - he just looks like the obvious candidate.

There's got to be something hidden in plain sight that we're not seeing. Why have we never heard or read a single word about Ned's mother? Jon's grandmother? What do we not know and why do we not know it?

There are so many unanswered questions still:

- if Ned's promise to Lyanna pertains to shielding Jon from Robert, why didn't Robert's presence in WF make Ned nervous (so far as we know)? In GOT Jon was banned from the banquet hall for his bastardy, but not so in the books. He was in the hall right under King Robert's nose as he walked in to take his place at the royal table.

Because no one suspects Ned of lying. Ned is so honorable that when he admits to dishonor and fathering a bastard, no one is going to question it. Also, Robert is not someone who sees what is directly in front on him (hello, Joffery, Tommen, and Mrycella). Robert trusts that if Ned Stark says he fathered this kid (who looks a lot like he belongs to the North) then he did.

- why no mention of a baby or a wet nurse at the toj? I realize Ned was in a fever dream when he recalled the toj, but no mention of a crying baby? That seems odd to me. Someone here yesterday suggested Jon had already gone to Starfall with Wylla at that point, but why then would the KG be there? Would they not be bound to go to Starfall with the baby prince?

most of think there was a wet nurse at the ToJ as well as other servants. Remember "they" found Ned after Lyanna died. The KG were not doing the cooking, cleaning, birthing required and Starfall is awfully close. And LOYAL

Also, remember that this is a mystery. if there's a crying baby in the dream, the gig is up.

- I'm serious about Ned & Lyanna's mom. That's an unusual oversight for these books. We are told plenty about long dead Joanna Lannister, but we don't even know the name of Ned & Lyanna's mom? We have no way of knowing what the mystery is there or how it might tie into the mystery of the promise and Jon's parentage, but that's a rather hefty chunk of info that we do not have.

Doesn't the full family tree for the Starks appear in AWOIAF?

What if Arthur Dayne was really Jon's dad and Rhaegar's part was just to woo her on AD's behalf (far-fetched, but why not?).

Because I think Rhaegar recognizes that his child by Lyanna is TPTWP, who's song is that of Ice and Fire. He thought it was Aegon, but that makes zero sense...Elia isn't his Ice. I think Rhaegar realizes this at some point.

I am 100% convinced of this theory, but I am still unsure of how no one else in Westeros (that we know of, which admittedly is a small %), seems to think too much on the idea of Jon's parentage. I mean, Catelyn does a bit and we know the servants at WF gossip, but no one says, "hey, wait, weren't the Targ prince and Ned's sis going at it like rabbits, we have no really reliable means of birth control around here and young, otherwise healthy women often die from childbirth?"

It goes back to what I said above: Ned doesn't lie, according to everyone who knows him. If Ned Stark says he dishonored himself and Cat by having a bastard, then no one is going to question it because Ned is too honorable. It's the great irony.

[Consigliere]

<snip>

I do look forward to the day when Tyrion or whomever finally has a lightbulb moment.

Tyrion does not even think twice about Jon being Ned's son and neither does anyone else. He once commented wrt Jon: “He had the Stark face if not the name: long, solemn, guarded, a face that gave nothing away. Whoever his mother had been, she had left little of herself in her son.”

I seriously doubt Tyrion will just figure this out one day. The reveal is more likely to come from Howland and/or Bran.

[FrozenFire3]

There are so many unanswered questions still:

- I'm serious about Ned & Lyanna's mom. That's an unusual oversight for these books. We are told plenty about long dead Joanna Lannister, but we don't even know the name of Ned & Lyanna's mom? We have no way of knowing what the mystery is there or how it might tie into the mystery of the promise and Jon's parentage, but that's a rather hefty chunk of info that we do not have.

Not so unanswered. Ned's mum is Lyarra Stark (the infamous 'Lady Stark', as per GRRM's witty remark LOL), who happens to be Rickard's first cousin once removed btw (her dad Rodrik and Rickard's grandfather William were siblings). Lyarra's mum was Arya Flint. The only 'mystery' (unveiled) about the Stark family tree is that a diluted form of incest was far more frequent than what we first assumed ;)

[honeyed chicken]

I feel you, mate :lol:

Here it is:

Yes, that's nice, but there's also this from the same interview:

"Yes, it was always my intention: to play with the reader’s expectations. Before I was a writer I was a voracious reader and I am still, and I have read many, many books with very predictable plots. As a reader, what I seek is a book that delights and surprises me. I want to not know what is gonna happen. For me, that’s the essence of storytelling and for this reason I want my readers to turn the pages with increasing fever: to know what happens next. There are a lot of expectations, mainly in the fantasy genre, which you have the hero and he is the chosen one, and he is always protected by his destiny. I didn’t want it for my books."

btw

what if Jon is dead? How does that fit R+L=J?

[honeyed chicken]

Not so unanswered. Ned's mum is Lyarra Stark (the infamous 'Lady Stark', as per GRRM's witty remark LOL), who happens to be Rickard's first cousin once removed btw (her dad Rodrik and Rickard's grandfather William were siblings). Lyarra's mum was Arya Flint. The only 'mystery' (unveiled) about the Stark family tree is that a diluted form of incest was far more frequent than what we first assumed ;)

The wiki still lists her as unknown: http://awoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/House_Stark

[BearQueen87]

Yes, that's nice, but there's also this from the same interview:

"Yes, it was always my intention: to play with the reader’s expectations. Before I was a writer I was a voracious reader and I am still, and I have read many, many books with very predictable plots. As a reader, what I seek is a book that delights and surprises me. I want to not know what is gonna happen. For me, that’s the essence of storytelling and for this reason I want my readers to turn the pages with increasing fever: to know what happens next. There are a lot of expectations, mainly in the fantasy genre, which you have the hero and he is the chosen one, and he is always protected by his destiny. I didn’t want it for my books."

btw

what if Jon is dead? How does that fit R+L=J?

If Jon is actually dead I'll eat my hat.

I know we like to talk about GRRM subverting tropes and cliches, and of course he does, but with Jon there is a lot of monomyth/hero tale. Either Jon is in a coma like Bran or he went into Ghost and the wolf will be sacrificed to save Jon. Jon will go on his catabasis and probably receive information that way about his parents. Now either this is a literal catabasis (descent into some sort of underworld) or it's a metaphorical one where after Jon comes back from whatever state he's in, he'll go to Winterfell and down into the crypts, a place that has been calling to him in his dreams. That's why so many people wonder about what is Lyanna's tomb.

Also, consider the bolded part of that GRRM quote. Has Jon been protected by his destiny? He was just stabbed by his brothers after all. He has come close to death several times; his plot armor this thick, I'll grant, but so is Arya's and Dany's and Tyrion's.

The wiki still lists her as unknown: http://awoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/House_Stark

I think it needs updated, but there is an answer like FrozenFire pointed out

[Consigliere]

The wiki still lists her as unknown: http://awoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/House_Stark

The info comes from a leaked sample of TWoIaF book, I believe. Ran has said that the family tree is not final and may be subject to changes. Come 28 October we will know for sure. ;)

[honeyed chicken]

The info comes from a leaked sample of TWoIaF book, I believe. Ran has said that the family tree is not final and may be subject to changes. Come 28 October we will know for sure. ;)

I forgot about the WOIAF tree. That's gorgeous btw. I'm not a collector, but I may have to have that . . .

Still knowing her name and that she's a Flint does not explain her non-appearance in the books and etc. I can't see any reason why she would be tied to the promise or the Jon mystery, but not knowing is no explanation.

[Ygrain]

But in your own example, the butler didn't do it 99% of the time - he just looks like the obvious candidate.

There's got to be something hiding in plain sight that we're not seeing. What do we not know and why do we not know it?

There are so many unanswered questions still:

If someone looks like the obvious candidate, the clues are red herrings, and when the real candidate is revealed, there must be another set of less obvious clues which, in retrospect, click to their places.

- if Ned's promise to Lyanna pertains to shielding Jon from Robert, why didn't Robert's presence in WF make Ned nervous (so far as we know)? In GOT Jon was banned from the banquet hall for his bastardy, but not so in the books. He was in the hall right under King Robert's nose as he walked in to take his place at the royal table.

???But he was banned from the high table in the books. He is seated elsewhere in the hall, among the servants, and pretty much moping while trying to convince himself that without supervision, he can drink as much as he wants.

And, due to Jon's Stark looks, there is not much to fear, no-one would start suspecting anything solely on Jon's looks - but note how Ned immediately cuts off the discussion when Robert starts prying about Wylla.

- Ygrain supplied a good group of quotations to my question about why Ned was always remembering the "promise me Ned" without thoughts of Jon appearing simultaneously. And while some of the quotes are suggestive, they're not conclusive to me that there's a connection between Jon and the promise. I am not saying it's not possible, it just is not clear to me that Jon is the only answer to the question, "what did Ned promise Lyanna?"

Alright then - what else could he have promised that kept haunting him, paid a price for and his sister had plead with him in fear to grant her on her deathbed? Definitely not to be buried in Winterfell.

- why no mention of a baby or a wet nurse at the toj? I realize Ned was in a fever dream when he recalled the toj, but no mention of a crying baby? That seems odd to me. Someone here yesterday suggested Jon had already gone to Starfall with Wylla at that point, but why then would the KG be there? Would they not be bound to go to Starfall with the baby prince?

You have there "bed of blood" for childbirth, anything else would be a giveaway. As stated above, "they" suggests the presence of another person or persons, one of them quite plausibly a wetnurse, most probably Wylla.

As for the Starfall theory: as I understand it, the KG would have to stay away from baby Jon so as not to reveal his existence. Secrecy was his best protection from Robert and Lannisters, and not letting anyone see Lyanna and find out that she had given birth was a crucial part of it.

- No mention of Ned & Lyanna's mom. That's an unusual oversight for these books. We are told plenty about long dead Joanna Lannister, but we don't even know the mother's name? We have no way of knowing what the reason for this secrecy or lack of disclosure is or how it might tie into the mystery of the promise and Jon's parentage. Still, that's a hefty chunk of info that we do not have.

No idea here. We aren't told much of Rickard, either, but the complete lack of any mention of Lady Stark signifies to me that she was probably long dead before the events of the RR started to unfold.

- The other Jon Snow. I have already been told that Ned's bastard by the fisherman's daughter (reportedly named Jon Snow by the mother) is gossip. As to that, I have no way of knowing which is true. So maybe there are two Jon Snows. Also, having just reread the Davos chapter of his appearance in the Merman's Court (ADWD). I find it very interesting that the one person who spoke up for the Starks was named Wylla (the Freys in attendance were claiming that at the RW, Robb warged into a wolf and started ripping throats out so the Freys had no choce but to kill him. Wylla called them liars.). She's clearly too young (she's 15 or there abouts in the Davos scene) to be the wet nurse Wylla. But just a coincidence that they have the same name? GRRM doesn't do coincidence. I hope he gives us an explanation for that one some day.

Definitely no coincidence, the same as the defiant young Mormont girl talking back to Stannis being Lyanna. I think we might have here meta-reasons - bringing the name to the readers' attention as a reminder of the other Wylla.

Either way, the FMD doesn't fit in the timeline given by Ned (he met her before he married Cat), and, with outside knowledge, she cannot be the right answer as the book in which she is mentioned wasn't yet published when GRRM asked the show creators who Jon's mother was.

- Clearly there was a Jon Snow nursed by Wylla, a servant at Starfall. We have that from Edric "Ned" Dayne (his nickname is suggestive of a Stark tie-in isn't it?) who seemed to have no reason to lie.

And no way to have a first-hand access to the truth, due to his age.

While he "may" have been nicked for The Ned, all Ed- names can be shortened as Ned.

- speaking of Edric, "Ned": he appears in the story only long enough to mention Jon to Arya, then disappears completely again (??). Why would the Daynes honor Ned Stark by nicknaming a boy after him when he was the one that slew Arthur (or helped to) and was the cause of Ashara throwing herself into the sea (maybe). Does that not suggest that Ned's promise involves the Daynes in some way? Is there a A+L=J thread somewhere?

To me it means that they know that Ned had nothing to do with Ashara's dishonour, and the Daynes are generally suspected of being at least partly privy to the ToJ events as the ones providing supplies and perhaps staff.

Also, though Arthur technically might be a candidate, there is nothing to tie him to Lyanna, unlike that crown of blue roses which keeps resurfacing.

- the bit bout Jon and his wet nurse getting to WF before Cat and Robb has always niggled at me more than it does most of you. The timeline would look something like this:

- sack of KL. Ravens go out to all Westeros that Aerys is dead and Robert to be crowned the new king.

- Ned marches south to SE and accepts surrender of Mace T & co.

- Ned and his 6 companions ride to the toj and kill the 3 KG. Death of Lyanna. Ned takes time to bury the KG with honor. Makes arrangements to have Lyanna's remains returned to WF.

- Ned takes Jon south to Starfall delivers Dawn to the Daynes. Ashara jumps to her death (while Ned is there? Does he stay for the funeral?). Ned, Wylla and Jon take ship to KL where Ned gets off.

- the ship goes back to sea and around to White Harbor where they catch a horse cart to WF. All the while traveling as Ned's bastard - so probably not getting any special treatment along the road.

- after all this still arrive at WF before Cat & Robb.

- Really?

- Maybe Bran will see something in TWOW that will reset the way we view this question?

Didn't Cat wait for Ned to notify her that she should set out for Winterfell?

[BearQueen87]

If someone looks like the obvious candidate, the clues are red herrings, and when the real candidate is revealed, there must be another set of less obvious clues which, in retrospect, click to their places.

???But he was banned from the high table in the books. He is seated elsewhere in the hall, among the servants, and pretty much moping while trying to convince himself that without supervision, he can drink as much as he wants.

And, due to Jon's Stark looks, there is not much to fear, no-one would start suspecting anything solely on Jon's looks - but note how Ned immediately cuts off the discussion when Robert starts prying about Wylla.

Good point. And that's how he will later get in good with Mance Rayder, "did you see where they sat the bastard?"

Alright then - what else could he have promised that kept haunting him, paid a price for and his sister had plead with him in fear to grant her on her deathbed? Definitely not to be buried in Winterfell

To me this is a big one. Lyanna shouldn't be scared that Ned wouldn't take her home to WF, because of course he would. So when the fear leaves her eyes after Ned promises, there is something much bigger going on than the promise Ned tells the world.

As for the Starfall theory: as I understand it, the KG would have to stay away from baby Jon so as not to reveal his existence. Secrecy was his best protection from Robert and Lannisters, and not letting anyone see Lyanna and find out that she had given birth was a crucial part of it.

Just gotta say, not a fan of this idea. It makes sense but from a literary perspective, having Jon in that tower during the showdown is much more OOMPH. Especially when Ned enters to find Lyanna, holding on to a baby boy.

Didn't Cat wait for Ned to notify her that she should set out for Winterfell?

I think so. She had to be sent for, which makes sense. Cat isn't going to travel on open road with a newborn after a war unless she's 100% sure that her husband will be there. Otherwise, just stay at Riverrun where you're safe.

[UnmaskedLurker]

Yes, that's nice, but there's also this from the same interview:

"Yes, it was always my intention: to play with the reader’s expectations. Before I was a writer I was a voracious reader and I am still, and I have read many, many books with very predictable plots. As a reader, what I seek is a book that delights and surprises me. I want to not know what is gonna happen. For me, that’s the essence of storytelling and for this reason I want my readers to turn the pages with increasing fever: to know what happens next. There are a lot of expectations, mainly in the fantasy genre, which you have the hero and he is the chosen one, and he is always protected by his destiny. I didn’t want it for my books."

btw

what if Jon is dead? How does that fit R+L=J?

While GRRM's comments suggest that Jon might die in the end, it does not allow for Jon dying at the end of book 5. There are way too many things for Jon to do, including find out his parentage (which GRRM has promised will happen).

The GRRM quote is interesting, however, and I am not sure how to take it. The prophesies and story arcs suggest that Jon will fulfill his destiny (with the 2 other heads of the dragon) to save humanity, and that Jon is the chosen one (TPTWP/AAR/etc.). So I am not quite sure how GRRM will avoid this "trope" if he really is determined to avoid it. Perhaps including Dany as instrumental in the endgame, culminating in her death could be sufficient in his mind to demonstrate that the trope is not followed. But I find that GRRM follows tropes more than he cares to admit, and I think our hero just might be a chosen one who is protected by his destiny--even if GRRM does not want such a thing for his books. I just cannot quite make sense of how the quote ties into what seems to be going on in the series and the overall story arcs.

[Ygrain]

Just gotta say, not a fan of this idea. It makes sense but from a literary perspective, having Jon in that tower during the showdown is much more OOMPH. Especially when Ned enters to find Lyanna, holding on to a baby boy.

I think so. She had to be sent for, which makes sense. Cat isn't going to travel on open road with a newborn after a war unless she's 100% sure that her husband will be there. Otherwise, just stay at Riverrun where you're safe.

Agreed that Jon's presence at the tower makes for a better story, I am just trying to provide a plausible explanation if Jon was not there.

I don't recall where Cat reminiscences on this and don't have the time to look it up right now, but I always understood that there was a considerable passage of time before she set out for Winterfell.

[BearQueen87]

I don't recall where Cat reminiscences on this and don't have the time to look it up right now, but I always understood that there was a considerable passage of time before she set out for Winterfell.

Cat's second POV in aGoT

The Starks were not like other men. Ned brought his bastard home with him, and called him "son" for all the North to see. When the wars were over at last, and Catelyn rode to Winterfell, Jon and his wet nurse had already taken up residence.

Also where Cat remembers asking about Ashara Dayne and Ned gets angry and tell her never to ask about Jon.

[FrozenFire3]

Yes, that's nice, but there's also this from the same interview:

"Yes, it was always my intention: to play with the reader’s expectations. Before I was a writer I was a voracious reader and I am still, and I have read many, many books with very predictable plots. As a reader, what I seek is a book that delights and surprises me. I want to not know what is gonna happen. For me, that’s the essence of storytelling and for this reason I want my readers to turn the pages with increasing fever: to know what happens next. There are a lot of expectations, mainly in the fantasy genre, which you have the hero and he is the chosen one, and he is always protected by his destiny. I didn’t want it for my books."

btw

what if Jon is dead? How does that fit R+L=J?

Oh, you think he’s dead, do you? LOL

Jocking aside, I certainly can't exclude Jon will die, but only when his story arc is complete. It's basic narrative economy: incipit, crescendo, climax/payoff. As for the 'hero protected by his destiny', I'm a classicist and Greek tragedy has taught me early on to never expect a 'Disney end' from a tale. Some posters on these boards think Martin has kind of 'revolutionized' storytelling by employing 'unexpected' twists and characterial 'greyness'. Well, a careful look at a few tragic (anti)heroes and relative story arcs will offer us some food for thoughts. I believe Martin is simply following in on the path established 3000+ years ago by some illustrious predecessors (he even mentions Homer as an inspiration) and ASoIaF is at its core a classical tragedy, whose symbolical and emotional backbone is supported by archetypes. In short, the song is the same but there are endless ways of singing it.

The wiki still lists her as unknown: http://awoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/House_Stark

The wiki can't upload leaks from TWoIaF... yet ;)

I forgot about the WOIAF tree. That's gorgeous btw. I'm not a collector, but I may have to have that . . .

Still knowing her name and that she's a Flint does not explain her non-appearance in the books and etc. I can't see any reason why she would be tied to the promise or the Jon mystery, but not knowing is no explanation.

She is not a Flint (Ned's grandmother is). She is a... Stark ;) Lady Stark, as per GRRM's witticism LOL And the recurring incest factor within the Stark family tree is one of those Martinian 'twists' people seem to like so much, except when it comes to personal theories (more or less textually supported) being debunked ;)

"You hate to lose any reader, but it is going to happen, regardless. In a long series, readers who loved the early books may envision the story going in certain directions. Often those directions are wildly divergent. When the later books actually come out, some of those readers are inevitably going to be upset, because the story on the page does not correspond with the one in their heads. Others may be delighted. I have lost readers with every book, I am sure... but I've gained a lot more.

[honeyed chicken]

Oh, you think he’s dead, do you? LOL

Jocking aside, I certainly can't exclude Jon will die, but only when his story arc is complete. It's basic narrative economy: incipit, crescendo, climax/payoff. As for the 'hero protected by his destiny', I'm a classicist and Greek tragedy has taught me early on to never expect a 'Disney end' from a tale. Some posters on these boards think Martin has kind of 'revolutionized' storytelling by employing 'unexpected' twists and characterial 'greyness'. Well, a careful look at a few tragic (anti)heroes and relative story arcs will offer us some food for thoughts. I believe Martin is simply following in on the path established 3000+ years ago by some illustrious predecessors (he even mentions Homer as an inspiration) and ASoIaF is at its core a classical tragedy, whose symbolical and emotional backbone is supported by archetypes. In short, the song is the same but there are endless ways of singing it.

The wiki can't upload leaks from TWoIaF... yet ;)

She is not a Flint (Ned's grandmother is). She is a... Stark ;) Lady Stark, as per GRRM's witticism LOL And the recurring incest factor within the Stark family tree is one of those Martinian 'twists' people seem to like so much, except when it comes to personal theories (more or less textually supported) being debunked ;)

That's pretty funny.

That is the exact reaction he wanted, I suspect. But I don't see why Jon can't die and go away totally. I don't think he will . . . elsewhere I've said that I expect him to die but receive a Beric/Thoros type kiss from Mel and in the reawakening either he or she will see the truth of his lineage.

Not a Flint? Well she's got Flint blood was what I meant.

As for the other earlier posts:

several of you use the word "giveaway" to describe why no mention of babies at the toj. Another word might be confirmation - as in, "without confimation you have no proof. The evidence is suggestive but not conclusive (as I've said before). Lacking confirmation the hypothesis is not permitted to graduate theory status. I think you all have created a really nice case (tough it is almost all "circumstantial evidence"). I just think you put too much stock in it. Maybe this is a generational issue (meaning, I'm 61 and I'm guessing most of you are 30 years less than that, at least). I've seen too many "sure things" not work out as they were touted to.

Consider the philosophy 101 question:

"How do you know what you know?"

"If you look at the side of a house and it is white, then you walk around to the other side of the house, is the first side still white? How do you know that it is?"

You'd probably answer that there wasn't time for anybody to change the color and practical reasons like that. You might even say that in your experience, it has never happened, so why would you expect it to?

Or you could choose the humble route and say, "I doubt if it has changed, but I do not know so for a fact. I'm not going to assume that it hasn't changed."

Of course, in the normal course of events people would think there's something wrong with you if you don't just admit, "yeah, that side of the house is white." But this is fantasy fiction from a master who likes to toy with expectations, so "normal" takes on a new meaning. People come back from the dead, there are zombies and dragons and whatnot - so what's normal in this world?

Therefore, I'm taking the "humble route".