R+L=J v.89

[corbon]

I might throw something at you. If I could actually find a way to virtually throw something at this moment, I would.

:box:

Just. Stop. Feeding. It.

[Jon_Samwell_Snow]

Did I miss something here? :dunno: :dunce:

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

Where are you getting 30 miles a day.

He counted the distance between KL and Trident as having been covered once in 14 days, while in GRRM math, it was covered twice in 14 days, thus it should be 60 miles a day.

Since I explained the Kl/Trident part having been covered twice in a fortnight multiple times in the last thread to him, I guess the option "conveniently forgetting info" was chosen.

As to the 60 miles a day, GRRM math doesn't always work like real life math. If GRRM wants less time to have passed, less time has passed, no matter how unrealistically it might seem.

[BearQueen87]

He counted the distance between KL and Trident as having been covered once in 14 days, while in GRRM math, it was covered twice in 14 days, thus it should be 60 miles a day.

Since I explained the Kl/Trident part having been covered twice in a fortnight multiple times in the last thread to him, I guess the option "conveniently forgetting info" was chosen.

As to the 60 miles a day, GRRM math doesn't always work like real life math. If GRRM wants less time to have passed, less time has passed, no matter how unrealistically it might seem.

Exactly. Like Cat traveling from Robb to treat with Renly. It was a BOOM YOU HAVE ARRIVED journey.

[Jon_Samwell_Snow]

Unless Ned was going really fast on his horse just to get to Lyanna at the ToJ.

[stateofdissipation]

Well, I do find it interesting and I hope other people are finding it interesting too. But while I'm one of the few on this thread arguing for the possibility that MarriedR+L may not actually be true, I know some other intelligent longtime posters (not on this thread, but on these boards) who also think my point of view may be more likely. They usually participate in the secondary threads rather than this one to discuss the point, because there's more of a chance in the secondary threads of getting up a discussion with a variety of different people both pro and con.

But hey! Here's a question I've been wondering about for awhile that has nothing to do with R+L's marriage or not-marriage! It's about Lyanna's "bed of blood." I thought of an explanation I don't recall having seen on these boards (though, of course, I may merely have missed it).

Most people attribute the "bed of blood" to Lyanna either having given birth recently, or continous slow bleeding due to a complicated birth some weeks prior. What if it isn't either? What if Lyanna has just had a medieval Caesarian?

In the medieval Catholic church, the church was occasionally asked what was to be done when there was a choice in a difficult labor of saving the mother or saving the child. IIRC, the church wavered at different times between refusing to make the choice OR saving the child at the expense of killing the mother. A Caesarian section was usually fatal to the mother in medieval and ancient times, but was the often the only way to save the child alive during a complicated labor - if saving the child was your primary aim, and the mother dispensable.

So what does this mean in Lyanna's particular case? Rhaegar purported to love Lyanna...but that love is a recent development for Rhaegar, compared with his obsession with TPTWP prophecy that's lasted most of his life. He thinks Lyanna's child will be instrumental to helping save the world. And birth complications are not uncommon in a medieval world.

Given that, what do youse all think of what instructions Rhaegar might have left to the midwife on what to do if it DID come down to a choice between the mother and the child? Myself, I actually incline to think that it would never occur to impractical-minded Rhaegar that the gods'-ordained birth of the third head of the dragon could possibly be complicated. However, given the whole legend of Nissa Nissa the sacrificial lamb, I wouldn't put it past Rhaegar's prophecy-addled brain to MAYBE believe that the sacrifice of Lyanna might become necessary to save the world. Thoughts?

Most people attribute the "bed of blood" to Lyanna either having given birth recently, or continous slow bleeding due to a complicated birth some weeks prior. What if it isn't either? What if Lyanna has just had a medieval Caesarian?

Bloody bed in aGoT refers only to childbirth...

"That was the way of this cold world, where men fished the sea and dug in the ground and died, whilst women brought forth short-lived children from beds of blood and pain."

- AFfC p. 21

“Before,” Dany said to the ugly Lhazareen woman, “I heard you speak of birthing songs …”

“I know every secret of the bloody bed, Silver Lady, nor have I ever lost a babe,” Mirri Maz Duur replied. AGOT chapter 61

The post partum bleeding can last 6 weeks

http://www.babycenter.com/0_postpartum-normal-bleeding-and-discharge-lochia_11722.bc

The KG mean king present hypothesis requires Jon to be born before Ned arrives. Without that requirement there is no reason to extend the term from birth to birth plus 6 weeks.

I thought to provide an example of the difference between birth and postpartum bleeding:

BIRTH

500mls or less, others 600 mls or less, a few suggest that 1000mls (bed of blood or bloody bed)--- 1000ml is 2.8 cans of coke.

http://www.birth.com.au/an-overview-of-a-natural-3rd-stage-of-labour/bleeding-what-is-normal#.U8zYSfl_vT8

POSTPARTUM BLEEDING

60-80 ml or more. (spotted sheets)---- 80 ml is 1.3 eight hour energy shots

http://www.whattoexpect.com/pregnancy/symptoms-and-solutions/postpartum-bleeding.aspx

http://www.patient.co.uk/health/heavy-periods-menorrhagia

[stateofdissipation]

He counted the distance between KL and Trident as having been covered once in 14 days, while in GRRM math, it was covered twice in 14 days, thus it should be 60 miles a day.

Since I explained the Kl/Trident part having been covered twice in a fortnight multiple times in the last thread to him, I guess the option "conveniently forgetting info" was chosen.

As to the 60 miles a day, GRRM math doesn't always work like real life math. If GRRM wants less time to have passed, less time has passed, no matter how unrealistically it might seem.

You base your 60 miles a day on the 14 days Rossart was hand.

Rossart was hand after Chelsted.

Chelsted was burned before Rhaella fled.

Rhaella fled after the Trident

That was the reasoning of how it was 14 days to go 700 miles--- (50 miles a day)

Now this assumes that Rossart was immediately appointed hand on the burning of Chelsted.

As to the 60 miles a day, GRRM math doesn't always work like real life math. If GRRM wants less time to have passed, less time has passed, no matter how unrealistically it might seem.--

Your assumptions do not work. GRRM did not provide the hard time. The time you provided proves to be an impossibility.

(If you can give sources to make the distance of between KL and the Trident covered twice in 14 days-- please do so)

http://historum.com/war-military-history/50719-how-many-miles-could-medieval-army-move-day.html

Has marching speed of 15 to 18 miles a day

https://answers.yahoo.com/question/index?qid=20101130194946AA0HzpG

The army of Edward IV once marched 28 miles in a day, pursuing the Lancastrian army of Margaret of Anjou, so as to bring them to battle; this forced march resulted in the battle of Tewkesbury (1471), a decisive victory for Edward.

However, such distances in a days march were extremely rare for a Medieval army.As already mentioned in a previous answer, 8-10 miles day was the norm.

Knights had at least 2 horses; a palfrey for riding on the march, and a charger for actual battle. as the charger wouldn't be carrying any load during the march, and as the palfrey didn't need to be fresh for battle,purely mounted forces could travel at an average of about 30 miles a day.

it was covered twice in 14 days, thus it should be 60 miles a day.

5 miles an hour for 12 hours is 60 miles in a day

A forced march is 4 miles per hour-- so 15 hours of forced march a day for 5 straight days.

Walk: Roughly 3-4 MPH. A pleasure show horse can go as slow as 2 mph. Gaited horses-- who do not trot-- can do a 'running walk' as fast as 15 mph.

Trot: The trot is roughly 8-10 MPH. Again, a shorter striding horse could trot slower, and a horse with a long stride could move faster.

Canter/Lope: 10-17 MPH.

Gallop: This depends on the horse's condition and athletic ability. Some horses are not built to run fast an may only do a fast canter at their best; however, the gallop is about 30 mph. Thoroughbreds, which are bred for running distance but not speed, have been clocked at over 40 MPH. Quarter horses, bred and raced for short distances at speed, can reach 50 MPH in short bursts according to the AQHA's website.

With an entirely mounted force and fresh mounts spaced evenly along the route. 60 miles per day is doable

To maintain the rigid schedule, 157 relay stations were located from 5 to 25 miles (8.0 to 40.2 km) apart as the terrain would allow for. At each swing station, riders would exchange their tired mounts for fresh ones, while "home stations" provided room and board for the riders between runs. This technique allowed the mail to be whisked across the continent in record time. Each rider rode about 75 miles

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pony_Express

[stateofdissipation]

He counted the distance between KL and Trident as having been covered once in 14 days, while in GRRM math, it was covered twice in 14 days, thus it should be 60 miles a day.

Since I explained the Kl/Trident part having been covered twice in a fortnight multiple times in the last thread to him, I guess the option "conveniently forgetting info" was chosen.

As to the 60 miles a day, GRRM math doesn't always work like real life math. If GRRM wants less time to have passed, less time has passed, no matter how unrealistically it might seem.

60 miles a day--there is a statue in south africa for a horse that made 600 miles in 10 days.---For Ned to cover the distance in the same time he would need to do it more than twice.

Ned 21 days

News 12 days

Jon 9 days at the youngest for Ned's arrival

Jon was born 8 or 9 months or thereabouts before Dany. Dany born 9 months after Rhaegars death and the sack of KL.

8 months before Dany (Rhaegar's death).--Jon born 2 days after Ned arrives-- 21 KL to ToJ plus 7 to Trident

8 months before Dany (sack of KL) --Jon born 9 days after Ned arrives

---neither possible for KG equals king present

--possibility starts for KG equals king present at;

8 months 11 days before Dany (Rhaegar's death)

8 months 18 days before Dany (sack of KL)

If message of Trident arrived via raven 2 days 950 miles

8 months 28 days before Dany (Rhaegar's death)

Jon 28 days old when Ned arrives.

If message of sack arrived via raven 1 day 600 miles

8 months 29 days before Dany (sack of KL)

Jon 21 days old when Ned arrives.

[alienarea]

I fail to understand the math. Like back in school.

[stateofdissipation]

I fail to understand the math. Like back in school.

It is just distance rate and time

[JonCon's Red Beard]

I fail to understand the math. Like back in school.

I went to Math Faculty in College and I'm confused :/

[Ygrain]

We lost 6 pages of brilliance just like that! Good heavens.

You make very good arguments and are most civil while doing so. I think that is why you were one of the first, if not the first person on Westeros that I friended when I got active on these boards over a year ago.

I've been seeing pieces of that quote throughout the day, but it was smart of you to include the whole thing. The fact that Ned saw Jon's face at that point is strongly suggestive. But it is not inconceivable to me that he could have thought of Jon in that instance if Jon had been Ned & Wylla's.

Compare these two bits: We have Lyanna's and Barra's mother's reaction to Ned's promise. In the latter case, we know that the promise concerned the child, and the similarity of the reaction immediately bring about the thoughts of Jon.

The fever had taken her strength and her voice had been faint as a whisper, but when he gave her his word, the fear had gone out of his sister’s eyes. Ned remembered the way she had smiled then, how tightly her fingers had clutched his as she gave up her hold on life, the rose petals spilling from her palm, dead and black.

“I will tell him, child, and I promise you, Barra shall not go wanting.”

She had smiled then, a smile so tremulous and sweet that it cut the heart out of him. Riding through the rainy night, Ned saw Jon Snow’s face in front of him, so like a younger version of his own.

Also, this is an interesting piece:

“Treachery was a coin the Targaryens knew well,” Robert said. The anger was building in him again. “Lannister paid them back in kind. It was no less than they deserved. I shall not trouble my sleep over it.”

“You were not there,” Ned said, bitterness in his voice. Troubled sleep was no stranger to him. He had lived his lies for fourteen years, yet they still haunted him at night. “There was no honor in that conquest.”

“The Others take your honor!” Robert swore. “What did any Targaryen ever know of honor? Go down into your crypt and ask Lyanna about the dragon’s honor!”

“You avenged Lyanna at the Trident,” Ned said, halting beside the king. Promise me, Ned, she had whispered.

We have here the fate of the Targaryens, which somehow connects to the thoughts of lies and troubled sleep, and we have here Targaryen honor, namely Rhaegar's, which, for some reason, evokes the promise to Lyanna, which, for some reason, Ned doesn't share with Robert, even though he previously told him about Lyanna's wish to be buried at Winterfell. This wish, though, doesn't fit in the context at all, so it is some other promise. The only explanation I can think of is that Ned knows that Rhaegar didn't treat Lyanna dishonourably but that's something he absolutely cannot tell Robert.

The reason why he has to keep a secret like that comes a bit later:

“Why should Tyrion Lannister want Bran dead? The boy has never done him harm.”

“Do you Starks have nought but snow between your ears?” Littlefinger asked. “The Imp would never have acted alone.”

Ned rose and paced the length of the room. “If the queen had a role in this or, gods forbid, the king himself … no, I will not believe that.”

Yet even as he said the words, he remembered that chill morning on the barrowlands, and Robert’s talk of sending hired knives after the Targaryen princess. He remembered Rhaegar’s infant son, the red ruin of his skull, and the way the king had turned away, as he had turned away in Darry’s audience hall not so long ago. He could still hear Sansa pleading, as Lyanna had pleaded once. “Most likely the king did not know,” Littlefinger said. “It would not be the first time. Our good Robert is practiced at closing his eyes to things he would rather not see.”

Ned had no reply for that. The face of the butcher’s boy swam up before his eyes, cloven almost in two, and afterward the king had said not a word.

We have here a list of murders or attempted murders of children, which Robert orders, condones or simply turns away from, and in this context, Ned remembers Lyanna, in connection with Sansa pleading for Lady. What is it that Sansa is pleading?

“Stop them,” Sansa pleaded, “don’t let them do it, please, please, it wasn’t Lady, it was Nymeria, Arya did it, you can’t, it wasn’t Lady, don’t let them hurt Lady, I’ll make her be good, I promise, I promise …”

All these extracts are interconnected - Lannisters causing the deaths of innocents, Robert turning away, and Robert turning away from the murders of innocents brings about the memory of Lyanna.

[Stubby]

[MOD]

Despite the mod warning in the previous incarnation of this thread, there is too much chatting going on here.

Consistent with the forum rules, please refrain from posting emoticons without any text and chatting about off-topic stuff.

Thanks.

[/MOD]

[stateofdissipation]

Compare these two bits: We have Lyanna's and Barra's mother's reaction to Ned's promise. In the latter case, we know that the promise concerned the child, and the similarity of the reaction immediately bring about the thoughts of Jon.

The fever had taken her strength and her voice had been faint as a whisper, but when he gave her his word, the fear had gone out of his sister’s eyes. Ned remembered the way she had smiled then, how tightly her fingers had clutched his as she gave up her hold on life, the rose petals spilling from her palm, dead and black.

“I will tell him, child, and I promise you, Barra shall not go wanting.”

She had smiled then, a smile so tremulous and sweet that it cut the heart out of him. Riding through the rainy night, Ned saw Jon Snow’s face in front of him, so like a younger version of his own.

Also, this is an interesting piece:

“Treachery was a coin the Targaryens knew well,” Robert said. The anger was building in him again. “Lannister paid them back in kind. It was no less than they deserved. I shall not trouble my sleep over it.”

“You were not there,” Ned said, bitterness in his voice. Troubled sleep was no stranger to him. He had lived his lies for fourteen years, yet they still haunted him at night. “There was no honor in that conquest.”

“The Others take your honor!” Robert swore. “What did any Targaryen ever know of honor? Go down into your crypt and ask Lyanna about the dragon’s honor!”

“You avenged Lyanna at the Trident,” Ned said, halting beside the king. Promise me, Ned, she had whispered.

We have here the fate of the Targaryens, which somehow connects to the thoughts of lies and troubled sleep, and we have here Targaryen honor, namely Rhaegar's, which, for some reason, evokes the promise to Lyanna, which, for some reason, Ned doesn't share with Robert, even though he previously told him about Lyanna's wish to be buried at Winterfell. This wish, though, doesn't fit in the context at all, so it is some other promise. The only explanation I can think of is that Ned knows that Rhaegar didn't treat Lyanna dishonourably but that's something he absolutely cannot tell Robert.

The reason why he has to keep a secret like that comes a bit later:

“Why should Tyrion Lannister want Bran dead? The boy has never done him harm.”

“Do you Starks have nought but snow between your ears?” Littlefinger asked. “The Imp would never have acted alone.”

Ned rose and paced the length of the room. “If the queen had a role in this or, gods forbid, the king himself … no, I will not believe that.”

Yet even as he said the words, he remembered that chill morning on the barrowlands, and Robert’s talk of sending hired knives after the Targaryen princess. He remembered Rhaegar’s infant son, the red ruin of his skull, and the way the king had turned away, as he had turned away in Darry’s audience hall not so long ago. He could still hear Sansa pleading, as Lyanna had pleaded once. “Most likely the king did not know,” Littlefinger said. “It would not be the first time. Our good Robert is practiced at closing his eyes to things he would rather not see.”

Ned had no reply for that. The face of the butcher’s boy swam up before his eyes, cloven almost in two, and afterward the king had said not a word.

We have here a list of murders or attempted murders of children, which Robert orders, condones or simply turns away from, and in this context, Ned remembers Lyanna, in connection with Sansa pleading for Lady. What is it that Sansa is pleading?

“Stop them,” Sansa pleaded, “don’t let them do it, please, please, it wasn’t Lady, it was Nymeria, Arya did it, you can’t, it wasn’t Lady, don’t let them hurt Lady, I’ll make her be good, I promise, I promise …”

All these extracts are interconnected - Lannisters causing the deaths of innocents, Robert turning away, and Robert turning away from the murders of innocents brings about the memory of Lyanna.

Refreshing post you have there. Nice to hear some new material and perspective.

Troubled sleep was no stranger to him. He had lived his lies for fourteen years.

I can think a lie that Ned told.Robert 14 years ago That Lyanna was killed by the Targaryens. (which was not exactly a lie)

I can think a lie Ned told Robert after the boar that Joffrey was his son (writing down "trueborn heir" instead of "my son Joffrey" without telling Robert was not exactly a lie)

Both were lies to spare Roberts feelings after it was too late to change anything.

Robert had won the rebellion he had fought for a girl: Telling him the truth would only hurt him and make the irreversible rebellion a lie.

Robert was dying: Telling him the truth about Joffrey would only hurt him.

[Jon Weirgaryen]

I am very impressed again with your writing @Ygrain the examples and reasoning, and especially the flashback of the death verdict on Lady, set into context which has a very new feel to it.

[...] “Stop them,” [...]

Living lies for fourteen years is definitely different to having told a lie once fourteen years ago to a friend you have been avoiding ever since whenever you could and having that single "wrongdoing" stuck in one's conscience.

Unlike meeting your protegee every morning at breakfast, having to look in his eyes and having to remember the dead sister who died from birthing him and your promises.

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

Rossart was hand after Chelsted.

Chelsted was burned before Rhaella fled.

Rhaella fled after the Trident

That was the reasoning of how it was 14 days to go 700 miles--- (50 miles a day)

Now this assumes that Rossart was immediately appointed hand on the burning of Chelsted.

Your assumptions do not work. GRRM did not provide the hard time. The time you provided proves to be an impossibility.

(If you can give sources to make the distance of between KL and the Trident covered twice in 14 days-- please do so)

Chelsted was burned before Rhaegar left for the Trident. Seeing as how Rossart was the favorite pyromancer who, it seems, assisted in burning people, Aerys won't have thought long about such a decision. Realise that in your scenario, Aerys is without a Hand for more than a fortnight. With Rossart visiting the king day and night, and in war time, that it most highly unlikely.

As to the covering of the distance between KL and the Trident twice in a fortnight. I explained that very clearly in the previous version of this tread. I have done so since hear discussions began. I suggest you read them back.

Real life marching speeds don't work in this story. GRRM doesn't use them, so of course it won't fit. When GRRM wants an army to travel a certain distance in 10 days, the army travels that distance in those days. If he wants that army to take 20 days, they take 20 days. He writes as he will, and has asked not to search for mistakes in the timeline, mistakes which, if we use real life speeds for everything, obviously exist.

I think I speak for many people on this thread if I politely ask you to drop this discussion now, at least here. You've said what you wanted to say, we've read it, we've replied to it, we've said all we wanted to say about it, and yet you keep going. Just read back the last thread, followed by the first few pages of this one.

If you insist on continuing the discussion on the travel of Ned and when he arrived at TOJ, you can do so, but I suggest you create a thread for it then, though I think everything that can be said about it has been said in he past week or so. We start to go in circles, repeating ourselves. Which is fine, of course, otherwise we wouldn't have 89 versions of this thread. But seeing as it has been about a week since it was all said, it seems a bit early for repeating.

[stateofdissipation]

Chelsted was burned before Rhaegar left for the Trident. Seeing as how Rossart was the favorite pyromancer who, it seems, assisted in burning people, Aerys won't have thought long about such a decision. Realise that in your scenario, Aerys is without a Hand for more than a fortnight. With Rossart visiting the king day and night, and in war time, that it most highly unlikely.

As to the covering of the distance between KL and the Trident twice in a fortnight. I explained that very clearly in the previous version of this tread. I have done so since hear discussions began. I suggest you read them back.

Real life marching speeds don't work in this story. GRRM doesn't use them, so of course it won't fit. When GRRM wants an army to travel a certain distance in 10 days, the army travels that distance in those days. If he wants that army to take 20 days, they take 20 days. He writes as he will, and has asked not to search for mistakes in the timeline, mistakes which, if we use real life speeds for everything, obviously exist.

I think I speak for many people on this thread if I politely ask you to drop this discussion now, at least here. You've said what you wanted to say, we've read it, we've replied to it, we've said all we wanted to say about it, and yet you keep going. Just read back the last thread, followed by the first few pages of this one.

If you insist on continuing the discussion on the travel of Ned and when he arrived at TOJ, you can do so, but I suggest you create a thread for it then, though I think everything that can be said about it has been said in he past week or so. We start to go in circles, repeating ourselves. Which is fine, of course, otherwise we wouldn't have 89 versions of this thread. But seeing as it has been about a week since it was all said, it seems a bit early for repeating.

Chelsted was burned before Rhaegar left for the Trident. Seeing as how Rossart was the favorite pyromancer who, it seems, assisted in burning people, Aerys won't have thought long about such a decision. Realise that in your scenario, Aerys is without a Hand for more than a fortnight. With Rossart visiting the king day and night, and in war time, that it most highly unlikely.

I do not have a scenario. I have no source for the start to the 14 days.--I listed the sources for the rates of march and distances.--I calculated for your estimated 60 miles a day down to 15.

As to the covering of the distance between KL and the Trident twice in a fortnight. I explained that very clearly in the previous version of this tread. I have done so since hear discussions began. I suggest you read them back.

Your estimation of 60 miles a day was included.

I think I speak for many people on this thread if I politely ask you to drop this discussion now, at least here. You've said what you wanted to say, we've read it, we've replied to it, we've said all we wanted to say about it, and yet you keep going. Just read back the last thread, followed by the first few pages of this one.

You stated your timeline. I added an increased rate of speed for a smaller party all mounted. You adjusted speed, route, rest times, terrain , and weather and arrived at the ToJ at the exact time you did in your initial calculation. I asked for the justification to modify route, rest times, terrain, and weather. You explained in detail the impact of each but not the reason they were only valid for a smaller mounted group. Unless of course I am remembering the wrong time and distance scenario we went over.

If you insist on continuing the discussion on the travel of Ned and when he arrived at TOJ, you can do so, but I suggest you create a thread for it then, though I think everything that can be said about it has been said in he past week or so. We start to go in circles, repeating ourselves. Which is fine, of course, otherwise we wouldn't have 89 versions of this thread. But seeing as it has been about a week since it was all said, it seems a bit early for repeating.

I have deliberately tried to be vague about such things, so I don't have obsessive fans with rulers measuring distances on the map and telling me Ned couldn't get from X to Y in the time I say he did.--GRRM

http://www.westeros.org/Citadel/SSM/Entry/Size_of_Westeros

GRRM has been deliberately vague about such things. Obsessive fans with rulers measuring distances on a map telling GRRM Ned could't get from X to Y in the time GRRM says he did, are completely out of luck.

Theorists are remarkably accurate about such things. Obsessive theorists with rulers measuring distances on a map can tell that a theory could not get Ned from X to Y in the time the theory says it did.

One can test the theory to first see if it fits within GRRM's paramaters, then one can test to see if the theory fits into its own paramaters.

If you arrived at your conclusions based events, information, and places in the text through sound reasoning, the obsessive measuring will do nothing but confirm the theory.

If you arrived at your conclusion before or in spite of events, information, and places in the text and/or faulty reasoning, measuring may confirm that.

It is an interesting time to cite a concern for repetition, though the questions on information flow and travel times to the ToJ have not been addressed and point to severe complications with the kingsguard means king present hypothesis.

[honeyed chicken]

How much evidence do you accept from the show? There are some things there as well; like a RL carved into a post right next to Jon's head when he's telling Sam about how it feels to be a bastard. The blue rose pops up in the throne room EVERYWHERE including in Dany's HotU vision where Snow is falling all around the throne.

It could be a false lead, I agree. But when the evidence really begins to pile up, at what point do all the false leads start to become truth?

So my question to you is what's the 2%holding you back?

The 2% is caution.

Have you ever correctly identified the solution to a mystery novel? I never have. The author is always more clever at coming up with a culprit that fits all the information they've given than I am at reading the clues.

You guys have been very thorough, I'll give you that. I find all the quotations highly suggestive, but not conclusive. It certainly may be what you say, but what would your reaction be if GRRM presents you with a different answer than the one you expect?

My reaction if R+L=/= J? Disappointment, because I love the idea of Jon being a hidden prince (although we do have one of those already in fAegon). Jon being Rhaegar's son means there are 3 Targs for the 3 dragons, which has a pleasing symmetry. But GRRM doesn't really do "pleasing symmetry" does he? He does real life which is clunky and crude and chaotic.

And that's why I hold back 2% for doubt.

Compare these two bits: We have Lyanna's and Barra's mother's reaction to Ned's promise. In the latter case, we know that the promise concerned the child, and the similarity of the reaction immediately bring about the thoughts of Jon.

The fever had taken her strength and her voice had been faint as a whisper, but when he gave her his word, the fear had gone out of his sister’s eyes. Ned remembered the way she had smiled then, how tightly her fingers had clutched his as she gave up her hold on life, the rose petals spilling from her palm, dead and black.

“I will tell him, child, and I promise you, Barra shall not go wanting.”

She had smiled then, a smile so tremulous and sweet that it cut the heart out of him. Riding through the rainy night, Ned saw Jon Snow’s face in front of him, so like a younger version of his own.

Also, this is an interesting piece:

“Treachery was a coin the Targaryens knew well,” Robert said. The anger was building in him again. “Lannister paid them back in kind. It was no less than they deserved. I shall not trouble my sleep over it.”

“You were not there,” Ned said, bitterness in his voice. Troubled sleep was no stranger to him. He had lived his lies for fourteen years, yet they still haunted him at night. “There was no honor in that conquest.”

“The Others take your honor!” Robert swore. “What did any Targaryen ever know of honor? Go down into your crypt and ask Lyanna about the dragon’s honor!”

“You avenged Lyanna at the Trident,” Ned said, halting beside the king. Promise me, Ned, she had whispered.

We have here the fate of the Targaryens, which somehow connects to the thoughts of lies and troubled sleep, and we have here Targaryen honor, namely Rhaegar's, which, for some reason, evokes the promise to Lyanna, which, for some reason, Ned doesn't share with Robert, even though he previously told him about Lyanna's wish to be buried at Winterfell. This wish, though, doesn't fit in the context at all, so it is some other promise. The only explanation I can think of is that Ned knows that Rhaegar didn't treat Lyanna dishonourably but that's something he absolutely cannot tell Robert.

The reason why he has to keep a secret like that comes a bit later:

“Why should Tyrion Lannister want Bran dead? The boy has never done him harm.”

“Do you Starks have nought but snow between your ears?” Littlefinger asked. “The Imp would never have acted alone.”

Ned rose and paced the length of the room. “If the queen had a role in this or, gods forbid, the king himself … no, I will not believe that.”

Yet even as he said the words, he remembered that chill morning on the barrowlands, and Robert’s talk of sending hired knives after the Targaryen princess. He remembered Rhaegar’s infant son, the red ruin of his skull, and the way the king had turned away, as he had turned away in Darry’s audience hall not so long ago. He could still hear Sansa pleading, as Lyanna had pleaded once. “Most likely the king did not know,” Littlefinger said. “It would not be the first time. Our good Robert is practiced at closing his eyes to things he would rather not see.”

Ned had no reply for that. The face of the butcher’s boy swam up before his eyes, cloven almost in two, and afterward the king had said not a word.

We have here a list of murders or attempted murders of children, which Robert orders, condones or simply turns away from, and in this context, Ned remembers Lyanna, in connection with Sansa pleading for Lady. What is it that Sansa is pleading?

“Stop them,” Sansa pleaded, “don’t let them do it, please, please, it wasn’t Lady, it was Nymeria, Arya did it, you can’t, it wasn’t Lady, don’t let them hurt Lady, I’ll make her be good, I promise, I promise …”

All these extracts are interconnected - Lannisters causing the deaths of innocents, Robert turning away, and Robert turning away from the murders of innocents brings about the memory of Lyanna.

Very well said and argued.

It all makes perfect sense and you're probably right. I hope you are right because the Targaryen connection for Jon explains Ned's torment and the lies.

Here's the thought exercise I would pose to you: say your life depended on being right about R+L = J. Would you not turn the question around and try to poke holes in this answer? Play devil's advocate and see what you can find.

[BearQueen87]

The 2% is caution.

Have you ever correctly identified the solution to a mystery novel? I never have. The author is always more clever at coming up with a culprit that fits all the information they've given than I am at reading the clues.

You guys have been very thorough, I'll give you that. I find all the quotations highly suggestive, but not conclusive. It certainly may be what you say, but what would your reaction be if GRRM presents you with a different answer than the one you expect?

My reaction if R+L=/= J? Disappointment, because I love the idea of Jon being a hidden prince (although we do have one of those already in fAegon). Jon being Rhaegar's son means there are 3 Targs for the 3 dragons, which has a pleasing symmetry. But GRRM doesn't really do "pleasing symmetry" does he? He does real life which is clunky and crude and chaotic.

And that's why I hold back 2% for doubt.

I've never been able to solve mysteries. lol. But I didn't exactly solve this one either on the first read. It took a few reads and really thinking it out. And even then it wasn't until I came here that I was clued into them being married.

If it turns out that R+ L =/= J then that's okay; it's GRRM's work. He can do as he pleases, but I honestly rather doubt it at this point.

[JonSnow4President]

The 2% is caution.

Have you ever correctly identified the solution to a mystery novel? I never have. The author is always more clever at coming up with a culprit that fits all the information they've given than I am at reading the clues.

You guys have been very thorough, I'll give you that. I find all the quotations highly suggestive, but not conclusive. It certainly may be what you say, but what would your reaction be if GRRM presents you with a different answer than the one you expect?

My reaction if R+L=/= J? Disappointment, because I love the idea of Jon being a hidden prince (although we do have one of those already in fAegon). Jon being Rhaegar's son means there are 3 Targs for the 3 dragons, which has a pleasing symmetry. But GRRM doesn't really do "pleasing symmetry" does he? He does real life which is clunky and crude and chaotic.

And that's why I hold back 2% for doubt.

Very well said and argued.

It all makes perfect sense and you're probably right. I hope you are right because the Targaryen connection for Jon explains Ned's torment and the lies.

Here's the thought exercise I would pose to you: say your life depended on being right about R+L = J. Would you not turn the question around and try to poke holes in this answer? Play devil's advocate and see what you can find.

The thing is, it's so hard to play devil's advocate on this one. There isn't a real alternative, either for Rhaegar's and Lyanna's son, or for Jon's mother if Ned were to be his father. Like he said in an SSM, he's laying out the clues that the butler did it, so it's likely that the butler did it. I'd be more cautious if there were some clues that the maid or mistress, but we don't really have those.