Robb Could Have Won

[Trigger Warning]

When did he almost capture Tywin?

[Bright Blue Eyes]

But Roose was working against Robb. Even if he wasn't, Robb's army was too small, half the Northern forces were stuck behind Moat Cailin and the Tyrell-Lannister army can muster 100,000 men, and split into 30k,30k and 40k, all significantly larger forces than Robb's.

Robb was on his way to solve that issue. Furthermore, the Tyrell-Lannister army would have to deal with Euron, secure against the Dornish and in the end Aegon as well.

Yep. A North, Riverlands and Vale united front (even if the Vale was an independent kingdom) would have easily defeated Tywin, who would have been stuck in Harrenhal with the God's Eye to the south and three armies surrounding him from the north, east and west.

Don't forget that the Vale has about as much men as the North or the Riverlands individually. It's not that much more.

People who say it was impossible for him to win are just buying into the "Tywin Lannister is almighty and an invincible genius" Lannister kool-aid and not reading what actually happened.

Spot on.

How on earth could Robb achieve such a break up, given that neither Tywin Lannister nor Renly Baratheon nor Stannis Baratheon would have permitted it?

If they don't get anywhere, their bannermen will simply refuse to fight anymore in time. Don't forget that the Vale and Dorne ignored the IT's orders anyway and the Ironborn were openly rebelling.

As for the Vale, this comes back to the independence issue being foolish. The Vale doesn't want to secede. Why would it? It is culturally and economically part of the South, and far wealthier than the North. Even leaving aside Lysa Arryn, what motive would they have to approve a breakup, when they would otherwise be happy to gang up on the Lannisters and leave it at that?

Why should it stay with the South? Even more importantly, whom should the Vale support for the IT and why?

[The Wolves]

It's flat out not achievable in the long run (i.e. once the South has finished squabbling). Certainly not by force of arms.

It was apart for thousands of years and only 300yrs ago became part of the other regions.

Even with the North part of the Iron Throne they were isolated and managed fine. It's just until recently that they have become part of the the South and they suffered.

Why wouldn't it have worked?

[Winterfell is Burning]

It was apart for thousands of years and only 300yrs ago became part of the other regions.

Even with the North part of the Iron Throne they were isolated and managed fine. It's just until recently that they have become part of the the South and they suffered.

Why wouldn't it have worked?

Yes. If the North, Riverlands, Vale and Iron Islands are fighting for independence, that means half the Seven Kingdoms are already rebelling.

And anyway the 7K being together was only achieved by dragons, it's not a natural state for them.

[Lord Reaver]

Why wouldn't it have worked?

Because the North has no navy and thus is vulnerable to a naval invasion. Particularly their main defense, Moat Cailin, as shown by the Ironborn.

[The Wolves]

Yes. If the North, Riverlands, Vale and Iron Islands are fighting for independence, that means half the Seven Kingdoms are already rebelling.

And anyway the 7K being together was only achieved by dragons, it's not a natural state for them.

I'm not against the 7K staying together it's just that people act like the North needs the South when for thousands of years it has done and managed better than probably any kingdom.

[The Wolves]

Because the North has no navy and thus is vulnerable to a naval invasion. Particularly their main defense, Moat Cailin, as shown by the Ironborn.

Not having a navy is very fixable the North has the biggest forest in Westerosi and more forest area in the north like by the Umber lands, they also have a port City which is a main city in Westeros.

Any Stark could demand that a navy he built and like Manderly have shown cause he's built a Northern navy with 50 ships, it's very much possible.

And the North is a natural defense on its own with horrible winters so the Iron Men taking Moat Cailin would be hard with the whole North at their backs and cannogmen with poisonous arrows waiting for them.

[Sir Lee knot]

The problem is he is tied to the Riverlands, an area that's been invaded and conquered over and over agian.

If he just had the North he could have held it forever but he could not do that with the Riverlands.

With no ally to help he had to either take King's Landing or give up the Riverlands.

I think the Riverlands are far underrated. In terms of defensibly at least they have Rivers. Look at the Reach, they have what? Open grassland... Plenty of countries in real life have defended geographically similar places to the Riverlands. The point is that the Riverlands aren't any less defendable then a lot of other regions.

Robb's army was too small, half the Northern forces were stuck behind Moat Cailin and the Tyrell-Lannister army can muster 100,000 men, and split into 30k,30k and 40k, all significantly larger forces than Robb's.

Robb would have easily gotten Moat Cailin back considering the Ironborn were pulling out of the north anyways. Once Robb went north and rallied the rest of the northern manpower he'd have about 15,000-25,000 fresh troops. So his army would be about 30,000-45,000 strong not including Edmure's soldiers.

Meanwhile the Crown has to deal with Euron in the Reach, Aegon in the Stormlands, and Stannis doing whatever Stannis does. Also quite possibly the Dornish as well.

It's flat out not achievable in the long run (i.e. once the South has finished squabbling). Certainly not by force of arms.

As already pointed out it seems very unlikely the south will ever be reunited. The only reason it ever was united is because of Dragons and Dany isn't exactly a sure cause to bet on.

The Crown might push back Euron but conquering the Iron Isles is a different story. They could reasonable kill Aegon as well but forcing the Dornish back into the Kingdoms doesn't seem possible. And even though the Vale is currently apart of the seven Kingdoms they have ignored all orders thus far and continue to plot treachery. It's like saying in the medieval ages "once Europe has finished squabbling they can conquer Asia!"

Not having a navy is very fixable the North has the biggest forest in Westerosi and more forest area in the north like by the Umber lands, they also have a port City which is a main city in Westeros.

Any Stark could demand that a navy he built and like Manderly have shown cause he's built a Northern navy with 50 ships, it's very much possible.

And the North is a natural defense on its own with horrible winters so the Iron Men taking Moat Cailin would be hard with the whole North at their backs and cannogmen with poisonous arrows waiting for them.

:agree:

The north could easily build a large navy and has been since AGOT. Also trying to take the north in winter is comparable to trying to take Russia in winter.

When did he almost capture Tywin?

Before Battle of Black Water Bay when Edmure was supposed to stay put but didn't listen which costed Robb an instant victory. I

[Trigger Warning]

Before Battle of Black Water Bay when Edmure was supposed to stay put but didn't listen which costed Robb an instant victory. I

That's quite a strong assumption.

[Lord Reaver]

The north could easily build a large navy and has been since AGOT. Also trying to take the north in winter is comparable to trying to take Russia in winter.

The North has built a fleet of 50 ships. In comparison, the Iron islands rebuilt their fleet of 500-1000 ships in 10 years. And that is only one of the three major fleets the IT can call on. Thinkibg that the North has either the manpower or resources to match that is delusional.

Who says anything about taking the North in winter ? Westeros has summers that last for a decade, plenty of time to completely subdue it.

[Sir Lee knot]

That's quite a strong assumption.

I guess it sorta is. But if he had trapped Tywin in the west then Stannis would have taken Kingslanding and Tywin would be surrounded by Robb and Edmure's armies and probably would have been captured or his army smashed.

The North has built a fleet of 50 ships. In comparison, the Iron islands rebuilt their fleet of 500-1000 ships in 10 years. And that is only one of the three major fleets the IT can call on. Thinkibg that the North has either the manpower or resources to match that is delusional.

Who says anything about taking the North in winter ? Westeros has summers that last for a decade, plenty of time to completely subdue it.

You basically laid my argument out for me. The Iron Islands are said to be a mostly rocky area with little land to produce crops on and the north is a huge plot of land with a surplus of Wood. I never said the north has a big enough fleet to match the Iron Born's but they do have a decent sized fleet that is a hole lot better then nothing.

So you are saying that the south could wait till winter ends to invade. By that time the north could have double the navy then even the Iron Born.

[Lord Reaver]

So you are saying that the south could wait till winter ends to invade. By that time the north could have double the navy then even the Iron Born.

Completely unfounded assertion. Care to support it with evidence from the books?

[Sir Lee knot]

Completely unfounded assertion. Care to support it with evidence from the books?

The Iron Islands are said to be a mostly rocky area with little land to produce crops on and the north is a huge plot of land with a surplus of Wood.

[Lord Reaver]

Wood, while important, is not enough to build a fleet. England built a huge fleet of wooden ships while having very little forests left. At the same time, Russia, a nation full of forests, had a tiny fleet by comparion.

[Sir Lee knot]

Wood, while important, is not enough to build a fleet. England built a huge fleet of wooden ships while having very little forests left. At the same time, Russia, a nation full of forests, had a tiny fleet by comparion.

The north also has more manpower and is almost certainly more wealthy then the Iron islands. If the north wants to there is nothing stopping them from building a very large fleet.

[Wmarshal]

One: Robb never was close to capture Tywin, the evidence supporting it is lacking. He ordered Edmure to guard his rear and his forces were scattered across the West pillaging.

Two: Robb couldn't win, unless the Vale gave him men he was always doomed. As a king he was a foe to Stannis, Renly and Tywin.

Three: The North never faced a whole South. Robb just treating just gives the south time to unite to attack.

[Wmarshal]

When is it said the North is wealthier? WH maybe.

[Lord Defiance]

It doesn't matter what could have happened, but Robb lost the minute he married Jeyne. The red wedding wouldn't have happened then and he would have had the Frey support he needed so badly.

Roose also was not exactly the die hard loyal man people thought he was. As soon as he saw a way to better himself, that being killing Robb at the wedding, he took it. Roose is an opportunist, and only loyal to himself.

[Lord Reaver]

The north also has more manpower and is almost certainly more wealthy then the Iron islands. If the north wants to there is nothing stopping them from building a very large fleet.

Maybe, but it is poorer than every other region, all of which would be arrayed against them.

Furthermore, building a fleet takes more than simply resources like wood, it takes docks, shipbuilders with experience, experienced sailors. The Iron islands have all,of these, the north does not. And it's not something you can handwave away with "if the north really really wants it".

[Poppa Bolton]

I guess it sorta is. But if he had trapped Tywin in the west then Stannis would have taken Kingslanding and Tywin would be surrounded by Robb and Edmure's armies and probably would have been captured or his army smashed.

If Stannis won on the Blackwater, then he almost certainly would never have gone North, and Robb would have to deal with a wildling army flooding his home. There are a lot of variables to take into consideration. It wouldn't just be smooth sailing.