Robb Could Have Won

[The Wolves]

So you claim. Care to back it up with anything?

There are plenty of threads discussing Balon's invasion, I see no need to repeat it here.

This is about Robb vs. the IT.

1. You mentioned that the Ironborn took 10yrs to build their fleet of 500-1000 ships, so why can't the North do that?

Again the North is more rich than the Iron Islands, they would have the money to build a fleet that big. Also the North has a city which the Iron Islands doesn't, a really huge city that has craftsmen that would know how to build ships, Manderly also has a Maester that would know that. White Harbor trades with Braavos a place where they can get people to teach how to make ships. Again the Wolfswood is the biggest forest in Westeros there is also forest on the gift, Umber land etc. Manderly can also find people to work there are man in the North who would probably work for silver or food or shelter. Yeah it would take time a couple of years but with the time the Northernmen could match the Ironborn's fleet, hell the Lannisters and Tyrells could match their fleet.

2. What kind of damage could the Ironborn do at Moat Cailin with the full strength of the North behind them and the Cannogmen doing disappearing acts and throwing poisonous arrows at them?

[Poppa Bolton]

Given the circumstances at the time, 1000 mounted knights was enough. But if they got through and took control of the wall, more than 1000 men would be needed, especially if they managed to take some of the less populated castles in the north like Theon did.

[JoeyBanana]

Sure, i don't see why Robb couldn't. Anything is possible, just like his death or Renly's.

But there were a lot of enemies to deal with. The Ironborn, wildlings, Lannister/Tyrell alliance, Roose & Ramsay Bolton, and Stannis. Then there's obviously Aegon and Dany who could view him as a rival for the crown, aswell as the Vale which should still be controlled by Littlefinger after aSoS. Those three factions could all turn on Robb, side with him, or stay neutral. Who knows.

That sounds like a very long and bloody war for the North and the Riverlands. Robb (or whoever whispered in his ears) was already established as a great military commander and in a more familiar (his own lands), less do-or-die position, he could have planned a lot more defensively and carefully/less risky in order to preserve his strength and improve his defenses. No reason to assume that he'd get beaten quickly by anyone under these favorable circumstances unless the plot demands it, of course.

[Poppa Bolton]

But there were a lot of enemies to deal with.

This is the main point I'm trying to make. Robb has too much to deal with to say that one change in the course of the war would guarantee a win for him. If he gains the upper hand on one enemy, that could just give another enemy more room to breathe. His only ally was the Riverlands, and they're practically impossible to defend.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

This is the main point I'm trying to make. Robb has too much to deal with to say that one change in the course of the war would guarantee a win for him. If he gains the upper hand on one enemy, that could just give another enemy more room to breathe. His only ally was the Riverlands, and they're practically impossible to defend.

That's true for every other side as well.

[The Fallen]

Robb was winning. He was achieving all his objectives. His fight was against the Lannisters. And he had Tywin marching to his beat.

If Edmure allows Tywin to go west, the Lannisters lose King's Landing (I don't believe the Tyrells would attack Stannis without Tywin). Robb then has Roose, who's positioned near the Trident, protect Robb from an attack from Stannis. Then Edmure can bring the rest of the riverlords west and combined with Robb's forces they would be able to either defeat Tywin or make him sue for peace. That means the lion is declawed and his territory is decreased, which along with hostages, makes him impotent.

Norhtern and Riverlands independence is achieved. Now, can they remain independent? Well, unless Stannis can get the Vale (doubtful), Dorne (improbable) and The Reach (near impossible) to join him in retaking the Riverlands and the North, I don't see how Stannis alone can bring Robb to heel and reunite the Seven Kingdoms.

And I also don't think that the Riverlands are indefensible. The issue with the Riverlands is that since they're centrally located almost every war touches their region. But they have natural defenses, as we saw with Edmure, and as long as all their neighbor's aren't attacking at once they should be fine. I don't see the Riverlands defending against Stannis coming from the east as a problem, especially since Tywin has been neutralized. The Reach has enemies on every side also and I don't see that mentioned as a negative. The Stormlands have Dorne and the Reach and the Riverlands bordering them. The Westerlands have The Reach, Riverlands and the Iron Isles as neighbors. It isn't only the Riverlands.

Now, in the event that Robb defeats Tywin, making the Weterlands neutral, and Stannis can get the rest of the kingdoms united behind him, could he realistically achieve reunification through force? The numbers, troopwise, are there for him to raise a massive host. Heck, if he got 25% of the troops from the remaining regions; Dorne, 7,500; The Reach, 20,000; The Vale, 10,000; all of the Stormlands, 25,00; for a total of 62,500 men, could he realistically march a host that size all the way to the North? What kind of supply lines would be needed for that endeavor?

[Bright Blue Eyes]

Now, in the event that Robb defeats Tywin, making the Weterlands neutral, and Stannis can get the rest of the kingdoms united behind him, could he realistically achieve reunification through force? The numbers, troopwise, are there for him to raise a massive host. Heck, if he got 25% of the troops from the remaining regions; Dorne, 7,500; The Reach, 20,000; The Vale, 10,000; all of the Stormlands, 25,00; for a total of 62,500 men, could he realistically march a host that size all the way to the North? What kind of supply lines would be needed for that endeavor?

Of course not. About 20,000 is the maximum number for a prolongued time when expecting enemy action nearby.

[The Dragon King]

Robb could have won if he forged an alliance with the Tyrells and went for the IT.

[Lord Reaver]

Of course not. About 20,000 is the maximum number for a prolongued time when expecting enemy action nearby.

Which is why you have the maxim "march divided, fight united", arguably attributed to Alexander the Great.

[The Fallen]

Of course it relates to the question, when you use the fact they pulled out as "proof" the North would have managed to, had Balon not died. You're disappointing me by stooping to the level of your average north-fanatic instead of presenting actual arguments.

Westeros has coasts as well, there is nothing to say they cant do the same. Oh and no, the crusaders did not follow the coast all the way. The route from Italy crossed the mediterranean, not huggong the coast. The Bite isn't bigger than that.

Finally, you conveniently forget that Robert had both the Royal AND Redwyne fleets, so you can add the reach to that list.

The problem with the ironborn holding Moat Cailin is that they thought the only way for Robb to come back North was through the Neck. But Robb was sending Roose through the Neck while he traveled through the bogs and attacked Moat Cailin from the North. So the 10,000 ironborn would have been preparing to fight Roose coming up the causeway, with the crannogmen shooting poison arrows at them from the bogs and then Robb coming with his horse from the North, which is Moat Cailin's vulnerable spot. The best thing that happened to the ironborn was Balon Greyjoy falling off that stupid bridge.

[Lord Reaver]

There are plenty of threads discussing Balon's invasion, I see no need to repeat it here.

This is about Robb vs. the IT.

[The Fallen]

You keep mentioning the 10,000 ironborn at Moat Cailin. I'm simply pointing out what would've likely happened to them.

[Irish]

I've seen several people say that Robb's war was a lost cause and he was bound to die. I can't get behind this. At one point he almost captured Tywin which would have effectively ended the war.

Let's say Roose was never working against Robb so RW doesn't happen. I've heard it said that the Lannister-Tyrell alliance was far to powerful to oppose. But that's not what we see in the Books. They can hardly

co-ordinate an effective effort, they spread their armies far and thin, and for the most part their commanders aren't anything special. Robb would have picked them apart piece by piece until they give up.

You have to remember that Robb is on the defensive. For autonomy all he has to do is bloody the Lannisters and Tyrells until they sue for peace. While the opposing force would have had to conquer the Riverlands and the North which is significantly harder then Robb's task.

Robb didn't actually need to march back to the North. If I remember, GRRM said that the North could've fielded up to 40k troops, but it would've taken a lot longer and would've put a strain on supply lines. So the North could've taken on the Greyjoys (especially after the Greyjoy Succession Crisis).

Robb, post Blackwater Bay, was in a relatively strong position. He had 14000 troops under Roose Bolton at Harrenhal, he had ~6000 cavalry after the Battle of Oxcross in the Westerlands, and the Riverlanders had ~11000 troops under Edmure holding Riverrun. The Tyrell-Lannister host was incredibly large, which would mean slower movement than a smaller force.

Robb should have:

1. Ordered Manderly or Glover (or even the Crannogmen) to raise hosts and cleanse the North of the Ironborn then strengthen defences at Moat Cailin.

2. Move Roose Bolton from Harrenhal (leave maybe 1000 men at Harrenhal) further north-west, so that if the Tyrells-Lannister's split their forces, they would still have to fight across a river) [Edmure defeated Tywin's attempted crossings despite being outnumbered 2-1]. That would be a massive drain on morale and manpower from the Great Western Alliance.

3. Raised Riverlander levies (the Riverlands is the second most populous of the Seven Kingdoms, so how they could not raise more troops is beyond me) at Riverrun and moved them into the Westerlands to seize the Golden Tooth, Sarsfield and Deep Den (essentially turning the terrain against Tywin's advances while constricting the gold flow from the West).

4. STORMED LANNISPORT! The Lannisters were battered, and Lannisport was their ancestral home as well as their main financial centre. Taking it could have given him a fleet, gold and silver, food, and a base to cut off supplies from entering the Rock.

5. Wait until the Reachman Fleet left Blackwater Bay and then used Manderlys' fleet (which nobody knows about) to slip down the Blackwater and smash King's Landing. Taking the King and the Capital would have forced Tywin into negotiating or at least caused the Tyrell-forces to split up again to attempt to retake the city and save Margaery.

Alternatively, he could have put more pressure on the Vale to enter the war on his side (House Royce was already calling for them to enter the war on Stark-side) which could have strengthened his supply lines, resulted in greater naval strength, allowed him to shift the Northern foot westwards from Harrenhal and provided him with 20k-30k levies.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

Which is why you have the maxim "march divided, fight united", arguably attributed to Alexander the Great.

Spot on. But you need appropriate roads for that.

[Lord Reaver]

Spot on. But you need appropriate roads for that.

One assumes Westeros has at least as good roads as the middle east did at the time of Alexander. At Guagamela, he had about 50k soldiers.

[The Fallen]

"March divided, fight united."

But wouldn't an invasion of the North force these armies or army to bring supplies thousands of miles through hostile territory?

Let's say Stannis rallied the remaining regions, it would mean that The Reach and Dorne would be bringing supplies from the southernmost regions of Westeros. Unless The Vale is going to provide all of the provisions for the rest of the forces. And if they don't subdue the Riverlands first, they would be harassed all the way from the Triedent to the Neck.

And even if they make it to the North, the North just needs to employ a similar strategy to Russia; trade land for time. And this invasion would be happening at the beginning of Winter.

[Wmarshal]

Not really, Edward the first used axes to cut the trees in Wales to remove the threat of Guerilla warfare. Same tactic can be used in the North.

The riverlands have no real forces, abandoned they can only defend.

Or they can wait. The IT only needs to take the coastle castles and have a landing point for men and weapons.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

One assumes Westeros has at least as good roads as the middle east did at the time of Alexander. At Guagamela, he had about 50k soldiers.

Mediterranean. And not exactly the Neck either.

But wouldn't an invasion of the North force these armies or army to bring supplies thousands of miles through hostile territory?

Doesn't matter anyway, More than 3-5 days is not viable.

A little oxcart math:

In a roman angaria (four oxen), no more 1500 roman pounds should be transported. That would be about 250 actual pounds per oxen/1,000 per oxcart), and they make about twelve miles per day. On roman roads, not cross-country.

A human needs about four pounds of food per day. A destrier about twelve pounds on top of grazing. 20,000 men and 12,000 horses would need 224,000 pounds per day, or about 224 oxcarts.

Let's use KL as base and send the army to Winterfell. That's about 1,900 miles along the Kingsroad. 158 days of oxcart travel. That's already 35,400 oxcarts on the roads, not including those returning. Add those and you have ~70,000 oxcarts. No enemy contact, no oxcarts breaking down, and neither oxen nor cart drivers are fed at all...

[Bright Blue Eyes]

Not really, Edward the first used axes to cut the trees in Wales to remove the threat of Guerilla warfare. Same tactic can be used in the North.

The riverlands have no real forces, abandoned they can only defend.

Or they can wait. The IT only needs to take the coastle castles and have a landing point for men and weapons.

Wales: about 21,000 square km.

North: about 10,000,000 square km.

A very slight difference in size...

[Wmarshal]

Tactic still works as moving men around.