The Relationship between Illyrio and House Redwyne

[Lord Varys]

I've also thought that the Redwynes may have backed the Blackfyres at least once in their rebellions when I realized that Illyrio had a stock of wine from Paxter's ancestors, but from what we/I know by now, the time line simply doesn't add up. The Redwynes clearly did not back Daemon III during the Fourth Rebellion in 236, and it would make little sense to assume that they backed the Band of Nine during the War of the Ninepenny Kings since the Golden Company never even made it to Westeros in that war.

This would only leave the Third Rebellion during the reign of either Aerys I or Maekar, and in that case it would not be all that likely that the broken betrothal to Olenna Redwyne could figure in any of that. There were clearly some immediate repercussions when Egg's children broke their betrothals, and I very much doubt that this was still an issue during the Rebellion (else the Tyrells/Redwynes would have backed Robert, not supported the Targaryens).

Thus: Sometimes a wine cask is just a wine cask.

[Mithras]

“Now, poison…the tears of Lys, let us say. Khal Drogo need never know it was not a natural death.”

“Khal Drogo and I will share it together. Aggo, take this back to my litter, if you’d be so kind.” The wineseller beamed as the Dothraki hefted the cask.

Dany was supposed to take the cask of poisoned wine to her tent and drink it later. Since Tears of Lys leaves no trace, her death would look like a natural fever. In this case, Khal Drogo would not be enraged (he might die from the same wine a well) and would not start his campaign to take the IT.

This is another piece of evidence that in reality, the GC was never supposed to unite with Drogo’s khalassar. In fact, Dany and Viserys were supposed to die. The game Varys and Illyrio play is multi-dimensional. Varys and Illyrio are more than clever to know what it means to bring a Dothraki khalassar to Westeros.

[Lord Varys]

Paper Weaver,

actually, no. There are very strong hints that Varys/Illyrio had no interest in actually killing Daenerys/Viserys at this point. If they had been killed - and Drogo as well -, the chances that the Dothraki would cause trouble in Westeros would be about zero.

The poisoning plot went exactly as planned: Varys sent somebody to Vaes Dothrak who would most likely botch the thing anyway (i.e. not an actual assassin), and he had already previously instructed Ser Jorah to watch Daenerys, not harm her. Illyrio, in turn, informed Jorah of the poisoning plot, which made it all but impossible for the plot to work.

The wine seller got a cask containing poisoned wine from Varys' people, and he most likely was also instructed how to administer it to the intended victim (i.e. offering it to Daenerys/Viserys as a gift). This would have left Ser Jorah more than enough time to thwart the plot.

The cask of wine did obviously not contain the Tears of Lys or some other subtle poison - else the wine seller could have offered Dany a drink at his store. The Tears of Lys don't kill at once, and it is very difficult to connect the symptom to a poison, which would be necessary in any case, since the plan was always to convince Drogo to invade Westeros by targeting his wife/brother-in-law.

Varys/Illyrio really intended for Drogo to invade Westeros. That much is clear. His death would not have been in their plans at all, nor could they risk to kill Dany/Viserys prior to Drogo's invasion as the loss of the Targaryens would have greatly diminished the possibility that Drogo would invade Westeros at all.

[Skinchanging Sweetrobin]

Paper Weaver,

actually, no. There are very strong hints that Varys/Illyrio had no interest in actually killing Daenerys/Viserys at this point. If they had been killed - and Drogo as well -, the chances that the Dothraki would cause trouble in Westeros would be about zero.

The poisoning plot went exactly as planned: Varys sent somebody to Vaes Dothrak who would most likely botch the thing anyway (i.e. not an actual assassin), and he had already previously instructed Ser Jorah to watch Daenerys, not harm her. Illyrio, in turn, informed Jorah of the poisoning plot, which made it all but impossible for the plot to work.

The wine seller got a cask containing poisoned wine from Varys' people, and he most likely was also instructed how to administer it to the intended victim (i.e. offering it to Daenerys/Viserys as a gift). This would have left Ser Jorah more than enough time to thwart the plot.

The cask of wine did obviously not contain the Tears of Lys or some other subtle poison - else the wine seller could have offered Dany a drink at his store. The Tears of Lys don't kill at once, and it is very difficult to connect the symptom to a poison, which would be necessary in any case, since the plan was always to convince Drogo to invade Westeros by targeting his wife/brother-in-law.

Varys/Illyrio really intended for Drogo to invade Westeros. That much is clear. His death would not have been in their plans at all, nor could they risk to kill Dany/Viserys prior to Drogo's invasion as the loss of the Targaryens would have greatly diminished the possibility that Drogo would invade Westeros at all.

I disagee that the plan was always to invade Westeros.

It's pretty clear that the original plan was to bring Dany to Asshai. Jorah tries to convince Dany to go that way maybe six times. And Drogo had ideas of heading east. It's only after Varys complains to Illyrio that he's stressed out that the plan changes. The poison-and-rescue plot actually works and, beyond everyone's expectations, the Dothraki want to head west.

[Mithras]

Lord Varys, the purpose was to create chaos and instability in Westeros. The Dothraki Invasion was not the only option. Team fAegon just adapted to the game of LF by which he escalated the civil war prematurely. Perhaps Varys planned that Robert would be fool enough to give the invading Dothraki an open battle and get himself killed with significant losses. After that, the wars for succession of Robert would start and Westeros would waste their troops and resources as in the case of Wot5K. Then fAegon would come.

The plans of Team fAegon are subject to change. They have contingencies. However, their endgame remains constant.

[Lost Melnibonean]

Why on earth would an invading usurper expecting to lead the Golden Company, Dorne, and friends in the Reach (40-50k?) want to fight another 40k Dothraki? The idea that Varys and Illyrio would have sent the Dothraki ahead to cause trouble for Aegon to mop up seems pretty counterproductive.

[Amoracchius]

(2) Or Doran/Mellario might be involved like JonCon, believing that the boy is real. In that case, their involvement should be a secret because JonCon does not know that Lemore is Mellario and Doran is already in the team. In this case, Illyrio and Varys have to appear as Targaryen loyalists and seem to be helping the exile Targaryens just like they are preparing fAegon. So, the plots to kill the exile Targaryens should be hidden from Doran/Mellario just like JonCon has no idea about the real arrangements of Illyrio.

Septa Lemore = Mellario isn't a theory I've heard before. I'm curious, what's your evidence? I don't have my books with me and I could be mistaken, but wasn't Lemore described as Westerosi?

[A Tasty Pidgeon Pie]

Random question since we're on the topic.

Is it Red-Win or Red-Wine?

[Skinchanging Sweetrobin]

Random question since we're on the topic.

Is it Red-Win or Red-Wine?

I say Red-Wine, but who knows. Between the show, Roy Detrice, real world names and real world objects, I'm pretty confused on how to say names. I'm not a pronunciation snob, so I don't worry about it.

[Rhaenys' kitten]

Rolly Duckfield = Denys Redwyne (Leyton Hightower's unseen grandson)

:lol:

Possibly, Duck does have orange hair, a Redwyne trait.

Illyrio has an interesting household member, with a very Redwyne look:

...courtyard where a woman was washing clothes at a well. She looked to be his own age, with dull red hair and a broad face dotted by freckles.

Also, Illyrio dresses Daenerys in a "deep plum silk" when she meets Drogo in GoT, though Viserys wears a new black tunic with a scarlet dragon.

The hangings on the palanquin Illyrio and Tyrion ride to the Rhoyne, are also purple.

Tyrion is smuggled onto and off his ship in wine casks, which would mainly make sense if the ship was carrying wine.

Horror and Slobber tried to escape KL in a Pentoshi galley, and in the same book (aCoK) Sallador Saan takes one of Illyrio's ships in Blackwater Bay.

[Mithras]

Possibly, Duck does have orange hair, a Redwyne trait.

Illyrio has an interesting household member, with a very Redwyne look:

Also, Illyrio dresses Daenerys in a "deep plum silk" when she meets Drogo in GoT, though Viserys wears a new black tunic with a scarlet dragon.

The hangings on the palanquin Illyrio and Tyrion ride to the Rhoyne, are also purple.

Tyrion is smuggled onto and off his ship in wine casks, which would mainly make sense if the ship was carrying wine.

Horror and Slobber tried to escape KL in a Pentoshi galley, and in the same book (aCoK) Sallador Saan takes one of Illyrio's ships in Blackwater Bay.

Nice connections.

Illyrio might be the chief distributor of Redwyne wines in Essos and his good relationship with the Redwynes might help him swaying them to fAegon. Perhaps he has more of such partnerships in Westeros. Hightowers also seem to trade with Essos a lot.

[Rhaenys' kitten]

Just had a thought, maybe Illyrio/Varys framed the wineseller in Vaes Dothrak because he was competition or had cheated the Redwynes.

[not in the face]

Going to be hard to turn cloak when Euron is whipping their asses and the crown still holds Redwyne's twins hostage.

[walkingWITHcersei]

Wow, so twice Tyrell bannermen want to make peace with the Ironborn.

I wonder why the attack on the Shield Islands and Oldtown. Did Euron and Balon have different agendas?

Of course they had different agendas if they hadn't Balon would still be alive.

[Mithras]

Going to be hard to turn cloak when Euron is whipping their asses and the crown still holds Redwyne's twins hostage.

Redwyne twins are returned to Paxter IIRC. That was part of the deal with the Tyrells before the Blackwater. And turning to fAegon is easier if Euron is shipping their asses and neither the Lannisters nor the Tyrells are able to help them.

[walkingWITHcersei]

I think all of the Tyrell bannermen have to be considered serious candidates to support fAegon. The Reach is full of families that were passed over for the Gardeners Stewards. The Florents were the most vocally miffed but one can imagine the rest hold a similar grudge on some level, and none of these families have any reason to love the Lannister/Baratheon cadre currently in charge. Recall the looks on their faces when the Small Council discussion on the events of the sack of KL. These families were Targ loyalists to the bone and they'll jump at the chance to back any Targ, real or otherwise, that has the strength to reclaim the IT.

[Lost Melnibonean]

Olenna Redwyne was almost wed to a member of House Targaryen but she supposedly did everything she could to prevent that. She was born around the same time with the infant son of Aerion, whose claim was passed over by the Great Council of 233.

From WOIAF we know that

the betrothed was Aegon's youngest son who turnwd out to be gay

but in any event House Redwyne had cause to be upset with Aegon V. These dudes took these marriage contracts pretty seriously.

In Illyrios manse, Tyrion found a cask of strongwine marked as the private stock of Lord Runceford Redwyne, the grandfather of the present Lord of the Arbor. Illyrio had a chest of clothes for a small boy. But the clothes had been stored for some time since they were musty and moths had been at them. Tyrion wore the colors of House Redwyne when he had dinner the first time with Illyiro.

Is it possible Serra was a daughter of House Redwyne???

[Veltigar]

I doubt it. I think it's more likely that Runceford (who was Olenna's father right?) entertained the idea of supporting the Blackfyres. The wine was probably a gift of friendship to establish a relationship. The next part will contain spoilers from TWOIAF, so I'll put them behind spoilertags

Maelys the Monstrous killed Daemon Blackfyre to assume the mantel of leadership over the GC. Maelys strikes me as the Maegor of House Blackfyre. It wouldn't surprise me if Lord Runceford sought out Daemon Blackfyre to wed his daughter, entered into negotiations, exchanged gifts (the wine) and then... Maelys murdered him and Lord Runceford didn't want to deal with an obvious monster like Maelys

[Lost Melnibonean]

I doubt it. I think it's more likely that Runceford (who was Olenna's father right?) entertained the idea of supporting the Blackfyres. The wine was probably a gift of friendship to establish a relationship. The next part will contain spoilers from TWOIAF, so I'll put them behind spoilertags

Maelys the Monstrous killed Daemon Blackfyre to assume the mantel of leader over the GC. Maelys strikes me as the Maegor of House Blackfyre. It wouldn't surprise me if Lord Runceford sought out Daemon Blackfyre to wed his daughter, entered into negotiations, exchanged gifts (the wine) and then... Maelys murdered him and Lord Runceford didn't want to deal with an obvious monster like Maelys

I just read that this morning. He reminded me of Gregor.

As to whether Serra was a daughter of House Redwyne, upon my latest reread, those two hints at House Redwyne really stood out. Perhaps I'm off, but the George was definitely hinting at some realtionship between Illyrio and Aegon and House Redwyne.

[Sanset]

Very interesting topic!
I was wondering while I was reading the comments what happened in the third Blackfyre rebellion? It is a curious detail that Illyrio's name looks like three or third, "III" and "yrio" which sounds Braavosi like Syrio (Forel) and so.

That could mean Illryio could be against all dragons no matter red or black. After various comments in this thread, it seems that Olenna lied about the story of her not marrying a Targaryen, but the truth in that story is that for whatever reason she hates Targaryens. There is no reason for her to love the Blackfyres either and she's got every reason to go for the Iron Throne for herself through some puppet from her Houses.

It seems she is a little woman trying to cast a large shadow. If Olenna is plotting with Illyrio against the dragons because both hate them this could be a very interesting turn in the whole story. Plus, Tyrells hate Martells, so Illyrio and Olenna would be scheming against Dorne too. A lot of double L, double-dealing and double-crossings, all the kind of things that suit Olenna's and Illyrio's personalities. It would be so funny if Varys is being deceived by Illyrio if he's playing with Doran. XD

He might be right «This is no longer a game for two players» it is a game for "Ill" players. I would guess (Redwynes+Tyrells) + Hightowers + Braavos

Edited to correct spelling, I messed up some names.