The Relationship between Illyrio and House Redwyne

[Veltigar]

I just read that this morning. He reminded me of Gregor.

As to whether Serra was a daughter of House Redwyne, upon my latest reread, those two hints at House Redwyne really stood out. Perhaps I'm off, but the George was definitely hinting at some realtionship between Illyrio and Aegon and House Redwyne.

It's highly likely that the Redwynes will turn to Faegon's side. There is a good chance of Redwyne being one of the friends of the GC in the Reach (especially if Illyrio is a close relative of

the Daemon Blackfyre who was murdered by Maelys

)

[Lost Melnibonean]

It's highly likely that the Redwynes will turn to Faegon's side. There is a good chance of Redwyne being one of the friends of the GC in the Reach (especially if Illyrio is a close relative of

the Daemon Blackfyre who was murdered by Maelys

)

I agree but it seems to the nods to House Redwyne in that forst Tyrion chapter were just so strong, and isolated--no other such friends were hinted at, there as to be a special relationship.

[Mithras]

Olenna Redwyne was almost wed to a member of House Targaryen but she supposedly did everything she could to prevent that. She was born around the same time with the infant son of Aerion, whose claim was passed over by the Great Council of 233.

From TWOIAF, now we know that

the Targaryen prince of Olenna was Daeron, a son of Egg. He was the one who dumped Olenna because he was gay.

[Mithras]

I've also thought that the Redwynes may have backed the Blackfyres at least once in their rebellions when I realized that Illyrio had a stock of wine from Paxter's ancestors, but from what we/I know by now, the time line simply doesn't add up. The Redwynes clearly did not back Daemon III during the Fourth Rebellion in 236, and it would make little sense to assume that they backed the Band of Nine during the War of the Ninepenny Kings since the Golden Company never even made it to Westeros in that war.

This would only leave the Third Rebellion during the reign of either Aerys I or Maekar, and in that case it would not be all that likely that the broken betrothal to Olenna Redwyne could figure in any of that. There were clearly some immediate repercussions when Egg's children broke their betrothals, and I very much doubt that this was still an issue during the Rebellion (else the Tyrells/Redwynes would have backed Robert, not supported the Targaryens).

Thus: Sometimes a wine cask is just a wine cask.

Now we know that during the Wot9PK, Quellon and his ships were instrumental in the victory. No mention of vainglorious Redwyne Fleet.

Did anyone see the Redwyne Fleet doing something useful throughout the saga?

[Lord Varys]

Nothing suggests that the Redwynes fought on the side of the Ninepenny Kings throughout the war. I assume that both the Redwynes and the Greyjoys fought on the Targaryen side in that war.

Aegon V had over a decade to placate the Redwynes following the end of Olenna's betrothal to Prince Daeron, and as of yet we simply have no evidence that the Redwynes ever openly backed a Blackfyre.

Not to mention that Illyrio having a cask of Runceford's wine does not really suggest that Illyrio's family had any Redwyne contact decades ago - unless we go with the invented 'Illyrio was always rich' theory, completely disregarding what we actually know about Illyrio and Varys.

Thus my personal guess is that Illyrio's wealth, which he acquired later in life, eventually enabled him to buy precious old wines from all over the world, including the Arbor.

All we could deduce from that, I think, is that Illyrio had an interest in Westeros. But it's not a very good hint, as the Arbor wine is really good stuff, and thus cherished by many wealthy people all over the known world.

[In A Coat of Gold]

Mace Tyrell is half Redwyne and Paxter Redwyne is his cousin. His mother is Paxter's blood aunt. Paxter's wife is a Tyrell. Their houses are too intertwined with family.

[Antler's Fury]

With so many references to House Redwyne during Tyrion’s chapter with Illyrio, are we supposed to assume that a secret relationship exists between them or is it a foreshadowing for future association of the Redwynes and fAegon?

Why shouldn't we just take this to mean that, like many rich people in the books, Illyrio enjoys Redwyne wine? It's not like the Redwynes went out of their way to make dark purple wine whose color resembled the eyes of Targaryens. Wine being purple isn't exactly news. I really don't see why we should assume that there is some kind of connection between the Targaryens and the Redwynes merely because the color of the latter's wine matches the former's eye color, especially seeing as Mace Tyrell is half Redwyne, and the head of House Redwyne, Paxter, is married to Mace's sister and is Master of Ships. They have no reason to betray the Tyrells and thereby give up the influence and power they enjoy under Tyrell rule. Mace is now Hand and likely to become Regent; aside from Highgarden itself, there is literally nothing that Paxter could want that Mace could not give him more easily than Aegon could.

The wine was said to be from the private stock of Lord Runceford Redwyne. In the text, stock is sometimes used to represent genetic inheritance, including the old Valyrian stock.

...but not in this case. In this case, the word is clearly being used to indicate merchandise, not ancestry. You can't just equate the two like that when they clearly mean different things.

While the spoils of war were being shared after the victory at Blackwater, Paxter Redwyne required a relatively small reward. It is true that he did not participate in the Battle of Blackwater and did not earn much but still, he served them Arbor Gold after getting the remission of taxes. It is known that Arbor Gold is best suited to wash lies down.

“We shall serve him lies and Arbor gold, and he’ll drink them down and ask for more, I promise you.”

So, what might Redwyne be hiding?

If he was hiding a relationship with Aegon, don't you think that Jon Connington would have mentioned it at or at least thought of it at some point? Having Westeros' biggest navy secretly on their side would almost certainly have changed Connington's attack plan; at the very least, they would not have to use Volantene ships to get to Westeros.

Aerion Targaryen. Purple eyes. Likened to grapes.

Well of course they were. Like grapes, Aerion's eyes are purple and were easy for Dunk to have crushed at that moment. How exactly does this point to a relationship between the Redwynes and a potentially fraudulent Targaryen a century later?

Paxter Redwyne often seems weirdly in favour of the Greyjoy alliance during his Small Council scenes. Just something to throw in...

That was before the Ironborn attacked his homeland. I'm pretty sure that would change his opinion on any sort of alliance with the Ironborn, much like the Ironborn invasion of the North changed Robb's mind regarding the issue.

Varys "catches" the Redwynes twins trying to escape KL in ACOK. After that, the Redwynes look loyal to the crown, but very well could be enemies.

They were trying to escape and join up with Renly along with the rest of the Reach. Now, however, the Tyrells have joined up with the Lannisters and we have no reason to believe that the Redwynes are dissatisfied with the situation. Indeed, Paxter himself went from being a mere adviser on the Small Council to being Master of Ships; the decline of House Lannister only strengthens House Tyrell and thus their Redwyne bannermen. The Redwynes have no need to upset the applecart by dumping a weakening Lannister partner that they can more easily control for a Targaryen partner whose strength is growing.

Does all Arbor wine carry the Redwyne sigil or was this a special cask?

Redwyne wine is famous even in Essos. Therefore, it stands to reason that they'd mark their wine with their sigil to better market the Redwyne brand of wine.

Did they choose Arbor wine because Dany would find it irresistable to try a "friendly" wine.

If they were so pro-Targ, why would they want to poison Dany?

Since then I suppose the Redwynes have been sympathetic to the Blackfyre cause. For now, they are still banking on the Tyrell horse for Olenna's sake, but when they get their asses handed to them by Euron, they'll switch side to Faegon I think.

Why? What can Aegon do for them with his measly 10,000 men that Mace can't with his tens of thousands of men? And is it really smart to launch your own rebellion against the Iron Throne when another rebel is pillaging your lands, and you are looking to the Iron Throne for protection?

[Mithras]

“A great lord,” Sansa answered politely.

“A great oaf,” said the Queen of Thorns. “His father was an oaf as well. My husband, the late Lord Luthor. Oh, I loved him well enough, don’t mistake me. A kind man, and not unskilled in the bedchamber, but an appalling oaf all the same. He managed to ride off a cliff whilst hawking. They say he was looking up at the sky and paying no mind to where his horse was taking him.

“And now my oaf son is doing the same, only he’s riding a lion instead of a palfrey. It is easy to mount a lion and not so easy to get off, I warned him, but he only chuckles. Should you ever have a son, Sansa, beat him frequently so he learns to mind you. I only had the one boy and I hardly beat him at all, so now he pays more heed to Butterbumps than he does to me. A lion is not a lap cat, I told him, and he gives me a ‘tut-tut-Mother.’ There is entirely too much tut-tutting in this realm, if you ask me. All these kings would do a deal better if they would put down their swords and listen to their mothers.”

Seems like Olenna was always thinking of the possibility of dismounting the lions and this is a Redwyne thing, not a Tyrell thing.

[Lost Melnibonean]

A great lord, Sansa answered politely.

A great oaf, said the Queen of Thorns. His father was an oaf as well. My husband, the late Lord Luthor. Oh, I loved him well enough, dont mistake me. A kind man, and not unskilled in the bedchamber, but an appalling oaf all the same. He managed to ride off a cliff whilst hawking. They say he was looking up at the sky and paying no mind to where his horse was taking him.

And now my oaf son is doing the same, only hes riding a lion instead of a palfrey. It is easy to mount a lion and not so easy to get off, I warned him, but he only chuckles. Should you ever have a son, Sansa, beat him frequently so he learns to mind you. I only had the one boy and I hardly beat him at all, so now he pays more heed to Butterbumps than he does to me. A lion is not a lap cat, I told him, and he gives me a tut-tut-Mother. There is entirely too much tut-tutting in this realm, if you ask me. All these kings would do a deal better if they would put down their swords and listen to their mothers.

Seems like Olenna was always thinking of the possibility of dismounting the lions and this is a Redwyne thing, not a Tyrell thing.

Nice.

[Veltigar]

Aegon V had over a decade to placate the Redwynes following the end of Olenna's betrothal to Prince Daeron, and as of yet we simply have no evidence that the Redwynes ever openly backed a Blackfyre.

I think you're right. They never openly backed a Blackfyre, but I think they pulled a Hightower and decided to stay neutral during tWot9PK.

Why? What can Aegon do for them with his measly 10,000 men that Mace can't with his tens of thousands of men? And is it really smart to launch your own rebellion against the Iron Throne when another rebel is pillaging your lands, and you are looking to the Iron Throne for protection?

By then Faegon will have many more men. When he weds Arianne, he'll get the Dornish on his side. Hidden Targaryen loyalists (like for instance Matthis Rowan if he survives the taking of SE) will back him and the remaining supporters of the Black Dragon (think Randyll Tarly) will back him to. When the Tyrells suffer a massive blow (like the loss of Oldtown and/or the defeat of Garlan's forces), their prestige will be shattered (like the Starks after loosing WF). Add to that that Mace might go postal after Margaery's trial (alienating the FM and the pious lords throughout the realm) and there is a perfect opportunity for a young valiant King to fill the void. Especially since said King has already proven his military prowess with the fast conquest of the Stormlands and SE.

[Antler's Fury]

By then Faegon will have many more men. When he weds Arianne, he'll get the Dornish on his side. Hidden Targaryen loyalists (like for instance Matthis Rowan if he survives the taking of SE) will back him

It's one thing for Rowan to back him if he bends the knee after being defeated, like the Stormlords did after Blackwater. But it doesn't make any sense for the lords of the Reach, who are already facing a fight with the Ironborn, to deliberately open up a second front against the Tyrells, who are helping them in this fight.

and the remaining supporters of the Black Dragon (think Randyll Tarly) will back him to.

When did House Tarly ever support the Blackfyres?

When the Tyrells suffer a massive blow (like the loss of Oldtown and/or the defeat of Garlan's forces),

If the Tyrells lose to the Ironborn, then that will only give the Reach lords more of a reason to focus on fighting the Ironborn along with the Tyrells, not betray the Tyrells for Aegon and thus have to fight both the Tyrells and the Ironborn. The Reach's primary concern right now is the Ironborn; the Tyrells are helping the lords of the Reach fight against them, while Aegon cannot do that. Therefore, the lords of the Reach have no reason to back him.

their prestige will be shattered (like the Starks after loosing WF).

Even when this happened, the only treachery was from the Boltons and Freys, houses that had a reason to betray the Tyrells. The Tyrells have wisely married into the houses that would have such ambitions, like the Hightowers and Redwynes. Furthermore, this betrayal took the form of a wedding massacre, because Bolton and Frey knew that they would still lose to the Starks in a normal fight. Even if one or two houses in the Reach decide to rebel in response to the fall of Highgarden, Mace can still easily crush them. But again, they won't because the Tyrells are helping them against the Ironborn, and the last thing the Reach lords need is to be fighting the Ironborn and the Tyrells both when they don't have to.

Add to that that Mace might go postal after Margaery's trial (alienating the FM and the pious lords throughout the realm) and there is a perfect opportunity for a young valiant King to fill the void. Especially since said King has already proven his military prowess with the fast conquest of the Stormlands and SE.

Again, there is a huge difference between saying that Mace will leave the Lannisters for Aegon, and that the Reach lords will betray the Tyrells and join Aegon. The former is a bit more plausible, but even then, by allying with the Tyrells after they break with the Faith after Marg loses her trial, Aegon would be alienating the Faith, and he doesn't want to do that.