Without the shadow baby, is Renly king?

[MegaMagick]

Even without shadow babby, Stannis would've found a way to win.

Stannis is Batman.

[Loic]

-assuming Renly would have won the battle (he outnumbered Stannis, but showed us that his tactical acumen was quite off the mark) without sacrificing half of his better troops against a wall of spears

-assuming that he wouldn't have found another clumsy way to destroy his troops ("what about a swimming competition with armors, everyone? First place gets to join the rainbow guard!")

-assuming that Renly would be able to take KL without any trouble - and truth to be told, THIS I find it very likely

This means that he may be able to make peace with Robb and the North. And in that case, if they join forces Tywin is screwed.

Now the question is: how much would Varys and Littlefinger let him stay on the throne?

[Colonel Green]

I do not think so. Not easily. people are too enamoured with the numbers of armies, and not their qualities. Better commanders than Renly have expected to "easily" crush Robb before, and failed in battle.

Renly doesn't have to be a better general than Robb. He has subordinates like Lord Tarly.

Now the question is: how much would Varys and Littlefinger let him stay on the throne?

While Varys might still be in the game by hiding in King's Landing or whatever, Littlefinger would probably be forced to abscond to the Free Cities and enjoy spending all the money he embezzled, as it's unlikely in the extreme he'd be allowed to remain at court, and he has no power base separate from that.

[chriscrowing]

I reckon Renly would have beaten Stannis through sheer weight of numbers and while Stannis is by far the better general, Renly has the best knight (Loras) and an even better general in Randyll Tarly.

Now, we have Kings Landing in a state of famine, and all of Tyrion's cleverness can't feed a city or magic troops out of thin air - also wildfire can't protect as much from a landward assault, can it?

Say Renly manages to secure a pact with Robb to clear out the Lannister pretenders, Robb can be free to pillage the Riverlands and Westerlands and keep Tywin busy while Renly sieges KL until the city rips itself apart.

Of course, Robb could easily make the same mistakes, marry Jeyne Westerling and get himself murderified at the Red Wedding.

With the northern army in the south leaderless and rootless, the Ironborn attacking the coasts and Bolton setting his stamp on the north, Tywin is now free to go after Renly, who might find himself pinned between the walls of KL and Tywin's forces.

So, it all ends up much the same as in the books BUT we don't have Stannis sailing to the relief of the Night's watch and then to help the North against Bolton.

That's not so good...

[Colonel Green]

Say Renly manages to secure a pact with Robb to clear out the Lannister pretenders, Robb can be free to pillage the Riverlands and Westerlands and keep Tywin busy while Renly sieges KL until the city rips itself apart.

Stannis' men were on the verge of breaching the walls of King's Landing within hours of beginning their assault, so there's no way the city would take very long for Renly to conquer with an army at least four times the size of what Stannis had.

[Mithras]

Attacking the KL blindly would be folly because Tywin was at Harrenhal and it is a straight, nice ride from Harrenhal to KL. Tywin could have smashed any besieging army against the Walls. I think Renly would do the same thing he was doing from the beginning. Stall, wait and let the KL starve and rise against the Lannisters. BTW, Cersei had the Redwyne twins, so until they were secured, the Redwyne Fleet could not have been mobilized against KL.

[Colonel Green]

Attacking the KL blindly would be folly because Tywin was at Harrenhal and it is a straight, nice ride from Harrenhal to KL. Tywin could have smashed any besieging army against the Walls.

Er, no he couldn't. Renly's army is at least four times the size of Tywin's. Indeed, he takes 20,000 cavalry to Storm's End, meaning that he has as many horse as Tywin has horse and foot. Tywin's host would be no danger to Renly's unless he somehow replicated the surprise attack the Tyrell/Lannister force pulled off at the Blackwater, and considering that in this scenario Tywin would lack the Tyrell barge fleet that was used to effect that strategy, that's rather unlikely.

Indeed, Tywin coming to fight Renly in the field would likely be Renly's preference, since it would give him a clean shot at the only meaningful Lannister army on highly favourable terms.

[Kick13]

Without shadow baby Renly takes the thrown and Robb makes an agreement of some sort similar to Dorne with Daeron.

[new djinn]

The odd's were in his favor, but nothing was sure. It was in LF and Varys interest to destroy him at some point.

[Universal Sword Donor]

Attacking the KL blindly would be folly because Tywin was at Harrenhal and it is a straight, nice ride from Harrenhal to KL. Tywin could have smashed any besieging army against the Walls. I think Renly would do the same thing he was doing from the beginning. Stall, wait and let the KL starve and rise against the Lannisters. BTW, Cersei had the Redwyne twins, so until they were secured, the Redwyne Fleet could not have been mobilized against KL.

Pretty sure if Renly went down that path, he'd send a force to match Tywin's and block the kingsroad. It's not as if he didn't have the numbers. Hell even a relatively "small" force could stay behind instead. 10-15K men to besiege KL is more than enough, and is probably enough to storm it. Also Renly wouldn't need the Redwyne fleet. He'd have what Stannis brought, possibly losing the sell sails. He doesn't need much. There were what, 12 ships in the harbor? If he gets 30 ships, he can blockade KL and just let them starve, which they were already doing.

[Colonel Green]

The odd's were in his favor, but nothing was sure. It was in LF and Varys interest to destroy him at some point.

Littlefinger really has no capacity to destroy Renly. He's basically a one-man operation whose power (at this point in the story) depends on being tolerated and empowered by the government. Tyrion could have shut him down permanently in ACOK, except that...well, GRRM needed for him not to do that.

I'm not sure what Varys would do here. With his knowledge of the tunnels he definitely has the ability to remain hidden and possibly pull off assassinations, etc., assuming Renly doesn't burn the Red Keep down and start from scratch (which would probably be the smart thing to do, incidentally, given how riddled that place is with secret passages).

Pretty sure if Renly went down that path, he'd send a force to match Tywin's and block the kingsroad. It's not as if he didn't have the numbers. Hell even a relatively "small" force could stay behind instead. 10-15K men to besiege KL is more than enough, and is probably enough to storm it. Also Renly wouldn't need the Redwyne fleet. He'd have what Stannis brought, possibly losing the sell sails. He doesn't need much. There were what, 12 ships in the harbor? If he gets 30 ships, he can blockade KL and just let them starve, which they were already doing.

Renly doesn't need ships, anyway. Those would be useful in a siege, but when Stannis gets to King's Landing, he doesn't lay siege to it, he orders his men to storm the walls, and within hours he's about to win. I don't imagine Renly's approach would be any different, since this is evidently standard strategy in GRRM's world.

[Pod The Impaler]

Attacking the KL blindly would be folly because Tywin was at Harrenhal and it is a straight, nice ride from Harrenhal to KL. Tywin could have smashed any besieging army against the Walls.

Renly's chances of success would be no less than Stannis' chances. Which is to say, he would still have Stannis' ships if Stannis was defeated, but Tyrion would still do his thing with the wildfire & chain. Renly would have the Tyrell foot from Bitterbridge, and those other forces from Storm's End, but Tyrion's mountain clansmen would still seek to blind their scouting in the Kingswood, laying open the chance Tywin would still catch that army unawares at King's Landing.

However, one other factor: If Renly doesn't die, Catelyn doesn't flee with Brienne - and maybe there is more coordination between Renly and Robb after all. Tywin may still seek to prevent the fall of KIng's Landing, but maybe Robb follows them (despite the Ironborn) and catches Tywin unawares. (And then, in gratitude, Renly's forces re-take the North with Robb?)

There are so many scenarios to consider. But I think the basic one is still there - there odds favour Renly, of course, but nothing he would try is guaranteed to actually work.

[new djinn]

Littlefinger really has no capacity to destroy Renly. He's basically a one-man operation whose power (at this point in the story) depends on being tolerated and empowered by the government. Tyrion could have shut him down permanently in ACOK, except that...well, GRRM needed for him not to do that.

Tears of Lys and money for bribes.

[Universal Sword Donor]

Renly doesn't need ships, anyway. Those would be useful in a siege, but when Stannis gets to King's Landing, he doesn't lay siege to it, he orders his men to storm the walls, and within hours he's about to win. I don't imagine Renly's approach would be any different, since this is evidently standard strategy in GRRM's world.

Yeah I thought about that, but I was projecting him to be a bit more cautious. With the North/Riverlands still in the fold and independent, he might need to bring them to heel. The Vale and the IB haven't exactly joined yet either, so he might need to 'compel' them to join.

[Universal Sword Donor]

Renly's chances of success would be no less than Stannis' chances. Which is to say, he would still have Stannis' ships if Stannis was defeated, but Tyrion would still do his thing with the wildfire & chain. Renly would have the Tyrell foot from Bitterbridge, and those other forces from Storm's End, but Tyrion's mountain clansmen would still seek to blind their scouting in the Kingswood, laying open the chance Tywin would still catch that army unawares at King's Landing.

However, one other factor: If Renly doesn't die, Catelyn doesn't flee with Brienne - and maybe there is more coordination between Renly and Robb after all. Tywin may still seek to prevent the fall of KIng's Landing, but maybe Robb follows them (despite the Ironborn) and catches Tywin unawares. (And then, in gratitude, Renly's forces re-take the North with Robb?)

There are so many scenarios to consider. But I think the basic one is still there - there odds favour Renly, of course, but nothing he would try is guaranteed to actually work.

Tywin has ~20K men at Harrenhal. Renly can send an army the size of Stannis' total forces at Blackwater by ship and another 20K on land, and he would still outnumber Tywin's army 3:1.

Leaving Harrenhal to attack Renly would be suicide.

[Colonel Green]

Renly's chances of success would be no less than Stannis' chances. Which is to say, he would still have Stannis' ships if Stannis was defeated, but Tyrion would still do his thing with the wildfire & chain. Renly would have the Tyrell foot from Bitterbridge, and those other forces from Storm's End, but Tyrion's mountain clansmen would still seek to blind their scouting in the Kingswood, laying open the chance Tywin would still catch that army unawares at King's Landing.

Tywin's forces were on the north side of the river, and lacked the ability to cross (the only transport in the area was the Tyrell barge fleet). They wouldn't have been able to take advantage of that gap even if it had come into existence and they were somehow able to get there in time without the barges).

Tears of Lys and money for bribes.

"Bribes" aren't some magic word that can let you do anything you want. Renly's court would be staffed with loyalists (Littlefinger got his initial purchase in KL by pretending to be an Arryn man and thus gaining access to that network, though he quickly built it into his own). And even those people who are "for sale" to some degree, why would they be particularly likely to sell out to him, given that he's not a man whose favour would be important in the new order? If anything, people who were in contact with him could/would likely try to capture him and bring him as a reward.

[Talleyrand]

I don't see an eventuality where Renly has to storm KL or get caught from the rear by Tywin - by the time he deigns to reach the city i'd have a hard time imagine he'd have to do much more than remind the people and goldcloaks how much food he has and that he'd be perfectly happy to share once the lannisters are gone and the garrison would be fighting among itself as the people tried to rush the gates. Even before that, plenty of the goldcloaks and sellswords ran and looted the red keep when Stannis attacked, how many of them aren't going to lose their will when there is 80,000 men camped outside

[The Dragons Hand]

Not if he gets back to the North.

Moat Cailin is Moat Cailin.

It is known

[Minsc]

-assuming Renly would have won the battle (he outnumbered Stannis, but showed us that his tactical acumen was quite off the mark) without sacrificing half of his better troops against a wall of spears

No he didn't, nor does it take much assuming.

-assuming that he wouldn't have found another clumsy way to destroy his troops ("what about a swimming competition with armors, everyone? First place gets to join the rainbow guard!")

What? There is no reason to believe Renly would ever done something like that. Thus, that is as relevant as suggesting Tywin, Robb, or Stannis might get bored and order their men into the sea with their armor on and thus allowing Renly to easily win.

[Loic]

No he didn't, nor does it take much assuming.

Renly decides to charge with a smaller fraction of the army because he couldn't bother to wait for the supplies to follow - it's actually the reason that forces him either to attack Stannis right now, or leave Storm's end under siege unchecked.

Between the two, he chooses to charge at dawn against the rising sun.

He gives his opponent the choice of where to fight, the capital sin in every battle of the series.

He has the perfect man to lead the vanguard in Randyll Tarly, a seasoned veteran and he gives the honor the Loras Tyrell, a fine jouster and good knight, but also inexperienced in warfare.

Renly is experienced in politics and possibly a good warrior, but as a commander he is terrible.

No shadow baby? Most likely he would have won, but the question stays "at what cost".

Before his death his army was the biggest one, but its elite was already slightly damaged because he has to play the olympics in the middle of a war. After a battle where he made his best to choose the worst possible options he had, the numbers would fall.

What? There is no reason to believe Renly would ever done something like that. Thus, that is as relevant as suggesting Tywin, Robb, or Stannis might get bored and order their men into the sea with their armor on and thus allowing Renly to easily win.

My apologies if I don't quote the whole melee where Brienne wins her place in the rainbow guard and Catelyn's judgement on that regard. While it's true that it's not a swimming competition with a 100% death rate, it's also an idiotic way to harm or lose knights right before you need them.