A Simpler Varys Theory

[Lady Blizzardborn]

I'm rather new to all the theories swirling around ASoIaF, and I'm sure I haven't read all of them. Of those I've read, some seem plausible, others unlikely and overly convoluted, even for GRRM.

When it comes to Varys, I've read a few - that he's a Blackfyre, that he's a Faceless Man, that he and Illyrio are using each other but each have their own master plans, etc. I'm skipping over Varys' true identity here, but on the matter of his and Illyrio's plans, some of the theories I've read seem way too complicated. Re-reading the relevant Arya chapter from AGoT, I got a theory of my own going, one I think simpler and more plausible than some of the more complex ones. Key to it is assuming that everything Arya heard them discussing was honest, that Varys was sincere when he claimed he wanted to keep Robert alive, and that he's sincere about supporting Aegon.

(If others have hit on the theory I'm about to detail, please let me know - as I said, I haven't read all the theory threads here.)

Their plan was:

1. Sit and wait until the Dothraki were ready to invade, Aegon was of age, and the Golden Company free.

2. Once the Dothraki were ready, destabilize Westeros somehow.

3. Facilitate the Dothraki invasion and let them go to town on the country.

4. Bring in Aegon with the Golden Company to drive out the Dothraki. Aegon would be welcomed as a hero and crowned, and if Dany and Viserys were still alive, they could be used to build a Trinity of Targaryens as of old, or discarded if they were troublesome.

Under this theory, Illyrio is upset about civil war coming too soon to Westeros because Aegon is too young, the Golden Company has contracts, and the Dothraki aren't ready. Varys is desperate to keep Robert alive because, for all his faults as a king, he held the realm together. Once the Dothraki and Aegon were both ready, Robert could be killed, or the truth about "his" children could come out, or some incident could be arranged, but it's crucial to Varys/Illyrio's plans that this not happen too soon. Civil war too soon could also boost the odds of someone competent taking the Iron Throne and ordering the realm in such a way as to deny any path for a Targaryen restoration.

Also under this theory - all of the movements made by Varys and Illyrio from ACoK on are improvisations, not always smart ones, to try and salvage something of their original plan out of less-than-ideal circumstances.

I've seen the main points proposed before, but I believe you have put it better than others have. And you have certainly done a better job of explaining why they wanted to slow things down in the beginning. It works quite well. (by the way, Varys can still be a Faceless Targ ;) )

Aegon is already of age by the time the books start though, so that part of the waiting is wrong. Westerosi age of majority is 16. Aegon was a year old when his mother was killed, and it's been 15 years since then. By the time we meet him he's about 18.

[Lady Blizzardborn]

No...Remember how none of that happened until Dany got married, and the assassin was specifically for Dany, not for Viserys? Also, remember how Dany says she never saw these hired knives and remember also how it's specifically noted that Robert had wanted to make sure they were killed but that Jon Arryn put a stop to that? They weren't hunted, yeah.... They moved a lot. If they were truly hunted, they would have been dead. Their location was never secret. A flight from Westeros isn't the same as being hunted for over a decade. They lived in exile and during that exile, they were hosted by the elite of the Free Cities.

There probably were one or two attempts on their lives in the past. Viserys was crazy, but there was probably something in the background that fed that and caused it to get worse. Maybe Robert hired someone early on, or some rogue mercenary thought he would get a reward for disposing of Robert's nemesis for him, because that way the King of Westeros would be rid of the competition without getting his hands dirty.

A 13 year old not noticing it doesn't mean it didn't happen.

[Lopsang]

:lol: I know right

You see GRRM himself has never revealed that Aegon is still around. ASOIAF doesn't use an omniscient narrator (in which case, anything the omniscient narrator says is true for that world), instead it uses a PoV structure. We're in the heads of the character and we get their view on stuff. The thing is, the characters aren't always right. And thus the reveal that "Aegon" is still alive isn't necessarily correct.

When you take all the other clues and oddities spread throughout the ASOIAF universe into account it is quite obvious that Faegon is more than likely a fake, who has something to do with the Blackfyres. That much is for sure (or as sure as you can be without an omniscient narrator spelling it out for us).

You take me too literally. I didn't mean that GRRM himself came out and said AEGON IS REAL! AEGON IS REAL! He told us through the text/narrative. The characters aren't always right, sure; but Tyrion puzzled it all out rather brilliant. Tyrion is quite reliable and we know of his intellect and knowledge of history. He validates any loose ends in identifying Aegon; he knows how old he would have been, how he would have gotten to Essos, if it all makes sense, etc. And Tyrion was right about Jon Connington as a positive. Never in Connington's POVs does he say Aegon is ever a fake, etc. It's so unlikely for Tryion to have guessed Connington correctly but not Aegon. What would that add to the story? What is the point of the narrative (not GRRM himself) going backwards like that? If it is true that Aegon is not real, I think Martin would have let us know immediately in Connington's POV. Besides, this "Blackfyres" thing would be such a duex ex machina. What's the point of it? "Oh, here's a secret Targaryen. Nevermind, he's actually a secret Blackfyre. I know I've never really said anything about the Blackfyres, and they have never been important to the story, but they are now. And now they're getting the Iron Throne. Peace out".

[Lopsang]

No...Remember how none of that happened until Dany got married, and the assassin was specifically for Dany, not for Viserys? Also, remember how Dany says she never saw these hired knives and remember also how it's specifically noted that Robert had wanted to make sure they were killed but that Jon Arryn put a stop to that? They weren't hunted, yeah.... They moved a lot. If they were truly hunted, they would have been dead. Their location was never secret. A flight from Westeros isn't the same as being hunted for over a decade. They lived in exile and during that exile, they were hosted by the elite of the Free Cities.

But we see through Ned's POV how Robert fells about them. He complains about how they've always been a thron in his side, etc. It's all indicative of many attempts to rid of them. Robert was fine with the killing of Aegon and Rhaenys, potential heirs, and even married with the Lannisters who did it. What's to say he never tried to kill Viserys or Daenerys?

Their location was not always necessarily a secret, but it was also not necessarily broadcasted. Even if their location was known, it would have been when they were far away in Free City courts and being protected by guardsmen and nobles, etc. Even having one assassination attempt on your life is going to be nerve-wracking, and if that doesn't qualify as being hunted, I don't know what does. We know there was certainly more than just one assassin after them, and at the very least, one was darn close to suceeding. Also, about Dany being poisoned - I'm sure, if he had the chance, the poisoner would have been just as willing/ready to poison Viserys as well; hopefully even both of them. I'm not defending Viserys or saying he wasn't crazy; he was. but they were being hunted. Robert was not about to leave them alone to romp throughout Planetos unmolested.

[Dr. Pepper]

But Robert did leave them alone.

"I should have had them both killed years ago, when it was easy to get at them, but Jon was as bad as you. More fool I, I listened to him.”

[Lord Damian]

Honestly people. it is too convenient for Varys or whomever to predict the Mountain would smash a baby's head to peices against a wall so no one could recognized the 2nd in line for the throne. Really, he is fake and the giveaway is the Golden Company in an of itself. They do not support True line Targaryens, only Blackfyres. But hey, welcome to the forum.

[Fisch]

First, you'd have 2 different factions of Targs actually fighting each other. People in the 7K would see Viserys and Dany as the Targs who unleashed an army of uncivilized barbarians on their country, and there's no PR enough to erase that. Aegon would have to fight the Dothraki, and by extension Viserys (he could marry Dany to unite both factions, but Vis has to go, so there's no Targ Trinity on the table)

However, if Trystan Rivers told it true, then the original plan actually was the Trinity of Targs, since Visery's Dothraki were supposed to join the Golden Company:

"Which plan? ... The fat man’s plan? The one that changes every time the moon turns? First Viserys Targaryen was to join us with fifty thousand Dothraki screamers at his back."

And this opens a whole different can of worms, because where do you factor Aegon in the plan Rivers mentioned? Would he be one of the crazy Targs that showed up with horse-smelling savages, or would he be the savior meant to defeat said savages?

Fair critiques. I have no comeback :D

Perhaps it was thought the Golden Company could keep the Dothraki in line; perhaps the "Dothraki first, Aegon the saviour" plan was meant to be done with the Dothraki "in on it," as it were; perhaps Illyrio and Varys aren't as smart as they (and many others) think.

[Good Guy Garlan]

Fair critiques. I have no comeback :D

Perhaps it was thought the Golden Company could keep the Dothraki in line; perhaps the "Dothraki first, Aegon the saviour" plan was meant to be done with the Dothraki "in on it," as it were; perhaps Illyrio and Varys aren't as smart as they (and many others) think.

My take is that Varys and Illyrio deliberately ruined all those plans, the Dothraki one and the Golden Company one, and wanted Vis and Dany out of the picture so Aegon could be the only option. Granted, I'm biased because I support the Aegon as a Blackfyre theory.

But still, I think the entire Varys plot is convoluted as hell and a total head scratcher, so who knows

[kimim]

My take is that Varys and Illyrio deliberately ruined all those plans, the Dothraki one and the Golden Company one, and wanted Vis and Dany out of the picture so Aegon could be the only option. Granted, I'm biased because I support the Aegon as a Blackfyre theory.

But still, I think the entire Varys plot is convoluted as hell and a total head scratcher, so who knows

If the idea is to have a Blackfyre on the IT, then the most obvious thing to do would be to start off by killing the Targs. How could either Dany or Viserys survive a single night under Illyrio's roof if Aegon's a Blackfyre? I'm not challenging the theory; I'm curious.

Aegon as Aegon makes sense to me. Martin has already had three people, two of them children, survive executions via replacement: Bran, Rickon, Davos. Aegon would be one more.

[Good Guy Garlan]

If the idea is to have a Blackfyre on the IT, then the most obvious thing to do would be to start off by killing the Targs. How could either Dany or Viserys survive a single night under Illyrio's roof if Aegon's a Blackfyre? I'm not challenging the theory; I'm curious.

Aegon as Aegon makes sense to me. Martin has already had three people, two of them children, survive executions via replacement: Bran, Rickon, Davos. Aegon would be one more.

That's admittedly one of the many holes of the theory (and why I said the whole thing is convoluted as hell). My guess is that they really needed Dany and Vis to work the whole Dothraki angle. Best case scenario, the Dothraki invade Westeros and Aegon saves the day. Worst case scenario, Dany and Vis die in the Dothraki Sea and there's no invasion, but at least the Targs are out of the game.

[kimim]

That's admittedly one of the many holes of the theory (and why I said the whole thing is convoluted as hell). My guess is that they really needed Dany and Vis to work the whole Dothraki angle. Best case scenario, the Dothraki invade Westeros and Aegon saves the day. Worst case scenario, Dany and Vis die in the Dothraki Sea and there's no invasion, but at least the Targs are out of the game.

Hmm. They could have been counting on Dany having just enough control to take Drogo across the sea, but not enough control to keep him civilized. It would be similar to what happens when Drogo's people attack MMD's village.

Enter Aegon with his sellswords. He ends the Dothraki menace. Targs are hated by all, as they led these monsters to them. A Blackfyre takes the throne.

Convoluted, but could happen?

Edit: The entire concept of using a Dothraki khalasar as sellswords to take a throne is crazy. Witnesst what goes down in MMD's village.

[Good Guy Garlan]

Hmm. They could have been counting on Dany having just enough control to take Drogo across the sea, but not enough control to keep him civilized. It would be similar to what happens when Drogo's people attack MMD's village.

Enter Aegon with his sellswords. He ends the Dothraki menace. Targs are hated by all, as they led these monsters to them. A Blackfyre takes the throne.

Convoluted, but could happen?

That's pretty much what I'm saying and what think their plan was, except like I said some posts upthread, that had the Dothraki invaded Westeros, the Golden Company would have joined them, as Trystan Rivers said.

Which means Aegon would have no sellswords of his own, which means he would have to gain the support of the Westerosi nobility to fight both the Dothraki and the Golden Company, which makes for an odd turn of events since the potential Blackfyre pretender (Aegon) and the potential Blackfyre supporters (the GC) would end up in opposite sides

So yeah, I think it's going to be convoluted whichever way we slice it. I just think that after 6 (I think?) failed rebellions the Blackfyres would have reached a level of sophistication enough to come up with a better plan than showing up and saying "I'm a Blackfyre! Give me my throne now!"

[Ygrain]

You take me too literally. I didn't mean that GRRM himself came out and said AEGON IS REAL! AEGON IS REAL! He told us through the text/narrative. The characters aren't always right, sure; but Tyrion puzzled it all out rather brilliant. Tyrion is quite reliable and we know of his intellect and knowledge of history. He validates any loose ends in identifying Aegon; he knows how old he would have been, how he would have gotten to Essos, if it all makes sense, etc. And Tyrion was right about Jon Connington as a positive. Never in Connington's POVs does he say Aegon is ever a fake, etc. It's so unlikely for Tryion to have guessed Connington correctly but not Aegon. What would that add to the story? What is the point of the narrative (not GRRM himself) going backwards like that? If it is true that Aegon is not real, I think Martin would have let us know immediately in Connington's POV. Besides, this "Blackfyres" thing would be such a duex ex machina. What's the point of it? "Oh, here's a secret Targaryen. Nevermind, he's actually a secret Blackfyre. I know I've never really said anything about the Blackfyres, and they have never been important to the story, but they are now. And now they're getting the Iron Throne. Peace out".

And Tyrion is always right, right?

Do you honestly think that GRRM would introduce a mystery and then blow it in the next PoV? When did he ver do that?

The point is that up till the Kevan epilogue, we never know anything about Varys' and Illyrio's true motivation, We are only at the very beginning of the reveal, with two more books to go, and it is not true that we know nothing of the Blackfyres.

If the idea is to have a Blackfyre on the IT, then the most obvious thing to do would be to start off by killing the Targs. How could either Dany or Viserys survive a single night under Illyrio's roof if Aegon's a Blackfyre? I'm not challenging the theory; I'm curious.

Aegon as Aegon makes sense to me. Martin has already had three people, two of them children, survive executions via replacement: Bran, Rickon, Davos. Aegon would be one more.

Here you go: offing Dany and Vis is a rather obvious thing to do, might raise questions, and is of little use except the obvious. Using them as a trading chip and then get them killed elsewhere by somewhere else is way more effective.

[Lopsang]

And Tyrion is always right, right?

Do you honestly think that GRRM would introduce a mystery and then blow it in the next PoV? When did he ver do that?

The point is that up till the Kevan epilogue, we never know anything about Varys' and Illyrio's true motivation, We are only at the very beginning of the reveal, with two more books to go, and it is not true that we know nothing of the Blackfyres.

Thing is, it isn't a mystery; it's a resolution. Not a mystery at all. It resolves the mystery about where Griff and Young Griff come from and who they really are. Tyrion's puzzling out of their identities is an epiphanal moment. The question is really why GRRM would apparently resolve a conflict and then go back on himself, reopen an old wound, and create another mystery there. The only reason why Aegon's legitimacy is mysterious in the eyes of this forum is because of all of these convoluted theories. You guys are making something out of nothing.

[EddardsHead]

Besides, this "Blackfyres" thing would be such a duex ex machina. What's the point of it? "Oh, here's a secret Targaryen. Nevermind, he's actually a secret Blackfyre. I know I've never really said anything about the Blackfyres, and they have never been important to the story, but they are now. And now they're getting the Iron Throne. Peace out".

100% agree with this. Aegon in my mind is a Targ, doesn't make much sense for George to tell us he is, then say HA-HA jk no he isn't.

The point is that up till the Kevan epilogue, we never know anything about Varys' and Illyrio's true motivation, We are only at the very beginning of the reveal, with two more books to go, and it is not true that we know nothing of the Blackfyres.

How often have the Blackfyre's been referenced in the text? Maybe a handful at most. They have never been important to the story at hand, they have only been important to the history of Westeros.

[Good Guy Garlan]

Here you go: offing Dany and Vis is a rather obvious thing to do, might raise questions, and is of little use except the obvious. Using them as a trading chip and then get them killed elsewhere by somewhere else is way more effective.

I think the trading chip part makes the most sense. Illyrio and Varys could have stealthily killed Viserys and Dany a thousand ways and no one would have been the wiser, but they needed them for the Drogo thing, which in turn was necessary to act as a smoke screen for Aegon

100% agree with this. Aegon in my mind is a Targ, doesn't make much sense for George to tell us he is, then say HA-HA jk no he isn't.

How often have the Blackfyre's been referenced in the text? Maybe a handful at most. They have never been important to the story at hand, they have only been important to the history of Westeros.

They're the main antagonists of the Dunk & Egg prequel novels, which yeah, is kind of cheating, but they provide a decent backstory for a potential Blackfyre conspiracy and the Bloodraven reveal.

Also, a fake claimant as opposed to an actual Targ would be more true to Varys' character as has been presented so far, regarding the whole "power resides where men believe it resides" speech

[Ygrain]

One of the most striking clues that Varys might have Targaryen blood (through Blackfyre, Brightflame or even Bittersteel) is this:

No one knew the Red Keep better than the eunuch.

Only the blood of the dragon would ever know the secrets of the fortress the Dragonlords had built, he [Maegor] vowed.

Whenever anything of import happened in the Red Keep, the eunuch appeared as if from nowhere.

And here is another possible clue:

The eunuch touched his neck and gaped at the blood on his fingers. “I have always abhorred the sight of my own blood.”

Varys is most probably taking blood metaphorically and referring to Aerys and other Targaryens as his own blood.

The quote with the bolded is one I always found highly suspicious, and wondered how Varys learned the secrets of the Red Keep.

Thing is, it isn't a mystery; it's a resolution. Not a mystery at all. It resolves the mystery about where Griff and Young Griff come from and who they really are. Tyrion's puzzling out of their identities is an epiphanal moment. The question is really why GRRM would apparently resolve a conflict and then go back on himself, reopen an old wound, and create another mystery there. The only reason why Aegon's legitimacy is mysterious in the eyes of this forum is because of all of these convoluted theories. You guys are making something out of nothing.

Resolution? After like, how many PoV chapters, three? Four? As simple as that?

And BTW, your "nothing" is the heralded coming of a "cloth dragon on poles amidst the cheering crowds" aka the "mummers' dragon", which is not a true dragon but a false one ("dragons true and false"), so where is this fake dragon? It's not like we have plenty of candidates for someone like that making an appearance, and the only "proof" of Aegon's identity is the word of Varys providing a story with zero verification.

How often have the Blackfyre's been referenced in the text? Maybe a handful at most. They have never been important to the story at hand, they have only been important to the history of Westeros.

ASOS: 4, AFFC: 1, ADWD: 8 (just Blackfyre by name, didn't have the time to do the related searches for GC or Bittersteel etc.)

But, what happened? In ADWD, we are introduced to the Golden Company, which, surprise, surprise, was founded by the Blackfyre supporters, and to Bloodraven who was directly involved back then. My, doesn't it look like we might learn a wee bit more about the Blackfyres in the next book, with two sources right at hand?

[Chebyshov]

The quote with the bolded is one I always found highly suspicious, and wondered how Varys learned the secrets of the Red Keep.

Resolution? After like, how many PoV chapters, three? Four? As simple as that?

And BTW, your "nothing" is the heralded coming of a "cloth dragon on poles amidst the cheering crowds" aka the "mummers' dragon", which is not a true dragon but a false one ("dragons true and false"), so where is this fake dragon? It's not like we have plenty of candidates for someone like that making an appearance, and the only "proof" of Aegon's identity is the word of Varys providing a story with zero proof.

Out of curiosity, do you consider a Blackfyre a "false dragon"? Because I tend to struggle with that point when it comes to BF theories (that and now its reveal would come to pass/be impactful).

[Mithras]

This is my brainstorming thread about the plans of Team fAegon in Essos.

ETA: The OP and post #36 include my current arguments though there are still things that do not make sense about the entire Essos arcs.

[The Bastard of Walton]

Like the theory. Well put together & makes sense.