The Dornish Master Plan (Spoilers)

[Jaqen H'Ghar Is The Doctor]

So I posted about this guy a while back I believe (at least I had planned to). Not sure if anyone has posted about him before but this guy seriously has the best theories. Not everyone will go along with him but he definitely knows his stuff and researches very in depth and cites every source for his claims. Definitely check out at least the series on the Martells and the Pink Letter.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6TBfdd_xNVo&list=PLCsx_OFEYH6uvfZSfec35DXBEpvA9fpm0&index=1

[Ser Cold Fingers]

W.C. Fields said it best. "If you can't dazzle them with brilliance, baffle them with bullshit."

Mr. Jacobs did spend some time on his theories and has cute videos, but several of his theories are a stretch at best and his interpretations of the text is greatly different than mine on most accounts. Not saying he is wrong, but I chose to disagree with the majority of his assessments until there is textual evidence of such. I'm speaking of his assessments as a whole...because he does have a few theories that most agree with, in part at least.

I have watched his videos, or most of them. Entertaining.

[Chebyshov]

I tend to be of the belief that Martin is writing a work of literature, not a jigsaw puzzle. I think a lot of theories like this, which attempt to weave convoluted pieces of "evidence" together for an all-encompassing "theory" ignore the actual narrative, themes, and characterizations at play.

Martin has written Arianne and Doran's storylines very carefully, and very well. My own thoughts on the two of theme are here: http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/topic/119855-love-trust-guilt-dorans-not-keeping-anything-from-arianne/?p=6410634. I don't see Doran as keeping anything from Arianne, nor do I see him being an ultimate puppet matter weaving everything to his end.

I also take issue with presenting theories in youtube form, which don't allow for the reader to go back and check the quotes and see how previous claims fit in. It's a very constructed way to give us "evidence" and it doesn't really allow for critical analysis the way essays do.

[JonCon's Red Beard]

W.C. Fields said it best. "If you can't dazzle them with brilliance, baffle them with bullshit."

I tend to be of the belief that Martin is writing a work of literature, not a jigsaw puzzle.

:agree:

Preston's theories are fun and well elaborated, but there is too much assumption that he takes for evidence.

[Julia Martell]

As some one who spent a good deal of her early twenties critically looking at conspiracy theories, these videos seem very familiar.

But really, the biggest problem I have is what Kylie said, it completely ignores character and theme. This is a problem I have with a lot of theories, fair to say. The Dornish Master Plan and the Tower of Joy/R+L=D stuff are the worst offenders in my opinion, because they take what are two very well written characters with real conflicts and flaws (Doran and Ned), and very relatable motivations and basically says “Oh, they’re lying”.

No. Just no.

[Raving Stark the Mad]

I call this a "brownsleeve" theory. Due to the depth one has to reach into his own descending colon to find it.

[YoungGriff89]

R+L = D (for Dany I assume) isn't that crazy of a theory.

[Amoracchius]

R+L = D (for Dany I assume) isn't that crazy of a theory.

Seeing as Dany's brother and countless other people were present for her birth (and her mother's death birthing her) on Dragonstone, I'd say that R+L=D isn't possible.

[aryagonnakill#2]

^I don't think you should even legitimize those theories with a response.

[Mladen]

R+L = D (for Dany I assume) isn't that crazy of a theory.

Not at all... I mean, the fact that she is 8-9 months younger than Jon certainly makes a case for them to be twins.

Since this came from the same factory as the Jon/Dany twins, I have rather low opinion of it. I don't understand the hype, but then again, people bought Howland Reed=High Septon BS. One day people will learn to think while they read. It will be a joyous day indeed.

[JonCon's Red Beard]

QUENTYN IS ALIIVEEEEEEEE!!!!

[Colonel Green]

R+L = D (for Dany I assume) isn't that crazy of a theory.

In addition to what other people have already said, it also requires Ned to give his sister's baby to the Targaryens to possibly be used as a political tool against Robert's regime, which he would never do.

[Julia Martell]

Not at all... I mean, the fact that she is 8-9 months younger than Jon certainly makes a case for them to be twins.

Since this came from the same factory as the Jon/Dany twins, I have rather low opinion of it. I don't understand the hype, but then again, people bought Howland Reed=High Septon BS. One day people will learn to think while they read. It will be a joyous day indeed.

Will this be the same day that people realize that this is a story written in the 21st century for a 21st century audience and that we’re not suppose to take the character’s values dissonance at face value?

That will be an awesome day! I’ll make lemon cakes! We’ll have a street party!

[YoungGriff89]

Seeing as Dany's brother and countless other people were present for her birth (and her mother's death birthing her) on Dragonstone, I'd say that R+L=D isn't possible.

At the risk of legitimizing a crackpot theory, did viserys physically see Dany come out of his mother? Why didn't Viserys ever regale Dany with stories about the spectacle of the stone Dragons at Dragonstone? Did we see all of what happened at the tower of joy through Ned's pov or did his dream end before anything actually happened? Did Stannis get to Dragonstone in time to see the targaryen children were actually there? Didn't the book mention that Dany's name was originally supposed to be visenya?

Granted there is a lot of convenience and circumstantial evidence to support something so unlikely but the books aren't finished and I'm sure if you dug through the books you could find even more support. The tower of joy isn't that far from the sea and we're seeing in season five the journey to Sunspear (further from KL than TOJ) from King's Landing can plausibly be done in an episode or so, so it isn't completely impossible that's Ned's secret or part of it. But it's most likely crackpot.

[JonCon's Red Beard]

I think that the reason some believe in R+L = D (or J + D) is that in the books, the chronology is not very clear. When I first read, I also thought "maybe Brandon is actually Robb's father"... but after some re-readings, I realise that not only Cat's thoughts disprove it, but also the timeline. Is it even stated in the books that the Rebellion lasted for around one year? If it is, I've definitely missed it, tbh.

[YoungGriff89]

I'm personally more inclined to believe R+L = A&J admittedly, but even that's a reach. I just randomly came to the thought one day what if Dany is actually Rhaegar's daughter and not his sister? I know a few examples you could grab to make a case but that doesn't make it solid. I only say it isn't that crazy a theory because it really isn't that insane compared to some others.

And realistically parts of the Dornish master plan could be true, we have two more books worth of things Doran might reveal. Who's to say he didn't somehow arrange for the royal family to come to some random part of Dorne since his sister and nieces risked certain death in the rebellion and Dragonstone is logically the first place to look for fleeing Targaryens

[JonCon's Red Beard]

I'm personally more inclined to believe R+L = A&J a

Rhaegar and Lyanna = Aerys and Joanna???

[Mladen]

Will this be the same day that people realize that this is a story written in the 21st century for a 21st century audience and that we’re not suppose to take the character’s values dissonance at face value?

That will be an awesome day! I’ll make lemon cakes! We’ll have a street party!

I will drink to that...

At the risk of legitimizing a crackpot theory, did viserys physically see Dany come out of his mother? Why didn't Viserys ever regale Dany with stories about the spectacle of the stone Dragons at Dragonstone? Did we see all of what happened at the tower of joy through Ned's pov or did his dream end before anything actually happened? Did Stannis get to Dragonstone in time to see the targaryen children were actually there? Didn't the book mention that Dany's name was originally supposed to be visenya?

Granted there is a lot of convenience and circumstantial evidence to support something so unlikely but the books aren't finished and I'm sure if you dug through the books you could find even more support. The tower of joy isn't that far from the sea and we're seeing in season five the journey to Sunspear (further from KL than TOJ) from King's Landing can plausibly be done in an episode or so, so it isn't completely impossible that's Ned's secret or part of it. But it's most likely crackpot.

The one who named her "Stormborn" certainly did... Dany's birth was pretty much public event.

[prince_aegon]

think the dornish plan went out the window when quentyn died. dorne only has spears to offer and without marraige they will still choose targs

[Jaqen H'Ghar Is The Doctor]

I think that the reason some believe in R+L = D (or J + D) is that in the books, the chronology is not very clear. When I first read, I also thought "maybe Brandon is actually Robb's father"... but after some re-readings, I realise that not only Cat's thoughts disprove it, but also the timeline. Is it even stated in the books that the Rebellion lasted for around one year? If it is, I've definitely missed it, tbh.

problem is that Martin has said on occasion that not all of our narrators are reliable people and that they could even be lying to themselves.  So we aren't getting a completely reliable narrative to go by.  That's why these theories can exist because you can't take every single thing that is said (especially about the past) at face value.  There is a lot of scheming going on a secret workings and Martin is incredibly intelligent enough to work out complex plots like these over many books and put in red herrings.

I don't believe every theory that he makes and recently he's starting to fall victim to confirmation bias but you can't disprove something simply by saying a character thought this or said this.  We won't know for sure until all the books are out (the show isn't even a reliable source anymore).