Keeping Aegon from Daenerys and Viserys?

[kimim]

Actually it isn't, or at least, it's getting to be where it isn't. Jon Arryn is dead, Ned's now coming on board as Hand, the Lannister siblings could soon get caught, people are starting to dig around. I think that's the point of Illyrio and Varys's conversation in the dungeon: They need the weakening of the regime to better coincide with their plans.

There is no way that Robert, while alive and king, would be unable to deal with a Dothraki horde. After he dies, there's a civil war, but Tywin with Tyrells should be able to take them out. Same for Stannis, after he gets Renly's men. If Aegon appears at that point, he'd be seen as a pest, not a savior.

The other problem: IF Drogo and Dany managed to arrive, and present a real threat, then the odds of Aegon being able to beat them back and get crowned as the savior are low. Any force that defeats Tywin, Stannis, or Robert, or Robb, will defeat Aegon.

So the hope must have been for massive destabilization. Problem here is

1. Varys doesn't want Ned executed, as he presumably doesn't want civil war. If he wants to weaken the realm to the point where 40,000 Dothraki could be a threat, why would he discourage Ned's beheading after Robert's death? He's no saint, and takes down Kevan easily enough.

2. Why should either Varys or Illyrio want the kingdom to decline slowly? It should be faster the better, from their pov. Kingdoms don't decline over a week, and then return in another week. It's going to be a longish process, as it is. Why worry?

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

I still do not believe that a Dothraki invasion was really planned by Varys/Illyrio. How does this look? The last Targaryens are bringing "godless savages" to create suffering and make the Realm hate the Targaryens once more but later the son of their beloved prince comes back from the dead to claim the IT. Since the last two Targaryens will have ended in madness and suffering to the Realm, how can fAegon expect to gather support? How will the people and Lords alike believe that fAegon does not have the taint?

I think the crucial difference here is that Aegon will be more associated with Rhaegar, who people actually liked. He's being raised by Rhaegar's friend and seems to have been raised well. It's not a case of the Targaryen taint; more like, two are Mad Aerys' kids and one is Rhaegar's kid.

[JonCon's Red Beard]

I've been convinced for a long time that there's more to Varys than sitting someone's ass on the throne. Even with copious amounts of blackfyre family fanfic the whole thing makes little sense. Not to mention it's underwhelming. The kid may or may not be a fake but something is up.

Being a BF loyalist makes no sense to me. Aegon won't be known as a Blackfyre but as a Targaryen. But it matters little because he will know "the truth" deep inside? He's doing this because he's going to feel secretly satisfied? Nah.

Varys' story looks idiotic not even for us readers for it will be the same for everybody else. As soon as someone asked how and who saved Aegon, what's he's going to say? "Varys switched me with another baby?". They are not idiots and they did not trust Varys. Also, who is paying the Golden Company? JonCon has no money. Illyrio? Some merchant from Pentos?

There must be some other explanation that they will give the Lords about how Aegon is still alive, and that explanation, which I hope it's convincing, might end up being the truth and what Varys claims to be real, it's fake.

[ruffian]

I think the crucial difference here is that Aegon will be more associated with Rhaegar, who people actually liked. He's being raised by Rhaegar's friend and seems to have been raised well. It's not a case of the Targaryen taint; more like, two are Mad Aerys' kids and one is Rhaegar's kid.

I can buy that, but it still does't seem to address how Aegon (especially at this point in time) has the power to conquer Westeros with the war of 5 kings and a Dothraki invasion. I just don't see him really being a contender, and I think Varys/Illyrio would know that as well.

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

There is no way that Robert, while alive and king, would be unable to deal with a Dothraki horde. After he dies, there's a civil war, but Tywin with Tyrells should be able to take them out. Same for Stannis, after he gets Renly's men. If Aegon appears at that point, he'd be seen as a pest, not a savior.

Where have I said that Robert wouldn't be unable to deal with a Dothraki horde? I think he would and I think that's the motivation for Varys highballing the number. But that success would come at a price; it would still weaken him and whatever support he may have had from the peasant class would probably be gone, given that lords would be holing up in castles while the Dothraki pillaged and raped the countryside.

A huge part of Varys' plan regarding Aegon seems to be to tap into the as-yet-unexploited resources of the common people. Varys sells Aegon as a salt-of-the-earth sort, and there are theories that he means to align Aegon with the Faith, which has its finger on the populist pulse. Based on that, I don't think it's ludicrous to suggest that the Dothraki invasion also has a PR element to it, such that even if Robert is successful, it leaves a bad enough taste in people's mouths that they're willing to turn to someone like Aegon.

The other problem: IF Drogo and Dany managed to arrive, and present a real threat, then the odds of Aegon being able to beat them back and get crowned as the savior are low. Any force that defeats Tywin, Stannis, or Robert, or Robb, will defeat Aegon.

Which is precisely why the Dothraki invasion was never designed to be a "real threat," just a destabilization.

1. Varys doesn't want Ned executed, as he presumably doesn't want civil war. If he wants to weaken the realm to the point where 40,000 Dothraki could be a threat, why would he discourage Ned's beheading after Robert's death? He's no saint, and takes down Kevan easily enough.

2. Why should either Varys or Illyrio want the kingdom to decline slowly? It should be faster the better, from their pov. Kingdoms don't decline over a week, and then return in another week. It's going to be a longish process, as it is. Why worry?

1. It's not that Varys doesn't want civil war, it's that he wants conflict to be on his terms and controllable. Ned's execution introduces more variables to the conflict, like Robb marching down to fight the Lannisters, that Varys isn't in direct control of.

2. Again, maybe read the discussion between Illyrio and Varys in the dungeon. They had it all pretty carefully planned out to be a slow or at least a controlled burn, with specific timing. It's not about "fast is better" or "slow is better," but rather "a bunch of stuff needs to occur at a time time and in a set order for this to work." That's why there's worry about stuff happening too fast; it's not that they give a shit about the kingdom falling apart, it's that they need it to do so in a set way and on a set timeline.

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

I can buy that, but it still does't seem to address how Aegon (especially at this point in time) has the power to conquer Westeros with the war of 5 kings and a Dothraki invasion. I just don't see him really being a contender, and I think Varys/Illyrio would know that as well.

Interesting that you'd say that when now seems to be the perfect time for him to come. The War of the Five Kings has wound down; four of the kings are dead. The ironborn are demanding the attention of the Reach and the Tyrells. Tywin is dead. Stannis is penned in in the North and has his hands full with the Boltons. Tywin and Kevan are dead and Cersei's incompetence has no checks on it anymore. Dany is still half a world away. The region most poised to ally with Aegon is also the one that took pretty much no losses in the war.

And so on.

[Lykos]

JonCon, I believe that when Varys was telling Tyrion about the mummers company that sold him to a wizard, he was actually talking about the Golden Company.

I think he might be related to Aenys Blackfyre (up to now I thought it might be Bittersteel) and he was not supported by the brawny bunch that is the GC. But it also doesn't make any sense to me that he should be after revenge against the Targaryens as well as the Blackfyres.

I agree with you that it would be incredibly naive to think that Aegon could start another successful dynasty.

[ruffian]

Interesting that you'd say that when now seems to be the perfect time for him to come. The War of the Five Kings has wound down; four of the kings are dead. The ironborn are demanding the attention of the Reach and the Tyrells. Tywin is dead. Stannis is penned in in the North and has his hands full with the Boltons. Tywin and Kevan are dead and Cersei's incompetence has no checks on it anymore. Dany is still half a world away. The region most poised to ally with Aegon is also the one that took pretty much no losses in the war.

And so on.

Not "now" being the end of aDwD, but "at this point in time" being when Varys and Illyrio are having their conversation in the vaults (aGoT), or soon thereafter. If the intention was for Drogo/Dany to come with the Dothraki, which I am assuming was supposed to be not long after their marriage (hence why Varys is already making drama back in Westeros), then Aegon would have needed to be prepared a long time ago. At that time, the war was just starting.

The whole basis of this discussion was that Aegon would be introduced during a time (or shortly thereafter) when Dany is invading with Dothraki, painting Dany as a villain and Aegon as a savior.

[Lykos]

Again.

Arya in Game

"Nonetheless, we must have time. The princess is with child. The khal will not bestir himself until his son is born. You know how they are, these savages."

I think the original plan was to have Viserys acknowledge his nephew, who supplies him with another army and then turn on Viserys as he messes up, just as people hoped Rhaegar would turn against Aerys.

The Lost Lord, Dance.

“Which plan?” said Tristan Rivers. “The fat man’s plan? The one that changes every time the moon turns? First Viserys Targaryen was to join us with fifty thousand Dothraki screamers at his back.

Then the Beggar King was dead, and it was to be the sister, a pliable young child queen who was on her way to Pentos with three newhatched dragons. Instead the girl turns up on Slaver’s Bay and leaves a string of burning cities in her wake, and the fat
man decides we should meet her by Volantis. Now that plan is in ruins as well.

[ruffian]

Again.

Arya in Game

I think the original plan was to have Viserys acknowledge his nephew, who supplies him with another army and then turn on Viserys as he messes up, just as people hoped Rhaegar would turn against Aerys.

The Lost Lord, Dance.

So Plan A: Viserys would supply Aegon with an army (I'm assuming an army of Dothraki)? Aegon would eventually stab Viserys in the back and take over. And where does Dany factor into this?

It does seem that Dany was significantly underestimated by Illyrio...who mentioned he expected her to die with the Dothraki.

But why help Viserys and Dany in the first place? Just to get the Dothraki army (for Aegon) through marriage? It seems like quite a gamble to think that the Dothraki would eventually listen to Dany and/or Viserys and cross the narrow sea for a chunk of land they care nothing about.

[Lykos]

ruffian, sorry I wasn't clear (W-Lan problems).

Aegon and Golden Company were meant to join Viserys and the Dothraki.

I'm convinced that the Golden Company believes that Aegon is a Blackfyre and that they're tricking Viserys to acknowledge Aegon as Rhaegar's son. Dany's "just a woman" and was the price for Khal Drogo's screamers.

As soon as Viserys shows his incompetence, Aegon takes over.

It's not quite clear wether the attempt to poison Dany wasn't meant to be successful, in any case it was meant to bring Khal Drogo to cross the Narrow Sea, it certainly was an attempt to speed up things.

The problem Illyrio had, was to get support for Aegon that makes him uncontested. He was to be built up as Daemon Blackfyre and Rhaegar Targaryen come again - the true heir of Aegon the Conqueror.

[Facebookless Man]

You can't wait for Viserys to fuck up. If Aegon is alive Viserys is not king. Or do you mean keep Aegon hidden and when Vis screws up you go "that's not a problem, I happen to have another targ claimant on hand"?

[Lykos]

Viserys comes first in the line of succession, since Rhaegar died before Aerys and Aerys didn't abdicate. At least officially.

[Gibzit]

Viserys comes first in the line of succession, since Rhaegar died before Aerys and Aerys didn't abdicate. At least officially.

When a king dies, the crown moves to his firstborn son, but if he is dead, the crown once again moves to the firstborn's firstborn since the firstborn was king for a second before the crown "realized" he was dead.

[Lykos]

Are you trying to tell me that Aerys didn' know that Rhaegar had died?

[Gibzit]

Just look up Primogeniture

[ruffian]

ruffian, sorry I wasn't clear (W-Lan problems).

Aegon and Golden Company were meant to join Viserys and the Dothraki.

I'm convinced that the Golden Company believes that Aegon is a Blackfyre and that they're tricking Viserys to acknowledge Aegon as Rhaegar's son. Dany's "just a woman" and was the price for Khal Drogo's screamers.

As soon as Viserys shows his incompetence, Aegon takes over.

It's not quite clear wether the attempt to poison Dany wasn't meant to be successful, in any case it was meant to bring Khal Drogo to cross the Narrow Sea, it certainly was an attempt to speed up things.

The problem Illyrio had, was to get support for Aegon that makes him uncontested. He was to be built up as Daemon Blackfyre and Rhaegar Targaryen come again - the true heir of Aegon the Conqueror.

If you were Illyrio, would you have thought that Viserys would be down to join Aegon and the GC, considering Viserys went to the GC and they laughed in his face? Maybe I'm giving Illyrio and Varys too much credit, but it seems that one brief meeting with Viserys and you would see he's a total prick who wouldn't be very forgiving to such a slight.

And, also knowing the Dothraki culture (which is totally at odds with Viserys' personality), do you think Illyrio really thought that partnership could stand to win a war? Did he really think that Viserys could rally the Dothraki? Did he really think that the Dothraki would listen to some random dude?

None of this seems to mesh to me. Sorry I don't have any theories of my own...just questions and doubts.

When a king dies, the crown moves to his firstborn son, but if he is dead, the crown once again moves to the firstborn's firstborn since the firstborn was king for a second before the crown "realized" he was dead.

I don't think so. Since Rhaegar died before Aerys, Rhaegar was taken out of the equation and thus his line is, too. Rhaegar was never king for a second, because he was dead. Thus, Viserys would be heir #2 to Aerys.

[JonCon's Red Beard]

The Lost Lord, Dance.

This is very interesting.

According to Rivers, Viserys was meant to join them with the Dothraki. So, was V/I plan to have a conjuncted attack of them to Westeros? Because that first attack was meant to fail.

And if Varys intentions were never send Viserys with the GC, then V/I have also being lying to them.

[Facebookless Man]

Viserys comes first in the line of succession, since Rhaegar died before Aerys and Aerys didn't abdicate. At least officially.

Yeah that's not how it works. If Rhaegar had died right after Aegon's birth Aegon would have become Aerys' heir.

[Facebookless Man]

I don't think so. Since Rhaegar died before Aerys, Rhaegar was taken out of the equation and thus his line is, too. Rhaegar was never king for a second, because he was dead. Thus, Viserys would be heir #2 to Aerys.

Nope.

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Primogeniture