Keeping Aegon from Daenerys and Viserys?

[JonCon's Red Beard]

You're telling me that Viserys didn't mention this to Illyrio? I mean I know for a fact that Illyrio knew they would fight for them if asked.

Mention what? The engagement pact? Viserys did not know. Neither Dany. It was a secret between Dorne and Willem Darry, with the sealord of Braavos as a witness.

[Lykos]

<snip> I mean I know for a fact that Illyrio knew they would fight for them if asked.

Pray tell me where you got that fact from? The only one who is certain that Dorne will fight for Aegon is Jon Con and that's only because he believes that he's the son of Elia.

The Lost Lord, Dance.

“Even so,” said Strickland, “alone, we cannot hope to—”

Griff had heard enough of the captain-general’s cowardice. “We will not be alone. Dorne will join us, must join us. Prince Aegon is Elia’s son as well as Rhaegar’s.”

[Justin Amey]

Pray tell me where you got that fact from? The only one who is certain that Dorne will fight for Aegon is Jon Con and that's only because he believes that he's the son of Elia.

The Lost Lord, Dance.

Revenge. Doran didn't know Aegon was supposed alive until TWOW sample chapter, they were ready to marry Viserys and throne.

[Lykos]

I understand what reasons Doran might have to join Aegon's cause,

we know that he sent Arianne to check this Aegon out,

but where is it stated that Dorne played a part in Illyrio's plans ? Strickland's reaction points to Dorne being a uncertain part in the Golden Company's plans.

[kimim]

I also think this is it.

You can easily tell that the Dothraki invasion, at least the iteration we see described in the first book, was never meant to succeed. Robert thinks Drogo has 100K men, but he really only offers Viserys 10K. At most he only has 40K. Robert is expecting to face up to 10 times as many fighters as may actually come, assuming they all even make it over.

If Varys actually wanted Robert to lose to the Dothraki, why highball the number so much? If anything he should've lowballed it so Robert isn't as prepared.

So Viserys and Dany are set up to wage an invasion that was never going to succeed, and Robert prevails but is in a much weaker position due to losses, pillaging, whatever. In comes Aegon to save the day.

This still doesn't make sense.

Drogo's death is an accident. Without that, Dany and Drogo would use the eggs to buy ships, and arrive on Westeros in the middle of the war of the five kings. Robert would be very dead at this point. They'd arrive with 40,000 men at most, which means that they'd be dangerous, but not an existential threat. Stannis or Tywin would be able to take them out without major problems. If, at that point, Aegon also arrived with his people, there'd just be a war of the seven kings, and neither Dany nor Aegon would be seen as a savior.

Other possibility: Varys and Illyrio knew that the dragons would hatch. If Dany and Drogo appeared with dragons+40,000 men, then they would be deadly. Problem: Aegon would be no more capable of defeating that than anyone else.

[JonCon's Red Beard]

I understand what reasons Doran might have to join Aegon's cause,

we know that he sent Arianne to check this Aegon out,

but where is it stated that Dorne played a part in Illyrio's plans ? Strickland's reaction points to Dorne being a uncertain part in the Golden Company's plans.

Doran sent Arianne to

find out about Quentyn and the Dragons. That's why she should sent back news about "dragons" or "war", nothing more and nothing less. Finding out about Aegon is kinda a secondary task.

Also, Martin himself said that V and I did not know about the pact between Viserys and Dorne. They know, about Dorne, what everybody else assumes, that they will join them as soon as they find out Aegon because he's Elia's son.

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

This still doesn't make sense.

Drogo's death is an accident. Without that, Dany and Drogo would use the eggs to buy ships, and arrive on Westeros in the middle of the war of the five kings. Robert would be very dead at this point. They'd arrive with 40,000 men at most, which means that they'd be dangerous, but not an existential threat. Stannis or Tywin would be able to take them out without major problems. If, at that point, Aegon also arrived with his people, there'd just be a war of the seven kings, and neither Dany nor Aegon would be seen as a savior.

I'm not talking about the period after Drogo's death, I'm talking about the circumstances as they were when Robert tells Ned about the wedding and says he thinks Drogo has 100K men.

Dany and Viserys are the assholes that bring a Dothraki horde to Westeros.

Robert survives that but is still on people's shit list after that horde inevitably starts pillaging Westeros; it looks like Robert is incapable of defending his people.

Aegon swoops in and helps clean up the mess. People are sour on Dany and Viserys for unleashing the horde, and sour on Robert for being king when this horde lands and goes buck wild on the countryside. Aegon's the stabilizing alternative.

Other possibility: Varys and Illyrio knew that the dragons would hatch. If Dany and Drogo appeared with dragons+40,000 men, then they would be deadly. Problem: Aegon would be no more capable of defeating that than anyone else.

People keep saying this and near as I can tell, absolutely nothing suggests it. You point out the problem yourself: Why the hell would they give Dany eggs they thought would hatch if there was ever a possibility that she and Aegon would be adversaries, or if they didn't actually want her to be queen?

The eggs were given basically as currency and there was no way to know that they'd hatch. As you point out above, Drogo's death (i.e. all the stuff that led up to the hatching) was an unforeseen accident. So how would Varys and Illyrio have been able to predict it?

[Lykos]

JonCon, yes I know. I wanted to know wether I missed something that made Justin Amey so certain that Illyrio was assuming Dorne would join Aegon's cause if needed.

kimim, if Varys and Illyrio are supporting an imposter they have the problem that they didn't announce the claim, by setting up a court in exile or similar. They're using the fact that Viserys has a better claim as explaination why Aegon shows up so late.

All they have to do now is convince Viserys and / or Dany to acknowledge Aegon and arrange for them to create a mess when trying to take back Westeros, then sent in the son of the prince, that almost all of Westeros put their hopes in, to save the day.

Maybe they need to arrange for Viserys to die, but not necessarily since no one would want him.

They didn't count on Viserys being that stupid, or Dany becoming so powerful.

[Facebookless Man]

I'm not talking about the period after Drogo's death, I'm talking about the circumstances as they were when Robert tells Ned about the wedding and says he thinks Drogo has 100K men.

Dany and Viserys are the assholes that bring a Dothraki horde to Westeros.

Robert survives that but is still on people's shit list after that horde inevitably starts pillaging Westeros; it looks like Robert is incapable of defending his people.

Aegon swoops in and helps clean up the mess. People are sour on Dany and Viserys for unleashing the horde, and sour on Robert for being king when this horde lands and goes buck wild on the countryside. Aegon's the stabilizing alternative.

Does that stuff actually, seriously make sense to anyone?

[kimim]

I'm not talking about the period after Drogo's death, I'm talking about the circumstances as they were when Robert tells Ned about the wedding and says he thinks Drogo has 100K men.

Dany and Viserys are the assholes that bring a Dothraki horde to Westeros.

Robert survives that but is still on people's shit list after that horde inevitably starts pillaging Westeros; it looks like Robert is incapable of defending his people.

Aegon swoops in and helps clean up the mess. People are sour on Dany and Viserys for unleashing the horde, and sour on Robert for being king when this horde lands and goes buck wild on the countryside. Aegon's the stabilizing alternative.

People keep saying this and near as I can tell, absolutely nothing suggests it. You point out the problem yourself: Why the hell would they give Dany eggs they thought would hatch if there was ever a possibility that she and Aegon would be adversaries, or if they didn't actually want her to be queen?

The eggs were given basically as currency and there was no way to know that they'd hatch. As you point out above, Drogo's death (i.e. all the stuff that led up to the hatching) was an unforeseen accident. So how would Varys and Illyrio have been able to predict it?

Again, it doesn't make sense. Before Robert's death, Westeros is united. There is no civil war. Robert might be a lousy king, but he is an excellent general. If Drogo and Dany arrive with 40,000 men, THEY would be the assholes. Robert should be able to take them out easily, which makes him the hero.

Then Aegon appears. Robert, the hero, has just taken out two evil Targs. He takes Aegon out, possibly more easily.

Baratheon-Lannisters remain on the throne.

[JonCon's Red Beard]

Does that stuff actually, seriously make sense to anyone?

Apple's post or Varys' plans?

Because V&I's plans make little sense. Or at least, they don't really care for a plan. Unlike LF, they are aware of the participants of the plans making changes here and there and they adapt. Mostly would say that Varys "sets up" people to act in the way he needs them to act, but there is always the chance of not being lucky.

Of course, there all could be a lie. Maybe Lysono Maar is Varys' men and he was put there to convince the others about not joining Dany because it was dangerous. But that isn't exactly a lie. I know some would even suggest Illyrio paying money to others to go and block any access to Dany so Aegon wouldn't go to her :dunno:

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

Again, it doesn't make sense. Before Robert's death, Westeros is united. There is no civil war. Robert might be a lousy king, but he is an excellent general. If Drogo and Dany arrive with 40,000 men, THEY would be the assholes. Robert should be able to take them out easily, which makes him the hero.

Then Aegon appears. Robert, the hero, has just taken out two evil Targs. He takes Aegon out, possibly more easily.

Baratheon-Lannisters remain on the throne.

Actually it isn't, or at least, it's getting to be where it isn't. Jon Arryn is dead, Ned's now coming on board as Hand, the Lannister siblings could soon get caught, people are starting to dig around. I think that's the point of Illyrio and Varys's conversation in the dungeon: They need the weakening of the regime to better coincide with their plans.

[Lykos]

Again, it doesn't make sense. Before Robert's death, Westeros is united. There is no civil war. Robert might be a lousy king, but he is an excellent general. If Drogo and Dany arrive with 40,000 men, THEY would be the assholes. Robert should be able to take them out easily, which makes him the hero.

<snip>

They're working on the destabilization, their problem is that it's happening too fast.

Arya in Game.

"...found one bastard," one said. "The rest will come soon. A day, two days, a fortnight . . ."

"And when he learns the truth, what will he do?" a second voice asked in the liquid accents of the Free Cities.

"The gods alone know," the first voice said. Arya could see a wisp of grey smoke drifting up off the torch, writhing like a snake as it rose. "The fools tried to kill his son, and what's worse, they made a mummer's farce of it. He's not a man to put that aside. I warn you, the wolf and lion will soon be at each other's throats, whether we will it or no."

"Too soon, too soon," the voice with the accent complained. "What good is war now? We are not ready. Delay."

"As well bid me stop time. Do you take me for a wizard?"

The other chuckled. "No less." Flames licked at the cold air. <snip>

"What would you have me do?" <snip>

"If one Hand can die, why not a second?" replied the man with the accent and the forked yellow beard. "You have danced the dance before, my friend." <snip>

"Before is not now, and this Hand is not the other," <snip>

"Perhaps so," the forked beard replied, pausing to catch his breath after the long climb. "Nonetheless, we must have time. The princess is with child. The khal will not bestir himself until his son is born. You know how they are, these savages."

[Mithras]

I still do not believe that a Dothraki invasion was really planned by Varys/Illyrio. How does this look? The last Targaryens are bringing "godless savages" to create suffering and make the Realm hate the Targaryens once more but later the son of their beloved prince comes back from the dead to claim the IT. Since the last two Targaryens will have ended in madness and suffering to the Realm, how can fAegon expect to gather support? How will the people and Lords alike believe that fAegon does not have the taint?

[raegal_targaryen]

viserys didnt know either the caretaker of viserys and daenerys knew willem darry i think and the sealord of bravoos.

[Facebookless Man]

Apple's post or Varys' plans?

Because V&I's plans make little sense. Or at least, they don't really care for a plan. Unlike LF, they are aware of the participants of the plans making changes here and there and they adapt. Mostly would say that Varys "sets up" people to act in the way he needs them to act, but there is always the chance of not being lucky.

Of course, there all could be a lie. Maybe Lysono Maar is Varys' men and he was put there to convince the others about not joining Dany because it was dangerous. But that isn't exactly a lie. I know some would even suggest Illyrio paying money to others to go and block any access to Dany so Aegon wouldn't go to her :dunno:

I meant the plan as presented. It's stupid beyond belief. I mean, we already got murder by boar and the valyrian knife of chaos but "yo i herd you liek invasions so i put an invasion in your invasion' would be a new low.

[Lykos]

Mithras Stoneborn, why did the people think Aerys mad and loved Rhaegar? Because Varys made the one look paranoid and the other was a young, good looking educated warrior.

[JonCon's Red Beard]

I meant the plan as presented. It's stupid beyond belief. I mean, we already got murder by boar and the valyrian knife of chaos but "yo i herd you liek invasions so i put an invasion in your invasion' would be a new low.

Yep. Varys' plans are so inconsistent that I'm starting to feel it's all a facade we're falling for while he's been in fact secretly planning something different. For instance, the switch of the babies is ridiculous. Either is fake (possible) or there is something about it that he's hiding. Because if he believes people in Westeros will believe it, he's naive, and V is not naive.

Idem for Dany. First, they wanted them killed, then, she becomes a good prospect for a wife. Then, they left Essos without her and her powerful weapons. It's like he doesn't care about his own plans.

Mithras Stoneborn, why did the people think Aerys mad and loved Rhaegar? Because Varys made the one look paranoid and the other was a young, good looking educated warrior.

Aerys was already paranoid by the time Varys got there.

[Facebookless Man]

Yep. Varys' plans are so inconsistent that I'm starting to feel it's all a facade we're falling for while he's been in fact secretly planning something different. For instance, the switch of the babies is ridiculous. Either is fake (possible) or there is something about it that he's hiding. Because if he believes people in Westeros will believe it, he's naive, and V is not naive.

I've been convinced for a long time that there's more to Varys than sitting someone's ass on the throne. Even with copious amounts of blackfyre family fanfic the whole thing makes little sense. Not to mention it's underwhelming. The kid may or may not be a fake but something is up.

[Lykos]

Aerys was already paranoid by the time Varys got there.

Okay more paranoid then. But i think it best to not take it as fact. It's said that Aerys became paranoid after Duskendale, which caused him to hire Varys. This might be a hen or egg thing. In my view he wasn't right in his mind much earlier, but when did public perception change? I'd say with Varys.