Heresy 144 the Christmas edition

[Black Crow]

Is it not more likely that Bryn Blackwood, who was put into the earth a long time ago is the current Oak/Summer KIng, and Bran Stark destined to be the next Oak/Summer King. After all Bran, the sweet summer's child, has been brought underground at the summer's end to await the spring, because now Winter is coming and his brother Jon must take on the role of Holly/Winter King

[MaesterSam]

Should someone come to Winterfell looking for Jon and threatening Cat's children in the process, you'd better bet she'd be driving the bus that ran Jon flat down. She could not be trusted with Jon's safety over that of her own children, should that ever be a choice she had to make.

Yes, but who would come looking? I'm not suggesting Ned announce his secret to the public, only to Cat (and I guess Jon- why can't he know?).

And if someone came to WF, convinced Jon is [fill in the blank] and threatens Cat's children, she would give him up in a heartbeat regardless of whether she knows/believes these claims to be true. She hates him b/c he is a living reminder that Ned was unfaithful; her finding out the truth is not a problem as long as nobody else does.

Having been reminded of this post a thought occurs to me here.

There is an assumption that Rhaegar had his wicked way with Lya because he thought he was acting out the Prince that was Promised prophecy and so the assumption goes on R+L=Azor Ahai the Prince that was Promised - as a union of Ice and Fire.

However we've also had a lot in both text and SSM about how unreliable prophecies are, or rather that while prophesies do come to pass they don't do so in the form fondly anticipated by those who hopefully interpret them. Is it possible therefore that a union of Ice and Fire might not produce the saviour but the antichrist and that is why the Pact of Ice and Fire referred to in the World Book was never consumated?

[and no there was no letter, Varys offered but told Ned he would read anything he wrote and then send it on only if he chose to]

Yes!! This is more or less what I was suggesting earlier- that Jon is not the world's savior but something very different. (I had assumed this would require a different father than Rhaegar, but I suppose it doesn't necessarily.) In this scenario, the promise could well involve more than simply protection and secrecy.

You're right on the letter- I reread that part last night. Funny how easy it is to become an unreliable narrator. All this time I was waiting for the letter to surface... and wondering how its contents were affecting Varys' actions, since obviously he would have read it.

[Voice]

You know, I just thought of an interesting parallel.

An eagle, mayhaps?

.

An eagle burned from the inside?

It's belated, but I wanted to offer you a cheers on this catch as well :cheers:

[Black Crow]

Yes!! This is more or less what I was suggesting earlier- that Jon is not the world's savior but something very different. (I had assumed this would require a different father than Rhaegar, but I suppose it doesn't necessarily.) In this scenario, the promise could well involve more than simply protection and secrecy.

It rather depends who knows what.

Even if Ned knows or suspects that Jon is going to be dangerous [and I'm having a hard time seeing any evidence of such knowledge then or later] then the promise might then go beyond protecting Jon from outsiders, but promising not to destroy him even if it will lead to trouble in the future. I certainly don't see it as a broken promise to sacrifice Jon.

[Voice]

There doesn't need to be an 'evil race' for there to be a hierarchy, I think the hierarchy some of us are assuming is relatively straightforward: grunts (wights), field commanders (white walkers/Craster's sons), and leadership (Night's King and his companions). In all cases, they were formerly men, rather than some foreign race from the Lands of Always Winter.

Granted, I've allowed myself to be heavily influenced by the way the show is adapting what's going on north of the Wall, but I suspect that their Night's King isn't simply an antagonist that D&D conjured out of thin air; I think he is indeed the 13th LC, and his 12 companions in black that were at the end of Oathkeeper are autonomous dead men, like Cold Hands - the men of the NW that were his companions in life.

Honestly, I think there's plenty of material to create this suspicion without the show. Samwell's discovery of the dragonsteel mentioned in the Annals is key. A higher echelon of weapon would make sense for a higher echelon of foe. The Others Old Nan describes seem to be mainly defeated by Honor itself: the LH, the Wall being only as strong as the men who hold it... not an oil lamp and a dragonglass dagger. So I think this conjures an image of a foe greater than we've seen. We've also yet to glimpse Ice Spiders, though they are mentioned by both wetnurses and the Annals.

It would seem a 700ft tall wall of Ice is overkill when dealing with these grunts, who as long as you don't carry them through a gate on a makeshift gurney, will never pass the Wall - and a small handful of field commanders, who will melt once a dragonglass-tipped arrow is loosed.

So I think the height of the Wall itself also gives credence to our suspicion. Building the Wall higher and higher every year makes sense when the NW is dealing with Ancient/Original Others who are harried by fire and dragonglass but not killed by them, and who ride or hunt with Ice Spiders.

BC has stated the Wall may grow of it's own accord, and I think that is a really cool idea and would love it if that were the case, but we've yet to read any proof of that. What we have read is that the Builders maintain the Wall, check for cracks in the Ice and repair them. And, that black brothers walking the top of the Wall pour gravel over the walkway to improve footing, and that this gravel freezes over, then more is poured on top. This - over the course of thousands of years - builds the Wall higher. Add to that men and a LC conscious of a more formidable foe, and you have the makings of a Night's Watch that makes a conscious effort to raise the Wall as high as possible, whenever they are not fighting Others.

In writing this I wonder why the Wall has only recently been so undermanned and neglected. It began long before Robert's Rebellion, but long after (I assume) Alysanne's visit and the New Gift. It may be that once the last dragons died, Targaryen monarchs no longer had the spiritual prowess with which to make wise decisions regarding their northern border. I only say this for lack of another significant development between Alysanne's visit and Robert's Rebellion, rather than firmly believing it... lol

[Voice]

 

It rather depends who knows what.

Even if Ned knows or suspects that Jon is going to be dangerous [and I'm having a hard time seeing any evidence of such knowledge then or later] then the promise might then go beyond protecting Jon from outsiders, but promising not to destroy him even if it will lead to trouble in the future. I certainly don't see it as a broken promise to sacrifice Jon.

 

Hmm. The website's acting funny right now, but I'll try to post anyway...

When it comes to the Promise, I must say, the popular view makes a lot more sense than some of the more heretically-nuanced theories. Let's briefly assume Rhaegar was right; he WILL be the sire of tPtwP. He has Aegon, but isn't really feeling that certain je ne sais quoi, and realizes he needs a wolfmaid ;) and fathers the Prince that was Promised with her. She dies shortly after Ned promises to foster the Prince that was Promised at Winterfell.

If he really was/is tPtwP, and Ned brought the hero meant to deliver the world from darkness - to the place where Winter-fell, of all places - wouldn't this be a very likely and timely reason for the sudden re-emergence of white walkers from the North? Each side setting up their Cyvasse pieces...

[MaesterSam]

Arya rode as far ahead of the wagons as she dared, so she wouldn’t have to hear the little girl crying or listen to the woman whisper, “Please.” She remembered a story Old Nan had told once, about a man imprisoned in a dark castle by evil giants. He was very brave and smart and he tricked the giants and escaped... but no sooner was he outside the castle than the Others took him, and drank his hot red blood. Now she knew how he must have felt.

Not sure if this is relevant, but we spend a lot of time interpreting Bran's memories of Old Nan's stories, and I just came across this one, remembered by Arya in aCoK. As always, of course, Old Nan's stories need to be taken with a grain of salt, but nevertheless it might be worth taking a look at? I find it interesting that a] giants would have a castle (unless they imprisoned him in his own castle, or one they had won from the First Men? I remember no such thing from the WB), and b] that apparently Others are around while men are also warring with giants. I had always thought that the First Men eliminated most of the giants from their lands, and then the long night happened much later.

There is also a bit of a parallel to Bran's situation with the wights outside the cave, ready to drink the hot red blood of anyone who makes their way out..

[Matthew.]

In writing this I wonder why the Wall has only recently been so undermanned and neglected. It began long before Robert's Rebellion, but long after (I assume) Alysanne's visit and the New Gift.

This is something I've been curious about. In the overall history of the Wall, Alysanne's visit really wasn't all that long ago, so even though it seems like the NW has undergone a long, slow decline, it actually may have gone downhill quite rapidly. I mean, I'm sure it wasn't what it once was when Alysanne visited, but it clearly also wasn't the pathetic shell that it is in modern Westeros, since she was still impressed by the men of the NW.

I'm sure it's going down extreme crackpot territory, but between the sad state of the modern Watch, and Samwell seeming to have trouble finding as much information as he expected (especially about the Others) in the Wall's library, I wonder about the sort of LC that BR was--was the Watch worse off for his leadership? Did he steal away with certain texts of interest before he went missing?

[Black Crow]

When Jon meets them in Storm of Swords he is disappointed by how they don't match Old Nan's stories: In Old Nan’s stories, giants were outsized men who lived in colossal castles, fought with huge swords, and walked about in boots a boy could hide in.

That's consistent with the story remembered Arya, even though we don't actually hear the stories he did, so I'd say there are two possibilities with these stories about giants. The first and most obvious is that Old Nan was simply making things up and exaggerating, but there is another possibility coming out of the World Book and the suggestion that the Maze-Builders were taller than ordinary people and that therefore there may be a confusion between the hairy giants and the maze-building giants

[Black Crow]

Honestly, I think there's plenty of material to create this suspicion without the show. Samwell's discovery of the dragonsteel mentioned in the Annals is key. A higher echelon of weapon would make sense for a higher echelon of foe. The Others Old Nan describes seem to be mainly defeated by Honor itself: the LH, the Wall being only as strong as the men who hold it... not an oil lamp and a dragonglass dagger. So I think this conjures an image of a foe greater than we've seen. We've also yet to glimpse Ice Spiders, though they are mentioned by both wetnurses and the Annals.

It would seem a 700ft tall wall of Ice is overkill when dealing with these grunts, who as long as you don't carry them through a gate on a makeshift gurney, will never pass the Wall - and a small handful of field commanders, who will melt once a dragonglass-tipped arrow is loosed.

So I think the height of the Wall itself also gives credence to our suspicion. Building the Wall higher and higher every year makes sense when the NW is dealing with Ancient/Original Others who are harried by fire and dragonglass but not killed by them, and who ride or hunt with Ice Spiders.

BC has stated the Wall may grow of it's own accord, and I think that is a really cool idea and would love it if that were the case, but we've yet to read any proof of that. What we have read is that the Builders maintain the Wall, check for cracks in the Ice and repair them. And, that black brothers walking the top of the Wall pour gravel over the walkway to improve footing, and that this gravel freezes over, then more is poured on top. This - over the course of thousands of years - builds the Wall higher. Add to that men and a LC conscious of a more formidable foe, and you have the makings of a Night's Watch that makes a conscious effort to raise the Wall as high as possible, whenever they are not fighting Others.

In writing this I wonder why the Wall has only recently been so undermanned and neglected. It began long before Robert's Rebellion, but long after (I assume) Alysanne's visit and the New Gift. It may be that once the last dragons died, Targaryen monarchs no longer had the spiritual prowess with which to make wise decisions regarding their northern border. I only say this for lack of another significant development between Alysanne's visit and Robert's Rebellion, rather than firmly believing it... lol

Its precisely for these reasons that some of us argue that the Wall isn't a conventional fortification to be manned against an attack from the North whether by the blue-eyed lot or by wildlings. Its simply too large, both in being far higher than needed and far too high to be constructed by men with or without the assistance of giants, which is why we've argued that it is a magical demarcation line which grows by itself year on year - and there's no way that can be done simply by dumping barrels of gravel.

Ygritte was the one who declared it to be evil, that there was more than ice and stone in it [implying but not saying it was underpinned by blood] and that it defends itself, while Mel also waxed about the old spells and deep magic within it.

The question of the manning is interesting. One of the other big problems both with the building of the Wall and with the manning of the Wall by the Watch is the Kings of Winter chapter in the World Book which portrays a North after the Long Night riven by bloody anarchy and quite incapable of the united effort necessary. Another is the castles. We're told that the Black Gate below the Nightfort is as old as the Wall and that the Night Fort is twice as old as Castle Black. We're not told that Castle Black is newer than the other forts.

This basic math gives us some interesting dating, because in the first place it implies that for thousands of years there were no castles and by implication no Nights Watch on the Wall, and that the Black Gate was the only crossing point between the realms. This is consistent with the picture painted in the Kings of Winter chapter. Then, allowing for a tolerable degree of inexactitude, the eventual building of Castle Black and the other castles appears to be roughly contemporary with the coming of the Andals. Hence the old heresy that the present Watch only dates from the overthrow of the Nights King by his brother and the Watch having an Andal origin. This would explain an initial rush to "colonise" the already pre-existing Wall, soon followed by a waning of enthusiasm at the realisation there was nothing out there, just stories and perhaps the occasional white walker in the woods.

[Black Crow]

I'm sure it's going down extreme crackpot territory, but between the sad state of the modern Watch, and Samwell seeming to have trouble finding as much information as he expected (especially about the Others) in the Wall's library, I wonder about the sort of LC that BR was--was the Watch worse off for his leadership? Did he steal away with certain texts of interest before he went missing?

Nah, I think the point of Sam's being unable to find something is not because the relevant texts have been lost, stolen or destroyed, but because they were never there in the first place, and that's tied in with the Craster's sons business. There is no army of the damned waiting out there in the cold and the darkness. Its a deliberately constructed chimera, just a handful of changelings creating the [very effective] illusion of one.

[MaesterSam]

It rather depends who knows what.

Even if Ned knows or suspects that Jon is going to be dangerous [and I'm having a hard time seeing any evidence of such knowledge then or later] then the promise might then go beyond protecting Jon from outsiders, but promising not to destroy him even if it will lead to trouble in the future. I certainly don't see it as a broken promise to sacrifice Jon.

Yeah, I am getting away from the sacrifice theory too. Ned's memories of Lyanna are sad and haunted, but he doesn't seem to think she lost her mind in the end or anything, which would be expected if she asked him to kill her newborn. Honorable Ned also would not likely have made that promise, no matter how much she begged.

I still firmly believe the promise was more than "hide and shelter the baby" though, both b/c Ned feels he has broken the promise and b/c Lyanna was so relieved when he agreed- even though, knowing Ned, it shouldn't have taken much convincing. I also can't get over the extreme need for secrecy - even after Robert's death. Why would anyone care about some Stark/Targ bastard with no claim to the throne? There are lots of people with Targ blood all over the place, and nobody is trying to kill them.

As for the letter, why didn't Ned go ahead and write it and just say "sorry Jon that I didn't talk about mom more. Seek out Howland Reed, he'll tell you all about her and our brief love" or something like that. Varys would get no meaningful info from this, nothing to suggest Jon was not Ned's bastard, yet Jon would get answers. Something is fishy here.

   

Hmm. The website's acting funny right now, but I'll try to post anyway...

When it comes to the Promise, I must say, the popular view makes a lot more sense than some of the more heretically-nuanced theories. Let's briefly assume Rhaegar was right; he WILL be the sire of tPtwP. He has Aegon, but isn't really feeling that certain je ne sais quoi, and realizes he needs a wolfmaid ;) and fathers the Prince that was Promised with her. She dies shortly after Ned promises to foster the Prince that was Promised at Winterfell.

If he really was/is tPtwP, and Ned brought the hero meant to deliver the world from darkness - to the place where Winter-fell, of all places - wouldn't this be a very likely and timely reason for the sudden re-emergence of white walkers from the North? Each side setting up their Cyvasse pieces...

I totally agree, this is the most straightforward explanation. However, this is GRRM we're talking about here, and straightforward is not even in his vocabulary. ;)

Rhaegar's actions simply don't make any sense. If he is indeed the one behind the Harrenhal tourney, planning to meet with the great lords of the realm to plan disposing of his father, then he screwed it up beyond belief by crowning (and later stealing) Lyanna Stark.

If he desperately HAS to have a child by Lyanna b/c the ancient prophecy is that specific, then perhaps there would have been a more diplomatic way of going about it. For example, why not hire a faceless man to kill Robert? Lyanna would then be free, and I doubt the Starks would refuse a marriage offer from the crown prince. Yes he is already married, but Elia was always sickly, it wouldn't be hard to get rid of her and make it look accidental [cruel, yes, but the way he does carry out the plan kills tens of thousands, including Elia and Robert].

Or, even if he felt he had no time for this and had to steal her now, he could have forced her to write a letter home saying she was ok and in love and would be back next year. Not ideal, but presumably not a cause for war.

Also, if the KG were indeed protecting Lyanna and the baby, a better move might have been to ship her off across the narrow sea. If saving the baby was the goal, putting it in a tower along a main road with only 3 men to protect it was a pretty terrible idea.

Barristan describes Rhaegar as, above all, "able." He is also "determined and deliberate". When he sets his mind to something, he does it, and does it well. He had been reading ancient texts since he was a child, planning out his future, training to be a warrior, had all the resources of the realm at his disposal ... and this was the best he could come up with? I don't buy it. No more than I buy a girl who is repeatedly compared to Arya running off with some hot prince. There HAS to be more to this. (IMHO)

I have a feeling the Lannisters are involved somehow. I never thought I would say this, but after reading the WB I felt truly sorry for Tywin. While he was never a 'nice guy', he loved his family, was an able fighter and a devoted husband, and worked tirelessly as Hand for the good of the realm. He was a great Hand by all accounts, yet Aerys treated him terribly. He messed around with his wife, refused to marry Rhaegar to Cersei despite her being the richest and most beautiful maid in all the seven kingdoms (and then chose the sickly Elia! not sure what happened there...), refused to let Jaime squire for Rhaegar, and then took away Tywin's heir as well. He mocked him in open court and insulted him at every opportunity. Poor Tywin!

Now, knowing Tywin, how would you expect him to react to such treatment? I imagine that, much like Doran Martell, he would take his time and devise the perfect plan for getting back at Aerys. Knowing what happened to the Reynes of Castamere, I expect this would be something pretty dramatic, ideally resulting in the end of the Targaryen line. It would be best if it could be made to look like the Targaryens deserved their end, that they brought it upon themselves. In case it failed, it would be important that the Lannisters were not seen to be involved at all.

If only there was a way to make all the other lords rise up against King Aerys.... :devil:

[Matthew.]

Nah, I think the point of Sam's being unable to find something is not because the relevant texts have been lost, stolen or destroyed, but because they were never there in the first place, and that's tied in with the Craster's sons business. There is no army of the damned waiting out there in the cold and the darkness. Its a deliberately constructed chimera, just a handful of changelings creating the [very effective] illusion of one.

I don't consider what I was proposing to be very likely, but nevertheless, I can see a possible scenario where BR has had a hand in several significant northern events-- the sudden return of the Others and wights (especially if the Others have some unrevealed link to House Stark), the serendipitous appearance of the direwolf mother near Winterfell, and the failure of the Watch.

IMHO, the reawakening of House Stark's powers is broadly symbolic of Fenrir breaking his chains, something that could fit together with the notion that the Others and wights are purposely being used to create the illusion of an invading army. BR is manufacturing something that seems like the end of the world/Ragnarok, in order to force the fulfillment of tPtwP prophecy; he's giving his PtwP a suitable threat, so that he(she) can wake dragons from stone.

I'm reminded of the scene in aGoT where MMD is performing her ritual, and Dany sees shadows dancing on the sides of the tent--most significantly, the shadow of a great wolf (ice/NK/Holly King), and the shadow of a man wreathed in flame (fire/AA/Oak King).

Edit: And just to reiterate, I consider this to be pretty unlikely, but it is a scenario with BR that I've had bouncing around in my noggin, since I consider him to be the biggest question mark in the series. Has 50 years in weirnet enlightened him, or only magnified the ruthlessness that he displayed in life? He as much as admits to Bran that he's still haunted by the ghosts of his past- the brother he loved, the brother he hated, and the woman he desired.

[MaesterSam]

When Jon meets them in Storm of Swords he is disappointed by how they don't match Old Nan's stories: In Old Nan’s stories, giants were outsized men who lived in colossal castles, fought with huge swords, and walked about in boots a boy could hide in.

That's consistent with the story remembered Arya, even though we don't actually hear the stories he did, so I'd say there are two possibilities with these stories about giants. The first and most obvious is that Old Nan was simply making things up and exaggerating, but there is another possibility coming out of the World Book and the suggestion that the Maze-Builders were taller than ordinary people and that therefore there may be a confusion between the hairy giants and the maze-building giants

oooooh I like this!! Maybe the story took place at Moat Cailin?

[superunknown5]

Not sure if this is relevant, but we spend a lot of time interpreting Bran's memories of Old Nan's stories, and I just came across this one, remembered by Arya in aCoK. As always, of course, Old Nan's stories need to be taken with a grain of salt, but nevertheless it might be worth taking a look at? I find it interesting that a] giants would have a castle (unless they imprisoned him in his own castle, or one they had won from the First Men? I remember no such thing from the WB), and b] that apparently Others are around while men are also warring with giants. I had always thought that the First Men eliminated most of the giants from their lands, and then the long night happened much later.

There is also a bit of a parallel to Bran's situation with the wights outside the cave, ready to drink the hot red blood of anyone who makes their way out..

What if dark castle = Last Hearth (sounds pretty dark to me), and evil giants = mischievous Umbers? According to the WB, the Night's King may have been an Umber.

She remembered a story Old Nan had told once, about a man imprisoned in a dark castle by evil giants. He was very brave and smart and he tricked the giants and escaped... but no sooner was he outside the castle than the Others took him, and drank his hot red blood.

Bonus crackpot/Baseless speculation: The man was Lann the Clever, who escaped imprisonment from Last Hearth just as Tyrion did from The Eyrie. Also according to the WB, he supposedly lived to be 312. Maybe he met his end at the hand of the Others. The Long Night did coincide with the Age of Heroes I believe. Of course, it's more likely he never existed in the first place.

[superunknown5]

EDIT: Double post

[aDanceWithFlagons]

What if dark castle = Last Hearth (sounds pretty dark to me), and evil giants = mischievous Umbers? According to the WB, the Night's King may have been an Umber.

Bonus crackpot: The man was Lann the Clever, who escaped imprisonment from Last Hearth just as Tyrion did from The Eyrie. Also according to the WB, he supposedly lived to be 312. Maybe he met his end at the hand of the Others. The Long Night did coincide with the Age of Heroes I believe.

Don't know about Lan the Clever, but I like the idea of the old school Umber as the evil giants with a castle. Some tale of old that has grew in the telling.

[superunknown5]

Some tale of old that has grew in the telling.

Just so.

[The Snowfyre Chorus]

Some interesting, thought-provoking ideas getting bounced around in this thread. A belated Merry Christmas to all you heretics! :cheers:

[Aetta]

Yes, but who would come looking? I'm not suggesting Ned announce his secret to the public, only to Cat (and I guess Jon- why can't he know?).

And if someone came to WF, convinced Jon is [fill in the blank] and threatens Cat's children, she would give him up in a heartbeat regardless of whether she knows/believes these claims to be true. She hates him b/c he is a living reminder that Ned was unfaithful; her finding out the truth is not a problem as long as nobody else does.

Fell out ( to sleep) last night and surely missed replies to my posts, but I see yours, so thanks...and point taken.

I don't think that Ned's reticence makes much sense as the years go on necessarily, but right after RR Ned was likely super protectitive, and he didn't know Cat so well then as he would as the years went on. That written, we don't know that Robert wouldn't come looking-he did, after all, hold his grudge against Dany and Vis years later. And other people know about Jon that are still alive (and could extort the Starks). At the very least Howland, maybe a wetnurse or whomever else the "they" was that was with Ned & Lyanna in the TOJ.

Just a chance Ned was completely unwilling to take, even with Cat.

Once Jon came of age to defend himself to some extent-or to seek the protection of the Watch-Ned was ready to tell him, and probably Cat.

But since this is Heresy and not the general board, I think I am trying to get too Plain-Jane logical about it, and I am actually enjoying the other theories on the secrecy component anyway :)