[TWOW Spoilers] Alayne I, v. 2

[Bright Blue Eyes]

They are involved, I would bet, with Aegon, and in ways that will tie into the Vale scemes. see rest of post above.

I seriously doubt that.

Especially the Tarly part. Having to march ten times the distance and starting way later rules him out.

[Modesty Lannister]

Personally I do not claim anything. I just read your discussions and still cannot understand what evidence from the text you would like to find, for example, about what is more creepy LF-Sansa or Hound-Sansa relationships. Of course, these both examples are creepy (each in its own way), but no less than Dany-Drogo relationship or Tyrion-Sansa marriage, IMHO. All these men (Lf, Hound and Tyrion) are about the same age, by the way. Tyrion is only 4-5 years younger than LF, and the Hound is about the same age as LF. Tyrion is 28 and is twice older than Sansa and the court still married them. The whole idea is creepy, what textual evidence you would like to find in the books?

It's a matter of perspective/reader's personal view, but not the textual evidence. And you keep asking the textual evidence for people's personal views of the story, that's why I thought you are just trolling. If you disagree on something particular and think the books tell us completely opposite, I presume you should provide the evidence yourself rather than keep asking others to convince you with the quotes from the text. No offense.

I agree that all these relationship are creepy, but there are readers who think Sansa/Hound is not creepy for some reason. But when asked to provide some textual support (very customary when discussing a book), they come up with nothing. One poster praises Sansa's persona of Alyane, but cannot bear to write down the name of the character who came up with that persona and claims Sansa came up with it. So, I want to know what textual support there is for that. There is nothing wrong with that. It is pretty standard on this forum. I provide textual support for my claims all the time.

[Colonel Green]

Shadrich and a couple of accomplices will abduct Sansa to Gulltown...They'll have to be very lucky or very good to be able to even reach Gulltown (approx 400 miles from the Gates of the Moon) and alot can happen in 1 to 2 weeks...If in fact they do make it to Gulltown they'll have a ready number of ships for them to take passage as there is an embargo on food export. They'll want a ship leaving port quickly...Guess what they find one willing to take them to Maidenpool it is Titan's Daughter who already has a passanger that was forced to quickly leave the relatively safe confines of Braavos (need I say who)...Upon reaching Maidenpool the little band is hunted and make for Quiet Isle all the while having an elusive pursuer following them....Need I go on?

No, because that will never happen. Word of any abduction of Sansa would reach Gulltown by raven well before anybody arrived there. The port would be tightly sealed.

well he did. He worked with them to kill Joffrey and they know he has Sansa. Their plan for Willas to marry her may well still be active since I do not believe for one minute there is any intent for Sansa to marry Harry. If they intend for Sansa to marry Willas, no doubt they plan for Margery to marry Aegon with the guarantee of backing from Willas who would have, the presumed only living heir of Robb by his side.

There is just the pesky matter of a child king to delegitimize first...and that is well under way.

If the Tyrells were planning to turn on the Lannisters in favour of Aegon there wouldn't be any need for all this silliness in the city, seeing as the Tyrells completely control it. There is no "grand Tyrell conspiracy". Their actions are not those of people playing some kind of long game.

The Tyrells are not idiots. They know the Lannister deal died with Tywin. Their main man Tarly being sent to fight Aegon, followed by news Aegon had taken taken Storms End by stealth should be a clear signal to people that Tarly negotiated with Aegon.

Tarly was sent in the epilogue. Storm's End's fall was revealed in an Arianne sample chapter that was originally meant to occur before the epilogue.

[Hippocras]

I seriously doubt that.

Especially the Tarly part. Having to march ten times the distance and starting way later rules him out.

Doubt what about Tarly?

[Colonel Green]

Doubt what about Tarly?

Tarly would not even have left the city, or gotten his assignment to relieve Storm's End, before it fell. Ergo, he did not negotiate with anybody.

[Hippocras]

No, because that will never happen. Word of any abduction of Sansa would reach Gulltown by raven well before anybody arrived there. The port would be tightly sealed.

If the Tyrells were planning to turn on the Lannisters in favour of Aegon there wouldn't be any need for all this silliness in the city, seeing as the Tyrells completely control it. There is no "grand Tyrell conspiracy". Their actions are not those of people playing some kind of long game.

Tarly was sent in the epilogue. Storm's End's fall was revealed in an Arianne sample chapter that was originally meant to occur before the epilogue.

In DWD, Margery had not had her trial yet, and Aegon had not landed. The silliness in KL is the Lannister alliance cracking apart. The facade of alliance needs to be preserved until Cersei's trial is over or her secret gets out by other means, because that will be the basis for their next moves. Until it happens, they need to pretend to be onside with the Lannisters. They are not though.

[Colonel Green]

In DWD, Margery had not had her trial yet, and Aegon had not landed. The silliness in KL is the Lannister alliance cracking apart. The facade of alliance needs to be preserved until Cersei's trial is over or her secret gets out by other means, because that will be the basis for their next moves. Until it happens, they need to pretend to be onside with the Lannisters.

Why, precisely?

[Hippocras]

Why, precisely?

Because Aegon had not arrived yet, and because they are useless to Aegon if they are not in control in KL. Their control of KL depends on their feined alliance with the Lannisters, which has been bullshit from its inception - or they never would have backed Renly.

If they conteol KL they can simply let Aegon walk in, if he does so by their terms.

[Colonel Green]

Because Aegon had not arrived yet, and because they are useless to Aegon if they are not in control in KL. Their control of KL depends on their feined alliance with the Lannisters, which has been bullshit from its inception - or they never would have backed Renly.

If they conteol KL they can simply let Aegon walk in, if he does so by their terms.

No, their control of King's Landing does not depend on their feined alliance. They have more than four times the men in the field as the Lannisters, and there are no significant Lannister troops near the capital, whereas two Tyrell armies are there. Their control of King's Landing rests on naked force of arms. If they wanted to seize complete control in Aegon's name, they could do so easily.

If anything, their feined alliance with the Lannisters gives the Lannisters much more power than they would otherwise have.

[Hippocras]

No, their control of King's Landing does not depend on their feined alliance. They have more than four times the men in the field as the Lannisters, and there are no significant Lannister troops near the capital, whereas two Tyrell armies are there. Their control of King's Landing rests on naked force of arms. If they wanted to seize complete control in Aegon's name, they could do so easily.

If anything, their feined alliance with the Lannisters gives the Lannisters much more power than they would otherwise have.

If they simply staged a coup before Tommen was proven illegitimate it would simply cause chaos, not create smooth passage for Aegon to take over. The circumstances matter a great deal. Right now their legitimacy comes from Tommen, until he is shown to be illegitimate.

[Newstar]

It jumped out at me that Sansa thought of Sweetrobin as "little fool": "You are such a little fool." The phrase jumped out at me, so I wondered where it had been used before. Lannisters use it a few times (Jaime once, Tyrion in relation to both himself and others, etc.). Interestingly, the character who says "little fool" the most is Cersei, most memorably here:

She leaned close. "You little fool. Tears are not a woman's only weapon. You've got another one between your legs, and you'd best learn to use it. You'll find men use their swords freely enough. Both kinds of swords."

Given that Sansa seems to be well on her way to taking Cersei's advice, I wonder if it's a coincidence.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

No, their control of King's Landing does not depend on their feined alliance. They have more than four times the men in the field as the Lannisters, and there are no significant Lannister troops near the capital, whereas two Tyrell armies are there. Their control of King's Landing rests on naked force of arms. If they wanted to seize complete control in Aegon's name, they could do so easily.

If anything, their feined alliance with the Lannisters gives the Lannisters much more power than they would otherwise have.

Make that twenty times. Maybe thirty, depending on how many men they already discharged or lost in the Battle of the Blackwater.

[Hippocras]

It jumped out at me that Sansa thought of Sweetrobin as "little fool": "You are such a little fool." The phrase jumped out at me, so I wondered where it had been used before. Lannisters use it a few times (Jaime once, Tyrion in relation to both himself and others, etc.). Interestingly, the character who says "little fool" the most is Cersei, most memorably here:

She leaned close. "You little fool. Tears are not a woman's only weapon. You've got another one between your legs, and you'd best learn to use it. You'll find men use their swords freely enough. Both kinds of swords."

Given that Sansa seems to be well on her way to taking Cersei's advice, I wonder if it's a coincidence.

interesting.

[Hippocras]

Make that twenty times. Maybe thirty, depending on how many men they already discharged or lost in the Battle of the Blackwater.

numbers are irrelevant without legitimacy.

[Colonel Green]

numbers are irrelevant without legitimacy.

The Tyrells already backed Renly, who had no legitimacy. The idea that they need Tommen to be declared illegitimate (by the Faith?) is nonsense, since they did not need that to back to the overthrow of Joffrey.

Moreover, I'm pretty sure "legitimacy" is not some magic wand, otherwise Stannis would be the undisputed rightful king.

[Lord Damian]

It jumped out at me that Sansa thought of Sweetrobin as "little fool": "You are such a little fool." The phrase jumped out at me, so I wondered where it had been used before. Lannisters use it a few times (Jaime once, Tyrion in relation to both himself and others, etc.). Interestingly, the character who says "little fool" the most is Cersei, most memorably here:

She leaned close. "You little fool. Tears are not a woman's only weapon. You've got another one between your legs, and you'd best learn to use it. You'll find men use their swords freely enough. Both kinds of swords."

Given that Sansa seems to be well on her way to taking Cersei's advice, I wonder if it's a coincidence.

She is not free to use it as Cersei has. Sansa's virginity is crucial to her potential annulment and is keeping Littlefinger at bay at the same time.

[Le Cygne]

Yes, this is one of the main reasons why LF's plans are doomed.

But that does not contradict with the fact that LF designed many of his schemes with the basic assumption that the Lannisters/Tyrells would remain strong long enough for him to kill all the opposition to him.

Of course, he told the Small Council he would woo Lysa to bring the Vale to the Lannister's. That wasn't his true purpose of course, but now the Lannister's have diminished in power thanks mainly to Cersei and he doesn't know it yet.

I just gotta say; HA HA! Littlefinger.

Good points.

Also LF doesn't know this, Cersei seemed fine with the LD taking SR:

No, Cersei decided. If truth be told, Littlefinger had been more use at court. He had a gift for finding gold, and never coughed. "Lord Orton has convinced me. Maester Pycelle, instruct these Lords Declarant that no harm must come to Petyr. Elsewise, the crown is content with whatever dispositions they might make for the governance of the Vale during Robert Arryn's minority."

[Lord Damian]

Good points.

Also LF doesn't know this, Cersei seemed fine with the LD taking SR:

Lots of events are about to unfold that may change the Vale dynamic dramatically, The Battle of Winterfell and the Return of Rickon w/ShaggyDog, Lady Stoneheart and the BWB, Brienne, Ser Jaime and Pod. The Eruption of Epic shit in King's Landing and the Landing of Aegon VI. The Vale seems like it is about to be affected by everything and maybe, Allayne, Harry and the others will get sucked in one direction or another.

[Harry the Hair]

Good points.

Also LF doesn't know this, Cersei seemed fine with the LD taking SR:

No, Cersei decided. If truth be told, Littlefinger had been more use at court. He had a gift for finding gold, and never coughed. "Lord Orton has convinced me. Maester Pycelle, instruct these Lords Declarant that no harm must come to Petyr. Elsewise, the crown is content with whatever dispositions they might make for the governance of the Vale during Robert Arryn's minority."

I think LF knows this, he just threw empty threats at the LD with the goal of creating doubt and discord between them. He knows that he is a disposable commodity and the only reason he got as far as he has now is because they constantly underestimate him which allows him to slip right under their radar. He can't expect an already exhausted KL army start yet another war just to reunite him with his beloved step-son.

[Hippocras]

The Tyrells already backed Renly, who had no legitimacy. The idea that they need Tommen to be declared illegitimate (by the Faith?) is nonsense, since they did not need that to back to the overthrow of Joffrey.

Moreover, I'm pretty sure "legitimacy" is not some magic wand, otherwise Stannis would be the undisputed rightful king.

They seem to have learned their lesson since then, and even if their instinct was to ignore legitimacy issues, they have been working with LF since the moment he convinced them to jump to the Lannisters and he knows better.

LF visited them to negotiate an alliance after Renly died. While there, he both convinced them to side with Joffrey, and simultaneously convinced them Joffrey was a horror and would need to die by spreading truths about him. It is very likely that the plan to kill Joffrey was hatched before there was even a plan to propose the marriage in the fist place (even if Margery herself did not know of this).

So LF persuaded them to play his way basically, knowing what they wanted: to make Margery queen. But all along, LF has known Varys's secret. Varys only has one secret of importance of his OWN (not other people's secrets) and that is his goal, which seems to be Aegon. So LF knows about Aegon and has known for a long time.

In other words, even if Aegon is not LF's end game, LF's end game takes Aegon into account.

LF has no power base of his own, so needs a powerful family or person at all times as basically a patron to prop up his position. It therefore stands to reason that the family in power who he needs to prop up his own power is going to be a factor in his plan until the moment he has another powerful family or person to sustain him. That is the Tyrells ATM, who he has been helping bring down the Lannisters. He is not done with the Tyrells, because he has not secured his next patron.

But his end game is not the Tyrells. Therefore he will use the Tyrells not to help him reach hos final goal, but to help him with the next step which involves Aegon.