[TWOW Spoilers] Alayne I, v. 2

[earth127]

The vale united might stand against the Lannisters, littlefinger was telling them the vale wouldn't be united against him and he has outside support (Lannisters/Tyrell)

[Mithras]

The vale united might stand against the Lannisters, littlefinger was telling them the vale wouldn't be united against him and he has outside support (Lannisters/Tyrell)

There is no "united Vale". Not while LF was dealing with the Lords Declarant and certainly not now.

[LongRider]

At the end of Dance, didn't the Lannisters have their troops diminished and spread out? IIRC it was reported that 1000 were lost with Loras's assault on wherever he went. Dragonstone? Plus the Aurane Waters took off with the new ships and the Ironborn are threatening the realm.

So when LF was telling the LD that the Lannisters they had the troops, at the time that may have been true, but with the recent events that are unfolding; the arrest of the Queens and the murders of Kevan and Pycelle, that will no longer be true.

That's getting ahead of the gift chapter, and all of this is not known to LF and the Vale yet tho.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

At the end of Dance, didn't the Lannisters have their troops diminished and spread out? IIRC it was reported that 1000 were lost with Loras's assault on wherever he went. Dragonstone? Plus the Aurane Waters took off with the new ships and the Ironborn are threatening the realm.

Yes, all 3,000 of them.

[Mithras]

At the end of Dance, didn't the Lannisters have their troops diminished and spread out? IIRC it was reported that 1000 were lost with Loras's assault on wherever he went. Dragonstone? Plus the Aurane Waters took off with the new ships and the Ironborn are threatening the realm.

So when LF was telling the LD that the Lannisters they had the troops, at the time that may have been true, but with the recent events that are unfolding; the arrest of the Queens and the murders of Kevan and Pycelle, that will no longer be true.

That's getting ahead of the gift chapter, and all of this is not know to LF and the Vale yet tho.

Yes, this is one of the main reasons why LF's plans are doomed.

But that does not contradict with the fact that LF designed many of his schemes with the basic assumption that the Lannisters/Tyrells would remain strong long enough for him to kill all the opposition to him.

Hell, when LF left the KL, he had set in motion a perfect plan to kill Joffrey and frame Tyrion for it, which would also free Sansa's hand. He should have assumed that with Tywin at the wheel in the KL, none would dare LF's authority at the Vale. The siege of the Lords Declarant would not even happen if Tywin was alive.

Now, LF is doing his best to modify his schemes but it will blow on him at one point.

[LongRider]

Yes, this is one of the main reasons why LF's plans are doomed.

But that does not contradict with the fact that LF designed many of his schemes with the basic assumption that the Lannisters/Tyrells would remain strong long enough for him to kill all the opposition to him.

Hell, when LF left the KL, he had set in motion a perfect plan to kill Joffrey and frame Tyrion for it, which would also free Sansa's hand. He should have assumed that with Tywin at the wheel in the KL, none would dare LF's authority at the Vale. The siege of the Lords Declarant would not even happen if Tywin was alive.

Now, LF is doing his best to modify his schemes but it will blow on him at one point.

Of course, he told the Small Council he would woo Lysa to bring the Vale to the Lannister's. That wasn't his true purpose of course, but now the Lannister's have diminished in power thanks mainly to Cersei and he doesn't know it yet.

I just gotta say; HA HA! Littlefinger.

[Hippocras]

why would LF be worried about Lannisters losing power? He abandoned them and hitched his wagon to the Tyrells long ago. It is their fate that matters, so Margery is a far bigger concern for him, even if on the surface his power comes via Lannisters.

The Tyrells, meanwhile, have already bwgun disengaging IMO, and I would not be at all surprised if they are now helping Aegon.

[Harry the Hair]

why would LF be worried about Lannisters losing power? He abandoned them and hitched his wagon to the Tyrells long ago. It is their fate that matters, so Margery is a far bigger concern for him, even if on the surface his power comes via Lannisters.

The Tyrells, meanwhile, have already bwgun disengaging IMO, and I would not be at all surprised if they are now helping Aegon.

I never got the vibe that he tossed his lot with the Tyrells. He ruined Sansa's betrothal to Willas and he's not particularly worried about Marge, he just mentions something about a war of 3 queens. I thought he was just using them, just like he was using the Lannisters.

I doubt the Tyrells will be proAegon since their daughter is married to Tommen, the usurper's kid.

[Gerg Sknab]

Shadrich and a couple of accomplices will abduct Sansa to Gulltown...They'll have to be very lucky or very good to be able to even reach Gulltown (approx 400 miles from the Gates of the Moon) and alot can happen in 1 to 2 weeks...If in fact they do make it to Gulltown they'll have a ready number of ships for them to take passage as there is an embargo on food export. They'll want a ship leaving port quickly...Guess what they find one willing to take them to Maidenpool it is Titan's Daughter who already has a passanger that was forced to quickly leave the relatively safe confines of Braavos (need I say who)...Upon reaching Maidenpool the little band is hunted and make for Quiet Isle all the while having an elusive pursuer following them....Need I go on?

[Bright Blue Eyes]

Sure. How about leaving the port of Gulltown with several war galleys in hot pursuit?

[Gerg Sknab]

I never got the vibe that he tossed his lot with the Tyrells. He ruined Sansa's betrothal to Willas and he's not particularly worried about Marge, he just mentions something about a war of 3 queens. I thought he was just using them, just like he was using the Lannisters.

I doubt the Tyrells will be proAegon since their daughter is married to Tommen, the usurper's kid.

No he didn't ruin Sansa/Willas that was Tywin...And there is the Great Southern Conspircy the thing is that two of the three participants do realize the other is involved.

[Hippocras]

I never got the vibe that he tossed his lot with the Tyrells. He ruined Sansa's betrothal to Willas and he's not particularly worried about Marge, he just mentions something about a war of 3 queens. I thought he was just using them, just like he was using the Lannisters.

I doubt the Tyrells will be proAegon since their daughter is married to Tommen, the usurper's kid.

well he did. He worked with them to kill Joffrey and they know he has Sansa. Their plan for Willas to marry her may well still be active since I do not believe for one minute there is any intent for Sansa to marry Harry. If they intend for Sansa to marry Willas, no doubt they plan for Margery to marry Aegon with the guarantee of backing from Willas who would have, the presumed only living heir of Robb by his side.

There is just the pesky matter of a child king to delegitimize first...and that is well under way.

[Gerg Sknab]

Sure. How about leaving the port of Gulltown with several war galleys in hot pursuit?

Under cover of darkness giving them a twelve hour headstart. The Braavosi are better seamen than those of Westeros and at best speed can make that trip on less than a day...they'd be half way to Maidenpool before the chase began...and that is why I suggest Maidenpool rather than the long distance trip to King's Landing a snaller chance of being caught

[Bright Blue Eyes]

No he didn't ruin Sansa/Willas that was Tywin...And there is the Great Southern Conspircy the thing is that two of the three participants do realize the other is involved.

..with the information given to him by LF.

well he did. He worked with them to kill Joffrey and they know he has Sansa. Their plan for Willas to marry her may well still be active since I do not believe for one minute there is any intent for Sansa to marry Harry. If they intend for Sansa to marry Willas, no doubt they plan for Margery to marry Aegon with the guarantee of backing from Willas who would have, the presumed only living heir of Robb by his side.

There is just the pesky matter of a child king to delegitimize first...and that is well under way.

...after LF worked against them in the Sansa-Willas marriage.

Working with them in one scheme or the other doesn't mean that he has thrown in with them. Otherwise he'd still be glued to Ned Stark and the books would be vastly different.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

Under cover of darkness giving them a twelve hour headstart. The Braavosi are better seamen than those of Westeros and at best speed can make that trip on less than a day...they'd be half way to Maidenpool before the chase began...and that is why I suggest Maidenpool rather than the long distance trip to King's Landing a snaller chance of being caught

I especially love the reason for why a Braavosi merchant would risk open war with an entire region of Westeros or three.

Wait? There was a reason, or do I misremember?

[Hippocras]

..with the information given to him by LF.

...after LF worked against them in the Sansa-Willas marriage.

Working with them in one scheme or the other doesn't mean that he has thrown in with them. Otherwise he'd still be glued to Ned Stark and the books would be vastly different.

he only ever "throws in" with anyone temporarily. He ditched the Lannisters long ago, and jumped to the Tyrells. They are his currenty source of legitimacy, not the Lannisters, even if the Lannisters are on the surface. He will be hitched to that wagon as long as it is useful, and by then he hopes that Sansa will be his final play and he will ditch the Tyrells.

The Tyrells are not idiots. They know the Lannister deal died with Tywin. Their main man Tarly being sent to fight Aegon, followed by news Aegon had taken taken Storms End by stealth should be a clear signal to people that Tarly negotiated with Aegon.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

He already ditched them several times. They are not involved in his schemes in the Vale in any way.

[Hippocras]

He already ditched them several times. They are not involved in his schemes in the Vale in any way.

They are involved, I would bet, with Aegon, and in ways that will tie into the Vale scemes. see rest of post above.

[Harry the Hair]

No he didn't ruin Sansa/Willas that was Tywin...And there is the Great Southern Conspircy the thing is that two of the three participants do realize the other is involved.

He's the one who told Tywin about the secret betrothal in the first place. If he wouldn't have done that Sansa would've been Lady Tyrell by now.

Also, I have no idea what the great Southern Conspiracy is. Is it the same thing as the Northern one, except in stead of Jon you get Aegon on the IT? Yeah there's waaay too many of those.

[Gala]

No, I'm just trying to understand what are you basing your claims on in the text. So far, nothing. I do not troll. I dislike that practice immensely. Too many trolls around anyway.

Personally I do not claim anything. I just read your discussions and still cannot understand what evidence from the text you would like to find, for example, about what is more creepy LF-Sansa or Hound-Sansa relationships. Of course, these both examples are creepy (each in its own way), but no less than Dany-Drogo relationship or Tyrion-Sansa marriage, IMHO. All these men (Lf, Hound and Tyrion) are about the same age, by the way. Tyrion is only 4-5 years younger than LF, and the Hound is about the same age as LF. Tyrion is 28 and is twice older than Sansa and the court still married them. The whole idea is creepy, what textual evidence you would like to find in the books?

It's a matter of perspective/reader's personal view, but not the textual evidence. And you keep asking the textual evidence for people's personal views of the story, that's why I thought you are just trolling. If you disagree on something particular and think the books tell us completely opposite, I presume you should provide the evidence yourself rather than keep asking others to convince you with the quotes from the text. No offense.