Something odd about the PW

[Isobel Harper]

No, Pycelle testified that Tyrion swiped a few other powders and such, which was true, but he denied having any Strangler. He had only studied it at the citadel. In the middle of Storm, whatever stuff Tyrion put in Cersei's wine to give her the runs the next day was probably from Pycelle's stash.

Edit: check that, it's not quite right. When Tyrion asks if any Strangler was found in Pycelle's things, he says no, you used it all to kill the king... So Pycelle is implying that he had some and Tyrion took it, but this doesn't square with his earlier comment about being a boy at the Cit and the maesters calling it the Strangler. If he had it in his possession so recently, why would he refer to it with such a long-ago recollection?

And in fact we are in Tyrion's POV when he steals the powders from Pycelle -- it was when he sent Pycelle to the rookery to send the marriage offer to Dorne -- and it doesn't mention anything about little purple crystals.

That's where I thought I read it. Apparently I was completely wrong. :P

[SomeFremen]

Littlefinger was very involved in the kiling of Joff, no doubts here. Why ? to create chaos in KL

Lady Olenna motives had no connection with LF plan.

back in time a little

Lady Olenna must have been informed and manipulated into the (true) ideea that Joff is incontrolable, even for Margery, because he was imprevisible. She is not sure yet, she does not trust the source so she goes to SANSA, who bursts into tears saying he's a monster. From that moment on Lady Olenna is calculating the options (if Margaery marries and becomes queen...yay for her, but not under a threat like a mad king, since she was groomed to manipulate men... and he is a monster not a man).

So after considering options she decides that her Margaery must not be HIS queen and that if he should die, the Lannisters still need this alliance (we dont yet have information if she took cautions for any problems later with the Lannisters), but it's posible she was tricked by LF into choosing this, getting a queen of a manipulative boy, which because of Cercei will soon turn to Baelish chaos

[John Suburbs]

Sorry, disagree. Lady Olenna is not afraid of Joffrey in the least. This is a woman who lived through the Mad King years when high lords and ladies were being roasted alive with wildfire. A few beatings of a highborn girl by the kingsguard? That's kid stuff. Lady O has probably ordered worse than that in her own dungeons.

Also, there is no textual support for the idea that either Lady O or Margaery are concerned about Joffrey or that Joffrey is in any way hostile to Margaery. Lady O's reaction when Sansa opens up about Joffrey? "Oh, that's a pity." Then we have Margaery a few chapters later: Sansa say's he'll hurt her, and Margaery flips it off with "no he won't, I have Loras to protect me."

Sure, they could be faking their real concern, but now you are making an assumption based on your own visceral reaction to Joffrey and ascribing it to them; basically, "I hate Joffrey so everyone else must too, therefore they must be covering up." Why put up all this pretense just for Sansa's benefit? If they want to draw her into their sphere, it would be much better to open up to her, form a common bond, and then start plotting her escape directly, rather than through Littlefinger.

And Joffrey is most certainly not uncontrollable or "imprevisible" (did you mean unpredictable?). He is probably the most easily manipulated character in the book as long as you know how to play to his arrogance and sense of entitlement. Look at how Lifflefinger does it. Margaery should have no problem teasing this young boy into doing whatever she wants, for a little while at least.

And again, I put forward the question: if Lady Olenna wants to save Margaery from Joffrey, why do so before the marriage is consummated? In fact, why not wait until you have a few Tyrell heirs lined up for the Iron Throne? You'll get those much quicker through Joffrey than Tommen and you don't have to take the risk of killing him at a public event.

Do you think Lady O was afraid Joffrey was going to close the door to the wedding chamber that night and then gut Margaery on the spot? Do you think Lady O could not abide the thought of maiden Margaery being violated by that little pervert that she would risk her entire house -- nearly all of her family members, hear seat and a 7,000-year dynasty (mostly as stewards, grant you) -- to commit regicide? This is the same woman who already married her off to a known gay man and then a 9-year-old boy.

To think that Lady O was driven to such an extreme act because of her overwhelming fear of what was only a remote future possibility is a complete reimagining of the character on the page. Lady Olenna is a hard-bitten, clear-eyed political realist who is acutely aware of the enormous shift in the balance of power that has just taken place in Westeros, and how a Lannister heir in Winterfell would allow Casterly Rock to eclipse Highgarden as the preeminent seat in the land. By making her oblivious to all that and concerned only about Margy's precious maidenhead, you change her from power-broker and savvy player of the Game of Thrones into a frightened old biddy.

[LordQorgyle]

Why would Tywin give Sansa to the Tyrells and not Lancel, Martyn or Tywin Frey?

[The Ned's Little Girl]

Sorry, disagree. Lady Olenna is not afraid of Joffrey in the least. This is a woman who lived through the Mad King years when high lords and ladies were being roasted alive with wildfire. A few beatings of a highborn girl by the kingsguard? That's kid stuff. (1) Lady O has probably ordered worse than that in her own dungeons.

Also, there is no textual support for the idea that either Lady O or Margaery are concerned about Joffrey or that Joffrey is in any way hostile to Margaery. Lady O's reaction when Sansa opens up about Joffrey? "Oh, that's a pity." Then we have Margaery a few chapters later: Sansa say's he'll hurt her, and (2)Margaery flips it off with "no he won't, I have Loras to protect me."

Sure, they could be faking their real concern, but now you are making an assumption based on your own visceral reaction to Joffrey and ascribing it to them; basically, "I hate Joffrey so everyone else must too, therefore they must be covering up." Why put up all this pretense just for Sansa's benefit? If they want to draw her into their sphere, it would be much better to open up to her, form a common bond, and (3) then start plotting her escape directly, rather than through Littlefinger.

And Joffrey is most certainly not uncontrollable or "imprevisible" (did you mean unpredictable?). He is probably the most easily manipulated character in the book as long as you know how to play to his arrogance and sense of entitlement. Look at how Lifflefinger does it. Margaery should have no problem teasing this young boy into doing whatever she wants, for a little while at least.

And again, I put forward the question: if Lady Olenna wants to save Margaery from Joffrey, (4) why do so before the marriage is consummated? In fact, why not wait until you have a few Tyrell heirs lined up for the Iron Throne? You'll get those much quicker through Joffrey than Tommen and you don't have to take the risk of killing him at a public event.

Do you think Lady O was afraid Joffrey was going to close the door to the wedding chamber that night and then gut Margaery on the spot? Do you think Lady O could not abide the thought of maiden Margaery being violated by that little pervert that she would risk her entire house -- nearly all of her family members, hear seat and a 7,000-year dynasty (mostly as stewards, grant you) -- to commit regicide? This is the same woman who already married her off to a known gay man and then a 9-year-old boy.

To think that Lady O was driven to such an extreme act because of her overwhelming fear of what was only a remote future possibility is a complete reimagining of the character on the page. (5) Lady Olenna is a hard-bitten, clear-eyed political realist who is acutely aware of the enormous shift in the balance of power that has just taken place in Westeros, and how a Lannister heir in Winterfell would allow Casterly Rock to eclipse Highgarden as the preeminent seat in the land. By making her oblivious to all that and concerned only about Margy's precious maidenhead, you change her from power-broker and savvy player of the Game of Thrones into a frightened old biddy.

(1) There's no way to know one way or another what Lady Olenna has ordered to happen in her own dungeons but I'd be willing to bet money that it didn't involve a noble, highborn girl being beaten there. Peasants, yeah - not nobility.

(2) What was Margeary supposed to say? "Oh, it's okay - my grandmother is going to poison Joffrey at our wedding so I don't have anything to worry about really." Of course she is going to act as if everything is all right and she's a radiant bride. Anything else would be really suspicious.

(3) The Tyrells DID plot Sansa's escape directly; by betrothing her to Willas. Littlefinger had nothing to do with that, which is why he put a stop to it as soon as he found out. LF's plan to abscond with Sansa was something he came up with all by his lonesome. Just because Lady O and LF were plotting together to remove Joffrey doesn't mean they shared all of their plans with each other. That makes zero sense.

(4) The reason to eliminate Joffrey before consummating was to make it possible for Marge to then marry Tommen. I really doubt the Faith would allow her to do so if she had consummated with Joffrey. That would be incest.

(5) Portraying Lady O as a "frightened old biddy" is your very own strawman. I don't think anybody is ascribing her actions to being that kind of character. Everything about her plan to kill off Joffrey portrays her as a clear-headed political realist. He's understood to be unpredictable and violent, which is pretty much a guarantee of mayhem and king-slaying in the near future. But they want Marge to be queen. How to reconcile the two? Easy. Eliminate the wild card in favor of the younger, nicer brother. Two birds, one stone.

It's really the only thing that makes sense.

[Clegane'sPup]

Why would Tywin give Sansa to the Tyrells and not Lancel, Martyn or Tywin Frey?

(ASOS chapter 19)Tyrwin was not going to give Sansa to anyone. Sansa is the "key to the North" and Cersei claims Sansa is her hostage. Thing is LF brought word of a Tyrell plot to

spirit Sansa Stark off to Highgarden for a visit and there marry her to Lord Mace's son, Willis (p265pb)

Tywin launches his plan to marry Sansa to Tyrion.

Sansa is married to Tyrion chapter 28.

And LF has been working his scheme since the day Sansa stood up for Dontas

All he did was at my behest, I dared not befriend you openly. When I heard how you saved his life at Joff's tourney, I knew he would be my perfect catspaw (ASOS p839pb)

The way I see it, there is more than one plot/scheme going on at the PW. Perhaps more will be revealed in WOW.

As an aside, for those that are interested here a couple short threads related:

http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/topic/111906-chekhovs-hairnet-spoilers/#entry5886486

http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/topic/67864-sansas-hairnet/

[LordQorgyle]

I was talking, if Olenna really wanted to kill tyrion why would she think that after that Tywin would give her to Willas and not to one of Kevan or Genna heirs?

[LordQorgyle]

I was talking, if Olenna really wanted to kill tyrion why would she think that after that Tywin would give her to Willas and not to one of Kevan or Genna heirs?

[John Suburbs]

(1) There's no way to know one way or another what Lady Olenna has ordered to happen in her own dungeons but I'd be willing to bet money that it didn't involve a noble, highborn girl being beaten there. Peasants, yeah - not nobility.

(2) What was Margeary supposed to say? "Oh, it's okay - my grandmother is going to poison Joffrey at our wedding so I don't have anything to worry about really." Of course she is going to act as if everything is all right and she's a radiant bride. Anything else would be really suspicious.

(3) The Tyrells DID plot Sansa's escape directly; by betrothing her to Willas. Littlefinger had nothing to do with that, which is why he put a stop to it as soon as he found out. LF's plan to abscond with Sansa was something he came up with all by his lonesome. Just because Lady O and LF were plotting together to remove Joffrey doesn't mean they shared all of their plans with each other. That makes zero sense.

(4) The reason to eliminate Joffrey before consummating was to make it possible for Marge to then marry Tommen. I really doubt the Faith would allow her to do so if she had consummated with Joffrey. That would be incest.

(5) Portraying Lady O as a "frightened old biddy" is your very own strawman. I don't think anybody is ascribing her actions to being that kind of character. Everything about her plan to kill off Joffrey portrays her as a clear-headed political realist. He's understood to be unpredictable and violent, which is pretty much a guarantee of mayhem and king-slaying in the near future. But they want Marge to be queen. How to reconcile the two? Easy. Eliminate the wild card in favor of the younger, nicer brother. Two birds, one stone.

It's really the only thing that makes sense.

1) There is no way of knowing, and yet you are sure the Tyrell's never imprisoned or mistreated any nobility? And honestly, do you really think that after the Mad King years, where nobles were getting roasted over wildfire, that Lady O would get into a panic over a few beatings by the KG? She is made of tougher stuff than that, and so is Margaery.

2) Margy could have said "yes, I know he's a monster, but I have to marry him for the good of my house. But at the very least we can get you to safety if you'll help us. Tell no one, no one, about Willas and after I'm queen I'll make all the arrangements." See how much better that is than leaving her in the dark? If Sansa thought she was working in confidence with a sympathetic Margy and Lady O, she would never have spilled the plan to Dontos.

3) Yes, that was their initial plan, but for the reasons mentioned above, they blew it.

4) If you produce heirs from Joffrey, there is no reason to marry Tommen. The whole point of this marriage is not to find a good husband for Margy but to cement the alliance with a common heir. Once that is done, there are plenty of ways to get rid of Joffrey if and when he becomes a problem, and it can be done in private without 200 wedding guests looking on.

5) So on the one hand you see Lady O as a clear-headed political thinker who has the best interests of her house at heart, but when given the choice of removing the as yet unrealized threat to Margy or removing the very real and present danger that a Lannister heir to Winterfell presents to the Reach, she chooses Margy? Do you realize how bad it would be if Casterly Rock were suddenly able to marshal not just the strength of the Westerlands as has been the case since before the Conquest, but the Riverlands, the Neck and all of the North? Tywin could put 100,000 swords in the field at the slightest provocation, and he doesn't just march in and take over castles, he sets the whole countryside ablaze. The realm has not seen destruction on that level since the Dance of the Dragons. Plus, the north has endless supplies of wood, stone, ore, furs, farmland and ports on both coasts.

There are no two ways about it, the only way you can square Lady O killing Joffrey instead of Tyrion is she would have to be an utter fool, completely oblivious to the serious political and military situation she now finds herself in. I see a very different Lady O on the page than you do.

[Melisandre's White Pubes]

I think Tywin poisoned him. Not long before the wedding he seemed upset about Joffrey's behavior and said he'd need to teach him a "sharp lesson". He arranged the poisoning, possibly with the help of the Tyrells - "My grandson is too crazy to be king, I want Tommen to have the crown, and you don't want Margaery to be abused by Joffrey, so we'll kill him and make it look like the Stark girl is behind it."

[John Suburbs]

Unlikely. He also tells Tyrion that the boy is still young, and young boys do stupid things, like marry crofter's daughters.

Believe it or not Tywin values family above all else -- not that he loves them or anything, but that they are tools to further the aims of House Lannister. And with Tywin as Hand, there is little chance that Joffrey could do anything of real consequence to either his house or the realm.

And yet, there was Shae putting the hairnet on Sansa that morning and pining about how she's never seen pigeons fly out of a pie. And then she winds up in Tywin's bed after the trial. Coincidence?

[Tyrells]

Some people seem to forget that Joffrey wasn't the only unpredictable one involved in the situation. Loras was too. The Tyrells could not take the risk of Loras getting angry at Joffrey and killing him. That would bring the ruin to their family. What better way to avoid kingslaying accusations than to actually kill the king at a moment where no one will ever think of suspecting you?

[Clegane'sPup]

I think Tywin poisoned him. Not long before the wedding he seemed upset about Joffrey's behavior and said he'd need to teach him a "sharp lesson". He arranged the poisoning, possibly with the help of the Tyrells - "My grandson is too crazy to be king, I want Tommen to have the crown, and you don't want Margaery to be abused by Joffrey, so we'll kill him and make it look like the Stark girl is behind it."

You got anything to back that up?

[John Suburbs]

Again, though, you have Olenna ignoring the immediate and serious consequences that Tyrion's marriage to Sana presents to focus on the possibility that maybe someday Joffrey might hurt Margaery, and maybe Loras will go after Joffrey...

Poisoning the king at his own wedding in front of more than 200 guests, plus servants, guards, singers, jugglers... is probably the riskiest thing Lady Olenna could possibly do. With that many eyes, the chances of being caught are high, and the consequences are severe. It is simply inconceivable that Lady O would:

1) risk Margaery's life by poisoning the chalice that she could very well have to drink from at a time when toasts are common

2) place the health and happiness of Margy above the interests, perhaps even the very survival, of her house

and 3) push back the possibility of a royal heir at least five years, during which time anything could happen to upend the Lannister alliance and prevent Margaery from becoming Queen and then Queen Mother in her own right.

The only way you could square this is by thinking Lady Olenna is complete blind to the realities of the political earthquake that has just hit Westeros. There hasn't been this big of a power shift since before the Conquest, and all the power is now flowing to Casterly Rock, which shares an ill-defined border with the Reach for 400 leagues and is led by a lord who has no problem with not only invading rival realms but burning them to the ground.

[Clegane'sPup]

Some people seem to forget that Joffrey wasn't the only unpredictable one involved in the situation. Loras was too. The Tyrells could not take the risk of Loras getting angry at Joffrey and killing him. That would bring the ruin to their family. What better way to avoid kingslaying accusations than to actually kill the king at a moment where no one will ever think of suspecting you?

Seems to be mention of putting Marg, Joff and Loras together might mean Kingslaying.

[Tyrells]

The only way you could square this is by thinking Lady Olenna is complete blind to the realities of the political earthquake that has just hit Westeros. There hasn't been this big of a power shift since before the Conquest, and all the power is now flowing to Casterly Rock, which shares an ill-defined boarder with the Reach for 400 leagues and is led by a lord who has no problem with not only invading rival realms but burning them to the ground.

But at the moment of the PW, the Lannisters were in a position of weakness. They needed the Tyrells and their armies, not the other way around.

[John Suburbs]

But at the moment of the PW, the Lannisters were in a position of weakness. They needed the Tyrells and their armies, not the other way around.

True, but irrelevant to Lady's O's calculations. By the time of the PW, there is a healthy Lannister army in KL, although smaller than the Tyrell host. But the northern army has been defeated and Tywin is in firm control of the Riverlands -- the only piece he doesn't have is Riverrun and that is only a matter of time. Add the Neck to the mix through the Frey alliance and then the North that Tyrion would deliver as Lord of Winterfell until his son comes of age and Tywin Lannister has direct control of more than half the kingdom.

That means in a few short years, Tywin will be able to raise an army that could at least equal, if not eclipse, anything that Highgarden could summon from the Hightowers and Redwynes. Plus he has all the wood, stone, furs and other resources to either sell and make a fortune or provision for his own army, and he gets a port on the Narrow Sea to make trading that much easier with Essos.

So even if the Tyrells have the larger host at KL at the moment, Lady O is cagey enough to realize that the Lannisters are powerful enough to go toe-to-toe with them whenever Tywin gets a bug up his arse about something. And with about 300 leagues of ill-defined boundary between the Reach and the Westerlands, conflict is bound to happen. This is by far a more important consideration than whether Joffrey gives Margaery a few knocks upside the head, but only if you view Lady O as a clear-eyed player in the Game of Thrones and not a nervous old gramma who's afraid for her grandaughter.

[Pies are coming]

The reason this is seems wrong is because the Tyrells actually had nothing to do with poisoning Joffrey. It was Sansa herself that put the poison in the chalice. This is a deeply unpopular conclusion, but it is the only answer that fits with all the clues we are given in the books. The only reason most readers don't think it was Sansa is because Sansa doesn't seem to remember doing it and LF pointing out that the Tyrells might have a motive for doing this. Everything else points to Sansa.

The problem with this, I think, it's the narrative. How would GRRM reveal us that it was Sansa all along when we've been in her head for dozens, if not hundreds, of pages, without making us feel he's cheating on us? True, Sansa's POVs often hide a lot of her thoughts and motivations (if any) and can make for a rather ambiguous reading if people don't hurry to fill in the blanks. And the Unkiss could indeed be preparing the path for letting us know how Sansa has also changed another uncomfortable memory, another thing that doesn't fit her preconceptions about how the world should be - ie, she isn't a murderer even if she is. She does carry heavy blinders when she wants to.

But unless we previously have something like an Olenna POV in which she clearly thinks she has no idea who killed Joffrey, it may feel like cheating.

But Sansa wears the hairnet without knowing why, LF would never have risked telling Dontos the specifics of the plan, so how would Sansa have known the hairnet had poison in it?

She does know. When he gives her the hairnet, Dontos tells her it's "Magic. Vengeance for her father" and the chapter ends before we can know what's Sansa's response to that (like so many other instances of Sansa's POVs). If we were reading the series without ellipsis and in a third person point of view, Sansa would look like the obvious candidate for that murder.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Interesting discussion. I am open to the idea there was poison in the piece of pie placed in front of Tyrion. Cersei selected all of the servers herself and controlled to some extent the Kettleblacks, the Kingsguard, and sundry others in the castle. This is a bit suspect on her part. If poison intended for Tyrion killed Joffrey, the irony, of course, would be the continuation of Cersei's headlong plunge into ensuring the Valonquar foretelling comes to fruition. "Gold will be their shrouds."

(Hmmm. There was also the previous failed attempt on Tyrion's life by Mandon Moore to consider.) Of note is how the Tyrells insisted on controlling the food, drink, and the servers for the subsequent Tommen-Margaery wedding.

But the Ghost of High Heart told us the hairnet contained poison and Olenna had means, motive, and opportunity - and audacity. The Tyrells do not need Joffrey if they can get Tommen instead - especially if they ensure Joffrey and Margaery are wed but not bedded - so she is still 'maiden' for Tommen. Marrying Tommen makes Margaery Queen, regardless of how long it takes to have an heir. And it prevents Loras from the almost inevitable kingslaying. LF arranged the dwarf show and planned Sansa's escape for that night as well as Dontos' part in the hairnet and the escape. He was the puppetmaster. I believe Sansa to be far too naive to poison anyone at this point; she is still a suffering little pawn, struggling to survive. Also regarding the Tyrells, I don't think Lady Olenna was after Sansa 'for her claim'; that is more in line with the Lannisters and Baelish. Olenna may have truly wanted a gently bred, pious, kind, highborn girl for their beloved Willas.

So perhaps there were two poison plots afoot that night that somehow collided, as unlikely as it seems. Stranger things have happened in these books.

Sansa almost killed Joffrey by the end of AGOT. She's perfectly capable of killing someone, given the means and the opportunity.

[John Suburbs]

Again, I'll say that to maintain the fiction that LF and LO intended to kill Joffrey rather than Tyrion, you have to invent multiple plots and self-delusional POVs and a whole mess of other assumptions and suppositions that are not supported in the text.

The Tyrion/pie conspiracy is grounded in facts taken right from the text:

The time discrepancy between the Cressen/Joffrey poisonings

LF's motivation to remove Tyrion before he exposes all of LF's shady deals

LO's motivation to prevent House Lannister from achieving military parity with House Tyrell

The impossibility of anyone predicting the convoluted series of events that led to the chalice being placed exactly where it needed to be at exactly the right time to be poisoned

The simple fact that Joffrey says "It's the pie, kof, the pie..."

It's kind of like early cosmology when everyone was certain that the Earth was the center of the solar system, so they had to invent all kinds of strange forces and unsubstantiated beliefs to explain the weird orbital paths of the heavenly bodies. Once they shifted the focus to the sun, all of the planets moved in a nice orderly manner.

The only real question is whether GRRM will let us off the hook and explain definitively what happened. I think he has said we have not heard the last of the Purple Wedding, so there is hope. I'll try not to gloat, but I've taken such nasty abuse in the past over this issue that I just might have to call out a few people and say nyaah nyahh.

[Lord_Tyrell]

Nothing points to Sansa, especially since the author has said it was Olenna and Littlefinger.

Did he? Yes, they were the clear plotters behind this, but if I had to take a guess on who the direct poisoner was, it was Garlan Tyrell. He had the best access to the cup.