POLL: Who wrote the 'Pink Letter'?

[Gibzit]

So when are we getting the results?

[Tyrion The Huge]

Either Mance or Lady Dustin

[three-eyed monkey]

If Stannis' goal is to install Jon as Lord of Winterfell and thus rally the Northmen to his cause, sending an inflammatory letter to decieve Jon seems counterproductive to that goal. As you say, Jon has already rejected his offer. I don't think that deceiving Jon into deserting the NW is going to get Jon -- or the North -- in Stannis' corner.

How is it counterproductive? Jon thinks the letter came from Ramsay, not Stannis. Stannis is not going to admit he sent the letter, that would be counterproductive. If Stannis plan had gone without any hitches, which is clearly not the case considering what happened Jon, then Winterfell would have been taken and the Boltons would be dead by the time Jon arrived. So who's going to tell Jon that it was Stannis who sent the letter?

[aryagonnakill#2]

^So the guy who would not call his brother beloved because it was a lie, and demanded that Jaime Lannister be referred to as Ser Jaime Lannister not only lied writing a letter but plans on continuing to lie to his most powerful ally? Who is this Stannis you are inventing?

If we didn't have such a gap in between books this wouldn't even be up for debate, people have taken this so far out of reality because they have nothing better to do.

[three-eyed monkey]

^So the guy who would not call his brother beloved because it was a lie, and demanded that Jaime Lannister be referred to as Ser Jaime Lannister not only lied writing a letter but plans on continuing to lie to his most powerful ally? Who is this Stannis you are inventing?

If we didn't have such a gap in between books this wouldn't even be up for debate, people have taken this so far out of reality because they have nothing better to do.

The twincest letter is such a poor argument, for a number of reasons. Stannis did not have all the letters amended, he already had a pile of letters written when he said make it Ser Jaime "henceforth". He also said he didn't know if they should call Robert his beloved brother. He didn't just say "A lie. Take it out." He thought about it first and then had it taken out, as we should expect of a character who Cressen tells us is utterly unlike the impulsive Robert and Renly. Stannis is calculated in everything he does. And when you are writing a letter you want the realm to take as truthful, then the calculated thing to do is remove the content everyone and their dog knows is not true, like Robert being Stannis' "beloved" brother.

Stannis has no faith in gods and only supports R'hllor because he thinks Mel has power. Stannis also knows, or at least harbours serious doubts, about "Lightbringer" which he admits served him no better than common steel on the Blackwater, yet again he keeps up the charade. And unless you think Mel and Ser Godry, who is sworn to Stannis, went over Stannis' head to save Mance, then it is clear Stannis already deceived Jon when he burned Rattleshirt. So while we might argue the reason why Stannis amended the letter, based on these three points, I don't think we can seriously say it was because "Stannis doesn't lie", as his actions just do not support that stance.

GRRM set up a number of devices with regards to Ramsay and letters, spikey hand, appended by northern lords, writing in blood and enclosing a piece of skin when threatening etc., and could have used any one of these to clarify that the letter was from Ramsay. But he didn't. Because it's not. And I fail to see what the gap between books has to do with it.

I don't know if debate is appropriate for a thread that's just a poll? I state my argument for Stannis, including connected material like the Mance switch, along with the relevant citation in the "Stannis wrote the Pink Letter (updated)" thread, which I can't link right now. Sorry. But the main objections were those raised by you and CONSIGLIERE in this thread, both of which I obviously refute.

[Ser Eric]

I can buy pretty much everything about the "Stannis wrote the Pink letter" theory except the motive. Stannis is smart enough to know that tricking Jon into coming to Winterfell is not going to make Jon give up his vows to the Watch.

[VorianDayne]

Mance. Why would Ramsey keep using the wildling term "crow" to describe the NW? Also the letter is a little too focused on the wildling submission ceremony.

[TheLightning Lord]

Who says Mance is illiterate?

He is an accomplished musician and calls himself Abel, an anagram of Bael.

[Consigliere]

How is it counterproductive? Jon thinks the letter came from Ramsay, not Stannis. Stannis is not going to admit he sent the letter, that would be counterproductive. If Stannis plan had gone without any hitches, which is clearly not the case considering what happened Jon, then Winterfell would have been taken and the Boltons would be dead by the time Jon arrived. So who's going to tell Jon that it was Stannis who sent the letter?

Fair enough.

[aryagonnakill#2]

^It's not fair enough, its a ridiculous assertion, just like every other assertion made about everyone other than Ramsay writing the letter. There is no evidence whatsoever that Stannis knows Mance is alive, it is yet another assumption being made to make a theory work when that theory is basically nothing but assumptions, and its not just the theory about Stannis, its Mance and any other candidate as well.

The gap gives people time to overanalyze everything and make people nuts, why do you think we have theories like Euron=Dario, because people are going nuts waiting for the next book.

[The Human Abstract]

Ramsay did it.

Read pobeb's analysis of why in Theon I (TWOW). It's the best there is. It does spoil you, however, as to which party probably wins the Battle of Winterfell.

Also, I find it unlikely that any character feigning Ramsay-tude would bother with the phrase "I want my Reek". I don't believe Jon even knows who Reek is. So someone pretending to be Ramsay wouldn't even bother with this as a bit of misdirection.

[Consigliere]

^It's not fair enough, its a ridiculous assertion, just like every other assertion made about everyone other than Ramsay writing the letter. There is no evidence whatsoever that Stannis knows Mance is alive, it is yet another assumption being made to make a theory work when that theory is basically nothing but assumptions, and its not just the theory about Stannis, its Mance and any other candidate as well.

The gap gives people time to overanalyze everything and make people nuts, why do you think we have theories like Euron=Dario, because people are going nuts waiting for the next book.

I just wanted three-eyed monkey to clear something up for me - he did so and I'm happy with that. The argument has not swayed me though. I'm still firmly in the Ramsay camp.

[three-eyed monkey]

^It's not fair enough, its a ridiculous assertion, just like every other assertion made about everyone other than Ramsay writing the letter. There is no evidence whatsoever that Stannis knows Mance is alive, it is yet another assumption being made to make a theory work when that theory is basically nothing but assumptions, and its not just the theory about Stannis, its Mance and any other candidate as well.

The gap gives people time to overanalyze everything and make people nuts, why do you think we have theories like Euron=Dario, because people are going nuts waiting for the next book.

I think it is fair enough and I think it's very fair of Consigliere to say so.

That Mel went behind Stannis back to save Mance is a ridiculous assertion. Especially in light of Mance saying it was the sagely council Jon gave Stannis that saved him. That advice was that the laws of men end at the Wall, hence the burning taking place north of the Wall. If you read the burning scene Rattleshirt says "they" in reference to the people who orchestrated the switch. Ser Godry, sworn to Stannis, then yanks on the rope and cuts off the rest of the sentence. I don't think Ser Godry would be in on it unless Stannis was. Stannis knew the value of Mance, and tells Jon as much. What motive did Mel have to save Mance behind Stannis back? None, unless you want to make some ridiculous assertion that is not supported or even hinted at in the books.

As far as I can see there are no assumptions in the Stannis theory. If you want to be more specific as to what all these assumptions are then I'm happy to debate them. What the theory is based on is the following. Stannis has the means. He has the opportunity. He has the motive, which is repeatedly stated in the books. He has Theon and even repeats what Theon says to him almost word for word in the letter. He knows Mance is alive. He repeatedly calls Val a wildling princess, despite Jon telling him that she is no princess. He forewarns Massey about rumours of his death. He is capable of deception, as seen with R'hllor and Lightbringer And Rattleshirt. So where are the assumptions?

But to flip it over, explain why Ramsay would write a letter informing Jon that Arya, the key to his claim on Winterfell, had escaped him. Even if Ramsay is not the smartest, I doubt Roose would be so foolish as to allow it. It's six hundred miles to Castle Black, Theon and fArya are both frail, and there is heavy snow. Why would Ramsay, who is known for hunting women through the woods, turn to harshly worded letters?

Even if he did write the letter, why not send Jon a piece of skin similar to the piece of prince he sent Asha? If he wanted to bring his authority to bear why not make it from Roose, the crown's Warden of the North, and why not get the northern lords to sign too? And if GRRM meant it to be clear that Ramsay wrote the letter, then why not make it clear using previous set-up like Ramsay's spikey hand, etc. You see, I think he is using the set-up because it is conspicuous in it's absence. I've read the arguments that assume he was in a fit of rage, he was in a hurry, or Roose was dead, but I don't find those assertions to be convincing.

We can differ in opinion as to the author of the letter, but to dismiss the Stannis theory as a bunch of assumptions and ridiculous assertions is simply not accurate.

[three-eyed monkey]

I can buy pretty much everything about the "Stannis wrote the Pink letter" theory except the motive. Stannis is smart enough to know that tricking Jon into coming to Winterfell is not going to make Jon give up his vows to the Watch.

By going to Winterfell, Jon would have forsaken his vows. As an oathbreaker his life would be forfeit by the laws of the seven kingdoms, unless he backed a king who would pardon him.

[Night'sQueen]

I think it was Mance, but not ruling out the possibility of Stannis. I absolutely do not think it was Ramsay.

^It's not fair enough, its a ridiculous assertion, just like every other assertion made about everyone other than Ramsay writing the letter. There is no evidence whatsoever that Stannis knows Mance is alive, it is yet another assumption being made to make a theory work when that theory is basically nothing but assumptions, and its not just the theory about Stannis, its Mance and any other candidate as well.

The gap gives people time to overanalyze everything and make people nuts, why do you think we have theories like Euron=Dario, because people are going nuts waiting for the next book.

As to the first bolded part, are there any previous instances of Melisandre intentionally deceiving Stannis? I mean, I think she deceives him inadvertently because she is made of wrongness, but any other examples like this?

To the second part, hell yes there's a lot of nonsense being thrown about while everyone waits, but I don't think this is the case here. The language of the letter is too inconsistent with Ramsay.

[Lady Dyanna]

The Stannis theory depends on input from Theon. (I want my bride. I want my Reek.) However, as Theon is Stannis' captive, I don't think he's in a position to write the letter and send a raven without his captor's knowledge/permission/instruction.

Stannis has the means, opportunity, and unlike the other candidates he has clearly stated his motive several times in ASoS and ADwD. He wants Jon as Lord of Winterfell to rally the North to his cause. Jon has refused the offer several times, but Stannis is not adverse to trying a different hawk if need be. Readers who think the letter is too out of character for Stannis are seriously misreading his character.

I agree that under what appear to be Theon's current circumstances it would be difficult for him to write the letter independently. However, that does not negate the possibility of him having written it under the direction of, or with the knowledge of Stannis.

In addition, the timeline at that point is pretty wonky. The letter arrived at CB at the end of aDwD before it was probably written, which most probably after the time of the Theon sample chapter at the beginning of WoW. Who knows for sure exactly what position Theon might be in at the time letter was sent.

[Lady Blizzardborn]

Replied!

Aemon's own steward is yet another example of someone who came to the Watch grown or nearly grown and thus would not have had the time or opportunity to learn. Do you think Mance as a child was treated like an adult member of the Watch with a full schedule? There is plenty of opportunity for him to have learned all kinds of things including reading, 'riting, and ravening. No, there's no evidence that he did, but there's also no evidence that he didn't. Like many things with this series, we'll have to wait and see.

And Mance is not some random NW guy. He and LC Osric Stark are the ONLY known people who literally grew up at the Wall. Random NW guy was not included as a key character, in a key location, at a key point in the series.

Why would Mance want Jon at Winterfell? We don't know yet. Could have something to do with Stannis, or Roose, or Ramsay, or something found in Lyanna's tomb. Quite frankly we don't know why ANYONE who wrote the letter did it for certain (though if it was Ramsay we have a pretty good idea). Once again, we have to wait and see.

No, if he were perfect at copying Ramsay's style the letter wouldn't have any clues that it might not have come from Ramsay, like use of the word crows for members of the Night's Watch. The mention of Val would be either for flavor, or because Mance suspects some kind of connection between Jon and Val.

Do me a favor, quote me the text that indicates the people at Winterfell even know that all of the spearwives helped Theon and fArya escape. It's entirely possible that they managed to cover it up, or claim that it was one or two with some crazy scheme and the rest knew nothing about it.

Loads of people in Westeros who are capable to the same extent that BR and Mance are? Name them. And they have to combine the intelligence, the instinct, the charisma, the fighting ability, the gift for strategy, and the ability to see the bigger picture that so many in Westeros miss. Tywin Lannister is the only person I can think of who comes close in the strategy and intelligence departments but he had no charisma. He led by fear rather than inspiration or respect.

The point about Rhaegar is that some people seem to have the silly idea that Mance actually IS Rhaegar. Descent from Bloodraven makes far more sense for any Targ-ness that Mance possesses than him being a guy we know is dead and looks nothing like him anyway. GRRM is very deliberate with descriptions. There is a reason only Mance and Bloodraven are described with the exact combination of smoke and scarlet. And there's a reason for the raven wings on Mance's helm. There's also a reason why it was red silk put in his black cloak, and that the silk was from Asshai (a known center of magic). Look for more on the "tenuous at best" connection in TWoW.

Uh, yes, I do have a reason. You not understanding the reason doesn't negate it. Stannis' character and history suggest that he would not have burned one man in place of another, and let a condemned criminal go free. For crying out loud Davos saved his life and the lives of everyone else at Storm's End and he still lost fingers over it.

He was convinced that burning Edric had an advantage to him personally. There is no personal advantage to Stannis of burning Rattleshirt instead of Mance. "They" requires a total of two people. Mel and Mance qualify that requirement. Yes, when Stannis said Mance could be useful I believe it was in the "shame he has to die instead" vein.

Not a chance? You have an advance copy of TWOW? Or a crystal ball? Cause there's no way you can say with certainty that you know what is going to happen. Really all bets are off on this stuff. GRRM could pull out something none of us have mentioned in this thread. I'm not saying any of this is necessarily right, just that it's possible. Unless you can prove otherwise, we're just going to keep going in circles here.

[Ser Eric]

Aemon's own steward is yet another example of someone who came to the Watch grown or nearly grown and thus would not have had the time or opportunity to learn. Do you think Mance as a child was treated like an adult member of the Watch with a full schedule? There is plenty of opportunity for him to have learned all kinds of things including reading, 'riting, and ravening. No, there's no evidence that he did, but there's also no evidence that he didn't. Like many things with this series, we'll have to wait and see.

Robb grew up at Winterfell and yet there's no indication he knows anything about sending ravens. It's not a widely known skill so your insistence that it is obvious that Mance would know Ravening is completely off the mark...Lots of people, lots of well educated people growing up with Maesters do not know anything about Ravening.

Why would Mance want Jon at Winterfell? We don't know yet. Could have something to do with Stannis, or Roose, or Ramsay, or something found in Lyanna's tomb. Quite frankly we don't know why ANYONE who wrote the letter did it for certain (though if it was Ramsay we have a pretty good idea). Once again, we have to wait and see.

Oh dear, "the something found n Lyanna's Tomb" rears its ugly head again. There have been decent motives spelled out for both Ramsay and Stannis (though I don't buy the Stannis one). There's nothing for Mance.

No, if he were perfect at copying Ramsay's style the letter wouldn't have any clues that it might not have come from Ramsay, like use of the word crows for members of the Night's Watch. The mention of Val would be either for flavor, or because Mance suspects some kind of connection between Jon and Val.

So let me get this straight. Mance is clever enough to include Val in the letter but not clever enough to realize that the word "crow" is commonly used by the Wildlings. Ok then....that makes no sense.

Do me a favor, quote me the text that indicates the people at Winterfell even know that all of the spearwives helped Theon and fArya escape. It's entirely possible that they managed to cover it up, or claim that it was one or two with some crazy scheme and the rest knew nothing about it.

This is hilarious. You are completely ready to buy that Mance knows how to read and write and knows how to send Ravens but unwilling to buy that the Spearwives getting caught would implicate Mance. Oh my...You don't need to be Sherlock Holmes to deduce that Mance would be implicated. If nothing else, Ramsay/Roose would want to question him and hence look for him.

Loads of people in Westeros who are capable to the same extent that BR and Mance are? Name them. And they have to combine the intelligence, the instinct, the charisma, the fighting ability, the gift for strategy, and the ability to see the bigger picture that so many in Westeros miss. Tywin Lannister is the only person I can think of who comes close in the strategy and intelligence departments but he had no charisma. He led by fear rather than inspiration or respect.

Strategy? If Mance was strategically capable he would have taken the wall with fewer casualties than he ended up. Nor would STannis have trampled him with so few men. Stannis is one comparison actually. No one seems to like him just like no one seemed to like BR and yet they both helped their brothers rule. They are both intelligent, leaders and both can see the bigger picture as evidenced by Stannis coming to the wall. Both are not beyond doing the unpleasant if it's required. Both have lived in Kings Landing. Both have Targaryen blood. I can go on really...There are no links between the two. You, using a random set of parameters to bring up similarities means sweet fa.

Uh, yes, I do have a reason. You not understanding the reason doesn't negate it. Stannis' character and history suggest that he would not have burned one man in place of another, and let a condemned criminal go free. For crying out loud Davos saved his life and the lives of everyone else at Storm's End and he still lost fingers over it.

He was convinced that burning Edric had an advantage to him personally. There is no personal advantage to Stannis of burning Rattleshirt instead of Mance. "They" requires a total of two people. Mel and Mance qualify that requirement. Yes, when Stannis said Mance could be useful I believe it was in the "shame he has to die instead" vein.

No, you don't have a reason. I proved your point wrong in the very post you quoted. He spared a rapist while punishing others of the same crime in DwD. His sense of justice is not iron clad. You know what there is no history of though? Melisandre conspiring against Stannis so blatantly and so openly in a way that can come back to bite her. You know what there is no history of? Melisandre devising a plan to burn a random guy instead of burning someone with Kings Blood. As for Stannis having no advantage in not burning Mance, this is again not backed up the books. Stannis is clearly shown to be in a dilemma with Mance. He mentions the usefulness of Mance on more than one occasion. He mentions how Mance could help him bind the Wildlings to him. He mentions how Mance is a cunning man and how he knows a lot about the others. Melisandre also says Jon saved Mance. And who did Jon try to convince that burning Mance was not a good idea? That's right, it was Stannis.

Not a chance? You have an advance copy of TWOW? Or a crystal ball? Cause there's no way you can say with certainty that you know what is going to happen. Really all bets are off on this stuff. GRRM could pull out something none of us have mentioned in this thread. I'm not saying any of this is necessarily right, just that it's possible. Unless you can prove otherwise, we're just going to keep going in circles here.

Only logic I'm afraid. A siege takes time when the castle is well garrisoned as it is in this case even with possible defections inside the castle. Because we're even talking about the second battle, I assume we're on the same page that Stannis wins the first battle? The first battle itself will take a couple of days at the very least and that's excluding travel and what not. Then there's time required for the ravens to travel to CB. All put together we're talking of quite a length of time

.....

[Ser Eric]

By going to Winterfell, Jon would have forsaken his vows. As an oathbreaker his life would be forfeit by the laws of the seven kingdoms, unless he backed a king who would pardon him.

Not entirely. Ramsay threatened Jon himself (and by extension the NW) which is a good reason to do what Jon did. Not sure how Stannis can so safely presume otherwise. There's also the fact that Stannis sent Arya to CB. The Pink letter is intended to provoke Jon but Stannis does not know if the letter would have been enough. However keeping Arya prisoner and mentioning the letter would have given Jon even more incentive to ride south. Why not do that? It even adds more credence to the idea that Jon is breaking the vows for personal reasons and not for the Watch.

The second issue is STannis has to consider how loyal Jon would really be if he uses deceit and manipulation to lure Jon to WF leaving him with no option but to take control of WF. He's Ned Stark's son and once he takes control of WF he'll likely command even more loyalty and respect than Stannis would. Not an ideal position to be in for Stannis if he intends to march south.

Third, are you assuming the letter is sent after the battle with the Freys/Manderley or before?

[Amris]

Could you count the votes and add the current result to the OP please?