Do you think there will be a second Long Night? What will be the trigger?

[Blazfemur]

Truly, what may cause the Long Night, is sacrificing what rightfully belongs to them by whatever "contract" is in place. I'm looking at you, Melisandre/Craster's last baby boy.

[Codename: Nymeria]

 

 

Have you read any of my theories, I have to ask? I'm not "coming up" with anything at all - I'm simply interpreting the text as metaphor, which I think I have laid out a ton of evidence for. I never, ever "come up" with an idea to patch a hole or explain anything. I started interpreting the dragons pouring forth from the destroyed moon story from Qarhtine legend as a meteor shower, and I took the myth's basic assertion - that there was once a second moon - at face value. A large part of my methodology is simply to treat the myths in the story as credible, through the lens of folklore and "the bard's truth." Modern man makes the mistake of too easily dismissing real world mythology in my opinion, and I think many have done the same with ASOIAF mythology. I'm just taking it as a version of the truth and trying to undertdsand what they are talking about. 

 

 

I have read some of your other theories (I have work, too), and I'm not suggesting there isn't value in them, or that they aren't well thought out, but I refer to my "cigar is just a cigar" comment. You are coming up with something; you're creating an explanation for something that doesn't necessarily have to be explained. Which is mythology, certainly, and as I believe others have said, I don't know that you'll be proven wrong so much as I don't think what you've come up with has enough bearing on the story line that GRRM would address it in the next two books - which strikes me as suggesting it's not something he consciously and meticulously planned out, just something quirky he put in that doesn't really have an explanation other than that this is, in the end, fiction, and not everything requires an explanation.

 

 

 

I disagree with your reasoning about the Long Night - wouldn't it make sense for it to fall, and then for our heroes to end it? That's suitably heroic.

 

 

How long does a Long Night have to be before it's "Long"? At least according to Old Nan, the original lasted a generation. In my previous post, I did point that I think the predecessor of a Long Night occurring seems believable...but there just isn't space left in the storyline at this point for it to drag on long enough to include, say, a 10-year winter. To me, "Long Night" would imply something that lasted years (probably at least a decade, if not a generation), and I'm not buying that Tyrion will actually be 80 in his bed (with...) at the end of the story.

[LmL]

Truly, what may cause the Long Night, is sacrificing what rightfully belongs to them by whatever "contract" is in place. I'm looking at you, Melisandre/Craster's last baby boy.

That's an interesting one, Blaz. I think that baby has to be highly significant, right? I mean any good theory about the Others involved those Craster babies... Craster at least had some sort of arrangement with them, and that's been broken. It would be kind of a small straw to break the camel's back, but it's in the mileau of potential sacrilegious acts performed in the North along with everything at Winterfell, no Stark in WF, Neds sword split, NW "invading" the Others home turf.... Craster baby snatching is in the mix.

[LmL]

 
 
I have read some of your other theories (I have work, too), and I'm not suggesting there isn't value in them, or that they aren't well thought out, but I refer to my "cigar is just a cigar" comment. You are coming up with something; you're creating an explanation for something that doesn't necessarily have to be explained. Which is mythology, certainly, and as I believe others have said, I don't know that you'll be proven wrong so much as I don't think what you've come up with has enough bearing on the story line that GRRM would address it in the next two books - which strikes me as suggesting it's not something he consciously and meticulously planned out, just something quirky he put in that doesn't really have an explanation other than that this is, in the end, fiction, and not everything requires an explanation.
 
 
 
How long does a Long Night have to be before it's "Long"? At least according to Old Nan, the original lasted a generation. In my previous post, I did point that I think the predecessor of a Long Night occurring seems believable...but there just isn't space left in the storyline at this point for it to drag on long enough to include, say, a 10-year winter. To me, "Long Night" would imply something that lasted years (probably at least a decade, if not a generation), and I'm not buying that Tyrion will actually be 80 in his bed (with...) at the end of the story.

I would say that the first morning the sun doesn't come up, there should be general alarm. After a week of not coming up, you'd start thinking of it as another Long Night. I think really a couple of days of no sun would have everyone panicking pretty hard. If the Others come at the same time - it's suitably dire at that point. It doesn't have to go on very long at all. It will be terrifying.

[Taenqyrhae]

I don't know who Velikovsky is or what his theories were, but almost all world mythology absolutely does have a level of astronomy to it. That's basically indisputable. And most the world mythology of ASOIAF have natural disasters in them... So... Be careful not to carry over your real world biases into a fantasy novel, because George is writing a story where magic is fundamentally tied to nature, and natural disasters with magical ramifications are a big part of the series.

The mythology of Quetzalcoatl is a great example - it tells you everything you could ever want to know about the orbit of Venus as it appears from earth. The entire myth is based on the actions of Venus in the sky.

https://lucifermeanslightbringer.wordpress.com/2015/06/27/lucifer-means-lightbringer/

You should read up on him, you are traversing a lot of the same ground.

 

It is true that many astronomical features were named after aspects of mythology, but Velikovsky tried to say that the miraculous events described in myths were actual physical phenomenon caused by the astronomical objects that were named after gods, and that the myths were actually referring to the planets themselves.  For instance, he saw parallels between Hindu and Greek mythology in that Athena was born fully formed from the head of Zeus and Shukra emerged from the mouth of Shiva.  Zeus (or rather Jupiter, he was of the mistaken belief that these two entities referred to the same being) and Shiva were both associated with the planet Jupiter, and Shukra was associated with Venus.  He tied Athena to Venus by showing how Aphrodite later replaced Athena in some myths, and the Roman goddess Venus had many similarities with Aphrodite.  OK, that's interesting enough, though not that unusual since we know that the Greeks and the Indians had a lot of influence on each other.  Where Velikovsky got really weird was he said this meant that the planet Venus literally was ejected from Jupiter in historical times, after which it travelled through the solar system, passing near enough to the Earth for some of it's atmosphere to be transferred between the planets, and then settled into a circular orbit near the Sun, and ancient astronomers witnessed all this and described it in myths.  Of course, even the most basic understanding of astronomy or even simple physics would show how ludicrous that idea was.  Velikovsky did this repeatedly - he would find a couple of myths that seemed similar, try to find connections between the deities described and the planets, and then say the myth was about an actual astronomical occurrence.  

So your essays seem very familiar to me or anyone who has read Velikovsky.  You are doing the same thing, but with a fictional mythology and astronomy.  Velikovsky is very well known among people who were into science fiction in the 70s and 60s, and I doubt GRRM would lift so many ideas from someone whose theories are mostly the subject of ridicule these days.

 

I was just reminded of another wacky idea from Velikovsky, and it showed how he followed current science but did not truly understand it.  He tied his idea of Venus being a giant comet ejected from Jupiter to the myth of Moses wandering in the desert.  See, scientists had recently published that they were able to prove that complex hydrocarbons existed in the atmosphere of Venus.  Velikovsky saw "hydrocarbon" but obviously thought "carbohydrate" because he says that the manna that the Hebrews ate while wandering in the desert came from the atmosphere of Venus as it passed the Earth.

[winterfellbeyondthewall]

If you look at the fire magic we have seen in the series so far, I'd say it produces more shadow than light. To me, it seems like the very nature of fire magic itself may be corrupt. That idea would fit in with the notion that the Shadowlnds function like the heart of winter, a nexus point for fire magic.

That's a really interesting notation actually I think I like it. Asshai would represent those fire magic arcs really well but I can't see GRRM abandoning Valyria completely and heading towards Asshai and the shadowlands. Though I'd prefer this trajectory a lot more I just cannot see it happening yet

[LmL]

You should read up on him, you are traversing a lot of the same ground.

 

It is true that many astronomical features were named after aspects of mythology, but Velikovsky tried to say that the miraculous events described in myths were actual physical phenomenon caused by the astronomical objects that were named after gods, and that the myths were actually referring to the planets themselves.  For instance, he saw parallels between Hindu and Greek mythology in that Athena was born fully formed from the head of Zeus and Shukra emerged from the mouth of Shiva.  Zeus (or rather Jupiter, he was of the mistaken belief that these two entities referred to the same being) and Shiva were both associated with the planet Jupiter, and Shukra was associated with Venus.  He tied Athena to Venus by showing how Aphrodite later replaced Athena in some myths, and the Roman goddess Venus had many similarities with Aphrodite.  OK, that's interesting enough, though not that unusual since we know that the Greeks and the Indians had a lot of influence on each other.  Where Velikovsky got really weird was he said this meant that the planet Venus literally was ejected from Jupiter in historical times, after which it travelled through the solar system, passing near enough to the Earth for some of it's atmosphere to be transferred between the planets, and then settled into a circular orbit near the Sun, and ancient astronomers witnessed all this and described it in myths.  Of course, even the most basic understanding of astronomy or even simple physics would show how ludicrous that idea was.  Velikovsky did this repeatedly - he would find a couple of myths that seemed similar, try to find connections between the deities described and the planets, and then say the myth was about an actual astronomical occurrence.  

So your essays seem very familiar to me or anyone who has read Velikovsky.  You are doing the same thing, but with a fictional mythology and astronomy.  Velikovsky is very well known among people who were into science fiction in the 70s and 60s, and I doubt GRRM would lift so many ideas from someone whose theories are mostly the subject of ridicule these days.

 

I was just reminded of another wacky idea from Velikovsky, and it showed how he followed current science but did not truly understand it.  He tied his idea of Venus being a giant comet ejected from Jupiter to the myth of Moses wandering in the desert.  See, scientists had recently published that they were able to prove that complex hydrocarbons existed in the atmosphere of Venus.  Velikovsky saw "hydrocarbon" but obviously thought "carbohydrate" because he says that the manna that the Hebrews ate while wandering in the desert came from the atmosphere of Venus as it passed the Earth.

 

Well, that's pretty crazy stuff. I was nodding a long until you got to the "Jupiter ejected Venus" part... and then its a big "WHOAH THERE..."

 

But to clarify, no, I am not talking about naming planets after mythological beings. I am saying that at the root of most world myth is observation of the heavens and of nature.  For early man, myth was a way of relating to and understanding the forces around him. Quetzalcoatl's characteristics and deeds are in large part based on observation of Venus and its orbital pattern. The cycle of the seasons is big one, it's behind a lot of myth. The world tree - the cosmos axis - is another universal mythological archetype. The Egyptians made up a cool story about the eyes of Horus - they saw the sun and moon as his eyes, and the sky as his face. To explain the cycle of the moon - the fact that it disappears and reappears every 20-something days - they made up a story about Horus being blinded by Set, and having a new eye remade by Thoth. That is what I am talking about - mythology that has "astronomy"in the most basic sense at its root. Astronomy only means "man observing the heavens" in the most literal sense.

 

So actually, all I am doing is applying this knowledge to the mythology in ASOIAF. This is especially fruitful because George has designed his mythology to replicate this real-world phenomena - mythology based on observations and interactions with nature. Specifically, huge natural disasters. As I said, almost all of his old myths involve disasters - lightning bolts, island drowning, huge tsunamis and storms, stars being pulled down from heaven, a second moon which exploded, the sun hiding its face, some kind of horrific nuclear winter. These are all woven into the ASOAIF legends by George - I am just following what he is doing. 

If you are unaware of the fact that most work mythology is based on astronomy & nature, then my approach might seem odd. But nevertheless, its a fact: mythology is based on astronomy and nature forces. 

[LmL]

That's a really interesting notation actually I think I like it. Asshai would represent those fire magic arcs really well but I can't see GRRM abandoning Valyria completely and heading towards Asshai and the shadowlands. Though I'd prefer this trajectory a lot more I just cannot see it happening yet

 

Valyria represents a re-flowering of the original Asshai (Great Empire of the Dawn, imo) culture, that's all. Asshai came first, though. The ancestors of Valyria seem to have descended from the ancient Asshai, and they basically found a new source of fire magic and set up shop. Until that shit blew up, anyway. I think the Doom has many parallels with whatever happened at Asshai. The Doom only happened 400 years ago, and so the fallout zone is so magically toxic that nobody can go near. Asshai, hover, has had 8,000 years to cool - and it's STILL incredibly toxic. Perhaps in a few thousand years Valyria will be tolerable, more like Asshai, but still all messed up. So there's no "abandoning" anything - the two are interconnected, imo. 

[LmL]

 

 

 

I have read some of your other theories (I have work, too), and I'm not suggesting there isn't value in them, or that they aren't well thought out, but I refer to my "cigar is just a cigar" comment. 

 

 

Just wanted to say thank you for reading and for the nice words, even if you disagree with large parts of the premise. I appreciate it. :)

[AryaNymeriaVisenya]

In winter the days are short and the nights are long. In the Uk we call them the long nights. I dont know about the US. If winter lasts a generation and every day the sun rises at 8 and sets at 5, it would feel like it was always night. Hence the long night.

[Codename: Nymeria]

 

Just wanted to say thank you for reading and for the nice words, even if you disagree with large parts of the premise. I appreciate it. :)

 

Don't get me wrong - the stuff you do is incredible - it's what makes me appreciate the forums, and is infinitely, infinitely better than the people who just start a topic called, "What character would you like to be friends with?" I think you learn things about the story and, even cooler, all sorts of other stuff (science! technology!) from these types of discussions. I'm just a natural cynic, so I usually end up playing the "uh-uh" role. 

 

 

That said, my latter point was more that what you're describing happening seems like, well, I feel like it should be referred to as a "Long Weekend" given the context. I would fully agree that I expect some sort of crazy weather change emulating the Long Night when the Others make their move. But again, the term itself refers (in my mind) to the entirely of the time span, not an abbreviated and interrupted span of it. It'd be like planning "The Summer of George" and then slipping on an envelope and winding up in a body cast. Not really The Summer of George anymore, is it?

[LmL]

Thanks again for the kind word, it means all the more coming from a self-professed cynic. ;)  BTW I would cite Graham Hancock and R. A. Schwaller De Lubicz, John Anthony West and Robert Schoch as my big influences. Campbell more recently, although his ideas are well travelled at this point and can be found in many places.

 

As for the Long Wekkend at Bernie's... I think you're being very literal. I think the idea is that it was a horrible thing that happened in the past that is coming to kick our ass again unless.... there's some kind of hero (multiple heroes, in this case) out there who can stop it. The point is that it lasted a generation last time, so when it seems to be beginning again, we know what we are facing, what kind of peril hangs over our head - the potential death of almost everyone and everything. It doesn't need to last x amount of years this time just because it's called the "Long Night." Everyone will know what the deal is when the sun stops shining and the Others invade, you know? 

[Blazfemur]

That's an interesting one, Blaz. I think that baby has to be highly significant, right? I mean any good theory about the Others involved those Craster babies... Craster at least had some sort of arrangement with them, and that's been broken. It would be kind of a small straw to break the camel's back, but it's in the mileau of potential sacrilegious acts performed in the North along with everything at Winterfell, no Stark in WF, Neds sword split, NW "invading" the Others home turf.... Craster baby snatching is in the mix.

 

There are a few things in place, that shouldn't be, looking back. No Stark in Winterfell has caused the most change, particularly in the weather surrounding it as well. Lack of tribute, like Eddard cleaning his blade in the pond (blood tribute, as he prayed to the old gods), no blood ward as is their family motto (a Stark MUST be in Winterfell, like a stipulation that HAS to be in compliance).

Why is that pond black?

 

-The children also stopped trading with the watch (Obsidian to the watch, perhaps even the magical wards and such on the wall that have weakened, possibly gone, as jeor's wight attack happened there). Why did this stop happening? Do members of the watch of today even know who the children are (the elders probably do/did, i mean majority of the liars, rapists and thieves that man it now)?

 

-The wall weeping, is that specifically limited to raise of climate, or is something else also at work here as well?

 

Questions, questions.

[LmL]

 
There are a few things in place, that shouldn't be, looking back. No Stark in Winterfell has caused the most change, particularly in the weather surrounding it as well. Lack of tribute, like Eddard cleaning his blade in the pond (blood tribute, as he prayed to the old gods), no blood ward as is their family motto (a Stark MUST be in Winterfell, like a stipulation that HAS to be in compliance).
Why is that pond black?
 
-The children also stopped trading with the watch (Obsidian to the watch, perhaps even the magical wards and such on the wall that have weakened, possibly gone, as jeor's wight attack happened there). Why did this stop happening? Do members of the watch of today even know who the children are (the elders probably do/did, i mean majority of the liars, rapists and thieves that man it now)?
 
-The wall weeping, is that specifically limited to raise of climate, or is something else also at work here as well?
 
Questions, questions.

I analyzed the cold back pond as well as the cold black Womb of the World in one of my newer essays, Language of Leviathan. Would be curious to get your thoughts on that, Blazfemur, if you have a chance to take a look. :)

[Blazfemur]

ill take a looksiedoodle

[Blazfemur]

bro, i took a looksiedoodle. thats going to take more than one looksiedoodle. thats gonna need at least 2 or 3 looksiedoodles, and a speculative peeksie at least.

[LmL]

bro, i took a looksiedoodle. thats going to take more than one looksiedoodle. thats gonna need at least 2 or 3 looksiedoodles, and a speculative peeksie at least.

 

Yeah well, you now how I get down. Take your time. 

I'm going to record the first clue essays into pod cats as soon as I can to make them easier to digest. I realize reading time is limited. 

 

I am not insulted if you read my theory in the water closet. ;)

[LordToo-Fat-to-Sit-a-Horse]

regular season =  Heart of Summer vs Heart of Winter in equilibrium.

 

 

the heart of summer was corrupted into the heart of darkness = Long Night since the balance was broken... then we get irregular seasons.

 

what happens if the Heart of Winter is destroyed in turn?

 

rebalancing of seasons?

[Blazfemur]

regular season =  Heart of Summer vs Heart of Winter in equilibrium.

 

 

the heart of summer was corrupted into the heart of darkness = Long Night since the balance was broken... then we get irregular seasons.

 

what happens if the Heart of Winter is destroyed in turn?

 

rebalancing of seasons?

 

hmm. heart of winter destroyed, would display heart of darkness dominance.

[sciteacher]

sciteacher, on 11 Aug 2015 - 11:24 PM, said:

The first Long Night only lasted "a generation". A generation is the time it takes for a newborn child to grow old enough to have a child of their own. So about 20 years.

 

I wouldn't put too much stock in that - it could have been anything from a few years up to 20 or more. You have to think it would be VERY hard for anyone to survive more than a few years with no crops to eat. Personally, I don't know if we are meant to know - I'm simply pointing out that a prolonged darkness of even a year or two would cause significant famine, anarchy, societal collapse, etc

 

. 

I was responding to someone who had gotten the impression the Long Night had lasted a century, 100 years. I just wanted to get them in the ballpark of 'a generation'.

 

Yes, it is an extreme amount of time. No matter how great your food preservation methods, how much livestock you have (they have to have food, too), or how many greenhouses you build, it would be extremely difficult to survive 15-20 years of winter. It would be hard to heat your shelter for that amount of time, unless you happened to live in a coal bearing cave.