R+L=J v.154

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

A secret second marriage could make lyanna feel better but could not help very much on their reputation, neither it will ganrantee the status of lyanna and jon firmly, while it would surely cause a high risk for rhaegar to be exiled or disinherited. It is safer to wait for elia to die and marry her and legimitize jon later when he has power.
Weighing the pros and cons, it does not seem to be a smart move.
But who knows, rhaegar is deep in love. He surely could do anything he can to please lyanna, including a marriage and a promise to make her queen. He was very likely to tell her: dear. My wife will die soon. Then you will be the sole wife and I will make our son as my heir. Now are you feel ok to run with me?

As far as we've been told, Elia wasn't dying.

[Ygrain]

A secret second marriage could make lyanna feel better but could not help very much on their reputation, neither it will ganrantee the status of lyanna and jon firmly, while it would surely cause a high risk for rhaegar to be exiled or disinherited.

You don't like the second marriage idea, I get it. So, in your eyes, an imperfect solution to Lyanna's situation is as bad as no solution at all?

 

It is safer to wait for elia to die

Elia wasn't going to die. And even if she was, what about Lyanna's betrothal to Robert?

 

 

and marry her and legimitize jon later when he has power.

So meanwhile, Lyanna is a concubine and Jon a bastard. I doubt anyone would have been happy about that.

[purple-eyes]

As far as we've been told, Elia wasn't dying.

She almost died after the second birth. Rhaegar did not have hindsight, so it is quite reasonable for him to expect elia die soon. Most people probably thought so too.
I am just saying this maybe part of the deal rhaegar gave to lyanna:
Dear, run with me. I will marry you secretly. You will be my second wife. Do not worry, you do not need to live with her for too long. my sick wife will likely die soon, then you will become my only wife. I can also make our child my heir when I become king, etc. etc.

[purple-eyes]

You don't like the second marriage idea, I get it. So, in your eyes, an imperfect solution to Lyanna's situation is as bad as no solution at all?
 Elia wasn't going to die. And even if she was, what about Lyanna's betrothal to Robert?
 So meanwhile, Lyanna is a concubine and Jon a bastard. I doubt anyone would have been happy about that.

It is a bad solution if you consider that it may very likely cause a disinheritance or exile to rhaegar.
While keeping her as mistress is not going to please lyanna but it keeps the crown of rhaegar safely.
Rhaegar would never be punished by having a mistress, but he would have big trouble by having a extra marriage.
But I admit that rhaegar may neglect this risk and simply want to make lyanna feel happy.
So yes, with love, he may see this is a good solution.

About your last point, it is also possibly that lyanna is willing to run off with him even she knows she will become a royal mistress. Love makes a girl crazy too. Sometimes they do not care the reputation if she loves this man deeply. She is at least ready to be his mistress and give him a bastard since they know a second mAriage may or may not work in the end. Even rhaegar can not ganrantee that. Considering daena the defiant did not try to ask aegon for a secret marriage, in stead of raising daemon by herself secretly without saying who is the father, it is surely not strange that lyanna would go even without a marriage proposal. It is not a shame for her to be the mistress for the man she is in love with, at least in her mind.

[Ygrain]

She almost died after the second birth. Rhaegar did not have hindsight, so it is quite reasonable for him to expect elia die soon. Most people probably thought so too.
I am just saying this maybe part of the deal rhaegar gave to lyanna:
Dear, run with me. I will marry you secretly. You will be my second wife. Do not worry, you do not need to live with her for too long. my sick wife will likely die soon, then you will become my only wife. I can also make our child my heir when I become king, etc. etc.

Here you're stretching. No-one said that Elia would die soon but that she would bear no more children, and quite possibly just like with Naerys, another pregnancy would kill her.

 

It is a bad solution if you consider that it may very likely cause a disinheritance or exile to rhaegar.
While keeping her as mistress is not going to please lyanna but it keeps the crown of rhaegar safely.
Rhaegar would never be punished by having a mistress, but he would have big trouble by having a extra marriage.
But I admit that rhaegar may neglect this risk and simply want to make lyanna feel happy.
So yes, with love, he may see this is a good solution.

Yes, I guess that's the point - that he cared about Lyanna more than about his crown. Or, just like Robb, he put the girl's honour above his own.

 

 

About your last point, it is also possibly that lyanna is willing to run off with him even she knows she will become a royal mistress. Love makes a girl crazy too. Sometimes they do not care the reputation if she loves this man deeply. She is at least ready to be his mistress and give him a bastard since they know a second mAriage may or may not work in the end. Even rhaegar can not ganrantee that. Considering daena the defiant did not try to ask aegon for a secret marriage, in stead of raising daemon by herself secretly without saying who is the father, it is surely not strange that lyanna would go even without a marriage proposal. It is not a shame for her to be the mistress for the man she is in love with, at least in her mind.

Daena wasn't a maiden of fifteen, though, and I doubt that except the defiant part, Lyanna had the same mindset as Daena.

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

She almost died after the second birth. Rhaegar did not have hindsight, so it is quite reasonable for him to expect elia die soon. Most people probably thought so too.
I am just saying this maybe part of the deal rhaegar gave to lyanna:
Dear, run with me. I will marry you secretly. You will be my second wife. Do not worry, you do not need to live with her for too long. my sick wife will likely die soon, then you will become my only wife. I can also make our child my heir when I become king, etc. etc.

The birth itself almost killed her. But Rhargar did not leave immediately. Dany's vision in the HotU shows Rhaegar and Elia discussing Aegons name, and Elia seems quite recovered there. Not to mention that more months had passed between Rhaegar leaving Dragonstone, and Rhaegar coming face to face with Lyanna.

[purple-eyes]

Here you're stretching. No-one said that Elia would die soon but that she would bear no more children, and quite possibly just like with Naerys, another pregnancy would kill her.
 

Yes, I guess that's the point - that he cared about Lyanna more than about his crown. Or, just like Robb, he put the girl's honour above his own.
 
 

Daena wasn't a maiden of fifteen, though, and I doubt that except the defiant part, Lyanna had the same mindset as Daena.

I do not know what you mean. Daena is a maiden too when she slept with aegon.
As a Targ princess herself, it would be surely a happy thing for her if she can become second queen of aegon IV and make her son as a prince. Either she did not care about it, or she could not get it.
Do you mean lyanna feel it unhappy to be a mistress but daena feel it happy to be a mistress?

[purple-eyes]

The birth itself almost killed her. But Rhargar did not leave immediately. Dany's vision in the HotU shows Rhaegar and Elia discussing Aegons name, and Elia seems quite recovered there. Not to mention that more months had passed between Rhaegar leaving Dragonstone, and Rhaegar coming face to face with Lyanna.

She can talk in the bed, yes, but this does not mean she is not sick.
Last time she took 6 months in bed for recovery and this second birth was worse.
It is not a stretch to think she may likely die.
Nareys was very bad in health after one birth and aegon's mistress expected her to die and replace her and she and her father said it openly to the public. I bet some people will say Elia may not survive.

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

She can talk in the bed, yes, but this does not mean she is not sick.
Last time she took 6 months in bed for recovery and this second birth was worse.
It is not a stretch to think she may likely die.
Nareys was very bad in health after one birth and aegon's mistress expected her to die and replace her and she and her father said it openly to the public. I bet some people will say Elia may not survive.

There's a difference between being sick and being at risk of dying.

Naerys was indeed at risk of dying, the third time she gave birth. The previous two births however, were not accompanied by such rumours.

But like I said, quite some time seems to have passed between Aegon's birth and Rhaegar coming face to face with Lyanna. And during all that time, Elia had not died.

Don't you think that if his wife was truly at risk of dying, Rhaegar would remain at Dragonstone until she had died?

[purple-eyes]

There's a difference between being sick and being at risk of dying.
Naerys was indeed at risk of dying, the third time she gave birth. The previous two births however, were not accompanied by such rumours.
But like I said, quite some time seems to have passed between Aegon's birth and Rhaegar coming face to face with Lyanna. And during all that time, Elia had not died.
Don't you think that if his wife was truly at risk of dying, Rhaegar would remain at Dragonstone until she had died?

I think there is not much doubt that she is badly sick and had to stay in bed for at least several months since last time she was sick for half year and maesters did not say she would not have more chidlren.
Second one should be much worse than first one so that maesters eventually warned her for next birth.
This is possible to give a feeling to people that she may die when they did not have hindsight to know she did not die.

I mean, rhaegar would leave DS anyway no matter Elia is dying or not. He is not a maester so he would not be useful to be around and he did not love her either. I do not think he will stay in DS for the sake of Elia. He had more important and urgent stuff to pursue.

And how did you know there quite some time between the birth and meeting lyanna?
It sounds like he left quite quickly after the birth and then took lyanna (which means also "met her"), if you consider the age of aegon and the length of the rebellion.

[three-eyed monkey]

The fact that incest is equally (if not seen as worse) is still practiced shows this is unlikely. What is likely is they saw that the line of succession became chaotic and it wasn't worth it anymore. They wouldn't need to outlaw it, as no one in the 7 Kingdoms practiced it outside of the royal family. Each of the 7 Kingdoms also had their own laws which probably outlawed it. And finally you did not address if a royal law actually applies to the royal family. Obviously you don't want to piss off the King as they can do whatever they want to you.
 
What this shows is that the Kingsguard valued their Kingsguard vows above all others, even their knightly vows (which this likely violated). When Ned tells them about Jaime slaying their King in his dream, they state that had they been there Jaime would have died instead. Hightower is showly aboslute loyalty to the King/Throne. His character is crucial to understanding why Hightower would remain at the tower guarding Lyanna and her child.
 
If Aerys ordered Hightower to bring back Rhaegar whatever the cost, he would be following his orders by staying at the TOJ. Rhaegar could have stated: "I will go, but you must remain and protect Lyanna until I'm able to retrieve her." Or it's a simple matter of Rhaegar ordering him, and Hightower knowing there were 4 other Kingsguard at KL knew the King was safe so he followed the order (I think this is less likely).
 
How did Hightower know where to find Rhaegar? Who knows. We don't know how long he was searching, he could have been at it for months. Or he could have rode straight from KL to the TOJ. We have little information on this beyond that he was tasked to find Rhaegar and return him. We know that Rhaegar returned without any of the 3 KG. We know that Jaime doesn't reflect on how the 3 KG deserted and failed their KG vows just like he did.
 
If he was going to forsake his KG vows he had plenty of opportunities to do so before then. Hightower showed what he valued the most in terms of vows. It is far fetched that he suddenly was convinced to do so by Rhaegar. Hightower was getting on in years and the KG was his life.

There is a difference between the case for incest and polygamy. The incestous marriage of Aerys was made by the king at the time, his father, probably because of the GoHH's prophecy. So it had the King's approval. Rhaegar's polygamous marriage did not, which might have been why Rhaegar was planning to call a Grand Council. I didn't address your point about royal law because there is only law, and the king largely is the law, even though there are other forces, like the nobility, the Faith, or the smallfolk, that he must consider when deciding on issues of law. As Ygrain said, polygamy is an uncertain card. Rhaegar may have married Lyanna, but he could not be sure the marriage would be seen as valid if the King did not approve. And there is no reason to think the king would approve. Therefore, Jon's legitimacy hung in the balance, that's the point I'm making.

I agree that the 3KG did not approve of the Usurper's victory at the Trident or of Jaime's actions. But remember, from their point of view Jaime was simply helping Tywin take down the Targaryens, to whom the KG were loyal. They were not in full possession of the facts when they judged Jaime's actions. What would the noble Hightower or Dayne have done if they were in Jaime's place? Are you sure they would have obeyed their king and let KL burn?

Pycelle accounts DoD levels of tension in the court at the time between the King and his son, which the KG would have been well aware of. Even the former Hand thought they had a better king in Rhaegar. So it is not a stretch to think that even the king's sworn swords were faced with this dilemma. Did they favour Aerys or Rhaegar? I think the case is strong for Dayne and Whent being on Rhaegar's side. You're suggesting that Hightower was on Aerys side, went to the ToJ to bring Rhaegar back, and then obeyed an order from Rhaegar to stay at the ToJ while Rhaegar returned alone. I think it is more plausible that Hightower favoured Rhaegar, went to the ToJ and stayed because Rhaegar told him, or perhaps even just asked him, to stay.

I accept that Rhaegar would not have wanted to dishonour Lyanna with a bastard. And I think Unmasked Lurker makes an interesting point about Rhaegar wanting a true legitimate dragon as the third head. I can buy that. I'm not saying that they didn't marry, they may have. I'm asking did Rhaegar put the cart before the horse in the hope that a Grand Council would correct the matter? We know a Grand Council featured somewhere in Rhaegar's plan. Replacing his father as King would both strengthen the validity of his polygamous marriage, and put him in a position to legitimise a bastard, so the Grand Council that never was could have provided a solution to his problem.

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

I think there is not much doubt that she is badly sick and had to stay in bed for at least several months since last time she was sick for half year and maesters did not say she would not have more chidlren.
Second one should be much worse than first one so that maesters eventually warned her for next birth.
This is possible to give a feeling to people that she may die when they did not have hindsight to know she did not die.

I mean, rhaegar would leave DS anyway no matter Elia is dying or not. He is not a maester so he would not be useful to be around and he did not love her either. I do not think he will stay in DS for the sake of Elia. He had more important and urgent stuff to pursue.

And how did you know there quite some time between the birth and meeting lyanna?
It sounds like he left quite quickly after the birth and then took lyanna (which means also "met her"), if you consider the age of aegon and the length of the rebellion.

Rhaegar leaves somewhere in the first few weeks of the year.  The war lasted for 'close to a year'. With the Siege of Storm's End having lasted 'close to a year' as well, and with the siege starting a few months into the war, but ending quite shortly after the Sack, it seems to me that the siege lasted a little less than 12 months, whereas the war itself lasted a little more than 12 months. 13, perhaps 14. 

 

The war seems to have ended late in 283 AC (start of 4th quarter, perhaps the last few weeks of the 3rd quarter; the official end of the war is the Sack, just to be clear). With the war thus starting late 282 AC, Lyanna's disappearance will have been a few short months before. Quite a few months after Rhaegar left Dragonstone. In fact, his journey would ultimatily lead him back into the Riverlands, suggesting that he first went somewhere else. 

[Lord Varys]

Elia was barren after the birth Aegon. The maesters said she couldn't have any more children. Not that it would kill her, like with Naerys. Aegon's birth had nearly killed Elia, though. One does indeed assume that Rhaegar stayed there long enough to see her recover from that. At around that time would have been the vision Dany saw.

[purple-eyes]

Rhaegar leaves somewhere in the first few weeks of the year.  The war lasted for 'close to a year'. With the Siege of Storm's End having lasted 'close to a year' as well, and with the siege starting a few months into the war, but ending quite shortly after the Sack, it seems to me that the siege lasted a little less than 12 months, whereas the war itself lasted a little more than 12 months. 13, perhaps 14. 
 
The war seems to have ended late in 283 AC (start of 4th quarter, perhaps the last few weeks of the 3rd quarter; the official end of the war is the Sack, just to be clear). With the war thus starting late 282 AC, Lyanna's disappearance will have been a few short months before. Quite a few months after Rhaegar left Dragonstone. In fact, his journey would ultimatily lead him back into the Riverlands, suggesting that he first went somewhere else.

I am sort of lost here. You say the war started in late 282. We know after rhaegar met and took lyanna, Brandon went to KL immediately. Then Rickard went to KL immediately for his son. Then they got killed pretty quickly then war started. So sounds like there were not much time between abduction and war start. If war star in late 282, rhaegar took lyanna at late 282 too, or maybe earliest middle 282.
Then you also say rhaegar left DS the first weeks of 282. So he was traveling for the majority of 282 by himself? He wandered for more than half a year then fell upon lyanna?

[purple-eyes]

Elia was barren after the birth Aegon. The maesters said she couldn't have any more children. Not that it would kill her, like with Naerys. Aegon's birth had nearly killed Elia, though. One does indeed assume that Rhaegar stayed there long enough to see her recover from that. At around that time would have been the vision Dany saw.

Actually you are right. This could hint that elia lost the ability to even get pregnant again. Although I do not know how maester determine this. A broken womb?
Now I feel rhaegar is indeed doing a favor to Elia and Dorne by running off.
Because he can certainly claim to the faith and king that elia should be set aside because she is barren now. this sounds like a very acceptable reason since rhaegar as a crown prince has every right to have more children. I guess king and faith could likely approve it. Dorne would be angry but just one house and their half-blood nephew aegon was still the heir to the throne so they did not have reason to do anything major, only complaining. Then it is much easier to marry lyanna publicly and lawfully.
But rhaegar chose to run off, which means he wanted to keep elia as princess, even this would ruin his reputation and put lyanna in a compromised position since people would despise her even there was a second secret marriage.
This is kind of a noble and caring move for Elia. He did not try to get rid of her since she is already useless.

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

I am sort of lost here. You say the war started in late 282. We know after rhaegar met and took lyanna, Brandon went to KL immediately. Then Rickard went to KL immediately for his son. Then they got killed pretty quickly then war started. So sounds like there were not much time between abduction and war start. If war star in late 282, rhaegar took lyanna at late 282 too, or maybe earliest middle 282.
Then you also say rhaegar left DS the first weeks of 282. So he was traveling for the majority of 282 by himself? He wandered for more than half a year then fell upon lyanna?

Traveling by himself? He took to the road with six companions, on a journey which would ultimately lead him back into the Riverlands. I assume the "back" is mentioned because Harrenhal had been discussed shortly before.

 

What Rhaegar had been doing in between leaving Dragonstone and coming face to face with Lyanna, I don't know. There is a theory that he went to meet up with the Ghost of High Heart, to figure out how to fullfill 'the dragon has three heads' now that Elia cannot have a third child. What else he might have done, I don't know. I personally read 'on a journey that would ultimately lead him back to the riverlands.' as a suggestion that Rhaegar first went elsewhere, and only then to the riverlands (where he might or might not have met up with the Ghost, as per the proposed theory). If you travel directly from Dragonstone to the riverlands (not such a long distance), I find it hardly counting as 'ultimately' arriving..

[purple-eyes]

Traveling by himself? He took to the road with six companions, on a journey which would ultimately lead him back into the Riverlands. I assume the "back" is mentioned because Harrenhal had been discussed shortly before.
 
What Rhaegar had been doing in between leaving Dragonstone and coming face to face with Lyanna, I don't know. There is a theory that he went to meet up with the Ghost of High Heart, to figure out how to fullfill 'the dragon has three heads' now that Elia cannot have a third child. What else he might have done, I don't know. I personally read 'on a journey that would ultimately lead him back to the riverlands.' as a suggestion that Rhaegar first went elsewhere, and only then to the riverlands (where he might or might not have met up with the Ghost, as per the proposed theory). If you travel directly from Dragonstone to the riverlands (not such a long distance), I find it hardly counting as 'ultimately' arriving..

I know he has companions, I just mean he wandered without lyanna.
I also agree he very likely visited ghost of high heart and discussed how to have third child or even who will be the mother. But looking at the map, that hardly takes more than half of the year. Sure he can do some other mission for half a year then visited ghost. But from the world book, it sounds like abduction happened pretty shortly after rhaegar left DS. If what you said is correct, then rhaegar missed from DS for almost two years. From very early 282 to very late 283.
Do we have any evidence that war ended in the late part of 283?

[Alia of the knife]

I think Tywin thought Elia would die as well, which was why he kept Cersei at Court with him.

Which leads me to another question, Jaime never mentions Rhaegar and Cersei, and I think he would be jealous, didn't he know what Tywin planned?

[UnmaskedLurker]

LV--

 

I always thought that the statement about Elia not being able to have more children meant she was barren, as you stated. But others have argued strongly that in context it meant that the risk of death from a third pregnancy was too great. The text actually is ambiguous. So while I tend to think your reading is correct, I don't think we know for certain which alternative is the correct explanation. But I am not sure it matters. Either way, Elia was recovered by the time Rhaegar left her, and Rhaegar knew he was not going to get the third head of the dragon from her.

[Lord Varys]

Actually, we don't know when and how Rhaegar and Lyanna 'run off'. We know that he fell on her and carried her away at sword point, but that is all we know. Eventually they end up at that tower, but what they did in-between, and what lead to them hiding themselves isn't clear. There could very well be a separate story for this, like - Rhaegar and Lyanna marrying at some public place, say, either at Harrenhal and Maidenpool where Rhaegar had friends, which then subsequently leads to Aerys declaring Rhaegar an outlaw and traitor. His actions against Brandon (who would have falsely thought Rhaegar went to KL with Lyanna prior to the marriage) and Rickard would then at first be part of his actions against Rhaegar since he would, in light of the suspicions he developed at Harrenhal (Rhaegar being in cahoots with the Starks, and Lyanna's crowning being proof of that), continue to think that Brandon and Rickard were conspiring with Rhaegar against him. The end of that chain of events is then to demand the heads of Ned and Robert, too.

 

Only the Rebellion itself would then gradually reveal what was actually going on, most notably that the rebels were indeed as much after Rhaegar as after Aerys, which then could subsequently explain why Aerys and Rhaegar sort of reconciled (if that's what happened and Aerys didn't blackmail Rhaegar into returning by threatening Elia and his children by her).

 

My guess on Elia's health is that had general troubles with pregnancy due to her bad constitution and slender figure. Her sickness after Rhaenys' birth sounds like some sort of infection since she was bedridden for half a year. The issue with Aegon's birth may have been of a more serious nature (difficulty during the birth itself) but one from which recovered after more quickly than the first time. I guess maester have some means of determining if a woman can conceive again or not if it is caused by a difficult pregnancy.

 

The idea that Rhaegar intended to set aside Elia is actually not all that far-fetched. In fact, my take on Prince Maegor's second marriage to Alys Harroway is based on the same idea. Ceryse Hightower was considered to be barren, and thus of no use as a wife, which is why Maegor took a new one. But he wouldn't have intended to share the bed with Ceryse thereafter in a harem-like fashion. That may have been the case later on with Tyanna and the three black brides, but not at this early stage.

Setting aside wives and taking a new one doesn't seem to be that big a deal for royalty in Westeros (but it was, of course, with Maegor due to the fact that Ceryse was a Hightower and the niece of the High Septon, who would be the authority to decide whether such a thing could be done) but in Rhaegar's case we really can't assume that Aerys would condone or allow even that. Or the High Septon, for that matter.

 

Setting aside Elia could also raise issues for the legitimacy of Rhaegar's children by her, although that is not necessarily the case if the marriage would be annulled on the grounds that the 'wife was incapable of giving her husband additional children' (no idea, though, if the Faith annuls marriages for that reason). But this is an idle question since nothing suggests Rhaegar actually tried to get an annulment before marrying Lyanna - but, like Maegor, he may have decided to consider the marriage dissolved without caring about the Faith's view on the matter and just establishing facts by taking a new bride. 

 

You can deduce the fact that Rhaegar and Lyanna were most likely married from the fact that Ned talks about him as 'a boy with a bastard's name' instead of 'a or his bastard (son)' as well as from the fact that Ned disguises Lyanna's son as his own bastard rather than revealing or not hiding that he is Lyanna's child. As Lyanna's bastard he wouldn't have been in any real danger from Robert, and only if it was (widely) known that Lyanna and Rhaegar were married it could Ned feel the need that he could not go through with the 'he is Lyanna's bastard' approach. After all, if there was a secret marriage and Ned completely controlled the information after he had slain the knights at the tower, he could have pretended the marriage never happened.

 

And keeping Jon's true identity a secret makes also only sense if he is actually Rhaegar's legitimate son. Say, it comes out that Jon has Targaryen blood because the Stark hair is only phase and at the age of 5-6 he gets wisps of silver-golden hair like Prince Valarr had amidst his dark hair that grow more prominent over time. In such a scenario Ned would have to change his story, but if he could have gone for the Lyanna's bastard thing he would have done so first - Jon's life could only be in any real danger if he was Rhaegar's legitimate son, or could be considered as such because there was a marriage.

 

Whether that marriage was valid or considered as valid by a majority in Westeros, or whether Lyanna's son by Rhaegar could ever become a focal point of Targaryen loyalist and the figurehead of an uprising is a completely different matter. As is the strength of his claim against those of Viserys, Aegon, or Daenerys - that would all depend on whether anyone would fight and die to seat him on the throne rather than another Targaryen pretender. However, it would most likely cause some problems for the Starks and the boy himself - and my guess mostly is that Ned really didn't want any of that. He didn't want Lyanna to be Rhaegar's wife, he didn't want to have a Targaryen nephew, and he most certainly didn't want that any of that causes problems for him and his family, or strains his friendship to Robert. He wanted that Lyanna go through with her marriage to Robert.