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Heresy 180


Black Crow

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My point about the heroes, by way of clarification, is that it seems that one is required, but that each of the parties seeking the same looks for him [or her] in their own image and see said hero as fulfilling their destiny. Thus the Red lot are looking for someone who will cleanse the world with fire. Others may have their own ideas both as to the hero and the outcome.

Because Mel is fixated on her own Azor Ahai she assumes that the Prince that was Promised is another term for Azor Ahai. We don't actually know what the Prince is about so can we assume on that basis alone that the Prince will cleanse the world with fire?

What was suggested in Heresy 179 is that there are a number of important clues concerning Bran; he is pointedly referred to as a Prince and his coming is foretold, Bloodraven has watched over him since he was born and awaited his coming long after he should have shuffled off his mortal coil. He is, in short, behaving as if Bran is the Prince that was Promised.

What then of the business of the Prince coming of the line of Aerys and Rhaella? Where does that come from?

Why, it comes from a Woods Witch reputed or otherwise advertised to be a Child of the Forest.

Why then would the Children co-operate with the Targaryens. Fortune tellers and prophets prosper by telling their listeners what they want to believe. How better to hide and protect the true Prince than by telling the Targaryens he [or she] will be one of their own?

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Not to be semantic but if Jon fulfills the the prophecy of AAR as far as I'm concerned, he is AAR.  

I go no problem with semantics.:)

And I do think Jon's going to fill the role that Mel thinks AAR will fill. But I think that the AA story got conflated with stories of ancient heroes. AA did produce a powerful weapon. But it's an abomination--powerful through blood sacrifice. Martin seems to have set up that in Martinlandia, blood sacrifice might mean power, but it's an abomination: Craster, Mel, Dany and Mirri and the tent--power? No doubt. But abomination.

Whereas self-sacrifice is an ethic Martin embraces in-text. As Arthur Dayne told Jaime in the sept when he rose with bloody knees after a night of prayer: "blood is the seal of our devotion." One's OWN blood--that's the sacrifice that has power AND is not abominable.

Basically I think that during the Long Night (an event I believe was global) someone invented Valyrian Steel.  From this genesis we get the legend of Azor Ahai and Nissa Nissa. 

I agree--the AA story seems like the birth of Valyrian steel. Vs. true dragonsteel. In world, dragonglass is a naturally occurring substance that can break the Others' spell. I am now thinking dragonsteel is similar. The swords of pale fire Dany sees the ancient kings holding when she's being chased in her nightmare. The true great sword Dawn. Dawn gleams in sunlight. Gives light out. Is alive with light.

But Valyrian steel--it also looks alive to Tyrion, but it drinks light IN. It's dark, NOT illuminating. And it requires spells--not naturally occurring. And given what we know of the Valerians and dragon waking--seems not unlikely that Valyrian steel takes blood magic and sacrifice.

So why make a counterfeit of Dawn? Here's where I go off into speculation land: If the World Book's story of the Bloodstone Emperor is right--he was trying to usurp power. All of the kings and queens in Dany's dream have a sword of pale fire, NOT Valyrian steel. A usurper would need a powerful sword. But if the real sword of the kings (Dawn--with pale fire) was kept from him, he might make one.

I think that's the story of AA. Trying to make a powerful sword that lives--like Dawn, alive with light. To get it to live he takes another's life--it drinks Nissa Nissa's soul into the sword. Like Valyrian steel drinks in light.

Magic? Yes. Powerful? Yes. Hero? Yikes! This is where I think the stories got crossed--the story of magical swords--somehow AA got smushed in with the Sword of the Morning. But the swords aren't the same. 

As to the Last Hero, the main difference of course is that AAR is a prophecy and  the LH is a legend, an oral tradition that has no doubt had arms and legs added to it over the years.  Of course we don't know the end of that story but one must assume that the LH returns or how did anybody know the story ?

Agreed--and the above is one reason I waffle on whether the AA prophecy is about the Last Hero. But the Last Hero had to come back--or else the story can't get told.

But I'm more and more convinced that the AA prophecy is a mongrelization of the story of the Sword of the Morning and the invention of Valyrian Steel. Dawn shines. Valyrian steel drinks light in. Really seems like Dawn, the only completely unique sword, is much more likely to be the actual "Lightbringer." And the real hero who wield Dawn? The Sword of the Morning.

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What was suggested in Heresy 179 is that there are a number of important clues concerning Bran; he is pointedly referred to as a Prince and his coming is foretold, Bloodraven has watched over him since he was born and awaited his coming long after he should have shuffled off his mortal coil. He is, in short, behaving as if Bran is the Prince that was Promised.

What then of the business of the Prince coming of the line of Aerys and Rhaella? Where does that come from?

Why, it comes from a Woods Witch reputed or otherwise advertised to be a Child of the Forest.

Why then would the Children co-operate with the Targaryens. Fortune tellers and prophets prosper by telling their listeners what they want to believe. How better to hide and protect the true Prince than by telling the Targaryens he [or she] will be one of their own?

Interesting--though, if Bloodraven thinks this, is he thinking Bran's a hero, or just a battery in the factory?

As for the Woods Witch--maybe she's misleading. But she looks awfully un-child like. . . Still, I guess she might be receiving messages that would mislead the Targs. . . 

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Interesting--though, if Bloodraven thinks this, is he thinking Bran's a hero, or just a battery in the factory?

I'd say neither. I think he's identifying Bran as the Crow God [Bran the Blessed] and knows that the Prince that was Promised is going to sort things out without cleansing the world with fire or otherwise heroically slaughtering everything in sight.

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Why, it comes from a Woods Witch reputed or otherwise advertised to be a Child of the Forest.

Why then would the Children co-operate with the Targaryens. Fortune tellers and prophets prosper by telling their listeners what they want to believe. How better to hide and protect the true Prince than by telling the Targaryens he [or she] will be one of their own?

It's not as though she was invited to the Targaryen court to pander to them and tell them what they want to her--she was Jenny of Oldstones' companion, and pretty clearly the GoHH, or a close relative. We've met the GoHH, and she's a loopy woman who receives dreams from the weirwood, so why would she bother with such a specific, calculated lie?

And, assuming it's a lie, where's our alternative context? Where's all of the text that more thoroughly associates the TptwP with the CotF, perhaps with Bran himself?

If it were just the Targaryens that believe that who they're waiting for is a Targaryen that'd be one thing, but even Melisandre seems to believe that AA should have the blood of the dragon.

Unfortunately, as it stands, it's not really clear where TPTWP prophecy came from, whether it's an actual prophecy, and what TPTWP is supposedly destined to do, since all we have to go on is Rhaegar's "song of ice and fire comment," and Aemon's words as he declines:

_______
"No," the old man said. "It must be you. Tell them. The prophecy . . . my brother's dream . . . Lady Melisandre has misread the signs. Stannis . . . Stannis has some of the dragon blood in him, yes. His brothers did as well. Rhaelle, Egg's little girl, she was how they came by it . . . their father's mother . . . she used to call me Uncle Maester when she was a little girl. I remembered that, so I allowed myself to hope . . . perhaps I wanted to . . . we all deceive ourselves, when we want to believe. Melisandre most of all, I think. The sword is wrong, she has to know that . . . light without heat . . . an empty glamor . . . the sword is wrong, and the false light can only lead us deeper into darkness, Sam. Daenerys is our hope. Tell them that, at the Citadel. Make them listen. They must send her a maester. Daenerys must be counseled, taught, protected. For all these years I've lingered, waiting, watching, and now that the day has dawned I am too old. I am dying, Sam."
______

While we don't know for an absolute fact that he's talking about Rhaegar's "Prince that was Promised" here, it seems a likely enough inference, and once again there's talk of dragon's blood and burning swords. Heck, even the Last Hero is associated with dragonsteel, so I'm going to hazard a guess that this isn't just eastern mysticism being shoehorned into the Westerosi magic landscape.

Additional thought: Aemon's comment about "my brother's dream" is interesting--is he talking about a dragon dream related to the prophecy, or was one of Aemon's brothers the origin of TPTWP prophecy?

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While we don't know for an absolute fact that he's talking about Rhaegar's "Prince that was Promised" here, it seems a likely enough inference, and once again there's talk of dragon's blood and burning swords. Heck, even the 

Additional thought: Aemon's comment about "my brother's dream" is interesting--is he talking about a dragon dream related to the prophecy, or was one of Aemon's brothers the origin of TPTWP prophecy?

Aemon did have a brother who had prophetic dreams and was also a drunk. His dumb ass died drinking wildfire. Guess he didn't dream that outcome. Not sure how trusted his dreams should be or were. It seems the TPTWP info came from the ancient Valryian scrolls that Rhaegar poured over.

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Aemon did have a brother who had prophetic dreams and was also a drunk. His dumb ass died drinking wildfire. Guess he didn't dream that outcome. Not sure how trusted his dreams should be or were. It seems the TPTWP info came from the ancient Valryian scrolls that Rhaegar poured over.

Wasn't it the asshole Targ from the Hedge Knight who died from drinking wildfire? Daeron the Drunken dies from a pox.

Here's the Mystery Knight's reference to his dream, as well as a prophecy:


Egg lowered his voice. "Someday the dragons will return. My brother Daeron's dreamed of it, and King Aerys read it in a prophecy. Maybe it will be my egg that hatches. That would be splendid."

"Would it?" Dunk had his doubts.
_____

So, Daeron didn't specifically dream TPTWP prophecy, but King Aerys did read a prophecy about the dragons returning. Which is still odd, especially if the prophecy is Valyrian in origin.

Why would the Valyrians prophecy some promised day when the dragons would return, when they never disappeared from Valyria in the first place? Well, until the Doom, at which point there was nobody left in Valyria to do much in the way of prophesizing.

Similarly, the Targaryens had dragons until the reign of Aegon III, so does this mean that they foresaw the death and rebirth of the dragons? Or, alternately, is the TPTWP prophecy less than 150 years old, or not Valyrian in origin?
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So, Daeron didn't specifically dream TPTWP prophecy, but King Aerys did read a prophecy about the dragons returning. Which is still odd, especially if the prophecy is Valyrian in origin.

Why would the Valyrians prophecy some promised day when the dragons would return, when they never disappeared from Valyria in the first place? Well, until the Doom, at which point there was nobody left in Valyria to do much in the way of prophesizing.

Similarly, the Targaryens had dragons until the reign of Aegon III, so does this mean that they foresaw the death and rebirth of the dragons? Or, alternately, is the TPTWP prophecy less than 150 years old, or not Valyrian in origin?

Oh for a copy of "Signs and Portents" B)  I suspect this is where most of the Targ prophecy based stuff comes from.  I even suspect that Aegon I may have been trying to fulfill a prophecy when he took Westeros, or at least fulfilling some part of a prophecy.  This leads me back to a point I made upthread about Torrhen Stark, I suspect he was greendreamer and for whatever reason saw something which led him to surrender to Aegon. 

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I think that Butcher Crow is absolutely right about wanting a copy of "Signs and Portents." Daenys the Dreamer IIRC was one of the ones and possibly the first with visions of the PtwP. Daeron the Drunk did have prophetic dreams but I'm not sure he had any about this. The brother that I believe Maester Aemon is referring to is Egg. He also had Dragon dreams with the end result being whatever happened at Summerhall. 

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OK, all prophesy is crap. Why? It is what those who can influence such a thought want you to think.

Who is TPtwP promised too?

Maybe it's a bit crackpot, but was it part of the Pact? We get a 100 pieces of dragonglass a year and yadda yadda, and they eventually get a promised prince over due time i.e. Bran. Sounding like a Sidhe deal yet?

Prophesy is crap, it is just a means of those who can "spread the word" over time and to many minds to turn one against another and eventually put humanity into such disarray, that Planetos is ripe for taking...with little physical effort at all

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Butcher its nice to see you back,just in time for the switch!!! You would like Frey Family Reunion's and maybe my essay as well,both of us have brought up the Beltane ritual in our essays.Which brings me to this .The first Heresy X+Y=J essay is up in this section.

Just FYI Linda said that that everything we are posting right now on the new, updated forum will be probably be lost when the old data is restored, so you might want to hold off on more of the paternity essays until the upgrade is finalized. 

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Oh for a copy of "Signs and Portents" B)  I suspect this is where most of the Targ prophecy based stuff comes from.  I even suspect that Aegon I may have been trying to fulfill a prophecy when he took Westeros, or at least fulfilling some part of a prophecy.  

The World Book makes that view of Aegon seem more likely, since the section about the conquest paints him as someone who was content to leave the day-to-day ruling to his sisters, and who didn't take any particular joy in combat. Given the way he's characterized, it seems odd that he would undertake the ambitious goal of conquering a continent..

That said, I completely forgot about Aemon's other ramble about tPtwP:

"No one ever looked for a girl," he said. "It was a prince that was promised, not a princess. Rhaegar, I thought . . . the smoke was from the fire that devoured Summerhall on the day of his birth, the salt from the tears shed for those who died. He shared my belief when he was young, but later he became persuaded that it was his own son who fulfilled the prophecy, for a comet had been seen above King's Landing on the night Aegon was conceived, and Rhaegar was certain the bleeding star had to be a comet. What fools we were, who thought ourselves so wise! The error crept in from the translation. Dragons are neither male nor female, Barth saw the truth of that, but now one and now the other, as changeable as flame. The language misled us all for a thousand years. Daenerys is the one, born amidst salt and smoke. The dragons prove it." Just talking of her seemed to make him stronger. "I must go to her. I must. Would that I was even ten years younger."

Unless Aemon is being very hyperbolic here, the prophecy has to be even older than Daenys the Dreamer. This quote also makes it seem much more likely that TPTWP and AAR are the same figure, unless one or the other - Aemon or Melisandre - is conflating information. 

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The World Book makes that view of Aegon seem more likely, since the section about the conquest paints him as someone who was content to leave the day-to-day ruling to his sisters, and who didn't take any particular joy in combat. Given the way he's characterized, it seems odd that he would undertake the ambitious goal of conquering a continent..

That said, I completely forgot about Aemon's other ramble about tPtwP:

Unless Aemon is being very hyperbolic here, the prophecy has to be even older than Daenys the Dreamer. This quote also makes it seem much more likely that TPTWP and AAR are the same figure, unless one or the other - Aemon or Melisandre - is conflating information. 

The "thousand years" comment is frankly mental.  It implies Targs have been waiting for a prince since 500 years before The Doom which is just hard to believe..  One possibility is that the the AAR prophecy was co-opted by the Valyrians and then elaborated on by Daenys who then predicts the prince will come from House Targaryen.  I would suspect that S&P contains a transcription of the prophecy in high valyrian and the translation issues have arisen when this has been converted to the common tongue.  

The mistranslation itself is interesting.  Many have suggested that the word is not "prince" but "dragon" thus giving us a prophecy about a "dragon that was promised".  That's all well and good, it certainly ties up nicely.  Unfortunately it cannot be true because the word "dragon" exists in the common tongue.  If the phrase was "dragon that was promised" then it would be translated as such.  No, the word mistranslated from valyrian must be a valyrian word which doesn't have a direct analogue in the common tongue.  

So why's Aemon waffling on about the transient nature of dragon gender?  I think the answer comes from Aemon himself, "the sphinx was the riddle, not the riddler" (although not a direct quote, Sam reports it as such).  What am i talking about?  Here's a description of the sphinxes in the Citadel from Feast:

 The gates of the Citadel were flanked by a pair of towering green sphinxes with the bodies of lions, the wings of eagles, and the tails of serpents. One had a man’s face, one a woman’s.

So these are what we would recognise as a classic sphinx, note however that they do stand as male/female pair.  

Now look at the description of a Valyrian sphinx from Dance:

The next evening they came upon a huge Valyrian sphinx crouched beside the road. It had a dragon’s body and a woman’s face. “A dragon queen,” said Tyrion. “A pleasant omen.” “Her king is missing.” Illyrio pointed out the smooth stone plinth on which the second sphinx once stood, now grown over with moss and flowering vines. “The horselords built wooden wheels beneath him and dragged him back to Vaes Dothrak."

So the obvious difference between sphinxes is that the valyrian style is simply half-human/half-dragon, notably Tyrion calls the statue a "dragon queen" and this gives a big clue to the translation snafu.  We know that valyrians did not style themselves kings but it would seem outside of valyria the term "dragon king" or dragon queen" may have been used to describe them.  To give a contemporary example, the dothraki do not style themselves "lords" yet in the above quote Illyrio calls them what in the common? "Horselords".  If the westerosi (specifically I would guess, from the andal migration onward) called valyrians "dragon kings" then what is the logical name for their children? "Dragon prince/princess".  My belief is that the term in valyrian bears closes relation to the french word "dauphin" or "crown prince" in the common.  In other words, the title bestowed upon the heir of a house and because the valyrians clearly saw themselves as part dragon, or at least projected that image (look at the iconography of the sphinxes) then, of course their styles and titles had no specific gender.  I reckon that's as good an explanation as any as to how the word could be confused.

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I think that Butcher Crow is absolutely right

I'm just gonna pull that and put it in my sig, that's not disingenuous is it ? B)  lol.   

So I'm bored and this may all get deleted anyway so I'm gonna roll out one of my greatest hits for the new folk who don't know me.  

The Wolf in the Woods theory (abridged version)

 

Before the First Men came all this land that you call Westeros was home to us, yet even in those days we were few. The gods gave us long lives but not great numbers, lest we overrun the world as deer will overrun a wood where there are no wolves to hunt them. That was in the dawn of days, when our sun was rising. Now it sinks, and this is our long dwindling.

This is a quote from Leaf in the last Bran chapter and it haunts me.  The short version of this theory is summed up in a question; if you are of a race that believes the gods limited your species ability to expand, how do you reconcile the fact that the gods do not seem to have made the same consideration towards humans?   It may be that you come to the conclusion that since the gods gave your species certain gifts, they mean for you to be the ones to create balance. It may be then that you observe the humans and note that their biggest enemy is themselves and that human nature will, for the most part, keep their numbers in check.  Every so often, you would find, that a certain group of humans, a specific society would grow so large that they would threaten to take over the whole world, thus dramatically reducing the number of human conflicts which so excellently keep our numbers down.  In this instance one might be persuaded to create conflict or by some means bring about the downfall of that society.  As Bran notes however, the children aren't exactly that way inclined.  Men on the other hand...   What if the singers needed humans in order to weaponize greenseeing?  So they go to a northern house with a penchant for Direwolves and the colour grey and they say, "we can give you the power to rule the north".  The Starks eagerly accept the gifts of greendreaming and skinchanging and willingly pay the cost.  Basically, they get to keep the skinchangers but if any greendreamers are born to the Starks then that poor kid gets sent north to the anti-hobbits.

 

Discuss (and ridicule) as desired.

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As to the antiquity of prophecies I don't doubt that the Prince goes back 1,000 years or more. Mel claims Azor Ahai goes back even further. What I'm suggesting is that there is a root prophecy which everyone is trying to claim for their own. 

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I'm just gonna pull that and put it in my sig, that's not disingenuous is it ? B)  lol.   

So I'm bored and this may all get deleted anyway so I'm gonna roll out one of my greatest hits for the new folk who don't know me.  

The Wolf in the Woods theory (abridged version)

 

This is a quote from Leaf in the last Bran chapter and it haunts me.  The short version of this theory is summed up in a question; if you are of a race that believes the gods limited your species ability to expand, how do you reconcile the fact that the gods do not seem to have made the same consideration towards humans?   It may be that you come to the conclusion that since the gods gave your species certain gifts, they mean for you to be the ones to create balance. It may be then that you observe the humans and note that their biggest enemy is themselves and that human nature will, for the most part, keep their numbers in check.  Every so often, you would find, that a certain group of humans, a specific society would grow so large that they would threaten to take over the whole world, thus dramatically reducing the number of human conflicts which so excellently keep our numbers down.  In this instance one might be persuaded to create conflict or by some means bring about the downfall of that society.  As Bran notes however, the children aren't exactly that way inclined.  Men on the other hand...   What if the singers needed humans in order to weaponize greenseeing?  So they go to a northern house with a penchant for Direwolves and the colour grey and they say, "we can give you the power to rule the north".  The Starks eagerly accept the gifts of greendreaming and skinchanging and willingly pay the cost.  Basically, they get to keep the skinchangers but if any greendreamers are born to the Starks then that poor kid gets sent north to the anti-hobbits.

 

Discuss (and ridicule) as desired.

Hence the requirement for the Prince that was Promised - to restore that balance as may have been tried before with the Long Night. The present trouble being that different people have different ideas as to how this might be achieved, eg: the Red lot are looking to cleanse the world by fire of all but the elect - remember Mel's inward remark about the Wildlings being doomed.

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As to the antiquity of prophecies I don't doubt that the Prince goes back 1,000 years or more. Mel claims Azor Ahai goes back even further. What I'm suggesting is that there is a root prophecy which everyone is trying to claim for their own. 

Exactly right and that root prophecy must come from Asshai and (as far as I can see) must be roughly contemporary to the end of the long night, when the original figure who is foretold as returning made his debut. 

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Hence the requirement for the Prince that was Promised - to restore that balance as may have been tried before with the Long Night. The present trouble being that different people have different ideas as to how this might be achieved, eg: the Red lot are looking to cleanse the world by fire of all but the elect - remember Mel's inward remark about the Wildlings being doomed.

Well the Long Night was (imo) an unintended consequence of attempting to bring balance.  The treehuggers created (perhaps unintentionally) the WW's and they were unable to control them  That's when I reckon the deal was struck with the Starks because the treehuggers needed a human greenseer to control the WW, enter Brandon Stark aka The Last Hero.  I forget BC, do you subscribe to the theory that the Long Night was A LOT further into antiquity than the septons & maesters would have us believe?  I always found that it reconciles the problematic age of heroes quite nicely.  If we discount the age of heroes as a later Andal romantic fantasy and have the LN happen just after the hammer then things make a lot more sense.

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Aemon did have a brother who had prophetic dreams and was also a drunk. His dumb ass died drinking wildfire. Guess he didn't dream that outcome. Not sure how trusted his dreams should be or were. It seems the TPTWP info came from the ancient Valryian scrolls that Rhaegar poured over.

Actually, all of Aemon's brothers appear to have had such dreams to some extend. 

“The last dragon died before you were born,” said Sam. “How could you remember them?”
“I see them in my dreams, Sam. I see a red star bleeding in the sky. I still remember red. I see their shadows on the snow, hear the crack of leathern wings, feel their hot breath. My brothers dreamed of dragons too, and the dreams killed them, every one. Sam, we tremble on the cusp of half-remembered prophecies, of wonders and terrors that no man now living could hope to comprehend... or...”

We can wonder, of course, whether Aemon is talking about the type of prophetic dreams like we certainly know his eldest brother, Daeron the Drunken, had, or whether Aerion and Aegon dreamt of dragons in the sense of "I wish I could have a dragon"...

For Aegon, it is a toss up.. 

 

But there was no great urgency to them, and King Aegon remained intent on his reign.

And intent on one more thing: dragons. As he grew older, Aegon V had come to dream of dragons flying once more above the Seven Kingdoms of Westeros. In this, he was not unlike his predecessors, who brought septons to pray over the last eggs, mages to work spells over them, and maesters to pore over them. Though friends and counselors sought to dissuade him, King Aegon grew ever more convinced that only with dragons would he ever wield sufficient power to make the changes he wished to make in the realm and force the proud and stubborn lords of the Seven Kingdoms to accept his decrees.

[..]

What became of the dream of dragons was a grievous tragedy born in a moment of joy. In the fateful year 259 AC, the king summoned many of those closest to him to Summerhall, his favorite castle, there to celebrate the impending birth of his first great-grandchild, a boy later named Rhaegar, to his grandson Aerys and granddaughter Rhaella, the children of Prince Jaehaerys.

 

Personally, I'd say that this passage implies that Aegon simply dreamed of hatching a dragon, in a way that we would dream of, say going to that one country we've never been before.

On the other hand, knowing the Targaryen history of prophetic dreams, and knowing how Aemon will have been aware of that, and considering how he describes the dragons he has dreamed of himself... I'd say it is still a possibility that Aegon's dreams were more than 'just a dream', but might have gone more towards the prophetic dream.

If so, it is possible that the Tragedy of Summerhall came to be because Aegon V had dreamed the hatching attempt would work. It would be in line with the Daeron-type of dreams (or even the Daemon II-type of dreams) that, instead of hatching an actual egg, Summerhall was to be the birthing place of a figurative dragon: Rhaegar.

 

For Aerion, I've long entertained the thought that he too has dreams like his older brother.. A dream, perhaps, of Daenerys in Drogo's funeral pyre, hatching her dragons. If in the dream, Daenerys would be represented as a dragon (as we seen happens to Baelor in Daeron's dream), it might have caused Aerion to believe that consumption of fire might lead to the birth of a dragon (thus misinterpreting his dream completely), leading to him drinking the wildfire when he was drunk. It is of course possible he dreamt something completely different, and that his drinking wildfire had nothing at all to do with any dream at all, but seeing as how Aemon claims the dreams 'killed them, every one', I'd say that such a dream was in some direct or indirect way responsible for Aerion drinking the wildfire.

After all, we know that Daeron died from the pox he got from a whore, so I'd say that in his case, at least, the dreams were the indirect cause.. As we've seen in The Hedge Knight, his dreams are in a way responsible for his lifestyle, making him feel miserable, searching for a way not to feel like that. Hence Aemon's hope that, when he dies, he'll find Daeron "whole and happy" again.

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Exactly right and that root prophecy must come from Asshai and (as far as I can see) must be roughly contemporary to the end of the long night, when the original figure who is foretold as returning made his debut. 

It's possible that there is no singular point of origin for the prophecy. As a comparison, think of Robb's death, which is glimpsed by Dany in the HotU, Patchface, and even Theon while he's sleeping in Winterfell. Several dreamers and prophets may have glimpsed a vision of the same figure - heralded by a bleeding star and wielding a burning sword - and come to wildly different interpretations.

I do, however, agree that if it came from anywhere, it came from Asshai; the shadowbinders, in particular, seem to have knowledge of waking dragons from stone.

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