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Is Doran trying to get his family killed off?


The Sleeper

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He can hardly send a raven to Meereen.  Nor can a raven be his eyes and ears on the Small Council and in the Great Sept.  And, a raven can scarcely form a judgment about the trustworthiness of Jon Connington.

But he doesn't need to send his son, daughter and nieces either.

It ha been established that he already has eyes and ears in King's Landing. He also has other people in his service. He has a whole administation in sunspear with all sorts of people working for him, many with greater experience than the people he did send do. 

Any experienced statesperson would do to hold his seat for him in the Small Council. Likewise an embassy could be sent to Daenerys without such radical instructions as to feel them out. And if Connington's trustworthiness is an issue why would he sent his own heiress as a potential hostage.

Tyenne may be the safest one as she is presumably posing as a random septa without any known affiliations.

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Here is the thing that completely confuses me. 

Its all great that Doran had a marriage pact for his daughter to marry Viserys.  But first - William Darry signed it - he is not Targeryen is such thing binding at all on Viserys and Dany's part?

Secondly, Doran kept it so secret that he didn't bother telling Viserys about it - for 15 years! He might have been immature when pact was signed (child of less than 10 yrs old) but the time he died he was more than 25. In all that time Doran never bothered to send someone to help him out, to at least give him hope. His situation as "Beggar Prince" is what drove relatively unstable Viserys into madness. 

Then, Doran on his own presumes that the pact sort of applies to Dany - even though her name is not on it and then he waits AGAIN! It took at least a year ( I think) from the time Drogo and Viserys had died for Dany to get to the Maureen. Doran, through his spies, knew that Viserys and Drogo had died and Dany was newly available but in desparate straits. He waited AGAIN. Only when Dany conquered Maureen and got riches and power, Doran bothered to send out his son.

Basically, in Dorans mind that the pact was only enforceable on Targs part. If they got to the point of conquering and power then he intended to get them to enforce the pact. If Dany and Viserys never got anywhere, would Doran had still enforced the pact or had his daughter and son marry someone more suitable?

So that begs the question, why would Doran think that the pact stll had power and Dany was obliged to enforce it, especially he never gave her and Viserys any support at all?

 

 

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But he doesn't need to send his son, daughter and nieces either.

It ha been established that he already has eyes and ears in King's Landing. He also has other people in his service. He has a whole administation in sunspear with all sorts of people working for him, many with greater experience than the people he did send do. 

Any experienced statesperson would do to hold his seat for him in the Small Council. Likewise an embassy could be sent to Daenerys without such radical instructions as to feel them out. And if Connington's trustworthiness is an issue why would he sent his own heiress as a potential hostage.

Tyenne may be the safest one as she is presumably posing as a random septa without any known affiliations.

This. 

I mean, I get sending Oberyn to KL. He was a hot head, true, but he hadn't done anything particularly impulsive until the PW happened and he got to fight Gregor. Plus, he was also good PR in that he represented Dorne, so a weak and feeble Doran being the face of the Martells in KL wasn't gonna fly.

I can also fanwank it as to why he sent Quentyn in an obvious suicide mission the kid was clearly not suited for. My guess is Doran suspected the Yronwoods would try to use Quentyn in a bid to claim Sunspear and overthrow the Martells. Basically, Doran gave up on Quentyn the moment he sent him to Anders, so the whole Mission Impossible: Meereen was a win-win situation for Doran: Cletus Yronwood dies along with Quentyn the Soon to be Political Tool? Win for Doran. Quentyn succeeds against all odds and gets the girl? Win for Doran. 

But the Arianne thing? No, I don't get that, it's just stupid. You simply don't send your heir - who just recently fucked up big time, mind you - into the middle of a war zone to deal with sellswords of dubious loyalty. Oh, he needed Arianne to evaluate JonCon and give him her seal of approval? Right, because Arianne showed she had the best judgement by playing everyone's favorite party game: "Put the crown on the Lannister bastard!" And you know who else had Arianne's seal of approval? Hint: he is of the night. Tyene and Nym have even a worse judgment, but at least they're bastards and therefore more dispensable than the freaking Princess of Dorne!

Frankly, the only thing that would make this decision seem a bit less idiotic would be if Doran was in on the BF plot from before and therefore has some sort of reassurance the sellswords aren't gonna hurt/kidnap Arianne.

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Doran isn't sending Arianne to Connington. He's sending Daeron to Connington to figure out if he's the real guy when he shows to be completely indifferent towards her (yes, Doran knows. Don't know how but he knows, I'm sure!).

 

("dear brother, people in KL are nice. This guy is totally gay for my hubby. take care. Elia")

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This.

I mean, I get sending Oberyn to KL. He was a hot head, true, but he hadn't done anything particularly impulsive until the PW happened and he got to fight Gregor. Plus, he was also good PR in that he represented Dorne, so a weak and feeble Doran being the face of the Martells in KL wasn't gonna fly.

I can also fanwank it as to why he sent Quentyn in an obvious suicide mission the kid was clearly not suited for. My guess is Doran suspected the Yronwoods would try to use Quentyn in a bid to claim Sunspear and overthrow the Martells. Basically, Doran gave up on Quentyn the moment he sent him to Anders, so the whole Mission Impossible: Meereen was a win-win situation for Doran: Cletus Yronwood dies along with Quentyn the Soon to be Political Tool? Win for Doran. Quentyn succeeds against all odds and gets the girl? Win for Doran.

But the Arianne thing? No, I don't get that, it's just stupid. You simply don't send your heir - who just recently fucked up big time, mind you - into the middle of a war zone to deal with sellswords of dubious loyalty. Oh, he needed Arianne to evaluate JonCon and give him her seal of approval? Right, because Arianne showed she had the best judgement by playing everyone's favorite party game: "Put the crown on the Lannister bastard!" And you know who else had Arianne's seal of approval? Hint: he is of the night. Tyene and Nym have even a worse judgment, but at least they're bastards and therefore more dispensable than the freaking Princess of Dorne!

Frankly, the only thing that would make this decision seem a bit less idiotic would be if Doran was in on the BF plot from before and therefore has some sort of reassurance the sellswords aren't gonna hurt/kidnap Arianne.

Doran had two choices, after Arianne's failed coup, and the Sand Snakes' rabble-rousing. Execute Arianne, Nymeria, Tyene, and Obara, or forgive them and make use of them. He chose the latter. There's no point having a ruling family that doesn't actually do anything. Why would you entrust your most secret plans to anyone other than your closest relatives?

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Doran had two choices, after Arianne's failed coup, and the Sand Snakes' rabble-rousing. Execute Arianne, Nymeria, Tyene, and Obara, or forgive them and make use of them. He chose the latter. There's no point having a ruling family that doesn't actually do anything. Why would you entrust your most secret plans to anyone other than your closest relatives?

I get that he's working with what he has, but why not send Nym and Daemon to meet JonCon? Why doesn't he go to KL and take the seat in the Small Council?

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I get that he's working with what he has, but why not send Nym and Daemon to meet JonCon? Why doesn't he go to KL and take the seat in the Small Council?

He's too ill to travel. If he sends Nym and Daemon to treat with Jon Con, he's showing he has no confidence in his daughter. And, Aegon & Co. might see it as an insult to have two bastards as envoys.

Possibly, Doran should have no confidence in Arianne (I think that would be unfair to her) but if so, what use is she?

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I get that he's working with what he has, but why not send Nym and Daemon to meet JonCon? Why doesn't he go to KL and take the seat in the Small Council?

He is preparing for the possibility of war, he can't really do that a thousand or so miles away at Kings Landing. He has to be in the political centre of Dorne to make sure it happens.

Arrianne is sent to Aegon for the same reason that Robb sent his mother to deal with Renly and Stannis and that the Small Council had to make Littlefinger a powerful Lord to deal with the Tyrells. Sending a bastard is going to be seen as disrespectful.

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I get that he's working with what he has, but why not send Nym and Daemon to meet JonCon? Why doesn't he go to KL and take the seat in the Small Council?

I think he doesn't travel because is part of his "i'm a weak old dude" facade, not to say that he actually can't move and probably is very hard for him to travel. My father had gout and transport him, even to the hospital, it was an odyssey. (seriously, try to make a person who cannot flex his legs get into a car... two big dudes couldn't carry him either).

 

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Why Doran sends Nym, Tyene and Arianne? Because Westeros is very sexist.

Edmure Tully travels with an army: omg, war!

Robb Stark travels with an army: omg, war!

Jaime Lanister travels with an army: omg, war!

Arianne Martell travels with an army: lol, she's probably on her way to meet a betrothal, how cute!

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OP, I actually like your theory.  Personally, I was pretty infuriated with Doran (and GRRM TBH) after ADWD for basically proving to be a complete incompetent idiot rather than the subtle genius as the text portrays him.  So this if true would at least somewhat make up for that

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