if R+L=J is true...

[corbon]

46 minutes ago, purple-eyes said:

Believe or not, if you watch those gossips about female celebrities, if one goes missing for half year or longer, no matter if there is a man involved in the news or not, people will gossip that she possibly goes to deliver a baby. Or in a simpler case, in college, if a girl decides to quit for one year, many people will guess she goes home to have a child. 

But she didn't just 'go missing for a year'. She was abducted and over a year later her bones turned up (what most people know).
Yes, a young women who drops out of her normal life for a year and then returns, people have some suspicions. Ashara probably falls into that category. But one that just disappears and turns up dead a year later, with the man reapppeared separately months earlier, you don't all go looking for a baby...

46 minutes ago, purple-eyes said:

Not to mention in rhaegar's case, no matter it is a love story, or a raping story, there is sex life involved.

Is there? Says who? Oh, yeah, Robert with his obviously bullshit story about 100 rapes. OTOH we have dutiful Rhaegar who is described as anti-rape and honourable. Chances are most people don't think 'lots of sex' as their go to option.
Barristan (one of few who had any chance to talk with Rhaegar) does say Rhaegar loved Lyanna, but he of all people understands that love does not always equal sex.
And as you yourself frequently go on at great length about, it doesn't look honourable for Rhaegar to be sleeping with Lyanna while married to Elia.

46 minutes ago, purple-eyes said:

Nobody will think they went missing for one year or half a year just to sit down together and sing songs. And nobody argue with you that raping must make a baby.

You did. You exclaimed with scorn that 1000 x rape will likely generate a child. Then you backed it up repeatedly.

46 minutes ago, purple-eyes said:

But several months of either raping, or sweet love making, has a high chance to create a child for rhaegar and lyanna's case. 

And here you are again. But there is no evidence (available to most of westeros) beyond Robert's clearly bullshit belief of 1000 rapes, that there was any sexual activity. Or that they were together for months. They disappeared on one place, they reappeared in different, separate places, months apart and months and months later. They might have been together for 5 minutes or 10 months, most people in westeros have no clue to pick between the two.

46 minutes ago, purple-eyes said:

You can insist nobody would feel suspicious about RLJ or put the puzzle together, this is your opinion. Many previous threads would not agree with you. Including the one you are answering. 

And you are mis-characterising the entire discussion. People in westeros aren't suspicious of R+L=J. Thats the fact we are dealing with. I explain why they don't and you come rushing in with your scorn and bad arguments (half of them made up entirely) insisting that they should be suspicious. I'm not insisting anything, just explaining the facts. You, on the other hand, are insisting that black is white.
Perhaps you could just state a disagreeing opinion, maybe back up your opinion with some quotes (I know, I know, can't do that because the quotes all run counter to what you argue!) and leave it at that?

[Wm Portnoy]

They don't have the means to prove that theory over there.  Jon looks like a surfboard with a wig.  He looks nothing like a dragon. 

[purple-eyes]

1 hour ago, corbon said:

But she didn't just 'go missing for a year'. She was abducted and over a year later her bones turned up (what most people know).
Yes, a young women who drops out of her normal life for a year and then returns, people have some suspicions. Ashara probably falls into that category. But one that just disappears and turns up dead a year later, with the man reapppeared separately months earlier, you don't all go looking for a baby...

Is there? Says who? Oh, yeah, Robert with his obviously bullshit story about 100 rapes. OTOH we have dutiful Rhaegar who is described as anti-rape and honourable. Chances are most people don't think 'lots of sex' as their go to option.
Barristan (one of few who had any chance to talk with Rhaegar) does say Rhaegar loved Lyanna, but he of all people understands that love does not always equal sex.
And as you yourself frequently go on at great length about, it doesn't look honourable for Rhaegar to be sleeping with Lyanna while married to Elia.

You did. You exclaimed with scorn that 1000 x rape will likely generate a child. Then you backed it up repeatedly.

And here you are again. But there is no evidence (available to most of westeros) beyond Robert's clearly bullshit belief of 1000 rapes, that there was any sexual activity. Or that they were together for months. They disappeared on one place, they reappeared in different, separate places, months apart and months and months later. They might have been together for 5 minutes or 10 months, most people in westeros have no clue to pick between the two.

And you are mis-characterising the entire discussion. People in westeros aren't suspicious of R+L=J. Thats the fact we are dealing with. I explain why they don't and you come rushing in with your scorn and bad arguments (half of them made up entirely) insisting that they should be suspicious. I'm not insisting anything, just explaining the facts. You, on the other hand, are insisting that black is white.
Perhaps you could just state a disagreeing opinion, maybe back up your opinion with some quotes (I know, I know, can't do that because the quotes all run counter to what you argue!) and leave it at that?

A man abducted one young woman and they missed for several months and hid in some secret place and this man happened to name her as his queen of love and beauty in public just recently. I think people have good reason to believe they were having sex, not just innocently reading books, plant roses and sing songs together. Rebellion side thought she was raped, Loyalists thought they were in love. Either one, there is sex life. Rhaegar is not a KG who swore for celibacy by the way.

I do not know why you feel so hard to believe this, but several months of active sex life (no matter it is raping or sweet lovely honeymoon) has a decent chance to make this woman pregnant. 

And yes, people heard that "Rhaegar stayed in the south with Lyanna in a place called TOJ". So they were there and they were together.

And if Rhaegar abducted Lyanna and both of them missed for quite a while since then, then people have good reason to believe they were together. Rhaegar showed up after several months, Lyanna was found after several more months, then? this can prove they were not together in the first several months? What is this logic?

 

[Melisandre's White Pubes]

And we don't know what people suspect or don't suspect.  GRRM does not have to show every inner thought of every character and he clearly doesn't, when it serves his literary purposes, and if Jon Connington or Tywin Lannister or any character with memories of that time had heard a rumor or had entertained thoughts that Jon Snow MIGHT be the child of Rhaegar and Lyanna years ago, there would be no reason for then to be talking or even thinking about it now a decade and a half later.  It wouldn't even be deceptive writing ot "cheating", especially since we have a POV character for whom it is much more personal and not just a rumor who doesn't think about it in the book.  We go through books without knowing that people suspect that the Starks practiced human sacrifice in fairly recent history, and then find out this is common knowledge even among people not from the North.  For all we know, Jon Snow MIGHT suspect it himself and was hoping that Ned would admit it one day.

As I pointed out before, it's the kind of rumor that would not be investigated because there is no point in doing so - even those with an interest in discovering Targ bastards would know that there is no way to prove it and for very obvious reasons those who would know would NEVER admit it.

[purple-eyes]

4 minutes ago, A Song of Ass and Fire said:

And we don't know what people suspect or don't suspect.  GRRM does not have to show every inner thought of every character and he clearly doesn't, when it serves his literary purposes, and if Jon Connington or Tywin Lannister or any character with memories of that time had heard a rumor or had entertained thoughts that Jon Snow MIGHT be the child of Rhaegar and Lyanna years ago, there would be no reason for then to be talking or even thinking about it now a decade and a half later.  It wouldn't even be deceptive writing ot "cheating", especially since we have a POV character for whom it is much more personal and not just a rumor who doesn't think about it in the book.  We go through books without knowing that people suspect that the Starks practiced human sacrifice in fairly recent history, and then find out this is common knowledge even among people not from the North.  For all we know, Jon Snow MIGHT suspect it himself and is hoping that Ned will admit it one day.

This made me smile.

Jon: where are my dragons?!!

[Melisandre's White Pubes]

1 minute ago, purple-eyes said:

This made me smile.

Jon: where are my dragons?!!

That could explain some of his "prophetic" dreams without a need for magic - he subconsciously suspects that he is a Targ bastard so dreams of himself wearing Targ colors.

[purple-eyes]

3 minutes ago, A Song of Ass and Fire said:

That could explain some of his "prophetic" dreams without a need for magic - he subconsciously suspects that he is a Targ bastard so dreams of himself wearing Targ colors.

And also his weird thinking about woman's body and arya stuff.

He felt maybe he is just her cousin.

 

[Melisandre's White Pubes]

4 minutes ago, purple-eyes said:

And also his weird thinking about woman's body and arya stuff.

He felt maybe he is just her cousin.

 

And why he wasn't more insistent that Ned tell him about his mother... He knows, and he understands why Ned can't tell him.  Maybe that is part of why he was eager to go to the Wall, he figured once he had, it would be safe for Ned to confirm it for him... and he started thinking about it after Roberts visit and after his talk with Benjen.

[Melisandre's White Pubes]

I've also been thinking about the story about now GRRM asked D&D who Jon Snow's mother was, and he agreed to let them do the show after they gave an answer.  The popular belief is that they answered "Lyanna" and he was approving of that, but does that make any sense?  GRRM is aware that R+L=J has been the most popular theory of Snow's parentage for over a decade, and anybody who does any research into the book at all is going to find that theory in their face everywhere they look.  And if he just asked who the mother is, Lyanna is also the mother in many of the most popular alternate theories as well…why would GRRM be impressed with that?

I'm thinking that he may have been looking for a different answer, or maybe even the WRONG answer.  Maybe he wanted to be sure that they were convinced of his red herring theory so they would not spoil his surprise when the books make their reveal.  Maybe he was impressed by them saying "We aren't sure" or "We think Lyanna, but have no idea who the father is" since so much of fandom seems to be utterly convinced of their theory.  Maybe they answered "Ashara Dayne" or "Wylla the Wetnurse" and he was happy that they were textual literalists.  We don't know, do we?

The more I think about it, I think R+L=J may not just be a red herring, it may be a commonly held theory in-universe as well.

[Ferocious Veldt Roarer]

10 minutes ago, A Song of Ass and Fire said:

I've also been thinking about the story about now GRRM asked D&D who Jon Snow's mother was, and he agreed to let them do the show after they gave an answer.  The popular belief is that they answered "Lyanna" and he was approving of that, but does that make any sense?

Yes, it makes perfect sense. The majority of the readers would still get the answer wrong (even today). I don't think GRRM wanted them to fail the question, just to know whether he was talking with serious people.

If George had wanted David and Dan to fail, he'd have demanded the Golden Fleece, a live Cerberus, or maybe a hundred Philistine foreskins.

10 minutes ago, A Song of Ass and Fire said:

  GRRM is aware that R+L=J has been the most popular theory of Snow's parentage for over a decade, and anybody who does any research into the book at all is going to find that theory in their face everywhere they look.  And if he just asked who the mother is, Lyanna is also the mother in many of the most popular alternate theories as well…why would GRRM be impressed with that?

I'm thinking that he may have been looking for a different answer, or maybe even the WRONG answer.  Maybe he wanted to be sure that they were convinced of his red herring theory so they would not spoil his surprise when the books make their reveal.  Maybe he was impressed by them saying "We aren't sure" or "We think Lyanna, but have no idea who the father is" since so much of fandom seems to be utterly convinced of their theory.  Maybe they answered "Ashara Dayne" or "Wylla the Wetnurse" and he was happy that they were textual literalists.  We don't know, do we?

The more I think about it, I think R+L=J may not just be a red herring, it may be a commonly held theory in-universe as well.

You know, there is such thing as "overthinking".

[Fitzochris01]

Darth Vader is Jon's father. It is known.

[RobOsevens]

31 minutes ago, Ferocious Veldt Roarer said:

Yes, it makes perfect sense. The majority of the readers would still get the answer wrong (even today). I don't think GRRM wanted them to fail the question, just to know whether he was talking with serious people.

If George had wanted David and Dan to fail, he'd have demanded the Golden Fleece, a live Cerberus, or maybe a hundred Philistine foreskins.

You know, there is such thing as "overthinking".

Exactly, there are many more fans of the books and the series that are not active on forums like this and to most of them R+L=J will be a huge reveal not something they have seen coming for years

[Melisandre's White Pubes]

19 minutes ago, RobOsevens said:

Exactly, there are many more fans of the books and the series that are not active on forums like this and to most of them R+L=J will be a huge reveal not something they have seen coming for years

But why would GRRM care if they knew, since knowledge of the theories has more to do with whether they are in contact with the fandom than how closely they read the text?  Survey's done on this site have shown that the majority of people admit that they did not guess R+L=J just from reading, and that number is probably a lot smaller than reality as I'm sure there are a lot of people who said they figured it out on their own who didn't.  Them knowing the theory doesn't prove anything about how closely they read the text - one would assume that they would do more than just read the books before talking to him - surely they would have at least watched some of his interviews, read articles about the books, watched a few youtubes - and they would immediately be exposed to R+L=J.  Knowing it would prove nothing.  Knowing it, and having doubts about it, would mean something…even if it is the correct theory (which I have not ruled out, though I lean heavily towards it being a red herring) it would show that they are not the types to jump on a bandwagon and claim they have figured out the ending of his series based on clues and fan theories.  I know, as an author, I'd be much more impressed with somebody who showed some uncertainty about it, and gave an answer like "Well, clues seem to point to Lyanna being the mother, and Rhaegar being the father, but we aren't sure" would stroke GRRMs ego and show they aren't typical fans.

And if it IS a red herring, and they guessed that correctly, chose an alternate theory that happened to be correct, that would definitely make GRRM smile and think "These are the guys to adapt my books."

 

[RobOsevens]

As Ferocious said I think you may be overthinking it but I guess we will have to agree to disagree until we get an answer. 

That could come this spring or in 10 years if you need book confirmation but we will eventually find out

[Lord Manderly's Sous Chef]

I think if anyone important was to suspect this it would have to be a lord with half a brain ie Tywin. Which makes me think they would spend a lot of time and money exploring this possibility. Imagine if Tywin knew this was true he'd have something huge over the Starks which he could of pulled out at any time during the war of the five kings. Also as the POVs we have from people who could easily have this cross their mind such as Tyrion and Cat, and the fact that it never does when Jon is mentioned, I seem to think that its just not there for people of Westeros to come up with. Not enough coincidences or information available without POVs. 

On another thought though, would be a great rumour for anyone wanting to cause the Starks trouble, or during a war, to spread about whether they believed it was true or not. Surprised no one in the Lannister or even Bolton management thought of this.

[The Ned's Little Girl]

22 minutes ago, Lord Manderly's Sous Chef said:

On another thought though, would be a great rumour for anyone wanting to cause the Starks trouble, or during a war, to spread about whether they believed it was true or not. Surprised no one in the Lannister or even Bolton management thought of this.

I think this shows that a lord having a bastard is so commonplace that it's hardly worth remarking on.

Except in Ned's case. However, it's only in relation to Ned and his famous honor that anyone (besides Catelyn) even comments on it. "Oh-so-honorable Ned Stark fell off his high horse long enough to get himself a bastard, the irony is so delicious, isn't it?" They're not thinking of Jon Snow at all (that guy on the Stepstones who lectured Davos about it didn't use Jon's name and neither did Cersei even though she was at Winterfell herself and could easily have learned at least his name had she cared to).

It's all about Ned and his fall from grace.

 

[Melisandre's White Pubes]

20 minutes ago, The Ned's Little Girl said:

I think this shows that a lord having a bastard is so commonplace that it's hardly worth remarking on.

Except in Ned's case. However, it's only in relation to Ned and his famous honor that anyone (besides Catelyn) even comments on it. "Oh-so-honorable Ned Stark fell off his high horse long enough to get himself a bastard, the irony is so delicious, isn't it?" They're not thinking of Jon Snow at all (that guy on the Stepstones who lectured Davos about it didn't use Jon's name and neither did Cersei even though she was at Winterfell herself and could easily have learned at least his name had she cared to).

It's all about Ned and his fall from grace.

 

No, the rumor that Jon Snow is actually a Targaryan bastard that Ned is harboring.  I think Robert knew or suspected anyway, so it wouldn't have hurt Ned much, but in theory it could be a damaging rumor.

[The Ned's Little Girl]

40 minutes ago, A Song of Ass and Fire said:

No, the rumor that Jon Snow is actually a Targaryan bastard that Ned is harboring.  I think Robert knew or suspected anyway, so it wouldn't have hurt Ned much, but in theory it could be a damaging rumor.

But there isn't any rumor that Jon Snow is actually a Targaryen, bastard or otherwise. If you mean, why didn't they start such a rumor, why would they? How would the idea of Jon Snow as a secret Targ even occur to anyone? There's nothing that connects Jon Snow to the Targs of all people.

That was my point. It doesn't seem to occur to anybody that Jon Snow may be other than what he seems to be. The only commentary on "Ned Stark's bastard" is about Ned, not about Jon. Jon is overlooked; he's not the subject of their speculations, Ned is.

Also, if Robert knew or suspected, why did Ned deflect or evade his questions and more importantly, keep Jon's Targaryen heritage secret from everyone including his wife and from Jon himself?

 

[LadyoftheNorth72]

I have always been under the impression that there was some confusion (among the characters) as to exactly where and when and how Lyanna disappeared. From the evidence, she seems to have gone with Rhaegar immediately following the tourney, while her family - scattering in different directions themselves - all seem to assume she's with a different party. If that is the case, it could have been weeks or possibly even months before they realized she was with none of them. 

How *exactly* Brandon came to the conclusion that she'd been kidnapped by Rhaegar has not been revealed yet that I know of, although it was as likely a guess as any, given the contretemps over the tourney crown. 

By the same token, as best we know, only Ned and Howland are privy to precisely when and how Lyanna died. It would have been relatively easy for Ned to obscure that. He obviously spends enough time with the Daynes on his way home for Wylla to become Jon's wet nurse, and to allow vague seeds of gossip to be planted and start to grow. 

Lastly, if the kingdom would be likely to simply believe Ned as to who Jon was based on his honorable reputation, they would - by the same token - have been very unlikely to believe that Rhaegar had spent most of the last year of his life with a pregnant paramour. They may have hated Aerys, but Rhaegar was popular with the people. And I doubt that Robert went about proclaiming to all and sundry that Lyanna had been kept as a bed slave for the best part of a year. He would not have wanted to besmirch her memory that way,  except in his own private talks with Ned. 

[Maxxine]

I feel like the people who worry about this are just overthinking and making it more complicated than it needs to be. The people in Westeros didn't question it because there was no reason to question it. It's not like it was uncommon for a man in his world to sleep around & have bastards especially when they're away from wife for two years even one as honorable as Ned. He brought back a baby that looked just like him. There was nothing to question. He had time and opportunity to make a baby with anyone during those 2 years and the time and opportunity to pick up the baby on his way back from TOJ to WF. It's really not that deep.