Balon is the worst Military Leader in recent history

[watcher of the night]

1 hour ago, thelittledragonthatcould said:

Where were these North men?

Why did Robb not try and get these Northmen to win back Moat Cailin?

Is it? Source?

So how come they didnt?

 

They did. Your denial of basic facts is beyond ridiculous. They were there fighting with Rodrick, they defeated Dagmar, they laid siege to Winterfell. Umbers were gathering, Manderly was transporting forces up the white knife. Robb had no way to contact them, it does not mean they were non-exitent. Both Asha and Theon knew that holding Winterfell is hopeless.

Clash of Kings, Theon:

"The victory has given Leobald Tallhart the courage to come out from behind his walls  and join Ser Rodrik. And I ’ve had reports that Lord Manderly has sent a dozen barges upriver packed with knights, warhorses, and siege engines. The Umbers are gathering beyond the Last River as well. I ’ll have an army at my gates before the moon turns, and you bring me only ten men?"

Asha:

"My wooden pisspot sits close enough to the sea for supplies and fresh men to reach me whenever they are needful. But
Winterfell is hundreds of leagues inland, ringed by woods, hills, and hostile holdfasts and castles. And every man in a thousand leagues is your enemy now, make no mistake."

[thelittledragonthatcould]

12 minutes ago, watcher of the night said:

They did. Your denial of basic facts is beyond ridiculous.

Did you actually ignore what I said? "Why did Robb not try and get these Northmen to win back Moat Cailin?

Not once does Robb try to get this army to do what you are suggesting. While Balon has enough men to retake Winterfell, he does not believe he has enough to retake Moat Cailin

 

"Robb will never look on Winterfell again," Theon promised. "He will break himself on Moat Cailin, as every southron army has done for ten thousand years. We hold the north now, ser."

"You hold three castles," replied Ser Rodrik, "and this one I mean to take back, Turncloak."

"Do not imagine that I need wait for Robb to fight his way up the Neck to deal with the likes of you. I have near two thousand men with me . . . and if the tales be true, you have no more than fifty."

Which only backs up his earlier claim about not being able to keep the peace in the North

"but meantime we have Manderly knights and Dreadfort men killing one another in Hornwood forests, and I lack the strength to stop them."

[Sullen]

1 hour ago, Paxter Redwyne said:

I am pretty sure that somewhere in this chapter asha stated that balon was angry. Or maybe i heard it in the tv show. But nonethless, balon didn't cared much about theon.

Aeron denotes sadness in Balon when he states that Theon is lost. While he's certainly overly harsh and cruel to his son, he did care about him.

1 hour ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Here is the most damning bit of all.

Even despite the absurd plot twist that allowed Winterfell to be taken by 20 sea raiders 500 miles from the sea, Balon's plan STILL would have failed, despite him holding Moat Cailin. Why? Because Robb was on his way back, through the Neck, to rally the North and eject the Ironborn. That was what he was about to embark on immediately after the Red Wedding.

So Balon STILL would have faced Robb, and would still have been attacked  at Moat Cailin FROM THE NORTH.

That implies Robb defeats Victarion at Moat Cailin, which depended entirely on Frey support, and which Robb felt was so perilous he needed to write his will beforehand, even with the support of the Frey.

You're also ignoring the fact that had the Red Wedding not been planned, Tywin would have been more receptive to his offer, as Tyrell and Redwyne were.

1 hour ago, The Drunkard said:

Balon never would have conquered the North. He simply didn't have the men or the wealth to force the entire kingdom into submission. The way I see it, and the only answer that doesn't make him a moron in my eyes, is that he intended to pen Robb and the main northern force down in the south while giving his own men free reign to loot, burn and otherwise terrorize the North, thereby forcing a desperate Robb to the table and having him surrender certain lands/acknowledge Balon's conquests.

I believe this as well, his speech to Asha about the importance of bending the knee when the time is right would also point to that. I believe he always planned to eventually fold, but keep his gains, which would make his campaign amount to a considerable net positive. Only, I don't think it's Robb he planned to negotiate with, I think he intended to talk with Tywin instead.

29 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Note that Balon never actually defeated Ser Rodrik. In fact, Rodrik kicked Ironborn ass rather comprehensively with his 2000 men at Torhenn Square.

The Ironborn at Torhen Square were never meant to be meaningful resistance, they are a lure and nothing more. Theon assigned Dagmer specifically because he knew the Northmen would overreact due to his reputation alone.

29 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

So the idea that Balon was this monstrously difficult foe to the Northman is not actually borne out by any major battles that he won against them. In fact, the evidence suggests that once the Northmen were able to gather any decent army together they made short work of the vaunted "Ironmen".

The Northmen never won any major battle against Balon's Ironborn either.

[watcher of the night]

6 minutes ago, thelittledragonthatcould said:

Did you actually ignore what I said? "Why did Robb not try and get these Northmen to win back Moat Cailin?

Not once does Robb try to get this army to do what you are suggesting. While Balon has enough men to retake Winterfell, he does not believe he has enough to retake Moat Cailin

 

Did you actually ignore what I wrote? I never said they are there to help Robb, I said they were there to fight the ironborn which they did.

Robb had no way to contact them, it does not mean they were non-exitent. Both Asha and Theon knew that holding Winterfell is hopeless.

Clash of Kings, Theon:

"The victory has given Leobald Tallhart the courage to come out from behind his walls  and join Ser Rodrik. And I ’ve had reports that Lord Manderly has sent a dozen barges upriver packed with knights, warhorses, and siege engines. The Umbers are gathering beyond the Last River as well. I ’ll have an army at my gates before the moon turns, and you bring me only ten men?"

Asha:

"My wooden pisspot sits close enough to the sea for supplies and fresh men to reach me whenever they are needful. But
Winterfell is hundreds of leagues inland, ringed by woods, hills, and hostile holdfasts and castles. And every man in a thousand leagues is your enemy now, make no mistake."

[Sullen]

29 minutes ago, watcher of the night said:

They did. Your denial of basic facts is beyond ridiculous. They were there fighting with Rodrick, they defeated Dagmar, they laid siege to Winterfell. Umbers were gathering, Manderly was transporting forces up the white knife. Robb had no way to contact them, it does not mean they were non-exitent. Both Asha and Theon knew that holding Winterfell is hopeless.

Clash of Kings, Theon:

"The victory has given Leobald Tallhart the courage to come out from behind his walls  and join Ser Rodrik. And I ’ve had reports that Lord Manderly has sent a dozen barges upriver packed with knights, warhorses, and siege engines. The Umbers are gathering beyond the Last River as well. I ’ll have an army at my gates before the moon turns, and you bring me only ten men?"

Asha:

"My wooden pisspot sits close enough to the sea for supplies and fresh men to reach me whenever they are needful. But
Winterfell is hundreds of leagues inland, ringed by woods, hills, and hostile holdfasts and castles. And every man in a thousand leagues is your enemy now, make no mistake."

Holding Winterfell was not hopeless had Victarion moved from Moat Cailin, but that's the point, Winterfell was never meant to be taken so early, or even at all, if you consider the possibility that Balon intended to fold from the very beginning.

[Paxter Redwyne]

7 minutes ago, thelittledragonthatcould said:

Did you actually ignore what I said? "Why did Robb not try and get these Northmen to win back Moat Cailin?

Not once does Robb try to get this army to do what you are suggesting. While Balon has enough men to retake Winterfell, he does not believe he has enough to retake Moat Cailin

 

"Robb will never look on Winterfell again," Theon promised. "He will break himself on Moat Cailin, as every southron army has done for ten thousand years. We hold the north now, ser."

"You hold three castles," replied Ser Rodrik, "and this one I mean to take back, Turncloak."

"Do not imagine that I need wait for Robb to fight his way up the Neck to deal with the likes of you. I have near two thousand men with me . . . and if the tales be true, you have no more than fifty."

Which only backs up his earlier claim about not being able to keep the peace in the North

"but meantime we have Manderly knights and Dreadfort men killing one another in Hornwood forests, and I lack the strength to stop them."

Robb talked about fact that wyman and ramsay were fighting. This wasn't his fault. He was south of neck so could not control correctly actions of his bannermen in the north. As someone pointed before, north only lacked a leader who would group all men together. 

And Robb was so desperate about moat cailin because he already lost castle, karstark support, freys, at duskendale, and his brothers.

He wanted to be sure that he would win ensuring battle. If he ordered someone up north to try repel ironborn,  other lords could not obey him as they wouldn't want to serve someone who has same rank as them( these westerosi lords are annoyingly proud) and he couldn't be sure that he would have enough men.

North is really big and it is really hard to gather men together. Robb was lucky to raise these 20 000 men so quickly. There were probably more left, but true is that robb took most trained men and commanders so only unexperienced men stayed north. Ironborn were able to defeat them few times because they were too unorganised what is why robb wanted come back north to take command.

[thelittledragonthatcould]

21 minutes ago, Paxter Redwyne said:

Robb talked about fact that wyman and ramsay were fighting. This wasn't his fault. He was south of neck so could not control correctly actions of his bannermen in the north. As someone pointed before, north only lacked a leader who would group all men together. 

This thread is about military command. Robb is the Northern General, it is his responsibility to leave his homeland with men capable of defending it.

Whether it is a leadership or numbers issue the buck stops with the General. Stafford and Jaime both made dumb mistakes and those defeats they incurred count against Tywin whether he was present or not.

21 minutes ago, Paxter Redwyne said:

And Robb was so desperate about moat cailin because he already lost castle, karstark support, freys, at duskendale, and his brothers.

No, most of that is false.

• He only finds out about Duskendale on the way to the Twins.
• He was counting on the Freys ot help him win back Moat Cailin
• He only lost 300 Karstarks, he thought he still had the 2,000 foot.

21 minutes ago, Paxter Redwyne said:

He wanted to be sure that he would win ensuring battle. If he ordered someone up north to try repel ironborn,  other lords could not obey him as they wouldn't want to serve someone who has same rank as them( these westerosi lords are annoyingly proud) and he couldn't be sure that he would have enough men.

That makes no sense. Sorry. Either he had the men or he didnt.

Not only did Robb not ask them to take care of Moat Cailin but the Watch was desperate for support and was begging the Northern Lords for help before the Ironborn attack and the Northern Lords sent nothing.

37 minutes ago, watcher of the night said:

 

Robb had no way to contact them, it does not mean they were non-exitent.

How did Robb have no way of contacting them? He is sending Ravens to the North from the Westerlands.

37 minutes ago, watcher of the night said:

Clash of Kings, Theon:

"The victory has given Leobald Tallhart the courage to come out from behind his walls  and join Ser Rodrik. And I ’ve had reports that Lord Manderly has sent a dozen barges upriver packed with knights, warhorses, and siege engines. The Umbers are gathering beyond the Last River as well. I ’ll have an army at my gates before the moon turns, and you bring me only ten men?"

Asha:

"My wooden pisspot sits close enough to the sea for supplies and fresh men to reach me whenever they are needful. But
Winterfell is hundreds of leagues inland, ringed by woods, hills, and hostile holdfasts and castles. And every man in a thousand leagues is your enemy now, make no mistake."

What does that have to do with Moat Cailin?

And as long as we are citing Asha as a source;

If my father still lived, Moat Cailin would never have fallen. Balon Greyjoy had known that the Moat was the key to holding the north. Euron knew that as well; he simply did not care.

[Paxter Redwyne]

2 minutes ago, thelittledragonthatcould said:

He only lost 300 Karstarks, he thought he still had the 2,000 foot.

He lost support of house Karstark, i am not talking about karstark soldiers. Also killing his own bannermen made him far less popular in his kingdom.

 

4 minutes ago, thelittledragonthatcould said:

That makes no sense. Sorry. Either he had the men or he didnt.

It has perfect sense for me. Robb had men, but had no commanders up neck. As napoleon said, it;s better to have army of sheeps commanded by lion than army of lions commanded by sheep.

 

6 minutes ago, thelittledragonthatcould said:

How did Robb have no way of contacting them? He is sending Ravens to the North from the Westerlands.

He could give orders via letter but he could not ensure that people will follow his order. 

 

7 minutes ago, thelittledragonthatcould said:

Whether it is a leadership or numbers issue the buck stops with the General. Stafford and Jaime both made dumb mistakes and those defeats they incurred count against Tywin whether he was present or not.

Then why tywin is not considered as bad military ruler if he too had incompetent commanders? Every side had them. Stannis had imry, robb had rodrik cassel, and tywin stafford. Sometimes it's hard to predict how someone would react.

 

9 minutes ago, thelittledragonthatcould said:

What does that have to do with Moat Cailin?

And as long as we are citing Asha as a source;

If my father still lived, Moat Cailin would never have fallen. Balon Greyjoy had known that the Moat was the key to holding the north. Euron knew that as well; he simply did not care.

Stop using this quote. It proves nothing. Rodrik had 2000 men in winterfell and could gather more. Moat cailin is strategic point, but it isn't entire north. With coordinated attack from both sides, as robb planned and with bog devils harrasing ironborn, i think it's not very hard to take moat cailin. It is defenceless from north.

[ForTheNorth]

10 hours ago, LordPathera said:

It's been said before, but I'll say it again.

ASOIAF is filled with several leaders with some being better or luckier than others. But out of all of those leaders that we've seen or heard about, Balon still sticks out in my mind as the absolute worst. Yes, he's even worst than Cersei since at least she does something well once in a while.

I may admittingly be a Stark fan, but I'm not a mindless Stark defender. The Starks and those working under or with them made their mistakes and suffered for them. I mention this now in case someone wants to dismiss my case as the "biased words of a Stark lover". That's irrelevant to Balon's stupidity, so don't debunk the topic by bringing up that nonsense. Being a fan of House Stark does not change the fact that Balon is thus far the worst military leader in ASOIAF.

So let's start with a bit of history on the man.

1) History

He's the eldest son of Quellon Greyjoy and a proud follower of the Ironborn "old ways". A strong Ironborn should take and seize his treasures through force and strength. Even as a young man, Balon was already known as a fierce and fearless reaver. This stands in contrast to his father who was known as a strong and wise ruler in his own right. But Quellon wanted to reform his people and integrate them with the rest of the Seven Kingdoms. Likely a gradual process since Quellon's men were noted to have sacked Faircastle during the reign of soft and weak Tytos Lannister.

It's not known if Balon and Quellon clashed over their opposing beliefs, but it is known that Balon wanted to join Robert's rebellion when Robert, Ned and Jon all raised their banners. Balon and his brothers apparently wanted to join the Rebellion because of the ample opportunity for loot and plunder that would be yielded from attacking the Royalist Regions while their armies were fighting Robert. But Quellon choose neutrality much like Tywin Lannister did and did not commit to the Rebel cause until after the Battle of the Trident.

Unlike Tywin, Quellon's contribution was pathetically minimal and self-harming.

After some success with navel battles and raiding, the Ironborn won a pyrrhic victory against the Reach in the Battle of the Mander. But Quellon was killed during the fighting and Balon forced to retreat home to claim and win the Seastone Chair. He rejected all of his father's reforms and began building a powerful fleet that would be called the Iron Fleet. It's not known what Balon's relationship was like with Robert, but it seems evident that his desire for independence was largely a religious and cultural one.

2) Greyjoy Rebellion

Much that has been said about this rebellion has already been said and I won't drone over all of the details.

Long story short: Balon had some initial success at Lannisport (keep this one in mind) and launching smaller raids along the Sunset coasts. But was thrown back at Seagard and lost his eldest son there, Stannis and Lord Redwyne defeated the Ironborn Navy at Fair Isle, and then Robert did what he does best. Crush things with his hammer.

Now I have to wonder when exactly Balon realized that he'd made a mistake? Was it when his first son died at Jason Mallister's hands at Seagard? Or when Stannis smashed his fleet at Fair Isle and had his brother Aeron captured? Or how about when his second son died during Robert's counterattack? Or when he was brought before Robert Baratheon in chains?

Balon's reasons for attacking are explained in story and expanded on by Martin himself. Balon apparently believed that he would lack the necessary support to fight his attempt for Independence and he could beat Robert at sea. A fine thought in theory except for a few facts:

Robert's Hand of the King and Foster Father was Lord of the Vale; Robert's best friend and foster brother was Lord of the North; Said-best friend's father-in-law was Lord of the Riverlands; Robert's youngest brother was Lord of the Stormlands and Robert's father-in-law was Lord of the West. And if you count the Crownlands as well then I can't see Balon as anything more than an idiot. He should've also known that all of these realms had previously fought to put Robert on the world's most deadly chair in the first place. Even if the Reach and Dorne were iffy concerning their loyalties and a few houses in the other regions fought for the Targaryens, there's still a huge hole in Balon's logic.

What's the answer to this question? What made Balon believe that Robert wouldn't have enough support to challenge him?

Balon is an idiot. A prideful, stubborn idiot who got his 2 older sons and thousands of his people killed for nothing. It can't even be argued that Balon had bad luck, there's nothing about this scenario of 1 vs 6 that would've ended well for Balon. 

3) Invading the North

A lot has been said about Balon's choice to invade the North.

But overall, he made a stupid decision for the sake of petty revenge against the wrong target.

Let's take a look at the climate of the War of the Five Kings (I know its only four at this point, but shush):

Renly sitting on a huge army stack of 80 to 100 thousand men from the Stormlands and the Reach.

Stannis broods at Dragonstone with barely 5,000 recruits and mercenaries.

Tywin is trapped at Harrenhal with 20,000 soldiers after losing 15,000 at Riverrun.

King's Landing is on the verge of starvation and mutiny with a barely competent garrison and one brilliant Acting Hand constantly contending with two vicious idiots named Cersei and Joffrey to try and prepare for an attack.

The North has declared independence and has 6,000 men raiding the Westerlands; 10-12 thousand men standing by North of the Trident; and the Riverlanders regathering steam and strength after the Riverrun relief. But the Riverlands remain in a state of devastating conflict thanks to Tywin's men.

Dorne and the Vale have remained neutral though the former has many reasons to hate the Westerlands and the latter is technically bound to the North and the Riverlands by a marriage pact.

It is in this atmosphere of war and chaos that Balon chooses to again claim independence and declare himself King. He then decides to assert this claim by assailing the North while much of its strength is focused in the South.

While his plan has some success with taking Moat Cailin, Deepwood Motte, the Stone Shore and Winterfell itself...the North remains a poor target and many factors ensured that Balon would never hold the North.

1) Even though Robb went south with 18,000 men, Martin himself confirmed that Robb's numbers were assembled and haste and that the rest were still gathering due to the North's vast size (supposedly as large as other kingdoms combined). According to semi-canon sources, the North's full strength is about 45 thousand, so subtract 18 from 45 and you get 27 thousand. That's more than enough to repulse the Ironborn whom are stronger closer to the sea than on the green lands and can only marshal 20,000. So holding Moat Cailin forever is no longer feasible since it's more vulnerable from the North and thus the Northerners could retake it and break Balon's stranglehold.

2) The North is too large for the Ironborn to properly control and occupy. It's a harsh and cold environment which most Ironborn would be unused to. Especially with Winter being just around the corner. I need only point out the disastrous invasions of Russia by Napoleon and Hitler as a point of reference. And thanks to Ironborn pillaging and raiding, the Ironborn would also be in danger of starving if not outright freezing to death and that's assuming that they survive the eventual counterattack from a very sizable Northern defense force.

3) The North is one of the poorest regions in the 7 Kingdoms. Anything worth taking is closer to the Kingsroad or in the East such as the silversmiths of White Harbor, but that would take the Ironborn too far away from their element.

These three principle reasons paint Balon as even more of an idiot. He chooses to assert his claim as king by invading a land that's too poor to be worth the effort; too large to ever control; and strong enough to fight off any occupational efforts once its remaining strength regathers. But this would be excusable if there were no other viable targets...

Oh wait, the Westerlands were ripe for the taking.

True, Martin confirms that the Westerlands had rebuilt their fleet, but what does that matter? Balon destroyed the Westerland fleet once and he could do it again and this time, Robert won't be able to save them because he's dead. The Westerlands can gather a total of 50,000, but that strength is spent with 11,000 lost; 20,000 trapped in the Riverlands and an unknown number at Oxcross (5,000 at least, I believe). So that leaves only 14,000 in the West to fight off the Ironborn. A decent risk. But the prize is obvious.

The Westerlands are a fertile land, but more importantly is that they are the richest land. The land is littered with mines filled with silver and gold. Most of its geographical defenses lie in the East with the West being flat and vulnerable to a navel attack. Perhaps Casterly Rock is too strong to take, but the true can't be for certain said of the rest of the Region. The mighty Tywin is also in the Riverlands caught on a war with three fronts against the Riverlands/North; Renly and Stannis with King's Landing hanging in the balance.

Best yet, he'd be attacking the Westerlands in an alliance with the North so he'd be on the winning side of a strong team up (3 realms vs 1).

Instead, Balon attacks the North for petty misguided revenge, pride and stupidity. He attacks a potential ally against a long list of eventual enemies for the sake of proving that "The Old Ways are awesome!" Though I'd point out that his sons were killed by Jason Mallister and Robert Baratheon...during the poorly time Rebellion that he instigated. If anything, it's his own fault that his sons were killed and Theon was made a ward/hostage of the North. But since Balon is a stubborn idiot, he throws all of the blame on the North instead of Robert's "son" Joffrey or Robert's father-in-law Tywin. This is made even hypocritical when Balon himself offers to form an alliance with the Iron Throne despite declaring himself an independent king.

I don't get it...one king offers him an alliance and he attacks him, but later tries to make an alliance with the Lannisters despite knowing how brutal and unforgiving they are to rebels? Which is exactly what Balon is at this point? A Rebel against the Iron Throne? Again?

So what else could Balon had done differently to not make him an idiot?

How about not antagonizing anyone for the moment until he sees whose going to win and who won't. Kind of like his "soft" father did years earlier. Instead, he isolates himself from any potential alliances and instead of going for the richer and technically more vulnerable target he assails a target that he'll never keep and will yield him little. Worst yet, he ends up losing his last remaining son because unlike dear old dad, Theon is actually smart and came up with the alliance idea.

So let's summarize:

Balon Greyjoy's greatest source of stupidity is his idealization of the Old Way of life for the Ironborn. His stubborn and prideful attempt at trying to raise himself up as the greatest champion of the Old Ways and to assert its dominance with poorly timed and thought-out campaigns that had initial success, but were doomed to fail.

The best that can be said about Balon is that he died (or Euron killed him) before he could make things worst for his people and give the Old Ways an even worst name. It's possible that Euron's plan to invade the Reach will turn-out to be an even dumber move than either of his Brother's campaigns. Maybe someone else will usurp Balon as the dumbest military commander in recent history. But for now, I say that Balon can keep his crown as the King of Failure.

Those who think what Balon did was smart have no knowledge of military history or strategy

Conquerors and invaders at least ones that live and are remembered attack targets that are financially profitable. The Vikings would raid places of wealth where their efforts would be rewarded. They'd attack major cities ransom the captives and or extort the ruling government on promise to not attack. They didn't capture fishing villages they didn't raid barren wasteland. The Vikings left north America because there was no wealth and the natives were hostile. Sounds like the North in our story

 

I know Martin is versed in military history so I'm guessing what he was trying to out across was Bacon was going this out of spite for Ned and you can see how Asha views the campaign later on as pretty much stupid

 

Hell what's the first thing Euron does after killing Balon and winning the kingsmoot? He pulls all the ironborn out of the North and attacks the Reach. 

It's simple logic really. Winter is coming and the stone shore ain't Old Town and the North as proven already will fight just as hard for some rocks as the Reachmen will. 

[thelittledragonthatcould]

8 minutes ago, Paxter Redwyne said:

He lost support of house Karstark, i am not talking about karstark soldiers. Also killing his own bannermen made him far less popular in his kingdom.

When did he learn that? Do you have quotes to back this up?

8 minutes ago, Paxter Redwyne said:

 

It has perfect sense for me. Robb had men, but had no commanders up neck. As napoleon said, it;s better to have army of sheeps commanded by lion than army of lions commanded by sheep.

Which means he, the military commander of the North, dropped the ball by not delegating properly.

 

8 minutes ago, Paxter Redwyne said:

 

He could give orders via letter but he could not ensure that people will follow his order. 

This failing also falls under military command.

8 minutes ago, Paxter Redwyne said:

 

Then why tywin is not considered as bad military ruler if he too had incompetent commanders?

In short, because he won. He consistently was on the winning side.  He also delegated to Tyrion who in turn delegated to Littlefinger which resulted in the war being won.

 

8 minutes ago, Paxter Redwyne said:

 

Every side had them. Stannis had imry, robb had rodrik cassel, and tywin stafford. Sometimes it's hard to predict how someone would react.

And it is blamed on the Commander.

It is the commanders job to both delegate and communicate what he wants his subordinates to do. It also helps to pick people you trust rather than rely solely on yourself.

8 minutes ago, Paxter Redwyne said:

 

Stop using this quote. It proves nothing.

Sure it does. Either quotes from Asha are relevant or they are not. If you don't think they are then you should be saying the same to everyone in this thread who cites her as an example about Winterfell.

8 minutes ago, Paxter Redwyne said:

 

Rodrik had 2000 men in winterfell and could gather more.

No he didn't. He raised 2,000 men from the Winterfell lands, House Cerwyn, House Tallhart, House Kastark, House Flint, House Hornwood and House Manderly.

You keep on getting basic things wrong that are easily proven false.

8 minutes ago, Paxter Redwyne said:

 

Moat cailin is strategic point, but it isn't entire north.

When did I say it was?

8 minutes ago, Paxter Redwyne said:

 

With coordinated attack from both sides, as robb planned and with bog devils harrasing ironborn, i think it's not very hard to take moat cailin. It is defenceless from north.

Not very hard? It has never been taken before. Of course it is hard. That goes without saying.

While it is possible that Robb's plan would work, it was a clear Hail Mary as he had no other options but to try.

[Free Northman Reborn]

Littledragon is setting up a strawman, which is that if Balon is an atrocious leader, then Robb must be awesome. That is certainly not my position.

Robb was young, inexperienced, talented in battle strategy, but rather poor at political leadership. I would also argue that he was a poor judge of character, and blinded by some of the teachings of his father. While good qualities for a man, they at times reduced his effectiveness as a leader.

But to argue that it must be one or the other - either Balon was bad or Robb was, is misdirection. Balon was clearly mad to try and attack the North. But Robb was also quite flawed as a leader.

This is all beside the point. Unless the Starks were wiped out completely, I don't see how Balon could ever have hoped to hold on to any part of the North. In the long run, the Ironborn had always been driven out, even if they held on for a few centuries. History was bound to repeat itself eventually.

[ForTheNorth]

3 hours ago, Paxter Redwyne said:

And yet Balon was angry when it happened because Theon taking winterfell wasn't planned by him.He wanted to siege winterfell what is clearly harder than plot twist.

That's what also perplexes me on Balon battle strategy. His son took one of the greatest castles in the seven kingdoms and is holding it in your name and instead of sending reinforcements he and Asha spurn him and treat him like an idiot. Yet Asha couldn't even hold Deepwood Motte. 

 

I feel bad for Theon. A war veteran with actual experience fighting alongside some of Westeros best commanders and soldiers having to put up with the stupidity of Asha and Balon. No doubt in my mind Euron would've used Theons talents. 

[Paxter Redwyne]

I'm tired of this converstion. You seem to be understanding only quotes. And if you need one to prove that killing own bannermen don't bring popularity, i have no words.

 

And there were more men incoming than these 2000 men. Wyman Manderly in dance of dragons said that he still had quite few men. Same with other houses like umbers and (not counting their betrayal) boltons. Rodrik knew about 50 men. He hadn't to bring more to defeat theon.

[Sullen]

16 minutes ago, ForTheNorth said:

Those who think what Balon did was smart have no knowledge of military history or strategy

Conquerors and invaders at least ones that live and are remembered attack targets that are financially profitable. The Vikings would raid places of wealth where their efforts would be rewarded. They'd attack major cities ransom the captives and or extort the ruling government on promise to not attack. They didn't capture fishing villages they didn't raid barren wasteland. The Vikings left north America because there was no wealth and the natives were hostile. Sounds like the North in our story

Not feasible while the Iron Throne exists, the institution is too powerful for Balon to do anything against it without them retaliating tenfolds, in case you forgot what happened during his first Rebellion.

Instead, he's focusing on acquiring easy territory with little to no risk, consolidating his power. Think of the Mongols conquering the Steppes before moving on to China and further West, if you will. Focusing on what the Vikings did historically completely misses the mark, as no territory is as vulnerable as the decentralized France's northern coasts, or the petty kingdoms in Great Britain that the vikings raided/conquered, and even those had them struggling.

23 minutes ago, ForTheNorth said:

I know Martin is versed in military history so I'm guessing what he was trying to out across was Bacon was going this out of spite for Ned and you can see how Asha views the campaign later on as pretty much stupid

Except Asha says they should keep the Coast, which was arguably what Balon intended to do since the very beginning considering his talk to her about bending the knee.

25 minutes ago, ForTheNorth said:

Hell what's the first thing Euron does after killing Balon and winning the kingsmoot? He pulls all the ironborn out of the North and attacks the Reach. 

Euron has the power of magic/plot working in his favour, attacking Oldtown in any other situation is suicide, hence why everyone thinks he's batshit insane. If you think attacking Oldtown is smart without magic on your side, then I suggest you review the situation. As soon as he captures Oldtown, he's got the armies/fleets of the Iron Throne on his ass, and I hardly see him surviving an assault where he is outnumbered 10 to 1. Without magic, it's Balon's first Rebellion all over again. (Except this time around, there's not even the possibility of the Reach being on his side)

28 minutes ago, ForTheNorth said:

It's simple logic really. Winter is coming and the stone shore ain't Old Town and the North as proven already will fight just as hard for some rocks as the Reachmen will. 

The Northmen are less numerous, more vulnerable, do not have a fleet (so no possibility of retaliation), and do not have the protection of the Iron Throne.

[thelittledragonthatcould]

6 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Littledragon is setting up a strawman, which is that if Balon is an atrocious leader, then Robb must be awesome. That is certainly not my position.

 lol quote where I have said that? This whole post of yours is the very defintion of a straw man argument.

Robb and Balon are both capable of being shit or great.They are not dependent on the other.

I have been pretty clear in this thread; Balon was successful in the War of the Five kings as his plan worked, his objectives met and he suffered very little casualties in obtaining his goals.

Maybe try and discuss what I have said rather than reverting to fantasy to score points.

6 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Robb was young, inexperienced, talented in battle strategy, but rather poor at political leadership. I would also argue that he was a poor judge of character, and blinded by some of the teachings of his father. While good qualities for a man, they at times reduced his effectiveness as a leader.

But to argue that it must be one or the other - either Balon was bad or Robb was, is misdirection. Balon was clearly mad to try and attack the North. But Robb was also quite flawed as a leader.

This is all beside the point. Unless the Starks were wiped out completely, I don't see how Balon could ever have hoped to hold on to any part of the North. In the long run, the Ironborn had always been driven out, even if they held on for a few centuries. History was bound to repeat itself eventually.

Pathetic. Why not reply to what I actually said rather than invent an argument that you thought I may have made. 

 

[Sullen]

9 minutes ago, ForTheNorth said:

That's what also perplexes me on Balon battle strategy. His son took one of the greatest castles in the seven kingdoms and is holding it in your name and instead of sending reinforcements he and Asha spurn him and treat him like an idiot. Yet Asha couldn't even hold Deepwood Motte. 

Because Winterfell is not essential to their strategy at this point, they need to focus on the coasts for supplies/reinforcements/movement and on Moat Cailin to keep Robb South.

Lose the coasts, and you leave your army stranded in enemy territory with no reliable way to resupply and with no way out should a massive army come your way.

Also, Asha lost Deepwood Motte after the North was abandoned by the Ironborn, she wasn't even there officially in the name of the King when it fell.

[Free Northman Reborn]

8 minutes ago, thelittledragonthatcould said:

 lol quote where I have said that? This whole post of yours is the very defintion of a straw man argument.

Robb and Balon are both capable of being shit or great.They are not dependent on the other.

I have been pretty clear in this thread; Balon was successful in the War of the Five kings as his plan worked, his objectives met and he suffered very little casualties in obtaining his goals.

Maybe try and discuss what I have said rather than reverting to fantasy to score points.

Pathetic. Why not reply to what I actually said rather than invent an argument that you thought I may have made. 

 

Spare me the false indignation.

Whenever someone points out the ludicrous errors made in the North - as evidence of absurd plot contrivances to bring down the Starks - you use that as evidence of Robb's supposed weakness as a commander, for not "delegating effectively" or not "providing adequately for the defense of the North, in his absence". All of which has nothing to do with Balon's skills or lack thereof, but instead are intended to juxtapose Robb's flaws against those of Balon for some weird reason that you feel necessary.

Which is irrelevant to this thread.

[Free Northman Reborn]

In terms of the final outcome of Balon vs Robb's campaigns, they both ended rather similarly - with radical plot developments that killed them quite outside of the war they were fighting with one another. Balon was killed by Euron in as unexpected a twist as Robb's death at the Red Wedding.

So if you were to ignore both those events, and imagine both "Kings" still alive, then you would likely be looking at 10k Ironborn still spread across the Stony Shore, and another 10k sitting with Victarrion at Moat Cailin. At the same time, you would have Robb back in the North, having crossed the swamps of the Neck with maybe 5000 of his veteran soldiers, linking up with the Manderlys and other loyal lords in the North, likely gathering his strength at White Harbor plotting the retaking of the North.

At this point the two sides would be fairly evenly matched, but as time went by the Northmen would only grow stronger, with local support and intimate knowledge of the terrain and environment, while the Ironborn were gradually being picked off by foresters and Mountain Clansmen around Deepwood Motte, by Crannogmen around Moat Cailin, and by Robb's fast moving cavalry skirmishers throughout the Barrowlands and Rills.

By the time a major battleground is picked, the Ironborn would have been worn down, or else would have retreated back to their coastal strongholds, to be close to their naval supply lines. And this would pretty much be the situation when Winter arrived, and we all know there is only one way that things would go at that point.

It would be another Brandon Ice Eyes "entrails on Heart Trees" saga.

[Sullen]

7 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Spare me the false indignation.

Whenever someone points out the ludicrous errors made in the North - as evidence of absurd plot contrivances to bring down the Starks - you use that as evidence of Robb's supposed weakness as a commander, for not "delegating effectively" or not "providing adequately for the defense of the North, in his absence". All of which has nothing to do with Balon's skills or lack thereof, but instead are intended to juxtapose Robb's flaws against those of Balon for some weird reason that you feel necessary.

Which is irrelevant to this thread.

It's relevant though.

Balon's whole strategy is to profit of the North's vulnerability and Robb's perceived inexperience while not antagonizing the Throne, and it worked perfectly. You cannot talk about Balon's campaign in the North without talking about Robb's in the South, they are intrinsically linked.

Balon bet on the fact that Robb was inexperienced and that the North wasn't ready to suffer an assault from the sea, he was right on both cases. He also bet on the supposition that the Throne would cooperate with him/allow him to come back into the King's peace, but he was wrong on that point considering Tywin found a more effective way to dispatch Robb.

[Free Northman Reborn]

1 minute ago, Sullen said:

It's relevant though.

Balon's whole strategy is to profit of the North's vulnerability and Robb's perceived inexperience while not antagonizing the Throne, and it worked perfectly. You cannot talk about Balon's campaign in the North without talking about Robb's in the South, they are intrinsically linked.

Balon bet on the fact that Robb was inexperienced and that the North wasn't ready to suffer an assault from the sea, he was right on both cases. He also bet on the supposition that the Throne would cooperate with him/allow him to come back into the King's peace, but he was wrong on that point considering Tywin found a more effective way to dispatch Robb.

For that to hold water he would have had to predict Theon's taking of Winterfell, Roose Bolton's resultant betrayal, and Robb's fallout with the Freys, Without those three events, Robb would be back in the North, fighting Balon with a significant Northern army.