Balon is the worst Military Leader in recent history

[Free Northman Reborn]

35 minutes ago, thelittledragonthatcould said:

Probably around 4-5k.

Yes. Around 500-1k outside of Skagos, though Guerilla warfare would make them far deadlier on Skagos.

The minimum she could get away but as many as it would take to please Robb as she was scared of the Starks.

No they don't. This is a common misconception. They now have men to spare as it is Winter and there is no more harvests to bring in. Many of the 3k ish with Stannis are men sacrificing themselves for Winter. We only had to see how poor they fared against the fleeing Ironborn at Deepwood Motte.

This is where the line gets blurred between regular smallfolk and trained and moderately well armed smallfolk enlisted to fight.

And yet the Umbers and Karstarks did just that, as did Robb. I would not be too surprised if other Lords were also shorthanded due to sending too many.

Which is true. Robb took longer than Renly, Tywin and even Edmure to gather his army.

How? Robb took longer to gather his army than Tywin did.

 His Lords, not the least of his bannermen.

All possible.

Must be? I don't know about must be. But it is possible.

 Not that we have seen. A significantly higher army would have dealt with the Boltons pretty easily in the Hornwood battle, especially as it appears Roose sent more with Robb than Wyman did.

I'd say 30k is the minimum given that is what Torrhen Stark raised after plenty of time and the biggest threat in Westeros history.

Not based on what the 5 books published or the world book.

All fair, though there is some blurring of the lines between actual capable soldiers and old men and young boys forced to fight now that it is winter.

And we only know of 400 with one of the Umber uncles, we don't know how many are with the other. But again, they are grey beards and green boys. I don't really count them as real soldiers just like I don't really count the Green boys of Lannisport as real soldiers. This is shown at how easily they are dealt with by real soldiers.

Come on. Less than that.

Likely less.

 Possibly more. Decent location and there have been two Locke's married to Lord Starks in the past 200ish years.

less 4-5k

more. Probably 5k when you include their two Masterly Houses

Sure

Not that we know of. Maybe 4k.

Not Lordly Houses, but Masterly Houses. I include their numbers with the Starks, we are not too far off their combined numbers.

Outside of the Neck? Nope.

Sure.

That is not 40k. It takes an awful lot of rounding up to get it to 40k.

The Widow's Watch Flints are at an excellent location, and are stated to be the greatest of the Flint Houses, although not the oldest.

Similarly, House Hornwood is arguably in a better location than House Bolton, and their lands are clearly highly sought after. There is no reason to judge them as particularly weak.

As for Skagos. It is much bigger than Bear Island, and on the warmer side of Westeros. Compare the treeline above Skagos to the Frozen Shore above Bear Island. Why would Skagos not have at least twice Bear Island's strength?

I think Manderly is our biggest divergence. Come Winds of Winter, as you allude to, this is probably where one of us will be most surprised.

Note that despite his losses, he still has more heavy cavalry than even the Boltons, who are close to full strength. Also note that his wealth, population centre and trade network dwarfs that of any other Northern lord. In fact, the White Knife trade route culminating in the White Harbor trade port has no equivalent in the rest of the North. It is basically the only trade and industry based region in the entire North. Its population density will inevitably dwarf that of any other region.

I think 5000 men is far too low for Manderly's full strength. But as you say, time will tell.

Regarding your Mountain Clan explanation. That is not what Jon attributes the remaining men to. Instead, he states that these are proud men, and they require a King to come and pay homage to them personally before committing men to him. If Robb had the time to visit them personally, he would have drawn more men than just the youngsters eager for plunder or glory.

That is not to say that the Harvest explanation is invalid. It is very valid. Across the entire North. And explains why Robb was only able to raise at best 50% of the North's strength.

The timing of his campaign was about as bad as it can get, for the North. Right when the last Harvest was coming in. You seem to be discounting Martin's direct explanation about why Robb was not able to raise the full strength of the North. The time it takes to gather the men together relates to the geographic size of the North. The Harvest issue was a different matter, and would only be resolved once the Harvest was in. Which was still not the case as of Dance, when Alys was complaining about part of the Harvest going to waste.

Those men are only now being freed up. And will become available during Winds of Winter.

As for the total number. I popped it into excel. It came to 40800, including Skagos. And as I said, I believe these are conservative numbers in many instances, the Manderlys being a prime example.

 

 

[ForTheNorth]

2 hours ago, Sullen said:

And once the Iron Throne is consolidated and peace is brought back, Balon/Euron is first on the hitlist with no means to defend himself. Who says the iron throne is ever going to unite again? And you ruin your own argument, if the North unites how long can the iron islands hold their conquests? You really believe the Iron islands have the strength to fight Northmen in winter. But that's besides the point nothing the iron islands captured in the north are worth keeping and not worth the price. Plundering old town is worth the price. 

Raid, and not conquer. You do not gain more power by only raiding.

Temujin united the steppes before conquering more impressive foes, he's consolidating power, it's the exact same concept.

no it's not. The Mongols had horses and we're nomads which allowed them to conquer far away territories and respond to uprisings quickly. The iron born don't have horses and the north is far too big to control. 

France was decentralized at that time, and unable to retaliate.

was Islamic Spain decentralized? What about the holy roman empire?

The closest thing to something similar in Balon's time is the independent North.

come now you don't seriously believe Balon can overpower an independent north? 

 

2 hours ago, Sullen said:

How would she lose the coast through the Winter?

how could she not? You have to keep open a supply chain from the iron islands to the north, you have to defend infertile ground on hostile territory with nowhere to recruit fresh troops while dealing with freezing temperatures and massive snow fall something your enemies have no problem with but you are unaccustomed. How many troops do you think would be required to hold and defend the coast? 

Either Robb is dead due to the Red Wedding, or Balon allies himself with Tywin. The North is broken, left without leadership and experienced men. Fighting either one (in the case Balon returns in the King's peace) or two (in case he doesn't) Kings.

Tywin was never going to ally himself with Balon nor would Tywin hope to keep the North peaceful by ceding territory to Iron Born. Look at how the Bolton's dealt with iron Born you really think Tywin was going to risk more northern insurrection to appease what in his mind would be one of the lowest lords in the 7?

For now, it won't take 100 years for the Throne to take action. Besides, Redwyne is supposedly on his way now that Dragonstone has fallen.

and I'm sure euron has a plan for redwyne. Because he's a real general unlike Balon the reaver turned king of the pebbles 

 

 

cept that they don't get to keep that loot and are set back another 15 years behind once the Throne retaliates. It's Lannisport all over again.

that was the largest mobilization of the seven kingdoms in its history. You had the entire realm fighting as one with the very best veterans of Roberts rebellion

 

tell me who leads this invasion force? With what troops? Who pays for it? 

They kept Cape Kraken and Bear Island for a good amount of time, and that was without the support of the Iron Throne. (Which Balon was relying on) see you have to go back to legendary times to find an example and the Stark kings took those on their own . Any others?

 

[thelittledragonthatcould]

1 minute ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

The Widow's Watch Flints are at an excellent location, and are stated to be the greatest of the Flint Houses, although not the oldest.

Excellent location? We don't really know enough about the North to be making those kind of claims. Given that all major trade goes through the White Knife I'd doubt it is that key.

 

1 minute ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Similarly, House Hornwood is arguably in a better location than House Bolton, and their lands are clearly highly sought after. There is no reason to judge them as particularly weak.

Sure there is. The way they could not protect themselves and allowed Ramsay to basically make himself their Lord. They obviously did not keep many men to protect their lands.

And given we know that the Hornwoods were one of the many Houses that assembled at Winterfell (Stark, Bolton, Umber, Mormont, Karstark, Cerwyn) to a total sum of 12k it is a pretty reasonable suggestion that they are not a powerhouse.

And then there is the Greatjon's reaction to them: And when Lord Umber, who was called the Greatjon by his men and stood as tall as Hodor and twice as wide, threatened to take his forces home if he was placed behind the Hornwoods or the Cerwyns in the order of march, Robb told him he was welcome to do so.

I'd say they are one of the least powerful, the buffer between two more powerful Lords.

1 minute ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

I think Manderly is our biggest divergence. Come Winds of Winter, as you allude to, this is probably where one of us will be most surprised.

I'd actually be really surprised if they had more than 5k. The Freys have less, the Royces has around 5-6k but seem greater.

There is no shame in 4-5k.

1 minute ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Note that despite his losses, he still has more heavy cavalry than even the Boltons, who are close to full strength.

Is that really surprising? We saw how poor the Heavy Horse with Stannis was and how much glee the Mountain Clans derived from this. Heavy Horse for the more Northern Houses is pretty useless if they can't be trusted to be of significant use in poor weather.

The Manderlys are rich, come from a knightly culture and one of the most southern Houses in the North. Them having more Heavy Horse than their rivals should have surprised no one.

1 minute ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

 

Also note that his wealth, population centre and trade network dwarfs that of any other Northern lord.

If we based armies on the size of cities then Kings Landing would not have been under so much threat.

1 minute ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

 

In fact, the White Knife trade route culminating in the White Harbor trade port has no equivalent in the rest of the North. It is basically the only trade and industry based region in the entire North. It's population density will inevitably dwarf that of any other region.

Not necessarily, though it most likely does.

1 minute ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

I think 5000 men is far too low for Manderly's full strength. But as you say, time will tell.

Too much time. And even then, we both know GRRM may be subtle with his numbers and we will both be convinced we are right with no confirmation either way.

Still it is kind of depressing how invested I am in seeing the truth and you and BBE's reaction. It is going to be pretty humiliating for me if you are right.

1 minute ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Lastly, regarding your Mountain Clan explanation. That is not what Jon attributes the remaining men too. Instead, he states that these are proud men, and they require a King to come and pay homage to them personally before committing men to him.

And Jon also underestimates how many men will be available from them

 

[Free Northman Reborn]

11 minutes ago, thelittledragonthatcould said:

Excellent location? We don't really know enough about the North to be making those kind of claims. Given that all major trade goes through the White Knife I'd doubt it is that key.

 

Sure there is. The way they could not protect themselves and allowed Ramsay to basically make himself their Lord. They obviously did not keep many men to protect their lands.

And given we know that the Hornwoods were one of the many Houses that assembled at Winterfell (Stark, Bolton, Umber, Mormont, Karstark, Cerwyn) to a total sum of 12k it is a pretty reasonable suggestion that they are not a powerhouse.

And then there is the Greatjon's reaction to them: And when Lord Umber, who was called the Greatjon by his men and stood as tall as Hodor and twice as wide, threatened to take his forces home if he was placed behind the Hornwoods or the Cerwyns in the order of march, Robb told him he was welcome to do so.

I'd say they are one of the least powerful, the buffer between two more powerful Lords.

I'd actually be really surprised if they had more than 5k. The Freys have less, the Royces has around 5-6k but seem greater.

There is no shame in 4-5k.

Is that really surprising? We saw how poor the Heavy Horse with Stannis was and how much glee the Mountain Clans derived from this. Heavy Horse for the more Northern Houses is pretty useless if they can't be trusted to be of significant use in poor weather.

The Manderlys are rich, come from a knightly culture and one of the most southern Houses in the North. Them having more Heavy Horse than their rivals should have surprised no one.

If we based armies on the size of cities then Kings Landing would not have been under so much threat.

Not necessarily, though it most likely does.

Too much time. And even then, we both know GRRM may be subtle with his numbers and we will both be convinced we are right with no confirmation either way.

Still it is kind of depressing how invested I am in seeing the truth and you and BBE's reaction. It is going to be pretty humiliating for me if you are right.

And Jon also underestimates how many men will be available from them

 

Does he? He says 2000. Maybe 3000. Stannis has between 1000 and 1500 Southron soldiers with him. He is joined by say 2500 Clansmen, taking his strength to 4000. And then another 1000 men from the Wolfswood, Glover and other survivors would take him to the "5000 and growing" number he alluded to.

And that still leaves 500 men to play with before we get to Jon's upper estimate of 3000 Clansmen.

 

EDIT

I just want to add that I fully support your Harvest argument in general. But that applies to the entire North. And was a key reason behind Robb's low turnout in the first place. And Martin made it clear in a quote all of 10  or 15 years ago now - long before the cancellation of the 5 year gap - that the Harvest is a key issue that affects the North's ability to raise its full strength to a far greater extent than it does any other region.

So the men that are releasted after the Harvest are not some afterthought. They are very much part of the total Northern Strength that Martin has in mind. And have been a key factor behind my confidence that there is a significant untapped portion of the North's manpower that was stashed away for a very plausible reason. They were collecting food for the Winter to come. And could not be released before that job was done, even to go fight "monstrous Ironborn warchiefs" like Dagmer Cleftjaw and others.

[lordstewie]

It is not entirely true.
do not forget that you are already rebelled and was defeated
the iron islands have so many soldiers the many things are impossible

[watcher of the night]

@littledragon

Ok, lets do a quick recap. I claimed that Moat Cailin is not the key to North, simply becuase there are northmen living up north. Sure, capturing it keeps out Robb for a while (well he was killed before he could get back), however one still has to cope with the northmen north of the Moat Cailin. In response this you asked “where are those northmen”, strongly suggesting that they do not exist; and then “how come they didn’t [fight]”, strongly suggesting that they don’t fight for Robb/ for the independent North. To this I gave you quotes to show that they exist and they fight against the ironborn. But let’s do it again step by step:  

Quote

Where were these North men?

With Rodrick laying siege to Winterfell. However, there were other houses gathering a host:

Clash of Kings, Theon:

"The victory has given Leobald Tallhart the courage to come out from behind his walls  and join Ser Rodrik. And I ’ve had reports that Lord Manderly has sent a dozen barges upriver packed with knights, warhorses, and siege engines. The Umbers are gathering beyond the Last River as well. I ’ll have an army at my gates before the moon turns, and you bring me only ten men?"

Quote

Why did Robb not try and get these Northmen to win back Moat Cailin?

Some of them were too far away or busy with other jobs (Rodrick’s host, Umbers, Manderly’s men). Even if they were close he might not trusted such plan to the birds as birds can be shot. However he did enlist some of the loyal northmen close by, namely the crannogmen. There was no reason and no opportunity to wait for the others.

Quote

Is it? Source?

It was held by the Marsh Kings for thousands of years. It is clearly not some requirement to hold the rest of the north.

Quote

So how come they didnt?

They did (fight). They were there fighting with Rodrick, they defeated Dagmar Cleftjaw (crashing his shieldwall, indicating competent fighters not some green boys), they laid siege to Winterfell.

 

[watcher of the night]

1 hour ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Does he? He says 2000. Maybe 3000. Stannis has between 1000 and 1500 Southron soldiers with him. He is joined by say 2500 Clansmen, taking his strength to 4000. And then another 1000 men from the Wolfswood, Glover and other survivors would take him to the "5000 and growing" number he alluded to.

And that still leaves 500 men to play with before we get to Jon's upper estimate of 3000 Clansmen.

 

EDIT

I just want to add that I fully support your Harvest argument in general. But that applies to the entire North. And was a key reason behind Robb's low turnout in the first place. And Martin made it clear in a quote all of 10  or 15 years ago now - long before the cancellation of the 5 year gap - that the Harvest is a key issue that affects the North's ability to raise its full strength to a far greater extent than it does any other region.

So the men that are releasted after the Harvest are not some afterthought. They are very much part of the total Northern Strength that Martin has in mind. And have been a key factor behind my confidence that there is a significant untapped portion of the North's manpower that was stashed away for a very plausible reason. They were collecting food for the Winter to come. And could not be released before that job was done, even to go fight "monstrous Ironborn warchiefs" like Dagmer Cleftjaw and others.

I applaud your effort!

[watcher of the night]

2 hours ago, thelittledragonthatcould said:

That is not 40k. It takes an awful lot of rounding up to get it to 40k.

Let's suppose your estimation is correct and the north has some 38k men.

18k went down south with Robb, 4k returned mostly Boltons (i.e. 14k lost). 

Rodrik lost 2k.

Let's say 1k were defeated around Deepwood Motte.

Stannis has 3k.

Bolton has with him roughly 6k out of this 1.2k Freys so 4.8k northmen.

That is 14+2+1+3+4.8= 23.8, let's say 24 or even 25k. Where are the others? There is still 13-14k left.

[Starfell]

2 hours ago, Abdallah said:

Much of that remaining 25 K are old men and green boys. As for attacking the westerlands, it might of been easier until Robb's other dumb moves cost him the war and the Tyrells and Lannisters counter attack. Do u think Tywin would be anywhere as kind as Robert was? No he'd wipe out the greyjoys. 

He'd wipe out the Greyjoys for rebelling against the Throne twice regardless of whether they attacked him during the Wot5K. He has to prop up his dynasty's Kingdom and allowing a serial rebel to go on like that would make the Throne's position untenable. That's leaving aside his personal history of dealing with rebels, which doesn't bode well for anyone who positions themselves against the side he's on.

Assuming a Lannister/Tyrell victory (or a Stannis victory), there's no way that the Iron Islands would escape harsh retribution once the North was secured (Dany and Aegon would likely follow a similar policy seeing as they both want the Kingdom whole, but Balone doesn't know about them). Which also raises the point that the Iron Throne claims the North as its own, so by attempting to annex the North, he's making war on the Throne just as much as by declaring himself a King while at the same time leaving the Iron Islands dangerously overextended.

Yes, Balon tried to mitigate this by allying with the Lannisters, but even here he showed his political ineptitude. As Tywin points out, he has absolutely no reason to accept Balon's alliance offer because Balon's already committed himself to a course of action that beneifts Tywin without needing to obligate himself to a man he regards as Joffrey's vassal. If he wanted an alliance then he either needed to pose a threat (he doesn't because his military is tied up in a campaign against the North), or have something worth allying for (again, he doesn't offer anything that Tywin wouldn't get anyway if he refused). In fact, allying with the Ironborn would actually damage the Iron Throne because it legitimises a breakaway vassal's rebellion, dangerously eroding the Throne's power and its own legitimacy

The only ways that the Ironborn can escape a war against the Iron Throne are either if Westeros balkanises (which pretty much requires a Northern victory anyway), or if somebody as inept as Cersei end up in power and gives up on the idea of retaking the Islands after driving them from the North. Balon had no reason to expect either of those outcomes, so he should have anticipated war with the throne as at least highly likely and planned accordingly. I'm not necessarily saying to attack the West, but if I were him then I'd want to cripple the naval power of the West coast and that means attacking the Lannister and Redwyne fleets

[John Doe]

On 8.4.2016 at 8:11 AM, LordPathera said:

It's been said before, but I'll say it again.

ASOIAF is filled with several leaders with some being better or luckier than others. But out of all of those leaders that we've seen or heard about, Balon still sticks out in my mind as the absolute worst. Yes, he's even worst than Cersei since at least she does something well once in a while.

I may admittingly be a Stark fan, but I'm not a mindless Stark defender. The Starks and those working under or with them made their mistakes and suffered for them. I mention this now in case someone wants to dismiss my case as the "biased words of a Stark lover". That's irrelevant to Balon's stupidity, so don't debunk the topic by bringing up that nonsense. Being a fan of House Stark does not change the fact that Balon is thus far the worst military leader in ASOIAF.

So let's start with a bit of history on the man.

1) History

He's the eldest son of Quellon Greyjoy and a proud follower of the Ironborn "old ways". A strong Ironborn should take and seize his treasures through force and strength. Even as a young man, Balon was already known as a fierce and fearless reaver. This stands in contrast to his father who was known as a strong and wise ruler in his own right. But Quellon wanted to reform his people and integrate them with the rest of the Seven Kingdoms. Likely a gradual process since Quellon's men were noted to have sacked Faircastle during the reign of soft and weak Tytos Lannister.

It's not known if Balon and Quellon clashed over their opposing beliefs, but it is known that Balon wanted to join Robert's rebellion when Robert, Ned and Jon all raised their banners. Balon and his brothers apparently wanted to join the Rebellion because of the ample opportunity for loot and plunder that would be yielded from attacking the Royalist Regions while their armies were fighting Robert. But Quellon choose neutrality much like Tywin Lannister did and did not commit to the Rebel cause until after the Battle of the Trident.

Unlike Tywin, Quellon's contribution was pathetically minimal and self-harming.

After some success with navel battles and raiding, the Ironborn won a pyrrhic victory against the Reach in the Battle of the Mander. But Quellon was killed during the fighting and Balon forced to retreat home to claim and win the Seastone Chair. He rejected all of his father's reforms and began building a powerful fleet that would be called the Iron Fleet. It's not known what Balon's relationship was like with Robert, but it seems evident that his desire for independence was largely a religious and cultural one.

2) Greyjoy Rebellion

Much that has been said about this rebellion has already been said and I won't drone over all of the details.

Long story short: Balon had some initial success at Lannisport (keep this one in mind) and launching smaller raids along the Sunset coasts. But was thrown back at Seagard and lost his eldest son there, Stannis and Lord Redwyne defeated the Ironborn Navy at Fair Isle, and then Robert did what he does best. Crush things with his hammer.

Now I have to wonder when exactly Balon realized that he'd made a mistake? Was it when his first son died at Jason Mallister's hands at Seagard? Or when Stannis smashed his fleet at Fair Isle and had his brother Aeron captured? Or how about when his second son died during Robert's counterattack? Or when he was brought before Robert Baratheon in chains?

Balon's reasons for attacking are explained in story and expanded on by Martin himself. Balon apparently believed that he would lack the necessary support to fight his attempt for Independence and he could beat Robert at sea. A fine thought in theory except for a few facts:

Robert's Hand of the King and Foster Father was Lord of the Vale; Robert's best friend and foster brother was Lord of the North; Said-best friend's father-in-law was Lord of the Riverlands; Robert's youngest brother was Lord of the Stormlands and Robert's father-in-law was Lord of the West. And if you count the Crownlands as well then I can't see Balon as anything more than an idiot. He should've also known that all of these realms had previously fought to put Robert on the world's most deadly chair in the first place. Even if the Reach and Dorne were iffy concerning their loyalties and a few houses in the other regions fought for the Targaryens, there's still a huge hole in Balon's logic.

What's the answer to this question? What made Balon believe that Robert wouldn't have enough support to challenge him?

Balon is an idiot. A prideful, stubborn idiot who got his 2 older sons and thousands of his people killed for nothing. It can't even be argued that Balon had bad luck, there's nothing about this scenario of 1 vs 6 that would've ended well for Balon. 

3) Invading the North

A lot has been said about Balon's choice to invade the North.

But overall, he made a stupid decision for the sake of petty revenge against the wrong target.

Let's take a look at the climate of the War of the Five Kings (I know its only four at this point, but shush):

Renly sitting on a huge army stack of 80 to 100 thousand men from the Stormlands and the Reach.

Stannis broods at Dragonstone with barely 5,000 recruits and mercenaries.

Tywin is trapped at Harrenhal with 20,000 soldiers after losing 15,000 at Riverrun.

King's Landing is on the verge of starvation and mutiny with a barely competent garrison and one brilliant Acting Hand constantly contending with two vicious idiots named Cersei and Joffrey to try and prepare for an attack.

The North has declared independence and has 6,000 men raiding the Westerlands; 10-12 thousand men standing by North of the Trident; and the Riverlanders regathering steam and strength after the Riverrun relief. But the Riverlands remain in a state of devastating conflict thanks to Tywin's men.

Dorne and the Vale have remained neutral though the former has many reasons to hate the Westerlands and the latter is technically bound to the North and the Riverlands by a marriage pact.

It is in this atmosphere of war and chaos that Balon chooses to again claim independence and declare himself King. He then decides to assert this claim by assailing the North while much of its strength is focused in the South.

While his plan has some success with taking Moat Cailin, Deepwood Motte, the Stone Shore and Winterfell itself...the North remains a poor target and many factors ensured that Balon would never hold the North.

1) Even though Robb went south with 18,000 men, Martin himself confirmed that Robb's numbers were assembled and haste and that the rest were still gathering due to the North's vast size (supposedly as large as other kingdoms combined). According to semi-canon sources, the North's full strength is about 45 thousand, so subtract 18 from 45 and you get 27 thousand. That's more than enough to repulse the Ironborn whom are stronger closer to the sea than on the green lands and can only marshal 20,000. So holding Moat Cailin forever is no longer feasible since it's more vulnerable from the North and thus the Northerners could retake it and break Balon's stranglehold.

2) The North is too large for the Ironborn to properly control and occupy. It's a harsh and cold environment which most Ironborn would be unused to. Especially with Winter being just around the corner. I need only point out the disastrous invasions of Russia by Napoleon and Hitler as a point of reference. And thanks to Ironborn pillaging and raiding, the Ironborn would also be in danger of starving if not outright freezing to death and that's assuming that they survive the eventual counterattack from a very sizable Northern defense force.

3) The North is one of the poorest regions in the 7 Kingdoms. Anything worth taking is closer to the Kingsroad or in the East such as the silversmiths of White Harbor, but that would take the Ironborn too far away from their element.

These three principle reasons paint Balon as even more of an idiot. He chooses to assert his claim as king by invading a land that's too poor to be worth the effort; too large to ever control; and strong enough to fight off any occupational efforts once its remaining strength regathers. But this would be excusable if there were no other viable targets...

Oh wait, the Westerlands were ripe for the taking.

True, Martin confirms that the Westerlands had rebuilt their fleet, but what does that matter? Balon destroyed the Westerland fleet once and he could do it again and this time, Robert won't be able to save them because he's dead. The Westerlands can gather a total of 50,000, but that strength is spent with 11,000 lost; 20,000 trapped in the Riverlands and an unknown number at Oxcross (5,000 at least, I believe). So that leaves only 14,000 in the West to fight off the Ironborn. A decent risk. But the prize is obvious.

The Westerlands are a fertile land, but more importantly is that they are the richest land. The land is littered with mines filled with silver and gold. Most of its geographical defenses lie in the East with the West being flat and vulnerable to a navel attack. Perhaps Casterly Rock is too strong to take, but the true can't be for certain said of the rest of the Region. The mighty Tywin is also in the Riverlands caught on a war with three fronts against the Riverlands/North; Renly and Stannis with King's Landing hanging in the balance.

Best yet, he'd be attacking the Westerlands in an alliance with the North so he'd be on the winning side of a strong team up (3 realms vs 1).

How about not antagonizing anyone for the moment until he sees whose going to win and who won't. Kind of like his "soft" father did years earlier. Instead, he isolates himself from any potential alliances and instead of going for the richer and technically more vulnerable target he assails a target that he'll never keep and will yield him little. Worst yet, he ends up losing his last remaining son because unlike dear old dad, Theon is actually smart and came up with the alliance idea.

 

He was indeed stupid. Tywin might actually have agreed to Balon's offer of independence in exchange for an allicance if he had made it before he attacked the North,basically doing it for free. However his attack on the North was maybe not that stupid as Robb was isolated and it was pretty successfull up until he was assasinated by Euron.  I have to disagree about your semi-canon numbers though, they can't be considered canon at all. They put House Martell at 50k even though that contradicts the books. The largest northern army we know of was some 30 k strong, and that fits the numbers we saw in the books better than 45 k.

On 8.4.2016 at 8:54 AM, thelittledragonthatcould said:

During the War of the Five Kings he seems pretty successful as a Military leaders go. He sets out his objectives and they are completed with minimum casualties to his people.

More importantly he and his people after stronger after his death than it was before he became the Leader.

He is certainly not the worst military leader in the War of the Five Kings, not by a long shot.

 

On 8.4.2016 at 10:00 AM, thelittledragonthatcould said:

Renly did not get to do anything.

Robb started off as the King of the North and lost that with his own men mutinying against him. Robb quite clearly is a worse military leader, fantastic captain/field leader but was absolutely shocking as a General of the Northern forces.

Stannis failed in all his objectives. Started with 5k and ended with half that. Two major victories in the War of the Five Kings, both done with magic. Needed Jon Snow to point out to him the idiocy of trying to attack the Dreadfort.

Tywin got his objectives but lost 15-20k of his army in the process and Stafford and Jaime both made similar, stupid mistakes in regards to not properly screening their defences.

In regards to resources they started off with, the position they were in when their war finished and the amount of losses they incurred getting their objectives then Balon outperformed his rivals.

Yup. That was a political failing not a military one, he thought more realms would follow his lead and rebel from the Throne.

But, yeah the Greyjoy Rebellion was poor. His second Rebellion was not. He died a King with more lands than he began with and his people in a pretty solid situation.

 

Robb is a much better tactician, both are poor strategists. So I'm not sure if it's appropriate to put Balon above Robb. 

Stannis survived and has the best military record out of any of the five kings, so he can't be put below Balon either. 

Tywin came closest to pulling off a win unil he died, so he is above Balon too. 

Now that's true, but that has more to do with poor planning on Robb's part and him being occupied with Tywin than with Balons own abilities. 

Do we know a battle he lead and won himself? Because if not, most of his successes and failures are political and not military ones, and his lack of military experience is only surpassed by Joffrey and Renly in the wotfk. 

I'm not sure if the situation was that solid, we don't know whether the Greyjoys could have kept their conquests.

 

[thelittledragonthatcould]

 

51 minutes ago, John Doe said:

Robb is a much better tactician, both are poor strategists. So I'm not sure if it's appropriate to put Balon above Robb. 

 It is appropriate because Balon succeeded where Robb failed. Balon's heirs inherited a larger kingdom than Balon inherited and Robb's heirs (if there are any) inherited less and will have to regain what Robb lost.

Robb is the the first Stark in known history to actually lose the North. His successor has a lot to do.

51 minutes ago, John Doe said:

Stannis survived and has the best military record out of any of the five kings, so he can't be put below Balon either. 

Sure he can. Stannis is less powerful now than when he put the Crown on. Though Stannis' campaign is not over currently he has done worse. That may change, he may end up as the overall winner out of the five Kings. It would certainly make for an interesting final two books.

51 minutes ago, John Doe said:

Now that's true, but that has more to do with poor planning on Robb's part and him being occupied with Tywin than with Balons own abilities. 

Which Balon was counting on. "King Robb the Boy. Casterly Rock is too strong, and Lord Tywin too cunning by half."

Balon rightly predicted who would be the eventual victor in that squabble and planned accordingly. Robb had his direwolf and attacked sleeping enemies, Tywin had the best negotiators in the realm on his side, Stannis a magical assassin and Balon had his knowledge of the other campaigners. Balon predicting the right side to attack and the right person not to aggravate was an impressive move and just as valid for him as a military leader as the other commanders special moves.

[Free Northman Reborn]

Littedragon

It is fine that you are arguing based on eventual outcomes - or current outcomes halfway through the series, to be more accurate. But that does not make Balon Greyjoy a tactical or strategic genius.

If the fate of a kingdom was at stake, precious few people would pick Balon Greyjoy as their leader, instead of Stannis, Eddard Stark, Robert Baratheon or Tywin Lannister, or a dozen other saner people.

Balon Greyjoy is widely touted as having been a few cards short of a full deck. The happenstance of fate hardly makes him this great leader you try to claim him to be. If Euron were to die today, you could claim that he too left the Ironborn with more territory and castles than they had when he found them. That does not make him a military genius. He too is one crazy son of a bitch - pretty much a full deck short of a full deck.

[John Doe]

1 minute ago, thelittledragonthatcould said:

 

 It is appropriate because Balon succeeded where Robb failed. Balon's heirs inherited a larger kingdom than Balon inherited and Robb's heirs (if there are any) inherited less and will have to regain what Robb lost.

Robb is the the first Stark in known history to actually lose the North. His successor has a lot to do.

Sure he can. Stannis is less powerful now than when he put the Crown on. Though Stannis' campaign is not over currently he has done worse. That may change, he may end up as the overall winner out of the five Kings. It would certainly make for an interesting final two books.

Which Balon was counting on. "King Robb the Boy. Casterly Rock is too strong, and Lord Tywin too cunning by half."

Balon rightly predicted who would be the eventual victor in that squabble and planned accordingly. Robb had his direwolf and attacked sleeping enemies, Tywin had the best negotiators in the realm on his side, Stannis a magical assassin and Balon had his knowledge of the other campaigners. Balon predicting the right side to attack and the right person not to aggravate was an impressive move and just as valid for him as a military leader as the other commanders special moves.

It's difficult to judge. You seem to base your argument on the end result, I think circumstances are more important. Balon has performed poorly in his first rebellion and as well as could be expected in his second rebellion considering Robb Stark left the North almost undefended. Stannis was less powerful in the end, but being the only candidate left and still having a shot at winning isn't unimpressive considering he was the weakest king to begin with. 

Balon's prediction was kind of a self-fullfilling prophecy though as his own attack led to the loss of Winterfell, which damaged Robb's reputation, which in turn led to Roose's betrayal, and ultimately to the Bolton/Lannister/Frey conspiracy that ended his campaign. And I just think it was a massive blunder on Balon's side that he failed to negotiate with Tywin before his attack that doesn't bode well for his judgement when you add his false prediction that Robert would be too weak to defeat him that made him start his first rebellion. 

[thelittledragonthatcould]

7 minutes ago, John Doe said:

It's difficult to judge. You seem to base your argument on the end result, I think circumstances are more important. Balon has performed poorly in his first rebellion and as well as could be expected in his second rebellion considering Robb Stark left the North almost undefended. Stannis was less powerful in the end, but being the only candidate left and still having a shot at winning isn't unimpressive considering he was the weakest king to begin with. 

I agree. I will gladly change my mind if Stannis does have a comeback which is very much a possibility given the Iron Bank support of him.

7 minutes ago, John Doe said:

 And I just think it was a massive blunder on Balon's side that he failed to negotiate with Tywin before his attack that doesn't bode well for his judgement when you add his false prediction that Robert would be too weak to defeat him that made him start his first rebellion. 

I don't think it was that much of a blunder. Who could have predicted that Robb would piss off so many of his own bannermen and they would all beat Balon to a deal.

[John Doe]

4 minutes ago, thelittledragonthatcould said:

I agree. I will gladly change my mind if Stannis does have a comeback which is very much a possibility given the Iron Bank support of him.

Fair enough.

4 minutes ago, thelittledragonthatcould said:

I don't think it was that much of a blunder. Who could have predicted that Robb would piss off so many of his own bannermen and they would all beat Balon to a deal.

He had nothing to offer Tywin once he started attacking the North, that's the crucial point. Tywin (or Renly, for that matter) had no reason to agree to an alliance and offer Balon independence in exchange for something he already did. And considering that Balon had to consider there was still the biggest fleet in Westeros untouched he should have made sure that the risk of the winner in the south wanting to attack him while he was busy fighting northeners was as low as possible.

[thelittledragonthatcould]

17 minutes ago, John Doe said:

 

He had nothing to offer Tywin once he started attacking the North, that's the crucial point. Tywin (or Renly, for that matter) had no reason to agree to an alliance and offer Balon independence in exchange for something he already did.

The Reach Lords were in favor of that alliance and given that Tywin was considering marrying Cersie off to one of the Greyjoys he clearly had not ruled it out.

Balon had peace to offer and a decent plan to attack and beat Robb at Moat Cailin. I also think he was willing to negotiate a smaller slice of the North and to put away his crown.

"No man has ever died from bending his knee," her father had once told her. "He who kneels may rise again, blade in hand. He who will not kneel stays dead, stiff legs and all."

He also has a single son, daughter and brother to offer in bids to gain alliances with the Crown. I think he would have gotten his peace and he would have gotten some lands in the North. His heir Asha seems to see that as the key goal and it is not unthinkable that was the goal between father and daughter but needed to declare himself King to properly motivate his men.

Balon's plan, while not hugely ambitious, makes a lot of sense to me and seems to have been successful. Of course I could be wrong and GRRM really did write him as lucky idiot who made the wrong choice after wrong choice, like is often parroted on here, and was successful through random luck.

 

[John Doe]

5 minutes ago, thelittledragonthatcould said:

The Reach Lords were in favor of that alliance and given that Tywin was considering marrying Cersie off to one of the Greyjoys he clearly had not ruled it out.

Balon had peace to offer and a decent plan to attack and beat Robb at Moat Cailin. I also think he was willing to negotiate a smaller slice of the North and to put away his crown.

"No man has ever died from bending his knee," her father had once told her. "He who kneels may rise again, blade in hand. He who will not kneel stays dead, stiff legs and all."

He also has a single son, daughter and brother to offer in bids to gain alliances with the Crown. I think he would have gotten his peace and he would have gotten some lands in the North. His heir Asha seems to see that as the key goal and it is not unthinkable that was the goal between father and daughter but needed to declare himself King to properly motivate his men.

Balon's plan, while not hugely ambitious, makes a lot of sense to me and seems to have been successful. Of course I could be wrong and GRRM really did write him as lucky idiot who made the wrong choice after wrong choice, like is often parroted on here, and was successful through random luck.

 

I wouldn't necessarily say that Balon was the worst military leader as the OP does, but I just don't think he has much going for him. He lost one rebellion and managed to take some almost undefended lands during the other, so  there's nothing about his military prowess that impresses me either. Robb at least was a good general.

[Sullen]

18 minutes ago, John Doe said:

He had nothing to offer Tywin once he started attacking the North, that's the crucial point.

Peace, and a quicker end to the Northmen.

That's not necessarily nothing.

18 minutes ago, John Doe said:

Tywin (or Renly, for that matter) had no reason to agree to an alliance and offer Balon independence in exchange for something he already did. 

His speech to Asha about the importance of bending the knee implies he was planning on bending the knee again, besides, Tyrell, the real power player, was willing to let him keep independence.

21 minutes ago, John Doe said:

And considering that Balon had to consider there was still the biggest fleet in Westeros untouched

The Iron Fleet was the biggest fleet in Westeros.

Stannis winning against Victarion while manning both the Royal Fleet and the Redwyne fleet is seen as an incredible feat, winning against the Iron Fleet with mostly the Redwyne fleet, and someone else than Stannis as admiral, is nothing certain, it's extremely risky.

24 minutes ago, John Doe said:

he should have made sure that the risk of the winner in the south wanting to attack him while he was busy fighting northeners was as low as possible.

That's essentially what he did... he never attacked/raided a single time in the South during his independence stint despite it being quite open and richer, because it would have antagonized whoever came out of the war the victor. Attacking the North ensures there is no reprisal.

[Sullen]

1 minute ago, John Doe said:

I wouldn't necessarily say that Balon was the worst military leader as the OP does, but I just don't think he has much going for him. He lost one rebellion and managed to take some almost undefended lands during the other, so  there's nothing about his military prowess that impresses me either. Robb at least was a good general.

Robb was a great tactician, but he was a pretty poor general.

He failed to keep his men in line, delegated to the wrong people constantly, and made a crucial error of miscommunication with Edmure, that arguably ruined his campaign, although I believe Edmure actually saved his ass here.

Balon's lost rebellion could be blamed on a lack of political insight as much as Robb's, he expected the Crown authority to be so weak that the Reach and Dorne would have rebelled at the same time as he did, they didn't, and that kind of put him in a pickle.

[John Doe]

6 minutes ago, Sullen said:

Peace, and a quicker end to the Northmen.

His speech to Asha about the importance of bending the knee implies he was planning on bending the knee again, besides, Tyrell, the real power player, was willing to let him keep independence.

The Iron Fleet was the biggest fleet in Westeros.

Stannis winning against Victarion while manning both the Royal Fleet and the Redwyne fleet is seen as an incredible feat, winning against the Iron Fleet with mostly the Redwyne fleet, and someone else than Stannis as admiral, is nothing certain, it's extremely risky.

That's essentially what he did... he never attacked/raided a single time in the South during his independence stint despite it being quite open and richer, because it would have antagonized whoever came out of the war the victor. Attacking the North ensures there is no reprisal.

Any southern winner wouldn't need to fear Balon, peace was more important to him than to any possible southern candidate. And Balon would have had more to lose by making peace with the Northmen too. 

Fair enough. 

No, the Iron Fleet has 100 ships, the Redwyne fleet has 200 war galleys. And the Reach has much more money to hire sellswords if need be.

Where does it say he had both the royal and the Redwyne fleet at his disposal during the battle? I don't think it would be considered as impressive as it is by book characters if he had both fleets. 

That is true, but I think it would have been a lot smarter to secure an alliance before striking. It is debatable how bad his decision not to negotiate an alliance beforehand was though, and I think that's pretty much a matter of opinion.