Balon is the worst Military Leader in recent history

[Sullen]

2 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

For that to hold water he would have had to predict Theon's taking of Winterfell, Roose Bolton's resultant betrayal, and Robb's fallout with the Freys, Without those three events, Robb would be back in the North, fighting Balon with a significant Northern army.

He needed to predict that Robb would make a mistake, which he did.

He doesn't need to be freaking Nostradamus and specify the very details under which Robb would crack, he just has to say that Robb will eventually have a mistake that'll come to bite him in the ass, it was a good gamble. Even Robb's march back North wasn't a certain thing, he could have been broken by Tywin in the meantime, he could have easily been defeated by Victarion at Moat Cailin too.

Him not predicting Roose's betrayal actually hampered his plans by the way. It cost him an alliance with Tywin/the Iron Throne.

[thelittledragonthatcould]

3 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Spare me the false indignation.

Whenever someone points out the ludicrous errors made in the North - as evidence of absurd plot contrivances to bring down the Starks

How is it a contrivance? The North has been entirely consistent in the five books GRRM has published.

AGOT: Robert informs the reader how empty the North is. Bran informs the reader that; "Your lord father took the cream of his guard to King's Landing, and your brother took the rest, along with all the likely lads for leagues around."

ACOK: Umber informs the reader that "aye, and strong men to sail them. The Greatjon took too many. Half our harvest is gone to seed for want of arms to swing the scythes." While Rodrik complains about not having the strength to control the other Northern Lords. We also see how easy the Ironborn are able to take parts of the North.

ASOS: Instead of relying on the, apparently, thousands of Northern soldiers sitting on their ass in the North Robb instead decides to do it himself :"And what of the Trident, if I turn north? I can't ask the river lords to abandon their own people."

"No," said Catelyn. "Leave them to guard their own, and win back the north with northmen."

 

ADWD: Alys Kastark mentions how few men were left in her lands; "Not well." Alys sighed. "My father took so many of our men south with him that only the women and young boys were left to bring the harvest in. Them, and the men too old or crippled to go off to war. Crops withered in the fields or were pounded into the mud by autumn rains. And now the snows are come. This winter will be hard. Few of the old people will survive it, and many children will perish as well."

 

The author has been incredibly consistent with his description of the North and its capabilities.  There is nothing absurd about it.

4 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

For that to hold water he would have had to predict Theon's taking of Winterfell, Roose Bolton's resultant betrayal, and Robb's fallout with the Freys, Without those three events, Robb would be back in the North, fighting Balon with a significant Northern army.

Robb went to war against the Crown. He predicted that Robb would be hurt by his Souther enemies

"Already we command the western seas. Once we hold Moat Cailin, the pup will not be able to win back to the north . . . and if he is fool enough to try, his enemies will seal the south end of the causeway behind him, and Robb the boy will find himself caught like a rat in a bottle."

 

Not only that, the books from the very beginning have hammered home just how important Moat Cailin is in stopping invading armies.

"Is that wise? You are strongly placed here. It's said that the old Kings in the North could stand at Moat Cailin and throw back hosts ten times the size of their own."

[ForTheNorth]

3 minutes ago, Sullen said:

Not feasible while the Iron Throne exists, the institution is too powerful for Balon to do anything against it without them retaliating tenfolds, in case you forgot what happened during his first Rebellion.

Nah. The iron throne is in disarray. When Robert was King it was far stronger then it is now. In fact Cercei when hearing news of the Iron Born invasion of the Reach is indifferent and considers it a Highgarden matter. This is the perfect time to attack for spoils everyone in the kingdom is at odds. The north is in open rebellion again, Aegon in the storyline and you might have a civil war between the Tyrells and Lannnisters in the capital. Prey tell how do you believe the Stone shore provides Balon with a good base when Winter is coming?

Instead, he's focusing on acquiring easy territory with little to no risk, consolidating his power. Think of the Mongols conquering the Steppes before moving on to China and further West, if you will. Focusing on what the Vikings did historically completely misses the mark, as no territory is as vulnerable as the decentralized France's northern coasts, or the petty kingdoms in Great Britain that the vikings raided/conquered, and even those had them struggling.

No, the Mongols were nomadic they had no power base. They would raid the Chinese constantly long before Ghengis Khan came to power. Khan uniting the tribes of Mongolia is hardly the same. The Dothraki modeled after the Mongols extort rich cities in Essos, they don't attack fishing villages and try to hold sparsely populated hostile coasts 

as for the Viking 

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Siege_of_Paris_(845)

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Viking_expansion

they pretty much hit every major target in Europe including Muslim Spain apart of the most powerful empire at the time.

3 minutes ago, Sullen said:

Except Asha says they should keep the Coast, which was arguably what Balon intended to do since the very beginning considering his talk to her about bending the knee.

How would Asha keep the coast through Winter? 

Euron has the power of magic/plot working in his favour, attacking Oldtown in any other situation is suicide, hence why everyone thinks he's batshit insane. If you think attacking Oldtown is smart without magic on your side, then I suggest you review the situation. As soon as he captures Oldtown, he's got the armies/fleets of the Iron Throne on his ass, and I hardly see him surviving an assault where he is outnumbered 10 to 1. Without magic, it's Balon's first Rebellion all over again. (Except this time around, there's not even the possibility of the Reach being on his side) Except we know from Cercei she is not sending aid to the Reachmen, see above. Also a quick sack of oldtown would yield more loot than holding the stone shore would in 100 years 

 

3 minutes ago, Sullen said:

The Northmen are less numerous, more vulnerable, do not have a fleet (so no possibility of retaliation), and do not have the protection of the Iron Throne. Tell me how many times throughout westerosi history have the ironmen been able to hold northern territory for long periods of time?

[tallTale]

Quote

Tywin got his objectives but lost 15-20k of his army in the process and Stafford and Jaime both made similar, stupid mistakes in regards to not properly screening their defences.

 

 

Tywin made brilliant strategic moves in brokering alliances with the Tyrells/Freys. Both were crucial in defeating Stannis/Starks. Not only did he defeat his strongest adversaries (the Starks), he basically curb stomped them into near oblivion.

Losing men happens when you're fighting a damn near half continent of enemies. Morality aside, not sure how anyone can complain about him as a military leader. 

[Lord_Ravenstone]

6 hours ago, thelittledragonthatcould said:

It was also down to them largely being untrained boys.

Do you not understand what military command is? Serious question as you seem to have trouble grasping exactly what a General/Military commander is supposed to do.

Theon is a subordinate of Balon's. His victories and losses are Balons. This is the same for Tywin and Stafford and Robb and Roose. Commanders delegate repsonsibility.

Winterfell the castle did not.

 

Clearly not as proven by the source material.

lol they are not.

Jaime had 15k men. Robb beat it but we know 4k escaped with out fighting with Prester, and likely others escaped to where Tywin was.

You might want to double check the books.

Did he?

Yup, as in intelligently left the stronger places well enough alone. In his own words he did not have the strnegth to take on certain settlements.

 

Some of them were untrained boys but not all of them. Rodrik had a 2 k army gathered from Stark and Cerwyn lands

Except Theon rebelled against Balon's commands to harass the Stony Shore and left to go do his own thing.

Rodrik had 600 men from Winterfell and its area that he took. 

I was sub-consciously adding in the Battle of Oxcross. But there's no hint or implication that they traveled 200 miles east to reach Tywin.

I mean Tywin's army fought in the Battle of the Green Fork where he lost 1,000 men, the Battle of Fords, BWB raiding etc.

But none of the settlements could do anything to stop him 

[Lord_Ravenstone]

9 minutes ago, Sullen said:

He needed to predict that Robb would make a mistake, which he did.

He doesn't need to be freaking Nostradamus and specify the very details under which Robb would crack, he just has to say that Robb will eventually have a mistake that'll come to bite him in the ass, it was a good gamble. Even Robb's march back North wasn't a certain thing, he could have been broken by Tywin in the meantime, he could have easily been defeated by Victarion at Moat Cailin too.

Him not predicting Roose's betrayal actually hampered his plans by the way. It cost him an alliance with Tywin/the Iron Throne.

Nonsensical response. Balon cost Balon that alliance. Tywin was never going to ally with Balon and give him half of Westeros  unless Balon would set aside his crown.

[Free Northman Reborn]

4 minutes ago, thelittledragonthatcould said:

How is it a contrivance? The North has been entirely consistent in the five books GRRM has published.

AGOT: Robert informs the reader how empty the North is. Bran informs the reader that; "Your lord father took the cream of his guard to King's Landing, and your brother took the rest, along with all the likely lads for leagues around."

ACOK: Umber informs the reader that "aye, and strong men to sail them. The Greatjon took too many. Half our harvest is gone to seed for want of arms to swing the scythes." While Rodrik complains about not having the strength to control the other Northern Lords. We also see how easy the Ironborn are able to take parts of the North.

ASOS: Instead of relying on the, apparently, thousands of Northern soldiers sitting on their ass in the North Robb instead decides to do it himself :"And what of the Trident, if I turn north? I can't ask the river lords to abandon their own people."

"No," said Catelyn. "Leave them to guard their own, and win back the north with northmen."

 

ADWD: Alys Kastark mentions how few men were left in her lands; "Not well." Alys sighed. "My father took so many of our men south with him that only the women and young boys were left to bring the harvest in. Them, and the men too old or crippled to go off to war. Crops withered in the fields or were pounded into the mud by autumn rains. And now the snows are come. This winter will be hard. Few of the old people will survive it, and many children will perish as well."

 

The author has been incredibly consistent with his description of the North and its capabilities.  There is nothing absurd about it.

Robb went to war against the Crown. He predicted that Robb would be hurt by his Souther enemies

"Already we command the western seas. Once we hold Moat Cailin, the pup will not be able to win back to the north . . . and if he is fool enough to try, his enemies will seal the south end of the causeway behind him, and Robb the boy will find himself caught like a rat in a bottle."

 

Not only that, the books from the very beginning have hammered home just how important Moat Cailin is in stopping invading armies.

"Is that wise? You are strongly placed here. It's said that the old Kings in the North could stand at Moat Cailin and throw back hosts ten times the size of their own."

That is a rambling post, totally ignoring the actual plot absurdities I referred to, and instead pretending that those absurdities were the assessed military strenth of the North. Which has nothing to do with said plot absurdities, which primarily were:

1. The absurd taking of Winterfell by 20 Sea raiders 500 miles from the Sea, which was not part of Balon's plan.

2. The fact that Robb happened to sleep with Jeyne Westerling

3. Roose Bolton's betrayal.

Regarding your quotes:

Rodrik was complaining about the men in the immediate vicinity of Winterfell. Which is clear when he talks about the fact that Eddard took the cream of the crop. Eddard only took men from Winterfell itself. And this is enhanced by Rodrik's statement that Robb took all the likely lads for leagues around. That's the immediate vicinity of Winterfell.

But it is clear that the same does not apply everywhere. The Karstarks and Umbers, yes, because they were particularly fervent in going to war. The Glovers and Tallharts too, as they appear particularly tight under Winterfell's sway. Elswhere not so much.

The fact that Rodrik did not have enough men to stop the Manderlys and Boltons from fighting shows that both the Boltons and Manderlys had signficant numbers of men left. Those are Northmen that Balon would have to defeat as part of his quest to conquer the North.

Barrowton kept the maximum number of men back. The Mountain Clans too. The Ryswells seem to have followed the Dustins lead.

Stannis finds more men streaming from the Wolfswood. Manderly is finding more men to recruit as refugees stream into White Harbor. We don't know how many men came from Widow's Watch, the Hornwood lands and and other eastern areas.

And even after the Umbers have sent their best men south with Robb, Jon judges them still able to cut Stannis experienced knights to ribbons if they dared march over their lands as enemies. How much more would that apply to the Ironborn trying to march across the entire North.

[Sullen]

Just now, ForTheNorth said:

Nah. The iron throne is in disarray. When Robert was King it was far stronger then it is now. In fact Cercei when hearing news of the Iron Born invasion of the Reach is indifferent and considers it a Highgarden matter. This is the perfect time to attack for spoils everyone in the kingdom is at odds. The north is in open rebellion again, Aegon in the storyline and you might have a civil war between the Tyrells and Lannnisters in the capital. Prey tell how do you believe the Stone shore provides Balon with a good base when Winter is coming?

And once the Iron Throne is consolidated and peace is brought back, Balon/Euron is first on the hitlist with no means to defend himself.

2 minutes ago, ForTheNorth said:

No, the Mongols were nomadic they had no power base. They would raid the Chinese constantly long before Ghengis Khan came to power. Khan uniting the tribes of Mongolia is hardly the same. The Dothraki modeled after the Mongols extort rich cities in Essos, they don't attack fishing villages and try to hold sparsely populated hostile coasts 

Raid, and not conquer. You do not gain more power by only raiding.

Temujin united the steppes before conquering more impressive foes, he's consolidating power, it's the exact same concept.

5 minutes ago, ForTheNorth said:

as for the Viking 

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Siege_of_Paris_(845)

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Viking_expansio

France was decentralized at that time, and unable to retaliate.

And the other conquests were all against smaller states than they were, states they could completely overpower militarily. The closest thing to something similar in Balon's time is the independent North.

6 minutes ago, ForTheNorth said:

How would Asha keep the coast through Winter? 

How would she lose the coast through the Winter?

Either Robb is dead due to the Red Wedding, or Balon allies himself with Tywin. The North is broken, left without leadership and experienced men. Fighting either one (in the case Balon returns in the King's peace) or two (in case he doesn't) Kings.

10 minutes ago, ForTheNorth said:

Except we know from Cercei she is not sending aid to the Reachmen, see above. 

For now, it won't take 100 years for the Throne to take action. Besides, Redwyne is supposedly on his way now that Dragonstone has fallen.

12 minutes ago, ForTheNorth said:

Also a quick sack of oldtown would yield more loot than holding the stone shore would in 100 years 

Except that they don't get to keep that loot and are set back another 15 years behind once the Throne retaliates. It's Lannisport all over again.

13 minutes ago, ForTheNorth said:

Tell me how many times throughout westerosi history have the ironmen been able to hold northern territory for long periods of time?

They kept Cape Kraken and Bear Island for a good amount of time, and that was without the support of the Iron Throne. (Which Balon was relying on)

[watcher of the night]

43 minutes ago, Sullen said:

Not feasible while the Iron Throne exists, the institution is too powerful for Balon to do anything against it without them retaliating tenfolds, in case you forgot what happened during his first Rebellion.

It is not even clear who sits on the iron trhone. Whoever is the winner is lot more weaker than Robert after RR. Heck, if Balon attacks Lannsiport and Tywin returns to the Westerlands then the Lanisters lose KL and the throne, which means a zero chance of retribution. 

 

Quote

Instead, he's focusing on acquiring easy territory with little to no risk, consolidating his power. Think of the Mongols conquering the Steppes before moving on to China and further West, if you will.

 

I do not think it is an apt comparison: the mongols were steppe nomads, they did not have to "conquere" it. Yes Dzingis had to unite them but it is more like a Greyjoy uniting the ironborn than a conquest of a huge land where they are out of their elements.

 

18 minutes ago, Sullen said:

Balon's whole strategy is to profit of the North's vulnerability and Robb's perceived inexperience while not antagonizing the Throne, and it worked perfectly. You cannot talk about Balon's campaign in the North without talking about Robb's in the South, they are intrinsically linked.

Balon bet on the fact that Robb was inexperienced and that the North wasn't ready to suffer an assault from the sea, he was right on both cases. He also bet on the supposition that the Throne would cooperate with him/allow him to come back into the King's peace, but he was wrong on that point considering Tywin found a more effective way to dispatch Robb.

Again, he could not be sure who would be sitting on the iron throne in a years time. I doubt that Stannis or even Renly would have been greatful to Balon allowing him to keep even small part of the North (assuming he succeded to hold on to it). Even if he succeds keeping the stoney shore what did he gained? Probably the most barren part of the seven kingdoms with a few piss poor fishermen villages. Does it really worth the effort? Sending the whole ironfleet in the hellhole of Moat Cailin? To get a handful of fisher villages after years of war? Instead of using the opportonuity of the chaos of the 5 kings and raiding juicy targets of the Westerland or even the Reach? I think it is either monumental stupidity or a cheap plot device to dig the Starks deeper (or both). 

[Free Northman Reborn]

1 minute ago, Sullen said:

They kept Cape Kraken and Bear Island for a good amount of time, and that was without the support of the Iron Throne. (Which Balon was relying on)

To be fair, the height of ancient Ironborn power also coincided with the Starks still fighting the likes of the Boltons and other enemies in a North still being united.

As for Cape Kraken and Bear Island, they are so far removed from the Stark center of power that I am frankly surprised that the Starks were ever able to expell the Ironborn from there. Especially given their lack of a fleet.

 

 

 

[Sullen]

9 minutes ago, Lord_Ravenstone said:

Nonsensical response. Balon cost Balon that alliance. Tywin was never going to ally with Balon and give him half of Westeros  unless Balon would set aside his crown.

There are plenty of signs that the Lannister camp was open to an alliance with the Greyjoys.

1) Theon is brought up as a valid, believable match for Myrcella by Tyrion

2) Both Theon and Balon are brought up by Tywin to be potential matches for Cersei

3) Both Tyrell and Redwyne were favourable to Balon's alliance proposal, Tywin set it aside because, unknown to them, he had a better alternative already planned.

And then of course there's the whole matter of setting the crown aside you yourself mentionned, which is hinted at in Balon's talk with Asha about knee-bending.

[watcher of the night]

6 minutes ago, Sullen said:

Temujin united the steppes before conquering more impressive foes, he's consolidating power, it's the exact same concept.

 

 

You are misguiding yourself if you think that there was anything to unite at the Stoney Shores. Unite with whom? With the fishermen? Are you kidding?

 

Quote

France was decentralized at that time, and unable to retaliate.

Just as the mainland kingdom of westeros. No one could predict that the war would be over in a year.

[thelittledragonthatcould]

Just now, Lord_Ravenstone said:

Some of them were untrained boys but not all of them. Rodrik had a 2 k army gathered from Stark and Cerwyn lands

According to the books they were. Not only are we told that they were very young;

"The oldest were men grown, seventeen and eighteen years from the day of their naming. One was past twenty. Most were younger, sixteen or less."

but they were also not even the best of their age

"Your lord father took the cream of his guard to King's Landing, and your brother took the rest, along with all the likely lads for leagues around."

 

We know the Karstarks and Umbers had similar issues. It would not be surprising if many of the other Lords had similar issues.

 

And it was not 2k from the Stark and Cerwyn lands but 900. Rodrik had 2,000 when he was joined by the Tallharts, Karstarks, Hornwoods, Manderlys and Flints.

 

Just now, Lord_Ravenstone said:

Except Theon rebelled against Balon's commands to harass the Stony Shore and left to go do his own thing.

Yup. Theon was a failing, Asha, Aeron and Victarion (all of who were ahead of Theon in the command structure) did their jobs very well.

He was the least trusted Greyjoy in the war so his failings resulted in few casualties.

Just now, Lord_Ravenstone said:

Rodrik had 600 men from Winterfell and its area that he took. 

Exactly,. From the various Holdfasts in the very, very large Stark lands.

Just now, Lord_Ravenstone said:

I was sub-consciously adding in the Battle of Oxcross. But there's no hint or implication that they traveled 200 miles east to reach Tywin.

Of course there is. The guy who is making the report was in one of those camps.

 "By the time our men knew what was happening, riders were pouring over the ditch banks and galloping through the camp with swords and torches in hand. I was sleeping in the west camp, between the rivers. When we heard the fighting and saw the tents being fired"

And it is not like they had to go directly to Harrenhal, the nearby Raventree Hall was under Lannister control at the time.

Just now, Lord_Ravenstone said:

I mean Tywin's army fought in the Battle of the Green Fork where he lost 1,000 men, the Battle of Fords, BWB raiding etc.

Where is over 1k mentioned in the battle of the Green Fork?

Just now, Lord_Ravenstone said:

But none of the settlements could do anything to stop him 

Stop him what? They had the numbers to stop him from taking Lannisport, Caterly Rock, Golden Tooth etc.

 

15 minutes ago, Lord_Ravenstone said:

Nonsensical response. Balon cost Balon that alliance. Tywin was never going to ally with Balon and give him half of Westeros  unless Balon would set aside his crown.

Well two things, we know that Balon initiated the talk of an alliance and that he has once before set aside his crown "He who kneels may rise again, blade in hand. He who will not kneel stays dead, stiff legs and all."

Secondly Tywin was not opposed to an Ironborn alliance, it is just that Roose and Walder had got there first. He clearly does not have a problem with the Greyjoys as both Balon and Theon are discussed as possibilities for Cersei.

 

12 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

 

1. The absurd taking of Winterfell by 20 Sea raiders 500 miles from the Sea, which was not part of Balon's plan.

Theon knows Winterfell and its defenses as well as any of the newly trained children Robb left in charge.

We are told from AGOT just how poorly defended Winterfell was. Not a plot contrivance. It was not even subtle.

12 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

2. The fact that Robb happened to sleep with Jeyne Westerling

lol 15 year old sleeps with attractive girl. Human nature, not a plot contrivance.

12 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

3. Roose Bolton's betrayal.

lol Seasoned leader witnesses Robb betray the Freys, execute Lord Karstark and the Crown beat Stannis with the largest army in the Realm..

There is nothing absurd about his decision. Robb was refusing to surrender in an unwinnable war.

12 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

snip

Continue to ignore the books for your own interpretations.

I can only say when TWOW is eventually published one of us is going to be very, very smug about the further revelations of the Northern strength.

[Sullen]

3 minutes ago, watcher of the night said:

It is not even clear who sits on the iron trhone. Whoever is the winner is lot more weaker than Robert after RR. Heck, if Balon attacks Lannsiport and Tywin returns to the Westerlands then the Lanisters lose KL and the throne, which means a zero chance of retribution.

Whoever wins the Iron Throne is not going to let Balon keep something as important as Lannisport, which means very little gain for Balon, and potential reprisal.

5 minutes ago, watcher of the night said:

I do not think it is an apt comparison: the mongols were steppe nomads, they did not have to "conquere" it. Yes Dzingis had to unite them but it is more like a Greyjoy uniting the ironborn than a conquest of a huge land where they are out of their elements.

He had to amass larger numbers if he was to conquer something bigger, the only way Balon can do that is by conquering weaker vulnerable enemies and gaining more territory, which is what he was doing with the North's Western Coast.

6 minutes ago, watcher of the night said:

Again, he could not be sure who would be sitting on the iron throne in a years time. I doubt that Stannis or even Renly would have been greatful to Balon allowing him to keep even small part of the North (assuming he succeded to hold on to it). 

You're not keeping in consideration how demanding an assault on the Iron Islands is considering the supremacy of Balon's fleet. If Balon swears fealty in exchange for the Northern coast, they'd be foolish to refuse. (Though Stannis most likely would)

8 minutes ago, watcher of the night said:

Even if he succeds keeping the stoney shore what did he gained? Probably the most barren part of the seven kingdoms with a few piss poor fishermen villages. 

The Stoney Shore, Cape Kraken, Dragonclaw Point, Deepwood (So a part of the Wolfswood), potentially even Moat Cailin. He essentially multiplies the size of his Kingdom and gets access to lumber, which the Isles sorely lack.

The Iron Islands are stated to be the most barren part of the Seven Kingdoms, at this point, anything is better.

14 minutes ago, watcher of the night said:

To get a handful of fisher villages after years of war? Instead of using the opportonuity of the chaos of the 5 kings and raiding juicy targets of the Westerland or even the Reach? I think it is either monumental stupidity or a cheap plot device to dig the Starks deeper (or both). 

Raiding can only brings you so far, conquest is what ensures a powerful future for the Ironborn, which is what Balon wanted.

Riches are ephemeral, lands are what you need to grow stronger, as Asha herself points out during her Queensmoot.

[Sullen]

10 minutes ago, watcher of the night said:

You are misguiding yourself if you think that there was anything to unite at the Stoney Shores. Unite with whom? With the fishermen? Are you kidding?

Growth can be a long process, mate. More lands means more population, which in turn means more manpower in the long run.

12 minutes ago, watcher of the night said:

Just as the mainland kingdom of westeros. No one could predict that the war would be over in a year.

France was unable to retaliate once the raids are over, period. While the Westerosi could easily crush Balon once the war was over.

It's not the same.

[Free Northman Reborn]

1 hour ago, thelittledragonthatcould said:

According to the books they were. Not only are we told that they were very young;

"The oldest were men grown, seventeen and eighteen years from the day of their naming. One was past twenty. Most were younger, sixteen or less."

but they were also not even the best of their age

"Your lord father took the cream of his guard to King's Landing, and your brother took the rest, along with all the likely lads for leagues around."

 

We know the Karstarks and Umbers had similar issues. It would not be surprising if many of the other Lords had similar issues.

 

And it was not 2k from the Stark and Cerwyn lands but 900. Rodrik had 2,000 when he was joined by the Tallharts, Karstarks, Hornwoods, Manderlys and Flints.

 

Yup. Theon was a failing, Asha, Aeron and Victarion (all of who were ahead of Theon in the command structure) did their jobs very well.

He was the least trusted Greyjoy in the war so his failings resulted in few casualties.

Exactly,. From the various Holdfasts in the very, very large Stark lands.

Of course there is. The guy who is making the report was in one of those camps.

 "By the time our men knew what was happening, riders were pouring over the ditch banks and galloping through the camp with swords and torches in hand. I was sleeping in the west camp, between the rivers. When we heard the fighting and saw the tents being fired"

And it is not like they had to go directly to Harrenhal, the nearby Raventree Hall was under Lannister control at the time.

Where is over 1k mentioned in the battle of the Green Fork?

Stop him what? They had the numbers to stop him from taking Lannisport, Caterly Rock, Golden Tooth etc.

 

Well two things, we know that Balon initiated the talk of an alliance and that he has once before set aside his crown "He who kneels may rise again, blade in hand. He who will not kneel stays dead, stiff legs and all."

Secondly Tywin was not opposed to an Ironborn alliance, it is just that Roose and Walder had got there first. He clearly does not have a problem with the Greyjoys as both Balon and Theon are discussed as possibilities for Cersei.

 

Theon knows Winterfell and its defenses as well as any of the newly trained children Robb left in charge.

We are told from AGOT just how poorly defended Winterfell was. Not a plot contrivance. It was not even subtle.

lol 15 year old sleeps with attractive girl. Human nature, not a plot contrivance.

lol Seasoned leader witnesses Robb betray the Freys, execute Lord Karstark and the Crown beat Stannis with the largest army in the Realm..

There is nothing absurd about his decision. Robb was refusing to surrender in an unwinnable war.

Continue to ignore the books for your own interpretations.

I can only say when TWOW is eventually published one of us is going to be very, very smug about the further revelations of the Northern strength.

Well since you keep going there, let's talk about it. How many men do you believe Manderly has? We have seen about 2000 men from him thus far. How many do you think he has in total? Less than the Freys, who have shown around 5000 to date?

How many men do you think Skagos has? We have seen none from them thus far. Less than 2000? How many men do you think the Dustins held back from Robb's host? She said she sent the minimum number possible. The Mountain Clans seem to have held back at least 2000.

Martin's direct quote was that in the North the lords are more hesitant to beat their plowshares into swords, given the harshness of their Winters. This was in direct support of his statement that the North does not gather its full strength as easily or as quickly as other regions. So since the Umbers and Kartstarks do not seem to have adhered to that hesitation, clearly he must have been referring to the other Northern lords.

We know that the least of Robb's bannermen can raise more than 1000 men. And we know that many of them can raise significantly more. The Clans seem to have a strength in the order of 3000 men. The Karstarks have raised 2800 to date. Bolton seems to have in the region of 4000. Barrowton must be close to the Bolton strength. And the Manderlys significantly higher than both.

Add it all up. 35k is a minimum strength for the North. Without Skagos. In fact, it is very difficult to get to a strength below 40k altogether. For example, conservatively, if you go from North to South and give the Mormonts and Flint's of Flints finger the absolute minimum which is 1000:

Mormont - 1000 (Minimum northern bannerman strength based on Jeor's quote)

Mountain Clans - 3000 (Of which between 2000 and 2500 went with Stannis, and the rest with Robb or else stayed as the personal guards of the Clan Chiefs)

Karstark - 2800 (Depicted to date)

Umber - 2500 (Of which maybe 800 are split between Crowfood and Whoresbane)

Bolton - 4000

Hornwood - 2000

Widows Watch Flints - 2000

Locke - 1000 (Minimum northern bannerman strength based on Jeor's quote)

Manderly - 6000

Stark - 3000

Cerwyn - 1000 (Minimum northern bannerman strength based on Jeor's quote)

Dustin - 3000

Ryswell - 2000

Tallhart - 1500

Glover - 1500

Reed - 1500

Flint of Flints Finger - 1000 (Minimum northern bannerman strength based on Jeor's quote

That is pretty much as conservative an allocation as one can make, given what we know of the North, numbers listed to date, and supporting information from the books and Martin's quotes. And that already takes us to 40k men. And I see I forgot Skagos on that list. Which conservatively can be given 2000 men, if the smaller Bear Island has 1000, and that 1000 on the colder side of the continent to boot.

It is very difficult to argue for a significantly lower number than 40k for the North.

[Lord_Ravenstone]

1 hour ago, Sullen said:

There are plenty of signs that the Lannister camp was open to an alliance with the Greyjoys.

1) Theon is brought up as a valid, believable match for Myrcella by Tyrion

2) Both Theon and Balon are brought up by Tywin to be potential matches for Cersei

3) Both Tyrell and Redwyne were favourable to Balon's alliance proposal, Tywin set it aside because, unknown to them, he had a better alternative already planned.

And then of course there's the whole matter of setting the crown aside you yourself mentionned, which is hinted at in Balon's talk with Asha about knee-bending.

1) one that Varys didn't take seriously seeing as he didn't leak it to Cersei

2) Balon is still married

3) Mace is a proven idiot 

Balon can't keep taking these hits to his rep

Asha losing two battles and being captured is enough to make her think the ironborn won't want to follow her anymore 

[Abdallah]

13 hours ago, LordPathera said:

It's been said before, but I'll say it again.

ASOIAF is filled with several leaders with some being better or luckier than others. But out of all of those leaders that we've seen or heard about, Balon still sticks out in my mind as the absolute worst. Yes, he's even worst than Cersei since at least she does something well once in a while.

I may admittingly be a Stark fan, but I'm not a mindless Stark defender. The Starks and those working under or with them made their mistakes and suffered for them. I mention this now in case someone wants to dismiss my case as the "biased words of a Stark lover". That's irrelevant to Balon's stupidity, so don't debunk the topic by bringing up that nonsense. Being a fan of House Stark does not change the fact that Balon is thus far the worst military leader in ASOIAF.

So let's start with a bit of history on the man.

1) History

He's the eldest son of Quellon Greyjoy and a proud follower of the Ironborn "old ways". A strong Ironborn should take and seize his treasures through force and strength. Even as a young man, Balon was already known as a fierce and fearless reaver. This stands in contrast to his father who was known as a strong and wise ruler in his own right. But Quellon wanted to reform his people and integrate them with the rest of the Seven Kingdoms. Likely a gradual process since Quellon's men were noted to have sacked Faircastle during the reign of soft and weak Tytos Lannister.

It's not known if Balon and Quellon clashed over their opposing beliefs, but it is known that Balon wanted to join Robert's rebellion when Robert, Ned and Jon all raised their banners. Balon and his brothers apparently wanted to join the Rebellion because of the ample opportunity for loot and plunder that would be yielded from attacking the Royalist Regions while their armies were fighting Robert. But Quellon choose neutrality much like Tywin Lannister did and did not commit to the Rebel cause until after the Battle of the Trident.

Unlike Tywin, Quellon's contribution was pathetically minimal and self-harming.

After some success with navel battles and raiding, the Ironborn won a pyrrhic victory against the Reach in the Battle of the Mander. But Quellon was killed during the fighting and Balon forced to retreat home to claim and win the Seastone Chair. He rejected all of his father's reforms and began building a powerful fleet that would be called the Iron Fleet. It's not known what Balon's relationship was like with Robert, but it seems evident that his desire for independence was largely a religious and cultural one.

2) Greyjoy Rebellion

Much that has been said about this rebellion has already been said and I won't drone over all of the details.

Long story short: Balon had some initial success at Lannisport (keep this one in mind) and launching smaller raids along the Sunset coasts. But was thrown back at Seagard and lost his eldest son there, Stannis and Lord Redwyne defeated the Ironborn Navy at Fair Isle, and then Robert did what he does best. Crush things with his hammer.

Now I have to wonder when exactly Balon realized that he'd made a mistake? Was it when his first son died at Jason Mallister's hands at Seagard? Or when Stannis smashed his fleet at Fair Isle and had his brother Aeron captured? Or how about when his second son died during Robert's counterattack? Or when he was brought before Robert Baratheon in chains?

Balon's reasons for attacking are explained in story and expanded on by Martin himself. Balon apparently believed that he would lack the necessary support to fight his attempt for Independence and he could beat Robert at sea. A fine thought in theory except for a few facts:

Robert's Hand of the King and Foster Father was Lord of the Vale; Robert's best friend and foster brother was Lord of the North; Said-best friend's father-in-law was Lord of the Riverlands; Robert's youngest brother was Lord of the Stormlands and Robert's father-in-law was Lord of the West. And if you count the Crownlands as well then I can't see Balon as anything more than an idiot. He should've also known that all of these realms had previously fought to put Robert on the world's most deadly chair in the first place. Even if the Reach and Dorne were iffy concerning their loyalties and a few houses in the other regions fought for the Targaryens, there's still a huge hole in Balon's logic.

What's the answer to this question? What made Balon believe that Robert wouldn't have enough support to challenge him?

Balon is an idiot. A prideful, stubborn idiot who got his 2 older sons and thousands of his people killed for nothing. It can't even be argued that Balon had bad luck, there's nothing about this scenario of 1 vs 6 that would've ended well for Balon. 

3) Invading the North

A lot has been said about Balon's choice to invade the North.

But overall, he made a stupid decision for the sake of petty revenge against the wrong target.

Let's take a look at the climate of the War of the Five Kings (I know its only four at this point, but shush):

Renly sitting on a huge army stack of 80 to 100 thousand men from the Stormlands and the Reach.

Stannis broods at Dragonstone with barely 5,000 recruits and mercenaries.

Tywin is trapped at Harrenhal with 20,000 soldiers after losing 15,000 at Riverrun.

King's Landing is on the verge of starvation and mutiny with a barely competent garrison and one brilliant Acting Hand constantly contending with two vicious idiots named Cersei and Joffrey to try and prepare for an attack.

The North has declared independence and has 6,000 men raiding the Westerlands; 10-12 thousand men standing by North of the Trident; and the Riverlanders regathering steam and strength after the Riverrun relief. But the Riverlands remain in a state of devastating conflict thanks to Tywin's men.

Dorne and the Vale have remained neutral though the former has many reasons to hate the Westerlands and the latter is technically bound to the North and the Riverlands by a marriage pact.

It is in this atmosphere of war and chaos that Balon chooses to again claim independence and declare himself King. He then decides to assert this claim by assailing the North while much of its strength is focused in the South.

While his plan has some success with taking Moat Cailin, Deepwood Motte, the Stone Shore and Winterfell itself...the North remains a poor target and many factors ensured that Balon would never hold the North.

1) Even though Robb went south with 18,000 men, Martin himself confirmed that Robb's numbers were assembled and haste and that the rest were still gathering due to the North's vast size (supposedly as large as other kingdoms combined). According to semi-canon sources, the North's full strength is about 45 thousand, so subtract 18 from 45 and you get 27 thousand. That's more than enough to repulse the Ironborn whom are stronger closer to the sea than on the green lands and can only marshal 20,000. So holding Moat Cailin forever is no longer feasible since it's more vulnerable from the North and thus the Northerners could retake it and break Balon's stranglehold.

2) The North is too large for the Ironborn to properly control and occupy. It's a harsh and cold environment which most Ironborn would be unused to. Especially with Winter being just around the corner. I need only point out the disastrous invasions of Russia by Napoleon and Hitler as a point of reference. And thanks to Ironborn pillaging and raiding, the Ironborn would also be in danger of starving if not outright freezing to death and that's assuming that they survive the eventual counterattack from a very sizable Northern defense force.

3) The North is one of the poorest regions in the 7 Kingdoms. Anything worth taking is closer to the Kingsroad or in the East such as the silversmiths of White Harbor, but that would take the Ironborn too far away from their element.

These three principle reasons paint Balon as even more of an idiot. He chooses to assert his claim as king by invading a land that's too poor to be worth the effort; too large to ever control; and strong enough to fight off any occupational efforts once its remaining strength regathers. But this would be excusable if there were no other viable targets...

Oh wait, the Westerlands were ripe for the taking.

True, Martin confirms that the Westerlands had rebuilt their fleet, but what does that matter? Balon destroyed the Westerland fleet once and he could do it again and this time, Robert won't be able to save them because he's dead. The Westerlands can gather a total of 50,000, but that strength is spent with 11,000 lost; 20,000 trapped in the Riverlands and an unknown number at Oxcross (5,000 at least, I believe). So that leaves only 14,000 in the West to fight off the Ironborn. A decent risk. But the prize is obvious.

The Westerlands are a fertile land, but more importantly is that they are the richest land. The land is littered with mines filled with silver and gold. Most of its geographical defenses lie in the East with the West being flat and vulnerable to a navel attack. Perhaps Casterly Rock is too strong to take, but the true can't be for certain said of the rest of the Region. The mighty Tywin is also in the Riverlands caught on a war with three fronts against the Riverlands/North; Renly and Stannis with King's Landing hanging in the balance.

Best yet, he'd be attacking the Westerlands in an alliance with the North so he'd be on the winning side of a strong team up (3 realms vs 1).

Instead, Balon attacks the North for petty misguided revenge, pride and stupidity. He attacks a potential ally against a long list of eventual enemies for the sake of proving that "The Old Ways are awesome!" Though I'd point out that his sons were killed by Jason Mallister and Robert Baratheon...during the poorly time Rebellion that he instigated. If anything, it's his own fault that his sons were killed and Theon was made a ward/hostage of the North. But since Balon is a stubborn idiot, he throws all of the blame on the North instead of Robert's "son" Joffrey or Robert's father-in-law Tywin. This is made even hypocritical when Balon himself offers to form an alliance with the Iron Throne despite declaring himself an independent king.

I don't get it...one king offers him an alliance and he attacks him, but later tries to make an alliance with the Lannisters despite knowing how brutal and unforgiving they are to rebels? Which is exactly what Balon is at this point? A Rebel against the Iron Throne? Again?

So what else could Balon had done differently to not make him an idiot?

How about not antagonizing anyone for the moment until he sees whose going to win and who won't. Kind of like his "soft" father did years earlier. Instead, he isolates himself from any potential alliances and instead of going for the richer and technically more vulnerable target he assails a target that he'll never keep and will yield him little. Worst yet, he ends up losing his last remaining son because unlike dear old dad, Theon is actually smart and came up with the alliance idea.

So let's summarize:

Balon Greyjoy's greatest source of stupidity is his idealization of the Old Way of life for the Ironborn. His stubborn and prideful attempt at trying to raise himself up as the greatest champion of the Old Ways and to assert its dominance with poorly timed and thought-out campaigns that had initial success, but were doomed to fail.

The best that can be said about Balon is that he died (or Euron killed him) before he could make things worst for his people and give the Old Ways an even worst name. It's possible that Euron's plan to invade the Reach will turn-out to be an even dumber move than either of his Brother's campaigns. Maybe someone else will usurp Balon as the dumbest military commander in recent history. But for now, I say that Balon can keep his crown as the King of Failure.

Much of that remaining 25 K are old men and green boys. As for attacking the westerlands, it might of been easier until Robb's other dumb moves cost him the war and the Tyrells and Lannisters counter attack. Do u think Tywin would be anywhere as kind as Robert was? No he'd wipe out the greyjoys. 

[Sullen]

Just now, Lord_Ravenstone said:

1) one that Varys didn't take seriously seeing as he didn't leak it to Cersei

Or maybe he simply didn't want to betray Tyrion just yet.

Tyrion is no idiot, he would have not used Theon if he didn't think it was believable, it defeats the purpose of his whole scheme.

1 minute ago, Lord_Ravenstone said:

2) Balon is still married

Alanys is old and sickly, she could die at any moment, as Tywin pointed out,

2 minutes ago, Lord_Ravenstone said:

3) Mace is a proven idiot 

People overplay Mace's "stupidity." He's not an idiot, he's simply not extremely shrewd.

3 minutes ago, Lord_Ravenstone said:

Balon can't keep taking these hits to his rep

Asha losing two battles and being captured is enough to make her think the ironborn won't want to follow her anymore 

I highly doubt the Ironborn would see it as a hit to his rep if such gains are made.

Besides, Balon was completely crushed by the Iron Throne during his first rebellion, and with the exception of Blacktyde (who's barely Ironborn anymore) and the Reader (whose opinions are seen as fringe,) he's adored and idolized by his people. They're not going to turn against him after he gives them lands and keeps, as well as a victory over the Northmen. 

[thelittledragonthatcould]

37 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Well since you keep going there, let's talk about it. How many men do you believe Manderly has? We have seen about 2000 men from him thus far. How many do you think he has in total? Less than the Freys, who have shown around 5000 to date?

Probably around 4-5k.

37 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

How many men do you think Skagos has? We have seen none from them thus far. Less than 2000?

Yes. Around 500-1k outside of Skagos, though Guerilla warfare would make them far deadlier on Skagos.

37 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

 

How many men do you think the Dustins held back from Robb's host? She said she sent the minimum number possible.

The minimum she could get away but as many as it would take to please Robb as she was scared of the Starks.

37 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

 

The Mountain Clans seem to have held back at least 2000.

No they don't. This is a common misconception. They now have men to spare as it is Winter and there is no more harvests to bring in. Many of the 3k ish with Stannis are men sacrificing themselves for Winter. We only had to see how poor they fared against the fleeing Ironborn at Deepwood Motte.

This is where the line gets blurred between regular smallfolk and trained and moderately well armed smallfolk enlisted to fight.

37 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Martin's direct quote was that in the North the lords are more hesitant to beat their plowshares into swords, given the harshness of their Winters.

And yet the Umbers and Karstarks did just that, as did Robb. I would not be too surprised if other Lords were also shorthanded due to sending too many.

37 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

 

This was in direct support of his statement that the North does not gather its full strength as easily or as quickly as other regions.

Which is true. Robb took longer than Renly, Tywin and even Edmure to gather his army.

37 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

 

So since the Umbers and Kartstarks do not seem to have adhered to that hesitation, clearly he must have been referring to the other Northern lords.

How? Robb took longer to gather his army than Tywin did.

37 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

We know that the least of Robb's bannermen can raise more than 1000 men.

 His Lords, not the least of his bannermen.

37 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

 

And we know that many of them can raise significantly more. The Clans seem to have a strength in the order of 3000 men. The Karstarks have raised 2800 to date. Bolton seems to have in the region of 4000.

All possible.

37 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

 

Barrowton must be close to the Bolton strength.

Must be? I don't know about must be. But it is possible.

37 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

And the Manderlys significantly higher than both.

 Not that we have seen. A significantly higher army would have dealt with the Boltons pretty easily in the Hornwood battle, especially as it appears Roose sent more with Robb than Wyman did.

37 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Add it all up. 35k is a minimum strength for the North. Without Skagos.

I'd say 30k is the minimum given that is what Torrhen Stark raised after plenty of time and the biggest threat in Westeros history.

37 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

 

In fact, it is very difficult to get to a strength below 40k altogether.

Not based on what the 5 books published or the world book.

37 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

 

For example, conservatively, if you go from North to South and give the Mormonts and Flint's of Flints finger the absolute minimum which is 1000:

Mormont - 1000 (Minimum northern bannerman strength based on Jeor's quote)

Mountain Clans - 3000 (Of which between 2000 and 2500 went with Stannis, and the rest with Robb or else stayed as the personal guards of the Clan Chiefs)

Karstark - 2800 (Depicted to date)

Umber - 2500 (Of which maybe 800 are split between Crowfood and Whoresbane)

Bolton - 4000

All fair, though there is some blurring of the lines between actual capable soldiers and old men and young boys forced to fight now that it is winter.

And we only know of 400 with one of the Umber uncles, we don't know how many are with the other. But again, they are grey beards and green boys. I don't really count them as real soldiers just like I don't really count the Green boys of Lannisport as real soldiers. This is shown at how easily they are dealt with by real soldiers.

37 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Hornwood - 2000

Come on. Less than that.

37 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Widows Watch Flints - 2000

Likely less.

37 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Locke - 1000 (Minimum northern bannerman strength based on Jeor's quote)

 Possibly more. Decent location and there have been two Locke's married to Lord Starks in the past 200ish years.

37 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Manderly - 6000

less 4-5k

37 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Stark - 3000

more. Probably 5k when you include their two Masterly Houses

37 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Cerwyn - 1000 (Minimum northern bannerman strength based on Jeor's quote)

Sure

37 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Dustin - 3000

Ryswell - 2000

Not that we know of. Maybe 4k.

37 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Tallhart - 1500

Glover - 1500

Not Lordly Houses, but Masterly Houses. I include their numbers with the Starks, we are not too far off their combined numbers.

37 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Reed - 1500

Outside of the Neck? Nope.

37 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Flint of Flints Finger - 1000 (Minimum northern bannerman strength based on Jeor's quote

Sure.

37 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

That is pretty much as conservative an allocation as one can make, given what we know of the North, numbers listed to date, and supporting information from the books and Martin's quotes. And that already takes us to 40k men. And I see I forgot Skagos on that list. Which conservatively can be given 2000 men, if the smaller Bear Island has 1000, and that 1000 on the colder side of the continent to boot.

It is very difficult to argue for a significantly lower number than 40k for the North.

That is not 40k. It takes an awful lot of rounding up to get it to 40k.