US Election: To NY and Beyond

[Kalbear]

15 minutes ago, DireWolfSpirit said:

Gotta goto work but I believe my response to RBPL addresses my logic. It simply gives equal weighting to votes rejecting whats on the ballot. I think it would be useful for crushing the 2 party monopoly and I like the idea of that. G2G.

Nope, still makes zero sense. You think that what we have now is more legitimate than what we would have if everyone voted. This doesn't make sense at all, and never will, because math doesn't care about what tortured logic you're using.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

5 minutes ago, Kalbear said:

I'm talking about when, not what total she needs. I suspect that if tonight looks as good as the demos expect it to that she might be able to clinch the nomination before California votes.

She needs 57% of the delegates between now and June 6th to win the nomination. 

[Kalbear]

5 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

She needs 57% of the delegates between now and June 6th to win the nomination. 

Yeah, just figured it out. At the current rate she's at she'll be at 90 delegates short right before CA. If she somehow wins every single superdelegate between now and the CA primary, however, she'd have 17 more than she needs to clinch. So her not even needing California is still in play, reasonably. 

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

26 minutes ago, Kalbear said:

Yeah, just figured it out. At the current rate she's at she'll be at 90 delegates short right before CA. If she somehow wins every single superdelegate between now and the CA primary, however, she'd have 17 more than she needs to clinch. So her not even needing California is still in play, reasonably. 

Actually there is another way. Right now there are roughly 155 super delegates that have yet to back a candidate. Clinton has the support of 93% of the super delegates that have announced who they're supporting. So if we use that ratio, and give Clinton 144 super delegates, she only needs about 40% of the delegates between now and June 6th to lock it up, and it's not unreasonable to think that could happen.

[Jace, Extat]

Saw on Yahoo that Trump is polling about 50% among republicans for the first time.

[Kalbear]

Trump has won all 5 states; it's unclear how big the wins will be but so far it looks huge.

Clinton has won MD, DE and PA. Leads slightly in CT and is well behind in Rhode Island. Demo numbers almost perfectly aligned for these results so far.

[TrackerNeil]

4 minutes ago, Kalbear said:

Trump has won all 5 states; it's unclear how big the wins will be but so far it looks huge.

Clinton has won MD, DE and PA. Leads slightly in CT and is well behind in Rhode Island. Demo numbers almost perfectly aligned for these results so far.

If any other candidate were doing as well as Trump to date, we'd be calling him the presumptive nominee. If Rubio were in Trump's place, you'd better believe there wouldn't be calls for a contested convention.

[Kalbear]

Clinton called as winner in CT as well. As stated elsewhere only the open primary and good demos let Sanders win in Rhode Island. 

This also nets Clinton about 50 more delegates and makes it so that Sanders must win the remaining contests 65-35 or better.

[Altherion]

Trump was expected to do well, but it is surprising to see him get victories that are even larger than in his home state of NY. Cruz and Kasich got practically nothing out of these five states and this would be true even if they could collaborate to the extent of strategically handing each other the entirety of their votes in certain districts (Trump won more than 50% of the vote practically everywhere). The only thing that saves Cruz and Kasich from ending the night with no bound delegates at all is that Rhode Island allocates all delegates proportionally so despite Trump's massive victory there, Kasich managed to snatch a few (it's not clear whether Cruz is above the minimum threshold).

Clinton basically performed as expected which is bad news for Sanders. There's not much hope for him now barring an extraordinary event (this isn't news though -- it was true after NY and it's still true now).

[The Anti-Targ]

This was almost a deathblow for Sanders. He won the second smallest state of the day which is pretty much inconsequential. The road to 2383 for him from here is long and hard.

Seems like Trump might be on course to actually get to 1237 despite Cruz and Kasich teaming up.

[Squab]

I figure the republicans are all holding out for the convention in the hope Trump doesn't get to 1237.

When will Sanders pull out, concede defeat or whatever it is you guys call it?

[Kalbear]

18 minutes ago, Squab said:

I figure the republicans are all holding out for the convention in the hope Trump doesn't get to 1237.

When will Sanders pull out, concede defeat or whatever it is you guys call it?

It's looking like he won't, at all. Typically candidates do so when it's clear that they won't get the funding, but Sanders is getting even more funding despite it looking more and more like he's a huge loser. So there's no reason for him to get out other than it being the right thing to do. 

Which is becoming more and more clear that he is uninterested in doing.

[Kalbear]

And after tonight's results - which were again within 2-3 points of the demographic base targets - Sanders now needs +18 over demo in the remaining states in order to win. 

This would mean the following:

• IN Sanders +30 (currently Clinton +6) - open primary
• WV Sanders +44 (currently Sanders +8) - semiclosed primary
• KY Sanders +26 (currently Clinton+10) - closed primary
• OR Sanders +46 (currently Sanders +10) -closed primary
• CA Sanders +28 (currently Clinton +8) open primary
• MT Sanders +46 (currently Sanders +8) - open primary
• NJ Sanders +26 (currently Clinton+10) - closed primary
• ND Sanders +52 (currently Sanders +16) -open primary
• NM Sanders +30 (currently Clinton +6) - closed primary
• SD Sanders +26 (currently Clinton +10) -semiopen primary
• DC Sanders +8 (currently Clinton +28) - closed primary

In addition, assuming the large majority of superdelegates go to Clinton, she can clinch with pledged delegates + pledged superdelegates (similar to what Obama did) after the Oregon primary on May 17th. 

[Stan the Man Baratheon]

Trump sweeped all counties as well not just the states. A truly formidable candidate. 

Trump vs Clinton. Its lit

[lokisnow]

At this point, with two thirds of the delegates allocated, huffing ton post delegate tracker has Cruz with 1 (!) delegate for the night. And most of the unaccounted for are Pennsylvania's weird delegates. wow.

 

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/2016/primaries/2016-04-26

After tonight, sanders is now three million votes behind Clinton I doubt there are three million votes left to be cast in the remaining states, so even if he won 100% going forward he'd probably still lose the popular vote.

 

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016_democratic_nomination_map.html

 

 

[Stan the Man Baratheon]

I personally think Sanders should run as an independent. If he truly wants the revolution. Otherwise he was just lying through his teeth regarding getting a revolution.

[lokisnow]

My bad, 4.8 million democrats voted in the meaningless ca primary in 2008, so there are definitely more than 3 million votes left outstanding. Still, sanders is probably realistically eliminated from winning the popular vote at this point.

[Shryke]

4 minutes ago, Stan the Man Baratheon said:

I personally think Sanders should run as an independent. If he truly wants the revolution. Otherwise he was just lying through his teeth regarding getting a revolution.

Or he's not stupid and doesn't want to help Trump win.

 

21 minutes ago, Stan the Man Baratheon said:

Trump sweeped all counties as well not just the states. A truly formidable candidate. 

 Have you seen his popularity numbers?

[Stan the Man Baratheon]

1 minute ago, Shryke said:

Or he's not stupid and doesn't want to help Trump win.

To be stupid or a liar that is the question, for the Sanders campaign.

Extremely happy that America rejected """""Democratic Socialism"""".

2 minutes ago, Shryke said:

 Have you seen his popularity numbers?

Those numbers mean nothing right now. Its still primary season. 

Trump hasn't even started his onslaught on Clinton.

He buried Jeb, Rubio, Kasich, Cruz and 16 others, i am sure Clinton wouldn't be a hard picking.

[ThinkerX]

I figure Trump is one major Islamic terrorist attack away from the presidency.

And Sanders should stay in, because that FBI investigation is still looming over Clinton.  Should something happen there (unlikely, but possible), well, there goes the Clinton Coronation. At that point, if the DNC is relatively sane, they'll hand the reigns over to Bernie.