How do some people honestly think Ramsay wrote the pink letter?

[Nevets]

22 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

Why would Stannis entrust Theon with writing a letter to Jon Snow? Answer: see above + learning that Theon didn't kill the Stark boys.

I looked above and didn't see an answer.  

It can't be because he would know what Ramsay's writing style is like.  Castle Black likely isn't familiar with his style, Theon probably wouldn't know either, and Stannis would have no way to know if Theon was even carrying out his instructions.

If it was sent from another location, why didn't Stannis entrust the message with someone he trusts - such as Richard Horpe or Clayton Suggs?  "When you find a raven, send this message as is to CB, and don't tell Theon!"  

If you are really sending a message in code, you want it sent exactly as you wrote, otherwise the code could get lost.

22 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

Theon is like Gandalf's "burglar". He knows the easy way in and out of the Dreadfort and steal the Dreadfort right from under Roose's nose while Roose sits in WF. Imo, George handed Theon to Stannis who also has Asha for plot reasons, not to kill him off.

What easy way in and out?  I doubt Ramsay showed him any routes that aren't heavily guarded under normal conditions.  As for sneaking in pretending to be someone else?  This is the Dreadfort.  Roose Bolton's lair,  The Bolton's are very familiar with false flag attacks, having used them twice (Winterfell and Harrenhal)  Heck, I expect some of the men who took Winterfell are still at the Dreadfort.  No way are they going to fall for that.  

They are going to need to see large numbers of men they recognize.  If not, at the very least, they will disarm whoever comes and keep them under guard until they can get things sorted out.  Bolton men aren't the trusting type.  Also, the castle likely has a decent garrison remaining, as Roose was planning to use it as a trap for Stannis.

10 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

George actually has confirmed that we'll see the Land of Always Winter. That necessitates a POV showing it do us. Since Bran cannot possibly physically travel there the only other option would be to see it through the eyes of some animal Bran controls.

I actually think we will see it through the POV of Davos.  I can think of several ways this could happen.  He could get blown there by a storm, he could get driven there by the "dead things in the water", or he could go at the behest of Benjen Stark (rescue, spying, negotiation, etc.).  Given that he will be in the neighborhood, it makes sense.  A simple out and back for Rickon seems unlikely, given GRRM's writing style.

[Lord Varys]

7 minutes ago, Nevets said:

I actually think we will see it through the POV of Davos.  I can think of several ways this could happen.  He could get blown there by a storm, he could get driven there by the "dead things in the water", or he could go at the behest of Benjen Stark (rescue, spying, negotiation, etc.).  Given that he will be in the neighborhood, it makes sense.  A simple out and back for Rickon seems unlikely, given GRRM's writing style.

Davos is no way near the Land of Always Winter and he has no means to reach more than the coast of that if we assume for a moment he would have been driven off this far north. Skagos is pretty close to Eastwatch so one really should assume that he'll make it to that castle should he find Rickon on the island and be allowed to leave.

[Nevets]

20 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Davos is no way near the Land of Always Winter and he has no means to reach more than the coast of that if we assume for a moment he would have been driven off this far north. Skagos is pretty close to Eastwatch so one really should assume that he'll make it to that castle should he find Rickon on the island and be allowed to leave.

Given that we last saw him halfway through ADWD, I would anticipate he will arrive in the Eastwatch/Skagos area right around the time of the Hardhome evacuation.  He could easily get caught up in that, either before or after he is able to retrieve Rickon, and then be forced to make his way north.  As for not getting past the coast, that is still the Land of Always Winter.  .

[sweetsunray]

7 hours ago, Nevets said:

I looked above and didn't see an answer.  

It can't be because he would know what Ramsay's writing style is like.  Castle Black likely isn't familiar with his style, Theon probably wouldn't know either, and Stannis would have no way to know if Theon was even carrying out his instructions.

If it was sent from another location, why didn't Stannis entrust the message with someone he trusts - such as Richard Horpe or Clayton Suggs?  "When you find a raven, send this message as is to CB, and don't tell Theon!"  

If you are really sending a message in code, you want it sent exactly as you wrote, otherwise the code could get lost.

What easy way in and out?  I doubt Ramsay showed him any routes that aren't heavily guarded under normal conditions.  As for sneaking in pretending to be someone else?  This is the Dreadfort.  Roose Bolton's lair,  The Bolton's are very familiar with false flag attacks, having used them twice (Winterfell and Harrenhal)  Heck, I expect some of the men who took Winterfell are still at the Dreadfort.  No way are they going to fall for that.  

They are going to need to see large numbers of men they recognize.  If not, at the very least, they will disarm whoever comes and keep them under guard until they can get things sorted out.  Bolton men aren't the trusting type.  Also, the castle likely has a decent garrison remaining, as Roose was planning to use it as a trap for Stannis.

I actually think we will see it through the POV of Davos.  I can think of several ways this could happen.  He could get blown there by a storm, he could get driven there by the "dead things in the water", or he could go at the behest of Benjen Stark (rescue, spying, negotiation, etc.).  Given that he will be in the neighborhood, it makes sense.  A simple out and back for Rickon seems unlikely, given GRRM's writing style.

You are correct Nevets that the issue is not fully answered:

- "see answer above" was a reference to Theon being under heavily guard

But I think your issue is "why specifically Theon and not someone else", correct? There are two different answers for it.

1. Maybe Stannis did not even entrust it on Theon, but indeed on someone he trusted more. And maybe it wasn't even meant to be written in Ramsay's name, but Roose's (Tybald) or Arnolf's. And maybe Theon suggested "wouldn't it be better if it seems to be a letter from Ramsay? I know Ramsay. I was his pet for over a year. I know hiw style [or so Theon believes]." Theon managed to convince Dagmar into a plan to take WF, which was not Balon's orders. Theon managed to not have his uncle Damphair watching over him all the time.

2. Or Stannis himself realized, once he decides to make use of Theon, that is the best man around to impersonate Ramsay, or so he thinks. 

The "burglar": Theon's escape from the Dreadfort through the door with Kyra.

The Dreadfort men: From afar at least Theon looks like Arnolf. They know Tybald. He's a maester of the Dreadfort. Of course Stannis's men are not going to pretend to be Dreadfort men, but Karstark men-at-arms and Umbers. Remember that the Dreadfort garrison wouldn't know whether it are greybeards and greenboys with Roose. They would also know that at least one of the Umbers is with Roose, and assume that the other Umber betrayed Stannis, just as the Karstarks intended to do. And even though they'd recognize Theon up close, he can still say that Ramsay sent them. They wouldn't know he escaped. They know Theon to be Reek, Ramsay's pet who asks his fingers to be taken, who does anything Ramsay wants him to do. They know he had the IB (his own countrymen) surrender Moat Cailin to Ramsay.

=> So a feign can be used to let a small party in of Reek and Tybald with a Karstark and Umber escort. And then Theon opens the door through which he escaped with Kyra and everybody else gets in. Umber greenboys are 400. Add a hundred or two hundred of Stannis's men dressed as Freys and Karstarks. And why would that garrison recognize Frey and Karstark soldiers?

Sizable garrison: Roose's and Arnolf's plan only required a minimal garrison to hold the battlements of the keep, long enough, for Stannis to be routed by Karstark men ordered to betray Stannis within his ranks by Arnolf and attacked in the rear by Ramsay's 600. Besides, Roose changed his plans and wanted to get Stannis to attack WF, while Stannis was in Deepwood Motte (about the farthest you can be from the Dreadfort, except Barrowton and Rysswels). If Ramsay has his 600, and Roose has his +3000 to battle Stannis at WF, then the garrison at the Dreadfort numbers at the most between 100-200 men 

I think you misunderstand the "false flag attack" I mentioned in relation to the Dreadfort. Of course an actual attack on the Dreadfort wouldn't work. But it can be taken with a feign. Getting a few people in which the garrison believes to be on Roose's side - Mors, Tybald and Reek would serve well in this. And it wouldn't be strange that they don't see a familiar face with the escort of say 100 men. Put several of them in a Frey attire and claim Suggs is Hosteen Frey and how would the Bolton men know. They never saw the man. Then they bring in the rest of their numbers through the door, and then it's a piece of cake. The "false flag attack" is in relation to Roose afterwards, when a letter is sent to Winterfell that the Dreadfort was taken by Ironborn or wildlings.

[LordManderlyAsDragonRider]

The pink letter is such a puzzle, I think I have switched between believing it was different authors about 5 times.

Is there any way it could be Clydas? Im not sure if there is any way he could know about Reek? But I do like the idea that the whole letter is false, and that Clydas wrote it to make Jon react, giving Marsh&co a more valid reason for attackting Jon. It does seem like the attack was planned to happen right after Jon read the letter to the wildlings.

If not Clydas, I'm leaning toward a Lady Dustin/Mance/Big Walder conspiracy, but it is not a very welformed theory..

 

 

[sweetsunray]

44 minutes ago, LordManderlyAsDragonRider said:

The pink letter is such a puzzle, I think I have switched between believing it was different authors about 5 times.

Is there any way it could be Clydas? Im not sure if there is any way he could know about Reek? But I do like the idea that the whole letter is false, and that Clydas wrote it to make Jon react, giving Marsh&co a more valid reason for attackting Jon. It does seem like the attack was planned to happen right after Jon read the letter to the wildlings.

If not Clydas, I'm leaning toward a Lady Dustin/Mance/Big Walder conspiracy, but it is not a very welformed theory..

 

 

Well, Thorne loves the word whore and bastard and he may be hiding out someplace else. Marsh & co certainly want the wildlings and Stannis's retinue gone. The pink wax could have been pilched from Ramsay's previous letter to CB, and I can see them cook up some "big words, big insulting, big claims Ramsay personna" and being not too bothered with writing in blood and flayed skin attacked to a letter. So, stylishly it could certainly work. But there's no way they know about Mance Rayder switcheroo, about sending him to WF to rescue the bride, and they certainly wouldn't know who or what Reek is.

There are clues in the books in Theon's chapter while riding out to Barrowhall that a singer is present in Barrowton. And Lady Dustin's words to Theon especially int he crypt scene certainly makes me consider it is believable that she's working with Mance and others to get her revenge, on Ramsay and Starks. But there are plenty of scenario issues imo to make it work. 

ETA: I think George can show us and mess with the reader in just 4 chapters

1. Theon's first chapter: imminent attack and making reader believe that Stannis will kill Theon

2. Asha's first chapter: sees "Arnolf Karstark" being sent off with "Karstarks", her "brother" sacrificed and the Battle of Ice that Stannis wins. Reader's reaction: WTF, what about that letter?

3. Ashsa's second chapter: Stannis takes or has taken a lowly garissoned WF. Reader reaction: WTF where are the armies? WTF happened with Ramsay and Roose, etc? We're informed that armies left to defend their keeps after news reached WF they were attacked, taken, or burned by Ironborn and wildlings.

4. Theon's second chapter: from within the Dreadfort, hearing the news that Roose is coming to take his keep back, Theon's memory on how he took it and reminiscing the letter. He watches as Roose gets to the walls and is then taken in the rear by Stannis's army. (Asha would still be at WF is my guess)

[Lord Varys]

@Free Northman Reborn

Actually, Jon could have become Robb's successor simply because Robb was apparently preparing a deal with the NW to get Jon out of the NW. He mentioned something like offer them many men in return for releasing Jon from his vows. And he doesn't have to be Lord Commander in this scenario, either, because Robb's will could have arrived at the Wall long before the election of a new Lord Commander. In fact, if some Northern Lords had brought men to defend the Wall and went happily along with that wildlings deal/peace then there would have been no need for Stannis at all.

It is you who asserts again and again that the North still has a lot of men - but where the hell were those men when Maester Aemon wrote his letters asking for help to defend the Wall? How is it possible that no Northman came but Stannis Baratheon had time to get his fleet from Dragonstone to Eastwatch?

I'm actually not sure what's the important point about 'the Bolton threat'. That is all just a plot device to weaken the North even further, is it not? I mean - anyone who has understood the real threat (and both Stannis and Jon pretend they do) and is willing to make a deal with the wildlings should also try to come to an agreement with Roose regardless whom he betrayed and murdered. The Boltons could just as well help the NW defending the Wall.

If you need proof that Jon Snow snapped and essentially betrayed everything he stood for and tried to accomplish throughout ADwD when he decided to march against Winterfell and unleash his wildlings against his fellow Northmen (i.e. the Boltons) you just have to compare that situation to Jon Snow's aloof position regarding the Weeper. He is willing to give that man a free pass regardless of the crimes he committed against many Northmen and Watchmen yet it apparently never even crosses his mind to try to make a truce with either Roose or Ramsay. Ramsay is a piece of shit, of course, but I'm not sure whether he is worse than the Weeper.

In my opinion, Jon Snow's effort to make alliances against the Others were only half-hearted and came to late. The idea that they will survive his death is not very likely. And there are things that cannot be repaired once they are broken. Apparently Jon wasn't willing to forgive or ignore Roose's betrayal and murder of Robb or Ramsay marrying/mistreating/raping Arya. The same easily could go for whatever is going to happen between Bowen Marsh's people and (some of) the wildlings in the wake of the assassination. The idea that a resurrected Jon Snow will be able to pull all of that back together would be a very irritating and unrealistic plot. I just don't see something like that gestate out of the mess people are in right now. It feels like fan fiction and not like something that grows naturally out of the story as it has been presented so far. Yes, if Jon hadn't been murdered and if he had marched something like your scenario could have happened. But that didn't happen. And just assuming he can continue with that after he returns from the dead just doesn't make any sense.

And neither does the idea that he'll go on some spirit journey and gains secret knowledge/powers while he is dead. He'll most likely be stuck in Ghost for the time being, that's it. While I think his resurrection might change his body somewhat there is no reason to believe that this will change anything about the belief of his overall role. If Melisandre or anyone would begin the suspect anything about his true heritage and stuff one should assume this would have been prepared during ADwD in some fashion. And you should keep in mind that Jon Snow having Targaryen blood is more likely to cause Melisandre to see him as a potential sacrifice than her changing her mind on who Azor Ahai is. She is pretty much set on that and I'd actually be very surprised if she would be able to see anyone but Stannis as the savior. If Stannis should truly die at one point she is more likely to despair and join the cause of the Great Other (or think he has already won) than thinking that she herself was wrong all that time.

Not to mention that Jon Snow is in no way favored by those parts of the prophecy that talk about a comet/bleeding star or the place of salt and smoke. But Stannis was, apparently, and him being on Dragonstone was a major point for Melisandre. Jon Snow wasn't on Dragonstone throughout his entire life. And neither has a comet heralded his birth or rebirth. The only comet that has featured in the series as of yet was the red one, and that one heralded the return of the dragons.

If turn the focus on Stannis and his role as a false savior Jon's murder might actually mark the beginning of the end of the NW, and Jon might actually find himself in a position like Daenerys when she hatched the dragons - without any friends or allies, and everything he has worked for destroyed. That way Stannis would be the guy around whom the Northmen/surviving wildlings will gather, and that's then not going to work out so well. After all, prophecy really suggests that Stannis is going to be seen as a false savior and is going to make things worse instead of better and that Dany will have to deal with both him and Aegon in some fashion. If George planned to not connect the Aegon and Stannis plots to Dany then there would have been little reason to include them in the House of the Undying rather than, say, Balon, Euron, or Joffrey/Tommen/Myrcella.

He can still become a savior and hero guy, of course, but I'd expect that this is going to happen later in the series.

The idea that the news about Jon Snow's death won't spread makes no sense. Marsh will spread them. The first thing he'll do after the murder is sent a raven to Winterfell (in answer to the Pink Letter) and KL to announce that the traitorous bastard Lord Commander is dead and the Iron Throne and Winterfell have now no reason to consider the Night's Watch an enemy of the Realm.

[LordManderlyAsDragonRider]

47 minutes ago, sweetsunray said:

Well, Thorne loves the word whore and bastard and he may be hiding out someplace else. Marsh & co certainly want the wildlings and Stannis's retinue gone. The pink wax could have been pilched from Ramsay's previous letter to CB, and I can see them cook up some "big words, big insulting, big claims Ramsay personna" and being not too bothered with writing in blood and flayed skin attacked to a letter. So, stylishly it could certainly work. But there's no way they know about Mance Rayder switcheroo, about sending him to WF to rescue the bride, and they certainly wouldn't know who or what Reek is.

There are clues in the books in Theon's chapter while riding out to Barrowhall that a singer is present in Barrowton. And Lady Dustin's words to Theon especially int he crypt scene certainly makes me consider it is believable that she's working with Mance and others to get her revenge, on Ramsay and Starks. But there are plenty of scenario issues imo to make it work. 

ETA: I think George can show us and mess with the reader in just 4 chapters

1. Theon's first chapter: imminent attack and making reader believe that Stannis will kill Theon

2. Asha's first chapter: sees "Arnolf Karstark" being sent off with "Karstarks", her "brother" sacrificed and the Battle of Ice that Stannis wins. Reader's reaction: WTF, what about that letter?

3. Ashsa's second chapter: Stannis takes or has taken a lowly garissoned WF. Reader reaction: WTF where are the armies? WTF happened with Ramsay and Roose, etc? We're informed that armies left to defend their keeps after news reached WF they were attacked, taken, or burned by Ironborn and wildlings.

4. Theon's second chapter: from within the Dreadfort, hearing the news that Roose is coming to take his keep back, Theon's memory on how he took it and reminiscing the letter. He watches as Roose gets to the walls and is then taken in the rear by Stannis's army. (Asha would still be at WF is my guess)

You are completely right about Clydas and Marsh now having any way of knowing about Reek, or fArya's escape. 

But i have always felt that motive is the biggest problem to establish when dealing with the Pink Letter, and Marsh&co would have a perfect motive for the letter.

 

I really struggle to see Reek as the author, his mental state and him being a captive of Stannis seems to go against it. And again motive? 

 

So I'll have to put some more thought into my Lady Dustin/Mance theory, it is presently the only one making any sense to me..and even that is very little sense:)

[sweetsunray]

16 minutes ago, LordManderlyAsDragonRider said:

I really struggle to see Reek as the author, his mental state and him being a captive of Stannis seems to go against it. And again motive?

The Reek mentioning is already suggestive of a possible unstable mind behind the letter.

Motive? You mean to antanognize Jon? Protecting the "bride"+envy. Remember that Theon thought he could fast become an LC if he took the black when Luwin suggested it in aCoK. Theon didn't take the black and was Reekified, while Jon became LC. Theon and Jon have a mutual great dislike for each other. And of course, if the bride arrives at CB, then Jon would expose her as Jeyne Poole. Then she'd be nothing more than a "whore" (in Theon's words), and Theon believes that would downgrade his heroism in the eyes of others. Theon helping Stannis would be his chance to gain his freedom and return to the Iron Islands. He can't allow Jon he never cared for ruin that. Nor does Theon have any idea what the mess is north of the wall.

[Nevets]

On 4/28/2016 at 5:38 PM, sweetsunray said:

RAMSAY

1 - One starts by checking whether the details of the Pink Letter fit with that of other confirmed Ramsay letters. Once you do, you run into several style issues. Those issues are:

• No mentioning of Ramsay's spikey handwriting while mentioning it twice before (see wedding invitation sent to Jon Snow, and letter sent to Asha)
• No mention of flaking and no brown colored ink (blood), despite the fact that Jon flattens the parchment of the Pink Letter before him. And it has been mentioned twice before (see wedding invitation sent to Jon Snow and Asha). Note also that Ramsay's red stallion is called Blood. Ramsay has a morbid fascination for blood.
• No mentioning of signatures at the bottom of the letter by any of the allies such as Dustin, Umber, Cerwyn, Ryswells, while mentioned twice before (see letter to Asha, and wedding invitiation to Jon)
• No skin attached to this taunt letter, despite the claim of having the hides of the spearwives (see letter to Asha)
• The use of "whore" or "whores, while Ramsay never uses this word on-page (see start-off comment). Not only that, Ramsay takes particular care to name women by their name, and even honors his female victims' by naming his hunting dogs after them. People have to "know and remember their name". People are known and remembered by their name.
• In continuation of the previous of all the characters mentioned in the letter only 2 are actually named - Mance Rayder and Reek. Everybody else simply is referred to with epithets.
• Pink wax blob without a seal's stamp

These are just seven style issues alone, and then we're not even talking about the content issues.

2- The content issues:

• The claim of a 7 day battle
• Heads mounted on the wall, instead of bodies flayed on a cross
• Mance with a cloak of skin of the washerwomen: while it is part of legends about the Boltons, we never actually see Ramsay do this - that is he does flay people and peel skin off, but having cloaks made out of skin, not really - and Roose tells Ramsay that human skin is of lower quality. It is an expression: "What man?" Ramsay demanded. "Give me his name. Point him out to me, boy, and I will make you a cloak of his skin."
• Knowing who is at Castle Black: the queen, the daughter, the red priestess, the "wildling princess", the "little prince"/wildling babe
• And despite the above not knowing Theon is not there and calling him Reek.

At the very least George included enough elements in the letter to provide fundamental doubt that Ramsay is the writer and author of the letter.

3 - Tangential issues:

• Mel expects a letter to come and urges Jon to come ot her with it as soon as he gets it first. And yet she does not seem to despair about the words, nor has she seen anything in the flames regarding Stannis. Therefore she expected a letter not because of visions, but because someone told her they would send news around so and so moon.

I will attempt to deal with what appear to be the most serious issues;

No spiky writing, not in blood - The only letter we have seen that was in spiky handwriting or in blood was the one to Asha.  "I am writing this in the blood of iron born", etc.  "I sent you a piece of prince.  Stay, and share his fate."  This is intended to frighten and intimidate the IB into leaving.

On 4/28/2016 at 5:38 PM, sweetsunray said:

remember that he sent self written letters to all the leal lords with blood for ink, Ironborn blood, and Theon skin with each letter (not just Asha's).

Not so far as we know he didn't.  There is no mention of this in the letter to CB.  The only blood mentioned is in Ramsay's signature.  When he reads the message, it begins with "Moat Cailin is taken."  Nothing about blood or skin.  Also, there would have been no reason to do so.  With everyone except the IB, he is sending out a combination news bulletin and wedding invitation.  No intimidation involved.  (At least openly)

No signatures - There may be info in the letter he doesn't want them to know about, especially the fact that "Arya" is gone.  That significantly hurts his position and he will want to keep that a secret as long as he can.  He might also want to keep Mance Rayder's presence a secret as well, especially if he isn't really wearing a cloak of skin. 

Use of the word "whore" - It is true he has yet to use that particular word.  It doesn't mean it isn't in his vocabulary.  Mel is widely perceived as Stannis's concubine, and the spearwives were masquerading as "washerwomen" (a polite term for ... whore). He doesn't refer to ordinary women as "whores".  But that doesn't mean that he doesn't call real or perceived whores as, well, "whores".  Especially if he is trying to be offensive and provocative.

Knowledge of who is at Castle Black - He could have gotten this information out of Mance or one of the spearwives.  Any survivors have surely been sharply questioned.  They would likely know who is there.

I've seen nothing so far that convinces me that Ramsay could not have sent the Pink letter.  He clearly has adequate motive to do so.  If it is written in a hurry, it might not include blood, which is probably a pain to write an entire letter in, anyways.  Any information could have come from captives.  And I fail to see what advantage any other character gets out of that particular letter.  While Stannis could have sent a letter, it would have been less inflammatory, especially if he was hoping for Jon to give it to Mel.  So far, Ii am going to go with Ramsay as the author.

 

[sweetsunray]

15 minutes ago, Nevets said:

The only letter we have seen that was in spiky handwriting or in blood was the one to Asha.  "I am writing this in the blood of iron born", etc.  "I sent you a piece of prince.  Stay, and share his fate."  This is intended to frighten and intimidate the IB into leaving.

Not true: Jon's letter to inform him on the fall of Moat Cailin and Ramsay's wedding ALSO has spiky handwriting and brown ink that flakes off (hence it's blood). Since it's not a threat to Jon this confirms Ramsay's claim he does this in all the letters to leal lords.

"Ramsay Bolton, Lord of the Hornwood, it read, in a huge, spiky hand. The brown ink came away in flakes when Jon brushed it with his thumb. Beneath Bolton's signature, Lord Dustin, Lady Cerwyn, and four Ryswells had appended their own marks and seals. A cruder hand had drawn the giant of House Umber. (aDwD, Jon IV)

17 minutes ago, Nevets said:

There may be info in the letter he doesn't want them to know about, especially the fact that "Arya" is gone.  That significantly hurts his position and he will want to keep that a secret as long as he can.  He might also want to keep Mance Rayder's presence a secret as well, especially if he isn't really wearing a cloak of skin.

There's no way he'll be able to keep it a secret that his bride is gone, the two dead spearwives and people knowing they were part of the singer's party. There are just too many people in that castle.

 

18 minutes ago, Nevets said:

Use of the word "whore" - It is true he has yet to use that particular word.  It doesn't mean it isn't in his vocabulary.  Mel is widely perceived as Stannis's concubine, and the spearwives were masquerading as "washerwomen" (a polite term for ... whore). He doesn't refer to ordinary women as "whores".  But that doesn't mean that he doesn't call real or perceived whores as, well, "whores".  Especially if he is trying to be offensive and provocative.

I refer again to George not doing off-page characterization.

19 minutes ago, Nevets said:

Knowledge of who is at Castle Black - He could have gotten this information out of Mance or one of the spearwives.  Any survivors have surely been sharply questioned.  They would likely know who is there.

And Mance wouldn't call Val the "wildling princess", and if Ramsay has Mance and the spearwives he has ample blood and skin to attach to a threat letter to Jon. Since there's no blood writing and no skin: Ramsay doesn't have Mance and living spearwives to tell him about who's at CB. He only has 2 dead spearwives. Again he doesn't even use their blood and skin to send with the letter.

It ain't Ramsay who wrote it.

[Clegane'sPup]

On 4/29/2016 at 0:16 AM, sweetsunray said:

I agree that if Ramsay and his men caught a shieldmaiden alive there would be torture/flaying/etc and that shieldmaiden would talk.

Forgive my forgetfulness but I think Martin named the Mance's women helpers spearwives.

[Clegane'sPup]

12 hours ago, LordManderlyAsDragonRider said:

The pink letter is such a puzzle, I think I have switched between believing it was different authors about 5 times.

<snip>
 

I agree with you. The letter is one of the things that I am looking forward to being explained in WoW.  I'm even starting to think that Whoresbane is involved.

[LordManderlyAsDragonRider]

20 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

The Reek mentioning is already suggestive of a possible unstable mind behind the letter.

Motive? You mean to antanognize Jon? Protecting the "bride"+envy. Remember that Theon thought he could fast become an LC if he took the black when Luwin suggested it in aCoK. Theon didn't take the black and was Reekified, while Jon became LC. Theon and Jon have a mutual great dislike for each other. And of course, if the bride arrives at CB, then Jon would expose her as Jeyne Poole. Then she'd be nothing more than a "whore" (in Theon's words), and Theon believes that would downgrade his heroism in the eyes of others. Theon helping Stannis would be his chance to gain his freedom and return to the Iron Islands. He can't allow Jon he never cared for ruin that. Nor does Theon have any idea what the mess is north of the wall.

I have never read it as there being some great dislike between Theon and Jon. Clearly Jon doesn't like Theon, but does Theon even think about Jon? I don't see there being a great enough dislike for Theon to hold a grudge because he for 5 minutes thought about joining The Watch. And would he really think that Jon who also grew up around Jeyne Pool would really mistreat her?

As for getting help for Stannis, Theon knows how far away The Wall is. It would be weeks before anyone would show up to help Stannis, by then it would most likely be too late.

That is what is a the base for my whole confusion about motive; who benefits from The Watch showing up weeks after the letter have been send?

[LordManderlyAsDragonRider]

10 hours ago, Clegane'sPup said:

I agree with you. The letter is one of the things that I am looking forward to being explained in WoW.  I'm even starting to think that Whoresbane is involved.

I really hope it gets resolved in WoW, although all the speculation is fun:)

I remember reading a theory about Mors Umber being the author of ALL the letters we see in the north in ADWD, but I thought it was a little too elaborate. But maybe I will re-read it, and focus more on just the pink letter.

This is the theory if you are interested:

https://cantuse.wordpress.com/2014/07/25/the-low-cunning-of-giants-the-devious-geniuses-in-house-umber/

 

[sweetsunray]

1 hour ago, LordManderlyAsDragonRider said:

I have never read it as there being some great dislike between Theon and Jon. Clearly Jon doesn't like Theon, but does Theon even think about Jon? I don't see there being a great enough dislike for Theon to hold a grudge because he for 5 minutes thought about joining The Watch. And would he really think that Jon who also grew up around Jeyne Pool would really mistreat her?

As for getting help for Stannis, Theon knows how far away The Wall is. It would be weeks before anyone would show up to help Stannis, by then it would most likely be too late.

That is what is a the base for my whole confusion about motive; who benefits from The Watch showing up weeks after the letter have been send?

 

Theon's thoughts on Jon

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So that is the way of it, he thought. As if ten years in Winterfell could make a Stark. Lord Eddard had raised him among his own children, but Theon had never been one of them. The whole castle, from Lady Stark to the lowliest kitchen scullion, knew he was hostage to his father's good behavior, and treated him accordingly. Even the bastard Jon Snow had been accorded more honor than he had.

...[snip]...

Only Robb and his baseborn half brother Jon Snow had been old enough to be worth his notice. The bastard was a sullen boy, quick to sense a slight, jealous of Theon's high birth and Robb's regard for him. For Robb himself, Theon did have a certain affection, as for a younger brother . . . but it would be best not to mention that. (aCoK, Theon I)

A brother of the Night's Watch. It meant no crown, no sons, no wife . . . but it meant life, and life with honor. Ned Stark's own brother had chosen the Watch, and Jon Snow as well.

I have black garb aplenty, once I tear the krakens off. Even my horse is black. I could rise high in the Watch—chief of rangers, likely even Lord Commander. Let Asha keep the bloody islands, they're as dreary as she is. If I served at Eastwatch, I could command my own ship, and there's fine hunting beyond the Wall. As for women, what wildling woman wouldn't want a prince in her bed? A slow smile crept across his face. A black cloak can't be turned. I'd be as good as any man . . . (aCoK, Theon IV)

 

"She has a brother still." She has three brothers still, he might have said. "Jon Snow is with the Night's Watch."

"A half-brother, bastard-born, and bound to the Wall. You were her father's ward, the nearest thing she has to living kin. It is only fitting that you give her hand in marriage."(aDwD, Prince of Winterfell)

 

Theon shivered. Baratheon or Bolton, it made no matter to him. Stannis had made common cause with Jon Snow at the Wall, and Jon would take his head off in a heartbeat. Plucked from the clutches of one bastard to die at the hands of another, what a jape. Theon would have laughed aloud if he'd remembered how. (aDwD, Ghost of Winterfell)

 

"Oh, and take the Stark girl with you. Deliver her to Lord Commander Snow on your way to Eastwatch." Stannis tapped the parchment that lay before him. "A true king pays his debts."

Pay it, aye, thought Theon. Pay it with false coin. Jon Snow would see through the impostesure at once. Lord Stark's sullen bastard had known Jeyne Poole, and he had always been fond of his little half-sister Arya. (tWoW, Theon I)

 

 

You also misunderstood my meaning: It is important for Theon that the world thinks that Theon saved Lady Arya, not Jeyne Poole who might as well have been a whore with all that training in brothels. He believes Jon Snow would hurt him, kill him. He does not necessarily think that Jon would kill Jeyne Poole, but he'll treat her like a whore, and "everyone knows CB is full of rapists".

 

Note too how Theon thinks Jon misliked him because of the birth difference, and competes in his mind with Jon based on birthrank. While equally thinking that Jon was treated better than him and given more honors. And yet, Jon was the one who had to sit and watch the show during the feast of the royal visit, while Theon had the honor to be part of the stately family walking to the dais. When people compete with others in their mind on stuff like that, and feel themselves shortchanged when they were not, I'd say that is a very big indication of personal bias and thus rivalry, and not in Jon's favor.

 

The watch isn't supposed to show up. Stannis wants his family with him and his hostages with regards to Mance, not the NW. But Theon wants to get rid of Jon Snow, because Theon believes he'll publically declare Jeyne Poole isn't Arya, and Theon's charade is done. He knows that the chance Stannis gives him is probably his only ticket to life and freedom. If Jon declares Arya to be the steward's daughter Jeyne Poole, then people would believe Theon was up to betraying them with a lie, since he lived for 9 years with the family and know what Arya and Jeyne Poole both look like as well as Jon. He might as well put his head on the chopping block for Stannis right then and there.

[sweetsunray]

12 hours ago, Clegane'sPup said:

Forgive my forgetfulness but I think Martin named the Mance's women helpers spearwives.

You are correct. For some strange reason I want to write spearwives and end up writing shieldmaidens if I don't pay attention to it. No idea why.

 

[sweetsunray]

On 29-4-2016 at 8:16 PM, bemused said:

I'm jumping in in mid- conversation, here.. and (apologies) I haven't had time to read all the way through (but I will).

I'm still standing by my opinion that Alliser Thorne is secretly at CB and manipulating / leading Bowen & co. I believe the conspirators intercepted the letter and forged a facsimile , making it more inflamatory, before sending it to Jon. They would leave alone any claims made in the letter that they couldn't be sure of , perhaps add in some demands of their own, and make sure that any negatives would reflect on Jon (e.g. implicate Jon in the decision to "burn the wrong man")

I do think the use of "whore" is suggestive..Ramsay never uses it that we see. IIRC, all these months / years later, I don't think Mance ever does either. Stannis does, in regard to Gilly (better goat's milk than whore's milk for Mance's son) but he would never use it in regard to Mel.

OTOH, Thorne uses it with exactly the same tone that we see in the letter, when he calls Ygritte an "unwashed whore" during his and Slynt's interrogation of Jon. It's guaged to be as insulting as possible, designed to offend because it's known to be untrue to the person he's addressing.

Of all the candidates, I think it's least like Ramsay , because I think he really will be on "Arya's" trail, and I think his MO is always to use some form of subterfuge in his attacks. Take them by surprise seems to be his motto.

The letter to Asha with, presumably, a copy to Dagmer (I send you each a piece of prince) is an outlier. Roose is probably back in the north by the time it's written, which means Ramsay doesn't have a free hand.. Ramsay wanted to attack Asha and Dagmer; Roose said not yet, they could be dealt with later. Get the wedding and WF settled first... But if a threatening letter might cause A&D to withdraw in the meantime, Roose (once again) would manage to not spend his own men.

Getting back to the wording of the letter, the only time Ramsay uses "bastard" is in reference to his horse - "I rode the bastard hard". Mance uses "bastard" a lot to Jon, as a hint at their first conversation and Jon's lie about his motive for defecting from the Watch. Mance's use is sarcastic in tone but (for me) lacks the pure vitriol that drips from it's use in the letter , and coincidentally, from the way Thorne uses it to Jon. If the letter was being spoken to Jon, it would sound exactly like Thorne.

So I don't think Ramsay would give any kind of warning. Either Mance or Stannis would want to warn Jon of the situation.. and in all cases, Thorne would want to turn it to his advantage, in his desire to see Jon dead.

Bowen is under pressure from Thorne and possibly from KL, even after Tywin's death , if Pycelle and Kevan sent the letter they proposed to send in Cersei's small council meeting.. ..and as he did before, when he chased the Weeper, Bowen panics and acts too soon.

I'll be back with a bit more, later. (damn real life, anyway.)

I agree that the way whore and bastard is used in the letter would be right up Thorne's alley. But the issue is with Mance, the bride and Reek. If you think it was a feign letter from Stannis's camp with him able to oversee the content being sent to CB that was ramped up by Thorne, then it is doubtful Stannis would have included the Mance switcheroo. Stannis does not actually want the bride back and wouldn't have Reek mentioned, not after he sent the bride to CB just recently and kept Reek. He would just want a letter written that declares him dead and having a lost a battle, and a Bolton demanding hostages to be sent (the people Stannis wants at WF). But Stannis including Reek into it out of his own volition and the Mance switcheroo seems a stretch. 

I'd say Thorne being behind it with this scenario is more likely than Ramsay for style reasons, but less likely than Mance or Theon for half of the data content issues and opportunity issues.

The letter would be absolutely solved if we stuck Theon, Mance and Thorne in one room and have a go at writing a letter to Jon Snow.

[Free Northman Reborn]

Lord Varys

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Actually, Jon could have become Robb's successor simply because Robb was apparently preparing a deal with the NW to get Jon out of the NW. He mentioned something like offer them many men in return for releasing Jon from his vows. And he doesn't have to be Lord Commander in this scenario, either, because Robb's will could have arrived at the Wall long before the election of a new Lord Commander. In fact, if some Northern Lords had brought men to defend the Wall and went happily along with that wildlings deal/peace then there would have been no need for Stannis at all.

The above fails to acknowledge the narrative need to have the Starks go through a nadir, a leaderless period of seeming disaster as is standard practice in a dramatic narrative. It also fails to link Jon's storyline adequately with the Watch, and moves him straight into being Robb 2.0, rather than following the unique path that sets him up as the only leader that focuses on the true threat rather than on the Game of Thrones. If Robb's will went straight to the Wall, and Jon stepped into his role early on, it would have happened to soon in the context of the Greater War against the Others. Jon had to first be set up as the Commander of the Watch, to put him central in this war, so that his move to unite the North would be seen as an extension of the Cause he is serving, rather as a mere desire to avenge his family.

As I said, it also gives a refuge for Arya, Sansa and Rickon too soon in their arcs.

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It is you who asserts again and again that the North still has a lot of men - but where the hell were those men when Maester Aemon wrote his letters asking for help to defend the Wall? How is it possible that no Northman came but Stannis Baratheon had time to get his fleet from Dragonstone to Eastwatch?

I'm not sure how this is an issue in the context of the current debate, but to answer you, we KNOW there are men - and a lot more of them than the number that Stannis brought to the Wall. Stannis brough 1500 men at best. We have already seen that the Clans have around twice that number, the Dustins and Ryswells easily have 1500 between them, Manderly at a minimum has twice that number remaining, the Umbers and Karstarks have raised around 1000 between them, and that's just to name some of the obvious evidence in Dance.

So the idea that the North did not have the men to respond in similar fashion to Stannis's paltry 1500 relief force is patently false. So clearly, it was not an issue of not being able to respond, but rather not being WILLING to respond without a unifying leader to galvanize them. Each lord was rather looking after his own interests. But to find 1500 men to send to the Wall would not have been difficult in the slightest, if there was a Stark in Winterfell. Ser Rodrik raised 2000 men in a couple of weeks, to retake Torhenn Square. So the argument seems a non-starter.

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I'm actually not sure what's the important point about 'the Bolton threat'. That is all just a plot device to weaken the North even further, is it not? I mean - anyone who has understood the real threat (and both Stannis and Jon pretend they do) and is willing to make a deal with the wildlings should also try to come to an agreement with Roose regardless whom he betrayed and murdered. The Boltons could just as well help the NW defending the Wall.

This is where we are simply reading two different series, I'm afraid. You see the purpose of the "Bolton threat" as simply another event on the path to weaken the North as much as possible, in order to make it a mere footnote in the eventual Others' invasion. To devastate it completely so that the South and Daenerys's forces can come into play as soon as possible in the last two books.

I find this to be narratively naive in the extreme. The dramatic effort that Martin put into the Stark rise and downfall makes it clear that the fortunes of House Stark are an integral part of this story. The Others invasion and the fall and re-emegence of House Stark are intricately linked. You cannot seem to accept that. To you House Stark is simply another House in Westeros. As important as House Martell, Lannister, Arryn or Tyrell. That is simply not a justifiable position from a narrative point of view.

The purpose of the Bolton threat is to create a villain which Stark fans can despise in the extreme. To bring House Stark low. And be a focal point of resentment while the Stark period of devestation and despair holds sway. The return to glory of House Stark is as narratively important as is the war against the Others. And for that to be sufficiently satisfying, the Boltons had to be sufficiently cruel, and successful, during the buildup to House Stark's return. For Jon to just have stepped in where Robb left off would have reduced the dramatic effect of this mid-series tribulation significantly.

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And neither does the idea that he'll go on some spirit journey and gains secret knowledge/powers while he is dead. He'll most likely be stuck in Ghost for the time being, that's it. While I think his resurrection might change his body somewhat there is no reason to believe that this will change anything about the belief of his overall role. If Melisandre or anyone would begin the suspect anything about his true heritage and stuff one should assume this would have been prepared during ADwD in some fashion. And you should keep in mind that Jon Snow having Targaryen blood is more likely to cause Melisandre to see him as a potential sacrifice than her changing her mind on who Azor Ahai is. She is pretty much set on that and I'd actually be very surprised if she would be able to see anyone but Stannis as the savior. If Stannis should truly die at one point she is more likely to despair and join the cause of the Great Other (or think he has already won) than thinking that she herself was wrong all that time.

Not to mention that Jon Snow is in no way favored by those parts of the prophecy that talk about a comet/bleeding star or the place of salt and smoke. But Stannis was, apparently, and him being on Dragonstone was a major point for Melisandre. Jon Snow wasn't on Dragonstone throughout his entire life. And neither has a comet heralded his birth or rebirth. The only comet that has featured in the series as of yet was the red one, and that one heralded the return of the dragons.

Jon is following the Hero's journey. His lowest point has arrived. But from it he will gain his greatest strength. At a price of course. And after making a hard choice, of course. Most likely that choice will be to let go of the Watch, effectively "break his oath", to unite the North and eventually the Realm, against the real threat of the Others.

He has not been ready to do this up to now. We saw that when he refused Stannis's offer of Winterfell. (Which by the way, was narratively impossible to accept, as no true Stark fan would have warmed to him accepting Winterfell from a non-Stark in any case. So the refusal was always going to happen.) But now his experience will have changed him, and the circumstances will be more satisfying from a reader's perspective.

As for Mellisandre. How can you be blind to the manner in which Martin has already started shifting her interest from Stannis to Jon? This despite her own best intentions. In her own visions, she has started seeing Jon when she asks to see Azor Ahai. She already senses Jon has some kind of power. Some kind of greater destiny. All it will take is one more clearer vision - and perhaps a vision of Stannis's defeat as well - to open her eyes to that.

And it seems highly unlikely that Mellisandre - who is from Essos, and closely linked to Fire, would not see a single vision of Daenerys, ever, in her quest to find Azor Ahai. Instead, she sees the man who will lead her to Jon.

Furthermore, it is doubtful that the prophecies will turn out to be as obvious as simply referring to the actual red comet, or to Dragonstone or the three eggs that were hatched. The more obscure explanations that have been floated about are more likely to be closer to the truth. Like Jon's smoking wound, the blood on the stars on Ser Patricks clothing, or perhaps even something as subtle as the prophecy being a twisted version of being born under a "bleeding Stark" instead of "Star", in reference to Lyanna's bed of blood.

Jon's entire arc is to be the focal point of the Song of Ice and Fire. And thanks to Stannis, the power of Fire - Mellisandre - and the power of Ice - the Old Gods through Bran and Bloodraven - are uniquely brought together in the hour when Jon happens to die and needs to be reborn. There is not a single other character in the series who combines the Song of Ice and Fire in the way that Jon does. Dany has no connection to Ice. And Bran has no connection to Fire. Only Jon meets those criteria.

[aryagonnakill#2]

Not mentioning the spikey handwriting is a point in favor of Ramsay writing the letter not a point against.  If you got a note from your boss at work and it was in his handwriting you wouldn't comment on the handwriting.  If you got a note fmr your boss that wasn't in his handwriting it would be noteworthy.