Jon is a traitor to the Night Watch

[Springwatch]

1 hour ago, kissdbyfire said:

But the rapists and poachers and thieves can and should leave. I mean, the ones whose heart isn't really in it, b/c some loyal brothers have dodgy pasts, like, is it Dywen who was a poacher? Anyway, my point is, these unredeemed criminals are part of the reason why the NW is no longer true, and consequently they are part of the reason why the magic in the Wall will fail. What is needed is for the NW to be true to its purpose, as it was in the distant past. The solution is right there; with the coming of the wildlings, the Wall will again have a vast majority of pure First Men blood manning its castles. This passage illustrates this beautifully imo, it's like watching CB come back to life, literally.

“Bowen Marsh was waiting for him south of the Wall, with a tablet full of numbers. “Three thousand one hundred and nineteen wildlings passed through the gate today,” the Lord Steward told him. “Sixty of your hostages were sent off to Eastwatch and the Shadow Tower after they’d been fed. Edd Tollett took six wagons of women back to Long Barrow. The rest remain with us.”
“Not for long,” Jon promised him. “Tormund means to lead his own folk to Oakenshield within a day or two. The rest will follow, as soon as we sort where to put them.”
“As you say, Lord Snow.” The words were stiff. The tone suggested that Bowen Marsh knew where he would put them.
The castle Jon returned to was far different from the one he’d left that morning. For as long as he had known it, Castle Black had been a place of silence and shadows, where a meagre company of men in black moved like ghosts amongst the ruins of a fortress that had once housed ten times their numbers. All that had changed. Lights now shone through windows where Jon Snow had never seen lights shine before. Strange voices echoed down the yards, and free folk were coming and going along icy paths that had only known the black boots of crows for years. Outside the old Flint Barracks, he came across a dozen men pelting one another with snow. Playing, Jon thought in astonishment, grown men playing like children, throwing snowballs the way Bran and Arya once did, and Robb and me before them.”

Interesting. If the defence of the wall is anything like conventional warfare, replacing watchmen with wildings wouldn't work. They don't have the training and they don't really believe in leaders, so teamwork might be poor. And, like the watchmen, almost any course of action is better than staying put and manning the wall.

The wall is magical though. The door like a mouth that opened for Sam was responding to the oath of the watchmen - proving that the wall 'knows' its own defenders.

It's just possible the wildings with their first men blood can make their own connection to the wall's magic (I can't see them swearing the oath) and they might have their own traditions that help them stay put in the face of ice zombies.

Jon couldn't know that though, nor could Bowen Marsh.

[kissdbyfire]

35 minutes ago, Springwatch said:

Interesting. If the defence of the wall is anything like conventional warfare, replacing watchmen with wildings wouldn't work. They don't have the training and they don't really believe in leaders, so teamwork might be poor. And, like the watchmen, almost any course of action is better than staying put and manning the wall.

The wall is magical though. The door like a mouth that opened for Sam was responding to the oath of the watchmen - proving that the wall 'knows' its own defenders.

It's just possible the wildings with their first men blood can make their own connection to the wall's magic (I can't see them swearing the oath) and they might have their own traditions that help them stay put in the face of ice zombies.

Jon couldn't know that though, nor could Bowen Marsh.

I think saying the wildlings won't follow leaders is a huge exaggeration. Sure, they're unruly and not very disciplined. But they do follow leaders they consider worth following. And at this point Jon is pretty much their leader.

Jon Snow, the King of Winter 

And there's also the fact that they not only believe in the threat north of the Wall, but have been dealing with WWs and wights for some time. And as you said, the majority of the black brothers are thieves and rapists, criminals, so I don't think they'd make for such superior fighters when it's time to face the WWs and the army of the dead. 

Regarding the oath, I don't think they'd have to swear it. Jon has already said as much, 

“I do not require men to kneel, but they do need to obey.”

And the original oath might have been different, there's lots of speculation that a lot was added to it at a much later date. 

 

[Lord Varys]

19 hours ago, Nevets said:

Given his earlier thoughts on his inability to help Arya, I seriously doubt that he would have authorized Mance to rescue Arya from Winerfell.  In fact, I strongly suspect that if he had thought of it, he would have expressly forbidden him to do so.  Jon is not stupid.  He is not going to start a fight with the Boltons if he doesn't have to.

So you think Jon Snow allowed Mance to take a bunch of spearwives with so that he could have some fuck buddies while he was waiting for Arya? Come on! The reason to send Mance is that Mance was a competent guy and (apparently) not one of his people who could actually infiltrate Winterfell. If Jon just needed some guy to wait for Arya down on the Kingsroad he could have sent some black brothers, Melisandre, or perhaps even have gone himself.

He didn't need Mance and an infiltration unit for any of that. Just as he was perfectly capable to grant asylum to Alys Karstark when she later arrived.

19 hours ago, Nevets said:

We actually don't know whose orders Mance is following, whether Jon's or Mel's.  It is quite possible Mel told him to get Arya no matter what, or that Mance has some other hidden agenda.  We simply don't know enough at this point.

And it is also quite possible that Jon Snow told Mance to get Arya no matter what. In fact, that is very likely considering his feelings for his sister. Once he had accepted Mel's suggestion he must have been on board the whole thing.

Any idea what that 'hidden agenda' could be? All Mance and his women did was to try to rescue Arya and fucking things up in the process. If they had an hidden agenda then it must be a hell of a hidden (and confusing) agenda indeed.

12 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

As to how the society of Westeros will react to it, well, that remains to be seen. I don't think George created Jon Snow for him to become an outlaw on the run, hunted down by every lord in Westeros. That would defeat his entire purpose as a character.

Such a scenario is impossible. Jon was killed already in ADwD. There is no reason to kill him again. Unless we assume that deserting/rebelling is crime that deserves an infinite punishment (i.e. Jon is going to be killed again and again until he stays dead).

I could see Jon's desertion/warring become a problem if he actually left the Wall with an army after his resurrection. Because only the people witnessing his murder and subsequent resurrection will believe the story that he died and return to life. Everybody south of Castle Black (and perhaps even people in the other castles at the Wall) won't believe this story without good evidence.

And thus they might decide that this guy is just some oathbreaker and traitor who has to be put down. I could see a majority of the Northmen being of that opinion if Jon brought another war to them after the Boltons have just defeated Stannis and his entire army (if the Pink Letter was actually true then the survivors might now be determined to make their peace with the Boltons).

And the people in the South would be even less inclined to buy a story about some resurrected Stark bastard. They would dismiss the story out of hand and accuse them all of treason and rebellion. I mean, if the resurrection routine worked one has to wonder why Gared and Mance didn't use it before? Did nobody think of that yet? Or do we truly believe people in Westeros believe that people can return from the dead?

12 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

I suspect that some major supernatural upheaval of convention is about to happen, on a similar level to Dany's birthing of Dragons, which allowed her to overturn the traditional limitations imposed on a Khaleesi in Dothraki society.

The miracles surrounding Dany only impressed the people witnessing them. The Unburnt is just a story for the people hearing the tale. It is really only for the bunch of people who saw it happening. Sure, Dany has dragons, but you don't have to believe the story how she got her dragons.

Unless Jon's resurrection comes along with some major lasting magical effect that confirms his resurrection from the dead to any skeptic (no idea what that could be) he won't be in a very good position in the magical department. 

[Free Northman Reborn]

45 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

So you think Jon Snow allowed Mance to take a bunch of spearwives with so that he could have some fuck buddies while he was waiting for Arya? Come on! The reason to send Mance is that Mance was a competent guy and (apparently) not one of his people who could actually infiltrate Winterfell. If Jon just needed some guy to wait for Arya down on the Kingsroad he could have sent some black brothers, Melisandre, or perhaps even have gone himself.

He didn't need Mance and an infiltration unit for any of that. Just as he was perfectly capable to grant asylum to Alys Karstark when she later arrived.

And it is also quite possible that Jon Snow told Mance to get Arya no matter what. In fact, that is very likely considering his feelings for his sister. Once he had accepted Mel's suggestion he must have been on board the whole thing.

Any idea what that 'hidden agenda' could be? All Mance and his women did was to try to rescue Arya and fucking things up in the process. If they had an hidden agenda then it must be a hell of a hidden (and confusing) agenda indeed.

Such a scenario is impossible. Jon was killed already in ADwD. There is no reason to kill him again. Unless we assume that deserting/rebelling is crime that deserves an infinite punishment (i.e. Jon is going to be killed again and again until he stays dead).

I could see Jon's desertion/warring become a problem if he actually left the Wall with an army after his resurrection. Because only the people witnessing his murder and subsequent resurrection will believe the story that he died and return to life. Everybody south of Castle Black (and perhaps even people in the other castles at the Wall) won't believe this story without good evidence.

And thus they might decide that this guy is just some oathbreaker and traitor who has to be put down. I could see a majority of the Northmen being of that opinion if Jon brought another war to them after the Boltons have just defeated Stannis and his entire army (if the Pink Letter was actually true then the survivors might now be determined to make their peace with the Boltons).

And the people in the South would be even less inclined to buy a story about some resurrected Stark bastard. They would dismiss the story out of hand and accuse them all of treason and rebellion. I mean, if the resurrection routine worked one has to wonder why Gared and Mance didn't use it before? Did nobody think of that yet? Or do we truly believe people in Westeros believe that people can return from the dead?

The miracles surrounding Dany only impressed the people witnessing them. The Unburnt is just a story for the people hearing the tale. It is really only for the bunch of people who saw it happening. Sure, Dany has dragons, but you don't have to believe the story how she got her dragons.

Unless Jon's resurrection comes along with some major lasting magical effect that confirms his resurrection from the dead to any skeptic (no idea what that could be) he won't be in a very good position in the magical department. 

We are all shooting from the hip here, but what if for example it turns out that the Commander of the Watch had authority over all the armies of men back in the Long Night. And that once the dead start rising, the entire North effectively gets "deputized" into the Watch, seeing as the Watch as it was before was essentialy anihilated in recent events.

I can imagine some kind of Grand Conference at Winterfell, where the entire North realizes the urgency of the situation, and Jon unites them all into a Reborn Night's Watch, led by a Stark. . Of course the oaths need not remain the same. It could merely be a kind of allegiance to the commander of the Watch. Until the Others are defeated.

And as the cold winds rise, the dead start walking and magical events increase in intensity, a kind of doomsday "cult of the Watch" then gradually spreads South, to the Vale and the Riverlands, and eventually further, with men all over Westeros swearing to the Watch as their last hope in these "End Times".

Anyway, that is one scenario. It probably won't happen like that. But the point is that when Armageddon threatens, when portents, omens and signs start appearing everywhere, people act in rather drastic ways. We see that in our own world when the turn of a millenium arrives, or the planets align, or the Mayan calender reaches its end. Imagine the situation in an already superstitious Westeros, where real magic is present, and the news of a Lord Commander of the Night's Watch, Reborn from death and with the ability to fight the armies of the dead spreads through the Realm.

Magic is becoming more prominent, as you say. I expect some radical developments in the next books.

[Lord Varys]

13 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

We are all shooting from the hip here, but what if for example it turns out that the Commander of the Watch had authority over all the armies of men back in the Long Night. And that once the dead start rising, the entire North effectively gets "deputized" into the Watch, seeing as the Watch as it was before was essentialy anihilated in recent events.

That doesn't seem to fit together with what we know about the history.

13 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

I can imagine some kind of Grand Conference at Winterfell, where the entire North realizes the urgency of the situation, and Jon unites them all into a Reborn Night's Watch, led by a Stark. . Of course the oaths need not remain the same. It could merely be a kind of allegiance to the commander of the Watch. Until the Others are defeated.

The North effectively ignored the calls for help when Mance knocked at their door. If they shut their eyes from the threat they actually believe in (the wildlings) then I see no reason why they should change their mind on the threat the Others pose just because some people tell them that they exist. They have not seen them, after all.

I think there is a chance that Stannis takes some survivors back to the Wall (if he wins the battle; or Jon, if he has to march to defeat the Boltons) and there might be some sort of alliance against the Others. But I don't think it will be many men. I think there will be a lot of casualties in the battle(s) of ice, and if Roose or Ramsay get away then the war might even continue. And before the Others come the Weeper might yet attack and take the Bridge of Skulls and the Shadow Tower. He is the wildling captain with the most men and he has nothing to lose.

13 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

And as the cold winds rise, the dead start walking and magical events increase in intensity, a kind of doomsday "cult of the Watch" then gradually spreads South, to the Vale and the Riverlands, and eventually further, with men all over Westeros swearing to the Watch as their last hope in these "End Times".

That doesn't fit into this story. People cannot travel far in the middle of winter if there is a true winter, and they don't have the food to even try to do so. Nobody would believe the Others are responsible for this shit, anyway. Why should they? Even if the dead would rise - so what? Who is to say that the Lord of the Seven Hells isn't responsible?

13 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Anyway, that is one scenario. It probably won't happen like that. But the point is that when Armageddon threatens, when portents, omens and signs start appearing everywhere, people act in rather drastic ways. We see that in our own world when the turn of a millenium arrives, or the planets align, or the Mayan calender reaches its end. Imagine the situation in an already superstitious Westeros, where real magic is present, and the news of a Lord Commander of the Night's Watch, Reborn from death and with the ability to fight the armies of the dead spreads through the Realm.

Well, Red Priests in other places could offer such knowledge, too. The idea that news spread by some people traveling down south (nobody else could spread such tales) would motivate people to actually travel north to the Wall doesn't make any sense to me. Winter is worst in the North, so better go down south, right, if you consider leaving your home?

 

[BalerionTheCat]

4 hours ago, kissdbyfire said:

But the system is already broken. So maybe it needs to be completely destroyed so that it can be rebuilt. 

With the LN coming and all the carnage south and east, you can be sure the system will be utterly destroyed.

On 14/07/2016 at 10:14 PM, Arya Targaryen said:

For 8000 years the NW vows made sense. They did not interfere with the realm, so they survived. The vows' purpose was fulfilled.

If I pay attention to TWoIaF and the Yi Ti legends, the LN was sent to men because of evil practices. And it was only when a great warrior led the virtuous into battle that the darkness was put to rout. So I would believe one of the duties of the NW would be to insure that the evil practices remain forbidden. Which would mean interfering in the kingdoms' affairs if necessary. Which would have been possible so long as the kingdoms were small and divided. And until some men like Bowen Marsh and our Lord Varys told us bending the knee to the kings or king is safer and wiser.

[Free Northman Reborn]

52 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

That doesn't seem to fit together with what we know about the history.

The North effectively ignored the calls for help when Mance knocked at their door. If they shut their eyes from the threat they actually believe in (the wildlings) then I see no reason why they should change their mind on the threat the Others pose just because some people tell them that they exist. They have not seen them, after all.

I think there is a chance that Stannis takes some survivors back to the Wall (if he wins the battle; or Jon, if he has to march to defeat the Boltons) and there might be some sort of alliance against the Others. But I don't think it will be many men. I think there will be a lot of casualties in the battle(s) of ice, and if Roose or Ramsay get away then the war might even continue. And before the Others come the Weeper might yet attack and take the Bridge of Skulls and the Shadow Tower. He is the wildling captain with the most men and he has nothing to lose.

That doesn't fit into this story. People cannot travel far in the middle of winter if there is a true winter, and they don't have the food to even try to do so. Nobody would believe the Others are responsible for this shit, anyway. Why should they? Even if the dead would rise - so what? Who is to say that the Lord of the Seven Hells isn't responsible?

Well, Red Priests in other places could offer such knowledge, too. The idea that news spread by some people traveling down south (nobody else could spread such tales) would motivate people to actually travel north to the Wall doesn't make any sense to me. Winter is worst in the North, so better go down south, right, if you consider leaving your home?

 

I think your mistake is that you remain caught in this paradigm of a "front line" against the Others, at the Wall, then at Moat Cailin and then finally at the Trident where Dany comes and turns the tide with her Dragons. Jon need not fight the Others at the Wall or on the northernmost edge of civilization. He will lead the effort everywhere.

There will be no front line once the Wall collapses. If the Wall falls, so do the spells stopping the dead from rising everywhere in Westeros. The front line will be on the walls of every castle. 'I am the Watcher on the walls" Plural.

So no need for men to march North to join the fight against the Others. They will engage in that fight in their home towns and villages.

[Lord Varys]

16 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

I think your mistake is that you remain caught in this paradigm of a "front line" against the Others, at the Wall, then at Moat Cailin and then finally at the Trident where Dany comes and turns the tide with her Dragons. Jon need not fight the Others at the Wall or on the northernmost edge of civilization. He will lead the effort everywhere.

It doesn't have to go that way. It will depend when exactly the Wall is going to fall in relation to the eventual ending of the book. That will determine how much pages the actual all-out fight against the Others will cover in relation to the entire series. I thought the Wall would fall in ADwD. It didn't. With all the new plot threads I'm actually not expecting it will fall in the next book, either. Or perhaps only at the very end of the next book.

But what makes you believe anybody would care about Jon when there are literally hundreds or thousands of people down south who could also become leaders in the fight against the Others? Jon's existence/relevance is not going to become magically evident all across the Realm. And nobody down south would want to come up North. Not in winter.

16 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

There will be no front line once the Wall collapses. If the Wall falls, so do the spells stopping the dead from rising everywhere in Westeros. The front line will be on the walls of every castle. 'I am the Watcher on the walls" Plural.

 

I always interpreted the walls thing as a remnant of the time when there were walls between the existing castles which would eventually form the Wall.

That aside, there is no evidence that the Others can raise corpses that aren't close by. All the wights we have met so far might literally have been resurrected by the Others (as Waymar was) or may have been affected by the curse because wights killed and infected them. Torwynd seems to be an exception but we do know that the Others can camouflage themselves very well. They might have been there, sending the cold which also contained the wight curse. Gared makes it clear that the cold is evil and insidious in this world in the very Prologue of AGoT.

For it to be wights down in the South it has to be as cold down there as it is right now beyond/at the Wall. Winter could get a lot harder after the Wall falls but I'm still more inclined to believe that the Others have to be physically rather close by to make wights.

16 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

So no need for men to march North to join the fight against the Others. They will engage in that fight in their home towns and villages.

Such a scenario would be very difficult to depict. We have a very limited number of POVs, after all.

[BalerionTheCat]

31 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

It doesn't have to go that way. It will depend when exactly the Wall is going to fall in relation to the eventual ending of the book. That will determine how much pages the actual all-out fight against the Others will cover in relation to the entire series. I thought the Wall would fall in ADwD. It didn't. With all the new plot threads I'm actually not expecting it will fall in the next book, either. Or perhaps only at the very end of the next book.

I would be very surprised, if after all the show of ignoring their existence, the WW would not come to KL, to knock on their doors.

[Lord Varys]

Just now, BalerionTheCat said:

I would be very surprised, if after all the show of ignoring their existence, the WW would not come to KL, to knock on their doors.

I'm with you, there. I want this series to be about the Others in the end. But it will depend on the scale of the series. If there are only two books left then nothing to this sort should happen because a virtual ton of plot lines have to be dealt with before the grand finale can even begin.

[BalerionTheCat]

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

I'm with you, there. I want this series to be about the Others in the end. But it will depend on the scale of the series. If there are only two books left then nothing to this sort should happen because a virtual ton of plot lines have to be dealt with before the grand finale can even begin.

We're not sure of that. I don't know if I prefer Cersei to welcome the WW, and later Daenrys to deal with them. Or Cersei to deal with Aegon, then Aegon with Daenrys, then Daenrys with the WW. The lack of preparation is mainly on Cersei's plate. She should pay some of its price. Even if the Valonqar, not the WW, will be her death. Ideally, we should have in semi finals, Cersei vs WW in KL, and Aegon vs Daenrys in Dorne.

[Lord Varys]

3 minutes ago, BalerionTheCat said:

We're not sure of that. I don't know if I prefer Cersei to welcome the WW, and later Daenrys to deal with them. Or Cersei to deal with Aegon, then Aegon with Daenrys, then Daenrys with the WW. The lack of preparation is mainly on Cersei's plate. She should pay some of its price. Even if the Valonqar, not the WW, will be her death. Ideally, we should have in semi finals, Cersei vs WW in KL, and Aegon vs Daenrys in Dorne.

Cersei is irrelevant. There are tons of other plots which have to be dealt with or at least reach a certain point before the Others can come down south. Both Euron and Aegon most likely would have been introduced if their ambitions and plans would be effectively be cut short by the Others.

Ned, Tywin, and Robert are much more to blame for the lack of preparation. They were in charge of Winterfell/KL much longer than Cersei.

Considering that Dany is going to come via ship there is no reason for her not to take KL at once. It is a coastal city. As things stand she'll have a vast army and not be in need of any assistance from any lord in Westeros (not mention that Euron/Cersei, Aegon, Stannis, Littlefinger, etc. will see to it that they are all more or less spent or occupied with other things when she arrives).

All this will take time. A lot of time. You can make a word count of the already published TWoW and compare that to the word count of ASoS and ADwD. And then you get the percentage of the content of the book we already know. I've not done that but the chances that the two battles, the situation in KL, and Aegon's campaign in the Stormlands as well as Euron's battles with the Redwynes and Hightowers will take a lot of space is pretty obvious. Combine that with the number of POVs, the need to continue all the secondary plots (especially Bran, Samwell, Sansa, Arya, and Davos) and it becomes clear that the story cannot continue all that much further in TWoW.

Not even if a lot of characters suddenly die.

[Maia]

8 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

 There are tons of other plots which have to be dealt with or at least reach a certain point before the Others can come down south. Both Euron and Aegon most likely would have been introduced if their ambitions and plans would be effectively be cut short by the Others.

 

But Euron may be an agent of the Others! In fact, it would make sense if the Others had a number of unwitting and/or aware agents among the humans. The guy who cut off Varys's manhood and talked with something with an incredibly terrifying voice through a _blue_ flame, for instance.

Personally, I firmly believe that the Others will make it south of the Wall in the first half of TWoW, even though it may be a few infiltrators at first, rather than  a full-scale assault. Anything else would trivialize their threat to an unacceptable degree, IMHO

In fact, I fully expect the aftermath of the Battle of Ice, after the surviving troops have moved on, to be the corpses of the dead rising as wights, because some Others had already sneaked through. It islikely that the thing with the wights of Jafer and Othor back in AGoT was not just an assassination mission, but also a field test  for a possible insertion route. And since the wights remained operational after being brought through the Wall, the Others can be transported in the same way. Some of the tribes from the Frozen Shore worship "gods of ice and snow" according to TWoIaF, which are clearly the Others, and there are Frozen Shore folks among the Tormund's group. Or they could just sail around the Wall on one of the ships that Jon sent to Hardhome. I could see rumors of a seemingly empty ship fetching somewhere on the eastern shore of the North, followed by suspicous disappearances, like in Stoker's Dracula. 

P.S. I do think that the Others need to be somewhere in proximity to raise wights.

[Free Northman Reborn]

I agree that an Other needs to be within a certain proximity to raise wights in an area. But I see no reason why, once the Wall has fallen, the Others cannot filter straight through to the South where increased population density will mean larger numbers of corpses within any given radius than in the North.

Its not like anyone is going to stop an Other, travelling at Night, just because he happens to pass by an abandoned Moat Cailin. If tens of thousands die in the South in the wars between Euron, Aegon, Mace Tyrell, Dorne and Dany, well, that's a large wight army just begging to be raised.

That should attract Others like a pile of horse dung attracts flies.

[Lord Varys]

19 minutes ago, Maia said:

But Euron may be an agent of the Others! In fact, it would make sense if the Others had a number of unwitting and/or aware agents among the humans. The guy who cut off Varys's manhood and talked with something with an incredibly terrifying voice through a _blue_ flame, for instance.

Well, wasn't that guy some sorcerer from Myr? I think it would be very surprising if such people were in league with the Others. And Euron, well, he might be inadvertently helping the Others as everybody in Westeros has done since the beginning of the series but I doubt he is actually controlled by them. In fact, I think if his magical abilities are really strong he could even become a threat to them - especially if he got a dragon in the end.

I think Euron will become a force of chaos and destruction but that isn't what he wants to be. He wants the conquer Westeros and become a real king. I think he is not lying about that desire.

19 minutes ago, Maia said:

Personally, I firmly believe that the Others will make it south of the Wall in the first half of TWoW, even though it may be a few infiltrators at first, rather than  a full-scale assault. Anything else would trivialize their threat to an unacceptable degree, IMHO

I hoped that something like that would happen in ADwD. And the entire Others plot was completely ignored. Perhaps it won't be the same in TWoW but I'm skeptical about that. If we took 'there are only two books left' as fact then the Others would have to show their faces big time in TWoW, of course. But I don't think we should take that as fact.

The idea of Others/wights circumventing the Wall via the Gorge and the Bridge of Skulls or using rafts and ships to cross the Bay of Ice to land on Sea Dragon Point makes a lot of sense, actually. I'm completely on board with such scenarios. I guess the seaborne route could already been take right now. There seems to be little traffic in the Bay of Ice and literally nobody seems to be living on Sea Dragon Point (and it is odd that we were even introduced to that place in AFfC if it is completely irrelevant - nobody is ever talking to other places on the map that are of no significance to the plot like Cape Kraken or the Cape of Eagles) making it a very good place for the Others/wights to make themselves a base camp without anybody noticing it.

19 minutes ago, Maia said:

In fact, I fully expect the aftermath of the Battle of Ice, after the surviving troops have moved on, to be the corpses of the dead rising as wights, because some Others had already sneaked through. It islikely that the thing with the wights of Jafer and Othor back in AGoT was not just an assassination mission, but also a field test  for a possible insertion route. And since the wights remained operational after being brought through the Wall, the Others can be transported in the same way. Some of the tribes from the Frozen Shore worship "gods of ice and snow" according to TWoIaF, which are clearly the Others, and there are Frozen Shore folks among the Tormund's group. Or they could just sail around the Wall on one of the ships that Jon sent to Hardhome. I could see rumors of a seemingly empty ship fetching somewhere on the eastern shore of the North, followed by suspicous disappearances, like in Stoker's Dracula.

I doubt that there will be such a surprise after the battle(s) of ice, but I can see stuff like that eventually happening. I still expect the Weeper to make another attack on the Bridge of Skulls and the Shadow Tower, taking both and thus inadvertently (or deliberately - that guy could ally himself with the Others now that Mance has failed) paving the way for the Others.

The ships sent to Hardhome might also end up becoming some sort of Trojan Horse. If so, then Eastwatch might fall eventually, too.

12 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

I agree that an Other needs to be within a certain proximity to raise wights in an area. But I see no reason why, once the Wall has fallen, the Others cannot filter straight through to the South where increased population density will mean larger numbers of corpses within any given radius than in the North.

The thing is that the Others aren't necessarily all that numerous nor is there are a hint that they are right now focusing very much on the Wall although they could hang out there all day long, presumably. Why would they want to provoke/motivate humanity down south to prepare for them/attack them if they can avoid that by taking out different portions of humanity at the time? First the wildlings, then the Northmen, then the crannogmen, then the Riverlanders, and so on? That is the way you kill vermin if you can't kill them all at once.

12 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Its not like anyone is going to stop an Other, travelling at Night, just because he happens to pass by an abandoned Moat Cailin. If tens of thousands die in the South in the wars between Euron, Aegon, Mace Tyrell, Dorne and Dany, well, that's a large wight army just begging to be raised.

We don't know how easy it is for the Others to raise buried/rotten corpses. Many wights are horribly disfigured/ripped apart but there are no skeleton-like wight or completely rotten corpses. They certainly could raise reasonably fresh corpses, but I very much doubt that all the dead on the graveyards of Westeros are going to rise.

[Free Northman Reborn]

9 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Well, wasn't that guy some sorcerer from Myr? I think it would be very surprising if such people were in league with the Others. And Euron, well, he might be inadvertently helping the Others as everybody in Westeros has done since the beginning of the series but I doubt he is actually controlled by them. In fact, I think if his magical abilities are really strong he could even become a threat to them - especially if he got a dragon in the end.

I think Euron will become a force of chaos and destruction but that isn't what he wants to be. He wants the conquer Westeros and become a real king. I think he is not lying about that desire.

I hoped that something like that would happen in ADwD. And the entire Others plot was completely ignored. Perhaps it won't be the same in TWoW but I'm skeptical about that. If we took 'there are only two books left' as fact then the Others would have to show their faces big time in TWoW, of course. But I don't think we should take that as fact.

The idea of Others/wights circumventing the Wall via the Gorge and the Bridge of Skulls or using rafts and ships to cross the Bay of Ice to land on Sea Dragon Point makes a lot of sense, actually. I'm completely on board with such scenarios. I guess the seaborne route could already been take right now. There seems to be little traffic in the Bay of Ice and literally nobody seems to be living on Sea Dragon Point (and it is odd that we were even introduced to that place in AFfC if it is completely irrelevant - nobody is ever talking to other places on the map that are of no significance to the plot like Cape Kraken or the Cape of Eagles) making it a very good place for the Others/wights to make themselves a base camp without anybody noticing it.

I doubt that there will be such a surprise after the battle(s) of ice, but I can see stuff like that eventually happening. I still expect the Weeper to make another attack on the Bridge of Skulls and the Shadow Tower, taking both and thus inadvertently (or deliberately - that guy could ally himself with the Others now that Mance has failed) paving the way for the Others.

The ships sent to Hardhome might also end up becoming some sort of Trojan Horse. If so, then Eastwatch might fall eventually, too.

The thing is that the Others aren't necessarily all that numerous nor is there are a hint that they are right now focusing very much on the Wall although they could hang out there all day long, presumably. Why would they want to provoke/motivate humanity down south to prepare for them/attack them if they can avoid that by taking out different portions of humanity at the time? First the wildlings, then the Northmen, then the crannogmen, then the Riverlanders, and so on? That is the way you kill vermin if you can't kill them all at once.

We don't know how easy it is for the Others to raise buried/rotten corpses. Many wights are horribly disfigured/ripped apart but there are no skeleton-like wight or completely rotten corpses. They certainly could raise reasonably fresh corpses, but I very much doubt that all the dead on the graveyards of Westeros are going to rise.

Hence the haste to get there in the immediate aftermath of large Southron battles, and as the Grey Plague is in full swing.

[Lord Varys]

50 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Hence the haste to get there in the immediate aftermath of large Southron battles, and as the Grey Plague is in full swing.

Once the Others have passed the Neck they most certainly will raise a lot of dead people.

I don't think the time line of events as they are unfolding will enable them to do that. I more inclined to believe that there won't be many people anywhere in Westeros to resist the onslaught of the Others after all the wars are over. I don't think we'll get all that many devastating battles. Aegon isn't going to butcher thousands of people, not to mention that not so many people usually die in conventional warfare. And the grey plague - if that's a thing it will take time to spread, both in the North and the South. It is not going to just infect everybody in the usual fortnight. The Pale Mare didn't yet claim everybody in Meereen and Slaver's Bay, either. And it already had half a novel to spread.

You can say what you want, but I'm going to eat my hat if Dany's armies are not going to play the main role in defending the Westerosi against the Others. They will be the only true fresh troops available.

[BalerionTheCat]

12 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Cersei is irrelevant. There are tons of other plots which have to be dealt with or at least reach a certain point before the Others can come down south. Both Euron and Aegon most likely would have been introduced if their ambitions and plans would be effectively be cut short by the Others.

Ned, Tywin, and Robert are much more to blame for the lack of preparation. They were in charge of Winterfell/KL much longer than Cersei.

I agree Ned is the first to blame. He should have listened to Gared. Robb should have gone North, not South like Osha was recommending. Everyone should have respected the NW and not use it as a Gulag. Things would have been different if Cersei was a different queen, a different mother. She is the last one to live, or so, of those in charge. And she has to bear the consequences.

The question is not time, Daenrys may still need a considerable time to return. It is, how far south the Ice and the Night will go? My guess is, all Westeros, including Dorne, all Essos (not much relevant), will be under it. Whatever they're used to, this winter is different.

[the trees have eyes]

 

On 14/07/2016 at 9:14 PM, Arya Targaryen said:

I'm trying to protect  the NW vows here.

The main purpose for those words was to keep the NW standing until the Other invasion comes. It's been 8000 years during which practically everything was forgotten about the Others. But the wording of the Oath is still the same. it is supposed to be a clue about the Others, even if it is long-forgotten knowledge. "I am the fire that burns against the cold". "I am the watcher on the Walls". They are supposed to watch, and burn them. They are supposed to warn the realm, and "wake the sleepers".

My guess is, that after the Long Night, a greenseer, probably Bran the Builder (or one of the children) saw the future, and knew the Others will return once - after a long-long time. That's why the Wall was built and the NW founded. They needed to make sure that NW will still stand, even though by then everybody will forget everything about the Others. and what would be the point of keeping a military organization with no purpose? They needed to make sure that the NW represents no threats towards the realm. They needed to stay at the Wall and wait. Otherwise there would be nobody who could "wake the sleepers", or who would remember the words.

For 8000 years the NW vows made sense. They did not interfere with the realm, so they survived. The vows' purpose was fulfilled. 

Right now, the Others are here. The NW knows it. The Wildlings know it. All the realm is supposed to know it - they just don't believe it. And at this point the whole purpose of the vows changes drastically. The words don't mean a thing any more. The NW survived until they needed to. Now they have to unite the realm, or do anything that might help against the threat. The vows dont give a guideline about how to do that. But they are not supposed to. They were there so the NW can survive until now. 

Well said.  I agree with this and your other posts pretty much in full.  The point of the NW vows is to allow the organisation to survive until it is needed.  That time has come and its arrival is a complete game changer.  What the NW and he LC need to do now is "wake the sleepers" and lead the organisation of the resistance agaisnt Doomsday.

Problem is of course that just as the NW have forgotten the true purpose of their existence - and I'm looking at you first and foremost Bowen Marsh - so too have all the lords and rulers of the 7K and they don't give a fig about stories of snarks and grumkins and the dead walking again.

So just when the realm(s) should mobilise and rally to the assistance of the NW they are actually in a period of civil war.  So what can the LC do?  Simple answer is use his initiative: 1) form alliances with the wildlings, 2) attempt to gain food and assistance from a powerful ally, Braavos, 3) accept whatever assistance he possibly can from lords inclined to help - oh hi Stannis and 4) attempt to form a grand alliance for the defense of the realms - NW, Wildlings, Northmen and Stannis's men.  I think Jon pretty much nails this.

I can't say strongly enough that those stuck in the Bowen Marsh mindset that political neutrality is the be and end all of the NW are missing the point of how the NW's role has to change given the arrival of the Others and how, with the 7K in civil war, the LC has to take a leadership role in forming an alliance that should be something he could have counted on.  Not interfering in politics is the means to survive until the NW is needed; once the NW is needed the LC needs to pull together whatever support he possibly can as fast as he can and if that means helping Stannis to unify the North and bring it to his aid in a common cause then this is a huge priority and responsibility, I would say even a duty.  Remember the NW was formed when there were no unified 7K and no Iron Throne so the idea of Marsh that the NW has to toe the line of a negligent KL and ignore Stannis does not help the NW achieve its purpose at all once it gets to the execution phase of its mission, particularly not when there are willing helpers at hand whether they be "traitors" or "rebels" to some.  Those labels are as irrelevant as that of "wildlings".  The game has changed completely.

It is also worth remembering, those who say the NW must remain out of politics, that this applies if the NW is a military order of some consequence able to affect the balance of power or seat / unseat minor or even significant lords.  It was in the past but the NW currently musters about 300, mostly builders and stewards after its disaster on the Fist of the First Men so it is, in military terms, no longer combat effective.  This is why their role in the conflict is largely symbolic and to act as a focal rallying point and why Jon is so on the money with the Wildling-Stannis-Northern coalition.  The fight against the Others needs men afer all.

The only point I disagree on is re Arya and Daeron.  This was murder pure and simple.  He or she who swings the sword / wields the knife has a duty to look into the accused's eyes and hear their last words and decide then maybe they don't deserve to die.  Having heard Daeron tell Sam that Matthis Rowan's daughter opened her bedroom window for him "naked as her name day" but "under her father's eyes named it rape" we know that Daeron was innocent of what he was accused of and is subject to a miscarriage of justice.  Which brings us neatly back to how binding vows are or how much of an obligation there is to remain true to them.  Daeron was probably given the choice of castration or joining the NW.  Unsurprisingly he chose the NW.  Equally unsurprisingly once he has his freedom back in Braavos he decides he likes it and that as he is not in fact a criminal and his oath was extracted from him under duress it does not apply.  Well, his lawyer would make that case for him!  I think if Arya had heard this story she would or at least should have stayed her hand and that her execution was not properly conducted, with an interrogation beforehand to establish the facts, and amounts to murder.

On 14/07/2016 at 9:45 PM, Lord Varys said:

@Arya Targaryen

As to the rights of the Lord Commander:

Multiple Lord Commanders interfering with the realms of men have been put down by those realms. They don't have the right to change the established rules. Declare war on the realms of men is treason. And Jon Snow did just that when he declared war on Ramsay Bolton.

You are also wrong about the vow of the NW. It says 'I will father no children' not 'I'll not marry and have children'. Last I looked you can father children on a woman whether you are married or not. Just by having intercourse (unless you use contraceptives or are sterile). But even then the intercourse could be seen as the act of fathering children.

The NW oath is an oath of celibacy. If it were not you would swear to never marry.

By the way: I don't like Jon's assassination and I'm pissed that he was effectively as stupid as Robb. Was it too much to hope that he would have learned something from the fate of his half-brother?

But when has the realm turned on the NW before with demands that cannnot be met? 

Your logic followed to its conclusion is that the NW broke its neutrality the moment Stannis turned up and saved them because the NW was then involved in the political calculations of the realm (and of a rebel).  Remember that Jon was just a common brother at this point and that Stannis was given guestright in CB by someone other than Jon who was not elected LC until later.  Neutrality is gone the minute Stannis turns up and there is no getting it back.

I don't agree about the NW vow of celibacy.  If this is truly the case then generations of LCs and countless brothers have been guilty of breaking it by tolerating Mole Town and enjoying privelge card memberships there.  In any case it is clear that the intent of the oath is to prevent men from being half in and half out of the NW and thus being conflicted between familiy and the inheritance rights of their children and the attendant political alliances and struggles.  Fathering no children is the same as hanging up the family shield and turning in the house colours for the black; it signifies you belong to the NW and have left your family, inheritance and the possibility of claims for any progeny behind as surely as the later institution of the KG.  Nothing about celibacy which is very much a religious concept rather than a military requirement and indeed this is why you have such roaring good trade at Mole Town.

I did groan a bit and compare Robb's fate with Jon's, the same dismissal of the warning behaviour of their direwolves, the same trusting nature despite the disagreements (read Frey for Thorne), the blow from an unexpected source (read Bolton for Marsh) but GRRM likes to bring his characters low at the seeming moment of their triumph.  And I'm not convniced he's dead at end of ADWD (Show is irrelevant).

21 hours ago, Springwatch said:

The problem is that when you break the rules, you break the system a bit. Shake up the rules, you shake the system. This is magnified a hundred times if you're the actual leader.

 

While I agree a bit with this idea that military discipline must be preserved bear in mind there are only about 300 NW men, most of whom are not frontline fighting men so the NW can dissolve at this point (indeed I think it effectively has and we will see that to be the consequence of the ides of Marsh) just as long as it has started the "waking the sleepers" and gathering the real fighting strength of the North / 7K together as Jon has begun to do.

And 1) Jon had to respond to Ramsey's demands in some way: as the demads were impossible to meet they had to be met head on so the idea of leading a wildling army to not strain the NW's loyalty too much is a good one.

2) Jon has not deserted and I don't buy this argument at all: he is acting as LC making careful preparations to garrison the castles, launch a rescue operation at Hardhome, pull in the IB and Braavos to assist and confronted with the pink letter he decides to meet the challenge head on.  We have no idea what orders he would have given to the NW when he planned to leave or who he would have deputised to temporarily lead in his absence because Marsh ambushed him before he got to do this.  The idea (not yours btw!) that he simply intended to abandon command and leave without any instructions or contingency orders is a rather bizarre one and has very litle merit.

21 hours ago, kissdbyfire said:

The castle Jon returned to was far different from the one he’d left that morning. For as long as he had known it, Castle Black had been a place of silence and shadows, where a meagre company of men in black moved like ghosts amongst the ruins of a fortress that had once housed ten times their numbers. All that had changed. Lights now shone through windows where Jon Snow had never seen lights shine before. Strange voices echoed down the yards, and free folk were coming and going along icy paths that had only known the black boots of crows for years. Outside the old Flint Barracks, he came across a dozen men pelting one another with snow. Playing, Jon thought in astonishment, grown men playing like children, throwing snowballs the way Bran and Arya once did, and Robb and me before them.”

Indeed, indeed.  The NW has lit the beacon and now is gathering more fighting strength than seen for hundreds of years.  And Jon is trying to draw in more.  All good unless you are the Bowen.

[Lord Varys]

@the trees have eyes

George actually tells us that Mormont was relatively lax in enforcing the celibacy part of the vow. His stand on whoring in Mole's Town isn't necessarily the standard every Lord Commander upheld during the history of the Night's Watch. After all, the Wall at this point is just a bunch of criminals, basically. They are not good men. Keeping them in line is much more difficult than the standards that were upheld when actual idealists joined the NW.

By the way, there is no hint that the Mole's Town brothel existed throughout the entire history of the NW. It is easy to see this as a symptom of the general decline of the Watch that whores actually got enough clients up there to make themselves a living. That may not always have been the case.

The oath does include chastity. Fathering no children means no vaginal intercourse. Not 'I'll not marry'. Bastards are children you fathered, too, after all.

You cannot reinterpret the vow in this way. Remember Maester Aemon's reflections on the meaning of the NW oath. You are not supposed to love. But you can love a whore and a mistress as much as your own legal wife. Just as you can love your bastards as much as your non-existing trueborn children. And one assumes that some of the black brothers have bastards from some of the Mole's Town women and there might even be long-term relationships involving them.

In general thanking Stannis for saving the NW and extending guest right (but only guest right) to him is fine, I guess (although the Iron Throne could still interpret this as treason). But actually helping Stannis' war effort in the North was definitely treason. That begins with Jon advising Stannis on the situation in the North and extends to him giving him scouts to lead him to the mountain clans.

And Ramsay's terms could actually be met. Jon could have delivered Melisandre, Selyse, and Shireen to Ramsay, and Theon and Jeyne, too, should he have had them.