Will Cersei's trial even happen?

[dsug]

Kevan Lannister was really the only person in the Red Keep with any authority and control over his crazy ass niece Cersei. Now that he's dead, what's making Cersei even go through with this trial? People will say "Oh Mace will make her." Id like to see Mace Tyrell make Cersei do anything lol. They hate each other, and have zero control over what the other does. 

So hear me out. Rather than risk her life and be judged by the filthy peasants and foolish Septons championed by the High Sparrow, she could just kill them before that time ever comes. 

Just an idea, but I could see Cersei refusing to comply and just attacking them. It's foolish and short sighted, which is exactly what our Queen Regent is known for. 

So whaddaya think? Any chance of it playing out like this? 

[Raisin' Bran]

1 hour ago, dsug said:

Just an idea, but I could see Cersei refusing to comply and just attacking them. It's foolish and short sighted, which is exactly what our Queen Regent is known for. 

She is crazy, but she is not Joffrey. She wanted to avoid war in AGoT, but the king took Lord Eddard's head off anyway.

I can entertain this notion with the idea that she is significantly more unstable now than she was when Joff first took power.

But her walk appears to have changed her demeanor. I am leaning toward a slightly more circumspect queen than before.

[daccu65]

13 minutes ago, Raisin(g) Bran 2 Greenseer said:

But her walk appears to have changed her demeanor. I am leaning toward a slightly more circumspect queen than before.

True, but that was when she believed that she had lost all authority.  Now, Kevan is gone and she's back to being the one with control over Tommen.

I have no doubt that she was ready to turn the raising of her son over to a good man, Kevan, and return to Casterly Rock and fade from the public spotlight.  Now, however, Kevan is gone, Tommen's reins have been shoved back into her hands and she has some sort of super-human abomination to act as her champion in an upcoming trial by combat.  If Ser Strong defeats whomever the church can come up with, she's going to have a great deal of authority and a large number of grudges to settle.

The church humbled and humiliated her in front of the entire city.  Is she going to want revenge on both the church and the city?  She will probably think that Tyrion murdered Kevan...and that Bronn is still helping Tyrion.  Will she turn her wrath on Bronn?  If we can trust Varys' monologue to the dying Kevan, this is exactly what Varys wants...an angry and vindictive Cersei with the reins of power.

 

[Dorian Martell]

Of course she wins. she has an undead gregor clegane on her side. Literally anything the faith sends to fight it will be torn apart 

  

[daccu65]

50 minutes ago, Dorian Martell said:

Of course she wins. she has an undead gregor clegane on her side. Literally anything the faith sends to fight it will be torn apart 

What happens after the trial?  Do you see her going on some sort of paranoia-fueled revenge-spree?

 

[aryagonnakill#2]

I think your confusing the book & show, book Mace can make book Cersei do anything he wants at this exactly point in time.

[Dorian Martell]

1 minute ago, daccu65 said:

What happens after the trial?  Do you see her going on some sort of paranoia-fueled revenge-spree?

Not sure, but according to the mercy chapter, Swyft is in Bravos treating with the Iron Bank. Swyft is a Lannister man, so it is reasonable to assume she won her trial and has resumed some power 

[Raisin' Bran]

1 hour ago, daccu65 said:

The church humbled and humiliated her in front of the entire city.  Is she going to want revenge on both the church and the city?  She will probably think that Tyrion murdered Kevan...and that Bronn is still helping Tyrion.  Will she turn her wrath on Bronn?  If we can trust Varys' monologue to the dying Kevan, this is exactly what Varys wants...an angry and vindictive Cersei with the reins of power.

So you think that Cersei is going to jump to Varys' puppet strings no matter what? She is smart to an extent (that does not mean she is highly intelligent), she is vicious, and she has been extremely humbled recently. Things may not go how Varys plans at all.

2 minutes ago, Dorian Martell said:

Not sure, but according to the mercy chapter, Swyft is in Bravos treating with the Iron Bank. Swyft is a Lannister man, so it is reasonable to assume she won her trial and has resumed some power 

Wasn't it the plan to send Swyft to Braavos before Kevan and Pycel kicked the bucket? Mace could have easily followed through with that plan irregardless of the outcome of the trial.

[CJ McLannister]

She fully believes that her champion is literally invincible.  Avoiding the trial makes her look guilty.  Winning the trial confirms her innocence before all.  

Plus, if she backs out, she could leave the door for Margaery to back out, which goes against her agenda.

[daccu65]

16 minutes ago, Raisin(g) Bran 2 Greenseer said:

So you think that Cersei is going to jump to Varys' puppet strings no matter what? She is smart to an extent (that does not mean she is highly intelligent), she is vicious, and she has been extremely humbled recently. Things may not go how Varys plans at all.

I don't think that she realizes anyone is pulling her strings.  To be honest, she got into this mess with the faith because she wanted to use the faith as a tool against Margery.  To the best of my knowledge, the only things that Margery did were to start to influence Tommen, court the affections of the smallfolk and suggest that the Ironborn attack on the Reach be dealt with harshly.  In other words, Cersei overreacts to disagreement.  Now, she's going to find herself wielding Tommen's authority and she has; what she thinks, is an invincible champion to back her during any trial by combat.  

When she learned that Jon had become the Lord Commander of the Night's Watch, she started making plans to assassinate him...for doing nothing more than being a (illegitimate) Stark.  Now that she has power again, do you think she's just going to forgive and forget the church or the smallfolk that mocked her?  Maybe she will, but I don't see her stopping and considering that someone may be playing her.

 

[Raisin' Bran]

11 minutes ago, daccu65 said:

I don't think that she realizes anyone is pulling her strings.  To be honest, she got into this mess with the faith because she wanted to use the faith as a tool against Margery.  To the best of my knowledge, the only things that Margery did were to start to influence Tommen, court the affections of the smallfolk and suggest that the Ironborn attack on the Reach be dealt with harshly.  In other words, Cersei overreacts to disagreement.  Now, she's going to find herself wielding Tommen's authority and she has; what she thinks, is an invincible champion to back her during any trial by combat.  

When she learned that Jon had become the Lord Commander of the Night's Watch, she started making plans to assassinate him...for doing nothing more than being a (illegitimate) Stark.  Now that she has power again, do you think she's just going to forgive and forget the church or the smallfolk that mocked her?  Maybe she will, but I don't see her stopping and considering that someone may be playing her.

All I am saying is that Cersei may have changed a bit and will not act as Varys had planned. Yes she is upset about the imprisonment, and one can interpolate her behavior based on past actions (she never forgets a slight). But Cersei has never been taken down publicly before, some would say it was an extremely traumatic experience. Those experiences have the tendency of changing people's behavior.

But that change may just be to become even more reckless than before. We shall see.

[finger]

It's hard to know what Grrm has in mind.

Bear in mind that Margaery is bound to be judged as well. My guess is that Lord Tarly won't suffer that shit, and he'll put a definite end to those sparrows' follies... well, and the sparrows themselves, if you know what I mean.

[dsug]

A request for trial by combat can be denied, correct?

what if the high Septon throws a giant monkey wrench at Cersei and denies a trial by combat. That would essentially void any "easy out" for her 

[daccu65]

55 minutes ago, Raisin(g) Bran 2 Greenseer said:

We shall see.

This is so, and I'm looking forward to it.

 

[Nevets]

41 minutes ago, dsug said:

A request for trial by combat can be denied, correct?

what if the high Septon throws a giant monkey wrench at Cersei and denies a trial by combat. That would essentially void any "easy out" for her 

I don't think it can.  When Tyrion demanded trial by combat, he didn't have any concerns about it being denied, despite the fact that his conviction in a regular trial was a foregone conclusion.  I also think Cersei will go though with it because she is convinced she will win with UnGregor.

[Sigella]

4 hours ago, dsug said:

Kevan Lannister was really the only person in the Red Keep with any authority and control over his crazy ass niece Cersei. Now that he's dead, what's making Cersei even go through with this trial? People will say "Oh Mace will make her." Id like to see Mace Tyrell make Cersei do anything lol. They hate each other, and have zero control over what the other does. 

So hear me out. Rather than risk her life and be judged by the filthy peasants and foolish Septons championed by the High Sparrow, she could just kill them before that time ever comes. 

Just an idea, but I could see Cersei refusing to comply and just attacking them. It's foolish and short sighted, which is exactly what our Queen Regent is known for. 

So whaddaya think? Any chance of it playing out like this? 

I think she'll burn the entire city mad-king-style.

[Dorian Martell]

1 hour ago, Raisin(g) Bran 2 Greenseer said:

So you think that Cersei is going to jump to Varys' puppet strings no matter what? She is smart to an extent (that does not mean she is highly intelligent), she is vicious, and she has been extremely humbled recently. Things may not go how Varys plans at all.

Wasn't it the plan to send Swyft to Braavos before Kevan and Pycel kicked the bucket? Mace could have easily followed through with that plan irregardless of the outcome of the trial.

Yes, but there is reference to the queen in the chapter and her not being very nice at all. And Swyft was a lannister man. The Tyrells wanted Garth the gross as master of coin but Cersei said no. It is reasonable to assume that if she was completely out of power, her man would not be treating in Bravos 

 

[The Prince Of Tatters]

I think it'll happen, I think that every man and his dog can see that Robert Strong is going to come out on top v whoever is pitted against him

[Raisin' Bran]

10 minutes ago, Dorian Martell said:

Yes, but there is reference to the queen in the chapter and her not being very nice at all. And Swyft was a lannister man. The Tyrells wanted Garth the gross as master of coin but Cersei said no. It is reasonable to assume that if she was completely out of power, her man would not be treating in Bravos 

Thanks for reminding me that Mace and the Tyrell clan wanted Garth for MOC. Now I can see how you draw your conclusion.

But Cersei wanted to defer the loans from the Iron Bank altogether. Is she now seeing logic? And if she is seeing logic, what other "non-crazy" things will she do that Varys did not plan for?

Also, Swyft was already making preparations to sail to Braavos from KL. It would be extremely inefficient to wait for Garth, who is still in the Reach, to travel to KL then go to Braavos. Meanwhile, Swyft is ready almost immediately.

[Sensenmenn]

Is it possible that the arya chapter took place before cersei was imprisoned.