Stannis wrote the Pink Letter

[Jasta11]

2 hours ago, three-eyed monkey said:

A writer should know what each character wants or desires as that is essentially what moves the story forward. That's just a basic principal of storytelling. Let the reader know what the characters want, then let the reader know what opposes the characters attaining what they want, and the ensuing conflict is what creates the drama. Once the conflict is set up the characters usually try, fail, try again and succeed, or sometimes try, fail, try again and fail again. GRRM has clearly told us what Stannis wants in the text, Jon Stark, Lord of Winterfell and King Stannis' Warden of the North. He has told us what opposes Stannis getting what he wants, Jon's vows. Stannis has already tried, he has failed, we should really see him try again. I believe the pink letter is Stannis trying again, and subsequently failing again but driving the story on nonetheless.

The stabbing, btw, is the result of Marsh's try/fail cycle. He has stated what he wants in terms of letting the wildlings through the Wall and remaining loyal to the crown, Jon has opposed him, Marsh has tried several times to disuade Jon and failed to stop him, but in Jon XIII he succeeds, driving the story forward. This pattern is repeated with almost every character, not just in ASoIaF but in most of the books you ever read. The art of good storytelling is in how the characters quest for their desires collide and change the direction of the story, like they did in Jon XIII.

I agree that deceit is probably not Stannis' preferred method. He did ask first, and even hinted at the threat of turning him over to those in the Night's Watch that wanted him to face trial as a turncloak, so the soft approach was his preferred method. But it failed so he must try a different hawk, and as you agree, he is not above deception. And I don't think it is that elaborate a scheme really, it's a forged letter designed to get Jon to break his vows and come to Winterfell. Stannis may not be the most charming of characters, but I think he has a number of things in common with Jon and understands what makes him tick better than you give him credit for. I would have to say the same for Mance, but I don't think Ramsay or Roose really know Jon at all.

I'm not saying characters have to be omniscient or always succeed. Obviously Stannis isn't above blunders, but I don't think he would go for the elaborate reverse psychology angle (with the numerous risks involved) when just telling Jon that his sister is in immediate danger is a much simpler, less risky, straight-up, and honest option. Whereas both Mance and the Boltons are more devious characters who are fit this modus operandi far better.

Not to mention Jon's reaction to finding all of Stannis's lies makes the Letter a pretty counter-productive concept if he wants an ally in the North, but in Stannis's defense here he's not a people person so I'll pass on this particular argument. 

[Lost Melnibonean]

38 minutes ago, three-eyed monkey said:

No more blatant a lie than the burning of Mance.

I agree that he likely authorized the burning of Rattleshirt, but we don't know for sure that he did. 

[three-eyed monkey]

1 minute ago, Jasta11 said:

Not to mention Jon's reaction to finding all of Stannis's lies makes the Letter a pretty counter-productive concept if he wants an ally in the North, but in Stannis's defense here he's not a people person so I'll pass on this particular argument. 

But Jon would never know they are Stannis' lies, they could just be Ramsay's lies, and if Ramsay is dead by the time Jon gets to Winterfell then who is to say otherwise. Tybald maybe, but he could be easily silenced.

[three-eyed monkey]

1 minute ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

I agree that he likely authorized the burning of Rattleshirt, but we don't know for sure that he did. 

According to Mel, Mance owes his life to Jon because it was Jon's sage counsel that persuaded Stannis not to burn Mance.

According to Mance, Stannis did not burn the wrong man, he burned the man he had to burn.

That is pretty compelling.

[bemused]

@three-eyed monkey 

Naturally, I agree that Stannis wrote the letter.. My own scenario differs from yours, but you do make a good case.(Way back when, I think you brought it home to me that Stannis would, of course, have seen Asha's letter.)

I agree "my bride and my Reek" indubitably comes from Theon, so Stannis trusted his word on that. Stannis has reason to accept Theon's opinion on other matters as well, e.g.  the numbers of men Roose has, how many he will send out and the inevitability that Ramsay will be following the Freys and White Harbour men. (I don't think there's a chance in hell that either Bolton's method would be to wait for the outcome of the battle and then write Jon a letter if "Arya" had not been recovered. They would be on her trail ASAP.)

And I think the business about Mance and the spearwives is based on two things ... 1) Stannis' being able to identify Mance (combining Theon's story with his own knowledge) and ... 2)  based on Theon's expectations of what their fate was likely to be. This is made plain through Theon's thoughts during the escape chapter. From the outset, he thinks ... This is madness. Hopeless, foolish, doomed.
Then, during his confrontation with Rowan, he thinks ...  Foolish woman. He might well be a broken thing, but Theon still wore a dagger. It would have been a simple thing to slide it out and drive it down between her shoulder blades. That much he was still capable of, missing teeth and broken teeth and all. It might even be a kindness—a quicker, cleaner end than the one she and her sisters would face when Ramsay caught them.

When he caught them, not if...Their capture and flaying is a reasonable assumption on Theon's part ... but he's unaware of anything that would enable any of them to elude Ramsay, even for a while. E.g. - He doesn't know about Mance's ruby, or the story of Wex's escape (or that "Myrtle" may be a man) ... Stannis, knowing of the glamour, might assume Mance has the ruby with him, but would have no idea of anything that might aid any of the spearwives... Even with the ruby, Mance would be "caged" in WF, and the spearwives would appear to be doomed.

I'm glad that you mention Stannis' letter to Jon. It's left out of discussion too often IMO. We don't know the actual form of Ramsay's first letter to Jon (even the main body of that letter may have been written by a maester), and I agree that the form of the pink letter probably takes the same form as the letter from Stannis. .. Still, there's another clue in the body of Stannis' letter that I think argues against your theory, namely... You and your brothers must hold the Wall until I can return. ... and an additional hint in Stannis' signature ... It was signed, in a different hand,
Done in the Light of Lord, under the sign and seal of Stannis of House Baratheon, the First of His Name, King of the Andals, the Rhoynar, and the First Men, Lord of the Seven Kingdoms, and Protector of the Realm.

Stannis styles himself as "protector of the realm" and he takes the title seriously .. He and Jon both see the wisdom in allowing the wildlings through the wall (even if it wasn't originally for all the same reasons)and both recognise the prime enemy.

Stannis gave Mance to Jon as an asset in dealing with the free folk and fighting the others. With that asset in enemy hands (and possibly dead) it's even more vital to protecting the realm (not to mention protecting his heir), that Jon remain at the wall. If Stannis still plans to take up residence at the Nightfort (and that still would make sense, while he's trying to build his army), I don't think he would want Selyse, Shireen, et al sent/brought to WF, which is not going to be his seat, in any case.

Since we know the battle in the snow (and perhaps another inside WF) was originally intended for ADWD, that means there must also be at least another chapter from probably Asha's, Theon's or Bran's POV, describing the events that take place before the battle, at the tree. (The Wull and Artos Flint are waiting to see Stannis after Asha, and will no doubt repeat her request.) Theon first notices daylight returning when Justin Massey leaves the watchtower. There are still hours before he's to leave at mid-day, and his departure could be slightly delayed, depending on developments ... I think that the PL suggests correctly that both "Arya" and Theon are being sent to Jon with Justin's party.

There's a bit of "colour" in Reek II that's worth considering ... ...Reek followed with the other dogs at Lord Ramsay’s heels when his lordship strode forth to greet his father. When the rider in the dark armor removed his helm, however, the face beneath was not one that Reek knew. Ramsay’s smile curdled at the sight, and anger flashed across his face. “What is this, some mockery?”
“Just caution,” whispered Roose Bolton, as he emerged from behind the curtains of the enclosed wagon.

If Ramsay arrived at the scene of battle to be shown a body in Stannis' armour, complete with Lightbringer, he would accept it. Stannis' face is not one that he knows, and in such case, there would be "some mockery" involved. Furthermore, finding that "Arya" and Reek are gone, the hunter in him would follow, hoping to recover them before they reached their destination. Away from Roose's more subtle reasoning and restraining hand (under which he's been chafing since Roose's return), he would never hold back from attacking CB if he thought his quarry was there.

Stannis has reason to have a good opinion of Jon's strategic thinking. He would know (as do we, from ASoS, Jon VII) that Jon, if forewarned of an attack from the south, would realise his best defense would be to waylay it before it arrived: 

 The thing to do would be to take the attack to them, he thought. With fifty rangers well mounted, we could cut them apart on the road. 

As well, we have the benefit of Jon's musings while riding south with Mance in ASoS, Jon II :

The host moved but slowly, burdened as it was by all the wildlings’ herds and children and mean little treasures, and the snows had slowed its progress even more. <snip>

And somewhere close ahead, Jon knew, the Fist of the First Men loomed above the trees, home to three hundred black brothers of the Night’s Watch, armed, mounted, and waiting. <snip>

The Old Bear will go through them like an axe through porridge. And when that happened, Mance must give chase with his center, to try and blunt the threat.

 It really isn't difficult to see how Jon could put lessons from both these examples to use in confronting an approaching Ramsay, of course taking the differences in details into account. To me, it's notable that neither of those scenarios could come to pass because, a. Jon had neither the men or the horses in one case and, b. because of the attack of the others.. but because they're in Jon's thoughts, they may form a subtle foreshadowing of what is to come.

Numbers ?.. Hard to pin down.. I think Roose would want Ramsay to take as few men as possible (for Roose's own security),but that still could be several hundred men. ...Stannis doesn't know about Tormund's people, but he knows he left Jon 300 wildling men of prime fighting age and condition, not counting spearwives (out of 1500 who bent the knee). Using the same ratio for Tormund's people and counting spearwives, Jon could have 900-1000 fighters, but he couldn't use them all, some would still be needed elsewhere. All the leaders were to be in the shieldhall, but not all their followers.I would guess say, 300 - 400 should be easily available and maybe something more. All things considered, Jon might not be as vastly outnumbered as some seem to suppose.

Timing ?... I suggest the raven would have been sent from the field as soon as the matter of the tree was settled. Something has to give Stannis the idea that a raven could fly to CB. At very latest, it would be sent when Ramsay follows on after "Arya", well before Stannis can make his way to WF (giving Jon the most time possible to prepare). And I agree that the second raven would be sent to Roose, claiming victory and Stannis' demise.

Over the years, many people have asked why Stannis wouldn't just tell Jon everything outright.. I think that's a clear sign that he hasn't taken WF yet and doesn't want anything to upset his "dead Stannis" ploy. However, he does nudge Jon to check out the truth of his death with Mel, hoping Jon will learn he's alive. If he had already taken WF, then of course, he could have been more open with Jon.

I agree that Jon would still be Stannis' #1 choice for Lord of WF if possible, but not at the cost of the safety of the realm.

There are two pretty strong conclusions I've reached on other questions that affect (or connect to) this topic...

1. Thorne is hiding out in the wormways at CB and leading/manipulating the conspirators. In light of this, looking at the PL, I feel Thorne is the character it sounds most like and the conspirators would very much like to offload any of Stannis' court, including "his" prisoners, Val and the baby. So, I think the letter has been forged a second time before being delivered to Jon.

2. Roose will be overthrown by the Northmen inside Winterfell, with help (including Benjen) entering through the crypts. Whatever plans Stannis may have had for the lordship WF, will fall into the "tried, but failed" category, or take an ironic turn, if Jon should become Lord of WF (or the equivalent) but not by Stannis' grant. 

[Lost Melnibonean]

42 minutes ago, three-eyed monkey said:

According to Mel, Mance owes his life to Jon because it was Jon's sage counsel that persuaded Stannis not to burn Mance.

According to Mance, Stannis did not burn the wrong man, he burned the man he had to burn.

That is pretty compelling.

You are preaching to the choir. But there is room for doubt. It took me a couple of reads before I realized it. 

[Jasta11]

39 minutes ago, three-eyed monkey said:

But Jon would never know they are Stannis' lies, they could just be Ramsay's lies, and if Ramsay is dead by the time Jon gets to Winterfell then who is to say otherwise. Tybald maybe, but he could be easily silenced.

If Ramsay, Theon and Tybald are dead/missing, yeah the lie holds up, but those are no less than three ifs. I don't think it in Stannis's character to plan for such details anyway, but I passed on this argument.

Another thing; I know the timelines are a bit screwy between the end of ADwD and the beginning of TWoW, but to me it stills seems a bit of a stretch. The Ides of Marsh happen at the end of the fifth book, but Stannis hasn't even met Theon yet (who holds the crucial information allowing him to write the letter. We also know, from the sample chapter, that his first meeting with him doesn't involve sharing this information. So basically, sometime after the first Theon chapter, Stannis needs to: come up with the idea, question Theon quite extensively on what he knows, write the letter with Tybald (which includes exotic materials to keep up the appearance of a Bolton message) and have the letter travel from around Winterfell to the Wall. And that all happens before the tail end of ADWD.

I know GRRM intentionally keeps timelines a bit murky, but that's still a bit much to me. 

[Lost Melnibonean]

7 minutes ago, Jasta11 said:

If Ramsay, Theon and Tybald are dead/missing, yeah the lie holds up, but those are no less than three ifs. I don't think it in Stannis's character to plan for such details anyway, but I passed on this argument.

Another thing; I know the timelines are a bit screwy between the end of ADwD and the beginning of TWoW, but to me it stills seems a bit of a stretch. The Ides of Marsh happen at the end of the fifth book, but Stannis hasn't even met Theon yet (who holds the crucial information allowing him to write the letter. We also know, from the sample chapter, that his first meeting with him doesn't involve sharing this information. So basically, sometime after the first Theon chapter, Stannis needs to: come up with the idea, question Theon quite extensively on what he knows, write the letter with Tybald (which includes exotic materials to keep up the appearance of a Bolton message) and have the letter travel from around Winterfell to the Wall. And that all happens before the tail end of ADWD.

I know GRRM intentionally keeps timelines a bit murky, but that's still a bit much to me. 

When he released Theon, Winds, the George said that the spoiler chapter preceded Jon XIII, Dance, and suggested that the reader should infer that from the context of the events and dialogue described. 

[Jasta11]

1 minute ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

When he released Theon, Winds, the George said that the spoiler chapter preceded Jon XIII, Dance, and suggested that the reader should infer that from the context of the events and dialogue described. 

I get that, but the idea of the letter doesn't even begin to show up in the sample chapter. And I doubt Stannis had the idea and actually wrote the letter in an afternoon. I know ravens are fast, but not that fast either.

I dunno. It's not a knockout argument, but the logistics are kinda screwy to me.

[bemused]

4 minutes ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

When he released Theon, Winds, the George said that the spoiler chapter preceded Jon XIII, Dance, and suggested that the reader should infer that from the context of the events and dialogue described.

Scooped me.. .. George has also said Winds picks up right where Dance leaves off .. which might clarify a lot.

[three-eyed monkey]

7 hours ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

You are preaching to the choir. But there is room for doubt. It took me a couple of reads before I realized it. 

Yeah, I accept that. A lot of people think it was Mel's doing and Stannis was kept out of the loop. But Mel and Mance say otherwise, so the notion that Stannis would not partake in such a deception is clearly inaccurate in my opinion.

 

7 hours ago, Jasta11 said:

I get that, but the idea of the letter doesn't even begin to show up in the sample chapter. And I doubt Stannis had the idea and actually wrote the letter in an afternoon. I know ravens are fast, but not that fast either.

I dunno. It's not a knockout argument, but the logistics are kinda screwy to me.

All I can say about the timeline is this, it would take a raven about a day to bring the letter to Castle Black given the distance and using the sort of distance a carrier pigeon could cover in a day. Perhaps a second day would be nessicary if ravens were significantly slower than pigeons or the bad weather slowed them. Allowing for that this theory really just needs the Theon chapter to take place a day or two before Jon XIII. Given what GRRM said, I think this is likely. Remember, Theon I was bumped out of ADwD and into TWoW, so originally it may have been before Jon XIII. 

As I said, I think the idea began to formulate in Stannis head when he read the letter Ramsay sent to Asha.

The Bastard of Bolton?" asked Qarl, beside her. 

"Ramsay Bolton, Lord of Winterfell, he signs himself. But there are other names as well." Lady Dustin, Lady Cerwyn, and four Ryswells had appended their own signatures beneath his. Beside them was drawn a crude giant, the mark of some Umber.

Obviously not the Lord of Winterfell Stannis would like, but he must have wondered how Jon would feel about seeing that signature with that title. Of course the pink letter added the word trueborn, an extra bit of needle. So the idea was cooking all through the long march to Winterfell in my opinion.

Theon arrives at Stannis camp in Asha's last chapter of ADwD, and starts blurting out everything about his ordeal, flying off the wall, Abel and the washerwomen who were not really washerwomen, etc. When we next see Theon he is chained up in the tower. We don't know if he has given Stannis his account of the escape from Winterfell already but presumably that was one of the first things he and Jeyne were asked about. Theon recognises the King's voice in the very first line of Theon I, which indicates that they had spoken already in my opinion.

Given that Theon knew the washerwomen were wildlings, and Stannis knew Mance was alive, Abel's identity would not be too difficult to puzzle out, a singer whose description matches Mance. And as @bemused once pointed out, Mance, who spoke with Stannis for hours, is fond of telling tales of his infiltration of Winterfell. But once Stannis makes that connection, then by the time Theon I ends he has everything he needs to write the pink letter, including a more or less direct quote from Theon that appears in the letter.

So the letter was written and sent sometime after the Theon chapter, which chronologically is somewhere between a minimum of 1 or 2 days, based on the flight time of a Raven to Castle Black, and a maximum of about 3 weeks, based on the travel time Massey's party would need to reach Castle Black, before Jon XIII.

This 3 week window means that it is hard to know if the letter was sent before or after Stannis took Winterfell, if indeed he does end up taking Winterfell.

[three-eyed monkey]

@bemused The Northmen might well turn on Roose but I fear they will also turn on Stannis before long, as a consequence of him not succeeding with his plan for Jon. That depends on how it plays out with Davos and Rickon perhaps, and other relatively unknown factors like the full extent of the northern conspiracy. I like Stannis but I don't think he's making it out of the North alive.

And you know I like your theory on Thorne and the wormways, although I don't believe the letter was altered or switched, just read. 

[aryagonnakill#2]

21 hours ago, three-eyed monkey said:

I'm not suggesting the Boltons attack Castle Black. But I don't think they would allow Jeyne and Theon to get to the Wall either. Quite a distance for a couple of frail people on foot. The very reason they are sending forces into the field is because they now need to move against Stannis as his camp is the most likely place for them to find immediate refuge. My point is, the Boltons have a minimum of two weeks before she could even reach the Wall and I don't see them advertising the fact that they lost her so readily in advance. They would at least try to hunt her down, which is essentially what they are doing.

And as I outlined in the OP, I think Stannis has clear motive so the irony is lost on me.

 

They wouldn't be on foot anymore if Stannis sent them on to the wall, they would be on horseback "surefooted Garoons" with mountain clansmen as guides.  After the delay caused by the pits outside WF, whatever delay Umbers men provide, the fact that southern heavy horse have a much harder time moving in the snow than the northern horse who even wear snow shoes, whatever amount of time the actual battle would take, and the time it would take to search bodies and regroup, Theon and Jeyne would be long gone.

[rotting sea cow]

14 hours ago, bemused said:

 

I agree "my bride and my Reek" indubitably comes from Theon,

Just to point it out that Theon is echoing Ramsay thinking with that sentence. He might have said the same to others, e.g. Mance

Quote

He doesn't know about Mance's ruby, or the story of Wex's escape (or that "Myrtle" may be a man) ...

That Myrtle could be a man escaped completely from my repeated readings. Could you please give some hints?

Quote

Stannis, knowing of the glamour, might assume Mance has the ruby with him, but would have no idea of anything that might aid any of the spearwives... Even with the ruby, Mance would be "caged" in WF, and the spearwives would appear to be doomed.

One of the theories of the Pink Letter is that Mance wrote it glamoured as Ramsay and is Ramsay who is caged. I like that theory only for that. 

Quote

1. Thorne is hiding out in the wormways at CB and leading/manipulating the conspirators. In light of this, looking at the PL, I feel Thorne is the character it sounds most like and the conspirators would very much like to offload any of Stannis' court, including "his" prisoners, Val and the baby. So, I think the letter has been forged a second time before being delivered to Jon.

You know, I'm in the camp of those believing that the letter was forged at the Wall, upon arrival of a similar letter from Ramsay. I also considered Stannis as possible author however, although I consider it less likely. But my speculations are similar, except that Stannis is sitting at WF victorious but weakened by the battle, with no enough provisions for a second march. Ramsay took the remaining food and Dreadfort men to mount an assault on Castle Black to 'recover his bride and Reek'. Stannis is warning Jon about that and commit him to protect his wife, the princess and the babe, etc.  He adds as a PS, WTF was Mance doing here with six spearwives? Did Mel have something to do ? or something along these lines... Ah... then the letter was forged to frame Jon, have an excuse to kill him and with his head placate Ramsay.

 

[three-eyed monkey]

3 hours ago, aryagonnakill#2 said:

They wouldn't be on foot anymore if Stannis sent them on to the wall, they would be on horseback "surefooted Garoons" with mountain clansmen as guides.  After the delay caused by the pits outside WF, whatever delay Umbers men provide, the fact that southern heavy horse have a much harder time moving in the snow than the northern horse who even wear snow shoes, whatever amount of time the actual battle would take, and the time it would take to search bodies and regroup, Theon and Jeyne would be long gone.

My point is that once Reek and Jeyne escaped, the Boltons set about getting them back and did not just accept that they got away. That essentially is what they are doing by marching on Stannis.

We are told that Deepwood to Winterfell is 100 leagues or 300 miles as the raven flies. Then it would seem to me, judging roughly from the maps, that Castle Black is between 600 and 700 miles from Winterfell. Pony express riders could manage about 100 miles a day, riding hard, and with fresh horses along the way. Roman mounted infantry might be a better example. They could manage about 60 miles a day. That would make the journey about 10 to 12 days minimum. Jeyne and Theon are both quite frail and riding long distances is quite physical, so I'm not sure they could maintain a pace like that. Then there is the conditions to consider, we have seen how it slowed Stannis' march. I think 15 days is about the best they could hope for, and it might take as much as 20 or more. That gives the Boltons a chance of catching them. I think if they did send any ravens then it was probably to the Dreadfort and other loyal castles further north to cut off the route to Castle Black. That would make more sense to me.

But I'd be interested to hear how the Ramsay camp see the sequence of events from Ramsay's point of view, starting with the escape of Theon and Jeyne right up to Ramsay writing and sending the letter. Maybe someone should start a Ramsay wrote the pink letter thread?

[three-eyed monkey]

2 hours ago, rotting sea cow said:

Just to point it out that Theon is echoing Ramsay thinking with that sentence. He might have said the same to others, e.g. Mance

That Myrtle could be a man escaped completely from my repeated readings. Could you please give some hints?

 

Theon might have said it to someone else, but he did say it to Stannis.

There is a theory that Myrtle is a man, a Liddle as far as I remember. And a fairly interesting theory if I recall correctly. Gotta dig it up myself, can't remember fully. It's old so it's probably archived by now.

[The Fattest Leech]

7 minutes ago, three-eyed monkey said:

Theon might have said it to someone else, but he did say it to Stannis.

There is a theory that Myrtle is a man, a Liddle as far as I remember. And a fairly interesting theory if I recall correctly. Gotta dig it up myself, can't remember fully. It's old so it's probably archived by now.

I don't know about Myrtle as a man, but Odin, Loki and Thor all dressed as woman at different times in order to infiltrate a situation to get some thing back that was rightfully theirs. The tales vary with the reasons, but that is essentially why. Odin does it to preform seidr, which is almost strictly an activity for woman only... kinda like being a spearwife in ASOIAF.

Plus, there is Morna who offers to be Jon's man or woman, whatever he prefers. Now, this probably less directly applies to Morna because she is a female and has given birth, but it seems to show that this idea is within the wildlings as needed.

Anyway, back to the OP! 

I mentioned this in another recent PL thread and maybe wanted to also share it here. This thread has been pretty good, by the way, with everyone staying rather conversational, even when disagreeing.

Anyway again, I am mostly in the Ramsay wrote the letter camp, with input from a possible tortured Mance... but I have been surprising myself recently and have started leaning to this theory. I still have questions about certain motivational aspects, but I can see both sides. I added this to another thread which is what helped pull me into the Stannis camp , and then @sweetsunray and I had a brief discussion after:

During a recent re-read of the  Theon/TWOW sample chapter , this line struck out to me...

  Reveal hidden contents

This is virtually the same consistent dialgogue that is in the Pink Letter... hastily sealed with a non-stamped glob, and Jon doesn't know who the hell "Reek" is. And the other info given plays into other Stannis strategic plans as well.

Your false king is dead, bastard. He and all his host were smashed in seven days of battle. I have his magic sword. Tell his red whore.

Your false king's friends are dead. Their heads upon the walls of Winterfell. Come see them, bastard. Your false king lied, and so did you. You told the world you burned the King Beyond the Wall. Instead you sent him to Winterfell to steal my bride from me.

I will have my bride back. If you want Mance Rayder back, come and get him. I have him in a cage for all the north to see, proof of your lies. The cage is cold, but I have made him a warm cloak from the skins of the six whores who came with him to Winterfell.

I want my bride back. I want the false king's queen. I want his daughter and his red witch. I want this wildling princess. I want his little prince, the wildling babe. And I want my Reek. Send them to me, bastard, and I will not trouble you or your black crows. Keep them from me, and I will cut out your bastard's heart and eat it.

Ramsay Bolton, Trueborn Lord of Winterfell.  

 

The only other reason I can think of that Stannis may be asking for Val (and monster) is what Sam says about the situation: (sorry, italics won't turn off )

A Feast for Crows - Samwell I

"Why not?" asked Pyp. "She wants to have your children. Maybe we should call you Sam the Seducer."

Sam reddened. King Stannis had plans for Val, he knew; she was the mortar with which he meant to seal the peace between the northmen and the free folk. "I don't have time for archery today, I need to go see Jon."

 

[bemused]

7 hours ago, three-eyed monkey said:

@bemused The Northmen might well turn on Roose but I fear they will also turn on Stannis before long, as a consequence of him not succeeding with his plan for Jon. That depends on how it plays out with Davos and Rickon perhaps, and other relatively unknown factors like the full extent of the northern conspiracy. I like Stannis but I don't think he's making it out of the North alive.

And you know I like your theory on Thorne and the wormways, although I don't believe the letter was altered or switched, just read. 

I don't see Stannis making it out of the north alive, either, but he may have quite a bit to do yet, before he meets his end. I don't exactly see the Northmen turning on Stannis. Very few have actually sworn to him. Karstark did, but that was a lie. Mors did, but he may not survive. Manderly promised Davos that he would swear in future, conditionally.(And we can't be sure who he really meant by "my leige lord") ...The rest have only signed on to help him take WF and rescue the Ned's little girl .. but might still agree to help him in future, if he agrees to their autonomy.

Yes, a great deal depends on the extent and nature of the northern resistance / conspiracy. In my view, WF will be taken from within before Stannis gets there and not as a part of his plan. I think we'll see him there as a guest, not a conqueror.

8 hours ago, three-eyed monkey said:

So the letter was written and sent sometime after the Theon chapter, which chronologically is somewhere between a minimum of 1 or 2 days, based on the flight time of a Raven to Castle Black, and a maximum of about 3 weeks, based on the travel time Massey's party would need to reach Castle Black, before Jon XIII.

This 3 week window means that it is hard to know if the letter was sent before or after Stannis took Winterfell, if indeed he does end up taking Winterfell.

I agree with your window of opportunity ,but see the letter being written at the short end - I suppose, because I take his motive to be warning Jon, not luring him..

 

[rotting sea cow]

44 minutes ago, three-eyed monkey said:

Theon might have said it to someone else, but he did say it to Stannis.

 

Also @The Fattest Leech

IMHO, of all arguments about the Pink Letter being from Stannis, the similarity of these sentences is among the weakest (i.e. I want my bride back, I want my Reek). Theon is simply echoing Ramsay's psychopathic way of thinking.

Ramsay presented Theon as Reek to Arnolf Karstark and left him to figure out who is. Even saying he has been with him since Ramsay was a boy  and was a gift of love from his father.

In an hypothetical encounter, Ramsay would present Reek to King Joffrey as his loyal servant, leaving Littlefinger to whisper to the king's ear about Reek's real identity. Joffrey would open his eyes in evident lust and would command Ramsay to make a Reek for him as a display of loyalty. He would say that Ramsay can find the proper material in the black cells where a certain dwarf inhabits. 

[bemused]

3 hours ago, rotting sea cow said:

That Myrtle could be a man escaped completely from my repeated readings. Could you please give some hints?

The theory was put forth by @redriver, years ago.. A bunch of us had been pondering the odd behavior of the Liddle that Bran encountered on his way north (even Theon opined that the Ned's bannermen would fight for the honour of protecting and helping his sons)..

This led him to investigate further. It seems the Liddle in the cave was in fact the Liddle (Jojen addresses him as "my lord" and he doesn't deny it)... and Liddle makes mention of dreaming his old mother, nine years dead, had come back, but his dream wasn't true...Then gaunt, grey haired, deep-voiced Myrtle shows up with Mance as his mother.. when Mance had asked for young spearwives.

We see the clan leaders, as well as their men take action after Jon sends Stannis their way. Flint and Norrey go to Jon, the Wull goes with Stannis, and so does Middle Liddle. ... Though The Liddle and his youngest son are in the appendices of ADWD as characters, they're not in the text.. but then the battle(s?) for WF was originally slated for Dance, not Winds.

@redriver laid this and more out well enough to convince me.