R+L=J v.165

[Geddus]

Gerold was probably ordered to stay behind because had he gone back to King's Landing, he would have been forced to tell Aerys everything he knew, including Lyanna's location.

[Lord Varys]

7 hours ago, Geddus said:

Gerold was probably ordered to stay behind because had he gone back to King's Landing, he would have been forced to tell Aerys everything he knew, including Lyanna's location.

That presupposes that Aerys II didn't know already where the hell Lyanna was, being the one who told Gerold where to find Rhaegar. It also presupposes that Rhaegar left the tower alone, and that he was only with Oswell and Arthur at that time - for which we also have no evidence. We know Rhaegar left Dragonstone with six companions - if Connington and Mooton were with him originally they left him at one point, to be able to later fight at Stoney Sept - but Richard Lonmouth could actually have stayed with Rhaegar, returning with him to KL and fighting (and surviving) the Trident at his side.

That way his reappearance later in the series could actually be relevant to the back story to a very high degree.

But I digress.

The idea that the Prince of Dragonstone left the tower of joy alone on his horse is ridiculous beyond degree. Rhaegar was a royal prince. Princes don't travel alone. And neither do Lord Commanders of the Kingsguard, especially not in wartime. The idea that only Ser Gerold showed up at the tower - and not, say, Ser Gerold and a contingent of royal knights, squires, men-at-arms, and servants - is pretty far-fetched. It is not that the man was on some kind of secret James Bond mission, or anything. But if Ser Gerold didn't go alone to the tower his men would have gone back with Rhaegar to KL.

Even if he had left the tower all by himself and his horse he would have called upon the nearest castle to change the horse, get himself some servants, grooms, and other attendants. Not to mention a proper royal retinue. If Rhaegar had shown up all by himself at his father's court he would have looked like a beggar. It wouldn't have been difficult for Aerys II's people to figure out where Lyanna Stark approximately was simply by tracking down the places Prince Rhaegar stayed on his way to KL.

In fact, this may have been how Varys found Rhaegar and Lyanna, told Aerys II about that, who then sent out Ser Gerold to bring him back.

If Aerys II could have forced Ser Gerold to tell him stuff, then he could also have forced Rhaegar to tell him the truth. Last time I looked Rhaegar had as much chance to stand against the champion of House Targaryen as Rickard Stark did.

The idea that Rhaegar knew his father wouldn't harm him when he made the decision to return to KL also makes no sense. His father was mad. Nothing Ser Gerold said to him could guarantee that Aerys II would not change his mind in a heartbeat - assuming the man hadn't lied to Gerold in the first place, only luring Rhaegar back to court so that he could kill him.

[Megorova]

17 hours ago, Widow's Watch said:

It occurs to me that Gerold Hightower staying behind with Arthur and Oswell may have gone beyond what Rhaegar may have requested of him and a way to try and make things up to Rickard Stark.

Ser Gerold was present when Aerys had Brandon and Rickard killed and he told Jaime afterward that he swore a vow to guard the king, not to judge him. So I do have to wonder if this didn't go much further for him, guarding Lyanna and protecting her and her unborn child wasn't also him paying his debt.

+

2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

That presupposes that Aerys II didn't know already where the hell Lyanna was, being the one who told Gerold where to find Rhaegar.

We don't know what actually happened between Rhaegar, kidnapping Lyanna near Harrenhal, and Ned, coming to Tower of Joy, where he met those three Kingsguards. But we do know that Gerold Hightower wasn't amongst those, that helped Rhaegar to kidnap Lyanna. If I remember correctly, Rhaegar at that time was escorted only by Arthur Dayne and Oswell Whent. Gerold was sent to Dorne by King Aerys, to bring Rhaegar back to King's Landing.

So how about this scenario? - when Rhaegar was in Dorne, and heard about the war, he sent a message to his family. Could be that he not only told where he is, but also why and with whom. So when Aerys was sending Gerold to Rhaegar, his mission was not to bring Rhaegar, but rather to stay back with Lyanna, and guard her and unborn Targaryen baby, while Rhaegar will be fighting in war. So Lord Commander's presense at the Tower of Joy, was a gesture of goodwill from Aerys, towards his daughter-in-law, or his unborn grandchild. Thus Aerys knew about R+L=J.

So maybe there are even records about it, somewhere in Red Keep. Maybe Aerys said to someone to write down, that their family is expecting a baby, and that the mother is Lyanna Stark. Though it's unlikely that Robert, or Lannisters after him, or even Varys and Littefinger, were interested in private lives of Targaryens, and thus went thru their correspondence, or personal archive, after their death. But if Dany will ever get to Red Keep, then she will definitely go thru any personal things, that were left after her family. So she may be the one, who will eventually find out truth about Jon.

2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

The idea that Rhaegar knew his father wouldn't harm him when he made the decision to return to KL also makes no sense. His father was mad. Nothing Ser Gerold said to him could guarantee that Aerys II would not change his mind in a heartbeat

Maybe Rhaegar went back to Kl, without fearing repercussions from his father, because he already received from his father a gesture of goodwill, and assurance of safety. That's if when Gerold came to the Tower of Joy, he said to Rhaegar that the King personally has sent Lord Commander to protect his unborn grandchild. And thus Rhaegar became convinced, that he will be safe from his father's wrath. He knew from Gerold, that his father isn't mad at him, so it's safe to go back, and safe to leave Lyanna in Dorne, where she will be protected by Lord Commander.

[Geddus]

19 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

That presupposes that Aerys II didn't know already where the hell Lyanna was, being the one who told Gerold where to find Rhaegar.

If Aerys II could have forced Ser Gerold to tell him stuff, then he could also have forced Rhaegar to tell him the truth.

Yes, it does because that's what Jaime says. He may be wrong, obviously, but so far there's nothing that points towards that and you know, he was there.

As for the rest, I think you're making a lot of assumptions, both about the story and even more about my post and I'm not really interested in that kind of discussion. I will just point out that Rhaegar, last I checked, wasn't a Kingsguard so it wasn't his duty to tell his king anything.

[Lord Varys]

On 30.3.2018 at 7:26 PM, Megorova said:

But we do know that Gerold Hightower wasn't amongst those, that helped Rhaegar to kidnap Lyanna. If I remember correctly, Rhaegar at that time was escorted only by Arthur Dayne and Oswell Whent. Gerold was sent to Dorne by King Aerys, to bring Rhaegar back to King's Landing.

Sure, that we know. What we don't know was who was with Rhaegar when he took Lyanna, nor who was with Rhaegar and Lyanna when Ser Gerold found them (or how many men were with Ser Gerold).

What we do know is that Prince Rhaegar left with six companions when he started his journey that eventually ending with Lyanna's abduction. We have good reason to assume that Whent and Dayne were two of those men - and it is not unreasonably assume that Jon Connington, Myles Mooton, and Richard Lonmouth were among the others.

On 30.3.2018 at 7:26 PM, Megorova said:

So how about this scenario? - when Rhaegar was in Dorne, and heard about the war, he sent a message to his family. Could be that he not only told where he is, but also why and with whom. So when Aerys was sending Gerold to Rhaegar, his mission was not to bring Rhaegar, but rather to stay back with Lyanna, and guard her and unborn Targaryen baby, while Rhaegar will be fighting in war. So Lord Commander's presense at the Tower of Joy, was a gesture of goodwill from Aerys, towards his daughter-in-law, or his unborn grandchild. Thus Aerys knew about R+L=J.

That doesn't make a lot of sense to me because Lyanna would have been infinitely safer at some Dornish castle of Rhaegar's friends (Starfall, say) or even at Dragonstone or KL itself. 

Chances are also very slim that King Aerys II commanded the Lord Commander of his Kingsguard to protect the mistress/second wife of his son. One could make a case that he would want Rhaegar to be protected in such a manner, but not Lyanna.

Aerys II and his court most likely also knew about Rhaegar and Lyanna. Everybody would have known at least that the dragon was fucking the she-wolf there. Whether he knew about a marriage or not would depend how it happened and what Rhaegar told his father after his return, but I really see no reason why on earth Rhaegar should keep this thing a secret.

The whole point of taking Lyanna was to have Lyanna, to be with her. Why on earth should he then want to keep this a secret? When pretty much the entire Realm the reason why Robert and Rhaegar were fighting each other was over Lyanna? 

I mean, what would you say if you were asked by your father and king (or anyone, really) what you were doing with that girl everybody knew you had taken? Would ignore the question? Try to change the subject (not sure how that would work with Aerys but you could try with lesser men, at least)?

You would just look and appear to be pretty mad. I mean, if you didn't told anyone that you married her you would like a moron thinking with his dick, who was risking his kingdom, family, crown, etc. just because he wanted to fuck a particular young girl.

That's nothing you want people to think about you. Not if you want to be king.

I mean, Robb made a fool of himself over the Jeyne affair, but he did marry her and he stood by that decision. But now think for a moment he ran away with the daughter of a powerful ally/vassal while already married to another woman (who had already given him heirs) and then coming back in the middle of crisis he caused, never even explaining himself and his motivations. That is simply not feasible. Pretty much no man would have followed him in such a scenario...

On 30.3.2018 at 7:26 PM, Megorova said:

So maybe there are even records about it, somewhere in Red Keep. Maybe Aerys said to someone to write down, that their family is expecting a baby, and that the mother is Lyanna Stark. Though it's unlikely that Robert, or Lannisters after him, or even Varys and Littefinger, were interested in private lives of Targaryens, and thus went thru their correspondence, or personal archive, after their death. But if Dany will ever get to Red Keep, then she will definitely go thru any personal things, that were left after her family. So she may be the one, who will eventually find out truth about Jon.

 

If Aerys II knew it, then others at his court would have known, too. And there are hints that others knew it, considering that Viserys III talked to Daenerys about the feelings Rhaegar had for Lyanna. Somebody would have told him that. Could have been his mother Rhaella, could have been Willem Darry, could have been Rhaegar himself (before the Trident, while he was talking to his younger brother in person).

On 30.3.2018 at 7:26 PM, Megorova said:

Maybe Rhaegar went back to Kl, without fearing repercussions from his father, because he already received from his father a gesture of goodwill, and assurance of safety. That's if when Gerold came to the Tower of Joy, he said to Rhaegar that the King personally has sent Lord Commander to protect his unborn grandchild. And thus Rhaegar became convinced, that he will be safe from his father's wrath. He knew from Gerold, that his father isn't mad at him, so it's safe to go back, and safe to leave Lyanna in Dorne, where she will be protected by Lord Commander.

The thing with assurances from a madman is that they are worth pretty much nothing. Rhaegar could never be sure that his father meant what he said - or that he would not later change his mind on a whim in one of his mad rages.

And it is not that Rhaegar could put any kind of pressure on Aerys II while he was in the middle of nowhere. Not even after his return to KL. Only after his father had given him command of the Targaryen army - and Rhaegar had actually taken that command and won the loyalty and trust of the men under his command - could he become a real threat to his father and king.

By the time Rhaegar has his last conversation with Jaime he apparently thinks he can deal with his father after he has crushed Robert. We'll never know whether he was right about that or not - how bloody the affair would have been, whether Aerys II would have killed Elia and the children before Rhaegar had gotten to him, etc. - but this tells us nothing about the power dynamic by the time Rhaegar arrived at the court after Ser Gerold had found him.

If we assume Rhaegar was in control/influential by that time would be the same as assuming that Tyrion was in control/influential in KL by the time he rode in the city in ACoK because he was the uncle of the king and had been named Acting Hand by Lord Tywin. It would be wrong. Tyrion had to be accepted in that capacity and he had to take/seize power to actually wield influence. It would have been similar with Rhaegar.

On 31.3.2018 at 11:43 AM, Geddus said:

Yes, it does because that's what Jaime says. He may be wrong, obviously, but so far there's nothing that points towards that and you know, he was there.

Jaime doesn't specify what Gerold knew or didn't know when he left KL for the tower of joy. It is not likely that Varys/Aerys II knew precises where the hell Rhaegar and Lyanna (like, the second watchtower in the Red Mountains to the right) but they may have known enough to send Ser Gerold out with very precise directions.

The idea that Aerys II sent out Ser Gerold to literally search Westeros for Rhaegar without giving him anything to go on doesn't sound very likely. Not that a madman couldn't have done that. But even a madman would have known better than to waste his Lord Commander of the Kingsguard on such a ridiculous task. Informers, men-at-arms, morons, etc. could have gone on such quests.

You send out a man like Ser Gerold when the time has come to close the deal. And it makes sense to send him to talk to Rhaegar. After all, he is one of the highest officials in the Realm, the kind of man the Prince of Dragonstone would actually have to listen when he met with him.

On 31.3.2018 at 11:43 AM, Geddus said:

I will just point out that Rhaegar, last I checked, wasn't a Kingsguard so it wasn't his duty to tell his king anything.

You do recall that Robert Baratheon has informed Arya Stark and us readers that it is great crime to lie to a king, right?

You don't lie to your king, and you sure as hell don't lie to your father, either. If Rhaegar believed he could lie to his father and king - who also happened to a madman who had a tendency to burn people alive who offended him - or outright refuse to answer his question(s) then Rhaegar would have to be ever madder than his father.

And do you really think Rhaegar returned to KL like a thief in the night? Don't you think people would have seen him on the road, crossing the Reach? Don't you think people could pinpoint Lyanna's location simply from backtracking Rhaegar's steps to the Red Mountains?

[Megorova]

4 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Chances are also very slim that King Aerys II commanded the Lord Commander of his Kingsguard to protect the mistress/second wife of his son. One could make a case that he would want Rhaegar to be protected in such a manner, but not Lyanna.

Though what if the reason, why Rhaegar kidnapped Lyanna, or maybe even Lyanna willingly went with him, because they somehow found out, that their child is going to be a saviour of mankind? And thus Rhaegar revealed this information to his father.

Aerys and Rhaella were forced to marry, or rather agreed to marry, because according to woods witch's prediction, the promised Prince will be their descendant. In the original prophecy, there was only information about Second Long Night and the hero. Most likely the source of that prophecy was Daenys the Dreamer. And thus Targaryens knew for sure, that it will happen, same how happened the Doom of Valyria, that was also predicted by her. She had a whole book of prophecies.

Seems that Rhaegar decided, that he should be a knight, when he still thought, that he is the promised Prince, after he has read that book in Targaryens' library. So if Aerys agreed to marry with a woman, that he didn't loved, and that also didn't loved him, when they were only 15 years old, then most likely he was willing to make even greater sacrifices for the sake of saving the world.

If Rhaegar has sent to his father a message, with concrete evidences, that Lyanna's unborn child is the Messiah, then Aerys would have ordered Lord Commander, and also the greatest swordsman of 7K, Arthur Dayne, to protect/guard Lyanna.

Have you ever thought, that it's kind of strange, that the King didn't sent Arthur, to fight alongside Rhaegar? To me it looked kind of weird, how those three Kingsguards were behaving, and what they were saying. It looked like, even though they weren't with Aerys in KL, and weren't with Rhaegar at the Trident, they didn't thought that they failed either of them. As if though they were doing exactly what was ordered to them to do.

At first, for a long time, I thought that they stopped serving to Mad King, and were staying at the Tower, because they were doing what Rhaegar ordered them. But there's still was something wrong in that sort of scenario. Arthur was Rhaegar's best friend. Ok, it's understandable why he was guarding Lyanna, instead of being elsewhere. But why did Gerold Hightower was also there? Did he betrayed Aerys? Did he changed sides, and decided to serve to Prince Rhaegar instead? So what makes more sense, is that not only Rhaegar asked them to stay with Lyanna, but it was also what Aerys' ordered them to do.

4 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

The whole point of taking Lyanna was to have Lyanna, to be with her. Why on earth should he then want to keep this a secret? When pretty much the entire Realm the reason why Robert and Rhaegar were fighting each other was over Lyanna? 

Maybe there was a reason for Rhaegar to believe, that if wrong people will find out, who their child is going to become (new Azor Ahai), then they may harm Lyanna, prevent the birth of her baby, for whatever reason. Seems that Craster was serving to the Great Other. Euron Greyjoy is worshiping Drowned God, who may be The Great Other, one of his aliases. Maybe Rhaegar knew that there are Blackfyres in 7K, and that they will want to kidnap the baby. Whatever the reason may be, the point is is that he kept Lyanna's pregnancy in secret from everyone exept people closest to him, including eventually his father.

4 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

The thing with assurances from a madman is that they are worth pretty much nothing. Rhaegar could never be sure that his father meant what he said - or that he would not later change his mind on a whim in one of his mad rages.

I think that Aerys was ill, he had some sort of disease. Maybe syphilis, that he got during his imprisonment in Duskendale. Maybe he was raped, while he was there, by people from House Hollard, and that's the reason why after that captivity, his mental state became very unstable. And why he was afraid to leave Red Keep afterwards. And why he ordered to butcher all people of Denys House and Hollard House, except one boy - to prevent them from revealing to others, what they did to him. Aerys' behavior during Tournament at Harrenhal - laughing and crying without reason, looks like symptoms of a person, whose brain is damaged by syphilis. There was a case like that, in one of episodes on House M.D. TV-series.

Also, according to some sources, English King Henry VIII had syphilis, which caused "a significant personality shift towards more paranoia, anxiety, depression and mental deterioration". Some of GRRM's characters are based on historical figures from Medieval England. So maybe Aerys is based on Henry VIII.

So maybe Rhaegar knew that his father is ill, and not actually a madman, and thus for most of the time, when he feels better, and not in one of his fits, it's possible to reason with him.

4 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

And it is not that Rhaegar could put any kind of pressure on Aerys II while he was in the middle of nowhere. Not even after his return to KL. Only after his father had given him command of the Targaryen army - and Rhaegar had actually taken that command and won the loyalty and trust of the men under his command - could he become a real threat to his father and king.

Maybe Rhaegar knew Aerys' horrible secret (what I mentioned above), and threatend him, that he will tell it to others. If my guess is correct, then obviously that Rhaella also knew. It could also explain why Aerys was raping his wife - he was victim of sexual abuse. And why he wasn't letting anyone to his body, didn't let anyone cut his hair or nails - maybe while he was kept in imprisonment, he was tortured and cut. So when Aerys raped his wife, that night when Jaime was guarding Rhaella's chamber, she told him that this can't go on anymore, and that either he will let her go to Dragonstone, or he may kill her, because she will reveal his secret to everyone. And he couldn't kill her, because Rhaegar also knew, and Rhaegar was away, so if his mother would have been killed, then Rhaegar could have told to others. So Aerys had to let Rhaella go, and she left immediately, next morning.

4 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

By the time Rhaegar has his last conversation with Jaime he apparently thinks he can deal with his father after he has crushed Robert. We'll never know whether he was right about that or not

Whether my theory is correct, or not, I think that, even if there was no any horrible and personal secret for Rhaegar, to hold over his father, nevertheless Rhaegar knew his father much better, that we do. And thus he could have judged his character, and what he can and will do, fairly well. So if he thought that he is safe from his father's wrath, then most likely he was right about it.

[Geddus]

17 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

You don't lie to your king, and you sure as hell don't lie to your father, either. If Rhaegar believed he could lie to his father and king - who also happened to a madman who had a tendency to burn people alive who offended him - or outright refuse to answer his question(s) then Rhaegar would have to be ever madder than his father.

And do you really think Rhaegar returned to KL like a thief in the night? Don't you think people would have seen him on the road, crossing the Reach? Don't you think people could pinpoint Lyanna's location simply from backtracking Rhaegar's steps to the Red Mountains?

Please, that's insulting to both of us. Rhaegar wouldn't lie to his father and king? The same Rhaegar who had just tried to organize a secret great council to depose said father and king? Come on.

The part about backtracking the prince's route isn't that great either. Such an investigation would take months and it wouldn't yield anything better than a general direction. What would be the point?

[Lord Varys]

2 hours ago, Geddus said:

Please, that's insulting to both of us. Rhaegar wouldn't lie to his father and king? The same Rhaegar who had just tried to organize a secret great council to depose said father and king? Come on.

Come on, Aerys II was a suspicious guy. If he had asked about Lyanna and Rhaegar had refused to talk about her - or had come up with a ridiculous excuse - then there was more than enough wildfire in the capital to cook Rhaegar alive, not to mention men willing and able to ensure that what he was saying was the truth.

Not to mention that King Aerys II also held Princess Elia and Rhaegar's children, allowing him to threaten their lives - and kill them - first before Rhaegar himself wuld be harmed/killed.

2 hours ago, Geddus said:

The part about backtracking the prince's route isn't that great either. Such an investigation would take months and it wouldn't yield anything better than a general direction. What would be the point?

Sure it is. Rhaegar is a royal prince who is actually known across the Realm by many people who saw him at tourneys, etc. Not to mention that he has Valyrian hairs and eyes. Rhaegar would have to sleep, change horses, ask for provisions, etc. at many places on the route back to KL - and anyone recognizing the man at any of those places (or simply on the road) could have informed Varys/Aerys II about that, allowing them to pinpoint the location of Rhaegar's hiding place (if they didn't know it already) very precisely.

After all, the first such sighting could have taken place on the Prince's Pass itself. It is one of the major passes into Dorne which makes it very likely that quite a few people travel this route. And the Reach is the most populous region of the Seven Kingdoms.

While we have no reason to believe that Rhaegar cut his hair and disguised himself as a beggar and walked to KL it makes little sense to assume his journey could remain a secret.

Vice versa, there is no reason to believe his journey to the tower with Lyanna and the knights in tow took place in secret. They may have tried to leave no tracks but it is not unlikely that somebody found those tracks, allowing Ser Gerold to finally reach Rhaegar.

[Megorova]

2 hours ago, Geddus said:

The same Rhaegar who had just tried to organize a secret great council to depose said father and king?

We don't know whether that was the truth. Could be that Varys (who is a Blackfyre, and came to Westeros to prepare ground for Sixth Rebellion of Blackfyres, by clashing Targaryens together, father against son, and then finish off survivor of that war by invasion of Golden Company) lied about Rhaegar, and everything in what Rhaegar was blamed (except Lyanna's kidnapping), wasn't done by him, but rather by anti-Targaryen network, created in 7K by Varys.

17 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Rhaegar would have to sleep, change horses, ask for provisions, etc. at many places on the route back to KL - and anyone recognizing the man at any of those places (or simply on the road)

That's because you're assuming, that Rhaegar himself was communicating with inn-keepers, grooms, smiths, traders, and other people, that were on his way to Dorne and back. But that's wrong. Most likely, everything that he may have needed, was arranged for him by his companions. Rhaegar himself was staying away from conversing with strangers. He was probably wearing a hood, and kept his face hiden, when they were near other people. And when they arrived to an inn, to stay there for the night, or to a stable, to change horses, everything was arranged by Rhaegar's servants. Like when Griff's companions were buying horses for him and fAegon, those people, that sold them those horses, didn't even met with fAegon. Same with Rhaegar. His people arranged everything, and he just took fresh horse, without owners even seeing him. And when they came to an inn, after everything was arranged, he just slipped in booked for him room, and stayed there, ate there, and then left unseen by inn-keepers, in same manner he came there.

Thus it was impossible to trace his movement.

[Geddus]

16 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Come on, Aerys II was a suspicious guy. If he had asked about Lyanna and Rhaegar had refused to talk about her - or had come up with a ridiculous excuse - then there was more than enough wildfire in the capital to cook Rhaegar alive, not to mention men willing and able to ensure that what he was saying was the truth.

Not to mention that King Aerys II also held Princess Elia and Rhaegar's children, allowing him to threaten their lives - and kill them - first before Rhaegar himself wuld be harmed/killed.

Sure it is. Rhaegar is a royal prince who is actually known across the Realm by many people who saw him at tourneys, etc. Not to mention that he has Valyrian hairs and eyes. Rhaegar would have to sleep, change horses, ask for provisions, etc. at many places on the route back to KL - and anyone recognizing the man at any of those places (or simply on the road) could have informed Varys/Aerys II about that, allowing them to pinpoint the location of Rhaegar's hiding place (if they didn't know it already) very precisely.

After all, the first such sighting could have taken place on the Prince's Pass itself. It is one of the major passes into Dorne which makes it very likely that quite a few people travel this route. And the Reach is the most populous region of the Seven Kingdoms.

While we have no reason to believe that Rhaegar cut his hair and disguised himself as a beggar and walked to KL it makes little sense to assume his journey could remain a secret.

Vice versa, there is no reason to believe his journey to the tower with Lyanna and the knights in tow took place in secret. They may have tried to leave no tracks but it is not unlikely that somebody found those tracks, allowing Ser Gerold to finally reach Rhaegar.

Aerys gave Rhaegar command of the army, he couldn't have mistrusted him that much after all. And as far as we know, he didn't ask him about his whereabouts when the prince returned to the capital (Jaime was there, doesn't recall anything like that. Of course it could be an omission by GRRM). Elia and her children were hostages against Dorne.

As for the second part I don't need you to explain to me how it could be done, I already agreed it's possible - except the bit about Rhaegar's face being recognized is kinda wrong, there are very few people in the entire realm that would be able to do that and almost all of them live in King's Landing; they could, and probably would, recognize his valyrian features tho. Anyway my point was that gathering that kind of information would take a very long time and it would only give approximate results ("They came from the dornish mountains!" Great. What then?).

[Lord Varys]

52 minutes ago, Geddus said:

Aerys gave Rhaegar command of the army, he couldn't have mistrusted him that much after all. And as far as we know, he didn't ask him about his whereabouts when the prince returned to the capital (Jaime was there, doesn't recall anything like that. Of course it could be an omission by GRRM). Elia and her children were hostages against Dorne.

It is you who suggested that Hightower had to stay at the tower as to not tell Aerys II where Lyanna is to be found, indicating that you think Aerys II might have cared about finding her. If he cared about finding her a great deal then Rhaegar himself would have been a source of such knowledge.

Which means, according your own idea, Aerys II would have to ask Rhaegar about that and expect an answer (since you assume he gave a shit - which is, as far as we know, never actually hinted at anywhere in the texts we have).

Considering the man's suspicious nature and paranoid madness it is not very likely that Rhaegar, his wife, and children would have remained unharmed if Rhaegar had angered his royal father by defying him in this matter - or giving him transparent excuses and lies.

Rhaegar's wife and children were actually used as hostages against Dorne while Prince Rhaegar were still alive. Aerys II threatened to harm or kill them while Rhaegar was still around. Rhaegar did/could not prevent it.

If you ask me, it would make more sense to assume that Aerys II didn't give a damn about Lyanna than that Hightower had to stay at the tower to ensure couldn't figure out where she was. 

58 minutes ago, Geddus said:

As for the second part I don't need you to explain to me how it could be done, I already agreed it's possible - except the bit about Rhaegar's face being recognized is kinda wrong, there are very few people in the entire realm that would be able to do that and almost all of them live in King's Landing; they could, and probably would, recognize his valyrian features tho. Anyway my point was that gathering that kind of information would take a very long time and it would only give approximate results ("They came from the dornish mountains!" Great. What then?).

There are ravens carrying messages in this world, are there not? You also seem to underestimate the amount of men who attend tourneys, and how many such people are to be found at castles (or stay at inns when they are traveling the country).

Harrenhal alone drew half the Realm to that place, and seeing and watching the Prince of Dragonstone would have been a huge part of the fun.

[Geddus]

4 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

It is you who suggested that Hightower had to stay at the tower as to not tell Aerys II where Lyanna is to be found, indicating that you think Aerys II might have cared about finding her. If he cared about finding her a great deal then Rhaegar himself would have been a source of such knowledge.

There are ravens carrying messages in this world, are there not? You also seem to underestimate the amount of men who attend tourneys, and how many such people are to be found at castles (or stay at inns when they are traveling the country).

Harrenhal alone drew half the Realm to that place, and seeing and watching the Prince of Dragonstone would have been a huge part of the fun.

As I already wrote in another post you really assume a lot of things. No, I don't think anything of the sort and I don't understand why you're bringing that up because whether Aerys cared about Lyanna or not is completely irrelevant: it's what Rhaegar thought that matters, since he's the one who would have given the order to Hightower. So maybe he believed his father would care or maybe he just wanted to be extra careful, either option seems completely reasonable to me.

Ravens are only accessible to lords and their maesters. And no, I don't underestimate anything: how many of those people watching the tourney would have seen the prince (or any other great noble, for that matter) up close and for a time long enough that they would be able to recognize him on sight months later?

[Lord Varys]

23 minutes ago, Geddus said:

As I already wrote in another post you really assume a lot of things. No, I don't think anything of the sort and I don't understand why you're bringing that up because whether Aerys cared about Lyanna or not is completely irrelevant: it's what Rhaegar thought that matters, since he's the one who would have given the order to Hightower. So maybe he believed his father would care or maybe he just wanted to be extra careful, either option seems completely reasonable to me.

Rhaegar would have learned from Ser Gerold whether King Aerys II wanted to know where Lyanna Stark is, no? And if Prince Rhaegar could command Ser Gerold to stay at the tower and protect Lyanna instead of returning to his king then it is very likely he would also have given Prince Rhaegar information on the matter whether his father wanted to know where Lyanna is or not.

But why on earth should we assume that Rhaegar thought it was a bad thing that his father learned where the hell Lyanna was? What is our textual evidence for such an assumption? And again - even if Rhaegar believed that. He himself would have been a source of that information. By going to KL Rhaegar was himself risking that he himself would give up Lyanna's location either to his father or his father's torturers.

Not to mention that the entire scenario makes no sense. If Rhaegar wanted Lyanna's location to remain a secret he should have told Dayne and Whent to take her and go to a place neither he nor Hightower knew. That way neither Rhaegar nor Hightower could tell Aerys (or anyone) anything. That would have been the obvious solution to that 'problem'. And there is no reason to believe that Lyanna was unable to leave that tower months before the birth of the child.

23 minutes ago, Geddus said:

Ravens are only accessible to lords and their maesters. And no, I don't underestimate anything: how many of those people watching the tourney would have seen the prince (or any other great noble, for that matter) up close and for a time long enough that they would be able to recognize him on sight months later?

A prince traveling the country would - unless he intended to disguise himself (which we have no reason to assume while Rhaegar was on his way back to KL) - stop at various castles and other places where people of note would recognize him.

Not to mention that a prince's clothes and armor usually depict the colors and arms of the royal house. You don't have to recognize Prince Rhaegar's face - or see his Valyrian hair and eyes - to recognize the three-headed dragon of House Targaryen, red on black.

[Geddus]

16 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Rhaegar would have learned from Ser Gerold whether King Aerys II wanted to know where Lyanna Stark is, no? And if Prince Rhaegar could command Ser Gerold to stay at the tower and protect Lyanna instead of returning to his king then it is very likely he would also have given Prince Rhaegar information on the matter whether his father wanted to know where Lyanna is or not.

If that's what Aerys wanted ser Gerold could have known it, sure. Or not, since the king is not exactly required to share his reasoning with the Kingsguard. There's also the possibility that Aerys changed his mind in the meantime. Or Rhaegar, as I already wrote, just wanted to be extra careful and avoid the possibility of the king asking anyone altogether.

 

16 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

A prince traveling the country would - unless he intended to disguise himself (which we have no reason to assume while Rhaegar was on his way back to KL) - stop at various castles and other places where people of note would recognize him.

Not to mention that a prince's clothes and armor usually depict the colors and arms of the royal house. You don't have to recognize Prince Rhaegar's face - or see his Valyrian hair and eyes - to recognize the three-headed dragon of House Targaryen, red on black.

Because of course Rhaegar would travel in full tourney armor, whith his house's banners on display for everyone to behold.

To be honest I'm not sure anymore what point you're trying to make, it seems to me you're trying (unsuccesfully) to poke holes in my suggestion just for the sake of it.

[Lord Varys]

3 hours ago, Geddus said:

If that's what Aerys wanted ser Gerold could have known it, sure. Or not, since the king is not exactly required to share his reasoning with the Kingsguard. There's also the possibility that Aerys changed his mind in the meantime. Or Rhaegar, as I already wrote, just wanted to be extra careful and avoid the possibility of the king asking anyone altogether.

Why don't you address the real refutation to your entire scenario - that Rhaegar could have sent Dayne/Whent with Lyanna to another location, a location neither he nor Hightower nor anyone needed to know if he wanted to prevent King Aerys II to learn where she was?

There is no good counter-argument against that one, is there? Which is why you are ignoring it, pretending it doesn't exist.

If Aerys II wanted to know where Lyanna was - and if people assumed he wanted to know where she was - then he would, most likely, also wanted to take possession of her. Which is why Ser Gerold Hightower most likely would have been under royal orders to bring both Rhaegar Targaryen and Lyanna Stark back to KL, not merely Prince Rhaegar.

But if that was the case then it is odd that Ser Gerold didn't do just that - after all, if he was obliged to obey the command of his king to find and bring back Prince Rhaegar, he would also be obliged to bring Lyanna Stark to his king (or ensure that she got to him), no?

Rhaegar would also only have commanded Hightower to stay with Lyanna to protect if he had had reason to believe that Hightower would not stick to a lie he cooked up - like, that Lyanna simply hadn't been with Rhaegar when he found him, or some other such story. Which makes only sense if Rhaegar believed Hightower may have wanted to tell Aerys the truth about Lyanna. But why trust such a man with the protection of Lyanna? What's going to stop Hightower from immediately abandoning Lyanna and the tower after Rhaegar has left, reach the nearest loyalist castle, and send a raven to Aerys to tell him everything about Lyanna's location? Or what's stopping him from seizing Lyanna himself to bring her back to KL as he knew his king wanted him to do?

The entire scenario is full of holes, from beginning to end. Not just on Aerys' side, but also on Hightower's side, and - especially - on Rhaegar's side.

3 hours ago, Geddus said:

Because of course Rhaegar would travel in full tourney armor, whith his house's banners on display for everyone to behold.

We don't know how Rhaegar traveled. Considering that he wasn't under arrest or anything (as far as we know) and that he (apparently) returned to court to take supreme command of the royal armies, there is no reason to assume he made any attempt to keep his identity and presence a secret. The Reach was Targaryen territory. There were no rebels there, no reason to keep himself hidden.

I mean, traveling with two famous Kingsguard along with Lyanna Stark also doesn't imply Rhaegar kept a low profile - or if he tried to do, he didn't do it very competently. If he and Lyanna and their companions wore a disguise it would have been as effective as Jon Connington's disguise as 'Griff'. It might fool some fools, but certainly not men of intelligence - and especially not men who had once seen Prince Rhaegar, Lyanna Stark, Arthur Dayne, and Oswell Whent. And even men who had seen neither of them would have quickly realized who they would have to be had King Aerys II actually made it known across the Realm that he wanted those people found.

Rhaegar, Oswell, and Arthur were men of rank and title - they would not pass for humble hedge knights, beggars, etc. for long, and Lyanna Stark was also not the kind of person who had the necessary self-control to not draw attention to herself.

Egg shaves his head, and Dunk really is a humble hedge knight. He doesn't pretend to be one. Daemon the Younger tried to pretend - and failed, just as Jon Connington tried to pretend he wasn't a lord.

In addition, the Kingsguard all wear their white armor and cloaks when they meet Ned's gang at the tower - which means they dragged those along on the journey to the tower. If they were only a handful of people not traveling with a carts and carriages it should have been rather difficult to hide such things. They would have had additional horses to carry stuff, but how inconspicuous is white plate armor? How well can you hide stuff like that on a horse? Assuming they did not wear them. If they wore them outright then Rhaegar's position would have been never been a true secret, at least while he was in a region where people saw him.

The best way how Hightower/Aerys stumbled on Rhaegar's location is by receiving reports/rumors about his movements. He and Lyanna and the others would have been seen, and reports of that would have eventually reached KL. Ser Gerold wouldn't have found them if they had really left no trace.

3 hours ago, Geddus said:

To be honest I'm not sure anymore what point you're trying to make, it seems to me you're trying (unsuccesfully) to poke holes in my suggestion just for the sake of it.

I don't have to poke holes. They are there for all the world to see, really.

[JNR]

8 hours ago, Geddus said:

Because of course Rhaegar would travel in full tourney armor, whith his house's banners on display for everyone to behold.

To support your point here we need only backtrack in time a bit.

It's commonly assumed in this thread Rhaegar kidnapped Lyanna near Harrenhal and proceeded with her, and other companions, south to the ToJ.  

A glance at the map reveals the distance to be about a thousand miles.  Ergo, weeks and weeks of travel.

So if -- as has been suggested -- Rhaegar could not travel without leaving a trail of evidence revealing his route, then it should always have been very easy for Aerys to find Rhaegar at will, any time during the Rebellion.  

After all, Rhaegar had just gone a thousand miles from point A to point B.

But we know directly from Jaime, who was in King's Landing attending the king, that Aerys could not do exactly that:

Quote

When Merryweather failed so dismally to contain Robert's Rebellion and Prince Rhaegar could not be found, Aerys had turned to the next best thing, and raised Connington to the Handship. 

We know, in other words, that Rhaegar's location was completely hidden... for months and months... even from Aerys, with all his resources including Varys and Varys' spy network.  We know this is why Aerys was forced to appoint a second-best Hand at a time when his regime was under direct threat.

So any argument that Rhaegar could not travel from point A to point B without being tracked, without revealing his location, appears extremely doubtful at best.

[-Shaggydog-]

Hi, I don't know if that was discussed here before:

ADWD Jon:

Quote

He rose and dressed in darkness, as Mormont's raven muttered across the room. "Corn," the bird said and "King," and, "Snow, Jon Snow, Jon Snow." That was queer. The bird had never said his full name before, as best Jon could recall.

Assuming the raven is skinchanged by Bran (which is pointed out by the unsual vocabulary and Jon being curious about that, too). Can it be that Bran already knows about Jon's parentage and is just revealing it to Jon by calling him "King"?

Keeping in mind that Rhegar's son should have the bigger claim to the IT, the equation R+L=J can be rewritten as R+L="King".

Why else would Mormont's raven (Bran) call him "King"?

[Lord Varys]

5 hours ago, JNR said:

We know, in other words, that Rhaegar's location was completely hidden... for months and months... even from Aerys, with all his resources including Varys and Varys' spy network.  We know this is why Aerys was forced to appoint a second-best Hand at a time when his regime was under direct threat.

So any argument that Rhaegar could not travel from point A to point B without being tracked, without revealing his location, appears extremely doubtful at best.

I'd answer to that that I did not doubt or contest that Rhaegar and Lyanna hid from King Aerys II - they might have, and they may have taken precautions as to evade capture while the man was actually searching for them to punish/execute them for their transgressions. I don't assume (or think it a given) that they reached that tower in the Red Mountains by crossing the Reach on foot or horse. They could also have gone by ship  to Dorne (Starfall, say) to reach the tower while crossing from Dorne into the Reach.

Ships happen to help you to prevent people to find out where you are headed, and if you switch ships at one of the Free Cities it would work even better. It wouldn't work perfectly, of course, but it could have given them a good start.

There is also a difference between the immediate aftermath of the abduction - when Rhaegar and Lyanna may have been forced to hide from Aerys because the man wanted to punish or kill them - and Aerys' later attempts (although not that late in the war, Merryweather did not serve as Hand that long into the Rebellion) to find Rhaegar to make him his Hand. At that point - assuming Rhaegar learned what his father was doing - he no longer was in need to really hide his whereabouts the way he would while he had reason to believe he and Lyanna were in (mortal) danger.

In fact, by the time Connington and Mooton were welcome at court again Aerys must have cooled down somewhat. Else Connington - Rhaegar's friend - wouldn't have been named Hand, nor would have Jon being willing to serve a man who was hunting his 'silver prince'.

But in the end this has little bearing on the final matter at hand - whether we have any reason to believe that Prince Rhaegar had any reason or inclination to hide his whereabouts and identity on his way from the tower back to KL.

That is the matter at hand, and if Rhaegar wanted to keep Lyanna's location hidden from his royal father he shouldn't have gone to KL (where Aerys could force him to reveal said location); instead, he should have commanded his friends to move Lyanna to a place neither he nor Hightower knew about. That would have been to keep her location a secret. Not commanding Hightower to stay at the tower.

[Alexis-something-Rose]

It's very possible that Jon Conn told Gerold Hightower where he might be able to find Rhaegar. He was the Hand of the King and he had to have returned to King's Landing after the Battle of the Bells. Jaime does give us a bit of a timeline of how things went down in KL after the outcome at Stoney Sept.

[SirArthur]

 

1 hour ago, -Shaggydog- said:

Assuming the raven is skinchanged by Bran

 

I come to the ultimate conclusion that Snow, James Snow is a piece of king sized Corn. I love selective reading. 

 

edit: and hello btw., I don't want to be rude. I'm just a visitor here, looking for some wild interpretation.  So don't mind me.