Yukle Posted March 14, 2018 Share Posted March 14, 2018 Lamb by 9% with 40% counted. Almost no results from Westmoreland so far, a Red stronghold, makes the chances of a change less likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mexal Posted March 14, 2018 Share Posted March 14, 2018 Just a friendly reminder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shryke Posted March 14, 2018 Share Posted March 14, 2018 2 hours ago, Yukle said: Maybe Trump just gets off on firing people. That was, after all, the only real part of The Apprentice. People have pointed out, after working on the show, he didn't actually own much any more, having been bankrupt so many times. He would hire you to do not much at all, same as him. He just got a thrill from saying, "You're fired!" Much as he did on the campaign trail. I sometimes wonder if, no matter what, he will end up firing a staff member for whatever invented reason because it's such a power trip for him. It's actually the opposite from any stories we have. The reason he fired Comey and Tillerson the way he did and the reason he hasn't fired Sessions is because apparently he's a huge fucking wuss and hates confrontation. His strategy is basically to make people miserable enough to quit on their own or fire them through an intermediary from a distance because he can't do it himself. Remember that everything about The Apprentice is an act. He's a wuss, an idiot and a bad business man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mexal Posted March 14, 2018 Share Posted March 14, 2018 For those following the NYT needle. Don't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMC Posted March 14, 2018 Share Posted March 14, 2018 8 minutes ago, Yukle said: Lamb by 9% with 40% counted. Almost no results from Westmoreland so far, a Red stronghold, makes the chances of a change less likely. Just now, Mexal said: For those following the NYT needle. Don't. Yeah I was gonna say - about a third of Westmoreland county has reported, and Saccone is not quite performing well enough there as he needs to as of yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMC Posted March 14, 2018 Share Posted March 14, 2018 Check that, over half: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yukle Posted March 14, 2018 Share Posted March 14, 2018 2 minutes ago, Mexal said: For those following the NYT needle. Don't. Dammit. I was wondering about the fact that none of the counties had been reported yet. Oh well. Based on the current results, it seems to be a narrow Saccone win. Which is different to what their needle says. I guess we'll know soon enough, with 61% now reporting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yukle Posted March 14, 2018 Share Posted March 14, 2018 1 minute ago, dmc515 said: Check that, over half: Now I think of it, what reason has Westmoreland for not reporting by district? That seems... oddly opaque of them. Nothing much can be done with that data, after all, it's just to help live estimates. Wait a few more hours and we know the result anyway, barring a very close call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shryke Posted March 14, 2018 Share Posted March 14, 2018 2 hours ago, Tywin et al. said: Eh, I'm of the opinion that the Republican party was already coming apart, and that Trump's victory is only delaying the inevitable. It would have been interesting to see what would have happened if Clinton had won. It's funny because it's ended up being a balancing act. On the one hand, the GOP is in complete demographic decline. They are dying hard. On the other hand, even without the rigging of the system they've done (and they've done a lot) the US system at basically every level advantages the Republican coalition. One of the Pod Save America guys (it was either Dan or Tommy) made a great point after the election on this: "Demographics may be destiny, but so is geography". Trump's white supremacist populism has done a lot to make the GOP viable again because the structure of the US system of government means the type of people who love that shit are hugely powerful. Controlling the Senate runs through a lot of places where they matter, as does the electoral college and such. Then you can throw on top of the differences in how the two groups vote and how the Democratic coalition is a lot more vulnerable to suppression tactics and a lack of excitement and the effects of Russian interference and you've a situation where the GOP can be coming apart and yet still extremely powerful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMC Posted March 14, 2018 Share Posted March 14, 2018 3 minutes ago, Yukle said: Now I think of it, what reason has Westmoreland for not reporting by district? I don't know. They don't like the NYT? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yukle Posted March 14, 2018 Share Posted March 14, 2018 5 minutes ago, dmc515 said: I don't know. They don't like the NYT? Maybe. The NYT has stopped estimating, saying they can't fairly model without the necessary data. Respect for that decision. Annoyed at why it is happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yukle Posted March 14, 2018 Share Posted March 14, 2018 Greene county now finished. A small one, obviously, but Lamb is slightly above what he needed based on earlier forecasts. Perhaps 1% ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fragile Bird Posted March 14, 2018 Author Share Posted March 14, 2018 This is going to go down to the wire. Earlier one of the commentators mentioned that the elections office got phone calls from across the state from people wanting to know why the heck their polling stations weren't open. People wanted to vote, dammit! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shryke Posted March 14, 2018 Share Posted March 14, 2018 So the House Democrats released their report on the Russia Investigation today. This one containing actual content and not just an attempt to cover up Trump's many crimes. Some interesting bits from Maddow: https://twitter.com/maddow/status/973690026226745346 https://twitter.com/maddow/status/973690766907322369 https://twitter.com/maddow/status/973692020928675840 https://twitter.com/maddow/status/973692807037808640 The first and last one especially are interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maithanet Posted March 14, 2018 Share Posted March 14, 2018 Well without NYT's tracker, I made my own in a spreadsheet. It uses the estimated margin of victories needed for each candidate from 538, the estimated percentage from each county from 538, and the margins we're seeing. It assumes that turnout is steady county by county (compared to previous elections). That is, if Allegheny county is low turnout, Greene also is. Obviously this is a crude model. As of 9:45, I have Lamb winning by 1.8%. We'll see how well that estimate does. Lots of votes left in Washington county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jace, Extat Posted March 14, 2018 Share Posted March 14, 2018 1 minute ago, Maithanet said: Well without NYT's tracker, I made my own in a spreadsheet. It uses the estimated margin of victories needed for each candidate from 538, the estimated percentage from each county from 538, and the margins we're seeing. It assumes that turnout is steady county by county (compared to previous elections). That is, if Allegheny county is low turnout, Greene also is. Obviously this is a crude model. As of 9:45, I have Lamb winning by 1.8%. We'll see how well that estimate does. Lots of votes left in Washington county. There's something about a man who knows his arithmetic that just sets my heart to racing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMC Posted March 14, 2018 Share Posted March 14, 2018 Oh joy: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maithanet Posted March 14, 2018 Share Posted March 14, 2018 Ok, just got a huge dump of votes in. That bunch was good for Saccone for sure, but he's running out of time, there aren't a ton of votes left. I have Lamb by 0.5% now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMC Posted March 14, 2018 Share Posted March 14, 2018 3 minutes ago, Maithanet said: It uses the estimated margin of victories needed for each candidate from 538, the estimated percentage from each county from 538, and the margins we're seeing. Yeah Saccone is almost exactly at his 538 benchmarks in Westmoreland and Washington. If Lamb keeps his margin in Allegheny he should win, but Wasserman says most of the outstanding precincts are in Moon Township. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yukle Posted March 14, 2018 Share Posted March 14, 2018 The margin is now within mandatory recount zone. 0.4% to Lamb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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