Cersei's thoughts about Joffrey's betrothal to Sansa

[John Suburbs]

18 hours ago, Nevets said:

Maidenheads are tougher than that.  Given her lack of physical development, I would be shocked if her hymen is broken.  To the best of our knowledge, it is still intact as of the end of Feast.  Credibility is important here, and we know what Robert thinks of Joffrey's credibility.  And what evidence do we have that Joffrey has any interest in scotching the betrothal, or any dislikeof Sansa prior to the wolf biting him.

Sigh. Once again, from Cersei's own POV

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FoC, Cersei IX, right after news of the Margaery's arrest is brought to court:

"If he says that he was part of this … no, it cannot be. Margaery is a maiden."

"She is not. I examined her myself, at the behest of His High Holiness. Her maidenhead is not intact. Septa Aglantine and Septa Melicent will say the same, as will Margaery's own septa Nysterica, who has been confined to a penitent's cell for her part in the queen's shame. Lady Megga and Lady Elinor were examined as well. Both were found to have been broken." 

The wasps were growing so loud that the queen could hardly hear herself think. I do hope the little queen and her cousins enjoyed those rides of theirs.

So Megga and Elinor, both recently flowered, are already broken. Are they really sluts, or was it the horse-riding as Cersei suspects? But even if this is an old wive's tale, the fact is that Cersei believes it, and Joffrey and Sansa spending the day riding with "wild abandon" is simply more evidence on top of all that I've already provided.

As I've explained countless times using clear facts taken directly from the text, Robert cannot judge Joffrey a liar and a raper any more than he can judge him guilty of abusing a butcher's boy. Yes, we know what Robert thinks of Joffrey's credibility, and still he cannot convict him of even a minor crime. What makes you think he could possible convict him of a major one like this?

It's not about Joffrey or Cersei liking or disliking Sansa. It is the Game of Thrones. Sansa is the piece they are using to take Ned off the board.

18 hours ago, Nevets said:

And whose fault is that?  Cersei is the one who sent them out together in the f irst place, as everybody there will remember.

Once again, you really should read before you post. That way, we can stop wasting our time with suggestions that are clearly and demonstrably wrong. Back to the text:

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"I fear we shall have to postpone your day with Myrcella. Please give your sweet sister my apologies. Joffrey, perhaps you would be so kind as to entertain our guest today."

There is absolutely no way that anyone is going to interpret "entertain our guest today" to mean "ditch your sworn shield and take her out riding in the wild and dangerous countryside."

18 hours ago, Nevets said:

And how is she going to arrange for them to be killed?  She has no reason to demand their deaths until the Trident, and isn't stupid enough to order it done by someone in her retinue.

Don't ask me. This is your idea. You contend that she "had it in" for the wolves way back at Winterfell. Are you saying that this was her plan all along: send Joffrey and Sansa out into the wild where they would happen upon Arya and her friend playing at swords, then provoke a fight so that Joffrey gets bit, and then when the one direwolf disappears she can execute the other and be rid of them both? Meanwhile, the true threat to her position at court, Ned, is still Hand and is still coming to King's Landing.

This is what happens when arguments based on fallacies meet their inevitable illogical conclusion.

18 hours ago, Nevets said:

Wars destroy any security apparatus, making it much easier to commit crimes and the like.  Outlaws thrive in a wartime environment.

Wars bring huge numbers of fighting men into a region in order to seize and maintain control of land. It is particularly difficult for outlaws to hide when soldiers are specifically trying to hunt you down. As we see, clearly from the text, the Riverland has ample places for outlaws to hide, in both war and peace.

18 hours ago, Nevets said:

Rodrik's comment applied to the North, which, with its unpopulated areas and wilderness, is good country for outlaws, as Bran discovered.  The Riverlands is flat, open, and well-populated.  Not good country for outlaws. What outlaws there are would likely be lying low with the King's party nearby.  

 And the text to support this conclusion is where? For someone who says absence of any statement that something is true is a clear indication of its falseness, then please show me where Rodrik says "The kings road can be perilous for a woman alone, but only in the north."

And I'll note that Joffrey and Sansa are not even on the kings road at this point. They are off riding through the countryside. Please, this fanfic that the riverlands is full to bursting with happy, contented peasants is quite laughable.

18 hours ago, Nevets said:

The King is the most important person inWesteros, and the Hand the second-most important.  Losing them unexpectedly would be calamitous and cause chaos, hence the guards, even in secure areas.  And Robert's unexpected death did cause chaos.  Plus see Melisandre's meditation on the trappings of power.  

While you would rather not lose a crown prince ,it wouldn't be a calamity, especially if the loss is due to his own irresponsibility and carelessness.  There is a spare, after all.

Hands can be replaced by any number of people. There is only one king and only two princes. To say that they would be so careless with Joff's life to the point of not even sending one guard to accompany him into strange, wild country, just because they have a spare, is absurd.

18 hours ago, Nevets said:

Not this rabbit hole again!  I find this even less convincing than the one in this thread, if that's even possible.

That's fine if you're not convinced. I never said there was proof of any of this. But to say that it is utterly impossible just because you know that "Martin doesn't write this way" is just plain silly.

[John Suburbs]

13 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

Is the difference that she's not riding? Other than that, nice disproof of your own statement!

No, the difference is that she is not wearing silks or jewels or any other trappings of wealth, so nobody knows she is a highborn. She looks like any number of other skinny, dirty, ragged smallfolk children up and down the column and out in the country.

13 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

Renly is certainly going against the queen when he urges Ned to seize her children. His argument might have gone better if he'd told Ned his meeting with Cersei at the Trident was a sham, but he doesn't think to make that argument.

Sure, but he says this in private conversation with Ned, not in full court where all can hear. He even has Ned send his own men out of earshot. At this point, they have a succession crisis on their hands and Ned is fully aware that the queen is a lying, scheming b. What good would it do to drag this up again, and that's even if Renly is smart enough to realize what really happened all those months ago. He's not the sharpest tool in the shed either.

13 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

Those are examples of how George has handled reveals. If blurting something out early will cause the story to collapse, then he won't do that, but that doesn't mean the audience doesn't get to hear. He can arrange for the reveal in a way that doesn't do that. The bit with Joffrey and the dagger is hardly even a reveal, just characters coming to a conclusion, which is more than we have here.

The "audience" has not heard one peep, by anyone, that Ned's story about Jon's mother is false. But the audience has heard multiple people saying that it is too dangerous for highborns to be out alone, and yet not one person says this fact does not apply to princes. So you want Martin to make it even more plainly obvious that this ride should not have happened in this way? Sorry, you're not going to get that. Like so many other Martin mysteries, you have to take what you know and puzzle it out for yourself.

14 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

Littlefinger's reputation is not really enhanced by his brags that he took the maidenheads of the Tully sisters. And if Sansa isn't actually deflowered, then there's no guarantee that she's lost hers. Margaery lost hers riding, but Sansa's dislike of riding makes it less likely that already happened. That she hypothetically could lose it by riding that very evening does not make it reliably the case that it would happen, which the plan would depend on.

Littlefinger seems to think it bolsters his rep, otherwise he wouldn't keep saying it. It does nothing for him, however, because most people think he is lying, not that it would be distasteful. It's the old double-standard: men who get sex are great lovers and much admired, women who get it are tramps and sluts.

Sansa's dislike of riding makes it all the more logical that she would lose it that way. She has very little experience on horseback, and yet on this particular day Joffrey leads her across country with "wild abandon." Full gallop, bouncing up and down over rough terrain. There's no guarantee about anything, but this is exactly the kind of plotting that Cersei is known for.

14 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

Daemon "the Rogue Prince" Targaryen wasn't banished when his japes were punished by making Rhaenyra declared heir instead of him, and Aerion Brightflame was merely sent to the free cities for a while after screwing up (not disinherited as he was not Maekar's heir at the time either). It was unnecessary to banish Aegon when Aerys set Viserys in front of him. Aemon was sent to the citadel to limit the number of people in succession. So disinheriting Joffrey does not require him to be sent to the wall. Tywin raided the Riverlands because Catelyn personally seized Tyrion at an inn. Ned thinks that part of his plan was to get the Tullys to retaliate so he could accuse them of breaking the king's peace while maintaining deniability about his own responsibility for the raids. We don't know what he would have done if Robert had his men seize Tyrion.

Not sure what the relevance here is. Were any of these people accused of rape or treasonous adultery? I suspect you have a point; I just don't see it.

Disinheriting Joffrey but allowing him to remain in the realm is a sure way to launch a civil war between your two sons.

14 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

The Targaryens actually inherit through the second set of children from a twice-married woman. After the Dance of the Dragons, the precedent was set that inheritance does not go through women (which would normally exclude Robert Baratheon). Yet Rhaneyra's son became king anyway, because he inherited through his father Daemon. There is thus no rule affecting inheritance even through a widow who had children from a prior marriage. And the Baratheons are in no place to deem Sansa unacceptable after that betrothal when their own heir was responsible for the deflowering. Renly was a rebel against the crown, so the demonstration of her maidenhead helps to distance her from him and justify the short wait before they are married.

Again, I'm not getting your point. Sansa would not be a twice-married woman, she would be a rape victim. Unfair as it may be, she would not be able to show her face in court ever again, and thus cannot be queen. The same would have gone for Lyanna if she had lived.

Robert is never in a million years going to convict his own son and heir of rape. The text is clear proof of that. So Sansa will be judged responsible for her own deflowering and therefore ineligible to be queen.

Margaery had to have her valiant, chivalrous brother, a knight anointed in the Faith of the Seven, to attest before the full court, and the High Septon, that she is still a maiden. Without that, she could not be offered Joffrey''s hand. If her maidenhead was of no concern, they wouldn't have bothered with this farce.

14 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

The mystery of Jon's parentage comes up repeatedly. It's a known unknown. In contrast, no character wonders about any of things you find inexplicable here.

It does not come up repeatedly. It is only mentioned twice after Ned dies, and both times the conversation is all about how Lyanna is not Jon's mother. And no one, ever, wonders whether Ned's story is true or not -- so much for this idea that Martin must voice these discrepancies in text or else they are just not true.

But as I've asked others on this thread, please post these hard and fast rules that dictate to Martin exactly how he can and cannot craft his story. I am truly interested in reading them, as I think they would settle a lot more arguments than this one.

14 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

Someone who was in on Cersei's plan would conclude the Hound had performed his part, requiring a good deal of trust for something so devious (Pycelle acts on assumptions because he's not always brought into such things). Tywin doesn't, but he also doesn't seem to think the Hound should be kept out due to failing in his duty to protect the Crown Prince. Nobody thinks that, just that the Hound generally doesn't adhere to knightly ideals.

The only people who need to be in on it are Cersei, Joffrey and Sandor, and even Sandor doesn't need to know the complete details. Tywin doesn't think the Hound should be given a white cloak because "you feed your dog bones under the table, you do not seat him beside you on the high bench." So we have no idea whether Tywin knows what happened on the Trident or not. But he's a sharp guy and can probably see through Cersei's subterfuge, even if most characters, and readers, cannot.

14 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

Robert thinks Joffrey is lying because he thinks of Joffrey as a generally bad kid who cut open a pregnant cat. The evidence before him was just he-said she-said, so his public decision was that each parent should discipline their own child (presumably expecting that Ned wouldn't actually discipline Arya). Cersei instigates the matter on behalf of Joffrey, rather than the Starks demanding justice for Joffrey's wrongs. Robert's choice is to set aside Cersei's complaint in a manner that costs him nothing. Losing the Stark betrothal actually would cost him something, and you can't assume he would prioritize protecting Joffrey's public image in that situation. And he doesn't declare Joffrey to be innocent here, just that he will discipline him as a parent in a situation where the only highborn with an injury was Joffrey himself.

This is exactly my point. Robert is convinced Joffrey is lying over this small matter of a butcher's boy, but he cannot even declare that openly. It is not a question of protecting Joffrey or his public image but of maintaining peace and stability in the realm. He doesn't rule that Joffrey is innocent, but he doesn't rule him guilty either, even though he knows he is, totally.

Yes, losing the Stark betrothal would be a huge loss to Robert, which is exactly why Sansa was Cersei's real target here, not Lady or Nymeria. Losing the wolf drove a tiny wedge between Robert and Ned. Imagine the break between these two if Sansa is branded a harlot and sent back to Winterfell.

14 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

Aerys had the pretense of a trial by combat for Rickard, in which his "champion" was wildfire. A charge of raping a highborn girl would require a trial her family would recognize as legitimate, not something Robert could dismiss like Joffrey's scars. If the Baratheons had made war over merely a broken betrothal, what will the Starks do when it's a betrothal broken via rape?

Absolutely not. All justice flows from the king. Whatever the king determines to be the truth, that is the rule of law. A family that feels they are mistreated has only one option: rebellion. And if the Starks did launch into open rebellion against the crown, my oh my how Cersei would love that.

Sorry friend, but the text is crystal clear on this point: Robert is unwilling to convict Joffrey of even a minor crime that he knows he is guilty of; there is no way he will convict him for rape of a highborn maid.

14 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

Did our own medievals believe that about pre-pubescent girls, holding an older male blameless? Societies with an "honor culture" which we find abhorrent for their treatment of rape victims tend to have low rates overall because the families of the rape victim will also lash out against the perpetrator (and possibly his family) rather than thinking "Women are wicked, therefore the man is blameless".

It isn't a question of blame; it is a question of shame. Sansa would never be able to perform her duties as queen because every time she appeared in court the talk would be about how she was despoiled and, then as now, what she did to bring it upon herself (basically, ride off alone with the prince without chaperone). Joffrey faces no such shame because it was Sansa who failed to use discretion to protect her own virtue. And as I've said, Robert will have no choice but to exonerate him.

14 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

As I said, the Starks aren't going to simply accept the king's say-so that Sansa was in the wrong and Joffrey was blameless. The king simply declaring his own heir innocent and effectively above the law would not be justice in their eyes. Peasants can be attacked with impunity, not members of great houses. Robert doesn't have dragons like Maegor to make everyone obey him, his reign rests on the shakier boundary of a faction of houses who declared him king, with the Starks his closest ally whom he was betrothed to at the time (a state which this betrothal is supposed to repair). As part of a war that put him on the throne, the Martells got shafted and denied justice (with officially no known perpetrator behind the deaths of Elia & her children, whereas here Joffrey has to claim he deflowered Sansa even if he didn't actually), but Robert isn't going to treat the Starks that way simply because Joffrey acted up.

And if this were to happen, Cersei would be dancing all throughout the Red Keep. She successfully manipulated the two men who stand in her way of assuming full political control over the realm. With any luck, they'll both kill each other in battle.

This is not Joffrey "acting up." This is a serious crime that, if judged guilty, despite the evidence against Sansa, I would add, would throw the realm into a succession crises, launching another civil war and most likely ending the Baratheon dynasty before it even started. For Robert, the political calculation is easy: rule against Sansa and the north may rise; rule against Joffrey and half the realm may rise to support him while half the realm does not.

[OtherFromAnotherMother]

5 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

More to the point of our discussion, please show me one example of anyone voicing doubt about Ned's story. There is none, therefore there is no way you can argue that Martin never places mysteries in his text without a character alerting you to the fact that what is widely believed is wrong. The central mystery of the story is done in exactly this way.

The central mystery to the story is not done even close to what you are proposing. Jon doesn't know who his mom is. The reader is told it could be three different women. It is a blatantly obvious mystery as to who Jon's mother is. You know this already, I do not need to dig up quotes on Wylla, Ashara, or the fisherman's daughter. Your proposal has nothing even close to this.

To compare your Trident Rape Ride mystery to the mystery George set up with Jon's parentage is absolutely ludacris. You are either arguing dishonestly or are trolling.

[OtherFromAnotherMother]

5 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Honestly, do you think that if Martin were to include a conversation where all of this came to light, that readers would be left wondering, what ride on the Trident? When did Joffrey get bitten by a direwolf?

Yes! Absolutely I do! 

Most members of this forum would remember, but most readers would not. 

[OtherFromAnotherMother]

5 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Lol, and the example you chose further diverts the reader away from RLJ. So not only is your argument that Martin always hints at his mysteries throughout the story incorrect, it is the complete polar opposite of what he actually does -- lay false trails and red herrings in order to keep you guessing.

My argument has nothing to do with any solutions to a mystery, just that there is no mystery on that ride which needs solving.

5 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Sorry to be blunt, but you don't understand him as well as you think you do.

How well do you think that I think I understand him? I didn't realize you knew me so well. 

[Nevets]

6 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

So Megga and Elinor, both recently flowered, are already broken. Are they really sluts, or was it the horse-riding as Cersei suspects? But even if this is an old wive's tale, the fact is that Cersei believes it, and Joffrey and Sansa spending the day riding with "wild abandon" is simply more evidence on top of all that I've already provided.

The problem is that neither Cersei nor Joffrey has any idea whether or not she has lost her maidenhead or not.  If Joffrey claims to have sex, and she is intact, Joff is looking quite bad indeed.  However stupid and paranoid she is, I can't believe Cersei would set up a half-assed, ill-conceived plan such as this.

6 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

As I've explained countless times using clear facts taken directly from the text, Robert cannot judge Joffrey a liar and a raper any more than he can judge him guilty of abusing a butcher's boy. Yes, we know what Robert thinks of Joffrey's credibility, and still he cannot convict him of even a minor crime. What makes you think he could possible convict him of a major one like this?

Of course he can.  Abusing the butcher's boy wasn't a crime, and Robert wasn't being asked to judge it.  He was determining whether the attacks on Joffrey by Arya and Nymeria were provoked or not.  Given that he had been arguing with Cersei over the last four days about punishing Arya, he was tired of dealing with it.  Given the lack of clear evidence, and the fact that Joffrey was the only one actually injured, he essentially punted, not really deciding anything at all.

If Sansa, a daughter of a great house, and his Hand's daughter, accuses Joffrey of a serious crime, Robert has to deal with it.  Now he could presumably hand it off to a tribunal for trial, but he can't essentially ignore it.  This is especially true if there is any kind of corroboration, such as injuries or any kind of witness..  And if Joffrey is found guilty by someone with authority to do so, with decent evidence, Tywin's not going to do shit.

6 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Once again, you really should read before you post. That way, we can stop wasting our time with suggestions that are clearly and demonstrably wrong. Back to the text:

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"I fear we shall have to postpone your day with Myrcella. Please give your sweet sister my apologies. Joffrey, perhaps you would be so kind as to entertain our guest today."

There is absolutely no way that anyone is going to interpret "entertain our guest today" to mean "ditch your sworn shield and take her out riding in the wild and dangerous countryside."

And you might want to read your own posts.   You suggested Cersei would make trouble about the fact they she was out with Joffrey, alone and unchaperoned, and got drunk.  Nothing about a ride. Cersei was the one that put them together in the first place.  As for the rest, Sansa couldn't arrange for Sandor's absence even if she wanted to, nor for a ride on Lannister horses.

6 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Don't ask me. This is your idea. You contend that she "had it in" for the wolves way back at Winterfell. Are you saying that this was her plan all along: send Joffrey and Sansa out into the wild where they would happen upon Arya and her friend playing at swords, then provoke a fight so that Joffrey gets bit, and then when the one direwolf disappears she can execute the other and be rid of them both? Meanwhile, the true threat to her position at court, Ned, is still Hand and is still coming to King's Landing.

This is what happens when arguments based on fallacies meet their inevitable illogical conclusion.

Obviously she didn't set it up. but when it happened she took the opportunity that presented itself to get rid of the wolves.

 

6 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

And I'll note that Joffrey and Sansa are not even on the kings road at this point. They are off riding through the countryside. Please, this fanfic that the riverlands is full to bursting with happy, contented peasants is quite laughable.

Well, they don't seem to be in a state of rebellion at this point either.

To be honest, I don't really care how safe it was.  Even if what they did was recklessly dangerous and stupid, which I doubt, my contention is that it is Joffrey who is to blame, for suggesting the ride and ditching the bodyguard.  Who, for specific story reasons, can't be there anyway. 

I am perfectly content with the notion that Sandor had no reason to think that they would be doing anything other than wandering about camp, and wanted to give Joffrey some space to be with his girlfriend.  And Joffrey is an entitled, little shit who thinks he can get away with anything, probably because he can.  Sandor wasn't punished, or at least not severely, because it wasn't his fault for giving Joffrey space in camp.  If he is in danger in his own camp, then they've got bigger problems than a temporarily absent bodyguard.

6 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

It's not about Joffrey or Cersei liking or disliking Sansa. It is the Game of Thrones. Sansa is the piece they are using to take Ned off the board.

And Joffrey cares because...?  He, at least, has no reason to be concerned about Ned.  And Cersei's reasons aren't the kind of thing she can mention to Joffrey in any case.  Nor has Cersei has never indicated any unease with Sansa's betrothal itself, either at that point in the story (conversation with Jaime, aka the info dump), or later, during her own POVs.

1 hour ago, OtherFromAnotherMother said:

Yes! Absolutely I do! 

Most members of this forum would remember, but most readers would not. 

Ask most readers what Joffrey and Sansa were doing before the fight, and they will probably respond "I have no idea" or "they went for a walk", which is what they did on the show (horses being a nuisance to film).  I've even seen comments on the Forum indicating that posters think they went for a walk.

Which is because the ride isn't all that important to the story, and hasn't been mentioned since.

 

[FictionIsntReal]

8 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

So Megga and Elinor, both recently flowered, are already broken. Are they really sluts, or was it the horse-riding as Cersei suspects? But even if this is an old wive's tale, the fact is that Cersei believes it, and Joffrey and Sansa spending the day riding with "wild abandon" is simply more evidence on top of all that I've already provided.

There's no reason to expect the maidenhead to be lost on a single ride. Margaery & her friends ride often, Sansa does not.

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As I've explained countless times using clear facts taken directly from the text, Robert cannot judge Joffrey a liar and a raper any more than he can judge him guilty of abusing a butcher's boy. Yes, we know what Robert thinks of Joffrey's credibility, and still he cannot convict him of even a minor crime. What makes you think he could possible convict him of a major one like this?

Joffrey isn't charged with abusing the butcher's boy, as that wouldn't really be a crime for him. The only matter in front of Robert is Joffrey's injury and Arya's responsibility, with both being nobles. Yet you persist in bringing up the butcher's boy. Nobody cares about him. That's a minor matter that Robert handles as a parent. A major matter like Joffrey raping Sansa would require a judicial process acceptable to a great house like the Starks.

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It's not about Joffrey or Cersei liking or disliking Sansa. It is the Game of Thrones. Sansa is the piece they are using to take Ned off the board.

Raping Sansa doesn't take Ned off the board, it just makes him their dedicated enemy earlier, and would greatly piss off Robert.

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Wars bring huge numbers of fighting men into a region in order to seize and maintain control of land. It is particularly difficult for outlaws to hide when soldiers are specifically trying to hunt you down. As we see, clearly from the text, the Riverland has ample places for outlaws to hide, in both war and peace.

It sounds like you completely failed to receive the message GRRM had about war. The lands are devastated by outlawry, whereas in King Robert's day "a maiden girl could walk the kingsroad in her nameday-gown and still go unmolested". We don't see outlawry in the Riverlands before the war breaks out.

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Hands can be replaced by any number of people. There is only one king and only two princes. To say that they would be so careless with Joff's life to the point of not even sending one guard to accompany him into strange, wild country, just because they have a spare, is absurd.

But they didn't send him out without any guards, because Cersei never told Sandor it was fine to stay back, because your theory is wrong. If she really did conspire with Sandor, then under your theory she would be recklessly risking Joffrey's life. Instead Joffrey decided to do this on his own, because he's a spoiled prince who disregards the rules, and Cersei is too indulgent to tell servants to stop listening to Joffrey.

7 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Sure, but he says this in private conversation with Ned, not in full court where all can hear. He even has Ned send his own men out of earshot. At this point, they have a succession crisis on their hands and Ned is fully aware that the queen is a lying, scheming b. What good would it do to drag this up again, and that's even if Renly is smart enough to realize what really happened all those months ago. He's not the sharpest tool in the shed either.

In front of everyone Renly mocks Joffrey for getting beat up by a little girl. That's what gets him sent out. Renly does not take any of that seriously, as he doesn't think it has any bearing on his scheme to replace Cersei. It's just kids stuff.

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The "audience" has not heard one peep, by anyone, that Ned's story about Jon's mother is false. But the audience has heard multiple people saying that it is too dangerous for highborns to be out alone, and yet not one person says this fact does not apply to princes. So you want Martin to make it even more plainly obvious that this ride should not have happened in this way? Sorry, you're not going to get that. Like so many other Martin mysteries, you have to take what you know and puzzle it out for yourself.

Multiple inconsistent candidates for Jon's mother have been put forward. Ned himself declines to tell anyone any details about Jon's mother, until Robert insists, and Robert doesn't know anything about the woman to be suspicious (although he does consider that very unusual for Ned). The kids leaving the column is not a "mystery" that ANYONE in the story thinks needs an explanation. Arya herself was doing it without any hidden motives, and Bran also disobeys rules his parents make for his safety. You think the lack of punishment for the Hound indicates a mystery, but none of the characters do, and Robert (not part of the hypothetical conspiracy) could have punished him if he actually thought it was some egregious shirking of duty.

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Littlefinger seems to think it bolsters his rep, otherwise he wouldn't keep saying it. It does nothing for him, however, because most people think he is lying, not that it would be distasteful. It's the old double-standard: men who get sex are great lovers and much admired, women who get it are tramps and sluts.

You state that Joffrey would be lying in your hypothetical, but in this case he could be proved a liar by examining Sansa's maidenhead, as he has no guarantee a single day's ride would break it.

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Sansa's dislike of riding makes it all the more logical that she would lose it that way. She has very little experience on horseback, and yet on this particular day Joffrey leads her across country with "wild abandon." Full gallop, bouncing up and down over rough terrain. There's no guarantee about anything, but this is exactly the kind of plotting that Cersei is known for.

Let's compare the plot Varys attributes to her of getting Robert to participate in the melee so he could be killed. If Robert doesn't take her advice, then nothing happens, the status quo remains and she can plot to have him killed some other way. If Robert participates and isn't killed, similar story. If he participates and is killed, it will be chalked up to the risks of a melee, and since she argued against him participated, she hardly looks culpable. Having Joffrey falsely claim he took Sansa's maidenhead actually would have drastic consequences. It's insanely risky for her.

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Not sure what the relevance here is. Were any of these people accused of rape or treasonous adultery? I suspect you have a point; I just don't see it.

I was looking over previous instances of heirs being disinherited.

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Disinheriting Joffrey but allowing him to remain in the realm is a sure way to launch a civil war between your two sons.

We have no evidence that Aerion Brightflame's son Maegor was banished, or that Aerys intended to banish Rhaegar's son Aegon. Daemon might have wanted to fight for his inheritance because that's the kind of man he was, but instead the war was between Rhaenyra & Aegon II (because there were two conflicting precedents). Aemon was supposed to be removed from the succession by merely sending him to the citadel, though things got more complicated later (without a civil war). Inconvenient children have been sent to the faith before. Aerion Brightflame was sent to Essos (temporarily, as he merely made a false accusation against a hedge knight), and that is a possibility for Joffrey other than the wall.

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Again, I'm not getting your point. Sansa would not be a twice-married woman, she would be a rape victim. Unfair as it may be, she would not be able to show her face in court ever again, and thus cannot be queen. The same would have gone for Lyanna if she had lived.

Rhaenyra wasn't merely a twice-married woman, but a notorious adulteress whose eldest children were denounced as bastards by the Greens.

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Robert is never in a million years going to convict his own son and heir of rape. The text is clear proof of that. So Sansa will be judged responsible for her own deflowering and therefore ineligible to be queen.

He won't be in a position to do so, as a great house like the Stark's are entitled to more than the king's say-so. There will be an actual trial, not just Robert acting as a one-man jury.

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Margaery had to have her valiant, chivalrous brother, a knight anointed in the Faith of the Seven, to attest before the full court, and the High Septon, that she is still a maiden. Without that, she could not be offered Joffrey''s hand. If her maidenhead was of no concern, they wouldn't have bothered with this farce.

Margaery was married to a false king rebelling against Joffrey, and there couldn't be any suspicion that the next child she bore belonged to Renly. Cersei had long been having an affair with her twin, but nobody checked her maidenhead.

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It does not come up repeatedly. It is only mentioned twice after Ned dies, and both times the conversation is all about how Lyanna is not Jon's mother. And no one, ever, wonders whether Ned's story is true or not -- so much for this idea that Martin must voice these discrepancies in text or else they are just not true.

Nobody mentions Lyanna as a possible mother for Jon, so it's less that they are explicitly arguing against it than giving other mutually incompatible options. The mutual incompatibility makes it a mystery. The characters in the story don't have Watsonian reasons to disbelieve Ned, as it is common for noblemen to father bastards, particularly in war. As Harwin noted, it was Brandon rather than Ned who was betrothed to Catelyn, and they only spent one night together before Ned left. Your argument is that Cersei's behavior is so inexplicable that there must be a hidden motive behind it, but the other characters are aware of her reaction to the ride without finding it a mystery (unlike Jon's parentage).

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The only people who need to be in on it are Cersei, Joffrey and Sandor, and even Sandor doesn't need to know the complete details. Tywin doesn't think the Hound should be given a white cloak because "you feed your dog bones under the table, you do not seat him beside you on the high bench." So we have no idea whether Tywin knows what happened on the Trident or not. But he's a sharp guy and can probably see through Cersei's subterfuge, even if most characters, and readers, cannot.
 

You think Tywin would see through the subterfuge, but no character in the books thinks anything of it.

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This is exactly my point. Robert is convinced Joffrey is lying over this small matter of a butcher's boy, but he cannot even declare that openly. It is not a question of protecting Joffrey or his public image but of maintaining peace and stability in the realm. He doesn't rule that Joffrey is innocent, but he doesn't rule him guilty either, even though he knows he is, totally.

STOP TALKING ABOUT THE BUTCHER'S BOY. Robert, Cersei & Ned aren't talking about him because he's nothing to them. It's about Joffrey vs Arya, and Robert's decision is that the parent of each should discipline their own child. As Robert thinks Joffrey is bad, he can be smacked behind closed doors, whereas Ned can do nothing with Arya (even for the supposedly big deal of leaving the column).

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Yes, losing the Stark betrothal would be a huge loss to Robert, which is exactly why Sansa was Cersei's real target here, not Lady or Nymeria. Losing the wolf drove a tiny wedge between Robert and Ned. Imagine the break between these two if Sansa is branded a harlot and sent back to Winterfell.

Robert doesn't simply accept huge losses like that. Cersei wouldn't get away with it. Disinheriting Joffrey is something Robert would like to do, giving him a public reason for doing so is too dumb even for Cersei.

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Absolutely not. All justice flows from the king. Whatever the king determines to be the truth, that is the rule of law. A family that feels they are mistreated has only one option: rebellion. And if the Starks did launch into open rebellion against the crown, my oh my how Cersei would love that.

If the Starks demand trial by combat, that cannot be denied (though Aerys tried to do so). Tyrion has been put on trial twice by people who hate him and each time had his request for that granted. Aegon IV was an atrocious king who tried to muddy the waters of his own heir's paternity, but the trial by combat went the other way.

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Sorry friend, but the text is crystal clear on this point: Robert is unwilling to convict Joffrey of even a minor crime that he knows he is guilty of; there is no way he will convict him for rape of a highborn maid.

JOFFREY ISN'T BEING ACCUSED OF THE NON-CRIME OF ATTACKING THE BUTCHER'S BOY. Arya is being accused of attacking Joffrey.

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It isn't a question of blame; it is a question of shame. Sansa would never be able to perform her duties as queen because every time she appeared in court the talk would be about how she was despoiled and, then as now, what she did to bring it upon herself (basically, ride off alone with the prince without chaperone). Joffrey faces no such shame because it was Sansa who failed to use discretion to protect her own virtue. And as I've said, Robert will have no choice but to exonerate him.

Robert won't have the option of exonerating him, and queens have appeared in court under worse clouds than that.

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And if this were to happen, Cersei would be dancing all throughout the Red Keep. She successfully manipulated the two men who stand in her way of assuming full political control over the realm. With any luck, they'll both kill each other in battle.

Robert doesn't want to fight Ned, so he won't. Robert will be fine with whatever justice the Starks can get of Joffrey.

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This is not Joffrey "acting up." This is a serious crime that, if judged guilty, despite the evidence against Sansa, I would add, would throw the realm into a succession crises, launching another civil war and most likely ending the Baratheon dynasty before it even started. For Robert, the political calculation is easy: rule against Sansa and the north may rise; rule against Joffrey and half the realm may rise to support him while half the realm does not.

Why would half the realm rise to ensure that Joffrey rather than Tommen is heir? Joffrey hasn't built up any personal political connections.

[OtherFromAnotherMother]

2 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

If she really did conspire with Sandor, then under your theory she would be recklessly risking Joffrey's life. Instead Joffrey decided to do this on his own, because he's a spoiled prince who disregards the rules, and Cersei is too indulgent to tell servants to stop listening to Joffrey.

This is a great point. This theory cannot stand on both legs. If the Riverlands are so dangerous that they should have a guard (as @John Suburbs explains they should) then why would Cersei concoct such a dangerous scheme by sending her first born alone? There is no way Cersei would put Joff at risk if it were so dangerous.

Either it was not that dangerous, which means they don't need a guard, therefore being reasonable for them to be out alone or Cersei was willing to put her son's life at risk to hopefully be able to take down Ned. 

2 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

The kids leaving the column is not a "mystery" that ANYONE in the story thinks needs an explanation. Arya herself was doing it without any hidden motives, and Bran also disobeys rules his parents make for his safety. You think the lack of punishment for the Hound indicates a mystery, but none of the characters do, and Robert (not part of the hypothetical conspiracy) could have punished him if he actually thought it was some egregious shirking of duty.

Well stated.

2 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

You state that Joffrey would be lying in your hypothetical, but in this case he could be proved a liar by examining Sansa's maidenhead, as he has no guarantee a single day's ride would break it.

Another inconsistency with Joff's hypothetical "Sansa tried to rape me" tale is that it would be completely out of his character. Joff sees himself as a tough guy, puffed up stud. He's going to tell a story that an 11 year old girl tried to rape him? (Or was it that he rapes her? I feel like this part of the theory has changed along the way...) Either way Joff comes out looking awful, which is not at all what his character is about.

I suppose John S could say that Cersei tells the tale for him, but eventually Joff would have to confirm what happened, which would make him look bad and be totally out if character. 

[John Suburbs]

18 hours ago, OtherFromAnotherMother said:

The central mystery to the story is not done even close to what you are proposing. Jon doesn't know who his mom is. The reader is told it could be three different women. It is a blatantly obvious mystery as to who Jon's mother is. You know this already, I do not need to dig up quotes on Wylla, Ashara, or the fisherman's daughter. Your proposal has nothing even close to this.

To compare your Trident Rape Ride mystery to the mystery George set up with Jon's parentage is absolutely ludacris. You are either arguing dishonestly or are trolling.

What is irrelevant is your argument that Martin is somehow bound by an invisible rule of literature that he can only craft his story by laying "blatantly obvious" clues throughout the text. Not all mysteries carry the same gravitas, but the patterns he uses for RLJ are exactly the ones you say eliminate the possibility for a mystery on the Trident:

No character questions why the Hound was not with the prince = No character ever once questions Ned's story about Jon

No reveal even after four novels = No reveal even after four novels

Only one mention of the Trident after the first novel = Only two mentions of Jon's mother after the first novel

Like all mysteries in aSoIaF, this one is unique. It occupies a unique position in the story, carries a unique set of consequences, and has a unique set of clues to guide the reader. Honestly, mother, your argument on this point is essentially: "No, this cannot be possible because nowhere else in the story does Martin have a mystery surround Sansa and Joffrey alone together on the Trident."

Heck, we've even had mysteries revealed where there was absolutely no indication that the previous story was all a big lie. If someone had told you after Feast that it's possible that Aegon is still alive and JonCon was planning his return to power, you would pose these exact same arguments, and you would have ample text to back up your incorrect conclusion.

18 hours ago, OtherFromAnotherMother said:

Yes! Absolutely I do! 

Most members of this forum would remember, but most readers would not. 

Wow, not only no respect for Martin, but you think his readers are complete idiots as well.

18 hours ago, OtherFromAnotherMother said:

My argument has nothing to do with any solutions to a mystery, just that there is no mystery on that ride which needs solving.

How well do you think that I think I understand him? I didn't realize you knew me so well. 

Check your previous posts. The essence of you argument is that this idea is utterly impossible because Martin would not do it this way -- a claim I have clearly debunked. The basis for your conclusion is that "I understand Martin."

So if you will allow me to clarify your position for you, it's not that this idea is impossible, just that you are not convinced because there is not enough evidence to reach a firm conclusion. Well guess what? I agree with you. I never said any of this is certain, just that the circumstances around this whole event are suspect, and a plot by Cersei in this manner would be in perfect conformity with the text and the characterizations of the principal players here.

11 hours ago, OtherFromAnotherMother said:

This is a great point. This theory cannot stand on both legs. If the Riverlands are so dangerous that they should have a guard (as @John Suburbs explains they should) then why would Cersei concoct such a dangerous scheme by sending her first born alone? There is no way Cersei would put Joff at risk if it were so dangerous.

Either it was not that dangerous, which means they don't need a guard, therefore being reasonable for them to be out alone or Cersei was willing to put her son's life at risk to hopefully be able to take down Ned. 

How can you be certain she did not? A few outriders who are good with bows would have the skills to track the Prince without being seen and eliminate any foes from a distance if necessary.

11 hours ago, OtherFromAnotherMother said:

Well stated.

Already addressed above. Robert is very forgiving: a bent knee and an apology is all it takes. Cersei is not so forgiving.

11 hours ago, OtherFromAnotherMother said:

Another inconsistency with Joff's hypothetical "Sansa tried to rape me" tale is that it would be completely out of his character. Joff sees himself as a tough guy, puffed up stud. He's going to tell a story that an 11 year old girl tried to rape him? (Or was it that he rapes her? I feel like this part of the theory has changed along the way...) Either way Joff comes out looking awful, which is not at all what his character is about.

I suppose John S could say that Cersei tells the tale for him, but eventually Joff would have to confirm what happened, which would make him look bad and be totally out if character. 

Sansa does not like horses. She has very little experience riding or any other vigorous activity. The chances of having an intact maidenhead that morning are very high, and the chances that it will break during a day of hard riding are also very high. He will say that Sansa seduced him, which will make him look better in this male dominated, double-standard culture because he will become the prince that girls just can't keep their hands from. Sansa, meanwhile, is sent home in shame, along with her father.

 

P.S.: I forgot to ask you when you first mentioned your posting problems: are you getting security warnings as well? I got a few pop-ups earlier in the week but the stopped. Just curious.

[Nevets]

4 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Sansa does not like horses. She has very little experience riding or any other vigorous activity. The chances of having an intact maidenhead that morning are very high, and the chances that it will break during a day of hard riding are also very high. He will say that Sansa seduced him, which will make him look better in this male dominated, double-standard culture because he will become the prince that girls just can't keep their hands from. Sansa, meanwhile, is sent home in shame, along with her father.

Wow.  This reminds me of the line from The Last Jedi, when Luke Skywalker tells a couple of people at different times, "Every statement you have just made is wrong."  Or at least highly questionable.

Sansa says she doesn't like horses.  But she also is able to keep up with Joffrey through woods and other rough terrain, suggesting a decent amount of experience.  In any event, it is extensive vigorous activity that tends to break it, so her not being active would make it less likely that it would be in a position to break.  The likelihood of any single activity, short of intercourse, breaking it is extremely small, especially in a pre-pubescent girl (such as Sansa)

If he forces himself on her, and there are signs of a struggle, he is toast.  In any other case, we don't know how it will be received by Robert or those around him,, who would be the main ones doing the judging,, but to say that sansa would definitely get shamed I think is highly inaccurate.

If he doesn't have sex, but says he did (why?) and an exam shows her to be intact, then he is going to have a lot of explaining to do.  Throwing Cersei under the bus then becomes a possibility.  Also if his rape trial goes badly, he might try to take her down with himself.

Sorry, but this portion of the post is completely ridiculous, as is your theory.

[John Suburbs]

21 hours ago, Nevets said:

The problem is that neither Cersei nor Joffrey has any idea whether or not she has lost her maidenhead or not.  If Joffrey claims to have sex, and she is intact, Joff is looking quite bad indeed.  However stupid and paranoid she is, I can't believe Cersei would set up a half-assed, ill-conceived plan such as this.

It's about as safe a bet as you can make. Sansa doesn't like horses, her riding experience is minimal, she isn't known for any other vigorous or strenuous activity; she sings and does needlework like a good little highborn lady should. Now, all of a sudden, she's spending an entire day riding around with "wild abandon."

Pretty much everything Cersei does is half-assed and ill-conceived. How could she possibly know that Robert would die on this particularly hunting trip just because he's drunk? He's drunk all the time and goes hunting frequently.

21 hours ago, Nevets said:

Of course he can.  Abusing the butcher's boy wasn't a crime, and Robert wasn't being asked to judge it.  He was determining whether the attacks on Joffrey by Arya and Nymeria were provoked or not.  Given that he had been arguing with Cersei over the last four days about punishing Arya, he was tired of dealing with it.  Given the lack of clear evidence, and the fact that Joffrey was the only one actually injured, he essentially punted, not really deciding anything at all.

If Sansa, a daughter of a great house, and his Hand's daughter, accuses Joffrey of a serious crime, Robert has to deal with it.  Now he could presumably hand it off to a tribunal for trial, but he can't essentially ignore it.  This is especially true if there is any kind of corroboration, such as injuries or any kind of witness..  And if Joffrey is found guilty by someone with authority to do so, with decent evidence, Tywin's not going to do shit.

Well if he can, then why doesn't he? He knows what the facts are: Joffrey is lying. As king, his responsibility is to pass just and fair judgement, but instead, to use your words, he punted -- all because he could not bring himself to accuse his son and heir of this minor transgression. Why? Because it would destabilize the realm and weaken his hold on power.

All of the evidence will be against Sansa: she is drunk, she is sweaty and disheveled, her hymen has been broken, and she went willingly off into the woods alone with the prince to begin with. In this day and age, most people, even Ned, would conclude that she got what was coming to her. Again, get your head out of the 21st Century and into the heads of a pre-enlightened feudal society.

Yes, Robert has to deal with it. And he will deal with it in the way that causes the least injury to his realm: exonerate his son and risk alienating just the north, rather than find him guilty and watch the realm get torn apart as half the houses support Joffrey and the other half side for Tommen.

21 hours ago, Nevets said:

And you might want to read your own posts.   You suggested Cersei would make trouble about the fact they she was out with Joffrey, alone and unchaperoned, and got drunk.  Nothing about a ride. Cersei was the one that put them together in the first place.  As for the rest, Sansa couldn't arrange for Sandor's absence even if she wanted to, nor for a ride on Lannister horses.

What are you talking about? What possible difference could it make if they were running, riding, doing cartwheels... ? The fact is Sansa is back at the column drunk and disheveled and Cersei puts on a show in front of everybody, probably including Ned and Robert, asking where they've been all day, which is Joffrey's cue to lay a charge of seduction on her. Cersei told the prince to entertain her; there is no way in the world anyone would interpret that as a mother giving license to her young son to take a highborn maid out into the woods and molest her.

Where are you getting the idea that Sansa arranged for the Hound to disappear, or that she chose to ride? Why would she do that?

21 hours ago, Nevets said:

Obviously she didn't set it up. but when it happened she took the opportunity that presented itself to get rid of the wolves.

Wrong. When her original plan crapped out, she made the most of it that she could.

21 hours ago, Nevets said:

Well, they don't seem to be in a state of rebellion at this point either.

To be honest, I don't really care how safe it was.  Even if what they did was recklessly dangerous and stupid, which I doubt, my contention is that it is Joffrey who is to blame, for suggesting the ride and ditching the bodyguard.  Who, for specific story reasons, can't be there anyway. 

I am perfectly content with the notion that Sandor had no reason to think that they would be doing anything other than wandering about camp, and wanted to give Joffrey some space to be with his girlfriend.  And Joffrey is an entitled, little shit who thinks he can get away with anything, probably because he can.  Sandor wasn't punished, or at least not severely, because it wasn't his fault for giving Joffrey space in camp.  If he is in danger in his own camp, then they've got bigger problems than a temporarily absent bodyguard.

 

What does rebellion have to do with anything? There are brigands and bandits and unsavory characters all the time, in peace and war. This is not a Disney movie with happy kingdoms and nothing but pleasant, prosperous peasants. Honestly, you're view of this world is about as far from reality as Sansa's is at this point in the story. To coin a phrase: "Life is not a song, sweetling."

Cersei would not see it that way. Joffrey does not have the authority to simply dismiss Sandor. If he followed that order he would be violating the standing order that he has received directly from the king and the queen. What "specific reasons" prevent him from doing his sworn duty? Joffrey told him to back off Sansa, and Sandor interpreted that is "take the rest of the day off." A gross dereliction of duty, deserving of a punishment at least as severe as Cersei meted out to other guards who failed to protect their charges -- even more severe in fact because those others merely failed to perform their duties well enough, they didn't blow them off entirely.

It was Sandor's fault. If Joffrey wanted to spend the day escorting Sansa around the inn, then it was Sandor's sworn responsibility to accompany them, at a respectful distance if need be but always on the alert for potential trouble. There are no walls around a camp, and it is teeming with small folk, so Joffrey needs protection even then.

21 hours ago, Nevets said:

And Joffrey cares because...?  He, at least, has no reason to be concerned about Ned.  And Cersei's reasons aren't the kind of thing she can mention to Joffrey in any case.  Nor has Cersei has never indicated any unease with Sansa's betrothal itself, either at that point in the story (conversation with Jaime, aka the info dump), or later, during her own POVs.

Lol, why can't Cersei mention her reasoning to Joffrey? She needs his buy-in to this plan, and Joffrey is clearly disdainful of the north, northerners, and Winterfell and the Starks in particular. In fact, if my larger suspicion is correct, this will corroborate everything that Littlefinger told Joffrey that prompted him to send the catspaw.

Cersei has stated strong unease, downright paranoia in fact, of Ned becoming Hand. This betrothal is part of the alliance that would bind House Stark to the Iron Throne, something she is desperate to prevent. Again, it's got nothing to do with Sansa herself; she is merely the piece in Cersei's Game of Thrones.

This notion that if a POV does not state something definitively in their minds therefore it cannot be true is flat out wrong. We have plenty of Ned POVs where he is thinking about Lyanna and her bloody bed and the promise she demanded, and not once does he express a thought that Lyanna is Jon's mother.

22 hours ago, Nevets said:

Ask most readers what Joffrey and Sansa were doing before the fight, and they will probably respond "I have no idea" or "they went for a walk", which is what they did on the show (horses being a nuisance to film).  I've even seen comments on the Forum indicating that posters think they went for a walk.

Which is because the ride isn't all that important to the story, and hasn't been mentioned since.

Of course the ride itself is not important. What's important is the fact that they went off alone together, and Sansa went willingly. If they had spent the afternoon in Joffrey's room at the inn drinking wine and making out, the affect would be the same: Sansa is the one shamed for allowing herself to get into a compromising position.

Any reader who is whipsawed by this revelation merely has to look back to that chapter and suddenly it will all make sense.

 

 

[Nevets]

40 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

It's about as safe a bet as you can make. Sansa doesn't like horses, her riding experience is minimal, she isn't known for any other vigorous or strenuous activity; she sings and does needlework like a good little highborn lady should. Now, all of a sudden, she's spending an entire day riding around with "wild abandon."

This is about the biggest piece of BS I've seen yet.  Hymens don't break that easily.  By the way Elinor and Megga are roughly Margaery's age, not "recently flowered", and have been riding horses for years.  Give it up.  The hole you're digging is getting deeper.

42 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

Cersei told the prince to entertain her; there is no way in the world anyone would interpret that as a mother giving license to her young son to take a highborn maid out into the woods and molest her.

Of course not.  Which is why Joffrey is going to get a good share of whatever blame there is.

43 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

Where are you getting the idea that Sansa arranged for the Hound to disappear, or that she chose to ride? Why would she do that?

I didn't.  I said she couldn't arrange such, and that therefore any blame would fall on Joffrey.

45 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

What does rebellion have to do with anything? There are brigands and bandits and unsavory characters all the time, in peace and war. This is not a Disney movie with happy kingdoms and nothing but pleasant, prosperous peasants. Honestly, you're view of this world is about as far from reality as Sansa's is at this point in the story. To coin a phrase: "Life is not a song, sweetling."

No.  But I see no reason to expect robbers around every corner, either.  And the Riverlands has too many possible informants (aka  local peasantry) and too few good hiding places to be good outlaw country.

49 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

Cersei would not see it that way. Joffrey does not have the authority to simply dismiss Sandor. If he followed that order he would be violating the standing order that he has received directly from the king and the queen. What "specific reasons" prevent him from doing his sworn duty? Joffrey told him to back off Sansa, and Sandor interpreted that is "take the rest of the day off."

Do we have any specific text as to who Sandor actually takes orders from?  I am curious about that.  I don't think sandor took the "rest of the day off."  I think he simply lost track of them.  The fact is, if Joffrey want to ditch him, he will probably find a way to do so.

53 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

It was Sandor's fault. If Joffrey wanted to spend the day escorting Sansa around the inn, then it was Sandor's sworn responsibility to accompany them, at a respectful distance if need be but always on the alert for potential trouble. There are no walls around a camp, and it is teeming with small folk, so Joffrey needs protection even then.

A military camp is going to have barriers to keep people from wandering in and funnel them to guarded entrances.  Joffrey should be safe.  By the way, there is no inn.  That is the show.

56 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

Of course the ride itself is not important. What's important is the fact that they went off alone together, and Sansa went willingly. If they had spent the afternoon in Joffrey's room at the inn drinking wine and making out, the affect would be the same: Sansa is the one shamed for allowing herself to get into a compromising position.

They were alone together at the instigation and initiative of Cersei and Joffrey.  I am quite skeptical that Ssansa would get all, or even most , of the blame if anything untoward did happen, which it did not.  By the way, Joffrey is waiting an awful long time to actually do anything. Unless Arya and Mycah traveled a lot farther on foot to play swords than I think they did, they are almost back to camp by the end of the chapter.  A location where doing anything would risk witnesses.

[Lee-Sensei]

40 minutes ago, Nevets said:

Do we have any specific text as to who Sandor actually takes orders from?  I am curious about that.  I don't think sandor took the "rest of the day off."  I think he simply lost track of them.  The fact is, if Joffrey want to ditch him, he will probably find a way to do so.

He remembered a cold morning when he'd climbed down the steep exterior steps from Winterfell's library to find Prince Joffrey jesting with the Hound about killing wolves. Send a dog to kill a wolf, he said. Even Joffrey was not so foolish as to command Sandor Clegane to slay a son of Eddard Stark, however; the Hound would have gone to Cersei.

[FictionIsntReal]

6 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

No character questions why the Hound was not with the prince = No character ever once questions Ned's story about Jon

Catelyn asks Ned about Ashara, Robert asks Ned about who Jon's mother is. It's a mystery to both characters (as well as to Jon himself). Sansa & Joffrey going off along is not considered to be a mystery needing an explanation by anyone. The characters in the story do not have any Watsonian reason to suspect that Ned Stark is lying about Jon being his bastard, readers think otherwise because they have information those characters lack. Your arguments have been based on facts which would be public knowledge to characters who don't see them as requiring any explanation.

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Only one mention of the Trident after the first novel = Only two mentions of Jon's mother after the first novel

Again, one is considered a mystery and one is not. A character may bring up "the Trident", but not Sandor's absence.

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Heck, we've even had mysteries revealed where there was absolutely no indication that the previous story was all a big lie. If someone had told you after Feast that it's possible that Aegon is still alive and JonCon was planning his return to power, you would pose these exact same arguments, and you would have ample text to back up your incorrect conclusion.

Aegon/Young Griff really was out of left field. There doesn't seem to be any indication in the prior books. Different here, where you think the first book planted a mystery, but nobody else sees anything there. If someone reading the first book claimed that Aegon was actually alive but replaced by another baby, I would need look at them skeptically. And my impression is that most folks here call him "fAegon" and disbelieve the story of his rescue.

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So if you will allow me to clarify your position for you, it's not that this idea is impossible, just that you are not convinced because there is not enough evidence to reach a firm conclusion. Well guess what? I agree with you. I never said any of this is certain, just that the circumstances around this whole event are suspect, and a plot by Cersei in this manner would be in perfect conformity with the text and the characterizations of the principal players here.

Replace "not enough evidence" with "essentially no evidence". And absence of evidence is a sort of evidence of absence, if not completely definitive.

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How can you be certain she did not? A few outriders who are good with bows would have the skills to track the Prince without being seen and eliminate any foes from a distance if necessary.

The conspiracy keeps getting more elaborate. She also needs these hypothetical outriders who are told to stay out of sight to maintain the illusion that Joffrey wouldn't ask Sandor to stay away (an order she had secretly told Sandor to expect & obey), and these outriders don't intervene when Joffrey gets attacked by a direwolf.

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Sansa does not like horses. She has very little experience riding or any other vigorous activity. The chances of having an intact maidenhead that morning are very high, and the chances that it will break during a day of hard riding are also very high. He will say that Sansa seduced him, which will make him look better in this male dominated, double-standard culture because he will become the prince that girls just can't keep their hands from. Sansa, meanwhile, is sent home in shame, along with her father.

I don't think you have a clue about how likely it is that Sansa would break her maidenhead in a single day's riding.

1 hour ago, John Suburbs said:

It's about as safe a bet as you can make. Sansa doesn't like horses, her riding experience is minimal, she isn't known for any other vigorous or strenuous activity; she sings and does needlework like a good little highborn lady should. Now, all of a sudden, she's spending an entire day riding around with "wild abandon."

You keep quoting the phrase "wild abandon", but A Search of Ice and Fire doesn't have it turning up anywhere. And again, this is not a safe bet at all.

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Pretty much everything Cersei does is half-assed and ill-conceived. How could she possibly know that Robert would die on this particularly hunting trip just because he's drunk? He's drunk all the time and goes hunting frequently.

Cersei couldn't be sure that Robert would be killed by a boar, but it cost her nothing to have Lancel give him strongwine.

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Well if he can, then why doesn't he? He knows what the facts are: Joffrey is lying. As king, his responsibility is to pass just and fair judgement, but instead, to use your words, he punted -- all because he could not bring himself to accuse his son and heir of this minor transgression. Why? Because it would destabilize the realm and weaken his hold on power.

ARYA IS THE ONE BEING ACCUSED BY CERSEI & JOFFREY. Joffrey is the one who was injured. Robert is punting rather than taking Cersei's claim seriously. Robert doesn't outright call Joffrey a liar because his basis for that is just his pre-existing dislike of Joffrey. In this case, the only cost of Joffrey's lie is a direwolf that Robert doesn't think should be in King's Landing anyway.

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All of the evidence will be against Sansa: she is drunk, she is sweaty and disheveled, her hymen has been broken, and she went willingly off into the woods alone with the prince to begin with. In this day and age, most people, even Ned, would conclude that she got what was coming to her. Again, get your head out of the 21st Century and into the heads of a pre-enlightened feudal society.

Nowhere do we get Ned thinking that Sansa ought to be ashamed of going riding alone with Joffrey and drinking wine. You keep accusing everyone else of failing to grasp the mindset of these characters, but none of us have any confidence in your ability to do so.

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Yes, Robert has to deal with it. And he will deal with it in the way that causes the least injury to his realm: exonerate his son and risk alienating just the north, rather than find him guilty and watch the realm get torn apart as half the houses support Joffrey and the other half side for Tommen.

Why would half the realm support Joffrey vs Tommen? Both are too young to have political allies. That youth is what helped make Maegor & Aegon easy to disinherit.

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What does rebellion have to do with anything? There are brigands and bandits and unsavory characters all the time, in peace and war. This is not a Disney movie with happy kingdoms and nothing but pleasant, prosperous peasants. Honestly, you're view of this world is about as far from reality as Sansa's is at this point in the story. To coin a phrase: "Life is not a song, sweetling.

We don't hear of any brigands & bandits in the riverlands until war breaks out (then we hear a lot about them). I even quoted a character (who was probably being hyperbolic) on how safe the kingsroad used to be. And if it was really that obviously dangerous (in their actual experience, it was not), then Cersei wouldn't have asked Joffrey to put himself in danger that way.

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Lol, why can't Cersei mention her reasoning to Joffrey? She needs his buy-in to this plan, and Joffrey is clearly disdainful of the north, northerners, and Winterfell and the Starks in particular. In fact, if my larger suspicion is correct, this will corroborate everything that Littlefinger told Joffrey that prompted him to send the catspaw.

Joffrey is highly unreliable. Nobody entrusts him with anything. Cersei later finds herself completely unable to control Joffrey. The consistent pattern is that he does what he feels like and disregards anything else.

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Cersei has stated strong unease, downright paranoia in fact, of Ned becoming Hand. This betrothal is part of the alliance that would bind House Stark to the Iron Throne, something she is desperate to prevent. Again, it's got nothing to do with Sansa herself; she is merely the piece in Cersei's Game of Thrones.

The alliance exists because Robert wants it to exist, and he will still want it after Cersei does this. This just puts her & Joffrey at odds with him.

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Of course the ride itself is not important. What's important is the fact that they went off alone together, and Sansa went willingly. If they had spent the afternoon in Joffrey's room at the inn drinking wine and making out, the affect would be the same: Sansa is the one shamed for allowing herself to get into a compromising position.

You cite someone referencing "the Trident" later on when comparing it to RLJ, but now you say the important thing is them going off alone together. Everyone is aware of the fact that it happened, but nobody cares about the bit you think is important.

[John Suburbs]

19 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

There's no reason to expect the maidenhead to be lost on a single ride. Margaery & her friends ride often, Sansa does not.

And how did you reach this conclusion? Sansa has practically no experience riding or doing any other strenuous activity, and suddenly she is out for hours galloping across open country. It would be remarkable if she was not broken after all that. 

19 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

Joffrey isn't charged with abusing the butcher's boy, as that wouldn't really be a crime for him. The only matter in front of Robert is Joffrey's injury and Arya's responsibility, with both being nobles. Yet you persist in bringing up the butcher's boy. Nobody cares about him. That's a minor matter that Robert handles as a parent. A major matter like Joffrey raping Sansa would require a judicial process acceptable to a great house like the Starks.

Wrong. Arya accuses both Joffrey and Sansa of lying, a charge that Robert knows is true. Yet he cannot even bring himself to rule against his son in this trivial matter. The judicial process would involve each side presenting their evidence to the judge and jury: King Robert. There is simply no way he would rule that Joffrey is a rapist because it would tear the realm apart -- especially since there is so much evidence against Sansa.

19 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

Raping Sansa doesn't take Ned off the board, it just makes him their dedicated enemy earlier, and would greatly piss off Robert.

Again, Sansa is not raped. Sansa seduced Joffrey; she is the one at fault here. Even if everybody in the world was convinced that Joffrey forced himself on her, Sansa would still be at fault because she willingly went off into the woods alone with him. Proper highborn ladies should aspire to be the maid, especially if they hope to be queen some day. Going off alone with your betrothed is an epic failure to live up to that ideal, easily enough cause for the court to conclude that she is not worthy to be queen.

So Ned is now a dedicated enemy to the crown and Robert is supremely pissed. How exactly is this a problem for Cersei?

19 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

It sounds like you completely failed to receive the message GRRM had about war. The lands are devastated by outlawry, whereas in King Robert's day "a maiden girl could walk the kingsroad in her nameday-gown and still go unmolested". We don't see outlawry in the Riverlands before the war breaks out.

Oh hogwash. Where is that quote from, the World Book? Someone recalling "the good old days" before the war?

If there are no outlaws anywhere in the realm, then why does every other highborn bring guards with them whenever they travel? Why do they have guards at all? Why not just let any random smallfolk walk into the lord's dining hall and have dinner?

You're talking like Sansa, all full of songs and stories about how wonderful everything is and how the good knight triumphs over evil. But as a wise man once said, "Life is not a song, sweetling."

19 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

But they didn't send him out without any guards, because Cersei never told Sandor it was fine to stay back, because your theory is wrong. If she really did conspire with Sandor, then under your theory she would be recklessly risking Joffrey's life. Instead Joffrey decided to do this on his own, because he's a spoiled prince who disregards the rules, and Cersei is too indulgent to tell servants to stop listening to Joffrey.

Please, use your imagination. Cersei has all kinds of resources at her disposal to make sure Joffrey is safe. Ever heard of outriders? These are men who specialize at watching from afar, staying out of sight and clearing areas of enemy spies and soldiers. They also tend to be very good with their bows and can eliminate enemies from a distance. Cersei also knows the exact route that Joffrey will take and can send an entire company of men to clear the area of any unscrupulous characters.

19 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

In front of everyone Renly mocks Joffrey for getting beat up by a little girl. That's what gets him sent out. Renly does not take any of that seriously, as he doesn't think it has any bearing on his scheme to replace Cersei. It's just kids stuff.

He hears Joffrey's story and makes fun of what he says, to Robert's great displeasure, indicating that even this little outburst has put him on thin ice with the king. What he doesn't do is call the queen a liar, which would not only draw the wrath of Cersei, but the Hound as well. Renly is no genius, but even he is smart enough to see the folly in that -- and that's if he even realizes how he was used to set up this whole mummer's farce to begin with.

19 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

Multiple inconsistent candidates for Jon's mother have been put forward. Ned himself declines to tell anyone any details about Jon's mother, until Robert insists, and Robert doesn't know anything about the woman to be suspicious (although he does consider that very unusual for Ned). The kids leaving the column is not a "mystery" that ANYONE in the story thinks needs an explanation. Arya herself was doing it without any hidden motives, and Bran also disobeys rules his parents make for his safety. You think the lack of punishment for the Hound indicates a mystery, but none of the characters do, and Robert (not part of the hypothetical conspiracy) could have punished him if he actually thought it was some egregious shirking of duty.

Again, you don't know what the characters think. Everyone but the Starks (and Robert) might realize that this is not right, but it's not their place to say so. The Starks remain oblivious, so the readers remain oblivious since it is through the Stark POVs that all of this unfolds.

Just because Martin has not presented you with the conclusion in the most obvious way imaginable does not mean it cannot be true. Before Dance came out, someone could have suggested that Aegon is still alive and Jon Con is plotting to restore him to the throne. By your logic here, you would conclude that simply because no one in the story even considers this possibility it cannot be true. But you would have been 180 degrees wrong.

19 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

You state that Joffrey would be lying in your hypothetical, but in this case he could be proved a liar by examining Sansa's maidenhead, as he has no guarantee a single day's ride would break it.

Let's compare the plot Varys attributes to her of getting Robert to participate in the melee so he could be killed. If Robert doesn't take her advice, then nothing happens, the status quo remains and she can plot to have him killed some other way. If Robert participates and isn't killed, similar story. If he participates and is killed, it will be chalked up to the risks of a melee, and since she argued against him participated, she hardly looks culpable. Having Joffrey falsely claim he took Sansa's maidenhead actually would have drastic consequences. It's insanely risky for her.

There are no guarantees about anything in life, but this is about as close as you can get. Cersei's plans are not always carefully crafted. She had no way of knowing that getting Robert drunk would actually get him killed, but that was the plan. If it didn't work, he would have returned to the city to hear Ned's charges and it would have been all over for her and her children.

19 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

I was looking over previous instances of heirs being disinherited.

We have no evidence that Aerion Brightflame's son Maegor was banished, or that Aerys intended to banish Rhaegar's son Aegon. Daemon might have wanted to fight for his inheritance because that's the kind of man he was, but instead the war was between Rhaenyra & Aegon II (because there were two conflicting precedents). Aemon was supposed to be removed from the succession by merely sending him to the citadel, though things got more complicated later (without a civil war). Inconvenient children have been sent to the faith before. Aerion Brightflame was sent to Essos (temporarily, as he merely made a false accusation against a hedge knight), and that is a possibility for Joffrey other than the wall.

Rhaenyra wasn't merely a twice-married woman, but a notorious adulteress whose eldest children were denounced as bastards by the Greens.

OK, but I still don't see what any of this has to do with our discussion. None of these men were accused of rape or other heinous crimes.

Meanwhile, Rhaenyra proves my point to the letter: a perceived adulteress whom people accused of siring multiple bastards and who plunged the realm into the worst civil war in its history. This is what happens when queens do not project an image of utmost propriety: their virtue is besmirched, the legitimacy of their children is questioned and rivals emerge to usurp the throne. The same thing is happening to Cersei right now, and the same thing would happen to Sansa for merely allowing herself to be put into a compromising position with the prince.

22 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

He won't be in a position to do so, as a great house like the Stark's are entitled to more than the king's say-so. There will be an actual trial, not just Robert acting as a one-man jury.

Absolutely not. Where are you getting this from? When the river lords appeal to Robert for justice at the outset of the 5K there is no trial for Gregor Clegane; no opportunity for him to defend himself. Ned determines there and then that he is guilty and immediately attaints him and strips him of all lands and titles. When Balon Greyjoy rebelled, they didn't have hearings and a panel of judges to determine his guilt or innocence. The only time they resort to this is in special circumstances, like when Tyrion is accused of Joffrey's death, the king is nine and doesn't understand what's going on and the Hand is the father of the accused and the grandfather of the victim. When Tyrion was charged in the Vale, Sweet Robin was the one who would pass sentence, and Tyrion gets around that by asking the court "Where is the king's justice?" In normal circumstances, the king rules with absolute authority and the Hand speaks with that authority when the king is absent. There certainly can be a trial, but the king is judge, jury, prosecutor. The king makes the laws, the king enforces the laws, the king interprets the laws. No house, no matter how big or how small, is "entitled" to anything. This is a medieval, feudal society. There is no parliament, no separation of powers, no Magna Carta, not even a Round Table. The king's word is absolute, and if you don't like it you can rebel and try to overthrow him. If successful, you get to be king and exert your absolute rule over the land. Ned says it best: "All justice flows from the king" and it is why whenever he passes sentence he says "In the name of Robert of the House Baratheon..."

23 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

Margaery was married to a false king rebelling against Joffrey, and there couldn't be any suspicion that the next child she bore belonged to Renly. Cersei had long been having an affair with her twin, but nobody checked her maidenhead.

Well then why make a big point about swearing before the entire court that she is still a maid? Nobody had accused Cersei of not being a maid. I'm sorry, but like your last comment about Robert not being a one-man jury, your opinions are not even close to the facts on the page.

23 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

Nobody mentions Lyanna as a possible mother for Jon, so it's less that they are explicitly arguing against it than giving other mutually incompatible options. The mutual incompatibility makes it a mystery. The characters in the story don't have Watsonian reasons to disbelieve Ned, as it is common for noblemen to father bastards, particularly in war. As Harwin noted, it was Brandon rather than Ned who was betrothed to Catelyn, and they only spent one night together before Ned left. Your argument is that Cersei's behavior is so inexplicable that there must be a hidden motive behind it, but the other characters are aware of her reaction to the ride without finding it a mystery (unlike Jon's parentage).

In the first place, Ned and Cat did not spend only one night as husband and wife. More like two weeks, aka a fortnight. Second of all, there are plenty of reasons why smart people like Varys and Tywin should suspect that Ned is lying. The entire time that Lyanna and Rhaegar were supposedly together, the entire realm should have been dreading the prospect of yet another Targaryen bastard to deal with. They only just got rid of the last of the Blackfyre pretender some 20 years before, after nearly 100 years of bloodshed. So when Ned comes back to court and reports that Lyanna is dead and there is no royal bastard it must have come as a huge relief. Then a few weeks later, Ned shows up at Winterfell with a mysterious bastard of his own. Readers were quick to pick up on this even though none of the characters do. The only difference between that situation and this is that Martin has chosen to hide the clues to the reader a little more deeply.

Again, I ask you, where are these hard and fast rules that bind Martin into layering his mysteries in one way and one way only?

On ‎6‎/‎29‎/‎2018 at 10:42 PM, FictionIsntReal said:

You think Tywin would see through the subterfuge, but no character in the books thinks anything of it.

Once again, you don't know that. All you know is that nobody voiced their suspicions within earshot of a POV.

On ‎6‎/‎29‎/‎2018 at 10:42 PM, FictionIsntReal said:

STOP TALKING ABOUT THE BUTCHER'S BOY. Robert, Cersei & Ned aren't talking about him because he's nothing to them. It's about Joffrey vs Arya, and Robert's decision is that the parent of each should discipline their own child. As Robert thinks Joffrey is bad, he can be smacked behind closed doors, whereas Ned can do nothing with Arya (even for the supposedly big deal of leaving the column).

There is no need to shout. As I've said, my point is that Robert cannot even bring himself to pass judgement against Joffrey regarding this minor matter, even though he knows Joffrey is 100 percent guilty. So if he is not going to rule against him here, when there would be absolutely no consequences to Joffrey or anyone else, then there is no way he is going to rule against him when the consequences will be stripping him of his inheritance and risk plunging the realm into civil war. And this is especially true given that the undisputed facts of this case -- that Sansa willingly went off alone with Joffrey -- would lay the blame for anything that happened out there squarely on her shoulders. Even Ned would agree with that.

On ‎6‎/‎29‎/‎2018 at 10:42 PM, FictionIsntReal said:

Robert doesn't simply accept huge losses like that. Cersei wouldn't get away with it. Disinheriting Joffrey is something Robert would like to do, giving him a public reason for doing so is too dumb even for Cersei.

Of course he does. He risked losing Dorne by not holding Tywin accountable for the deaths of Elia and her children. It was only through the incredible negotiating skills of Jon Arryn that it did not happen. Robert is not going to throw Joffrey under the bus because it would lead to a succession crisis that would eventually pit one of his sons against the other. Not to mention that it would be a huge stain on his own honor for having bred such a vile rapist for a son. And again, the facts of the case place the blame on Sansa.

On ‎6‎/‎29‎/‎2018 at 10:42 PM, FictionIsntReal said:

JOFFREY ISN'T BEING ACCUSED OF THE NON-CRIME OF ATTACKING THE BUTCHER'S BOY. Arya is being accused of attacking Joffrey.

Again, there is no need to shout. Joffrey claims he and Sansa were just minding their own business when Arya and Micah attacked them with clubs. Arya calls him a liar and, yes, accuses him of hurting Mycah. Literally, her words are "he was hurting Mycah." Sansa punts and says she doesn't remember anything. Robert, who knows exactly what the truth is here, does what he always does and tries to brush the whole thing off, but Cersei won't let him. She wants accountability for what happened to her poor Joffrey, and she uses Lady as a proxy for Nymeria. So the two things that should jump out at you here is that if Robert will not lay blame on Joffrey for this little scrap, then he certainly is not going to ruin his own good name, usher in a succession crisis and possibly throw the realm into civil war by accusing him of a major crime, and secondly, if Cersei wants blood from the wolf that wasn't even responsible, then it is beyond incredulous that she places no blame at all on the man she herself brought in to make sure this exact kind of thing does not happen to Joffrey, ever.

On ‎6‎/‎29‎/‎2018 at 10:42 PM, FictionIsntReal said:

Robert won't have the option of exonerating him, and queens have appeared in court under worse clouds than that.

Robert would have every reason to exonerate him and absolutely no reason to convict him. It was Sansa who willingly jeopardized her honor by going off alone with Joffrey. That alone is enough to rule that she is the one responsible for what happened because, again, men are saintly but weak and women are vile temptresses. It's the same BS attitude that has most people today thinking that a woman is at fault for her rape because she willingly went up to a man's hotel room alone. Only in the past year or two has our culture started to reconsider that load of crap.

Yes, queens have endured under worse clouds, and in every case the realm is destabilized because grasping opportunists use it as leverage to question the new king's legitimacy -- just like it's happening now to Cersei.

On ‎6‎/‎29‎/‎2018 at 10:42 PM, FictionIsntReal said:

Robert doesn't want to fight Ned, so he won't. Robert will be fine with whatever justice the Starks can get of Joffrey.

He doesn't want to, but he will if Ned chooses to rebel. It's either that or simply let the north form it's own kingdom again, and good luck holding onto the other realms if that happens.

But Ned is not going to do any of this because, once again, under the attitudes of this day and age Sansa is the one clearly at fault and Ned has no moral or ethical grounds to defend her.

On ‎6‎/‎29‎/‎2018 at 10:42 PM, FictionIsntReal said:

Why would half the realm rise to ensure that Joffrey rather than Tommen is heir? Joffrey hasn't built up any personal political connections.

Joffrey is the rightful heir and virtually everyone, even the womenfolk, would lay the blame on Sansa for what happened.

[John Suburbs]

17 hours ago, Nevets said:

Wow.  This reminds me of the line from The Last Jedi, when Luke Skywalker tells a couple of people at different times, "Every statement you have just made is wrong."  Or at least highly questionable.

Sansa says she doesn't like horses.  But she also is able to keep up with Joffrey through woods and other rough terrain, suggesting a decent amount of experience.  In any event, it is extensive vigorous activity that tends to break it, so her not being active would make it less likely that it would be in a position to break.  The likelihood of any single activity, short of intercourse, breaking it is extremely small, especially in a pre-pubescent girl (such as Sansa)

If he forces himself on her, and there are signs of a struggle, he is toast.  In any other case, we don't know how it will be received by Robert or those around him,, who would be the main ones doing the judging,, but to say that sansa would definitely get shamed I think is highly inaccurate.

If he doesn't have sex, but says he did (why?) and an exam shows her to be intact, then he is going to have a lot of explaining to do.  Throwing Cersei under the bus then becomes a possibility.  Also if his rape trial goes badly, he might try to take her down with himself.

Sorry, but this portion of the post is completely ridiculous, as is your theory.

Sure, she can ride, but it is a struggle for her. Text again:

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"Prince Joffrey's mount was a blood bay courser, swift as the wind, and he rode it with reckless abandon, so fast that Sansa was hard-pressed to keep up on her mare."

So Joffrey is on a horse that is bred and trained for speed, while Sansa's is a common mare, and he is pushing his mount as hard as he can. So knowing Joffrey as we do, how you can say that this is nothing but two innocent kids having a good time is beyond me. If he's not trying to damage her hymen, then it looks to me like he's trying to get her thrown.

In what way is riding hard for hours over open country not "extensive vigorous activity." Have you ever ridden. It's not like you can just loll back on the horse and take a nap. Whatever riding Sansa has done, I can assure you it has never been this aggressive, so this is all the more reason that her hymen, which has never been exposed to this much stress, would break.

No, he is not toast. Even if he forces himself on her, Sansa would still be seen as at fault because she willingly rode off alone with Joffrey. We have the same problem in our society still, when the woman is at fault for her own rape because she willingly went up to a man's hotel room and "what did she think was going to happen?"

Let's play out the whole sequence of events: They both arrive back at the column where Cersei is waiting, with a large crowd of people who are aware by now that the prince and Lady Sansa have been missing all day. When it is revealed that they were alone together and Sansa did this of her own volition, Cersei has all she needs to make a stink. At this point, Joffrey claims she tried to seduce him but he resisted, being the noble, pious young man that he is. Cersei is supposedly is not convinced and calls for Sansa's examination. If she is broken, they confront both of them and it is only then that Joffrey needs to admit that, yes, he did succumb to Sansa's advances. If she is not broken, it's not as good as a result for Cersei, but she still has plenty of cause to demand that the betrothal be called off. If she is rebuffed, then at least she has laid the groundwork for future assaults on Sansa's character.

Is this a foolproof plan? Of course not. But it is in perfect keeping with Cersei's characterization. She think's she's being supremely clever and has all of the possible outcomes covered. But she doesn't.

 

[John Suburbs]

16 hours ago, Nevets said:

This is about the biggest piece of BS I've seen yet.  Hymens don't break that easily.  By the way Elinor and Megga are roughly Margaery's age, not "recently flowered", and have been riding horses for years.  Give it up.  The hole you're digging is getting deeper.

Would you care to reveal your medical credentials that make you such an expert? Do you have a lot of experience with hymens? The simple fact is, as the text clearly shows, that Cersei believes this. So whether it is true or not is completely irrelevant.

16 hours ago, Nevets said:

Of course not.  Which is why Joffrey is going to get a good share of whatever blame there is.

No he will not because it was Sansa who willingly went off with him. She is at fault.

17 hours ago, Nevets said:

I didn't.  I said she couldn't arrange such, and that therefore any blame would fall on Joffrey.

No it would not. Joffrey does not have the authority to simply dismiss his sworn shield. Sandor's orders come from the king and the queen.

17 hours ago, Nevets said:

No.  But I see no reason to expect robbers around every corner, either.  And the Riverlands has too many possible informants (aka  local peasantry) and too few good hiding places to be good outlaw country.

Not around every corner, but the threat is always present. This is the kings road that is teeming with merchants heavy with coin and valuable goods, which is why even armed and armored kings and high lords travel with guards.

What riverlands are you talking about? I'm talking about the one where the BwB hid from the law using numerous hidey places, where Rorge's gang hid from the law even after the brutality at Saltpans, Lady Stoneheart's gang hides from the law even as they are executing Freys left and right, where Nymeria and her massive band of wolves have been hiding for several years now. The one where there are hills and forests and caves and all sorts of places for outlaws to lay low.

And you're whole argument here is ridiculous. You have the queen thinking that it's not worth the bother to send even one guard to protect her beloved prince because if he is killed they can always capture and execute the killers later and they have a spare prince ready to take over anyway. If she thought like that, then she wouldn't bother herself with hunting down Sansa or Tyrion, let alone accuse Tyrion of regicide. She would just rap him on the head and say, "silly little man, don't you realize we have an even better prince all lined up?"

17 hours ago, Nevets said:

Do we have any specific text as to who Sandor actually takes orders from?  I am curious about that.  I don't think sandor took the "rest of the day off."  I think he simply lost track of them.  The fact is, if Joffrey want to ditch him, he will probably find a way to do so.

Regardless of whether it was intentional or accidental, he is still at fault. If he just lost track of them he should have immediately alerted the queen to that fact. That's his responsibility as sworn shield.

Yes, he answers to Cersei. He is a Lannister bannerman. She is the one who brought him in to protect the prince.

17 hours ago, Nevets said:

A military camp is going to have barriers to keep people from wandering in and funnel them to guarded entrances.  Joffrey should be safe.  By the way, there is no inn.  That is the show.

This is not a military camp. This is a royal progress. They are not here for long -- a few days at best. There is no way they can seal off the entire area. Anyone can walk in.

There is an inn.

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Lady followed at her heels as she ran from the inn's common room.

Alone and humiliated, Sansa took the long way back to the inn, where she knew Septa Mordane would be waiting.

The meeting later takes place at Castle Derry.

17 hours ago, Nevets said:

They were alone together at the instigation and initiative of Cersei and Joffrey.  I am quite skeptical that Ssansa would get all, or even most , of the blame if anything untoward did happen, which it did not.  By the way, Joffrey is waiting an awful long time to actually do anything. Unless Arya and Mycah traveled a lot farther on foot to play swords than I think they did, they are almost back to camp by the end of the chapter.  A location where doing anything would risk witnesses.

Sorry, friend, but no. In this patriarchal society, the woman who voluntarily places herself in the sole company of a man who is not her husband bears responsibility for what happens. That's the way it was, and still is in many parts of the world.

Arya and Mycah have horses too. We have no idea where they are in relation to the camp at this point, other than that it is within half-a-day's horse ride.

Yes, he's waiting a long time. He wants a full day of hard riding to make sure Sansa is good and broken by the time they return. At the same time, he is looking for ways to kill her.

 

[John Suburbs]

17 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

Catelyn asks Ned about Ashara, Robert asks Ned about who Jon's mother is. It's a mystery to both characters (as well as to Jon himself). Sansa & Joffrey going off along is not considered to be a mystery needing an explanation by anyone. The characters in the story do not have any Watsonian reason to suspect that Ned Stark is lying about Jon being his bastard, readers think otherwise because they have information those characters lack. Your arguments have been based on facts which would be public knowledge to characters who don't see them as requiring any explanation.

Plenty of reasons why smart players should suspect Ned. The realm just rid itself of the last Targ bastards that brought 100 years of bloodshed to the realm. The fact that Rhaegar did not produce yet another Targ bastard to plague the realm all over again must have come as a huge relief to all. The only person who can verify this claim, however, is Ned, and a few weeks later he shows up at Winterfell with a mysterious bastard of his own. Readers puzzled it out easily enough, but characters do not, so it is not unreasonable to think that no one suspects the Trident wasn't any more than a simple cock up. But readers who have critical thinking abilities can puzzle out the truth.

17 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

Again, one is considered a mystery and one is not. A character may bring up "the Trident", but not Sandor's absence.

Correction: one is considered a mystery by you and one is not. Characters bring up the Tower of Joy frequently, but not Ned's story. Not once, ever.

17 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

Aegon/Young Griff really was out of left field. There doesn't seem to be any indication in the prior books. Different here, where you think the first book planted a mystery, but nobody else sees anything there. If someone reading the first book claimed that Aegon was actually alive but replaced by another baby, I would need look at them skeptically. And my impression is that most folks here call him "fAegon" and disbelieve the story of his rescue.

OK, so it was out of left field. Your whole argument against this idea is that Martin does not reveal secrets out of left field like this. But here is clear and incontrovertible proof that you are wrong. Nobody saw anything odd about the story of Aegon's death, but in reality it left the door wide open for either a fake Aegon or the real Aegon to reemerge, an idea you would have rejected outright because "the characters in the story do not have any Watsonian reason to suspect" that his death was faked. 

17 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

Replace "not enough evidence" with "essentially no evidence". And absence of evidence is a sort of evidence of absence, if not completely definitive.

Plenty of evidence, as I've posted. Comments from multiple characters that the kings road is dangerous and they're not supposed to leave the column. What has absolutely zero evidence is your contention that all of this applies to everyone else in the world, including armored warrior kings, but not an utterly defenseless prince and his lady.

17 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

The conspiracy keeps getting more elaborate. She also needs these hypothetical outriders who are told to stay out of sight to maintain the illusion that Joffrey wouldn't ask Sandor to stay away (an order she had secretly told Sandor to expect & obey), and these outriders don't intervene when Joffrey gets attacked by a direwolf.

It wouldn't take much to stay out of sight from Sansa. She's not terribly observant.

And no, no outrider, no matter how good a shot they think they are, is going to launch an arrow at a wolf who is down on the ground wrestling with the prince. Imagine the consequences if they killed Joffrey.

17 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

I don't think you have a clue about how likely it is that Sansa would break her maidenhead in a single day's riding.

If you would be so kind, please post your medical credentials that qualify you as an expert in maidenheads. Whether or not it is likely is irrelevant. The text clearly shows that Cersei believes this, and it is her plan.

17 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

You keep quoting the phrase "wild abandon", but A Search of Ice and Fire doesn't have it turning up anywhere. And again, this is not a safe bet at all.

Sorry, "reckless abandon":

Quote

Prince Joffrey's mount was a blood bay courser, swift as the wind, and he rode it with reckless abandon, so fast that Sansa was hard-pressed to keep up on her mare.

So not only has Joffrey chosen a horse for himself that is born and bred for speed while giving Sansa a common mare, he then intentionally pushes his steed to its limits. Knowing what we know about Joffrey, I find it incredulous that anybody could conclude that the only explanation here is that he was just out having fun. If he is not trying to ensure that she is broken by the end of the day, it looks an awful lot like he is trying to get her thrown.

17 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

Cersei couldn't be sure that Robert would be killed by a boar, but it cost her nothing to have Lancel give him strongwine.

It would have cost her everything if Robert had not died on this trip. Otherwise, he would have come back to the capital healthy as a, well, boar where Ned would not only have the book to accuse Cersei of her crimes but his own sworn testimony that he heard her confess it from her own lips.

17 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

ARYA IS THE ONE BEING ACCUSED BY CERSEI & JOFFREY. Joffrey is the one who was injured. Robert is punting rather than taking Cersei's claim seriously. Robert doesn't outright call Joffrey a liar because his basis for that is just his pre-existing dislike of Joffrey. In this case, the only cost of Joffrey's lie is a direwolf that Robert doesn't think should be in King's Landing anyway.

The more you shout, the more you reveal that you do not believe your own statements. Arya accuses Joffrey, publicly and in no uncertain terms, of assault and lying. Back to the text:

Quote

 

The queen stepped forward. "You know full well, Stark. This girl of yours attacked my son. Her and her butcher's boy. That animal of hers tried to tear his arm off."

"That's not true," Arya said loudly. She just bit him a little. He was hurting Mycah."

"Joff told us what happened," the queen said. "You and the butcher's boy beat him with clubs while you set your wolf on him."

"That's not how it was," Arya said, close to tears again. Ned put a hand on her shoulder.

"Yes it is," Prince Joffrey insisted. "They all attacked me, and she threw Lion's Tooth in the river." Ned noticed that he did so much as glance at Arya as he spoke

"Liar!" Arya yelled.

 

Robert can tell Joffrey is lying just as easily as Ned can. And the whole idea that Arya would just decide on a whim to attack the crown prince, a capital crime, for absolutely no reason is ludicrous. His job as king is to hear testimony and then make a ruling. He has determined the truth in his mind, as he later admits, but he cannot come down against the prince, even when the consequences to him for this minor scuffle are minimal.

17 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

Nowhere do we get Ned thinking that Sansa ought to be ashamed of going riding alone with Joffrey and drinking wine. You keep accusing everyone else of failing to grasp the mindset of these characters, but none of us have any confidence in your ability to do so.

Nowhere do we get Ned thinking that Lyanna is Jon's mother, even though he thinks about her death on the bed of blood frequently. Sorry, but absence of evidence is not evidence of absence, even when it is the POV's own thoughts. He may have thought about this quite a lot, but not during any of his POVs, particularly once the whole thing is over and done with and he has more urgent matters to deal with.

17 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

Why would half the realm support Joffrey vs Tommen? Both are too young to have political allies. That youth is what helped make Maegor & Aegon easy to disinherit.

Most people will conclude that Joffrey got railroaded. Sansa put herself into that situation so she bears the consequences for what happened.

Um, people don't stay children forever. Someday, Tommen will ascend the throne, and if Joffrey is still alive, even if he has spent years at the Wall, there will be people who will want to make him king -- particularly if the realm is hit by drought or pestilence or anything else that leads to widespread dissension. They'll already have enough trouble with forces trying to restore the Targaryens, they certainly don't need a war between Baratheon brothers.

17 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

We don't hear of any brigands & bandits in the riverlands until war breaks out (then we hear a lot about them). I even quoted a character (who was probably being hyperbolic) on how safe the kingsroad used to be. And if it was really that obviously dangerous (in their actual experience, it was not), then Cersei wouldn't have asked Joffrey to put himself in danger that way.

Again, this Disneyesque impression of life in the middle ages is as silly as Sansa and her songs. The king's road is teeming with merchants and traders heavy with gold, furs, spices and other valuables. Of course there are brigands and bandits about, hence Ser Rodrick's warning that "the kings road can be perilous for a woman alone." If it is all so safe and casual, then why do Robert and Ned need a tail of guards when they leave the column? They are far more capable of defending themselves than Joffrey and Sansa.

As I said, Cersei has all sorts of ways to ensure Joffrey's safety, none of which would be apparent to Sansa the Clueless.

17 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

Joffrey is highly unreliable. Nobody entrusts him with anything. Cersei later finds herself completely unable to control Joffrey. The consistent pattern is that he does what he feels like and disregards anything else.

Exactly, thus my contention that he was out to kill Sansa, not just shame her.

Cersei does involve Joffrey with her schemes. Do you think it was just coincidence that he played nice for her at the riverside dinner, and then as soon as Cersei stalked off he dropped her like a hot potato?

17 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

The alliance exists because Robert wants it to exist, and he will still want it after Cersei does this. This just puts her & Joffrey at odds with him.

It may still exist after this, but there is now a huge divide between Robert and his most loyal friend and Hand. And there is no chance of this alliance being sealed by a marriage, so it wouldn't take much to create a formal break between Ned and Robert. Indeed, that happened even without her interference.

At the same time, Ned is going to have an awfully difficult time laying a morals charge on Cersei when his own daughter has been sent back to Winterfell in shame.

Cersei is already at odds with Robert; has been for years.

17 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

You cite someone referencing "the Trident" later on when comparing it to RLJ, but now you say the important thing is them going off alone together. Everyone is aware of the fact that it happened, but nobody cares about the bit you think is important.

The whole incident occurred on the Trident. What term would you prefer?

Many people would see the breakdown on Joffrey's security, but that is not the important matter to them. Far more troubling is the fact that their potential future queen is such a loose young woman that she would gladly ride off into the country alone with a boy. Disgraceful thing for her to do, and she gets what she deserves for being so careless with her morals.

[Nevets]

2 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

If you would be so kind, please post your medical credentials that qualify you as an expert in maidenheads. Whether or not it is likely is irrelevant. The text clearly shows that Cersei believes this, and it is her plan.

Quote

A lord's daughter was more like to give her maidenhead to a horse than to a husband, it was said, and Margaery had been riding since she was old enough to walk.

AFFC, Cersei VI

Sounds to me like she thinks many, but not necessarily all, noble girls lose their hymen riding, and that it is the fact that they do lots of riding that does it.  Given Sansa's lack of experience on horses, that would make it less likely, not more, that it would be broken.

Besides, if hymens were as easily broken as you seem to think, there would be no point in examining them in the first place.

You have no reason to be certain who will get blamed for their countryside ride.  Given that Joffrey is the one who would have to arrange Sandor's absence (unless it was Cersei, and that might look even worse) and the horses, he could get some of the blame.  And if sex is alleged, I can think of other responses.

For example, Robert might say "It looks like they got an early start.  Guess we'll have to hold the marriage a few years early, then."  If Ned goes along, Cersei can't do shit.  Sansa might object, but given her worshipful attitude toward Joffrey, she might go along.  Joffrey might be forced to recant just to keep the marriage from happening.

Or Joffrey might have second thoughts after he is told how likely it is she still has a hymen, and retract his story, and maybe blame his mother for putting him up to it.

2 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

So not only has Joffrey chosen a horse for himself that is born and bred for speed while giving Sansa a common mare, he then intentionally pushes his steed to its limits. Knowing what we know about Joffrey, I find it incredulous that anybody could conclude that the only explanation here is that he was just out having fun. If he is not trying to ensure that she is broken by the end of the day, it looks an awful lot like he is trying to get her thrown.

His horse is probably his personal mount, and the mare was probably what was considered suitable for a young girl like Sansa. Joffrey is just the kind of narcissistic asshole who would think it is fun to ride fast without noticing or caring about his companion's difficulties in keeping up, More likely than any attempt to harm.

2 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

As I said, Cersei has all sorts of ways to ensure Joffrey's safety, none of which would be apparent to Sansa the Clueless.

Llke the outriders you mentioned above, which I can't find.  Possible witnesses.  I like it.  Stories that can be cross-checked, too.  And if they are so loyal to Cersei that she knows they will cover up anything, then why doesn't she use them for anything else?  By the way, I am not so sure that Sansa is as unobservant as you think she is.  

And what makes you so sure that Sansa will receive any blame for what happens.  While that is certainly a possibility, I think it is far from a certainty.  By the way, Sansa is not a woman.  She is a pre-pubescent girl.  In pre-industial societies like this one, the distinction matters.

[John Suburbs]

23 hours ago, Nevets said:

AFFC, Cersei VI

Sounds to me like she thinks many, but not necessarily all, noble girls lose their hymen riding, and that it is the fact that they do lots of riding that does it.  Given Sansa's lack of experience on horses, that would make it less likely, not more, that it would be broken.

Besides, if hymens were as easily broken as you seem to think, there would be no point in examining them in the first place.

It means Margaery has a lot of experience with horses and has probably done a lot of hard riding, so there is no reason for Cersei to worry about whether she appears to be broken or not -- she likely already is. Sansa is the exact opposite case: very little experience on horseback, and certainly none at hard riding. Ergo, she has to make sure she gets good and jostled on her ride with Joffrey because her hymen is likely to be still intact and fragile. By your logic, Cersei should not have tried to frame Margaery or her girls either because she had know way of knowing the condition of their hymens, but this is exactly what she did.

They're not examining her to see if it was broken on horseback or not. They are examining her to see if she can still claim to be a maiden.

23 hours ago, Nevets said:

You have no reason to be certain who will get blamed for their countryside ride.  Given that Joffrey is the one who would have to arrange Sandor's absence (unless it was Cersei, and that might look even worse) and the horses, he could get some of the blame.  And if sex is alleged, I can think of other responses.

For example, Robert might say "It looks like they got an early start.  Guess we'll have to hold the marriage a few years early, then."  If Ned goes along, Cersei can't do shit.  Sansa might object, but given her worshipful attitude toward Joffrey, she might go along.  Joffrey might be forced to recant just to keep the marriage from happening.

Or Joffrey might have second thoughts after he is told how likely it is she still has a hymen, and retract his story, and maybe blame his mother for putting him up to it.

There is absolutely no question that Sansa went off alone with Joffrey willingly. That fact alone is enough to question her moral purity.

No, Robert is not going to say that, and if he did it would be the scandal of the ages. This is a feudal society. If the queen-to-be loses her virginity to anyone, even the prince, before marriage she is deemed unworthy to hold such a high honor. If would be this way even if Sansa was beaten unconscious, dragged into the bushes and ravaged, let alone casually riding off with her prince.

As I pointed out above, Joffrey does not have to admit to actual sex until after they have examined Sansa.

23 hours ago, Nevets said:

His horse is probably his personal mount, and the mare was probably what was considered suitable for a young girl like Sansa. Joffrey is just the kind of narcissistic asshole who would think it is fun to ride fast without noticing or caring about his companion's difficulties in keeping up, More likely than any attempt to harm.

Regardless, he has the fast courser and she has a common mare. It would be very tough going for Sansa all day long. Joffrey is also the wicked yet inept plotter who sent the catspaw to kill Bran, so this would be in perfect keeping with that aspect of his characterization.

23 hours ago, Nevets said:

Llke the outriders you mentioned above, which I can't find.  Possible witnesses.  I like it.  Stories that can be cross-checked, too.  And if they are so loyal to Cersei that she knows they will cover up anything, then why doesn't she use them for anything else?  By the way, I am not so sure that Sansa is as unobservant as you think she is.  

And what makes you so sure that Sansa will receive any blame for what happens.  While that is certainly a possibility, I think it is far from a certainty.  By the way, Sansa is not a woman.  She is a pre-pubescent girl.  In pre-industial societies like this one, the distinction matters.

Of course you don't see them because Sansa doesn't see them. This is the girl who is clueless to the fact that she insults herself in front of crowds of people. The outriders would not just be royal soldiers, they would be Lannister men -- purposely sent to King's Landing to obey the queen. How do you know she doesn't use them for anything else? I'll have to check, but I can't say she would have any need for them beyond this little plot. Again, this idea that if something is not described outright in the text then it cannot be true is ludicrous. All kinds of things happen out of sight to the reader in aSoIaF.

She will get blamed, without a doubt. She willingly went off alone with Joffrey. Even if it comes out that he forced himself on her, she would still get blamed for that reason alone. Pre- or post-industrial, women got blamed for putting themselves in situations like this. It is literally only in the last 30 years or so that this has started to change, and even today many people give the benefit of the doubt to the rapist because "she should have known what would happen if she went to his hotel room alone."