Will Tyrion'sAdvice work for FAegon?

[John Suburbs]

1 hour ago, Megorova said:

They have 10000 warriors, so split in half that will be 5K and 5K. JonCon's 5K managed to seize Griffin's Roost, Storm's End, and other castles of Stormlands. Basically those 5K took 1 of 7Ks under their control. So it's possible, that the other 5K will also manage to take over one of other 7Ks. The thing is, after Renly's death, the War of Five Kings, and Stannis taking remainders of his forces to The North, there was nearly no one left to guard Stormlands. So what other Kingdom out of 7K is also in similar situation? -> Westerlands.

Majority of their forces participated in Wof5K, now their remnants are devided between Jaime at Riverrun and Kevan (RIP) at King's Landing. So it would be quite easy for 5K of Golden Company to seize Casterly Rock, Lannisport, and Westerlands, long before scattered Lannister troops will realise, that their lands were ambushed. Their attention was divided between what was happening at Stormlands, that were attacked by unknown invader; at Riverrun between Freys, Blackfish and Lannisters; at The North between Starks and Boltons; and in The Reach between Highgardens and Euron. No one was watching Westerlands. So it would have been easy to seize them.

Furthermore it's a good strategic move to seize Westerlands, that way they will easily establish their control over bottom half of Westeros - Westerlands, The Reach, Dorne, Stormlands. They can seize Stormlands and Westerlands, and then thru negotiations and arranged marriages to get The Reach and Dorne into their flock. It seems to me, that they are planning to marry Arianne Martell to Jon Connington, and fAegon to Margaery Tyrell. I think, that it was always in Varys' plans to save Margaery and The Reach for fAegon. First she got married with gay guy, then her second husband was killed on her wedding day, then she got married to a boy, that is too young yet, to consummate their marriage, so she still can get married with someone else. Though Littlefinger added his own elements into Varys' original plan. Elements like Sparrows, Margaery's imprisonment, taking Sansa away from King's Landing, etc.

(Probably LF is aiming to marry fAegon to Sansa, and become fAegon's Hand instead of Varys. He will give to Golden Company the key to three Kingdoms - The North, Riverlands and The Vale - Sansa, and will aid them on battlefield with his Knights of The Vale. So he can offer to fAegon upper half of Westeros, and support of the Warden of the East, while Varys will offer to fAegon the lower half of Westeros, and support of the Warden of the West (because now Varys has Tyrion on his side. And Tyrion is Tywin's heir. Jaime is in Kingsguards, so he can't inherite, and Tyrion as a man, has a higher claim than Cersei's. So now he is the Warden of the West). It's obvious which offer will be more appealing to fAegon. Sansa is still a virgin, and LF knows about it, that's why, when she was in his castle, he ordered one of Kettleblacks to protect her, not to spoil the goods. And Margaery is not a virgin, or at least her reputation was severally soiled by the Sparrows. Virginal Sansa, with three Kingdoms as her dowry VS whore Margaery, that has already married three times, and can offer only The Reach as her dowry. It's Sansa's win.)

If fAegon will marry with Margaery, then Golden Company will have support of The Reach. And thru marriage with Arianne they will get Dorne. There's no way to get in the similar manner to Westerlands, so the only option is to seize them, the same way they did with Stormlands. So I think, that the other 5K were doing just that - battling in the west, while fAegon is taking over southern east of Westeros. This option seems more likely, that them just getting lost or wrecked.

Sounds sketchy. They can in no way count on a Margaery fAegon match, and Arianne is slated to be Princess of Dorne, too high for JonCon. So even the full 10k vs Mace Tyrell's 30k seems dicey, although fAegon does have elephants, and if some of the reach lords cross over...

As for the Westerlands, it would be quite a feat if, after alerting the realm to their presence in the Stormlands, that they were able to sail around Dorne, through the Redwyne Straits, past all the ironmen in the area and attack the westerlands. Now that Riverrun is settled, we can expect part of the Lannister host to return to the west with Forley Prester, and there are still the remnants of Daven's host at Oxcross. Plus, even with elephants, good luck taking the Rock. If there is one castle in all of Westeros that is impregnable, that's it.

Like all well-laid plans, this one can be foiled by any number of things, starting with the lack of cooperation from the main houses they are counting on for support.

[chrisdaw]

He'll betroth Arianne and have Dorne. The GC will crush everything on the way to KL that doesn't turn coat. The Faith and Tyrells will be fighting in the street and Aegon will arrive to save the Faith and end the violence and be hailed a hero. Aegon will be crowned king by the HS. They'll wheel and deal and come to the aid of the reach against the Ironborn and so have the Reach too.

KL and the IT is Aegon's by mid book, the current players put down or on ice, it is then about Dany vs Aegon.

[Megorova]

1 hour ago, John Suburbs said:

Sounds sketchy. They can in no way count on a Margaery fAegon match, and Arianne is slated to be Princess of Dorne, too high for JonCon. So even the full 10k vs Mace Tyrell's 30k seems dicey, although fAegon does have elephants, and if some of the reach lords cross over...

One of previous rulling Princesses of Dorne, Aliandra Martell, did married with a man, that wasn't a prince or anything close to it - Drazenko Rogare, uncle of Larra Rogare (mother of Aegon IV). Arianne's mother is Lady Mellario, a noblewoman from Norvos. She's not a Princess, but Doran still married with her. Also if JonCon will become Lord of Stormlands, then his position will be even higher than Arianna's. She's just a heiress, and he will be already a reigning ruler.

And it wouldn't be GC's 10K vs Tyrell's 30K, more like 10+30 vs Lannisters.

1 hour ago, John Suburbs said:

As for the Westerlands, it would be quite a feat if, after alerting the realm to their presence in the Stormlands, that they were able to sail around Dorne, through the Redwyne Straits, past all the ironmen in the area and attack the westerlands.

Redwynes, most likely, are working for Varys and Illyrio. Olenna Tyrell was born Redwyne, so she and her son Mace, and her grandchildren will support whoever Olenna will tell them to. And she will tell them to support fAegon. It seems, that Tyrells were in cohorts with Varys as far as Robert's Rebellion, and that's why even though officially Tyrells were supporters of Targaryens, nearly all Rebellion they have spent doing absolutely nothing, while they could have marched to King's Landing and saved Aerys, though they didn't. Why? -> Because they are actually supporters of Blackfyres. They had a grudge against Targaryens since failed conquest of Dorne, after which Lord Tyrell was killed by hundreds scorpions. Next Targaryen King has forgiven Dornishmen for their betrayal, and didn't punished them for Tyrell's death. Two generations later, King Daeron II Targaryen has married with Mariah Martell. And one of his grandchildren, Maekar, also married with a Dornishwoman, Dyanna Dayne. And they even have build Summerhall in Dornish Marches. So it's likely, that Tyrells weren't very happy with Targaryens and their decisions. Thus it's possible, that Tyrells were secret supporters of Blackfyres, were and still are.

If GC had support of Redwynes and Tyrells, then they could have easily went unnoticed thru those waters, safely avoided Ironborn, and got to Casterly Rock, where they have used some sort of trick to seize the castle. There are caves under the castle. Maybe some of those caves are connected to the outside, and Varys knows about it. Maybe it was Tyrion, who told about it, in his drunken stupor, while he was traveling to Essos. And that boy, that took care of Tyrion during his sea-travel, was one of Varys' Little birds. So Varys' people can get inside of CR, and Lannister soldiers wouldn't even notice, that the castle was invaded.

[The Sleeper]

14 hours ago, Starkz said:

7K isn’t exactly united right now and with smart/good commanders they can get pretty far.

He wants to be king. There is no far enough; there is only all the way. And the disunity that will allow him to make him some headway works against him down the road. The realm wouldn't fall piecemeal to any claimant, more extended conquest will be required. 

He has no incomes, no established holdings and no allies. Due to his dubious descent he won't even be able to fully cash in on the Targaryen name. He will have enough success to be a credible foil to Dany and probably get whatever support she was likely to get herself.

[Shouldve Taken The Black]

10 hours ago, Megorova said:

One of previous rulling Princesses of Dorne, Aliandra Martell, did married with a man, that wasn't a prince or anything close to it - Drazenko Rogare, uncle of Larra Rogare (mother of Aegon IV). Arianne's mother is Lady Mellario, a noblewoman from Norvos. She's not a Princess, but Doran still married with her. Also if JonCon will become Lord of Stormlands, then his position will be even higher than Arianna's. She's just a heiress, and he will be already a reigning ruler.

Jon Con has ruled out marriage. He's dying of greyscale and gay, so he's not interested.

10 hours ago, Megorova said:

If GC had support of Redwynes and Tyrells, then they could have easily went unnoticed thru those waters, safely avoided Ironborn, and got to Casterly Rock, where they have used some sort of trick to seize the castle. There are caves under the castle. Maybe some of those caves are connected to the outside, and Varys knows about it. Maybe it was Tyrion, who told about it, in his drunken stupor, while he was traveling to Essos. And that boy, that took care of Tyrion during his sea-travel, was one of Varys' Little birds. So Varys' people can get inside of CR, and Lannister soldiers wouldn't even notice, that the castle was invaded.

Is this a plan that Jon Connington is unaware of? He clearly doesn't know where the missing parts of his army are.

They were hit by a storm and the captains just started off loading them wherever they found land. There are reports of elephants in the Rainwood, and others having been dumped on the Stepstones I think. It's not a secret plot, it's just a plan not going entirely as hoped.

[Megorova]

5 hours ago, Shouldve Taken The Black said:

Is this a plan that Jon Connington is unaware of?

He doesn't know, whether fAegon is real or not, but Varys and Illyrio know the truth. So they (V&I and Golden Company) keep things from him. It becomes obvious, in that chapter, when he introduced Young Griff to GC. So it is possible, that half of GC is acting separately from JonCon, and he has no idea about it.

5 hours ago, Shouldve Taken The Black said:

Jon Con has ruled out marriage. He's dying of greyscale and gay, so he's not interested.

It doesn't matter whether he is interested or not. If fAegon will ask him to do it, or will order him to marry, then JonCon doesn't have a choice. No? He can reveal, that he has greyscale, but as long as that isn't known, they (V&I and fAegon) will have plans, how to use him.

[John Suburbs]

18 hours ago, Megorova said:

One of previous rulling Princesses of Dorne, Aliandra Martell, did married with a man, that wasn't a prince or anything close to it - Drazenko Rogare, uncle of Larra Rogare (mother of Aegon IV). Arianne's mother is Lady Mellario, a noblewoman from Norvos. She's not a Princess, but Doran still married with her. Also if JonCon will become Lord of Stormlands, then his position will be even higher than Arianna's. She's just a heiress, and he will be already a reigning ruler.

And it wouldn't be GC's 10K vs Tyrell's 30K, more like 10+30 vs Lannisters.

Redwynes, most likely, are working for Varys and Illyrio. Olenna Tyrell was born Redwyne, so she and her son Mace, and her grandchildren will support whoever Olenna will tell them to. And she will tell them to support fAegon. It seems, that Tyrells were in cohorts with Varys as far as Robert's Rebellion, and that's why even though officially Tyrells were supporters of Targaryens, nearly all Rebellion they have spent doing absolutely nothing, while they could have marched to King's Landing and saved Aerys, though they didn't. Why? -> Because they are actually supporters of Blackfyres. They had a grudge against Targaryens since failed conquest of Dorne, after which Lord Tyrell was killed by hundreds scorpions. Next Targaryen King has forgiven Dornishmen for their betrayal, and didn't punished them for Tyrell's death. Two generations later, King Daeron II Targaryen has married with Mariah Martell. And one of his grandchildren, Maekar, also married with a Dornishwoman, Dyanna Dayne. And they even have build Summerhall in Dornish Marches. So it's likely, that Tyrells weren't very happy with Targaryens and their decisions. Thus it's possible, that Tyrells were secret supporters of Blackfyres, were and still are.

If GC had support of Redwynes and Tyrells, then they could have easily went unnoticed thru those waters, safely avoided Ironborn, and got to Casterly Rock, where they have used some sort of trick to seize the castle. There are caves under the castle. Maybe some of those caves are connected to the outside, and Varys knows about it. Maybe it was Tyrion, who told about it, in his drunken stupor, while he was traveling to Essos. And that boy, that took care of Tyrion during his sea-travel, was one of Varys' Little birds. So Varys' people can get inside of CR, and Lannister soldiers wouldn't even notice, that the castle was invaded.

All very interesting, and there is probably a lot of truth to it. My only point is that this plan can fall apart in numerous ways, just like Tyrion's advice for fAegon to invade now rather than seek out Dany.

There's an old military adage: "As soon as the fighting starts, throw the plan out the window."

 

[Shouldve Taken The Black]

16 hours ago, Megorova said:

He doesn't know, whether fAegon is real or not, but Varys and Illyrio know the truth. So they (V&I and Golden Company) keep things from him. It becomes obvious, in that chapter, when he introduced Young Griff to GC. So it is possible, that half of GC is acting separately from JonCon, and he has no idea about it.

It doesn't matter whether he is interested or not. If fAegon will ask him to do it, or will order him to marry, then JonCon doesn't have a choice. No? He can reveal, that he has greyscale, but as long as that isn't known, they (V&I and fAegon) will have plans, how to use him.

Yes, people keep things from him, but I see no value in keeping that sort of thing from him. What gain is there?

He's already ruled out marriage. It's him who is making the political decisions, not Aegon.