The Stannis Plan and why he wrote the Pink Letter.

[kissdbyfire]

The Rickon issue may be resolved if Davos lands on EbtS w/ Rickon, Shaggy, and Osha in time. I’ll admit I’m fuzzy on the Davos’ timeline in relation to the other characters, but wasn’t Davos’ last chapter well before all the rest happened? 

[three-eyed monkey]

1 hour ago, Nevets said:

Which is a probable motive of the PL.  Ramsay is establishing that Jon is a liar and an enemy of the Crown, thus damaging his credibility.  If he says FArya is fake, he can more easily be branded a liar.

Firstly, Jon is already considered an enemy of the crown for harboring the rebel Stannis.

"Snow shares Lord Eddard's taste for treason too," she said. "The father would have handed the realm to Stannis. The son has given him lands and castles."

"The Night's Watch is sworn to take no part in the wars of the Seven Kingdoms," Pycelle reminded them. "For thousands of years the black brothers have upheld that tradition."

"Until now," said Cersei. "The bastard boy has written us to avow that the Night's Watch takes no side, but his actions give the lie to his words. He has given Stannis food and shelter, yet has the insolence to plead with us for arms and men."

"An outrage," declared Lord Merryweather. "We cannot allow the Night's Watch to join its strength to that of Lord Stannis."

"We must declare this Snow a traitor and a rebel," agreed Ser Harys Swyft. "The black brothers must remove him."

Grand Maester Pycelle nodded ponderously. "I propose that we inform Castle Black that no more men will be sent to them until such time as Snow is gone."

...

"Alas, I have been dismissed from the council, although for the nonce they allow me to continue my work with the eunuch's whisperers. The realm is being ruled by Ser Harys Swyft and Grand Maester Pycelle.

This is one of the main drivers behind Bowen Marsh's actions in Jon XIII. He's obviously had a letter from the Hand of the King, Swyft at the time. That's why he did it "For the Watch."

Secondly, Ramsay doesn't need to write a letter to Jon to establish him as a liar if he has proof hanging in a cage in Winterfell.

And the Boltons know Arya is fake so they are not going to write to him and demand their imposter back as Jon would obviously know the real Arya. Ramsay did not write the letter, under false pretence or otherwise, which is why there is no hint of a motive for Ramsay in the text, and why he has no motive that makes sense except "he's crazy", "he's out of contro,l" and other such things.

 

[Nevets]

6 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

The Rickon issue may be resolved if Davos lands on EbtS w/ Rickon, Shaggy, and Osha in time. I’ll admit I’m fuzzy on the Davos’ timeline in relation to the other characters, but wasn’t Davos’ last chapter well before all the rest happened? 

Davos's last chapter was his meeting with Manderly at White Harbour.  Plenty of time to go to Skagos and back.  I have a suspicion he may wind up at Hardhome, though (the timing is about right), and I have a nasty feeling that Rickon isn't getting south of the Wall for some time.  Martin doesn't like making things easy for his characters, and keeping Rickon up North would make life difficult for a lot of people.

[Alexis-something-Rose]

Has anyone wondered where Robett Glover is with that army he was trying to raise in White Harbor? He knows exactly what's going on. He knows about Wyman's plans and Rickon and Davos being alive.

He was part of that conversation with Davos and Wyman for a reason. 

[kissdbyfire]

55 minutes ago, Nevets said:

Davos's last chapter was his meeting with Manderly at White Harbour.  Plenty of time to go to Skagos and back.  I have a suspicion he may wind up at Hardhome, though (the timing is about right), and I have a nasty feeling that Rickon isn't getting south of the Wall for some time.  Martin doesn't like making things easy for his characters, and keeping Rickon up North would make life difficult for a lot of people.

Fair point. I do think HH is a possibility too. But EbtS is right there, very near Skagos... 

32 minutes ago, Alexis-something-Rose said:

Has anyone wondered where Robett Glover is with that army he was trying to raise in White Harbor? He knows exactly what's going on. He knows about Wyman's plans and Rickon and Davos being alive.

He was part of that conversation with Davos and Wyman for a reason. 

Yes, I do wonder about his whereabouts often. And his brother’s, and Maege, who now has two other daughters we haven’t met yet w/ her. I mean, it is possible Lyra and Jory were w/ her all along, but we never heard of them before. Now, per Alysane, they’re w/ Maege. Which explains why Lyanna replies to Stannis. But does that mean Maege went to BI at some point? Did she send for her daughters somehow? Why? So many questions... 

ETA: the dingo ate my link:

https://atlasoficeandfireblog.files.wordpress.com/2017/01/westeros-the-north.png

[Alexis-something-Rose]

11 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

Yes, I do wonder about his whereabouts often. And his brother’s, and Maege, who now has two other daughters we haven’t met yet w/ her. I mean, it is possible Lyra and Jory were w/ her all along, but we never heard of them before. Now, per Alysane, they’re w/ Maege. Which explains why Lyanna replies to Stannis. But does that mean Maege went to BI at some point? Did she send for her daughters somehow? Why? So many questions... 

I don't know if this counts for you as us knowing that Maege's daughters are with her all along since we don't get their names until ADWD (AFFC, appendix), but there's this quote here;

Catelyn wondered if Lady Maege had reached the Neck as yet. She had taken her other daughters with her, but as one of Robb's battle companions Dacey had chosen to remain by his side. (Catelyn VII, ASOS 51)

I wouldn't be surprised personally if Robett Glover's army of green boys and petty lord bannermen of Wyman showed up in time to assist Stannis at Winterfell. And he is a wealth of information. He knows about Rickon and there's a good chance he knows about the will.

[kissdbyfire]

20 minutes ago, Alexis-something-Rose said:

I don't know if this counts for you as us knowing that Maege's daughters are with her all along since we don't get their names until ADWD (AFFC, appendix), but there's this quote here;

Catelyn wondered if Lady Maege had reached the Neck as yet. She had taken her other daughters with her, but as one of Robb's battle companions Dacey had chosen to remain by his side. (Catelyn VII, ASOS 51)

 

It most definitely counts. I didn’t remember that at all. Cheers.

20 minutes ago, Alexis-something-Rose said:

I wouldn't be surprised personally if Robett Glover's army of green boys and petty lord bannermen of Wyman showed up in time to assist Stannis at Winterfell. And he is a wealth of information. He knows about Rickon and there's a good chance he knows about the will.

Absolutely. He’s just the bloke to turn up at some point and spill the beans. 

[three-eyed monkey]

2 hours ago, Alexis-something-Rose said:

Has anyone wondered where Robett Glover is with that army he was trying to raise in White Harbor? He knows exactly what's going on. He knows about Wyman's plans and Rickon and Davos being alive.

He was part of that conversation with Davos and Wyman for a reason. 

There are many who suspect Glover is near Winterfell with that army, ready to assert the North's own will over whoever wins between Stannis and the Bolton/Frey alliance.

1 hour ago, kissdbyfire said:

But does that mean Maege went to BI at some point? Did she send for her daughters somehow? Why?

Maege definitely contacted Bear Island because Lyanna knows about Robb's will and the new King in the North whose name is STARK.

 

[dialt]

12 hours ago, three-eyed monkey said:

irstly, Jon is already considered an enemy of the crown for harboring the rebel Stannis.

"Snow shares Lord Eddard's taste for treason too," she said. "The father would have handed the realm to Stannis. The son has given him lands and castles."

"The Night's Watch is sworn to take no part in the wars of the Seven Kingdoms," Pycelle reminded them. "For thousands of years the black brothers have upheld that tradition."

"Until now," said Cersei. "The bastard boy has written us to avow that the Night's Watch takes no side, but his actions give the lie to his words. He has given Stannis food and shelter, yet has the insolence to plead with us for arms and men."

"An outrage," declared Lord Merryweather. "We cannot allow the Night's Watch to join its strength to that of Lord Stannis."

"We must declare this Snow a traitor and a rebel," agreed Ser Harys Swyft. "The black brothers must remove him."

Grand Maester Pycelle nodded ponderously. "I propose that we inform Castle Black that no more men will be sent to them until such time as Snow is gone."

But do the Boltons know about that? I don't think so. "We must declare this Snow a traitor" it's not = to "we now declare this Snow a traitor". We have no indication that the Crown did that, before the PL was sent.  Moreover, this happens - if I remeber correctly - before Cersei is arrested by the hight sparrow. I would suppose the issue is suspended, at least officially.

That said, I agree, this issue could be/is the reason as to why the conspircy inside CB takes place.

I'd say, even more so if Jon hasn't been yet declared a traitor. The conspirators may fear to be involved or held responsable if they don't do something vs Jon before the Crown officialy takes action against him.

So I agree with @Nevets on that. I am not sure Ramsey is the author. But if he is, the main poit is related to fArya (and IMO to the chance - if we have to believe the PL - that Jon may meet not only her but Theon too). If that's the case, the Boltons - not knowing yet that the Crown is going to declare Jon a traitor - put themselves in a win-win situation. They may kill Jon in battle. But if he surives, since he left the Wall with an army then he 100% is a traitor and must be executed. In a sense they anticipated the Crown's move and/or gave it a stronger argument.

That said, as you probably know, I think every main theory about the author is not proven raight or wrong so far. And I take seriusly Stannis too.

But I believe that it may work better if the Battle has not yet happened or at least if WF hasn't been taken.

That because, I absolutely agree with you: Stannis tried hard to convince Jon to accept his offer. And since the Karstarks proved to not be loyal to his cause it's fair to assume that Stannis may turn to his original plan. This time deceiving Jon, because he knows him all too well.

Which lead to another issue: I believe that Stannis knows about Mance / Rattleshirt. But if he does, then why did he agree? Only because Mance can be usefull in the battle with the "true" enemy? I don't think that's the only/main reason. From the conversation between Mel and Mance before they decide to reveal to Jon the truth, it looks like they had something in mind. A plan, that needed to gain Jon's trust. The Arya's rescue is the expedient, in fact no one at CB knew of the wedding before Stannis left, so that rescue has to be intended as a bait to win Jon in whatever plan they had in mind. And that "they" to me, is not only Melisandre and Mance but Stannis too. And if so, Stannis is already deceiving Jon. The PL may be a steep further, given the circumstances. That said, on one hand, it is unlikely that Stannis knew about the rescue's plan. But that is something he may put together from Theon's report. Or maybe he does, becasue he's always been communicating with Melisandre via... ravens. I know there are 0 evidences of that. But.. Stannis left CB to go to war. He left his wife and daughter at the Wall. If you leave for a 2 days weekend in the countryside, you bring a mobile with you. You know, just in case. Why in 7 hells, Stannis would have left the Wall without bringing with him a couple of ravens that fly to CB, just in case? And just like the NW's men did during the great expedition beyond the Wall?

[three-eyed monkey]

59 minutes ago, lalt said:

But do the Boltons know about that? I don't think so. "We must declare this Snow a traitor" it's not = to "we now declare this Snow a traitor". We have no indication that the Crown did that, before the PL was sent.  Moreover, this happens - if I remeber correctly - before Cersei is arrested by the hight sparrow. I would suppose the issue is suspended, at least officially.

The Boltons don't know about the small council actions, but my point is that Jon, by harboring the rebel Stannis has already given them an excuse to see him as a traitor to the crown and they don't need to engage in anything letter business to manufacture such a situation. If they have Mance in a cage then that's all they need,

Second point is that while Cersei did suspend the Jon Snow issue in favor of her own plan to have Kettleblack confess to sleeping with Margery and then get sent to the Wall for his crimes where he would kill Jon, the High Sparrow scuttled that plan and imprisoned her, leaving Swyft and Pycelle to run the realm, so it is natural that they dealt with the Jon issue in the manner they had advised in the small council meeting. From a timeline point of view this happened before Jon XIII.

59 minutes ago, lalt said:

That said, I agree, this issue could be/is the reason as to why the conspircy inside CB takes place.

I'd say, even more so if Jon hasn't been yet declared a traitor. The conspirators may fear to be involved or held responsable if they don't do something vs Jon before the Crown officialy takes action against him.

This is the reason, because from a storytelling point of view, the motive should appear somewhere in the text. Take a look at any confirmed theory on any character, you can find the set-up in the text before the pay-off. That's what storytelling is, set-up then pay-off, rinse and repeat.

"We must declare this Snow a traitor and a rebel," agreed Ser Harys Swyft. "The black brothers must remove him."

Grand Maester Pycelle nodded ponderously. "I propose that we inform Castle Black that no more men will be sent to them until such time as Snow is gone."

This is a large part of Marsh's motive and he says as much himself to Jon, he did it "For the Watch", who would have no more men sent to them, the lifeblood of the Watch, until Jon was gone.

We have seen Stannis' motive towards Jon expressed several times in the text, but good luck finding the same for Roose or Ramsay. Ramsay talks about killing Bran and Rickon if they return but never mentions Jon. That's why all Ramsay motives towards Jon are always so speculative and not based on any text.

1 hour ago, lalt said:

Which lead to another issue: I believe that Stannis knows about Mance / Rattleshirt. But if he does, then why did he agree? Only because Mance can be usefull in the battle with the "true" enemy? I don't think that's the only/main reason. 

Stannis does not just know about the switch, he ordered it. It was Stannis who burned the man he had to burn. It was Stannis who took Jon's sage advice about the law ending at the Wall. Mance knows much about the true enemy but more importantly Mance is the only one who can bind the Wildlings to his cause and that parallels Jon and the North.

Plus, Stannis spoke with Mance for hours and Mance is fond of boasting how he sneaked into Winterfell on a couple of occasions. That is the "some cunning in the man" Stannis is talking about. I believe Stannis would see that as something that might be useful at some stage. We don't know if Stannis sent a raven to Mel from Deepwood Motte at the same time he wrote to Jon or if the Mance rescue was Mel and/or Mance's idea. Either way, the story of Abel and the washerwomen that were not washerwomen, given that Abel fits Mance's description, is probably enough for Stannis to work it out.

1 hour ago, lalt said:

Why in 7 hells, Stannis would have left the Wall without bringing with him a couple of ravens that fly to CB, just in case? And just like the NW's men did during the great expedition beyond the Wall?

Common sense suggests that Stannis would indeed keep his line of communication open by bringing ravens, so he might well be in a position to send a raven from the village. (This is what I proposed on the first version of my own thread years ago.) However, the fact that Stannis' baggage train is described in detail when he leaves Deepwood Motte and there is no mention of raven cages, then I'm inclined to go with the text, which suggests to me, along with some language in the letter that is reminiscent of Mance, that the letter was sent from Winterfell.

Come over to the Stannis Plan thread, would love you to get involved in the conversation over there,

[dialt]

2 hours ago, three-eyed monkey said:

The Boltons don't know about the small council actions, but my point is that Jon, by harboring the rebel Stannis has already given them an excuse to see him as a traitor to the crown and they don't need to engage in anything letter business to manufacture such a situation. If they have Mance in a cage then that's all they need,

Second point is that while Cersei did suspend the Jon Snow issue in favor of her own plan to have Kettleblack confess to sleeping with Margery and then get sent to the Wall for his crimes where he would kill Jon, the High Sparrow scuttled that plan and imprisoned her, leaving Swyft and Pycelle to run the realm, so it is natural that they dealt with the Jon issue in the manner they had advised in the small council meeting. From a timeline point of view this happened before Jon XIII.

It's a minor point IMO..... and in all truth I am not sure (I didn't check before replying) if that time line is correct. As far as I rember, Jon sends the letter to KL in one of his fist chapeters of ADWD, shortly before (like the day before) he also sends to Old Town Sam, Aemon and Gilly. If Cersei is present during the council that discusses Jon's letter, then she hasn't been already imprisoned and in fact in ADWD there's not mention of that issue.

However, surely the Crown has already decided. But my point was that the Boltons (just like the conspiratiors inside CB) not knowing  about the Crown's intentions yet, came up with the PL to have a 100% valid argument vs Jon (that is leaving the Wall with an army), fearing that Mance/Abel cannot be 100% trusted by other people. 

But in all honesty, whaterver the case may be, I don't think that changes that much the context. I believe the Boltons motivations are pretty clear if they wrote the PL, and they have to do avoiding Jon+fArya meeting. 

So is the opportunity, in that case. Because of that....

2 hours ago, three-eyed monkey said:

Come over to the Stannis Plan thread, would love you to get involved in the conversation over there,

I'd love to do it.

Like I said, I believe all theories still have to be proven wrong. But because of what I said above about the Boltons, I find far more interesting to discuss, to dig into the other chances. That of Stannis included.

Not to mention that I agree with you on two another things: I belive there must be a reason -  storywise - if ADWD makes such a big deal of Masters not being trustworthy and about Jon's intent of not breaking his vow, untill he does. The latter is something that especially Stannis, Melisandre and Mance know all too well (first hand). At same time, I believe the PL has been written to provoke a specific reaction into Jon. The one he has. But surely those who know him pesonally (Mance, Melisandre and Stannis) may better identify and hit his Achilles heel. And interestingly enough these people have a plan that precedes the PL. 

[three-eyed monkey]

4 minutes ago, lalt said:

However...., I am not sure that time line is correct. Jon sents the letter to KL in one of his fist chapeters of ADWD, shortly before (like the day before) he also sends to Old Town Sam, Aemon and Gilly. If Cersei is present in the council that discusses Jon's letter, then she hasn't been already imprisoned and in fact in ADWD there's not mention - if I remeber well - of that issue.

The small council meeting is early in AFfC, before Cersei is imprisoned. The news comes from the Wall shortly after Jon is raised to Lord Commander. It's not specified who sent the news, but it is made clear that the Lannisters have eyes at the Wall, most probably Janos Slynt at the time, though Marsh is clearly sympathetic towards the crown so it could be him or it could just be a standard raven from the Watch informing the king about their new Lord Commander.

Cersei is later imprisoned when her own plot backfires, and when she is in her cell Qyburn tells her that Swyft and Pycelle are running the realm in her absence, although Kevan has been sent for. So the letter sent by Swyft, who was Hand at the time, would have been sent before Kevan arrived at King's Landing. Jon XIII happens after all of this so I'm pretty certain the timeline is tight.

19 minutes ago, lalt said:

However, surely the Crown has already decided. But my point was that the Bolton (just like the conspiratiors inside CB) not knowing that about the Crown intentions,

The Boltons most likely don't yet know about the crown's intentions around Jon, though it's possible that Roose as Warden of the North was also informed by raven, but in my opinion we have been told enough and seen enough to reasonably assume that Bowen Marsh did know, and was driven to do what he did at least in part by pressure from the crown. He always voiced his disapproval about letting the Wildlings past the Wall, about Jon's support of Stannis, and he warned Jon about choosing the right side in the war between Stannis and the Lannisters, but I think the letter, and possibly the off-screen return of Aliser Thorne, was the catalyst that brought him from disapproval to assassination.

 

3 hours ago, three-eyed monkey said:

Come over to the Stannis Plan thread, would love you to get involved in the conversation over there,

oops. I thought I wrote that on your thread. Debating across two threads can be tricky.

 

35 minutes ago, lalt said:

However, I don't think that changes that much the context. I believe the Boltons motivations are pretty clear if they wrote the PL.

If the Bolton's motive is to get Jon to break his vows so that they brand him an oathbreaker and then kill him, then it's a convoluted and senseless plan. They already hold Mance as proof Jon did not do his duty. They could just send a catspaw with a knife to do the job if they wanted to simply kill Jon. And they would never give him the option of finding the escaped "Arya" and instantly recognizing that she is not in fact Arya and then have leverage against them. Makes no sense.

If you believe the purpose of the letter is to get Jon to break his vows, then Stannis who has repeatedly asked Jon to set his vows aside in the text, must be the prime suspect.

45 minutes ago, lalt said:

At same time, I believe the PL has been written to provoke a specific reaction into Jon. The one he has. But surely those who know him pesonally (Mance, Melisandre and Stannis) may better identify and hit his Achilles heel. And interestingly enough these people have a plan that precedes the PL. 

Exactly.

[Three-Fingered Pete]

19 minutes ago, three-eyed monkey said:

The small council meeting is early in AFfC, before Cersei is imprisoned. The news comes from the Wall shortly after Jon is raised to Lord Commander. It's not specified who sent the news, but it is made clear that the Lannisters have eyes at the Wall, most probably Janos Slynt at the time, though Marsh is clearly sympathetic towards the crown so it could be him or it could just be a standard raven from the Watch informing the king about their new Lord Commander.

Cersei is later imprisoned when her own plot backfires, and when she is in her cell Qyburn tells her that Swyft and Pycelle are running the realm in her absence, although Kevan has been sent for. So the letter sent by Swyft, who was Hand at the time, would have been sent before Kevan arrived at King's Landing. Jon XIII happens after all of this so I'm pretty certain the timeline is tight.

 

Correct. Cersei's imprisonment happens at about the same time as when Tyrion, Penny and Jorah are aboard the ship, but before they are captured as slaves.

 

24 minutes ago, three-eyed monkey said:

If you believe the purpose of the letter is to get Jon to break his vows, then Stannis who has repeatedly asked Jon to set his vows aside in the text, must be the prime suspect.

 

Or Mel, under Stannis' orders, or maybe even on her own. She has much interest in getting Jon off of his butt too.

[Alexis-something-Rose]

13 minutes ago, three-eyed monkey said:

The small council meeting is early in AFfC, before Cersei is imprisoned. The news comes from the Wall shortly after Jon is raised to Lord Commander. It's not specified who sent the news, but it is made clear that the Lannisters have eyes at the Wall, most probably Janos Slynt at the time, though Marsh is clearly sympathetic towards the crown so it could be him or it could just be a standard raven from the Watch informing the king about their new Lord Commander.

Janos Slynt is the one who sent the news to KL. We know Jon sent a letter written by Maester Aemon to KL (Sam I, AFFC), but everything else seems to have come from Slynt.

"If Lord Janos can be believed, he (Stannis) is trying to make common cause with the wildlings," warned Grand Maester Pycelle. (Cersei IV, AFFC 17)

The chapters coming out of order in AFFC and ADWD is a bit of a headache.

[the Other Wolf]

On 11/29/2018 at 1:58 PM, three-eyed monkey said:

sealed with a smear of hard pink wax.

Nice read, thank you.

It is this line that makes me think Ramsey did not write the letter. I would think Ramsey would enjoy making his mark claiming Winterfell to the bastard Jon, not some smear of pink wax. 

Mayhaps you have pushed me further into camp Stannis as the author.

[dialt]

18 hours ago, three-eyed monkey said:

"Until now," said Cersei. "The bastard boy has written us to avow that the Night's Watch takes no side, but his actions give the lie to his words. He has given Stannis food and shelter, yet has the insolence to plead with us for arms and men."

 

If Cersei is saying that, I am afraid not:

38 minutes ago, Alexis-something-Rose said:

Janos Slynt is the one who sent the news to KL. We know Jon sent a letter written by Maester Aemon to KL (Sam I, AFFC), but everything else seems to have come from Slynt.

 

That small council is hold after Jon sent the letter to KL. Of course that doesn't exclude that Slynt communicated too with KL and the Crown before or after.

But still, those events from AFoC are not prior to ADWD. They happen simultaneously. 

However, I still think that is something important to have a better understending of the conspiracy at CB, that IMO starts to take shape by the time in ADWD we read Melisandre's pov (it's something that Mance says about him and Slynt and a fight they had: my take is that Slynt, wanted to get rid of Rattleshirt because he was talking with other men about his plan).

But I do not think that it has be consider important when it comes to PL. Even if the Boltons wrote it. Because not, my point is not (only) that they wanted to provoke that reaction in Jon. My point is that their biggest problem is that Jon may meet fArya and - if the PL is crebible - Theon too.

In addition, if the PL is credible, then it's wirtten after Mance has been captured and tortured... in WF. Meaning that Ramsey has always been in WF (waiting for the news about the battle vs Stannis) or he's back at WF. In both cases, too far to reach fArya (and possibly Theon) before she (they) get at CB.

If so, the risk for the Boltons is that Jon will meet and recognize Jeyne (and questioning Theon) and that he'll let all the 7 kingdoms know about the ruse of the wedding and maybe the turth about Bran and Rickon too. That's the point. Jon cannot meet fArya (and Theon). Therefore the Boltons have to kill him before he could do that. Thus they push Jon into leaving the wall as soon as he read the letter, hopefully with an army. So that he will die in battle or as a deserter. In both case, he won't see fArya and no one will be ever able (not even in a 10 or 20 years time if the context changes) to use Jon's words about fArya's identity, as an excuse to oppose/rebel the Bolton's claim to Winterfell.

This makes sense, imo. But it doesn't invalidate the possibility that someone else wrote the PL.  Even more so, because you don't set up a mystery, a riddle, without any payoff. And you don't choose Theon's chapter as a sample chapter for the TWoW only because that is one of those yet finished. You do it, because you know that it helps other takes on the PL. I admit, however, that is only my personal feeling.

[Alexis-something-Rose]

2 minutes ago, lalt said:

That small council is hold after Jon sent the letter to KL and a day or two before he sends away Sam and Aemon. Of course that doesn't exclude that Slynt communicated too with KL and the Crown before or after.

There's a quote in the text that says he did, in Cersei IV. We don't now how many times he did it before his head was lopped off, but we know he did it once at the very least.

[dialt]

1 minute ago, Alexis-something-Rose said:

There's a quote in the text that says he did, in Cersei IV. We don't now how many times he did it before his head was lopped off, but we know he did it once at the very least.

Thank you, I didn't remember anything pro or contra that. But we were discussing if that small council takes place before or after the Crown receives Jon's letter. And if Cersei speaks about Jon's letter, then it has to be after.

However, it doesn't matter - imo - in order to prove/disprove Stannis as the PL's author.

[three-eyed monkey]

50 minutes ago, the Other Wolf said:

It is this line that makes me think Ramsey did not write the letter. I would think Ramsey would enjoy making his mark claiming Winterfell to the bastard Jon, not some smear of pink wax.

I believe the smear of wax, as opposed to the usual button of wax, indicates that the letter was opened and re-sealed before it was given to Jon, probably by the conspirators.

56 minutes ago, lalt said:

That small council is hold after Jon sent the letter to KL. Of course that doesn't exclude that Slynt communicated too with KL and the Crown before or after. 

But still, those events from AFoC are not prior to ADWD. They happen simultaneously. 

Yes the books run largely in parallel but tie back in near the end of ADwD because Cersei has the chapter where she completes her walk of shame in ADwD, before Jon XIII.

So Jon sent the letter then, as Cersei says (my bad), and then she plots with Kettleblack, the plot fails, she is imprisoned, Swyft and Pycelle run the realm waiting for Kevan, Kevan arrives from Casterly Rock, walk of shame, then Jon XIII. Sorry, I just don't see the problem with the timeline.

1 hour ago, lalt said:

In addition, if the PL is credible, then it's wirtten after Mance has been captured and tortured... in WF. Meaning that Ramsey has always been in WF (waiting for the news about the battle vs Stannis) or he's back at WF. In both cases, too far to reach fArya (and possibly Theon) before she (they) get at CB.

If so, the risk for the Boltons is that Jon will meet and recognize Jeyne (and questioning Theon) and that he'll let all the 7 kingdoms know about the ruse of the wedding and maybe the turth about Bran and Rickon too. That's the point. Jon cannot meet fArya (and Theon). Therefore the Boltons have to kill him before he could do that. Thus they push Jon into leaving the wall as soon as he read the letter, hopefully with an army. So that he will die in battle or as a deserter. In both case, he won't see fArya and no one will be ever able (not even in a 10 or 20 years time if the context changes) to use Jon's words about fArya's identity, as an excuse to oppose/rebel the Bolton's claim to Winterfell. 

This is just grasping at straws for a motive for Ramsay and nothing there is supported by text or reason. Ramsay did not write the letter. That's why no one has ever come up with a reasonable motive that is supported by the text in all the years we've been debating this. Certainly nowhere near the amount of text and reason that supports Stannis as the author.

1 hour ago, lalt said:

And you don't choose Theon's chapter as a sample chapter for the TWoW only because that is one of those yet finished. You do it, because you know that it helps other takes on the PL.

No, the Theon chapter and indeed the whole Battle of Ice, which means at least one more chapter from Asha or Theon, was originally meant to be part of ADwD and would more than likely have went before the climatic Jon XIII. But the book outgrew the publishable limit so some of the chapters were bumped to TWoW. The Battle of Fire in Mereen was also bumped.

[dialt]

15 hours ago, three-eyed monkey said:

I believe the smear of wax, as opposed to the usual button of wax, indicates that the letter was opened and re-sealed before it was given to Jon, probably by the conspirators.

Yes the books run largely in parallel but tie back in near the end of ADwD because Cersei has the chapter where she completes her walk of shame in ADwD, before Jon XIII.

So Jon sent the letter then, as Cersei says (my bad), and then she plots with Kettleblack, the plot fails, she is imprisoned, Swyft and Pycelle run the realm waiting for Kevan, Kevan arrives from Casterly Rock, walk of shame, then Jon XIII. Sorry, I just don't see the problem with the timeline.

This is just grasping at straws for a motive for Ramsay and nothing there is supported by text or reason. Ramsay did not write the letter. That's why no one has ever come up with a reasonable motive that is supported by the text in all the years we've been debating this. Certainly nowhere near the amount of text and reason that supports Stannis as the author.

No, the Theon chapter and indeed the whole Battle of Ice, which means at least one more chapter from Asha or Theon, was originally meant to be part of ADwD and would more than likely have went before the climatic Jon XIII. But the book outgrew the publishable limit so some of the chapters were bumped to TWoW. The Battle of Fire in Mereen was also bumped.

We’re told since ACOK why the wedding between fArya and Ramsey is needed and that the good thing is that not only Sansa had disappeared but that Jon Snow is at the Wall so that he won’t be able to dispute fArya’s identity. Jamie says so. We’re also told in ADWD that Manderly wants not only Rickon but his direwolf too to prove to everybody the boy’s identity. Just because in those circumstances everybody can lie or believe you are. That is why Theon is used to prove fAya’s identity, because that’s the all point. Her identity. If that fails, everything fails. If you give people a fair argument to dispute her identity they will, sooner or later. So I won’t say that the Boltons have not motive. They have the same motive they had to organize the ruse of the wedding with a fake.

But I won’t go on with that, because I believe you made clear your point (as I made mine).

You do believe Stannis wrote the PL and that you have all the elements needed to prove that.

Fair. Personally I have found nothing to disprove once and for all not only Ramsey, but Stannis, Mance etc too. That’s why I am genually willing to discuss why Stannis may be the author. And I don’t think I need to 100% debunk other possibilities to make that one (or another) more compelling. That because IMO, ADWD is not meant to give us the final word on that. TWOW  is. Meanwhile, we have enough to dig into alternative ideas.

About Theon’s chapter, what I meant - in fact - was that if we had the chance to read it, it’s NOT ONLY because it was yet done (before ADWD came out). I suspect other chapters - more than those we know about - were by the time ADWD came out. Still, that is one of the few already available, just because it adds water to the idea that there’s more than what meets the eyes at first glance reading ADWD finale. To be more explicit: because there you may find hints that things don’t match perfectly with the PL as we know it. 

But that’s indeed a matter of pure personal point of view.