Please explain Ramsay and the Pink Letter.

[three-eyed monkey]

35 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

@three-eyed monkey, once Winds is out and the authorship of the PL is put to rest once and for all, I’ll tag you in a post saying the following, “dear three-eyed monkey, I’m ready, whenever you are”. 

Or it will be you, tagging me in a similar fashion. Whatever happens, can’t wait. Lots of fun to be had.

I shall happily prostrate myself before you. If it comes to that.

[The Coconut God]

13 minutes ago, three-eyed monkey said:

I think there would be enough time and confusion for Mance and co to slip away.

In a different kind of book, maybe.  The Boltons have a few thousand soldiers at Winterfell, they can spare a few to contain 4 wildlings.

15 minutes ago, three-eyed monkey said:

I don't follow. You're saying we will see Stannis defeated from Theon or Asha's point of view and then we will know the part about Stannis being dead is true so Ramsay must have written the letter?

Stannis will win the Battle of Ice with little to no losses. I'm saying we'll end the chapter on his men fishing dead Freys from the lakes with intact armor. In between this and the letter, we'll be able to figure out his plan.

18 minutes ago, three-eyed monkey said:

Well, this is your opinion, but I think the northern plot is far more complicated than you give it credit for, and what you are calling flowery side stories are driving the plot beyond where you think it is going.

I'm not rushing you because I'm going to sleep anyway, but let's put it this way. There's no use debating details, because both scenarios are reasonable enough that they can't be called impossible. Tell me instead how it all fits together in the grander scheme of things (or give me a link to an older post). There's no need to elaborate, just a list of bullet points of how your story might develop in Winds/Dream and where it might intersect with other character. I did the same with my Exodus, and it's a very illuminating experience. 

[Clegane'sPup]

4 hours ago, three-eyed monkey said:

Correct. But why would he muddy the waters if Ramsay really was the author of the letter?

 

On 3/28/2019 at 6:01 PM, Clegane'sPup said:

My opinion is martin tried to hard to muddy the water.

To be clear you have provided a rather good rational to support your idea.

I'm thinking what is gonna happen is my post is gonna be zapped and I am gonna be put in time out.

The dastardly pink/bastard letter is a mind fuck.

Since 2011 people have been trying to figure it out.

Easy answer is Ramsey is the author.

The wordage of the letter is mental masturbation.

Quote

 

Your false king's friends are dead. Their heads upon the walls of Winterfell. Come see them, bastard. Your false king lied, and so did you. You told the world you burned the King-Beyond-the-Wall. Instead you sent him to Winterfell to steal my bride from me.

I will have my bride back. If you want Mance Rayder back, come and get him. I have him in a cage for all the north to see, proof of your lies. The cage is cold, but I have made him a warm cloak from the skins of the six whores who came with him to Winterfell.

I want my bride back. I want the false king's queen. I want his daughter and his red witch. I want this wildling princess. I want his little prince, the wildling babe. And I want my Reek. Send them to me, bastard, and I will not trouble you or your black crows. Keep them from me, and I will cut out your bastard's heart and eat it.

Ramsay Bolton,
Trueborn Lord of Winterfell.

 

 

 

Doesn't matter who wrote the letter. No body is going nowhere quickly due to martin's snow.

All the letter did was threaten Jon and incite the boy.

Jon Snow, the bastard son of Eddard Stark, is Lord Commander of the NW.  The 16-17 year old LC of the NW has seemingly thrown in with Stannis, who according to the Iron Throne is a traitor. Yeah, Lannister (Baratheon) is still in charge of Westeros.

Roose, Lord of Dreadfort, is now Warden of the North. Roose's son, Ramsey, via the marriage to Jeyne/Arya is Lord of WF.

That doesn't matter because martin made it very clear in DwD's the north is snowbound.

Unless there are magical snowplows clearing paths the horses --- garrons, palfreys, destriers --- the mode of Westeros transportation --- people are stuck where they are.  Har! not so --- the banker traveled from the Wall to Deepwood to Wf and then to the crofters village.

So for shytes and giggles Manderly's and Frey's shoveled their way three days to reach Stanns's camp.

If martin had delivered his material in a timely manner I would not be picking apart martin's story.

 

 

 

 

[Nevets]

18 hours ago, The Coconut God said:

• Stannis dresses up his soldiers in Frey and Manderly armor. He cuts off the heads of some of his own dead (there are plenty who died of cold and hunger, even lords and knights) and sends them ahead to the Boltons together with his "magic" sword, as proof that the Freys "won".
• The Boltons receive the news. Ramsay, excited that he can now focus on looking for his wife and his Reek and claiming vengeance on Jon, goes to write the Pink Letter. Roose goes in the courtyard to receive the Freys, with the Bolton seal on him.

Are you suggesting that Stannis is going to successfully use a false flag ploy against the Boltons??  This is the sort of thing the Boltons do all the time.  Unless the Boltons recognize the guys in charge, and more men besides, nobody is getting in.  And considering conditions in the castle, nobody may be getting in in any case.  I wouldn't be surprised if Roose sent out the Frey and Manderly to get rid of them.  In which case, the doors will remain locked.

[The Mother of The Others]

Yes.  Not brought up often enough.  You don't mess with the Zohan.   Boltons don't get outtrickstered.    Ooh.  This is a great way to twist the readers' guts!  Have Stan's trickery take longer than it should, and then you realize the bolton men have been stalling them at the gate and they know.  And it's all over.  Stannis dies in his own trap.   Outwitted in real time by the guys who've won these sneak fests repeatedly.  "Duke is Duke."

Then... when the Others come, the Boltons will get to "parlay" with them instead of Stannis, which could be a lot more delish.   Then, Stan can rise when a white walker waves his hand to create the king without a shadow seen in the visions.   Then, something Mel magicked into Stannis as a protection prevents the Others from exercising their control over him.  He's a loose cannon of Cold.  And HE takes the walkers down.  HE fucks up winterfell whose walls suddenly don't do quite so much in the way of protecting the quaking boltons within.   And Stannis the Menace is marching south to meet the prophecied fire army.   That'd be hot.

[The Coconut God]

4 hours ago, Nevets said:

Are you suggesting that Stannis is going to successfully use a false flag ploy against the Boltons??  This is the sort of thing the Boltons do all the time.  Unless the Boltons recognize the guys in charge, and more men besides, nobody is getting in.  And considering conditions in the castle, nobody may be getting in in any case.  I wouldn't be surprised if Roose sent out the Frey and Manderly to get rid of them.  In which case, the doors will remain locked.

That's the whole point of sending the heads and the sword in first, to make Roose certain that they won. The ones bringing them can be clansmen passing of as Karstark men, after all Karstark would be eager to finally show his loyalty in the open and consolidate his alliance with Roose. What better way than to ride in Winterfell first, leaving the slower southerners and armored knights behind?

The Boltons can't possibly check people's faces out in the courtyard when everyone is dressed in thick clothes and armor and likely caked in snow. And they have no reason to mistrust or betray the Freys. They cooked the Red Wedding together, they are both loyal in the face of the Crown, they sealed an alliance by marriage, and the Freys have no interests in the North that could concern Roose, unlike his fellow northern lords. Keeping them out would only ruin their alliances and make them even more vulnerable to the likes of Manderly and Umber.

The Boltons aren't gods, they can still be fooled.

3 hours ago, The Mother of The Others said:

Yes.  Not brought up often enough.  You don't mess with the Zohan.   Boltons don't get outtrickstered.    Ooh.  This is a great way to twist the readers' guts!  Have Stan's trickery take longer than it should, and then you realize the bolton men have been stalling them at the gate and they know.  And it's all over.  Stannis dies in his own trap.   Outwitted in real time by the guys who've won these sneak fests repeatedly.  "Duke is Duke."

Then... when the Others come, the Boltons will get to "parlay" with them instead of Stannis, which could be a lot more delish.   Then, Stan can rise when a white walker waves his hand to create the king without a shadow seen in the visions.   Then, something Mel magicked into Stannis as a protection prevents the Others from exercising their control over him.  He's a loose cannon of Cold.  And HE takes the walkers down.  HE fucks up winterfell whose walls suddenly don't do quite so much in the way of protecting the quaking boltons within.   And Stannis the Menace is marching south to meet the prophecied fire army.   That'd be hot.

As much as I like this, and I do, it's a really cool scenario, it's doesn't hold together very well. Stannis would need to exist there in limbo in between the Pink Letter the Others arriving at Winterfell, and it would basically leave Jon with nothing to do story-wise.

No, the Boltons are losing this one, and the other big tell is that Ramsey never mentions Asha. He throws everything and the kitchen sink in that letter, he would have said something about Asha if he even knew she was with Stannis; getting Reek worked up about it would have been reason enough, since he thought he was with Jon.

Unless you think that Stannis dies at the Battle of Winterfell and Ramsay didn't write the Pink Letter. 

[Ser Hedge]

7 hours ago, The Coconut God said:

I'm saying we'll end the chapter on his men fishing dead Freys from the lakes with intact armor.

Great discussion. Not to be nitpicking, but the above point got me thinking - if the battle goes down as most of us think, most Frey battle standards, surcoats, helms and horses (everything needed to impersonate them) are gone and I don't think any of that is getting fished out in those conditions.

1 hour ago, The Coconut God said:

The ones bringing them can be clansmen passing of as Karstark men, after all Karstark would be eager to finally show his loyalty in the open and consolidate his alliance with Roose. What better way than to ride in Winterfell first, leaving the slower southerners and armored knights behind?

This could work, but you would need some recognizable Karstark nobility leading them unless the plan is to attack immediately upon gaining entry. It would be very suspicious if the castellan, none of his sons or grandsons were leading the men. Mountain clan chiefs impersonating Karstark nobility would not pass muster. It was suggested Stannis keep some Karstark hostages and let the others go to WF. That's possible, but it's very risky. The hostages might make sure they don't turn their cloaks, but what if they are just not clever enough to sell their story?

I think he's better off sending a raven with all the claims first and attacking immediately upon entry (there is still the problem of not enough horses for his Stormlanders and lack of Frey heraldry). Manderleys returning without any Freys has its issues too, but the only way out if the Freys are at the bottom of the lake is to have Karstarks and Manderleys return to WF with clansmen amongst the Karstarks and Stormlanders amongst the Manderleys. In this case though, you have to attack immediately once inside. 

So, I think we can rule out delivering heads and magic sword and waiting for the main host to arrive.

All this assuming Ramsey is not leading a third column. If he was and Stannis won, then Ramsay obviously didn't write the PL.   If Stannis lost, then obviously Stannis didn't write it. If Ramsay saw some of what went down at the lake and rode back with his tail between his legs, then he could have sent the PL as psy ops propaganda, but in this scenario, Stannis is not launching his false flag attack and will have to survive on all the dead horses from the battle until supplies reach from somewhere - WH? Manderley's hidden army emerges and escort everyone away to WH. Ned's girl is free anyway, so WF can wait.

Way too many scenarios still.

 

[three-eyed monkey]

10 hours ago, The Coconut God said:

I'm not rushing you because I'm going to sleep anyway, but let's put it this way. There's no use debating details, because both scenarios are reasonable enough that they can't be called impossible. Tell me instead how it all fits together in the grander scheme of things (or give me a link to an older post). There's no need to elaborate, just a list of bullet points of how your story might develop in Winds/Dream and where it might intersect with other character. I did the same with my Exodus, and it's a very illuminating experience. 

I'll take this illuminating Exodus experience first and get back to you.

 

[The Coconut God]

40 minutes ago, Ser Hedge said:

Great discussion. Not to be nitpicking, but the above point got me thinking - if the battle goes down as most of us think, most Frey battle standards, surcoats, helms and horses (everything needed to impersonate them) are gone and I don't think any of that is getting fished out in those conditions.

The dead Freys won't stay on the bottom of the lake for long because corpses tend to float. And cold water is denser and therefore more buoyant, so I don't think the extra weight of the armor will be a problem, especially for the knights and lords who, having died in their stirrups, will probably be dragged up by the larger, more gas-filled corpses of their horses. Helms may by more problematic if they fall off, but they can just get a few people on boats and drag nets along the bottom to scoop them up.

Of course, it will take a while for the bodies to float up and for Stannis's men to fish them out and strip them of their gear, but that's where the "seven days of battle" line probably comes from. It will be fun when the Others come and Stannis has to fight those bloated, naked Freys anyway.

1 hour ago, Ser Hedge said:

This could work, but you would need some recognizable Karstark nobility leading them unless the plan is to attack immediately upon gaining entry. It would be very suspicious if the castellan, none of his sons or grandsons were leading the men. Mountain clan chiefs impersonating Karstark nobility would not pass muster. It was suggested Stannis keep some Karstark hostages and let the others go to WF. That's possible, but it's very risky. The hostages might make sure they don't turn their cloaks, but what if they are just not clever enough to sell their story?

I do think the plan is to attack right away, even as soon as enough men have gone through to ensure the gates will stay open.

A hard fought battle is a good excuse to come back with an unfamiliar commander; you can say the previous one was killed. There are reasonable chances that Roose would know the Karstark castellan, but would he know the Karstark castellan's third son? I say you have pretty good odds betting on "no", and any younger clansman can play that part. In fact, I take that back, Stannis wouldn't need to bet at all. He can't use the Karstark soldiers in the ruse, but he can ask them if Roose Bolton ever visited their castle, and who was around when he did it.

As for the Frey and Manderly officers, all they need to do is dress people in their armor, nobody would ask them to take off their hats or padded helms in the freezing cold. Hell, they would know what the corpses look like, so they can use serviceable lookalikes, and/or feign injuries to avoid talking.

1 hour ago, Ser Hedge said:

So, I think we can rule out delivering heads and magic sword and waiting for the main host to arrive.

I don't see how we can rule them out. They are in the letter, and Stannis would have a very logical reason to send them. 1+1=2.

Just to clarify, I'm not saying they would arrive days earlier in place of a raven, I'm saying they will be delivered to Roose an hour or two before the main column arrives. When you bring back trophies from a battle, the first thing you do is deliver them to the lord so he can savor his victory. You don't keep him waiting until the last soldier drags his feet through the gates.

This also allows the victorious troops to be greeted by the heads of their foes impaled on the walls when they return. It's just how things are done, and it's also convenient for Stannis.

[Ser Hedge]

2 hours ago, The Coconut God said:

The dead Freys won't stay on the bottom of the lake for long because corpses tend to float. And cold water is denser and therefore more buoyant, so I don't think the extra weight of the armor 

Armour and chain mail will be a problem. A corpse in full steel plate will not be floating to the surface.

2 hours ago, The Coconut God said:

Helms may by more problematic if they fall off, but they can just get a few people on boats and drag nets along the bottom to scoop them up.

The surface of the lake is going to freeze over again.

No, the bulk of Frey heraldry and knightly panoply and accoutrements are a write-off, with the exception of those belonging to any killed onshore at the beginning of the battle and those of a surrendering rearguard. 

So, if the plot really demands, I suppose you can have a handful of pretender 'Freys', but it's going to be a sad little band.

2 hours ago, The Coconut God said:

but would he know the Karstark castellan's third son? I say you have pretty good odds betting on "no", and any younger clansman can play that part.

Whoresbane might, the Flint of widow's watch might, actually the Dreadfort is the closest castle to the Karhold and the nobility interact with each other. They are not Targaryens, so if you do not want to marry a commoner or your steward's daughter, they will get around. Ok, if you really need to stretch it because the plot has got really tangled already, fine the youngest two grandsons can be impersonated, but his long can a mountain clansman pull it off? They may have a different accent in the Highlands - the North is quite big, there will be regional variations.

2 hours ago, The Coconut God said:

Just to clarify, I'm not saying they would arrive days earlier in place of a raven, I'm saying they will be delivered to Roose an hour or two before the main column arrives.

Why risk your deception from being exposed in those two hours? Ride together, carry your trophies at the head of the column.

2 hours ago, The Coconut God said:

I do think the plan is to attack right away, even as soon as enough men have gone through to ensure the gates will stay open.

Yep, agree.

2 hours ago, The Coconut God said:

They are in the letter, and Stannis would have a very logical reason to send them. 1+1=2.

For others reading the thread, I was trying to keep the extract short - this refers to the heads and the magic sword.

Sorry @The Coconut God I don't follow your reasoning. The mention of anything in the PL is not proof it happened really. Irrespective of authorship of the letter, the heads on the walls is just a standard medieval claim/boast. The sword is more interesting, depending on your view of authorship, there might be a clue there for Mel or not. If Stannis wrote the letter after taking WF, he need not have delivered the sword before. Similarly, if Mance, Mel or a NWman wrote the letter, they know about the sword anyway. If Ramsay or another northerner wrote the letter, maybe they had heard of Stannis' flaming sword, it's not impossible, word gets around, so they thought they'd make the letter sound authentic. Or Stannis was really defeated and the sword taken. So, we don't know for a fact that heads and sword were sent ahead - it's just a possible theory, but looks quite unlikely for the reasons above and in the last post.

[The Coconut God]

@Ser Hedge I think we are at a point where you're just inventing problems for the sake of the argument. Why send the sword ahead, is a clansman's accent good enough to pass for a Karstark, is a dead horse's buoyancy enough to lift the extra 15-20 kg of his rider's plate armor or the extra 10 kg of a mail hauberk? Is George working with the Mythbusters and a team of historians to make sure his story is 100% scientifically accurate?

All that when the idea that anyone other than Ramsay wrote the letter is already tinfoil. Nobody could possibly predict what sort of effects the letter would have on Jon and the people at the Wall, so it's borderline nonsensical to assume that this was a deliberate plan to make Jon bring forces south or whatever. Can the standards for realism be the same all across the board in this discussion? 

[Ser Hedge]

14 minutes ago, The Coconut God said:

Why send the sword ahead,

Yes, exactly, that's all I wanted to say. Why take the risk of exposure in sending the sword and heads ahead?

Everything above was in support of why that is not feasible, or very risky, and hence unlikely to have happened. If everybody agrees, it eliminates one theoretical scenario and we can concentrate on the others.

In the end, hopefully we'll have a few feasible sets of sequences of events left standing and then we can see which PL author is best supported by each sequence, but until we get there we just have to rule out events that require way too much stretching.

IMO, above we eliminated the likelihood of heads and sword carried by an advance party. Let's see what other posters think.

[Ser Hedge]

On 3/30/2019 at 2:12 AM, Clegane'sPup said:

Unless there are magical snowplows clearing paths the horses --- garrons, palfreys, destriers --- the mode of Westeros transportation --- people are stuck where they are.  Har! not so --- the banker traveled from the Wall to Deepwood to Wf and then to the crofters village.

I hear you. FWIW, the in-universe rule is if you ride a northern garron with 'bear paws', or are a hardy northerner wearing bear paws on your feet, then you can still get around. Not just the Bravosi's posse, but even the entire Karstark crowd found Stannis at the CV. Stannis' southrons mostly ride heavy horses bred to carry armoured riders and their own armour. They all refused to wear bear paws and without enough fodder perished. Presumably the Bravosi and the Karstarks carried forage for their lighter garrons with them, so their horses evaded that fate.

Both the Freys and the Manderleys likely have a significant component of heavy cavalry. Since it's a only 3 day ride, they might be able to carry enough forage, but it will still be slow going with armoured destriers in the party. Explains how the Banker in a wedding cake hat with his squid entourage and two torture victims manages to outride them (with the right horses, winter tyres and NW guides).

[Clegane'sPup]

2 hours ago, Ser Hedge said:

if you ride a northern garron with 'bear paws', or are a hardy northerner wearing bear paws on your feet, then you can still get around.

Har! dem trisky northmen not only use snow shoes they dress up as trees.

A Dance with Dragons - The Wayward Bride    "To the walls," Asha Greyjoy told her men. She turned her own steps for the watchtower, with Tris Botley right behind her.    The wooden watchtower was the tallest thing this side of the mountains, rising twenty feet above the biggest sentinels and soldier pines in the surrounding woods. "There, Captain," said Cromm, when she made the platform. Asha saw only trees and shadows, the moonlit hills and the snowy peaks beyond. Then she realized that trees were creeping closer. "Oho," she laughed, "these mountain goats have cloaked themselves in pine boughs." The woods were on the move, creeping toward the castle like a slow green tide. She thought back to a tale she had heard as a child, about the children of the forest and their battles with the First Men, when the greenseers turned the trees to warriors.    "We cannot fight so many," Tris Botley said./

 

 

[The Map Guy]

On 3/28/2019 at 6:55 AM, three-eyed monkey said:

How does Mel know who Reek is and why would she quote Theon?

Well I was trying to help all the Mance-team and Stannis-team by connecting the weak point "Reek." But I presented my case for Mel too.

Everyone is so focus on the details of the letter as if it was the only evidence. But GRRM's writing technique is also evidence too.

The whole Theon TWOW chapter had a theme of name confusion. Re-read it and absorb the theme.

Theon said "He wants his bride back. He wants his Reek." For someone who doesn't know who Reek is, that sentence sounds like "bride = Reek"

The author of the Pink Letter may have the confusion too: "bride = Reek".

So I was lending all the Mance-team and Stannis-team this theory-hole fixer.

 

But for Mel:

Perhaps Stannis sent a letter to Mel telling her that he has Arya Stark and she is on her way to CB. In the letter, it also mentioned that Ramsey treated her like shit and gave her pet-name "Reek".

Mel takes this info from the "raven in a storm" and writes the Pink Letter.

FYI, this raven in a STORM with the Pink Letter ... shouldn't it the letter be wet? The last I remembered, the Pink Letter was dry. This letter may have been written locally. Perhaps EVERY SINGLE detail in the letter is made-up.

Anyways to each their own. I just think the author is Mel after re-reading the entire Jon XIII ADWD chapter.

If you guys want to ONLY read the Pink Letter for the 500th time over and over again, do as you will. But your collection of evidence may be restricted.

[three-eyed monkey]

6 hours ago, The Map Guy said:

Anyways to each their own. I just think the author is Mel after re-reading the entire Jon XIII ADWD chapter.

If you guys want to ONLY read the Pink Letter for the 500th time over and over again, do as you will. But your collection of evidence may be restricted.

Well, the Stannis Theory is based on the entire northern story from ADwD and not just Jon XIII or the letter itself. In fact, Stannis motive towards Jon is first mentioned at the end of ASoS. Re-read Jon's entire ADwD arc from I to XIII.

[three-eyed monkey]

7 hours ago, The Map Guy said:

FYI, this raven in a STORM with the Pink Letter ... shouldn't it the letter be wet?

This is a good point.

Maester Rhodry stood beside him, a raven on his arm. The bird's black plumage shone like coal oil in the torchlight. Wet, Theon realized. And in his lordship's hand, a parchment. That will be wet as well. Dark wings, dark words. "Rather than use our swords upon each other, you might try them on Lord Stannis." Lord Bolton unrolled the parchment.

I agree that the pink letter should have been wet on arrival, if indeed it came in a storm by raven.

Some people may argue that the letter was wet and Jon didn't mention it because he expected it to be wet, but I'm not a fan of that type of reasoning.

I believe the letter was most likely opened and read by the conspirators and then re-sealed before it was brought to Jon, as it is sealed with a "smear" of wax instead of the more common button of wax. They would have read it, discussed plans, and then delivered it. I'm not sure how long that would have taken or how much the parchment would have dried out by then?

Some readers, like @bemused have long theorized that the letter was re-written by the conspirators, including Alliser Thorne perhaps, using some of the information within the original letter. I'm not opposed to this idea at all, and if the wet parchment is an issue we need to explain, then I think this makes a lot of sense.

But regardless of whether the letter was re-written by the conspirators or Mel at Castle Black, I still think that it was based on an original letter because those characters at Castle Black would need a source of information from Winterfell that explains the use of Reek. And I think that letter came from Stannis.

[Ser Hedge]

On 3/31/2019 at 12:38 PM, three-eyed monkey said:

characters at Castle Black would need a source of information from Winterfell that explains the use of Reek.

Problem with the Mance Theory ?

I was wondering if the above weakens the Mance theory. I went through the Theon chapters in ADWD: After the feast again, nowhere does he call himself Reek in the presence of the SWs. Rowan and Squirrel seem to have had, however, overheard Theon's prayer to the old gods to let him die as Theon and not Reek, since Rowan soon after says "You want to die as Theon? We can give you that. ...... But not until you have sung for Abel." 

We don't know what song Theon sings for Abel exactly off page. So while there is just enough left open for Mance theorists to argue otherwise, I personally really think it's unlikely Mance would think to put in "I want my Reek" in a letter addressed to Jon - what's the point?

A slight problem with the Stannis Theory as well though

One thing to turn up recently is with regards to false flag attack theories (which are required by the Stannis theory): We have to reckon with a high likelihood of most Freys being sent to the bottom of the lake (the scenario where Stannis wins with the least losses, in a kind of Agincourt with a frozen lake instead of mud - most people's base case) and with the lake quickly re-freezing in those Arctic conditions. This makes disguising Stannis' army as Freys quite hard. A returning Manderly-only army is going to make Roose quite suspicious. Manderley + Karstark might not be just allowed to waltz into WF either, without a lot of questioning at the gate (who's to say the Karstarks really did turn their cloaks or more precisely are not acting as triple agents). Likely, Roose is anyway likely to have sent some scouts after the Freys and Manderleys to have an idea of what's going on. So, the false flag attack by which Stannis takes WF which is a pre-condition for Stannis being able to secure a CB raven to send the PL is by no means a slam dunk, at least the way I've seen it described in the recent past.

So, it looks like this week's winner is the Ramsay theory :-D

Ramsay doesn't have to have a reason for putting Reek in the PL , that's just him being himself ranting, and OTOH, we don't need to assume a false flag attack succeeded - but I'm sure some new evidence is going to come up next week!

[Clegane'sPup]

On 3/29/2019 at 6:03 PM, three-eyed monkey said:

Correct. But why would he muddy the waters if Ramsay really was the author of the letter? He would only be setting up a false mystery which would only amount to a cheap trick in writing terms, and I don't think he would stoop to that. If the letter was from Ramsay then I think GRRM would have made it clear using some of the methods he had already set up, like the huge spiky hand, some flayed skin, etc.

 

On 3/29/2019 at 6:58 PM, kissdbyfire said:

That’s not how I see it at all. It’s not a cheap trick, it’s being a master storyteller. Martin leaves just enough room for other possibilities to not be ruled out, exactly as he does w/ Jon’s parentage. A cheap trick, IMO, would be... if it is revealed that septa Lemore is Ashara Dayne, for instance. After all the ogling  Tyrion does, to fail to notice purple eyes would feel jarring. To me, anyways, and most definitely a cheap trick,  and IMO Martin doesn’t really do that. 

Martin's story got way to big and way to ambiguous, open to more than one interpretation; having a double meaning or unclear or inexact.

While that may be good for online discussion it is not pleasing when trying to figure out wtf is happening story wise.

 

[Clegane'sPup]

This doesn't help with the authorship of the pink/bastard letter.

I do not believe Mance/Abel is in a cage. I believe that Mance makes use of the crypts.

The door was cleared by Dustin's men. BTW if one compares Hodor's breaking the door down to the rebuilt door Dustin's men dig around one might think Eddard's bones are already home. Did Dustin mention whether or not Eddard's crypt/vault/tomb/sepulcher was open or closed.

There is a lord's door behind the dais which three maesters use to enter the Hall. Three maesters from different Houses brought to WF to manage Luwin's ravens.

Stannis has the Dreadfort maester with him now and that maester has ravens.

A Dance with Dragons - The Prince of Winterfell   She [Dustin] might have said more, but then she saw the maesters. Three of them had entered together by the lord's door behind the dais—one tall, one plump, one very young, but in their robes and chains they were three grey peas from a black pod. Before the war, Medrick had served Lord Hornwood, Rhodry Lord Cerwyn, and young Henly Lord Slate. Roose Bolton had brought them all to Winterfell to take charge of Luwin's ravens, so messages might be sent and received from here again./

After the brouhaha breaks out in WF, Roose calls for Mance/Abel to come to the dais. Mance saunters up to the dais, sits on the table and begins to sing a sad, soft song. Then Rowan says to Theon now is the time to stage the rescue attempt.

A Dance with Dragons - Theon I     Roose Bolton gave an approving nod. "As he says. There will be time enough to fight each other once we are done with Stannis." He turned his head, his pale cold eyes searching the hall until they found the bard Abel beside Theon. "Singer," he called, "come sing us something soothing."      Abel bowed. "If it please your lordship." Lute in hand, he sauntered to the dais, hopping nimbly over a corpse or two, and seated himself cross-legged on the high table. As he began to play—a sad, soft song that Theon Greyjoy did not recognize—Ser Hosteen, Ser Aenys, and their fellow Freys turned away to lead their horses from the hall.    Rowan grasped Theon's arm. "The bath. It must be now."/

The pink/bastard letter has to be taken into consideration with the rest of the story. It is my opinion that the northmen can take WF from Bolton. Due to amount of material I am scratching me head and wondering when the Umber located outside the walls of WF dug the trench and planted the stakes that impaled sumbody.

Before the pink/bastard letter was received by Jon, he was going to trek to Hardhome. After the pink/bastard letter Jon is going to ride to WF. He asks for volunteers. Then there is giant issue. Then Jon is stabbed.