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Is Climate Change Impacting Your Long Term Planning?

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On 4/7/2019 at 12:25 PM, DireWolfSpirit said:

Reforestation and better soil management with ground cover crops can help suck carbon out of the atmosphere and store it in the soil. These are two areas we should be striving to improve on everywhere asap imo.

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/2019/01/carbon-capture-trees-atmosphere-climate-change/

Ive thought for years that the correctional departments should offer work opportunities for the incarcerated, planting trees. I know if I was stuck in some jail Id love a chance to do some outdoor work like that. 

the article says even getting ten percent buy in from land owners fails.

You get buy in making it simple and making it worth it. Offer 100$ per acre per year for adopting off cycle soil management carbon capture practices.

That will get every mega corp global conglomerate super farm (the vast majority of agriculture now, unlike the "small" 12,000 acre operation in the article) to buy in and implement it.  You probably need a bigger cash incentive for smaller family farms. but you'll get a lot of carbon bang for your buck just offering free cash to the super global agri congloms that control most farming.

you could titrate up the rate per acre based on the size of the farm. 100 acre farms aren't going to gain much value out of the investment at $10,000 a year, but they probably would at $50,000 per year, but a 1,000 acre farm would definitely do it for $100,000 per year. 

All the policy makers are so fucking stupid at trying to create pay fors and carbon taxes and all these idiotic multi level indirect fuckeries that obscure everything. Fuck the carbon tax, you're probably never going to set the price floor correctly--and no one is ever going to understand it because it will be structured deliberately in such a complicated way that everyone will be able to disagree about how it operates.

But handing out cash per acre for carbon farming? Simple, direct, effective, immediate and not called a tax.

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In terrific news, Gasoline in California is going over $4 per gallon ($5/gal for some octanes), which is a happy accident from a variety of misfortunes at the various refineries providing california's cleaner gasoline blend. So it's not as wonderful as gas going over $4 or $5 per gallon nationally, but every little bit helps.  

If we could get gas up to $10 / gallon, we could make a helluva lot of progress a lot faster.  Shame all the forces and incentives and equity issues working to keep the prices so low. :(

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I think it will take a very long time for you to see any effective returns on a higher gasoline price, both directly with people driving less and indirectly by car manufacturers opting for more fuel efficiency.

Here in Sweden we're at over $6/gallon and have been for a very long time and if anything the amount of traffic just keeps increasing. More logistics is moved *from* trains to trucks every day, and with rising costs of real estate people are commuting further and further every day and choosing cars over public transportation because of reliability and availability issues. This is true for me living in the biggest metropolitan area in the country (45 minutes outside Stockholm) and ten times so for people in rural areas.

Decentralization and logistics planning is the name of the game if you want to fix the transportation sector's contribution to pollution. If people could work closer to home (or afford to live closer to work) and all the services they required could be found within reasonable distances then you remove the need for them to drive as much. As it is now the gas prices could double and people would still live where they live and drive their cars; me and my wife saved ~$300,000 by living 30 minutes away from my job. That's a whole lot of gallons even at $12/gallon.

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9 hours ago, kungtotte said:

Decentralization and logistics planning is the name of the game if you want to fix the transportation sector's contribution to pollution. If people could work closer to home (or afford to live closer to work) and all the services they required could be found within reasonable distances then you remove the need for them to drive as much. As it is now the gas prices could double and people would still live where they live and drive their cars; me and my wife saved ~$300,000 by living 30 minutes away from my job. That's a whole lot of gallons even at $12/gallon.

People working closer to home would work, but it's basically impossible: we'd have to make drastic changes to society as a whole to enforce this. I think the idea of the higher gas prices is to nudge people towards electric cars. It's not just Tesla anymore; there will be a bunch of decent ones from various manufacturers coming out in the next couple of years and they'll be only marginally more expensive than their gasoline counterparts. The current set still costs too much, but once the next generation comes out, the price of gas would make a meaningful impact on the total cost of operation for a car.

Of course, the drawback of this (and the reason carbon taxes as a whole aren't used much) is that everyone who uses cars must spare some extra resources towards this -- whether one chooses to buy an electric car or not, more will still be spent on transportation than before the tax. In most places, the poorest can't afford this so there needs to be a subsidy, but that screws over the people just above the threshold and this can cause unrest (e.g. the yellow vest protests in France).

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I am curious how electric models would hold up in North country. We have 30 degree below zero weather occasionally in our winters up here, and 4 wheel drive is considered a necessity in these conditions. Those little Tesla models ive veiwed would never handle my local road conditions in the dead of winter.

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4 minutes ago, DireWolfSpirit said:

I am curious how electric models would hold up in North country. We have 30 degree below zero weather occasionally in our winters up here, and 4 wheel drive is considered a necessity in these conditions. Those little Tesla models ive veiwed would never handle my local road conditions in the dead of winter.

They seem to work fine in Norway:

Quote

Electric vehicles are now the norm in Norway when it comes to new car sales, accounting for 58 percent of all car sales in March. Tesla's mass market Model 3 was especially popular, accounting for nearly 30 percent of new passenger vehicle sales, the Norwegian Information Council for Road Traffic, or OFV, says.

 

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59 minutes ago, DireWolfSpirit said:

I am curious how electric models would hold up in North country. We have 30 degree below zero weather occasionally in our winters up here, and 4 wheel drive is considered a necessity in these conditions. Those little Tesla models ive veiwed would never handle my local road conditions in the dead of winter. 

They'd be a bit heavier so would get more traction, and electric motor's give higher torque than an ICE, which as I recall is part of the reason they don't need multi-gear transmissions. I suspect this would mean they would handle reasonably well even without 4 wheel drive, but it shouldn't be all that difficult to make a 4 wheel drive electric.

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Posted (edited)

I had seen the headlines regarding a majority of this years new car sales in Norway being electric models. Reason to be optimistic, but im also concerned when I read articles saying theyve had trouble with the lithium power packs in extreme weather. 

I will be very interested in seeing the performance and reliability of these in a year or two-https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a25933730/ford-f-150-electric-pickup-truck-confirmed/

Edited by DireWolfSpirit

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I don't think the performance and reliability should be time dependent, but gasoline engines have a fundamental advantage over batteries in cold weather: combustion intrinsically produces heat so keeping the car and occupants warm is basically free. Electric cars need to spend energy to keep the occupants warm and the battery itself also has optimal operating temperatures which are above freezing. Thus, the range of electric cars will always be reduced in cold weather in a way that doesn't happen for gasoline cars and there isn't a way around this: even if the battery and the rest of the car is somehow redesigned to operate far below freezing (this is hard), the people inside will still need to be warmed.

On the bright side, I checked and the Model 3 can be configured with all-wheel drive as can the Model S (though of course this configuration costs extra). The Model X has it by default. I haven't been able to find detailed specs for most of Tesla's upcoming competitors, but I suspect they'll also have this option.

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14 minutes ago, Altherion said:

I don't think the performance and reliability should be time dependent, but gasoline engines have a fundamental advantage over batteries in cold weather: combustion intrinsically produces heat so keeping the car and occupants warm is basically free.

Waste heat. It's more accurate to say batteries have an advantage over internal combustion in warm weather, since they don't have to convert stored energy into heat when it's not needed. When heat is wanted, the battery isn't using any more energy to create it than combustion does, and it can be directed to where it's needed more efficiently.

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Altherion I didnt mean reliability regarding time dependent, I meant I will be curious to see how reliable the electric F-150 would be when we first start seeing them in showrooms in 2020 , hence the "in a year or two" reference.

Anyways as to cold weather performance all I can say is seeing is believing and when I see other electric trucks able to be out on the road with me when its minus twenty then I will trust them as I do what delivers me to work rain or shine now. 

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I spent my entire youth - my 20s and 30s in England trying to raise awareness about what we're doing to our climate and environment. I felt like King Canute. Now I see an increasing minority of people - especially young people, getting genuinely well-informed and concerned - but too few and not enough. The adults - my generation have damned you to hell and there's little you can do about it.

Even back in the '80s I was acutely aware that the actual problem was our whole capitalist premise - we want growth, development, more. We want our children to have a 'better life than us' in terms of material comfort. The planet could not sustain that then and since those days we've pumped 100% more carbon into the atmosphere. 'Light Green' "solutions" such as electric cars and recycling plastic bags are merely rearranging deckchairs on the Titanic.

We vote into power as the most powerful person on the planet an idiot who sees climate change as a hoax and appoints captains of the most polluting and corrupt businesses into the highest offices; in Europe attempts by leaders to reduce the carbon footprint are met by huge-scale violent demonstrations by the grassroots. In short, the people who care are vastly outnumbered by the short-term greedy, ignorant, selfish people who somehow 'love their children' whilst destroying their futures. We could still mitigate the worst of what is to come, but we won't.

My pessimism is encapsulated in this very TV show. The whole damn theme is an allegory on climate change. Everybody enjoys the show, discusses it, here on this forum, yet there is a collective cognitive dissonance at work. We continue to play the game of thrones in real life while paying scant regard to the real-life Winter that is coming. Okay, people get bored with documentaries and gloomy news, so GRRM found a way to put the message right in our faces in a way that entertains us - and that's all it is - entertainment; ignore the message. That's human nature. We're fucked. I'm out. Sorry.

 

 

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Posted (edited)

I m going to buy more sweaters because the solar cycle looks to be moving towards cold weather the next few years.  Possibly a tactical turtleneck or two if the canucks start moving south.

Edited by mcbigski

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12 minutes ago, mcbigski said:

I m going to buy more sweaters because the solar cycle looks to be moving towards cold weather the next few years.  Possibly a tactical turtleneck or two if the canucks start moving south.

Why would the canucks move south? The only 2 nations who stand to gain from global warming are Canada and Russia. I think one of the reasons Putin is disrupting Western societies is because he foresees Siberia as the world's breadbasket in coming decades and is playing the trumpettes like (willing) idiots as he bides his time.

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On 4/20/2019 at 8:51 PM, Altherion said:

A point about Norway: most of those cars (can't find the source now, but it exists, I swear - it's also logical) are bought by city dwellers. Those living in the districts still swear by gasoline.

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