Book & Show

[Dragon in the North]

5 hours ago, The Coconut God said:

Bringing up the same argument over and over again does not make it better. If you want to believe there will be a canine fight in the books, that's great, but you have no grounds to call it a certainty.

Besides, it's lame anyway. Which of the following scenarios would you prefer:

It doesn’t matter which situation we prefer. What matters is what Martin believes will better serve the story. He’s not going to change his story just to please Stannis fans. Besides, picking between those two situations depends on whether or not you prefer Stannis or Jon. I really enjoyed Stannis in the show and I thought they gave him a really good arc, but I never cared for him in the books. I could never connect with him in the way I connected with the other characters, so I wouldn’t mind if Martin’s northern storyline emulates the show, even though I know Stannis fans wouldn’t be pleased.

[Cas Stark]

For a long time I was 100% sure that the show as elongating Cersei's life, and she was sure to die in Winds, but now, I'm not so sure.  She may beat Aegon, there is certainly tons of foreshadowing in the books also that she will burn KL, so it now seems more possible to me that she will live a lot longer, maybe even long enough to make a deal with Euron, like in the show.

Randyl Tarly betraying the Tyrells, I don't see it, he may lose to Dany or lose to Aegon or lose to someone else, but the show betrayal seemed very out of character for the book character, who, while an asshole, definitely has a code that he lives by and it doesn't seem like it would include that type of a betrayal.

[Dragon in the North]

7 minutes ago, Cas Stark said:

Randyl Tarly betraying the Tyrells, I don't see it, he may lose to Dany or lose to Aegon or lose to someone else, but the show betrayal seemed very out of character for the book character, who, while an asshole, definitely has a code that he lives by and it doesn't seem like it would include that type of a betrayal.

Yeah, I get what you’re saying. I see it as a possibility, but not a probability.

[Ser Gareth]

6 hours ago, The Coconut God said:

Bringing up the same argument over and over again does not make it better. If you want to believe there will be a canine fight in the books, that's great, but you have no grounds to call it a certainty.

Besides, it's lame anyway. Which of the following scenarios would you prefer:

1.

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Stannis lures the Frey and Manderly forces onto the frozen lakes, the ice breaks and most of them drown. A few Manderly knights survive and they tell Stannis that Wyman is actually on his side, and the plan was for them to charge the Freys from behind in the last second and break their line... but of course they were going say that if they lost. Stannis has them all summarily executed because taking prisoners would put his plan at risk, and besides fuck Manderly, he killed his Onion Knight.

Stannis's men all dress up in the drowned soldiers' uniforms. A small group is sent ahead with Lightbringer and some heads chopped off from the men he had lost to hunger and cold, to make the Frey victory more believable. Ramsay starts writing the Pink Letter. By the time he finishes, the "Freys" enter Winterfell and they turn on everyone inside. Ramsay is in a hurry to join his father down below and see what's going on, but he's also a compulsive psychopath. The thought of Jon reading all the cruel things he had written in his letter excites him too much to let it wait, so in lieu of the Bolton sigil he just seals it with a smear of wax and has the maester send it right away. Then he descends... to his doom.

Now, the other northmen have no clue about Stannis's plan. From their perspective, the Freys are trying to kill them, so they fight back fiercely... And Stannis's men don't know they were secretly loyal to the Starks either, so they butcher them like traitors. By the time everyone figures out the truth, a lot of potential allies kill each other senselessly alongside the Boltons. Stannis wins entirely on his own and feeds the Boltons to the flames, but his forces are all but spent and the remaining northmen loath him.

Meanwhile, in the wake of the Pink Letter and Jon's assassination, thinks fall apart hard at Castle Black. Whatever groups decide not to murder each other loot whatever they can and go their separate ways (one of these groups carrying a comatose Jon to Karhold). The castle is abandoned. The black brothers are either killed or they desert. This is the end of the Night's Watch. By the 4th or 5th chapter in the North, the Others breach the Wall and the winds of winter starts howling. Stannis, convinced he is destined to protect the realm from them, burns Shireen in exchange for a boon from Rh'llor, but killing his child gets him nothing. His fight is doomed. With the few men still loyal to him, he goes forth into the blizzard, but only their corpses return.

By the middle of the book, all of the North is lost and the Others descend upon White Harbor as Jon is loading up the Manderly fleet with women and children to flee across the Narrow Sea to Braavos. You see, unlike Stannis, Jon will bend before he breaks. He has learned from Mance that the people are more important than the realm, so he is more than willing to abandon the North and Winterfell if that is the only way to save them. The Iron Bank grants him a loan to keep his people fed, they continue inland through Andalos to find a place to settle, and by the end of the book, he meets Daenerys.

 

2.

Stannis loses to the Boltons, which ruins his entire arc. Somehow, Shireen is burned, because we learned from the show that this is supposed to happen. The extremely dire situation at Castle Black somehow works itself back to normal, with a resurrected Jon in charge of everyone, conveniently no longer beholden to his Night's Watch vows.

Ramsay is the main antagonist in the North for most of the book... for some reason. Must be because him and Jon have such a long list of scores to settle, and Ramsay is such an intelligent and charismatic villain, who would surely keep the combined forces of the Wildlings, Night's Watchmen, Northern Loyalists and Vale Knights in check with his 3,000 remaining Bolton men. The Others can wait, it's not like we've been expecting for them for the entire series!  But hey, this means we will get an EPIC fight between direwolves and dogs, which I'm sure must be thematically crucial to the Song of Ice and Fire (or The Song of Mange and Rabies, as I like to call it...).

Doesn't matter what I prefer.  All that is matters is what has been and what would've been.

Your number two doesn't make much sense either.  I don't see how Stannis losing ruins his entire arc?  He isn't a main character in the books and he served his purpose (helping weaken the realm, bring Mel and Jon together).

As for Ramsay, it clearly won't be the same in the books as the TV show.  My guess is that Ramsay defeats Stannis.  Stannis is seriously (mortally eventually) wounded.  He gets taken back to Castle Black where Mel, with the Queen's permission, burns Shireen to resurrect Stannis.  Obviously as she is trying to resurrect Azor, she'll actually bring Jon back to life instead.

In the meantime Davos will have found Rickon.  This rallies the North to fight against Ramsay again.  Now one of two things will happen here.  Either Ramsay will capture Rickon somehow or defeat Rickon's army leaving Rickon in a dangerous position (maybe under siege somewhere), forcing Jon into action.  Or once Jon learns Rickon is alive he'll head South to help Rickon win back his ancestral home.

As for the Others, the pacing of the Others has been screwed up since the very first book (and indeed the entire series pacing went awry, probably because of GRRM's gardening approach).  All of the above will happen before the Others breach the Wall.  Dany won't even arrive in Westeros until the very end of TWOW and TWOW has a lot of pages to fill....

[Ser Gareth]

1 hour ago, Cas Stark said:

For a long time I was 100% sure that the show as elongating Cersei's life, and she was sure to die in Winds, but now, I'm not so sure.  She may beat Aegon, there is certainly tons of foreshadowing in the books also that she will burn KL, so it now seems more possible to me that she will live a lot longer, maybe even long enough to make a deal with Euron, like in the show.

Randyl Tarly betraying the Tyrells, I don't see it, he may lose to Dany or lose to Aegon or lose to someone else, but the show betrayal seemed very out of character for the book character, who, while an asshole, definitely has a code that he lives by and it doesn't seem like it would include that type of a betrayal.

I agree about Cersei.  I thought she'd be defeated before the Others invasion, mainly because GRRM always said Dany would arrive in Westeros before the Others invaded.  Now I don't think she will be.  I think it looks increasingly likely that the Stark versus Lannister feud will endure beyond the Others invasion.  I still think it's nailed on that Jaime will kill her, after he has been mortally wounded by her or Ser Gregor.  They'll die together but her death will be exclusively caused by Jaime.

[Cas Stark]

If Stannis loses to the Boltons then I will feel his entire story was a waste of time. Books and books full of Stannis losing and losing again and again, to what end?  What's the message there?  He was a born loser and should have quit while he was ahead, LOL?  Why did I read all of that?  Yeah, sure, he's going to break not bend in the end, everyone knows that, but being broken by the Boltons would be sooo unsatisfying. 

[Ser Gareth]

7 minutes ago, Cas Stark said:

If Stannis loses to the Boltons then I will feel his entire story was a waste of time. Books and books full of Stannis losing and losing again and again, to what end?  What's the message there?  He was a born loser and should have quit while he was ahead, LOL?  Why did I read all of that?  Yeah, sure, he's going to break not bend in the end, everyone knows that, but being broken by the Boltons would be sooo unsatisfying. 

Who else is he going to lose to?  My original thought was that he'd lose at the Wall against the Others (this was mainly based on the vision of Jon in black ice at the Wall, I figured the Wall would fall and Jon would resurrect after the Others had already broken through.  Now I am pretty convinced I was wrong!).

Sooner or later Stannis was destined to lose as it was never his story.  The fact its dragged on so long is more a symptom of a certain author dragging stuff out than an unfulfilling end to his arc......

[Cas Stark]

4 minutes ago, Ser Gareth said:

Who else is he going to lose to?  My original thought was that he'd lose at the Wall against the Others (this was mainly based on the vision of Jon in black ice at the Wall, I figured the Wall would fall and Jon would resurrect after the Others had already broken through.  Now I am pretty convinced I was wrong!).

Sooner or later Stannis was destined to lose as it was never his story.  The fact its dragged on so long is more a symptom of a certain author dragging stuff out than an unfulfilling end to his arc......

Yes, doomed to lose.  Should be the Others.  That makes sense, he finally gets a couple wins in the North and dies a heroic death fighting the Others, it could even be a suicidal but honorable death after he realizes he's not AA.  But to lose to a third rate psycho dirt bag like Ramsay Bolton.  Ugh. Gross. Pointless. 

ETA...but I have begun to fear that many of the things that I have been outraged by in the show, are going to turn out to be in the books that will never be written.  I was similarly outraged that the brute Ramsay killed Roose.  I beg the old gods and the new that it isn't that way in the books and Roose takes his son out or someone takes them both out.

[Ser Gareth]

2 minutes ago, Cas Stark said:

Yes, doomed to lose.  Should be the Others.  That makes sense, he finally gets a couple wins in the North and dies a heroic death fighting the Others, it could even be a suicidal but honorable death after he realizes he's not AA.  But to lose to a third rate psycho dirt bag like Ramsay Bolton.  Ugh. Gross. Pointless. 

I don't disagree.  But then I think Ramsay Bolton was a pointless character the whole series could have done without anyway!  Roose Bolton is a far more interesting character.

[Cas Stark]

6 minutes ago, Ser Gareth said:

I don't disagree.  But then I think Ramsay Bolton was a pointless character the whole series could have done without anyway!  Roose Bolton is a far more interesting character.

I thought he was okay, he's a text book case of 'nurture' creating a sociopath, so on that level, I thought he was okay, I could have done without the wedding night and some of the gory details, but whatever.  Enough now, though. Kill him.   I certainly don't want to see him winning and torturing and raping for another book.  He needs to die early in Winds.  Either Stannis kills him or Roose should kill him.  No Jon Snow/Ramsay Bolton showdown, that would be fucking trite and terrible.  

[Ser Gareth]

4 minutes ago, Cas Stark said:

I thought he was okay, he's a text book case of 'nurture' creating a sociopath, so on that level, I thought he was okay, I could have done without the wedding night and some of the gory details, but whatever.  Enough now, though. Kill him.   I certainly don't want to see him winning and torturing and raping for another book.  He needs to die early in Winds.  Either Stannis kills him or Roose should kill him.  No Jon Snow/Ramsay Bolton showdown, that would be fucking trite and terrible.  

I think you might be disappointed.  I wasn't sure if the Battle of the Bastards would be in the books but GRRM's notes convinced me that something of that ilk is going to happen.  Direwolves versus Ramsay's Hounds means Jon vs Ramsay IMO.

[Cas Stark]

3 minutes ago, Ser Gareth said:

I think you might be disappointed.  I wasn't sure if the Battle of the Bastards would be in the books but GRRM's notes convinced me that something of that ilk is going to happen.  Direwolves versus Ramsay's Hounds means Jon vs Ramsay IMO.

Yeah, I expect now that many things the show did they actually got from GRRM, so I expect absolutely to be disappointed.  But I'm probably off this train once the show ends anyway.  No more waiting for something that probably won't ever come, and if it does, it will be even more diminished in quality.  Sad.

[Ser Gareth]

3 minutes ago, Cas Stark said:

Yeah, I expect now that many things the show did they actually got from GRRM, so I expect absolutely to be disappointed.  But I'm probably off this train once the show ends anyway.  No more waiting for something that probably won't ever come, and if it does, it will be even more diminished in quality.  Sad.

I agree.  Whilst I am positive GRRM will set it up better than the show (which is usually a luxury of a book over TV anyway) I think many book fans will be disappointed when they realise how many key outcomes from events will be mirrored in the books.  Unless GRRM decides to change them (which I think he may well be doing).

I will almost certainly get TWOW if it comes out, if for no other reason than morbid curiosity but it was when it was revealed that Dany will spend the large portion of the book away from Meereen and won't get to Westeros near the end of the book that I made up my mind that we'd never get a book ending to the story.  And that was revealed years ago now!

[Lady Fevre Dream]

Why would anyone think a scenario involving direwolf/direwolves and Ramsay's hounds (from the books) MUST involve Jon Snow.  We have Nymeria the direwolf with an awesome wolf pack.  IIRC, in TWOW sample chapter, Arya dreams of Nymeria in a a northern type woodland (?) and even if not, that could be happening soon.  George could have always meant Nymeria's wolf pack, or that and maybe a Shaggydog added?  Or maybe, just Nymeria and her cousin wolfs anyway?  Just a thought. 

[Ser Gareth]

8 minutes ago, Lady Fevre Dream said:

Why would anyone think a scenario involving direwolf/direwolves and Ramsay's hounds (from the books) MUST involve Jon Snow.  We have Nymeria the direwolf with an awesome wolf pack.  IIRC, in TWOW sample chapter, Arya dreams of Nymeria in a a northern type woodland (?) and even if not, that could be happening soon.  George could have always meant Nymeria's wolf pack, or that and maybe a Shaggydog added?  Or maybe, just Nymeria and her cousin wolfs anyway?  Just a thought. 

I thought about that, but it was Direwolves.  There is a possibility that it will be Shaggydog and Nymeria but I can't really see how Ramsay's hounds would be a match for the whole of Nymeria's pack (which actually is a pack that bugs me anyway as logically there is no way it could sustain itself naturally), so the logical conclusion would be it's going to be Ghost and Shaggydog.

[Cas Stark]

1 minute ago, Ser Gareth said:

I thought about that, but it was Direwolves.  There is a possibility that it will be Shaggydog and Nymeria but I can't really see how Ramsay's hounds would be a match for the whole of Nymeria's pack (which actually is a pack that bugs me anyway as logically there is no way it could sustain itself naturally), so the logical conclusion would be it's going to be Ghost and Shaggydog.

I agree here.  Nymeria's pack has killed men and horses. It's supposed to be hundred? of wolves by now....a small pack of a dozen or so dogs is going to be no match at all.  So, if GRRM is planning a showdown between Ramsay's dogs and direwolves then it seems much more likely to be Ghost and Shaggy Dog or Ghost and some other random Northern direwolves. Nymeria's pack is still in the Riverlands, not sure it will go North.

[Lady Fevre Dream]

I'm not so certain that Nymeria is still in the riverlands.

TWOW Mercy Chapter;

The smell of blood was heavy in her nostrils… or was that her nightmare, lingering? She had dreamed of wolves again, of running through some dark pine forest with a great pack at her hells, hard on the scent of prey.

I'd never thought of it, but I have seen others spec that this could be Nymeria in the North already.  While, yes, her pack is large, it does seem to break up in smaller packs as well.  Also, the reason the pack is so big is two reasons, yes, a bit magical, but the wars have provided those wolves with lots of all types of food.  There is nothing that says Nymeria and a part of her pack couldn't split off and head North.  Perhaps it would parallel something Arya chooses to do?

There are four direwolves left in the books.  There could be many combinations to make;  direwolves.  Also, Ramsay's dogs could be sent out after a direwolf...........more than once.  The dogs could be used to try and take out one direwolf at a time and still equal that GRRM quote. 

[Lollygag]

Technically, it doesn't even have to involve direwolves. It can be anyone or anything acting on behalf of the Starks. GRRM does this sort of switcheroo a lot. 

Here we have the Manderlys acting in the Starks' stead. They were hounded from their home as Ramsay has done. Manderly eats his enemies as wolves would do (Frey pies). 

ADWD The Prince of Winterfell

The Manderlys ran from the south once, hounded from their lands and keeps by enemies. Blood runs true. The fat man would like to kill us all, I do not doubt, but he does not have the belly for it, for all his girth. Under that sweaty flesh beats a heart as craven and cringing as … well … yours." 

 

Stoneheart is a shadowcat Stark ripping dogs (Freys) to pieces. No doubt she also has the Boltons and Winterfell in her sights. Mance brings this up in the context of ceding to the rule of another they don't deem as having earned that position. 

ADWD Jon V

The brothers on the wagons had seen this face as well, Jon did not doubt. No one spoke of it, but the message was plain to read for any man with eyes. Jon had once heard Mance Rayder say that most kneelers were sheep. "Now, a dog can herd a flock of sheep," the King-Beyond-the-Wall had said, "but free folk, well, some are shadowcats and some are stones. One kind prowls where they please and will tear your dogs to pieces. The other will not move at all unless you kick them." Neither shadowcats nor stones were like to give up the gods they had worshiped all their lives to bow down before one they hardly knew. 
 

Stannis' army is now engaged in eating humans which is linked to starving wolves and Stannis is set up to execute/sacrifice Theon to the old gods though I don't think this will end up happening. 

 

[Ser Gareth]

You're reaching massively IMO.  It's clearly about actual Direwolves versus Hounds.  It's not about imagery of what a Direwolf could be.  Otherwise it is pointless building up the dogs.

 

[The Coconut God]

23 hours ago, Dragon in the North said:

He’s not going to change his story just to please Stannis fans. Besides, picking between those two situations depends on whether or not you prefer Stannis or Jon. I really enjoyed Stannis in the show and I thought they gave him a really good arc, but I never cared for him in the books. I could never connect with him in the way I connected with the other characters, so I wouldn’t mind if Martin’s northern storyline emulates the show, even though I know Stannis fans wouldn’t be pleased.

Stannis is going to fall relatively early on either way, and whoever defeats him will probably be the main antagonist for Jon. Now, the question is, do you want to see Jon fighting Ramsay, or the Others? I'll go with option two. Stannis defeating the Boltons allows the story to move along much faster.

22 hours ago, Ser Gareth said:

Your number two doesn't make much sense either.  I don't see how Stannis losing ruins his entire arc?  He isn't a main character in the books and he served his purpose (helping weaken the realm, bring Mel and Jon together).

What are the main character traits that were set up for Stannis?

• He is supposedly a Chose One figure, the warrior of light who is meant to stop the Long Night... but we the readers know this claim is most likely false.
• He is unyielding and  just to a fault.
• He puts his duty to the realm above anything else.
• He would sacrifice a child for the sake of the kingdom.
• He is a highly skilled military commander, so much so that Tywin Lannister himself continued to take him seriously even in defeat.
• He would break before he bends.

A satisfying arc for him would include:

• Stannis ordering the burning of Shireen himself, to pay off on his ideas on duty, sacrifice and justice (in the sense that it is "just" to do to his own child what he would have done to Robert's... to do otherwise would make him a hypocrite).
• Stannis winning a sound tactical victory to justify the respect his enemies showed him in the past. The wildlings hardly count, they broke to the cavalry charge and that was that.
• Stannis actually facing the Others before his inevitable fall.

Now, you could argue that George doesn't need to end Stannis's story in a thematically satisfying way. In real life, things often happen randomly, and losing to the Boltons would be realistic. Fair enough. However, keep in mind that:

• All of George's characters had thematically satisfying arcs so far, even those who died unexpectedly.
• If George's plan for Stannis was to kill him in a random way, he could have done that at any time, from the Battle of Blackwater to the attack on Deepwood Motte. He could have frozen to death at the end of Dance.
• The Pink Letter announces Stannis's defeat... and yet the one preview chapter George chose to add at the end of the paperback is a Theon chapter that takes place before the Pink Letter was sent, in which Stannis warns one of his men that he might hear false rumors of his death. I'm not even asking why George would release that to the public if Stannis is dead... why would he have it in the book in the first place? There is no point in seeing the battle if the Pink Letter is true, we already know the result.
• The plot would actually move faster towards the endgame with a Stannis victory than a Bolton victory. Stannis is in charge in the North? Roll in the Others and we're in business! Ramsay's in charge? Well, the real story has to wait while Jon deals with this seconds to midnight side-villain he has no history with.

23 hours ago, Ser Gareth said:

As for the Others, the pacing of the Others has been screwed up since the very first book (and indeed the entire series pacing went awry, probably because of GRRM's gardening approach).  All of the above will happen before the Others breach the Wall.  Dany won't even arrive in Westeros until the very end of TWOW and TWOW has a lot of pages to fill....

You might have a problem when the main argument for your theory is that the books will be poorly written. It is 100% feasible for the Others to breach the Wall in only a few chapters, the current set-up is perfect for that. Setting up Ramsay as an intermediary villain for Jon would actually be a deliberate (and puzzling) choice to delay the Others with filler.

22 hours ago, Lady Fevre Dream said:

Why would anyone think a scenario involving direwolf/direwolves and Ramsay's hounds (from the books) MUST involve Jon Snow.  We have Nymeria the direwolf with an awesome wolf pack.  IIRC, in TWOW sample chapter, Arya dreams of Nymeria in a a northern type woodland (?) and even if not, that could be happening soon.  George could have always meant Nymeria's wolf pack, or that and maybe a Shaggydog added?  Or maybe, just Nymeria and her cousin wolfs anyway?  Just a thought. 

That's something I could see working. Ramsay escapes from the battle with his hounds, and we later see Nymeria's pack hunting them down via one of Arya's wolf dreams. I wouldn't say it's necessary to end him this way as opposed to Stannis executing him, but it's neat and satisfying and it wouldn't hijack the story.