Mel & Shireen

[sweetsunray]

28 minutes ago, divica said:

It makes sense because he needs more men, food and resources to take winterfell and he know for certain those will arrive after some months.

From what we know his army might not even be in condition to fight for winterfell if they open the gates. They have a daily death toll of 60 people… Can you guess how many people are sick, starving and exausted in stannis army? And they will have one big battle and then march straight into another?

And you propose her marches far longer through worse weather from the crofter's village to the Wall. It's do or die out there, and they need food reserves and shelter fast, close by.

You're complaining about the food issue and fatigue, but then believe they're gonna walk 650 miles all the way to the Wall, that is also low on rations, to wait for months until Braavos sends sellswords and food? They have more energy to infiltrate the castle and kill the Boltons in the night than they have to get to the Wall. Hell, the Boltons might even throw them a feast for having vanquished "Stannis". Returning to the Wall at this moment is pure suicide, and a wasted suicide.

Also expect Stannis' army to gorge on the Freys' baggage train: food for lots of heavy horse, which Stannis' doesn't have anymore, and so he doesn't need to ration food for horses and can just give it around to his army. Not to forget Manderly's food supply train that left Winterfell together with his army.

[sweetsunray]

23 minutes ago, divica said:

And if only the familly knew about the karstark betrayal why should it be diferent with the manderlys? Why have wyman out of action if it doesn t have any effect? 

I think that with the facts we are given it is very likely that the manderlys don t know about wyman's plan and will fight stannis in a mirror situation with the karstarks that will fight the freys because they don  t know about arnolf plans.

You are correct that the Manderly soldiers don't know, just like the Karstark soldiers don't know. But Wyman never intended to command the attack himself anyway. And he made it clear he never expected to return to White Habor alive. But you can bet on it that his army commander knows of it, because Manderly isn't even phased when he's wounded after being attacked. Manderly's soldiers will do as they're told. If they're told by their commander to attack the Frey vanguard from the rear, they will do so without question, and they will do it gladly.

[divica]

27 minutes ago, sweetsunray said:

Really? So, Bran or Bloodraven don't skinchange Jon's raven at times? How about the ravens in the tower with Stannis and Theon calling out for "tree" and "Theon"? Sounds like Bran and Bloodraven manage fine with skinchanging through the Wall.

 

42 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

Why?

Because jon lost the conection to ghost while he was north of the Wall. Varamyr had problems with eagle near the Wall (If I remember right). And it stops the others from making wights south of the Wall.

And while the ravens do behave strangely it isn t concrete proof they are being skinchanged… Why can t it be remnants inside the ravens that sometimes behave strangely?

53 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

No, that would be ridiculous IMO. To have a rustling of wind on leaves make a sound that seems like a word is one thing. To hold an entire and detailed conversation like that would be like something out of a bad Disney film. 

Why would anyone believe that someone taking pocession of theon is an act of the old gods?

Honestly, it sounds creepy and evil to me and if the clans know about skinchanging (and they probably do) then they would view it as something completly evil..

I think it is much more believing if it is just the tree speaking.

[kissdbyfire]

6 minutes ago, divica said:

It makes sense because he needs more men, food and resources to take winterfell and he know for certain those will arrive after some months.

No, it doesn’t make any sense whatsoever because he knows he can’t afford to wait for months for Massey to return. Also, he doesn’t know anything “for certain” at this point, much less that Massey will make the return trip safely, especially in Winter. 

6 minutes ago, divica said:

From what we know his army might not even be in condition to fight for winterfell if they open the gates. They have a daily death toll of 60 people… Can you guess how many people are sick, starving and exausted in stannis army?

And yet you think it makes sense for them to wander around in the north, stopping here or there, until they’re back at CB. Colour me confused. 

6 minutes ago, divica said:

And they will have one big battle and then march straight into another? Because I highly doubt he can desguise hundreds of northerns as freys and nobody takes notice for several days… The people in winterfell spent weeks together, they must know a lot of the frey men...Besides the fact that they should talk and look diferently...

No. They need to have a small contingent gain entry into WF stealthily, and help from inside once the main force is at the gates. No one will recognise anyone from that kind of distance. And this is just speculation, nothing more. For instance, if a small number of men get inside, they can start plotting w/ some already inside, like, say, the Umbers. 

6 minutes ago, divica said:

I didn t say that. I said that if the people in charge have only been told that they are supporting the boltons they won t turn on the freys and support stannis who his the enemy of the boltons and maderlys.

And I said that it’s unlikely for a man as smart as Manderly, who is perfectly capable of deceiving others if necessary, to not have talked to the man/men who he put in charge of his soldiers. 

6 minutes ago, divica said:

And if only the familly knew about the karstark betrayal why should it be diferent with the manderlys? Why have wyman out of action if it doesn t have any effect? 

He was put out of action for several reasons. First and foremost, he isn’t a fighter. He’s old and fat, he didn’t ride w/ Robb, why should he be expected to go fight Stannis now? So, it’s been established since ACoK that he isn’t a warrior or even a battle commander. W/ that clearly established, Martin uses the fight between Manderlys and Freys in Winterfell to reinforce a few things. Like, the Manderlys and the Freys hate each other. Also that the tension inside WF is only increasing; the place is a powder keg, and it will explode pretty soon. Theon notes that, for the first time, he sees fear in Roose’s eyes. 

6 minutes ago, divica said:

I think that with the facts we are given it is very likely that the manderlys don t know about wyman's plan and will fight stannis in a mirror situation with the karstarks that will fight the freys because they don  t know about arnolf plans.

Which “facts” are we given that support this claim?

6 minutes ago, divica said:

But the clanmen don t know that. Even if they help stannis defeat the freys they will still think that roose has the support of the other houses if they attack winterfell.

No, they won’t. No one likes the Boltons, and it’s not a new thing that started b/c of the RW. The RW only made it much, much worse. 

6 minutes ago, divica said:

They have no food, no siege weapons and their army is sick and exausted while wintefell is full of fresh people. They have zero chances of winning in a normal fight.

Winterfell is full of fresh people? Only if you mean fresh in the sense of cool because of the weather. Seriously, I think you should reread those chapters. 

6 minutes ago, divica said:

Because instead of saving farya and avenging the RW now they are fighting to put someone in charge of the north. If they don t like who they are fighting for why fight at all?

But if they are running around the north and waiting for months for food and men to arrive they aren’t fighting and they aren’t getting rid of the Boltons. Although to be fair I’m not sure what you’re saying here...

6 minutes ago, divica said:

That isn t what theon thinks. And theon knows ramsay. Besides, I have no idea why you think that the manderleys and freys won t join forces before atacking stannis. Even if they hate each other that is the bare minimum they must do...

Theon thinks Ramsay will come looking for him and fArya, and he is correct. But it is possible that Ramsay searches for them w/ some of his own men before going to the CV. 

And again, I really don’t see the Manderlys riding along w/ the Freys. Even if they don’t turn on Bolton, something I very much doubt, they will not ride together. If that’s what you’re saying. 

6 minutes ago, divica said:

Another important aspect to take into account is that it is unlikely that stannis can kill all freys. There are always soldiers that survive and ran away… And in this case the freys are all on horses. How can stannis stop the freys from running once they see the battle is lost?

We don’t know that they’re all mounted. And run away where, with the Manderlys coming right behind them? 

6 minutes ago, divica said:

Also, do you think ramsay will travel some days with a bunch of fake freys and not notice they are northerns? The accents must be diferent...

I never said Ramsay will ride for days, let alone that he would do that w/ a bunch of faux Freys. No idea where you got that from. 

[Jon The Dragon]

What happens if they take Theon to the tree and everyone hears it say Theon's name, would they think he was some sort of prophet of the Old Gods? 

No godless man can sit the Seastone Chair

 

[sweetsunray]

38 minutes ago, divica said:

Besides, I have no idea why you think that the manderleys and freys won t join forces before atacking stannis. Even if they hate each other that is the bare minimum they must do...

Reread the last Theon chapters: both Manderly and Frey army leave Winterfell from a different gate, because to send them out together is asking for trouble. They're already eager to kill each other within WF. So, the two forces march separate from the very beginning.

In fact, Roose himself bets on those forces thinning each other out, outside of Winterfell. There are too many men inside the castle, at each other's throat, and WF's food is just what baggage trains of armies took with them. There was no food stock anymore in WF when they arrived there (because Ramsay burned the castle). Roose Bolton hopes men will die fighting Stannis AND each other, and hopes it will take off some of the pressure inside WF.

So, no, your perceptions and assumptions are completely wrong and uninformed.

[kissdbyfire]

19 minutes ago, divica said:

 

Because jon lost the conection to ghost while he was north of the Wall. Varamyr had problems with eagle near the Wall (If I remember right). And it stops the others from making wights south of the Wall.

Very different things. As @sweetsunray said up thread, we do have clues that BR has a nice connection to Mormont’s raven. Also, Bran and BR are powerful greenseers, whereas Jon and Varamyr aren’t. 

 

Quote

And while the ravens do behave strangely it isn t concrete proof they are being skinchanged… Why can t it be remnants inside the ravens that sometimes behave strangely?

You claim the ravens in Stannis tower are just showing remnants of people or CotF who’d previously skinchanged into them. So, how do you explain that one of the raven calls Theon by name?  

 

Quote

Why would anyone believe that someone taking pocession of theon is an act of the old gods?

Because it would be? Because greenseeing is 100% an OG thing? 

Quote

 

Again, greenseeing, skinchanging, warging, heart trees = OG. 

Quote

 I think it is much more believing if it is just the tree speaking.

Well, we clearly disagree. 

But I will say, all these ideas about what is happening w/ Stannis at the moment tell me that, if Shireen is to burn early on in Winds, it won’t be him. Yes, I am sure he won’t go back to CB before he deals w/ the issues at hand, namely, the Boltons. 

[sweetsunray]

12 minutes ago, divica said:

Because jon lost the conection to ghost while he was north of the Wall. Varamyr had problems with eagle near the Wall (If I remember right). And it stops the others from making wights south of the Wall.

And while the ravens do behave strangely it isn t concrete proof they are being skinchanged… Why can t it be remnants inside the ravens that sometimes behave strangely? 

Jon lost the connection from the southern to northern direction. It's not said he lost the connection from north to south.

Varamyr didn't have any problems with the eagler near the Wall. Your remember it incorrectly. Mel burned the eagle.

As for the wights: while it may prevent the Others from making wights, it doesn't prevent wights that were brought into CB from doing what the Others want them to do. See: the assassination attempt on LC Jeor in aGoT, when Jon saves Jeor's life.

Because especially the ravens in Theon's chapter of tWoW are too specific and Theon thinks the same thought he did before the hearttree when Bran spoke his name: "They know my name!" George is making a connection between TWO ravens wanting Theon to be brought before the "TREE" and saying his "name", and Theon thinks the same thought. The ravens are being skinchanged by Bran and Bloodraven.

[Lyanna<3Rhaegar]

15 minutes ago, divica said:

Because jon lost the conection to ghost while he was north of the Wall.

I know this was speculated but I'm not sure it was positively the case.

16 minutes ago, divica said:

Varamyr had problems with eagle near the Wall (If I remember right).

Varamyr didn't have any connection issues with the Eagle. Mel burned him out of it. Nothing to do with the Wall

16 minutes ago, divica said:

And it stops the others from making wights south of the Wall.

We had wights south of the wall though. True they weren't made there but there really isn't anything to say they can't be made south of the wall. So far the others have not come south of the wall - probably because the walls magic won't let them through. But we just don't know exactly how the magic works & as far as we know it has no effect on skinchanging someone/thing. 

18 minutes ago, divica said:

And while the ravens do behave strangely it isn t concrete proof they are being skinchanged… Why can t it be remnants inside the ravens that sometimes behave strangely?

Sure it's not concrete proof but I don't see a more likely answer. 

Remnants of what? 

[kissdbyfire]

2 minutes ago, Lyanna<3Rhaegar said:

Remnants of what? 

People or CotF who’d skinchanged into the ravens previously. BR explains it to Bran when he’s teaching Bran to get into the ravens in the cave. Still doesn’t explain how or why some long dead CotF or FM skinchanger would be calling Theon by name. 

[divica]

3 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

No, it doesn’t make any sense whatsoever because he knows he can’t afford to wait for months for Massey to return. Also, he doesn’t know anything “for certain” at this point, much less that Massey will make the return trip safely, especially in Winter. 

Why can t he wait for months? He doesn t have a time limit to conquer winterfell.

4 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

And yet you think it makes sense for them to wander around in the north, stopping here or there, until they’re back at CB. Colour me confused

It is easier to march than fight. And deephood motte isn t that far.

6 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

No. They need to have a small contingent gain entry into WF stealthily, and help from inside once the main force is at the gates. No one will recognise anyone from that kind of distance. And this is just speculation, nothing more. For instance, if a small number of men get inside, they can start plotting w/ some already inside, like, say, the Umbers. 

This small contingente will enter how? I was under the idea you were saying he will disguise northerns as all the frey soldiers that survived the battle… 

While a small contingent is more belivable stannis can t also stay in the CF indefinetly. He doesn t have food there and his people are dying every day.

26 minutes ago, sweetsunray said:

And you propose her marches far longer through worse weather from the crofter's village to the Wall. It's do or die out there, and they need food reserves and shelter fast, close by.

You're complaining about the food issue and fatigue, but then believe they're gonna walk 650 miles all the way to the Wall, that is also low on rations, to wait for months until Braavos sends sellswords and food? They have more energy to infiltrate the castle and kill the Boltons in the night than they have to get to the Wall. Hell, the Boltons might even throw them a feast for having vanquished "Stannis". Returning to the Wall at this moment is pure suicide, and a wasted suicide.

Also expect Stannis' army to gorge on the Freys' baggage train: food for lots of heavy horse, which Stannis' doesn't have anymore, and so he doesn't need to ration food for horses and can just give it around to his army. Not to forget Manderly's food supply train that left Winterfell together with his army.

I propuse he goes to deepwood mote. It isn t very far and he doesn t have to fight...

Then stannis can use his loan to send ships from eastwatch to essos to get more food. That would be a fast trip.

In regards to the bagage trains. Given that the manderlys are 150 and the freys 1 or 2K that were preparing for a short fight their bagage trains will give stannis few days of food (if he mantains 5K soldiers).

17 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

And I said that it’s unlikely for a man as smart as Manderly, who is perfectly capable of deceiving others if necessary, to not have talked to the man/men who he put in charge of his soldiers.

arnolf didn t. He might be planing to do it outside of winterfell where it is less likely for soldiers to say things they shouldn t.

18 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

He was put out of action for several reasons. First and foremost, he isn’t a fighter. He’s old and fat, he didn’t ride w/ Robb, why should he be expected to go fight Stannis now? So, it’s been established since ACoK that he isn’t a warrior or even a battle commander. W/ that clearly established, Martin uses the fight between Manderlys and Freys in Winterfell to reinforce a few things. Like, the Manderlys and the Freys hate each other. Also that the tension inside WF is only increasing; the place is a powder keg, and it will explode pretty soon. Theon notes that, for the first time, he sees fear in Roose’s eyes. 

If I am not mistaken he sees fear in roose's eyes when wyman arrives with few soldiers...

And are you saying his plan was to stay in winterfell while his soldiers left hime there alone?

And how could he have taken precautions to have his men fighting for stannis? He was expecting a very diferent battle. Probably a siege. He only learned that his men would march out that day. He couldn t have prepared for the situation…

25 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

Which “facts” are we given that support this claim?

That wyman is probably out of action, he only learned he would march against stannis recently and soldiers don t know when their lords plan to betray someone.

27 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

No, they won’t. No one likes the Boltons, and it’s not a new thing that started b/c of the RW. The RW only made it much, much worse. 

Even if they hate the boltons as far as the clanmen know the other houses are helping the boltons. They have no way of knowing they will defenitly turn against the boltons the first chance they have.

29 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

But if they are running around the north and waiting for months for food and men to arrive they aren’t fighting and they aren’t getting rid of the Boltons. Although to be fair I’m not sure what you’re saying here...

I am saying they don t want to fight the entire north for stannis and whoever he choses as warden of the north if they don t like the new warden. Because at the moment they will need to fight a lot of other northern houses to retake winterfell. Besides all the other things I have been saying.

31 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

Theon thinks Ramsay will come looking for him and fArya, and he is correct. But it is possible that Ramsay searches for them w/ some of his own men before going to the CV. 

And again, I really don’t see the Manderlys riding along w/ the Freys. Even if they don’t turn on Bolton, something I very much doubt, they will not ride together. If that’s what you’re saying. 

I am saying that even if they ride separatly they will get together before the battle to discuss strategy. And by this time it is probable that ramsay is also there. At least theon thinks so and he is the most reliable source of info about what ramsay will do.

33 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

We don’t know that they’re all mounted. And run away where, with the Manderlys coming right behind them?

We do know they are all mounted. And they would be running away from the battle to winterfell. Some soldiers should be able to do it. There are always survivors in battles!

34 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

I never said Ramsay will ride for days, let alone that he would do that w/ a bunch of faux Freys. No idea where you got that from. 

then I don t know what you are saying.

[kissdbyfire]

14 minutes ago, divica said:

It is easier to march than fight. And deephood motte isn t that far.

 

14 minutes ago, divica said:

I propuse he goes to deepwood mote. It isn t very far and he doesn t have to fight...

I’m out of time just now, but really curious, so will ask... why do you keep saying DM is not that far from the CV? FYI, DM is 300 miles from Winterfell, and farther from the CV. 

[divica]

30 minutes ago, sweetsunray said:

Reread the last Theon chapters: both Manderly and Frey army leave Winterfell from a different gate, because to send them out together is asking for trouble. They're already eager to kill each other within WF. So, the two forces march separate from the very beginning.

In fact, Roose himself bets on those forces thinning each other out, outside of Winterfell. There are too many men inside the castle, at each other's throat, and WF's food is just what baggage trains of armies took with them. There was no food stock anymore in WF when they arrived there (because Ramsay burned the castle). Roose Bolton hopes men will die fighting Stannis AND each other, and hopes it will take off some of the pressure inside WF.

So, no, your perceptions and assumptions are completely wrong and uninformed.

They can march separatly and even have small fights. But once they are near CV they need to discuss some attack strategy. 

24 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

Because it would be? Because greenseeing is 100% an OG thing?

Since when is skinchanging a person greenseeing? And not skinchanging into another person is one of the laws of skinchanging. Given that these powers started with the cotf shouldn t these laws be related to the old gods?

So I think any person with knowledge about skinchanging and the old ways should be horrified to see another person being skinchanged. 

29 minutes ago, sweetsunray said:

Jon lost the connection from the southern to northern direction. It's not said he lost the connection from north to south.

Varamyr didn't have any problems with the eagler near the Wall. Your remember it incorrectly. Mel burned the eagle.

As for the wights: while it may prevent the Others from making wights, it doesn't prevent wights that were brought into CB from doing what the Others want them to do. See: the assassination attempt on LC Jeor in aGoT, when Jon saves Jeor's life.

Because especially the ravens in Theon's chapter of tWoW are too specific and Theon thinks the same thought he did before the hearttree when Bran spoke his name: "They know my name!" George is making a connection between TWO ravens wanting Theon to be brought before the "TREE" and saying his "name", and Theon thinks the same thought. The ravens are being skinchanged by Bran and Bloodraven.

So while the Wall doesn t stop a conection that already exists it should stop people north of the Wall from establishing a conection with a thing south of the Wall.

My point is even if they are skinchanging the ravens there must something that makes this possible. It might be the presence of remnants inside the ravens, it might be the presence or a weeirwood or some other thing… 

 

[divica]

5 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

 

I’m out of time just now, but really curious, so will ask... why do you keep saying DM is not that far from the CV? FYI, DM is 300 miles from Winterfell, and farther from the CV. 

Quote

Between Deepwood Motte and Winterfell lay one hundred leagues of forest. Three hundred miles as the raven flies. "Fifteen days," the knights told each other.

"Robert would have done it in ten," Asha heard Lord Fell boasting.

So something between 10 and 15 days of marching between wintefell and DM.

So between 7 to 12 days from CV to DM. 

7 days isn t that diferent from 3 to winterfell.

[sweetsunray]

11 minutes ago, divica said:

So something between 10 and 15 days of marching between wintefell and DM.

So between 7 to 12 days from CV to DM. 

7 days isn t that diferent from 3 to winterfell.

And how long did it really take them? I'll answer that for you. In 15 days they hadn't even covered half the distance, and it took them thirty three days to reach CV. Winterfell is 3 days away.

[kissdbyfire]

1 minute ago, sweetsunray said:

And how long did it really take them?

Exactly. And the weather is even worse now. 

[redriver]

1 minute ago, sweetsunray said:

And how long did it really take them?

59 days by my reckoning with 3 more to go

[sweetsunray]

5 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

Exactly. And the weather is even worse now. 

It is. It would take them over sixty days and kill 'em all to get to DM.

[sweetsunray]

2 minutes ago, redriver said:

59 days by my reckoning with 3 more to go

And the Frey baggage train would have supplies with them for 6 days when they left WF, using 3 by the time they reach the Crofter's village. So, if they defeat the Freys, they've got more than 3 days of food to support them, because they don't need to share the food with horses. And the victory would give them extra vigour.

[kissdbyfire]

8 minutes ago, divica said:

So something between 10 and 15 days of marching between wintefell and DM.

So between 7 to 12 days from CV to DM. 

7 days isn t that diferent from 3 to winterfell.

No. DM is closer to WF than to the CV. And it’s 300 mi from DM to Wintefell, ergo, more than 300 mi as the raven flies from DM to the CV.