The world after the pandemic

[Rippounet]

I could have posted this in the "humor" thread, but it sums up my thoughts on the whole thing perfectly so I'm being my usual rebel self and posting it here:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aWl7kQZHZE0

[Altherion]

CNN has a rather optimistic article about how cities may be permanently transformed by the pandemic. To be honest, I rather doubt it will go the way they think, at least in the US. If anything, the pandemic has made me glad that I still have access to a car -- it's rather ancient and technically belongs to my parents, but I've driven more in these two months than I had in the preceding year.

It will be interesting to see if cities become less dense as people who are able to leave do so. Quite a few people have temporarily left New York City (moving to second homes if they have one or with relatives), but all of their jobs are here so it's hard to see how they can stay away when the working from home phase ends.

[Winterfell is Burning]

On 5/10/2020 at 4:09 AM, Altherion said:

CNN has a rather optimistic article about how cities may be permanently transformed by the pandemic. To be honest, I rather doubt it will go the way they think, at least in the US. If anything, the pandemic has made me glad that I still have access to a car -- it's rather ancient and technically belongs to my parents, but I've driven more in these two months than I had in the preceding year.

It will be interesting to see if cities become less dense as people who are able to leave do so. Quite a few people have temporarily left New York City (moving to second homes if they have one or with relatives), but all of their jobs are here so it's hard to see how they can stay away when the working from home phase ends.

But the working from home phase won't really end for a lot of people.

Plus, the fact there's less demand means there will be a decrease in prices, although perhaps not as significative as one would like.

[S John]

Yea we have driven WAY less in the past couple of months than normal.  I’ve gotten gas only a couple of times and I wasn’t anywhere near E either time.  And if it hadn’t been for a few weekend jaunts to a couple state parks within a 90 minute or so radius from my house I would have used almost no gas at all.  

But I do tend to agree with Altherion about this not necessarily being the trigger for a major shift.  I do think that, mostly, people will return to old habits as soon as feasible.  With the likely exception of people working from home.  I think that will be a permanent change for a certain number of folks, but I don’t know if it will be for enough to be significant long term. Maybe.  I hope so, we will have to wait and see on that one.  

Having worked from home for a little over a year even before this crisis I do hope I’m not permanently home now, but a permanent MIX of home and office would actually be pretty great.  

I don’t think cities will become less dense.  I know this kind of thing makes it feel in the moment like we should all spread out, but I don’t think that is a very good idea.  As global population overall increases we need to become more dense and more efficient, rather than paving over green spaces for more development.  And I think for the most part people will resist the impulse to give up on city life.  I don’t think one pandemic, and one that really could have been a whole lot worse, is going to be enough to reverse a decades long trend in urbanization.

[Erik of Hazelfield]

I do think working from home will increase, but mainly because employers will realize it's an effective way to cut office rental costs.

[Winterfell is Burning]

On 5/13/2020 at 2:56 AM, Erik of Hazelfield said:

I do think working from home will increase, but mainly because employers will realize it's an effective way to cut office rental costs.

Also, the energy bill. Plus, eliminates expenses with workers transportation in countries where it's mandatory, and obviously decreases the risk of workplace accidents and deaths.

[DireWolfSpirit]

Just to pile on the w.a.h. being cheaper, I believe employers will use it to trim more labor costs eventually when they realize they can do with 30 what used to take 100 workers. It will succumb to the same efficiencies we've seen from automation everywhere else.

[Larry of the Lawn]

The pandemic is going to increase authoritarianism everywhere, get the governments in on the surveillance system where the private sector is already at, and increase inequality.  At least I've the next 15-20 years.  

In retrospect it's going to look a lot like the 911 response - a shit ton of money spent without tangible benefits to those who need it most.  Dems gifted Trump's corporate pals shit tons of money in the Covid relief bills and regular people are left with peanuts and the bill.  Message received loud and clear on the messaging bill.

[Rippounet]

1 hour ago, larrytheimp said:

The pandemic is going to increase authoritarianism everywhere, get the governments in on the surveillance system where the private sector is already at, and increase inequality.  At least I've the next 15-20 years.  

In retrospect it's going to look a lot like the 911 response - a shit ton of money spent without tangible benefits to those who need it most. 

That's what one might predict, but I think it's also safe to say there will be huge local variations.

Many European peoples will not swallow austerity after seeing trillions being conjured magically - again.

Of course, that might fuel the far-right just as the left... But that's kinda my point. Political polarization will increase - again.

It'll be a volatile situation. But I don't think it'll be all dark. This is neither 9/11 (with human scapegoats) nor 2008 (when many peoples were still naive about the economy). And although one shouldn't be too optimistic, many people have learned from both 9/11 and 2008.

In fact, though "populism" is a dirty catchall, its rise is not all bad. Populism was behind the rise of Donald Trump, but also behind the rise of Bernie Sanders. It was behind Brexit, but also pushed Corbyn a bit. It is behind the Le Pens, but also behind Mélenchon. Etc...

It's very hard to know what the pandemic will beget at this point. But... As cautious as I want to be, I think this crisis is more likely to push the left. I mean, how obvious is it that high-quality public healthcare is good?

[Fragile Bird]

After getting caught up in this thread (I didn’t realize how fast it had moved) especially the part about travel, I’d like to comment on developments in Canada.

Air Canada, a pretty well respected airline, has announced it will lay off half of it’s workforce, 20,000 people. Airline travel is down 95%, and AC expects that when things re-open travel will return to about 25% of what it used to be. It estimates it will take about 3 years to recover, but that recovery likely won’t be back to the levels of last year.

On the bright side of things, the environment should improve.

On the bleaker side of things, the coming recession/depression is going to be much, much worse than the 2008 financial crisis.

[DireWolfSpirit]

On 5/15/2020 at 2:54 PM, Rippounet said:

 

Many European peoples will not swallow austerity after seeing trillions being conjured magically - again.

I may have mentioned it earlier, but I'm finding it terrifying that we've spent these trillions on stimulus, yet are still faced with solving all of our grand challenges like saving Social Security, bailing out pensions, saving Medicare, affordable HC,  not to mention climate change.

The sum of those problems are alarming, I'm seriously wondering how royally screwed we've allowed our country (U.S.) to become?