Should Renly and the Tyrells have stayed neutral until after the Battle of Backwater

[dsjj251]

15 hours ago, Dreadscythe95 said:

Yeah this makes sense in paper but if you think about reality Leyton Hightower' s grandchildren are the heirs to Highgarden (since that marriage is far older), why would he try to hurt his own family (daughter and grandchildren) by marrying someone else from his House to The Baratheons and divide his own house in a war against his own blood, who are also The lords of his own region. Add to this the fact that The Tyrells are very close with The Redwynes as well who are also one of the strongest Houses in Westeros and they have a very connected economy with Oldtown (they are next to each other).

In reality(LOL) Robert is king, and im guessing Leyton would have never refused a marriage pact with House Baratheon, but that isnt really the point. 

The point is that strategically, it makes far more sense for Stannis to try and marry a Hightower than a Florent. Again, right now, the Hightowers are united behind the Tyrells. That is obviously something an alliance driven Robert wouldnt want, a divided Reach/House Hightower is a much better scenario for them. 

[Dreadscythe95]

6 hours ago, dsjj251 said:

In reality(LOL) Robert is king, and im guessing Leyton would have never refused a marriage pact with House Baratheon, but that isnt really the point. 

The point is that strategically, it makes far more sense for Stannis to try and marry a Hightower than a Florent. Again, right now, the Hightowers are united behind the Tyrells. That is obviously something an alliance driven Robert wouldnt want, a divided Reach/House Hightower is a much better scenario for them. 

Yeah I mean in book reality xd (death-level nerds)

What you say is true, the Baratheons would prefer the Reach to be divided to some extend (though not to such a big extend that it's unstable)

[Bernie Mac]

On 4/9/2020 at 11:34 PM, Arthur Peres said:

If that would be the case, Stannis should have married someone from the main line of the Florents and probably a girl that is pretty or at least average. Selyse description, and Stannis attitude towards her, make it seems unlikely that a many childs would come of that marriage.

Selyse is from the main branch. She was either the granddaughter or niece of Lord Florent at the time of her marriage.

Melessa, her cousin, was already married and had children before this betrothal, while it is more than possible that Rhea was already married/betrothed to Lord Hightower.

As for her looks

• we have no idea what she looked like 15 years ago. A decade of marriage to Stannis can not have been the most pleasant thing to endure on top of her sick daughter and presumably multiple failed attempts at having a son
• it is less about looks and more about pedigree. Her mother may be of a higher pedigree than Rhea
• We don't know much about her dead father, but he may well have been a pretty influential figure in the Reach before he died.

Also Stannis' attitude is not towards her, it is towards all women.

But there was no explaining such things to Stannis Baratheon. Her very womanhood seemed to offend him. Men from the green lands liked their women soft and sweet in silk, she knew, not clad in mail and leather with a throwing axe in each hand. But her short acquaintance with the king at Deepwood Motte convinced her that he would have been no more fond of her in a gown. Even with Galbart Glover's wife, the pious Lady Sybelle, he had been correct and courteous but plainly uncomfortable. This southron king seemed to be one of those men to whom women are another race, as strange and unfathomable as giants and grumkins and the children of the forest. The She-Bear made him grind his teeth as well.

 

Somehow I doubt noble women were queuing up for a lifetime with Mr Happy.

 

On 4/9/2020 at 6:18 AM, Arthur Peres said:

Agree

To quote @James Steller

Stannis really got screwed over with that marriage. Selyse Florent didn’t offer anything politically or financially to Stannis, and the perceived “threat” to House Tyrell was meaningless because the Florents would never be strong enough to take them on. It just seems like Robert and Alester Florent both got together over drinks and said “hey, we both have relatives that we hate, let’s pair them up!” 

There is literally no information from the books that suggest that Selyse was hated by her family, or that Stannis is by Robert (actually the opposite with regard to this).

Selyse is a daughter of a powerful and wealthy House in a region that was recently fighting against Robert and may have still had strong royalist tendencies. A Florent may have been the best Robert could have got at the time of Stannis' marriage. Also Robert might not have wanted to wait around for a better option to materialize given even 15 years later after the rebellion he is still worried about being overthrown.

 

On 4/9/2020 at 3:11 AM, dsjj251 said:

I know its not a popular opinion, but Selyse and Stannis may have actually married because they are like minded individuals. And if Robert cared about political marriages, then why is Renly still single at 22 ?????

 

He is 20 when we are first introduced to him and is 21 when he dies.

His companion was a man near twenty whose armor was steel plate of a deep forest-green. He was the handsomest man Sansa had ever set eyes upon; tall and powerfully made, with jet-black hair that fell to his shoulders and framed a clean-shaven face, and laughing green eyes to match his armor.

Edric was conceived at Stannis' marriage, he was born in 287 so more than likely would have been conceived in 286, the year Joffrey was born. Robert was more in need of heirs when the betrothal of Stannis and Selyse took place, less so after three children of his own one niece.

 

On 4/8/2020 at 8:53 PM, Dreadscythe95 said:

They were not that god for the brother of the King though. He could have a very powerful wife.

He did. Literally his most powerful supporters are the Florents. The Florents are probably a top 20 House in Westeros.

She may have been the best option that was available at the time.

On 4/7/2020 at 4:52 PM, Saminstark said:

Renly's claim is behind Stannis's. That's why he should not just wait, but declare for Stannis.

Claiming for Stannis would be, from Renly's POV, treason. At least with his own treason he has the support to win the Crown rather than support another Usurper with a fraction of the support.

On 4/7/2020 at 6:00 PM, Dreadscythe95 said:

No they are not amongst the strongest. They have one of the smallest armies in the Reach and they are far from the wealthiest as well.

I don't know if that is ever claimed.

Ser Cortnay Penrose ignored him, preferring to address Stannis. "This is a notable company. The great lords Estermont, Errol, and Varner. Ser Jon of the green-apple Fossoways and Ser Bryan of the red. Lord Caron and Ser Guyard of King Renly's Rainbow Guard . . . and the puissant Lord Alester Florent of Brightwater, to be sure.

Puissant meaning having great power or influence. To Penrose Florent is the Lord that sticks out the most from Stannis' cabal.

"It is customary to grant a king the style Your Grace," announced Lord Florent. A red gold fox poked its shining snout out from his breastplate through a circle of lapis lazuli flowers. Very tall, very courtly, and very rich, the Lord of Brightwater Keep had been the first of Renly's bannermen to declare for Stannis"

And not just rich, but very rich.

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Tyrells, Hightowers, Redwynes, Tarlys, Red and Green Fossoways, Hewetts, Oakhearts and Rowans are all bigger Houses that either control more wealth or bigger armies or both.

Tyrells and Hightowers, certainly. Possibly Redwyne, though their strength is likely to be at sea rather than a larger army.

I see nothing to suggest that Houses Fossoway or Hewett are on the same level. Tarly, Rowan and Oakheart may be on a similar tier, we simply don't know.

 

On 4/8/2020 at 12:18 PM, dsjj251 said:

This doesnt really make sense. Selyse is like 9th in line to Brightwater Keep. And the claim the Florents have to Highgarden is 300 years removed.

She could be 2nd or 20th, it is immaterial to the point that was being made. That a Baratheon supported coup of Higharden by the Florents, with their dencent claim, is enough of a weapon to keep the Tyrells in line.

 

On 4/7/2020 at 9:25 AM, dsjj251 said:

There is a big difference between a marriage of 2 powerful families that work in universe, and major character deaths outside of their expected storylines. 

eh? Finding magical pets is a plot device, Ned finding out the truth was a plot device.

It is all mostly plot device, none of this is happening by accident.

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What are you talking about ? She didnt give away his crown.  they are negotiating. 

What are you talking about? Cat is quite clear that she was not about to give away her son's power to another King.

It stops being a negotiation when one party wants to leave and the other party refuses.

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Renly is smart enough to know Tywin is his enemy and not Robb and would  at worst, take Kings Landing and then fight Robb. 

He is smart enough to know they potentially both are. He's wearing a crown, most Kings don't tend to remove them and it was no clear thing that Renly would have the power to beat Robb if/after he beat the Lannisters.

It is made clear that he may not even have the strength to beat his brother after he takes down the Lannisters.

"I say that Stannis is a danger to you," Lord Randyll Tarly declared. "Leave him unblooded and he will only grow stronger, while your own power is diminished by battle. The Lannisters will not be beaten in a day. By the time you are done with them, Lord Stannis may be as strong as you . . . or stronger."

Others chorused their agreement. The king looked pleased. "We shall fight, then."

This same train of thought applies equally to Robb (more so infact given Robb's got more support than Stannis.

[dsjj251]

2 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

He is 20 when we are first introduced to him and is 21 when he dies.

His companion was a man near twenty whose armor was steel plate of a deep forest-green. He was the handsomest man Sansa had ever set eyes upon; tall and powerfully made, with jet-black hair that fell to his shoulders and framed a clean-shaven face, and laughing green eyes to match his armor.

 

You are nitpicking over 1 year and it doesnt even have anything to do with the context of my post , but if you want to do that fine. The books are written in the perspective of the characters. Sansa doesnt know Renly's exact age. near 20 is an estimate. 

Regardless, Renly was born in 277 AC, died in 299 AC.

 

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He did. Literally his most powerful supporters are the Florents. The Florents are probably a top 20 House in Westeros.

She may have been the best option that was available at the time.

The Florents may be top 30 ish, not top 20. The books name atleast 20 who have more than 2,000 men. 

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She could be 2nd or 20th, it is immaterial to the point that was being made. That a Baratheon supported coup of Higharden by the Florents, with their dencent claim, is enough of a weapon to keep the Tyrells in line.

You think Stannis would support placing his wife in charge of the Reach over her male and female cousins ???? Im guessing not, so it has everything to do with it. Never mind the fact that there are better claimants to the Reach and that my point was House Hightower is the key.

 

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eh? Finding magical pets is a plot device, Ned finding out the truth was a plot device.

It is all mostly plot device, none of this is happening by accident.

Yes, but the type of plot device matters. 

 

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What are you talking about? Cat is quite clear that she was not about to give away her son's power to another King.

It stops being a negotiation when one party wants to leave and the other party refuses.

Renly wasnt leaving and neither was Cat. Stannis was invading and that ended the conversation, but the negotiations would have continued otherwise. 

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He is smart enough to know they potentially both are. He's wearing a crown, most Kings don't tend to remove them and it was no clear thing that Renly would have the power to beat Robb if/after he beat the Lannisters.

It is made clear that he may not even have the strength to beat his brother after he takes down the Lannisters.

"I say that Stannis is a danger to you," Lord Randyll Tarly declared. "Leave him unblooded and he will only grow stronger, while your own power is diminished by battle. The Lannisters will not be beaten in a day. By the time you are done with them, Lord Stannis may be as strong as you . . . or stronger."

Others chorused their agreement. The king looked pleased. "We shall fight, then."

This same train of thought applies equally to Robb (more so infact given Robb's got more support than Stannis.

Robb is fighting the Lannisters, Stannis chose to besiege Storm's End.  The train of thought is completely different as Stannis cares about who calls themselves king and Robb doesnt. 

[Bernie Mac]

1 minute ago, dsjj251 said:

You are nitpicking over 1 year

2 years. He was 20. He's 21 after Robert is dead.

He'd be a few years youger than both brother before they were married.

1 minute ago, dsjj251 said:

 

and it doesnt even have anything to do with the context of my post ,

Clarity always has its own purpose, especially when your point was his age and he was 2 years younger than you were suggesting. It also needs to be added because there seems to be a little homophobia from some corners in the fandom about Renly and they tend to exaggerate the age difference between him and Renly so they can accuse him of being a paedophile.

20 is not some weird age, even in Westeros, to still be single. That should also be noted.

1 minute ago, dsjj251 said:

 

but if you want to do that fine. The books are written in the perspective of the characters. Sansa doesnt know Renly's exact age. near 20 is an estimate. 

But Cressen and Brienne do, they both call him 21 and both knew him fairly well. Around a year had passed since we are introduced to him.

I'm happy to quibble with the details.

He is not Renly, Brienne realized. Renly is dead. Renly died in my arms, a man of one-and-twenty.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The bold little boy with wild black hair and laughing eyes was a man grown now, one-and-twenty, and still he played his games. Look at me, I'm a king, Cressen thought sadly. Oh, Renly, Renly, dear sweet child, do you know what you are doing?

1 minute ago, dsjj251 said:

Regardless, Renly was born in 277 AC, died in 299 AC.

Yes, at the age of 21, and more than likely 20 when we are introduced him given the events that take place in that span.

1 minute ago, dsjj251 said:

 

The Florents may be top 30 ish, not top 20.

No, they could well be top 20. They are wealthy and have a significant cavalry. What they may lack in overall troops they seem to make up for it with quality.

1 minute ago, dsjj251 said:

The books name atleast 20 who have more than 2,000 men. 

No you actually can't. You could guess, but you'd only be guessing. We don't have the exact numbers of 20 Houses.

 

Secondly, it is not all about men. The Karstarks seem to have under 400 cavalry, the Florents at least 1k. I'd likely go with Florent's '2k' than I would the Karstark 3k simply due to the superior quality troops will beat a slightly larger, inferior army more often than not

Secondly, Stannis has been known to be wrong and it seems he was either incorrect about the Florents strength or playing down their numbers.

Stannis only gained the Florent Cavalry that was with Renly's 20k.

Ser Axell proposed to use Salladhor Saan's fleet and the men who had escaped the Blackwater—Stannis still had some fifteen hundred on Dragonstone, more than half of them Florents

Now this is after the battle of Dragonstone where Stannis' 21k army got whittled down to 1,500. So logically it stands to reason that they had at least 1k Cavarly, which is equal to the Freys, the most powerful House in the Riverlands.

On top of that Brightwater Keep seems pretty well defended

Mace is taking half the Tyrell strength to Storm's End, and the other half will be going back to the Reach with Ser Garlan to make good his claim on Brightwater.

Half the Tyrell strength to win it back seems overkill for less than a 1,000 men

1 minute ago, dsjj251 said:

You think Stannis would support placing his wife in charge of the Reach over her male and female cousins ????

Is there significance in four question marks?

Not only do I not understand the punctuation, but also the question. A bit more elaboration please.

1 minute ago, dsjj251 said:

Never mind the fact that there are better claimants to the Reach and that my point was House Hightower is the key.

We have no idea if Hightower was willing to do so at the time of the betrothal. We don't know their state of mind.

Balon seemed to think a few years later that Robert did not have the support of the Kingdom when he gambled on his rebellion. This would possibly indicate that not everything was rosy between the former royalists and Robert.

It is also possible that Melora was seen as too old and Lynesse too young to be pumping out heirs, which House Baratheon was lacking at that point in time.

It is also possible that the fate of Elia put some Houses off sending their daughters to marry into the new Royal family and be their glorified hostages. 

It is also possible that Mace's marriage to a Hightower daughter made this seem like a pointless move from Robert and Jon's angle. 

It is also possible that Stannis' abrasive personality put the daughters of House Hightower off. Leyton seems to be more willing to listen to this children than others.

It could also be that Selyse is a Hightower herself on her mother's side and Stannis' marriage to her was killing two birds with one stone.

It could be that the superstitious Leyton read a prophecy that suggested the reign of House Baratheon was going to be shortlived or that that was his general opinion of this new dynasty.

Or it could be for any number of reasonable reasons that people overlook all so they can claim 'this does not make sense,'. I don't have the imagination or event the understanding of GRRM's world that he does. It was pretty easy for me to come up with plausible reasons, far easier for him.

1 minute ago, dsjj251 said:

Yes, but the type of plot device matters. 

It only seems to matter to people who want to complain about how unfair it is to the characters they are biased for. That is why the antagonists victories of the series are overwhelmingly labelled as plot devices and the antagonists rarely mentioned.

The only time plot devices should matter is when they bend the reality of the fictional world the author has created. For the most part GRRM has escaped this.

1 minute ago, dsjj251 said:

 

Renly wasnt leaving and neither was Cat.

Cat wanted to leave, Renly said no. Let me refresh your memory.

I have failed Robb as I failed Ned, Catelyn thought. "My lord," she announced. "If you are set on battle, my purpose here is done. I ask your leave to return to Riverrun."

"You do not have it." Renly seated himself on a camp chair.

 

It stops being a negotiation when one party is held against their will.

1 minute ago, dsjj251 said:

 

Stannis was invading and that ended the conversation, but the negotiations would have continued otherwise.

Does not seem that way. What was Cat going to concede, her son's autonomy?

1 minute ago, dsjj251 said:

Robb is fighting the Lannisters, Stannis chose to besiege Storm's End.  The train of thought is completely different as Stannis cares about who calls themselves king and Robb doesnt. 

Where is that mentioned? Why would he have ever worn the Crown if he did not care. And it sure as shit seemed to matter to him when he wanted to put his uncle in his place.

"Good men died to defend those fords, Uncle." Edmure sounded outraged. "What, is no one to win victories but the Young Wolf? Did I steal some glory meant for you, Robb?"

"Your Grace," Robb corrected, icy. "You took me for your king, Uncle. Or have you forgotten that as well?"

[dsjj251]

4 minutes ago, Bernie Mac said:

2 years. He was 20. He's 21 after Robert is dead.

He'd be a few years youger than both brother before they were married.

Its a year since he isnt married when Sansa makes that comment. 

4 minutes ago, Bernie Mac said:

Clarity always has its own purpose, especially when your point was his age and he was 2 years younger than you were suggesting.

 

I

2 year isnt enough to negate my point, hence why it didnt matter. Again, this is a point that matters to no one but you, and its weird you picked it to argue about. we are debating a couple of months here or there and it doesnt matter to my point. 

If I was off by 5 or 10 years, then you would have something, but we are at best debating 12 months. 

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It also needs to be added because there seems to be a little homophobia from some corners in the fandom about Renly and they tend to exaggerate the age difference between him and Renly so they can accuse him of being a paedophile.

20 is not some weird age, even in Westeros, to still be single. That should also be noted.

I never made such a homophobic claim.  So that seems odd to direct at me. 

21/22 is a weird age to be single in the context of marriage alliances. Remember, context matters. 

4 minutes ago, Bernie Mac said:

No, they could well be top 20. They are wealthy and have a significant cavalry. What they may lack in overall troops they seem to make up for it with quality.

No you actually can't. You could guess, but you'd only be guessing. We don't have the exact numbers of 20 Houses.

 

My post was about military strength, not wealth. 

We actually have 10+ threads here on military strength. 

All 9 regional families can muster more than 2,000 troops.  The books(including F &B and Dunk) give us specific numbers for Houses; Royce, Waynwood,  Frey, Hightower, Rowan, Oakheart, Manderly, Blackwood, Bolton, Baratheon of Dragonstone, Dustin.

Thats 20 right there, and their are others and simplistic guesses we can make. 

 

4 minutes ago, Bernie Mac said:

Secondly, it is not all about men. The Karstarks seem to have under 400 cavalry, the Florents at least 1k. I'd likely go with Florent's '2k' than I would the Karstark 3k simply due to the superior quality troops will beat a slightly larger, inferior army more often than not

Secondly, Stannis has been known to be wrong and it seems he was either incorrect about the Florents strength or playing down their numbers.

Stannis only gained the Florent Cavalry that was with Renly's 20k.

Ser Axell proposed to use Salladhor Saan's fleet and the men who had escaped the Blackwater—Stannis still had some fifteen hundred on Dragonstone, more than half of them Florents

Now this is after the battle of Dragonstone where Stannis' 21k army got whittled down to 1,500. So logically it stands to reason that they had at least 1k Cavarly, which is equal to the Freys, the most powerful House in the Riverlands.

On top of that Brightwater Keep seems pretty well defended

Mace is taking half the Tyrell strength to Storm's End, and the other half will be going back to the Reach with Ser Garlan to make good his claim on Brightwater.

Half the Tyrell strength to win it back seems overkill for less than a 1,000 men

There is a lot of speculation there. as for Brightwater Keep, who knows, there Lord isnt even there. 

4 minutes ago, Bernie Mac said:

Is there significance in four question marks?

Not only do I not understand the punctuation, but also the question. A bit more elaboration please.

You said Selyse's order in the Florent line doesnt matter. Im arguing that in the mind of Stannis, it would. 

4 minutes ago, Bernie Mac said:

We have no idea if Hightower was willing to do so at the time of the betrothal. We don't know their state of mind.

Balon seemed to think a few years later that Robert did not have the support of the Kingdom when he gambled on his rebellion. This would possibly indicate that not everything was rosy between the former royalists and Robert.

It is also possible that Melora was seen as too old and Lynesse too young to be pumping out heirs, which House Baratheon was lacking at that point in time.

It is also possible that the fate of Elia put some Houses off sending their daughters to marry into the new Royal family and be their glorified hostages. 

It is also possible that Mace's marriage to a Hightower daughter made this seem like a pointless move from Robert and Jon's angle. 

It is also possible that Stannis' abrasive personality put the daughters of House Hightower off. Leyton seems to be more willing to listen to this children than others.

It could also be that Selyse is a Hightower herself on her mother's side and Stannis' marriage to her was killing two birds with one stone.

It could be that the superstitious Leyton read a prophecy that suggested the reign of House Baratheon was going to be shortlived or that that was his general opinion of this new dynasty.

Or it could be for any number of reasonable reasons that people overlook all so they can claim 'this does not make sense,'. I don't have the imagination or event the understanding of GRRM's world that he does. It was pretty easy for me to come up with plausible reasons, far easier for him.

You are trying to pass off your speculation as fact. 

4 minutes ago, Bernie Mac said:

It only seems to matter to people who want to complain about how unfair it is to the characters they are biased for. That is why the antagonists victories of the series are overwhelmingly labelled as plot devices and the antagonists rarely mentioned.

The only time plot devices should matter is when they bend the reality of the fictional world the author has created. For the most part GRRM has escaped this.

Renly has an army of 100,0000 and dies by way of magic shadow baby, but ok, lets pretend im just defending the character I like, LOL. 

 

4 minutes ago, Bernie Mac said:

Cat wanted to leave, Renly said no. Let me refresh your memory.

I have failed Robb as I failed Ned, Catelyn thought. "My lord," she announced. "If you are set on battle, my purpose here is done. I ask your leave to return to Riverrun."

"You do not have it." Renly seated himself on a camp chair.

 

It stops being a negotiation when one party is held against their will.

Does not seem that way. What was Cat going to concede, her son's autonomy?

You are spirally. The original discussion was on whether or not an alliance could exist between the Kingdom of the North and the Trident, and the Kingdom of the South.

Renly has never once ruled that out, saying he would support Robb in naming himself king and ruling over new lands in the Riverlands. Renly knows he would only be Robbs Lord in name only, its basically a mutual defense pact with Renly claiming supreme allied commander. 

4 minutes ago, Bernie Mac said:

Where is that mentioned? Why would he have ever worn the Crown if he did not care. And it sure as shit seemed to matter to him when he wanted to put his uncle in his place.

"Good men died to defend those fords, Uncle." Edmure sounded outraged. "What, is no one to win victories but the Young Wolf? Did I steal some glory meant for you, Robb?"

"Your Grace," Robb corrected, icy. "You took me for your king, Uncle. Or have you forgotten that as well?"

Robb doesnt care who sits on the Iron Throne is what im talking about.