The Purple Wedding, the pie or the wine?

[M.Alhazred]

It was the wine. Since strangler dissolves in liquid. 

[Colonel Green]

4 hours ago, Hugorfonics said:

Littlefinger and Lord Petyr looked so very much alike. She would have fled them both, perhaps, but there was nowhere for her to go. Winterfell was burned and desolate, Bran and Rickon dead and cold. Robb had been betrayed and murdered at the Twins, along with their lady mother. Tyrion had been put to death for killing Joffrey, and if she ever returned to King's Landing the queen would have her head as well.

That's a weird phrasing, but that seems like it's meant to indicate that they haven't heard he escaped yet, because in subsequent chapters Littlefinger and Sansa openly discuss that Tyrion is still alive and has escaped and there's no indication he had previously said otherwise.

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It says began to fade, not fade.

It says the sound begins to fade, and then goes on to describe how eventually they completely lose King's Landing and are alone in the fog with no signs of an outer world.  They aren't hearing the bells anymore.  And then there's lots of rowing to go.

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And you conveniently left out the middle of the text when they say "not far" and "sound carries over water"

I didn't conveniently leave it out, neither of those things indicate that the city is nearby, and it's indicated that they get to a point where they can no longer hear the city well before getting to Littlefinger's ship.

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Which is....?

Because Olenna runs her own little operation and he doesn't need to be involved.

[Walda]

The lemon cream on the pie, which was put in front of Sansa (a fact that neither her drunk exfiance or her drunk husband noticed.) 

I notice that Tywin wore black gloves and was not overly bothered by Joffrey's death. I am pretty sure Shae was a Baelish plant, and notice how she repeatedly attempted to get Tyrion to let her into the feast. She did Sansa's hair, so it was in her power to remove the "black amathyst" from Sansa's hair net. As they are quartered above the kitchen keep, it is possible (but not likely) that Shae wanted to off Sansa and be there to watch her choke. Tywin might want to get rid of Sansa once he had sent fArya off to Winterfell, when it was clear she was not going to bear a Lannister heir for Winterfell, and she had it in her power to recognise Jayne Poole and confirm the Lannisters never had found Arya, so why not get rid of her, making it look like a Dornish plot of the Red Viper (speaking of which - there was that Dornish stabbing Tyrion observed, which isn't totally clear to me). 

Both Margarey and Olenna, as well as Lord Tywin, seem to be making cautious attempts to keep Joffrey away from Sansa's lemon pie. 

I am not really sure about who was really behind the poison, or why they wanted to do it then, or even who they wanted to do it to. Maybe Joffrey was attempting to alert Tyrion to something or someone behind him. Maybe the dog sniffing at Joffrey is significant. There is an outside chance the king just choked.

One thing I am sure about - Petyr Baelish lies. 

Tyrion knew that. Petyr successfully stuck him with "the Imp's dagger", even though Ned realised as soon as he heard it that it made no sense for Tyrion to arm a footpad with his own blade to randomly cut Bran's throat. Even Caitlyn had trouble reconciling that with what she knew of the Imp's cunning, and in the end, she couldn't really believe Tyrion would bet against his brother, and for Tyrell. 

But  Petyr had so glibly assured Caitlyn he had lost to Tyrion on the tourney for Joffrey's name day, and Caitlyn was pretty credulous, especially when it was the boy she knew adored her vs the loathsome Lannisters. Sansa does not strike me as more astute than her mother.

Tyrion was much quicker to remember that Robert had won the dagger (and no doubt Cersei's emerald pendant, and Jaime's golden dragons too). Coincidentally, at the time, Baelish had hatched a plot with Renly to marry Robert to Margarey, a plot that meant Renly met the gorgeous young Loras, a Tyrell alliance Baelish later profitably brings back to the Lannisters after Renly dies.  Baelish also made a profit from poor Ned Stark, taking his money to buy Janos Slynt, the goldshirts that overpowered him, and the ones that pushed Ned down in front of Ilyn Payne before Cersei and Varys had a chance to spare him and send him to the wall.

Petyr backs the Tyrell boy against Tywin's henchmen every time. Petyr never misses an opportunity to slander the Imp, and the only thing he likes better is setting one Lannister against another while taking money from both (eg. When putting the Kettleblack 'hidden daggers' in place, both Tyrion and Cersei pay him for them.)

When Petyr has Slynt kill Barra, and sends 'the Queens' goldcloaks after Gendry, Tyrion is under the impression this, like Ned's death, is all Cersei's fault. Interesting how, in this instance, as when Petyr tells Caitlyn the dagger is his, Varys guardedly observes the lie, knows it is a lie, but smoothly lets Petyr's dupe accept it at face value.

Petyr claims Dontas was completely his footpad - I don't think he absolutely was. The way he put on his Hollard mail, when he came to take Sansa to the boat, and also the way he had been sent into tourney against the ferocious killer and absolutely superior tourney knight, Lothar Brune, on the tourney for Joffrey's thirteenth name day, just when the boy king is ready for a fight to the death ... Hollard might be too stupid to know that Petyr Baelish owned Lothar and rigged Tourneys with the horses he sold (at the tourney of the hand, I believe Sansa's red rose was a signal, and Ser Hugh of the Vale was someone Petyr wanted out of the way. Also, I am guessing he helped both Ser Gregor and Ser Loras souce their horses.)

Anyway, I am sure that what Petyr led Sansa to believe, that it was Olenna with the amethyst in the wine, and that it had been his idea all along to rescue Sansa and Dontas was just his tool, are opportunistic lies.

I am guessing Baelish wanted Sansa to be wearing the hairnet with the incriminating missing amethyst, that he was aware there was a poisoning plot afoot, one that would use the strangler, one that would blame Sansa. He also had a rigged tilt at the ready - Penny or her brother was going up against Tyrion. 

I strongly suspect that his intention had been for Sansa to be blamed for Tyrion's death, and that Dontas had been a gift, coming to him looking for a ship for Sansa. He missed his chance to kill Tyrion but managed to tell Sansa that Tyrion had 'given' Tysha to his fathers guardsmen when 'he had grown tired' of her.

Just as when Petyr told her father that Lord Tywin had Robert's bastard twins at Casterly Rock 'sold to a passing slaver', it is a lie, based on a truth, but tailored to raise the listeners hackles and stoke their hatred of Lannisters. Sansa was the Imp's wife, Ned hated slavers, there is nothing the Tully girls wont do for their children.

That, and it makes no sense. It makes no sense that Cersei killed Barra, that Tywin sold his servant's children to 'a passing' slaver, that Tyrion bet against his brother, that Petyr would choose Dontos as his intermediary to Sansa, that Olenna would want to kill Joffrey in such a public way before his marriage with Margarey was consumated. 

It serves Petyr to have the heir to Winterfell in his back pocket, although I doubt he really plans to marry Alayne off to Harrold Hardyng - it seems to me that Harry the heir is another luckless rigged tourney contestant who may or may not live to rue his aunts dealings with the Lord Protector. What Sansa knows is what he wants her to know. Arya would see straight away that it makes no sense, but logic is not Sansa's strong point. 

Lemons (as in the lemon cream on the pie) are Sansa's favourite, and SweetRobin's too. They have to be sourced overseas (none left in the Vale), which is where Petyr Baelish comes in. 

Lemons are also of Dorne, and the Martels, although not as much as Orange and oranges are.

Baelish is also associated with the Tyrells and the Redwynes by his trading in wines, especially Arbor Gold (incidentally, I suspect it was Petyr Baelish that supplied the wineseller Dany met at the Western markets at Vaes Dothrak).

Varys seems to be secretly pro-Dorne, while Baelish is pro-Tyrell, sort of. I am not sure if that means they are on opposite sides. Mace blusters about the Dornish like they are his mortal enemies when he is with the Lannisters, but Oberyn tells Tyrion that he and Wyllis are horse-trading pen-pals. And horse trading is something Petyr Baelish is into, too.

Tl;dr Littlefinger is a liar, you know his version is not the truth 

[Kaelthas]

18 hours ago, Frey family reunion said:

The Tyrells were planning on marrying Sansa to Willas up until the Lannisters married Sansa to Tyrion.  Olenna was still talking to Sansa about bringing her to Highgarden right up until the time of the wedding feast.  My guess is, the plan was that it would appear that Tyrion choked on the pie.  And everyone surrounding Tyrion were Tyrells.  They would be the first to come to his "aid".  Doubtful that too many questions would be asked because Tyrion isn't even terribly popular among his own family (save Jaime).  

The problem was Joffrey grabbed the pie meant for Tyrion, and all hell broke loose, especially when Cersei openly accused Tyrion of poisoning Joffrey.

But probably the death knell for the wine theory, is that the dullard Boros Blount believes it had to be the wine:

 

Your post does not seem to address my arguments in the text that you quote.

[Frey family reunion]

53 minutes ago, Kaelthas said:

Your post does not seem to address my arguments in the text that you quote.

Fair enough, I'll try to address your argument more specifically:

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It doesn't make that much sense for the Tyrells to kill Tyrion. The critical part in denying The Lannisters the North is abducting (or killing) Sansa.

It makes all the sense in the world to kill Tyrion, assuming that they still wish to go forward with their plan to wed Sansa to Willas.  The Tyrell's motivation isn't simply to deny the Lannisters the North, their motivation is to establish their own hold over the North.  It's a power play.

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If Tyrion gets killed, the Lannisters can just marry her to someone else- someone who will actually consume the marriage, with a good chance that Sansa will get moved to Casterly Rock, and out of the Tyrells range forever.

Yes, they can, assuming that Sansa is still around King's Landing to be married.  But all indications are that the Tyrells were still planning on bringing Sansa to Highgarden, even after her marriage to Tyrion.  

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“The little old woman reached up and fussed at the loose strands, tucking them back into place and straightening Sansa’s hair net. “I was very sorry to hear about your losses,” she said as she tugged and fiddled. “Your brother was a terrible traitor, I know, but if we start killing men at weddings they’ll be even more frightened of marriage than they are presently. There, that’s better.” Lady Olenna smiled. “I am pleased to say I shall be leaving for Highgarden the day after next. I have had quite enough of this smelly city, thank you. Perhaps you would like to accompany me for a little visit, whilst the men are off having their war? I shall miss my Margaery so dreadfully, and all her lovely ladies. Your company would be such sweet solace.”

So right after Olenna "fixes" Sansa's hair net, she extends an invitation for Sansa to come with her to Highgarden.  Is Sansa's company, truly Olenna's motivation, or does she still plan on marrying Sansa to Willas, after the hairnet takes care of Sansa's current husband?  To me that's the original plan, before things go awry at the wedding.  Tyrion appears to choke to death on his food, and before the Lannisters can arrange another marriage for Sansa, the Tyrells    get Sansa to Highgarden to wed Willas.

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And even if the Tyrells had secured Sansa, killing Tyrion wouldn't have been much of a Priority. First, because there are rumors about the marriage not having been consummated, and thus null and void. Second, because there would be no chance for the Tyrells to marry Sansa in the the in the near-to mid future without pissing of the Lannisters big time.

I don't think what you claim is in fact true.  Rumors about Tyrion's marriage does not make the marriage null and void.  Even if it was a known fact that the marriage was not consummated it does not make the marriage null and void. It just makes it easier to annul the marriage, assuming you can find a septon to agree to annul it.  But this is obviously not an available solution, even after Sansa is spirited away to the Eyrie, it is still acknowledged that Sansa will not be free to marry until the Imp is dead:

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“I see no reason why you should not be wed as soon as we know that your Lannister husband is dead. A secret wedding, to be sure.”

So it doesn't make too much sense to "free" Sansa using the hairnet, if Tyrion is left alive after you spirit her away.  If indeed the hair net's purpose was to free Sansa, than the purpose of the hair net wasn't merely to provide a distraction to get Sansa on Littlefinger's boat, it was also to rid her of her husband (whoever her husband would have been).  If the Tyrells join in on the plot, their motivation would be the same.  Get Sansa to Highgarden but first, relieve her of her husband.

So the two people that probably have to be in on the plot both have independent motives for wanting Tyrion dead.  Littlefinger, to marry her to a Vale Lord under his control, and Olenna to marry her to Willas.  Littlefinger leaving King's Landing with Sansa on board but Tyrion still alive could not have been part of his plan.

As for pissing off the Lannisters, you have to remember the Lannisters need the Tyrells probably more than the Tyrells need the Lannisters.  If Tyrion dies at the wedding, as an apparent victim of choking on his own food, and Sansa turns up in Highgarden marrying Willas, it's not going to please the Lannisters, just like the Tyrells were probably miffed when the Lannisters quickly married Sansa off to Tyrion.  But it's not going to cause open warfare between the two, they need each other too much.  

 

[Frey family reunion]

On 4/30/2020 at 7:07 PM, Colonel Green said:

GRRM has Sansa figure out that Loras being in the Kingsguard is a ticking time bomb, and be confused as to why Margaery doesn't seem to see this, and then dismisses her insight on the basis that Margaery and co. must have figured things out better than her.

Which we then learn is true, because as Littlefinger (wholly unaware of Sansa's prior deductions) spells out the exact same observation.

This is meant to illustrate to the audience that Sansa can see things the way that experienced operators like Littlefinger and Olenna Tyrell do.

While I agree with this sentiment to a point, I think it doesn't take into account the Tyrell's (including Olenna's) ambition.  After all we are talking about a family that knew they were marrying Margaery into a loveless marriage with Renly.  While not on the same level as a potentially abusive marriage, it does go a bit into their ambition, and perhaps a bit into Margaery's own willingness to go along with the Tyrell's bid to power even at her own expense.

Let's go exactly into Sansa's thought processes about the danger Joffrey poses to Margaery:

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Yet the more she thought about it all, the more she wondered.  Joff might restrain himself for a few turns, perhaps as long as a year, but soon or late he will show his claws and when he does ... The realm might have a second Kingslayer, and there would be war inside the city, as men of the lion and the men of the rose made the gutters run red.

So let's assume that the Tyrell's thought processes do indeed mirror Sansa's.  Does that mean the Tyrell's would want to kill Joffrey off on the night of his wedding, after they are married but before they consummate the marriage?

That's the issue I have with killing Joffrey when he is killed.  The Tyrell's claim to power doesn't occur by marrying Margaery to one of the Baratheons/Lannisters.  Their claim to power is when Margaery gives birth to the heir of the throne.  

So if the Tyrell's have summed up the situation to the same extent that Sansa has, that Loras' presence will keep Joffrey restrained at least for a time, then I don't think that the Tyrells would want Joffrey dead on the night of his wedding.  My guess is their actual plan was for Margaery to be with child, the heir to the throne, before ridding themselves of Joffrey, in a manner that once again looks like an accident. 

Ridding themselves of Joffrey too early only gives them one other alternative, the one we see play out in the books.  It makes Margaery marry Tommen when he is still too young get Margaery with child.  

(Also Olenna's plans to travel to Highgarden shortly after the wedding makes me a bit suspicious that they planned Joffrey's death on the night of his wedding.  Granted she could be lying about travelling to Highgarden, or perhaps she could be concerned that suspicion would fall on her over Joffrey's death, but my thought is if the plan was to get Margaery a second marriage to the younger brother, than she knows she can't leave until that's accomplished).  

 

[John Suburbs]

On 5/1/2020 at 11:14 AM, Colonel Green said:

It's canon that all the specifics of the escape weren't worked out until she got the hairnet at the end of ACOK.

That's wholly different from what you're suggesting, that Littlefinger gave Sansa a poisoned hairnet with no idea who it was going to be used on, since Dontos' speech clearly indicates (in retrospect) who the target was.  You claimed that the plan changed because Dontos doesn't mention escaping mid-feast, but that's obviously because Sansa wasn't told in advance that Joffrey was going to be poisoned.

There was a complication of the plan from this point onward, that being Sansa being married to Tyrion, but that only happened because the Tyrells tried to plan to marry Sansa to Willas, unknowingly disrupting Littlefinger's plans to have her escape, and after this detail was relayed to Dontos Littlefinger had to foil it.

This is a good example of how you have to completely rewrite the text of the novels to support your theory.

There is no basis for the idea that Highgarden is a traditional hegemon or that the Tyrells are overwhelmingly fixated on maintaining this status against the Lannisters (if they were that concerned about the Lannisters, they needn't have backed them in the first place).  The Reach was certainly the largest kingdom in the pre-Conquest period, but it was not hegemonic (indeed, the pre-Conquest kingdoms were largely static, unrealistically so).  And it certainly hasn't been in the Targaryen period -- post-Rebellion, in particular, they seem to have been on the margins, which informs why Mace and co. are angling for a splashy marriage for Margaery.

What the text does tell us is that they are concerned about Joffrey.  And we know they have reason to.

Er, no, they do have it figured out, that's the point.  She has accurately figured out the same thing that they do.

Reflexively disbelieving everything he says is every bit as silly as reflexively believing everything he says.  And in this case, what he says has an enormous amount of independent proofs (most of them known to the reader but not to Sansa since they come from different POVs; indeed, for an event carried out by third parties, we actually have quite a lot of verification for the events of the Purple Wedding).

Since Tyrion had been arrested for treason and was awaiting trial at that point, as per the plan, Littlefinger had not failed at that point.  The plan only failed when he escaped.

Moreover, Littlefinger knew Joffrey was dead without being told about it, which makes it crystal clear that Joffrey was the target of the poison.  And he was too far away to hear the bells (the most common fix people offer for how he could have figured this out).

 

Yes, Margaery's involvement is quite obvious from the text.

No, Dontos' speech makes it clear that Joffrey was not the target at the time, nor was the poisoning supposed to take place during the feast. I'll post it again so you can read it for yourself, just before Dontos hands Sansa the hairnet:

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"The night of Joffrey's wedding. After the feast. All the necessary arrangements have been made. The Red Keep will be full of strangers. Half the court will be drunk and the other half will be helping Joffrey bed his bride. For a little while, you will be forgotten, and the confusion will be our friend."

So therefore, the target had not been determined, and there is no indication at all that Lady Olenna is part of this plot yet. In fact, if she was, then there would be no reason for her to confused by the "disturbing tales" about Joffrey, because the only person who told her he was anything by a sick little monkey, Littlefinger, has admitted that he lied. And then we have to wonder how a smart cookie like Lady O could be so stupid as to believe anything this known liar and double-crosser says from here, let alone to the point where his "plan" is for her to poison the chalice -- which itself was a gift from the Tyrells that only complicated the poisoning and brought unnecessary risk to Margaery -- in full view of no less than a thousand witnesses, and at a time when the entire Tyrell family minus one is in the throne room surrounded by Lannister guards. And where is the known liar and backstabber while all this is happening? Why, safe and sound out on his boat ready to collect his prize, or split to Braavos at that first sign that anything has gone wrong.

This is what I mean by the wine theory collapsing on itself all the time. Every point of fact, either in the text or the real world, disputes the wine, as does the motivations and actions of the plotters. Nobody is doing what they should be doing, and nothing is happening the way at should be happening, if the intent was to poison Joffrey with his wine. But everything lines up perfectly, to a T, with Tyrion and the pie.

There were plenty of options to prevent Sansa from aligning with the Tyrells. She already mistrusts them because of their nonchalance toward Joffrey, and Dontos immediately puts doubt in her mind by pointing out her claim. You're also assuming that all of Littlefinger's stash of strangler is on the hairnet, which would be yet another utterly idiotic move by one of the smartest people in the game. So the idea that he was willing to give up virgin Sansa for an imp-soiled Sansa simply because he was afraid is sketchy at best. The more accurate assessment is to recognize that LF can see how Tyrion, Lord of Winterfell, poses a serious threat to Highgarden and that he knows Lady O would see it too -- and this aligns their objectives to kill him.

It is canon that Highgarden is and has been the hegemon since the Dawn Age. They have the largest population, the largest army, the largest navy, the greatest food supply. And despite being a wide open country, the only time the Reach has fallen is when a series of bad marriages led to conflict among the banners and the Reach was invaded simultaneously by the westerlands, stormlands and Dorne. It's all there in the World Book. It is also canon that Tywin has extended his reach, through marriage, to dominion over the riverlands, stormlands, crownlands and the Iron Throne itself. With the north, he now has the resources to easily dominate the Reach's army and navy, plus several ports on the Narrow sea to boost his economic clout, and this upsets the balance of power that has favored Highgarden for thousands of years. This is all rock solid, undeniable fact. It's all there in the book.

They have no reason at all to be concerned about Joffrey. Show me one instance where he has even uttered a cross word to or about Margaery. I can show you several instances where he is pleased as punch to be marrying her instead of Sansa. This entire theory about Margaery's safety is made up out of thin air. He is not, nor has he any reason to be, displeased with her in any way, and Margaery is clever enough and seductive enough to keep it that way for a long, long time.

You keep forgetting one salient fact about Petyr's mention Joffrey's death on the boat:

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Abashed, Sansa bit her lip and huddled down in silence. The rest was rowing, rowing, rowing.

The eastern sky was vague with the first hint of dawn when Sansa finally saw a ghostly shape in the darkness ahead; a trading galley, her sails furled, moving slowly on a single bank of oars.

This is hours after the murder -- at least six, more likely eight, maybe as high as ten. LF has plenty of time to get a full report as to exactly what happened in the throne room, then head out to the rendezvous point by dawn. It would be absurd if he did not.

[John Suburbs]

On 5/1/2020 at 2:33 PM, Kaelthas said:

A few years of cooling down won't suffice. The north hates the Lannisters for murdering Eddard and Rob. Ruling the north will be a rough ride for Tyrion even with Sansa at his side. Without her-  think of all the the trouble Littlefinger has ruling the Vale, and multiply that by one hundred (the Lords of the Vale did not hate LF before).

Of course, the Lannisters can always rule the North by force (at the risk of getting backstabbed, should the opportunity arise). And over the span of several decades they might even gain some Loyalty.

But the fact that Tyrion was married to Sansa for a short time will not help the Lannisters much with that.

Sansa is the crucial Figure, Tyrion is of little consequence.

 

The plan is to subdue the north. That's the plan in any war. Remember, Stannis was not expected to move north, so it was going to be Tyrion, with Roose Bolton at his side, ridding the north of the ironmen, plus any wildlings that came across the Wall. That should be enough to put the father of Ned Stark's only grandchild in the good graces of the northern lords, and Wintefell will be garrisoned by Lannister soldiers, not northern ones.

But you are right that Tyrion as Lord of Winterfell is a short-term problem. The real threat is several generations down the line, when there are Lannister arses sitting in the high seats of Winterfell, Riverrun, Storm's End, Casterly Rock and the Iron Throne. This creates the same kind of extended family power bloc that Highgarden has maintained throughout the ages, making them vulnerable to a single house for the first time in history. Have you ever wondered why it was the riverlands that saw the constant warfare and invasion over the centuries while the Reach did not? The riverlands at least has rivers to provide some protection, while the Reach is league upon league of wide open farmlands and gently rolling hills. The only protection the Reach has is its people. It is by far the most populated realm and that allows it to raise the largest army, but only if there is political stability among the principal houses. This is why first the Gardeners and then the Tyrells set about forging marriage alliances with the Hightowers, Redwynes, and others, to cement these political ties by blood. The only time Highgarden has ever fallen, in fact, is when the Gardener king at the time made a series of unwise marriages that led to conflict among the banners and the Reach was invaded simultaneously by the westerlands, stormlands and Dorne. Every highborn child in the Reach would know this history and the consequences of disunion.

All the other great houses married their own banners as well, but as long as the Reach had the largest population to draw from the status quo remained in their favor. In the run-up to Robert's Rebellion, however, look what started to happen: Starks betrothed to Tullys, Starks betrothed to Baratheons, Lannisters and Martells negotiating marriages to Tullys and even Hightowers. Now suddenly, you have power blocs forming between the great houses and this does open the possibility that one of them could exceed Highgarden's military strength one day. This is why the Tyrell's supported the Mad King, not out of loyalty but because they had just as much to lose by this power bloc as he had. After the war, of course, the Tyrell's lost some lands and titles, but the big blow came from the fact that the Starks, Tullys and Arryns were now all intermarried, and Tywin had married his way to control the Iron Throne and, ultimately, Storm's End. Now, not only is another house on the rise, but it is led by a ruthless double-crossing warlord who burns his enemies' lands from horizon to horizon, murders smallfolk by the thousands, razes castles to the ground, and exterminates noble families, including children, for all time.

This is what keeps Lady Olenna up at night, not whether Margaery may someday get a black eye from Joffrey. And this is what the Game of Thrones as all about; acquiring, maintaining and utilizing power. This is the game that Lady O is playing, not the game of making Margaery happily ever after.

[John Suburbs]

On 5/1/2020 at 9:30 PM, M.Alhazred said:

It was the wine. Since strangler dissolves in liquid. 

In liquid, yes, but not only wine:

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The web of spun silver hung from her fingers, the fine metal glimmering softly, the stones black in the moonlight. Black amethysts from Assai. One of them was missing. Sansa lifted the net for a closer look. There was a dark smudge in the silver socket where the stone had fallen out.

Amethysts do not leave smudges behind, nor is it likely that someone dumped wine on Sansa's head without her knowing it. So this smudge was likely caused by heat, sweat and perhaps the oils in Sansa's hair. There is plenty of heat and oil and moisture in pie filling. And, of course, there was plenty of wine with the pie in Joffrey's throat just before he started choking -- approximately five seconds before, in fact, exactly like Cressen.

[John Suburbs]

49 minutes ago, Frey family reunion said:

While I agree with this sentiment to a point, I think it doesn't take into account the Tyrell's (including Olenna's) ambition.  After all we are talking about a family that knew they were marrying Margaery into a loveless marriage with Renly.  While not on the same level as a potentially abusive marriage, it does go a bit into their ambition, and perhaps a bit into Margaery's own willingness to go along with the Tyrell's bid to power even at her own expense.

Let's go exactly into Sansa's thought processes about the danger Joffrey poses to Margaery:

So let's assume that the Tyrell's thought processes do indeed mirror Sansa's.  Does that mean the Tyrell's would want to kill Joffrey off on the night of his wedding, after they are married but before they consummate the marriage?

That's the issue I have with killing Joffrey when he is killed.  The Tyrell's claim to power doesn't occur by marrying Margaery to one of the Baratheons/Lannisters.  Their claim to power is when Margaery gives birth to the heir of the throne.  

So if the Tyrell's have summed up the situation to the same extent that Sansa has, that Loras' presence will keep Joffrey restrained at least for a time, then I don't think that the Tyrells would want Joffrey dead on the night of his wedding.  My guess is their actual plan was for Margaery to be with child, the heir to the throne, before ridding themselves of Joffrey, in a manner that once again looks like an accident. 

Ridding themselves of Joffrey too early only gives them one other alternative, the one we see play out in the books.  It makes Margaery marry Tommen when he is still too young get Margaery with child.  

(Also Olenna's plans to travel to Highgarden shortly after the wedding makes me a bit suspicious that they planned Joffrey's death on the night of his wedding.  Granted she could be lying about travelling to Highgarden, or perhaps she could be concerned that suspicion would fall on her over Joffrey's death, but my thought is if the plan was to get Margaery a second marriage to the younger brother, than she knows she can't leave until that's accomplished).  

 

This whole business about the Tyrells afraid of what Loras might do is yet another example of the wine theory collapsing in upon itself. Margaery says Mace insisted that Loras be appointed to the KG (which LF later claims credit for, but who knows if that's true) specifically to protect Margaery from Joffrey. Then later, they decide they must kill Joffrey because Loras might do exactly what they put him there to do in the first place?

And secondly, when has Sansa figured out anything? She doesn't even realize when her own words are undermining the plots that are protecting her own life. Sansa understands nothing, and Petyr coming up with the same BS about Loras running amok if Joff gives Margy a black eye is about the most obvious lie he could concoct. But it's sheer nonsense. If they were worried about that, they never would have put him on the KG to begin with, and even then they would certainly sit him down beforehand and tell him not to do anything stupid even if Joffrey does turn on Margy -- which isn't likely to happen for months, if not years, long after Margaery has born the next heir to the throne and she can rule as regent upon Joff's death. Surely, unfettered political power over the entire realm is well worth the price of a few bruises and black eyes. It's certainly far better than serving merely as Tommen's consort five years from now.

And I think we can safely conclude that Lady O is lying about Sansa coming to Highgarden. Even under the wine theory, there is no way she does not know Sansa will escape in the confusion. Without that part of the plan, Lady O has absolutely no reason at all to trust LF when he first confesses to the lie that got Margy into this fix in the first place and now wants to make things right just out of the goodness of his heart. 

[Frey family reunion]

11 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

In liquid, yes, but not only wine:

Amethysts do not leave smudges behind, nor is it likely that someone dumped wine on Sansa's head without her knowing it. So this smudge was likely caused by heat, sweat and perhaps the oils in Sansa's hair. There is plenty of heat and oil and moisture in pie filling. And, of course, there was plenty of wine with the pie in Joffrey's throat just before he started choking -- approximately five seconds before, in fact, exactly like Cressen.

Correct and it is also apparent that the Strangler was meant to be used on someone while they were drinking and eating.

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They said a victim's face turned as purple as the little crystal seed from which his death was grown, but so too did a man choking on a morsel of food.

So if Littlefinger's plan was to to pin Joffrey's killing on Tyrion, thereby ridding himself of Tyrion, then he would not have wanted to use the Strangler.  The Strangler is used when you want people to believe that someone choked on his own food.

And indeed that is what appeared to be the case, up until Cersei accused Tyrion:

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Margaery Tyrell began to sob, and Tyrion heard her mother Lady Alerie saying, "He choked, sweetling.  He choked on the pie.  It was naught to do with you.  He choked.  We all saw."

 

[Frey family reunion]

4 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

And I think we can safely conclude that Lady O is lying about Sansa coming to Highgarden. Even under the wine theory, there is no way she does not know Sansa will escape in the confusion. Without that part of the plan, Lady O has absolutely no reason at all to trust LF when he first confesses to the lie that got Margy into this fix in the first place and now wants to make things right just out of the goodness of his heart. 

I agree with everything in your post, except for this bit.  I do think the Tyrells planned on bringing Sansa to Highgarden, but perhaps as early as that night, during the confusion. 

If indeed Littlefinger brought the Tyrells in on his hair net plot he may have also told them that he was going to bring Sansa to Highgarden.

What the Tyrells probably would not have been aware of, is Littlefinger's own plans for Sansa.  Which is why Littlefinger revealed the Tyrell's earlier plan to bring Sansa to Highgarden to the Lannisters. 

Both Littlefinger and Olenna had motives to want Tyrion dead and Sansa to flee King's Landing.  But I think that is where their goals divided.  I think Littlefinger was always planning on bringing Sansa to the Eyrie, while convincing the Tyrells that he would deliver her to Highgarden.

And if the Tyrells had their own plan to get Sansa to Highgarden which did not involve Littlefinger, than my guess is those plans went out the window, when Joffrey was killed as opposed to Tyrion.

 

[Hugorfonics]

33 minutes ago, Frey family reunion said:

I agree with everything in your post, except for this bit.  I do think the Tyrells planned on bringing Sansa to Highgarden, but perhaps as early as that night, during the confusion. 

If indeed Littlefinger brought the Tyrells in on his hair net plot he may have also told them that he was going to bring Sansa to Highgarden.

What the Tyrells probably would not have been aware of, is Littlefinger's own plans for Sansa.  Which is why Littlefinger revealed the Tyrell's earlier plan to bring Sansa to Highgarden to the Lannisters. 

Both Littlefinger and Olenna had motives to want Tyrion dead and Sansa to flee King's Landing.  But I think that is where their goals divided.  I think Littlefinger was always planning on bringing Sansa to the Eyrie, while convincing the Tyrells that he would deliver her to Highgarden.

And if the Tyrells had their own plan to get Sansa to Highgarden which did not involve Littlefinger, than my guess is those plans went out the window, when Joffrey was killed as opposed to Tyrion.

 

I agree. The way I see it is when Tyrion sent Petyr to win Tyrell in acok, there they decided to kill Tyrion. (It has to be then, Tyrion or Joff. And Sansa has to be brought up in the conversation. For one, she wears the hairnet, another reason is if Margery marries Joffrey then who doesn't marry Joffrey? )

Tyrells are Growing Strong, always looking for lunchtime. For them to save KL they want all they can get. 

What would LF want with Sansa anyway? Petyr knows hes getting Harrenhall, does he expect to garrison the largest castle in the world one maid at a time? I dont think anybody short of him and Lysa ever even thought he could have eyes on the Eyrie 

1 hour ago, John Suburbs said:

:This is hours after the murder -- at least six, more likely eight, maybe as high as ten. 

I was thinking like, 2 hours. Dawn can be early, like 4:30. What time was Joff murdered, after midnight no? What course were they on, one of the late ones. We see in Dunk&Egg that the bedding can be rather late 

Also Dontos says "not far" which sounds like 60 min tops

[Frey family reunion]

6 minutes ago, Hugorfonics said:

I agree. The way I see it is when Tyrion sent Petyr to win Tyrell in acok, there they decided to kill Tyrion. (It has to be then, Tyrion or Joff. And Sansa has to be brought up in the conversation. For one, she wears the hairnet, another reason is if Margery marries Joffrey then who doesn't marry Joffrey? )

Yes, and Tyrion doesn't even have to have been discussed then.  The conversation would simply have been assuming we can convince the Lannisters to marry Joffrey to Margaery as opposed to Sansa, we still have to be prepared for the Lannisters marrying Sansa to someone else.  For all we know, they could have envisioned Lancel as opposed to Tyrion.  But regardless they had to be in a position to free Sansa from whomever the Lannisters tried to force her to marry.

[Hugorfonics]

17 minutes ago, Frey family reunion said:

Yes, and Tyrion doesn't even have to have been discussed then.  The conversation would simply have been assuming we can convince the Lannisters to marry Joffrey to Margaery as opposed to Sansa, we still have to be prepared for the Lannisters marrying Sansa to someone else.  For all we know, they could have envisioned Lancel as opposed to Tyrion.  But regardless they had to be in a position to free Sansa from whomever the Lannisters tried to force her to marry.

Tyrion is the son, Lancels only a nephew. I think Petyr could assume Tyrion was the lucky bachelor. (Also hes a known enemy, the knife)

Petyr can see into the future pretty well, he knew that if Lysa kills Jon then Ned would be made Hand, for example. But yea I agree, if Tyrion said no then the hairnet would be for Lancel, Osmound Kettleblack or Moonboy for all I know

[Colonel Green]

On 5/2/2020 at 10:23 AM, Walda said:

The lemon cream on the pie, which was put in front of Sansa (a fact that neither her drunk exfiance or her drunk husband noticed.) 

Put a purple dissolving crystal in a white/yellow cream and see what happens.

5 hours ago, Frey family reunion said:

Let's go exactly into Sansa's thought processes about the danger Joffrey poses to Margaery:

So let's assume that the Tyrell's thought processes do indeed mirror Sansa's.  Does that mean the Tyrell's would want to kill Joffrey off on the night of his wedding, after they are married but before they consummate the marriage?

That's the issue I have with killing Joffrey when he is killed.  The Tyrell's claim to power doesn't occur by marrying Margaery to one of the Baratheons/Lannisters.  Their claim to power is when Margaery gives birth to the heir of the throne.  

So if the Tyrell's have summed up the situation to the same extent that Sansa has, that Loras' presence will keep Joffrey restrained at least for a time, then I don't think that the Tyrells would want Joffrey dead on the night of his wedding.  My guess is their actual plan was for Margaery to be with child, the heir to the throne, before ridding themselves of Joffrey, in a manner that once again looks like an accident. 

Ridding themselves of Joffrey too early only gives them one other alternative, the one we see play out in the books.  It makes Margaery marry Tommen when he is still too young get Margaery with child.  

It's a big plot point in AFFC that Margaery still being a virgin speeds her remarriage to Tommen, which is why Cersei is convinced that she lied about it and tries to contrive charges against her on those grounds.

More generally, I don't think it makes sense to wait until Margaery gets pregnant, because you have no idea how long that will take (it's not a situation where they could reliably bank on her getting pregnant immediately), so if you're waiting around for a baby to be conceived (and delivered alive), you might be waiting a good while.

Likewise, there's no real downside to waiting a few years for Tommen once the immediate threat is dealt with.  They've got time, as far as anybody can reasonably reckon.

Moreover, acting now means that they're less likely to be suspected of anything untoward.

4 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

No, Dontos' speech makes it clear that Joffrey was not the target at the time, nor was the poisoning supposed to take place during the feast. I'll post it again so you can read it for yourself, just before Dontos hands Sansa the hairnet:

So therefore, the target had not been determined, and there is no indication at all that Lady Olenna is part of this plot yet. 

No, that's Dontos obscuring that there's going to be an assassination.

That scene, in fact, makes it clear that there was a target and the target was Joffrey:

"Lovelier than you know, sweet child. It's magic, you see. It's justice you hold. It's vengeance for your father."

We (and Sansa) don't know what that means in the moment, but its meaning is crystal clear in retrospect -- Dontos knows, but isn't saying, that they are going to kill Joffrey, who executed Sansa's father.  That's a sign of GRRM's skill at foreshadowing and employing clues.

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There were plenty of options to prevent Sansa from aligning with the Tyrells. She already mistrusts them because of their nonchalance toward Joffrey, and Dontos immediately puts doubt in her mind by pointing out her claim. You're also assuming that all of Littlefinger's stash of strangler is on the hairnet, which would be yet another utterly idiotic move by one of the smartest people in the game. So the idea that he was willing to give up virgin Sansa for an imp-soiled Sansa simply because he was afraid is sketchy at best. The more accurate assessment is to recognize that LF can see how Tyrion, Lord of Winterfell, poses a serious threat to Highgarden and that he knows Lady O would see it too -- and this aligns their objectives to kill him.

No, there weren't plenty of options.  Dontos tried to scare her off the Tyrells, but he failed, so he doesn't have any other cards to play.  After meeting Dontos to tell him the escape is off, she stops meeting with him entirely.

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It is canon that Highgarden is and has been the hegemon since the Dawn Age. 

No, it's not.  Being the single-largest country is not the same as being a hegemon.  The Reach has not had the power to direct and dominate its neighbours in that manner.  And as I said, it has certainly not been hegemonic under the Targaryens.

And if Lady Olenna was that afraid of Tywin Lannister, it would make more sense to assassinate him.  But they don't do that, because there's no reason to; he's a man they can comfortably do business with.

Killing Tyrion also doesn't even solve the problem you think the Tyrells are obsessed with, because Sansa would just be married to another Lannister.

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They have no reason at all to be concerned about Joffrey. Show me one instance where he has even uttered a cross word to or about Margaery. I can show you several instances where he is pleased as punch to be marrying her instead of Sansa. This entire theory about Margaery's safety is made up out of thin air.  He is not, nor has he any reason to be, displeased with her in any way, and Margaery is clever enough and seductive enough to keep it that way for a long, long time.

No, they have plenty of reason to be concerned about Joffrey, because Joffrey is a psychopath and will inevitably turn to violence.  Sansa understands his nature.  She dismisses her own concerns because she doesn't trust her own insights and assumes the Tyrells know better -- which you, bizarrely enough, think we're meant to take at face value, rather than recognizing it's GRRM's narrative irony and demonstration of both Sansa's growth and her lack of self-confidence.  Theme, character, and narrative importance are all vital in GRRM's storytelling, and all those things are wholly absent from the pie theory, which serves no narrative purpose.

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You keep forgetting one salient fact about Petyr's mention Joffrey's death on the boat:

This is hours after the murder -- at least six, more likely eight, maybe as high as ten. LF has plenty of time to get a full report as to exactly what happened in the throne room, then head out to the rendezvous point by dawn. It would be absurd if he did not.

I don't forget it at all.  GRRM goes out of his way to show that Littlefinger's boat was nowhere near the harbour.  If he wanted to set up a twist that Littlefinger had heard the bells, he could have had the boat close by and basically no readers would have noticed the difference.  But instead he went the opposite way, which requires you to come up with yet another unsubstantiated workaround.

[corbon]

7 hours ago, Frey family reunion said:

While I agree with this sentiment to a point, I think it doesn't take into account the Tyrell's (including Olenna's) ambition.  After all we are talking about a family that knew they were marrying Margaery into a loveless marriage with Renly.  While not on the same level as a potentially abusive marriage, it does go a bit into their ambition, and perhaps a bit into Margaery's own willingness to go along with the Tyrell's bid to power even at her own expense.

Let's go exactly into Sansa's thought processes about the danger Joffrey poses to Margaery:

So let's assume that the Tyrell's thought processes do indeed mirror Sansa's.  Does that mean the Tyrell's would want to kill Joffrey off on the night of his wedding, after they are married but before they consummate the marriage?

That's the issue I have with killing Joffrey when he is killed.  The Tyrell's claim to power doesn't occur by marrying Margaery to one of the Baratheons/Lannisters.  Their claim to power is when Margaery gives birth to the heir of the throne.  

I think thats got a pretty obvious resolution.
 

7 hours ago, Frey family reunion said:

So if the Tyrell's have summed up the situation to the same extent that Sansa has, that Loras' presence will keep Joffrey restrained at least for a time, then I don't think that the Tyrells would want Joffrey dead on the night of his wedding.  My guess is their actual plan was for Margaery to be with child, the heir to the throne, before ridding themselves of Joffrey, in a manner that once again looks like an accident. 

The plan you enunciate, or a variation of it, was indeed probably their initial plan. Probably even longer term than you suggest though - Loras wasn't there to kill Joffey, he was just insurance for good behaviour, a check to ensure the power imbalance between King and Queen wouldn't be used against Margaery.

But once they actually got to see Joffrey live, talk to Sansa, see his manner and how he is, they realised that that plan is far far too dangerous for Margaery.  Loras won't be a barrier to Joffrey, who simply isn't capable of long term restraint. So their initial plan is now a recipe for disaster, both personal and civil.
They only have one way out and thats to kill Joffrey before the marriage is consummated, as that keeps Margaery free for Tommen, and the safer, surer long term plan again. Plus Tommen is young enough to be more influenced by his clever wife than Joffrey, so its actually better anyway. A Tommen-Margaery child is more likely to grow up Tyrell favouring vs Lannister favouring (the same way Joffrey grew up Lannister favouring vs Baratheon favouring) than a Joffrey-Margaery child is, I think thats plain for anyone to see.

7 hours ago, Frey family reunion said:

Ridding themselves of Joffrey too early only gives them one other alternative, the one we see play out in the books.  It makes Margaery marry Tommen when he is still too young get Margaery with child.  

Which is an infinitely better plan anyway, with none of the risk and a stronger payoff.

 

[Frey family reunion]

3 hours ago, corbon said:

Which is an infinitely better plan anyway, with none of the risk and a stronger payoff.

Ok, I think you guys are just throwing me softballs now.  

So, Margaery gets Tommen, but since Tommen is still under the control of his mother, Cersei, this means that Margaery now has to compete with Cersei.  

And this leads to Margaery, being imprisoned, stripped, examined, and charged with fornication and infidelity, the sentence if she is convicted, being death.  Her friends and cousins are likewise imprisoned and some are tortured.

As it stands now, Margaery sits in jail while she awaits her trial.  Her father is having to rush back to King's Landing to try and win his daughter's release.  And Margaery's fate is going to be in the hands of the Faith.

And Margaery has no child, no heir to the throne and no real bargaining strength, other than her father's army.  So the danger that is "feared" if Margaery was married to Joffrey, which is warfare between the Roses and the Lions looks like it may still come to pass.

So no payoff and apparently an even greater risk.  Instead of having to deal with cruel, yet stupid Joffrey, Margaery had to deal with Cersei who in her own way proves even crueler than her first born.

[corbon]

17 minutes ago, Frey family reunion said:

So, Margaery gets Tommen, but since Tommen is still under the control of his mother, Cersei, this means that Margaery now has to compete with Cersei.  

No more so than with Joffrey.

17 minutes ago, Frey family reunion said:

And this leads to Margaery, being imprisoned, stripped, examined, and charged with fornication and infidelity, the sentence if she is convicted, being death.  Her friends and cousins are likewise imprisoned and some are tortured.

No one predicted the rise of the Church.

Cersei being as crazy as she is was an unknown. Joffrey being as psychopathic as he is was a known, at least once they found out.

 

[Frey family reunion]

27 minutes ago, corbon said:

No more so than with Joffrey.

No one predicted the rise of the Church.

Cersei being as crazy as she is was an unknown. Joffrey being as psychopathic as he is was a known, at least once they found out.

 

No, Tommen is in fact more under the control of Cersei than Joffrey was.  But the primary consideration is that Margaery can not conceive a child with Tommen and won't be able to for quite a while.  And that's the real problem.

You have to keep in mind that this is a power play for the Tyrells.  And they are obviously willing to put Margaery in a certain amount of danger to obtain power.  It was risky marrying Margaery to Renly while Renly was openly in warfare with the throne, with really no legal justification for claim.   Margaery could very well have ended up being killed as a traitor to the throne.  Which may have been her fate (Either from the Lannisters or Stannis) had Littlefinger not negotiated the agreement between the Tyrells and the Lannisters to join their defense.

So again, the Tyrells put Margaery at risk for a power play.  They may put her in more immediate risk by marrying her to Joffrey, but the plus side, is that she can immediately start to try and get pregnant.  And that's when the Tyrell's power grab happens.  When Margaery becomes the mother to the heir of the throne.  And if Joffrey happens to meet an unfortunate end, shortly thereafter, then Margaery becomes the mother to the King (or perhaps even the Queen).  And Cersei's power shifts to Margaery.

But in marrying Margaery to Tommen, the power remains with the Lannisters, and with Tywin dead, that means the power remains with Cersei.  And to make matters worse, there is no quick way to shift the power to the Tyrells.  They have to wait for Tommen to come of age to consumate their marriage and get Margaery with child.  Until then, she is at Cersei's tender mercy.

Which doesn't seem to bother Margaery too much (in much the same way that marrying Joffrey didn't seem to bother her) because of Loras' presence.  Whether out of naivety or not, Loras was Margaery's security blanket, whether that be security from Joffrey or Cersei.  When Loras leaves, Margaery's confidence leaves as well.  This is when she realizes just how vulnerable her position is.  

And she has a right to be concerned.  Because being the wife of a child doesn't give her any real power.  

(And you have to keep in mind that there was no guarantee that the Lannisters would have consented to marrying Tommen to  Margaery.  That was never part of their negotiation.  Which makes it suspect to me that Olenna was talking about leaving King's Landing shortly after the wedding.  If the plan was to kill Joffrey, she would have known that she would have had to stay in King's Landing to negotiate a second marriage.)

ETA: you have to keep in mind that it wasn't the Church that brought these charges against Margaery, it was Cersei.  This situation would have remained, whether or not the High Sparrow took over.  The only difference is probably that the previous Septons were in the Lannisters back pocket.  So Cersei would not have joined Margaery in prison.